 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Morning Markets Kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good morning, everybody. Happy Friday, 9.06 a.m. Friday morning. We have the jobs number and quite a number, folks. Let's get into the headline before we do the Marcus. 336,000 jobs added in month. You also had revisions to the prior month, to the upside as well. There's your number. They were looking for a number far below 336. We have yield spiking markets pulling back unemployment rate holding at 3.8%. Average hourly earnings rising 4.2% in September from a year earlier down slightly from 4.3% in August. That was slower than last year, but well above the pre-pandemic rate that's putting it lightly. Wage growth could be the only slowing factor in this jobs number. Nonetheless, the economy's on fire. Man, the jobs market is on fire. Market a little bit worried that inflation is gonna persist on those numbers. We've got a pullback in the S&Ps right now. You drop about 40 points from where you were trading at prior to that number at 830, 4293. You spike lower, you get to a low of 4242, and we're chopping around right near those lows right now at 4253. NASDAQ 100, we're off by 1.1%. The Dow, off by almost 200 right now. You get the Russell, off by 13. You jump over to crude trading at 8234. You jump over to the gold contract. Little volatility on gold down to 1823, back to 1831. Gotta jump over to the dollar, right? We have yield spiking. We have the dollar spiking as well. That's gonna put pressure on the gold contract to the negative side. That's why you see gold pulling back a little bit of a reverberation. Almost to the 107 level in the dollar index. We're trading at 106.75 right now. And let's jump to yields. Okay, as we pull it up, the 10 year right now. We are talking about a yield in the 10 year, 4.84%. 4.84% the yield in the 10 year right now, 106.16. We were above 107, coming into that number. But more interesting than that, right? And here, taking a look at the entire curve right now. In terms of the two year, we're up seven basis points. Mammoth move, back to 5.10. We have been above that. Check out the 30 year. Up 13 basis points to 5.02. I think we're as high as 5.03. Haven't seen those levels since 2007, 16 years or so. In the 10 year right now, sitting at 4.84%. Up 13 basis points on that move. Dramatic moves to put it lightly. And the day is young to put it lightly as well. Market's bouncing a bit. Pretty much testing the lows we got of early Wednesday in this market. Now, me interesting, we're coming into an area. We've talked about this area since about 4,400. When you started making this move down, dramatic move back on September 20th and 21st. You make that move. And we have an area of confluence out here in this market from about 4,200 to an area of about 4,140. That also correlates to the area that was resistance in the market at about a price point of 4,170, something like that. We make a high back in December of 4,180. You come back up and make a high of 4,136 back in February and then you chop around pretty close to that level. You're at what, 4,198? 4,206. And sorry, I was wrong. It's 4,208 was the high in February. I was looking at the low of that bar. 4,208 and 4,180. You see 4,180, 4,208, what's the high over here? 4,198, look at how close this was to that 4,200 area for so long, 4,206, 4,227, 4,243. And finally you pull back to 4,178 and this thing takes off in June. Now you already took off from March, but we're approaching that level, right? We're one acceleration on the open on a day like today away from that level of 4,200. You get to 4,200. You're potentially facing some resistance that you're getting into. That's a 3,82 pullback of the entire move from last October, right? From a price point of the cycle low of 3,500, up to 4,634, this market is coming into the 3,82 which also correlates to the area that was support could turn into resistance. So we're 40 or 50 points away from that. Maybe we get to 4,208. Something like that price point. Put it on your radar, because it's possible, man. That was a quick 200 points from where we were at 4,400. Yeah, down to 4,256. And I don't think this is gonna be the day where you get a reprieve on this type of a number. And the jobs games were brought. That's the other part of this. Yeah, and there's, as I stated, right? Wage gains slowing offer the silver lining for the Fed in the hot jobs data. I don't know how you add 3,36 with revisions. I mean, you're talking about the market, just added 400,000 plus jobs. I think you add them up. You add the net revisions. You add the number that we got for September. You look at the expectation, and it is a big number in a big way, man. Yeah, and there's almost too much to get into in this live feed. They got a lot of great stuff on live feed. If you're really looking for great news folks, Bloomberg. It is not cheap, but boy, they have some great coverage across the board. The journalists as well. Those are the two that I usually go to in the morning. Yeah, hours work. They just have so much information that you can break down in these numbers. The three month average, right? 266,000 the highest since March. We are well above the natural growth rate of the economy. Folks, you can't add 340,000 jobs in a month without putting pressure on the economy in a hot jobs market. 10 year yield exceeds 4.88% highest since 2007 as well. There's some pretty fascinating stuff going on in this market. Seems like 10 year might be on its way to 5%, right? Yeah, and that's the number you're gonna see. Wage gains slowing to 4.2% from a year ago. Now in August, it was at 4.3%. But we are in a sticky category between four and five, right? When you talk about inflation, we might be stuck at like four. People would probably argue. Some people could argue that it's below 4% right now. Some could argue it's above 4% right now. Nobody actually knows exactly where it is. Remember that. Whenever anybody telling you is telling you where inflation is, the only thing they can be certain of is where it was in the past. Actually can't be certain of where it is right at this moment right now or in the future. That is an opinion. You can have a strong argument that's built on facts to form your opinion. Still an opinion though. Nobody really knows exactly where it is today. Just like the natural R star, right? A lot of talk about the R star. Nobody knows where R star is right now. Okay, you can take data and figure it out where it was in the past. Wage gains at 4.2%. That's a sticky number, man. And yeah, we saw in the ADP number, you change jobs. You're still at 9% year over year changing jobs. So people aren't exactly fearing a recession, fearing the impact of the pressures of a constrained wallet or fearing all of that and jumping to the first job. There's still availability out there which is gonna put pressure to the upside and 4.2% is where wage numbers are right now. Crazier things have happened though. We come down, we test the lows of the overnight session coming into Wednesday morning. And just like that, you've got markets, 14 points off the low, still off about 3.25% on the S&Ps. NASDAQ 100 off about 1% right now. Stay tuned folks, we got a lot to talk about. Back in three minutes. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. 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Let's see how some of the big dogs are doing this morning. Apple drops about $2 on that news. They clawback some of the losses. You're still off by more than a dollar coming into the opening bell. Amazon shares are gonna be off by almost $2 to $124 right now. You jump to Microsoft shares, trained down about $3 to $3.60. We jump over to Tesla. Now, Tesla, they got their own deal going on this morning. They're cutting prices again. Tesla, though, they are gonna trade with the market, of course. They are a growth stock. They're off by $7 this morning as the NASDAQ 100 taking it on the chin. Tesla trading down at $253. And we jump over to Tesla. Excuse me, where'd I just go? Oh, I just do. Excuse me, here it is. So Tesla cuts the Model 3 and Model Y prices in the US after car deliveries fall. Yet again, they cut some of the prices, the Model 3 and Y versions in the US. The starting price for the Model 3, $389, down from $40,240. So you're talking about, what, $13, $1400? It's not nothing to put it one way. What is that? That's a 3% cut on top of cuts, on top of cuts, on top of cuts, right? The long range fell to from $472 to $459. So that's about $1250, exactly. And you get the Model 3 performance, not enough $2,200 bucks. The Model Y performance sport utility vehicle now is at $525, down from $545, so $2,000 there. The latest round of price cuts comes just days after Tesla reported third quarter deliveries, 435,000 vehicles, missed expectations. They put the fall down to factory upgrades, which cause manufacturing sites to have downtime. Nonetheless, I mean, it seems like they have a demand problem going on, right? As a consumer, that might be a good thing if you're actually in the market for Tesla. It is a good thing, man. You're getting Tesla's at a lot more affordable price than you were at the beginning of the year. Doesn't seem like that's gonna be over yet too. Well, I mean, you could see that that may wane if Ford and GM start suffering in terms of their supply, as that pain just is not stopping. You're testing the recent lows on Ford. That's on a daily basis. Yesterday, right now you're down to about 1180. You jump over to GM, even worse, well below the lows that we had prior, $30, 31 cents. You look longer term. Wild stuff, man, like that. Wild stuff, that chart, to put it lightly, right? A crisis of 2008, 2009. Okay, what else do we got going on in this market? Let's jump around. Let's talk yields, let's keep talking it. The 5% bond market means pain is heading every one's way. Now, we talked about yesterday, which I found interesting. You have so little demand for all this paper going out that you have a historical high difference between where the 10-year treasury rate is, which this morning is approaching 4.85% and where a 30-year mortgage rate is. And sometimes it would be two to 2.5% above where the 10% is, okay? So if the 10%, let's just say the 10% is going to 5% right now. It's not quite there yet. 10% treasury, excuse me. US Treasury, 10-year US Treasury is going to about 5% right now. You'd see mortgages at seven. We've already seen mortgages at seven for an extended period of time because you have a larger gap between where the 10-year treasury is and where a 30-year mortgage rate is for a residential customer, retail customer. As a result of that, do some shopping around, okay? Because rates are varying right now where they are. But guess what? It's gonna matter for everybody, man, because we're just going higher and higher. There's gonna be less demand in that market. And this is a reversal from what even people were expecting six months ago. And we see how out of whack things can get when even some of the best banks like Silicon Valley, and they aren't the best bank anymore, but they were a bank that was managing folks over $200 billion in assets, okay? And I'm jumping back to yields here. But you can see how this market has defied where a lot of people thought things were gonna go. Remember the conversation and where things were just six months ago in April? You had the 30-year trading right then at 1.34. You want your money back on the 30-year, they're giving you 1.09. You've lost $24, and just to get it exactly, right? If you want your money back, you lost $24 of 134, you're down 17.91%. If you were buying that 30-year in April saying, you know what? Yeah, what was priced into the Fed at that point, right? Was it, I think at that point in time, everyone was saying, hey, how is this working right now? The market is pricing in that we're getting cuts before the end of this year. And the Fed is saying that's not even likely. Well, look what happened, okay? And I looked at this chart today for the first time and actually said, maybe we'll come back and test that channel line, right? That was the channel line that we broke into when the Fed started raising interest rates. You get out of that area, you test it, you do pull back. Maybe we got one more giant thrust to lower rates, man. And maybe that's where we test that channel line and maybe that is where we get a bounce. But boy, right now you're talking about the 30-year. Watch this though. I'm gonna put the 30-year on a monthly and watch how easy this might be. The 30-year right now is at 109. To get to that line, we need to get to about, even call it 100, okay? Call it 100. So we need to move down nine points, not nine basis points, nine full points in the 30-year. But guess what? Since the beginning of September, the 30-year is down 12 points. Since the beginning of October, it's October 6th, the 30-year is down four points. So we are that close to actually testing that line. So things can change quickly. And I found myself even thinking today, right? On the 30-year. So here's 2020. Even you go back to 2021 when the market's on fire, there's stimulus everywhere. The banks have a lot of capital. The 30-year is trading in between 152 and 161. Now imagine the 30-year yield today, okay? Getting back to the yield curve for a moment. Can we find it? There we go. The 30-year today is at 5%, easy math, okay? The 10-year is at 4.83. The two-year right now is 5.08. The 30-year is at 5%, exactly. Now imagine folks, you ran a bank and imagine you got a one-time generational acceleration in deposits. Never seen it before. The government is providing stimulus like we've never seen before. We have a generational pandemic that's caused life to change dramatically overnight. Everybody has a lot of money. The market's going through the roof. They're putting money with you because they're raising so much money. And you say to yourself, you know what? I'm gonna give the US government my money because they buy in 30-year treasuries, right? They're basically subsidizing the debt of the US government at a time when the 30-year was at 1%, 2%, something negligible, okay? Now imagine that in the context of potentially the government shutting down all this stuff, giving that and just saying, don't worry, it's okay. I'll hold it till maturity. And the point is, look where we are now. You didn't pull back slightly. You went from 164 to 110, man, and we might not even be done. And you put this thing on a longer-term basis, 110, the 30-year traded below 110 for many years and many reasonable years, folks, my high school and my college years. Things seemed okay then. We're coming back for the open. Markets clawing back the losses. We'll see where we go. Come on back. Currencies, commodities, and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex report. 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Currencies, commodities, and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex report. Teddy Kegstad breaks down the forex markets every Monday using his 30-plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures, forex, stocks, and options. Teddy releases his weekly Tiger Forex report every Monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs, including the Dollar Index, the Euro Dollar, Pound Dollar, Dollar Swiss, Dollar Yen, as well as many more. And he also has weekly coverage of the crude oil market and the 30-year T-bonds as they both influence forex markets tremendously. When you sign up for the Tiger Forex report, you also gain instant access to Teddy's 60-minute webinar archive he just hosted, forex strategies, and fundamentals, what is behind the Tiger Forex report. 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Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN. Educating investors. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV. Welcome back folks, we get stock market open. We have markets in negative territory, but they claw back a decent level, man. You got 25 points back. You basically got half the sell-off back coming into the open. It's gonna be an interesting day, folks. We'll see where the first move on the open is. First move pre-market is lower prices, we know. First move is not always the one that carries. The opening bell is always an important one as well as a digestion. Real supply equals real demand. We got markets right now off by $20. 6-10% in the red for the S&Ps, NASDAQ 100 off by 7-10%. You see, we claw back 100 points of losses in the pre-market. Gonna have to keep our eye on the dollar index. Quite a pullback as well, right? Mammoth moves, man. You're talking about 700 ticks up, 400 ticks lower, right? 106.974, you almost get to 107. Just like that, we're at 106.60. Mammoth moves in the dollar index, correlating of course to Mammoth. Mammoth moves in yields right now. We drop a full point in the 10-year. We get back about 12 points, basis points, up to 106.17 right now. And as I mentioned, dealing with some lofty yields, we get the S&P. All things considered, not too far off of where we were. I mean, folks, yesterday at one o'clock in the afternoon, things were pretty good in this market and that's right where we're trading at. Okay, that's a one-minute chart I had up there, putting it on at 10-minute. You see pre-market, we got pretty close. To those overnight lows, Tuesday to Wednesday with the S&P only off by 19, 18 make it points to right now. We're gonna go green today. We're gonna go green by the time this segment's over and the next eight minutes, we have volatility. Let's see how the VIX is trading right now. Didn't even make it to 20. We're still at 19 lofty levels compared to where we are recently. All right, breaking down some of the numbers in that jobs report in terms of where the jobs lie. From a sector perspective, leisure and hospitality, led with 96,000 new jobs. Other gainers included government, 73,000, healthcare, 41,000 and professional scientific and technical services, 29,000. Motion picture and sound recording jobs fell by 5,000 down 45,000 since May. Service related industries contributed 234,000 to the total jobs growth. Goods producing industries added just 29,000, okay? They talk about average hourly earnings. So average hourly earnings in the leisure and hospitality industry flat on the month actually. I mean, they added some serious jobs there, but flat on the month though up 4.7% from a year ago. Private sector added 263,000, the ADP number is 89, but we talked about the revisions, okay? So August's gain is now 227, up 40,000 from the public prior estimate, July went to 236 from 157, combined the two revisions, 119,000 net gains for August and for July. So you add 336, you got 120,000 in revisions. That's what, 436, 555, that would be, yeah, no, excuse me, 455. That would be like if you add the net revisions to July and August, you add them on to top of the September number, that would be like September coming in at 455. Yeah, man with numbers, man, in there, not putting it lightly. Yeah, big numbers, man. I don't know how this market's gonna shake it off today, but it's doing it right now. We're off by 16 right now. The market is forward-looking and it's had quite a little pullback coming into those numbers. September 15th, we're at 4,600 and change, and we're trading at 4,200 and change right now. But boy, things seem a little sticky right now and on the jobs front, I don't see how inflation goes away when, I mean, folks, that's a 455,000 job number, 455. That's the net number we found out today versus prior months. Now, yeah, there were revisions to the prior months which is not all happening in the last 30 days, but that's almost half a million more people that are working that we know of this month as opposed to 30 days ago. Don't see inflation going down on those numbers, man. Okay, what else do we have pulled up? Let's jump around. Talking about yields, the last part of this conversation, I told you I was gonna check on CD rates. Now, I imagine that these will be going up ahead of tomorrow. I wouldn't be buying a CD today. I would probably wait and buy one on Monday, buy one on Tuesday, you'll be okay. I mean, look at the tenure, man. Look at these lows, right? Can't help but talk about it, man. I mean, even the tenure over a period of five months, you just lost 10 points, not basis points, 10 points. You think you're being safe buying a 10-year treasury? Well, over a period of five months, you just lost 8% of your capital, wild stuff, man. So the yield on a five-year ladder right now, 5.13%. Now, that's not getting recalibrated in the moment, okay? That's your brokerage purchasing CDs through a brokerage account, which are FDIC-insured banks that you have access to. 5.13, that's not calibrating live factoring in all those yields. Those are real banks pushing out CD offers, right? That you can take advantage of. So give it some time to calibrate. Still well above 5%, but we did see 5.15 at one point. And the reason why I bring up the five-year ladder is you get your one, two, three, four, and five-year CD, okay? The one-year right now is pushing about 5.45. The two-year is 5.35. The three-year is 5.1. The four-year is 4.9. And a five-year CD is available at 4.85. You take all of those, it gives you an APY of 5.13%. And you don't have as much duration risk there because you have spread yourself over a short-term curve of five years, right? But you still have the ability every 12 months to go out and reset the interest rate that you're getting, which is going to correlate to the interest rate, the inflation rate. So every year, one of those ladders rolls off. You take that money, you either use it or you roll it back into another five-year CD. That way you have them going every single year. Inflation goes up. Interest rates are gonna go up with it. In 12 months, you get to access that interest rate market yet again. Inflation goes down. Interest rates are gonna go down. That's gonna hurt the interest rates that you're gonna get when you buy your next five-year CD. But guess what? That's okay because the inflation rate has gone down. So your real rate of return is closer to what you need. So that's why there's less duration risk. You could just go out right now and say, you know what? I think I'm just gonna go out and I'm just gonna get myself a five-year CD at 4.85% because I don't trust the ability of myself to go back out at a shorter-term basis, but you're exposing yourself because if inflation roars, what do you do then? Right? You're saying maybe, you know, the five-year, when I reinvest that one year in a year, maybe the five-year is about to crash to 2%, right? Maybe we're gonna have another crash. Well, if that's the case, you don't need to be earning 5% because your real rate of return isn't gonna have to keep up with inflation. Talked a lot about yields, man. But yields, you know, we've been talking a lot about yields as we've gotten a mammoth move in yields at a time when people thought the move was probably gonna happen the other way. You don't see moves like this often, folks. On a 10-year trading from 140, I mean, imagine people getting sucked into this market, man, at a time during a pandemic saying, you know what? I want nothing to do with stocks. I'm gonna go find myself treasuries. I'm gonna find myself government securities. It's important to realize what you're buying, like the banks, right? They were just playing games. Okay, there's your 30-year. You're just parking generational wealth into 30-year treasuries saying everything will be fine. I'm never gonna need to sell them. The capital losses over a two-year period, astounding on those. All right, folks, stay tuned. We still got a lot to talk about. S&P's back to negative 26. We'll be right back, folks. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. 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We jump over to the Big Dog Apple off about eight-tenths percent right now, Microsoft shares trading down about a third of a percent. We jump over to Tesla, 2.9 percent. On Tesla shares, we jump over to NVIDIA, negative 1.1 percent. See how some of those car companies are doing forward off about six-tenths percent, GM, basically flat. We jumped to some of the airlines, American, off about four-tenths percent, Delta, slightly in the positive, JetBlue. I was looking at potentially a JetBlue fight, man, this is sharp, right? Look at this thing, man. I don't know. From flying back to Boston, in the next 30 or 60 days, is JetBlue gonna be around? Look at this chart, man. Man, 22 bucks down to $4 for JetBlue. I haven't flown JetBlue in a long time. They are one of the best airlines flying from Tampa to Boston, although there's alternatives for sure. I'll tell you, folks, you're looking for flights, man. Spirit Airlines, yeah, it was like 60 bucks round trip. It's like $26 each way on Spirit. And Spirit gets a lot of hate, okay? But boy, they can take a lot of hate if you're charging $25 to $30 each way. I'm not lying, I was looking at flights. All right, now here's the kicker. Is that if you want any type of a bag, it's 35 bucks, so the cheapest way you're getting on the flight is 60 bucks, but if you can somehow figure out a way to travel with just needing like a pocket book or a man bag, call it what you want. I'm not talking about a carry-on that you would put in the overhead or underneath your seat, right? I'm talking about the pocket book. Talk about 30 bucks each way. Think about that. It is cheaper than an Uber. Yeah, and listen, you're six, four, man. Good luck, Jimmy, on Spirit. You get what you pay for in life, right? But I couldn't believe that it was cheaper. Folks, that's cheaper than what I would pay to the airport in an Uber, and I live 15 minutes from Tampa Airport to South Tampa, okay? I'm gonna pull that up in the next break, man, because maybe Spirit should send me, I mean, I want a whole row, if I'm on Spirit, no. Anyway, for what it's worth, check out that chart, man, JetBlue, my goodness. I haven't looked at that in a while. It just keeps going. Yeah, that's what they'd allow you. Some type of a carry-on, right, Dan? Something. Hey, it's crazy, man. I couldn't believe it. I was checking it three times. And listen, I'm still probably gonna go for JetBlue, okay? Especially with Tommy, and you're gonna have a check bag and everything that goes with it, and there's still pretty affordable deals right now on JetBlue. To be fair, to JetBlue, and it's stock trading at 467, JetBlue had flights $79 each way, Tampa to Boston, Boston to Tampa. That's for their, you know, you got to piecemeal everything now, right? They got JetBlue basic, they got JetBlue blue, they got JetBlue plus. That's for the basic. If you want the ability to have a carry-on bag and choose your seat, you're paying $120 a leg. Now, that's going out a month. You know, that's picking flights that's not the peak flight. Still pretty affordable. And maybe that's why they're making no money, man. I don't know. Crude trading right now at what, $82 backing off. But boy, those have been some higher prices this year from lows of 66, pushing a high of 9508, I think, 9503. Oh boy, I would stay away from that chart, man. Look at this chart. Wow. Yeah. And don't think it can't chop around for a while under $7.50. Look at that. From 2007 till 2013, six years of chopping on below that level and we're back right to that level. Unbelievable. Cause my friends during the pandemic could not stand JetBlue. And I'm saying during the pandemic, you know, the last two to three years as we've come out of the pandemic, I have a lot of friends that fly out of Boston. JetBlue has a big presence in Boston. And they've spoken to the fact that it's abysmal delays, problems, now all the airlines dealing with problems getting workers, right? Having reliable workers during COVID, people calling out, having enough pilots to fill that schedule, et cetera. But just cancellations, delays, and the chart shows it to put it lightly. All right, what else we got pulled up here? Yeah, we've talked a lot about the jobs. Yeah, we're looking at a couple of journal articles. Let's talk about this one. If you're planning on going to China and you run a big business, I would think about it. Yeah, to put it lightly, China is becoming a no-go zone for execs. Foreigners are thinking twice about business trips to the country after Beijing has barred some executives from leaving. I mean, what I said here is that no matter how powerful you think you are, if you're not the most powerful man in China, you're nothing. Pretty much the same as in Russia, right? When you're under something like that, if you're not the man, you are just another pawn in the system. And I'm surprised that more people that don't reach stratospheric wealth like Jack Ma or the gentleman with the real estate going on right now in China, who was once worth $40 plus billion dollars, now what, he's worth like a billion or two and he's arrested and he's under house arrest by the Chinese government. Surprised even Chinese citizens don't realize the opportunities outside of China when you reach that level, let alone if you're working somewhere else and you're going there, okay? I mean, whether you're talking about China, whether you're talking about Russia, whether you're talking about getting hold up in a ritz in Saudi Arabia, I mean, that's part of the conversation that never got brought into the whole live golf, people taking the money and the paycheck. Listen, man, there are some great arguments and I'm jumping around all over the place, okay? But the headline speaks for itself in this article. There were some great arguments by some of the golfers that accepted that Saudi Arabia money, okay? Saying, this is generational wealth that I'll never have a chance at again, the things that I'll be able to do with this $100 million, $40 million, right? Starting camps for children, doing this, right? Building nonprofits in my local neighborhood just to help people that I saw that were struggling, et cetera, all these arguments, very real arguments. The counter side of that is that you go into business with people in Saudi Arabia that even their most wealthy citizens of their own country get locked up in a ritz hotel and get shaked down for vast forms of wealth before their freedom is reinstated. So that part of the conversation, you know? It's like going into business with the mob and they make one deal and then they come back and they want something in return. I'm always amazed that somehow that doesn't go further like in this where you go to China, right? And executives going to China to do business. You better make sure you're not upsetting anybody over there or somehow and you really can't be sure of that, right? Can you visit China? Yeah, you can probably visit China, okay? But when you're over there doing business, right? You're making contracts. You probably need some type of political will over there and it's becoming very, very difficult to do that without facing imprisonment, basically, yeah? The reluctance among foreign execs to travel to mainland China could put more strain on the relationship between Beijing and the US. It should. Executives worry about going there and being detained. Taiwan is not going away. So that's always out there. Russia's out there. The geopolitical risks in this economy right now. Outside of the fact that we don't even have a speaker of the house going on, when does that start creeping back in, right? We're a year out from a presidential election. We don't have a speaker of the house. We have a small continuing resolution that's gonna need to be repaired and we have jobs. We got jobs though. We're gonna be okay. We gotta get inflation under control, but we got jobs. The economy is strong in the long run. We will be okay. Market prices though, might have to recoil a bit as we tame inflation. Stay tuned folks, one more segment. S&P's off by 29. We'll be right back. The gold report. As a precious metal, gold is still king. It continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market, the US futures market, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The gold report. Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report every Monday morning for subscribers, consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, the Dollar, Bonds, the South African Rand, as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy-sell recommendations. 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If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. TFNN.com, educating investors. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV at TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. Welcome back, folks. We're not out of the woods just yet. Volatility persisting with the S&Ps down about 31 points right now. Interesting, when you put this on a minute chart, we are right back to basically what we are traded at on that initial move lower on 8.30, we've had quite the acceleration higher from 4242 up to 4275 and we backed off a bit, that's a minute chart. So we're just kind of testing where we were about 15 minutes ago at 9.40 in the morning. And as our man Basil Chapman says, the day is young. We got our man Basil coming up next. And don't forget, folks, if you haven't checked out our new program, our man Peter Bruno, the Wall Street Money Hour, this is every market day, two till 3 p.m. Eastern time, right ahead of my dad's show. My dad will be live as well. We had our man Steve Rhodes doing his program early this morning at eight in the morning. So we'll have him in there. I believe Larry is back as well, but check out the Wall Street Money Hour, Peter Bruno, live two to 3 p.m. Eastern time. Fortunate to have Peter with that program. It's a great program, man. And he's got the Wall Street Money Letter that's coming to TFNN. And that is coming pretty much right now. We'll be talking about that soon as well. So stay tuned, check out Peter's program live at two o'clock today. And as we wrap things up, we'll talk about the chances of a rate hike. How about a November rate hike? I don't see this one coming, but if you wanna do a percentage on a percentage, the chances of a hike just went up by 50%. Now, that's where a percentage is on percentages. I always say it can be deceiving. The chances of a rate increase next month, yesterday were 20%. Today, there are about 30%. What's the chance of a rate hike by the Fed? It's now at about 30%. But 30% is almost 50% more, or is, but at that 29%, right? Than what it was yesterday, which is 20%. So you have a 50% greater chance today of a rate hike than you did yesterday as per the probability priced into it. Nonetheless, about a one out of three chance, they're saying a rate hike in November. I don't know if that's gonna happen. I don't know if we're getting cuts anytime soon though, that's for sure. We got S&Ps off by 33 as we wrap up the program. We jump over to the 10 year. The 10 year is sitting at 106.15 right now. How about the 30 year, man? Pushing 5% for the first time since 2007. Folks, thanks so much for starting your Friday with me. Stay tuned, Basil's coming up live right now. Have a great weekend. Have a safe weekend out there. We look forward to seeing you back in Monday morning at nine o'clock. Stay tuned for Basil. Have a great one, folks.