 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We have got a Monday night football double-header to close out week number two We've got the Saints the Panthers the Browns at the Steelers We're here today to break down both those games talk about traditional markets player props and so much more to get you ready Which should be a fun night on the gridiron This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research. My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joint here as always every Monday by Ryan Williams Check him out on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W Ryan two games coming up for tonight. How is your week two been thus far? Yeah week two has been been good Jim. We talked about taking advantage of What people you know think is going to be the whole season in one week of week one So, you know, we were able to we were able to bounce back a little bit You know, it still does pain me to see the bears not able to close up a victory on the road there against But you know, I think I was heavily heavily on Josh Allen This week which came to fruition, which I know you and mr. Brandon Goodula were on as well if you listen to the heat check pod and was able to Make amends there in the afternoon slate as well as the night's late You know with Miami being able to to cover against the New England Patriots. So it's been a great week, too We're hoping to carry that on into tonight's late We got two games to bet on which is usually the week one Monday night's late Well, they give us two games and now they're doing it with week two Jim. So in week three There are two games next week, too So this is actually a double dip and like both you and I played DFS So like having the two game slates on Monday is kind of a blissful way to end it like from a data perspective It's really annoying to have four teams where I don't have their full week two data yet But from a DFS perspective, I will certainly take that now We're gonna dive in talk about saints Panthers first then dive into the Browns and the Steelers later on the first day reminder To make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast Ryan is back with us tomorrow to break down some power rankings changes futures markets And I'll take a look at my thoughts on week three From a spread and total perspective that is up tomorrow right here in the same feed Of course at Feng with us on Wednesday Thursday JJ Zacharyson on Friday along with Rob Friedman pitching Ninja all right here in the covering the spread podcast feed as always you can Find these not just on that podcast feed But also odd at Fan Duel's YouTube page on and on Fan Duel TV plus go to Fan Duel comm slash watch Or check out Fan Duel TV plus on Amazon Fire Apple TV or Roku devices. We also got daily fantasy for tonight Not just betting there's a two game slate along with both single game slates the Monday night special contest on Fan Duel $9 entry $600,000 in total prizes including $100k to first place then check out single game offerings for both Saints at Panthers and Browns at Steelers Defined a contest that fits your style go to Fan Duel comm or download the Fan Duel app eligibility Restrictions apply Let's begin things here by talking about the Saints at the Panthers are right now at Fan Duel sportsbook These Saints are three point favorites total in this game is 39 and a half or I let's talk about those traditional markets first to the Saints and the Panthers I'm not seeing much value here personally on either side any read for you on a side or a total here Yeah, this one is a is a tough one Jim. I feel like the number feels right Which is always usually a stay away from me But if we are talking about a side just for just for the people at home, you know, we have been seeing Under or I'm sorry. We saw the overs hit in immense fashion in week two with these teams kind of getting right I believe there are only two unders yesterday on Sunday That would have been the Sunday night game and the Chiefs and Jaguars game, which was very shocking To only hit what was it 26 points or whatever it was And so, you know, when the under is over or when the over unders on coming in under 40, you know I'm always a little bit interested on that. I know this is a primetime game But you know, both of these defenses, they're kind of missing some pieces on both sides JC Horn is specifically for the Carolina Panthers. It's tough as I know we'll get into the receiver plays I also do like the New Orleans Saints here. Just, you know, getting the three points on the road You know, it like I said, it feels right But I think the Saints just kind of match up a little bit better than this Panthers team They have to show me a little bit more before I'm willing to to to take them in in such fashion You know, the juice is a little bit too much for me on the money line I feel like for for the Saints just straight up. But, you know, we're getting a minus three You know, I minus one 10 there with just a little bit of juice I'm willing to go that route there and maybe dabble on the over Yeah, I think the over if I were forced to pick something would be where I'd go to my numbers have the the total here 41.1 total is 39 and a half. So not a I don't trust my total model enough to feel confident in that We're still working on that one, but it does show value in the over here 39 and a half. So interested there the money line I think is a value for the Saints, but not a big enough value to justify taking either went out of the 62.3 percent They're implied odd 61.8 percent. So less than a percentage point of value there. So I agree with you where More so leans and I think the over if you were to force me to bet something would go there But personally I stay away from you across the board in that regard But I do agree with your thought process Ryan talking about The Saints passing offense and I thought they looked great last week I know that like they put up 17 points against the Titans, but the Titans defense is pretty good and having Chris Olave Rashid Shahid Michael Thomas all paired together with a competent quarterback I think it'd be kind of fun. So what's your read on the player props on the Saints side of things here? Yeah, I think, you know Rashid Shahid is the the interesting one for me Jim if we're going to talk about this guy and just getting involved with him You know, you look at his over yards at 40 and a half any time touchdown You know, I think we're almost getting two to one on that as well And he just kind of you know picking up from where he left off Three to one now I've been those footbreakers. I see the plus three ten. That's that's amazing Picking up kind of where he left off, you know last year and that was a different regime You know, we still have Dennis Allen in the mix there and up into coordinator and and such But with Derek R being there, you know, this guy with the Raiders He's been able to you know, kind of get multiple people in the mix and we saw that come to fruition Last week when you have Olave and Michael Thomas, you know Who are going to be the focal points of a defense? But then Rashid Shahid comes in here and just you know is able to dominate air yards and such like that So, uh, I like Rashid I like Rashid Shahid in this matchup I think that he you know, there'll be some deep shots for for him to be able to take one to the house And uh, if we're getting three to one there on his anytime touchdown prop, I definitely like that as well Yeah, plus three ten for Shahid at any time touchdown The receiving prop is 40 and a half right now for Shahid over is minus 110 the profits that are most to me Is I don't want to pick between these guys between Shahid olave and thomas like all of them So instead why not just go Derek Carr over 232 and a half passing yards I think that's the route that I'd want to go if our if I'm betting player Props in the saints and I think across this game. I like that. Oh, it just came down I like uh So we have this live up on the on the feed right now it goes away. Okay came back about the same number So 232 and a half for Derek Carr passing yardage If I don't want to pick between three awesome receivers Derek Carr's a dot and week one was very very high Related to what it was nor one so granted or in Las Vegas that did occur indoors and this is not indoors. Uh, so That's one thing to keep in mind, but I don't believe Wind here is a major factor yet three mile per hour winds. That shouldn't matter too much So if I'm betting a prop in this game, it's going to be on car over 232 and a half passing yards At minus 110. I feel like ryan that number just a little bit. It's enticing enough to get me to bite Yeah, you know what? I think there's defense, you know, we're talking about some secondary pieces missing from carolina But if we can get, you know, some some action, uh through through the air, uh, that you know, you definitely like that It's also like jamal williams getting in the mix. Uh, you know, we'll see what happens this week But I think, you know, most of us Expected him to be able to kind of leave the charge with alvin kamara suspended and that just didn't come to fruition In the same way that we saw when he was in detroit So I think that maybe they have to lean on Derek Carr's arm a little bit more, you know Through this game with the pieces missing in the secondary Absolutely. Let's talk about the other side of the ball here, which is the panther side Miles Sanders, but had pretty good rolling week one as far as the pass catching goes his rushing plus receiving prop At 77 and a half. I haven't taken anything here personally, ryan But what do you see on the panther side when it comes to props for this game? Yeah, you know, I think the the young guys are really what stands out to me So you talk about miles sanders and so many people were on miles sanders in week one And I feel like chuba hubbard, you know, it's kind of carved out a role for himself You know with this carolina panther steam. There's a reason why he's still on the roster I feel like even in week one, you know, chuba was in there and kind of making more plays Then miles sanders goes and miles sanders has been, you know, a fantasy darling, an industry darling For so many years and we thought that, you know, him being able to come here and kind of help You know, leave the charge with bryce young would kind of do some favors But it just seems like maybe that is not going to come to fruition as we thought not to overreact In week one as we talk about jim, but I think chuba hubbard is the guy who I look at of getting more So into the mix. So I think, you know, his rushing and receiving profit coming in at over 45 and a half Is one that, you know, kind of kind of speaks to me, links to me And then we're talking about the receiving cord jim, you know, we we always talk about, you know, the second stringers coming in When the backup quarterback is in and you know, I think the tight ends being able to help, you know A rookie quarterback or young quarterback, but also we got to talk about the rookie receivers You know, we've got to come in at the same time as these rookies do and jonathan mingo You know, we talked about him over the summer Of kind of having, you know, some splash Married of, you know futures on leading the league and receiving yards for rookies and things that nature is a flowers Looks like he's going to be able to run away with that Award but jonathan mingo coming in at just 26 and a half on his receiving prop Like I definitely love that if i'm expecting the saints to, you know cover the three here and be, you know Keeping the lee leading the charge then I think that bryce young is going to have to show us that he has to throw And you know, it looks gross because his prop of passing yards is under 200 under 190 Have you but I think jonathan mingo getting 27 yards, you know feels appropriate So at you know him at minus 110 at that prop i'm willing to to lean into that a lot Yeah, 26 and a half the number for jonathan mingo there I did see one here that kind of did catch my attention I agree that chuba was in the mix a lot last week and probably will continue to do so because he's good enough to Deserve that but mild sanders receiving yardage prop is 12 and a half and sanders had six targets last week Which I think is tied for the third most in his entire career It is most since like 2020 so he was much more involved in the passing game now Was that because dj shark wasn't playing? I don't know But no that just came down to maybe they're listening to us as they hear us talking about props and they imagine come down It's back of a 12 and a half. So we're good to go but um I think that one's least interesting based on the workload He saw last week any final thoughts for you on this game ryan Yeah, no, that's a that's a great call out jim. I was just going back and looking and yeah He did he did see a number of drop-offs there even though the russian wasn't working out for him So, you know, I think yeah, brice young is just going to have to get you know Most of these guys in the mix so any type of prop that we can you know get that kind of ties to it Um, especially with these numbers, you know coming in up to 30, uh for receiving line definitely feels good They don't have a guy above 30. Do they There is no panthers I guess feeling feeling. Yeah 30 and a half on the spot. Wow. Yeah, which is plus money. So We think about uh, he's received the line, but yeah, this thing's defense can definitely, you know, wreak havoc Um, very quickly and so if they are able to get up to that lead Which doesn't always feel great when we're we're talking about derek har holding the lead, but uh, right But I think yeah, these these props are definitely interesting in a route. I want to go All right, let's dive into the second game here. That is the browns taking on the stealers and This one is kind of interesting ryan because when I look at this one, I Look at it and I you talked about the over in the other game I feel like this total is also too low personally. I don't want to like, you know influence the way you're viewing this game But 38 and a half for this one feels a bit light right now. The browns are two and a half point favorites total 38 and a half The browns money line minus 132 I actually show a quite a bit of value in the over here personally in my again You know young totals model I kind of think I want to take it. So what's your read on the traditional markets here for browns and stealers Yeah, I mean that that is really what jumped off the page from me off the rip like 38 and a half for this game You know feels way too low. I get it, you know, the both of these defenses Looks like they're going to play the part Of what we think about with with defenses in in 2023 But you know, even on prime time, you know, this match up in the past seven games gem, you know, since 2020 There's only one time in seven games when this game has not hit a total Over 38 and a half of where it's coming in at so it definitely feels like, you know, we're getting a good line there It's also, you know, you're looking the stealers taken two and a half, which is this deja vu From from week one when we took the two and a half against sand friend Maybe it is but I do like, you know Mike Tomlin to be able to rally these guys in a bounce back spot when we're looking at him just after a loss And the and you know, what that means historically For this team to be able to get up, especially at home I do like being able to take the stealers here at two and a half and even on the money line at plus 112 I feel like there's merit to taking that here. You know, the brown's offense has not looked like What they signed up for for when they gave Dishon Watson the biggest contract in NFL history So they definitely have to prove it to me and with the marie cooper missing on the other side there You know, he's going to have to find other pieces to kind of get things going now We will talk about nick chopping a little bit but from an overall, you know standpoint I think the stealers defense is enough to keep Dishon contained and if can he pick it, you know This going against the 49ers defense like like we said the 49ers in the Eagles Control that aren't destiny and then fc like these are two of the best teams I am fully confident in saying that and so it just could be one of those matchups where you get into a gauntlet So, uh, just like with Justin Fields how horrible he looked against green Bay the other week and comes into Atlanta And is able to show out a little bit I expect them to go back to the drawing board with matt canada who It's up to bet on anything with matt canada related to it But uh, I do like it. I do like this offense getting going Yeah, I have a bit of value in the stealers plus two and a half two I've got it at 1.1. I have not taken it because I'm too Too scorned from last week. Also, like, you know, it's thin enough value where I'm like, I'll I'll I'll be okay passing but I think the over 38 and a half is very very fair now you mentioned the browns offense kind of Struggling uh, since Dishon Watson came to town they did show some life in the second half in week one But now likely noamari cooper here. So when you look at the brown side any props you're liking there, ryan Yeah from a prop standpoint, you know, I think it really just comes down to nick chubb for me, uh, you know, his over Uh, I think it's rushing and receiving. Yeah, I'm looking at the rushing prop there at 85 and a half rushing and receiving like over It's a hundred and a half. No before we got on this gym It was 99 and a half and I thought, you know, even then that's kind of a little bit crazy You do like the work that he's seeing in the passing game In week one if that's any, you know, if that's any foreshadowing to what we're going to see from this year You know, nick job is just a freaking smash All across the board, but um, it that that still does feel a little bit lofty for me to take I'd be interested in taking the 83 and a half maybe on his rushing prop Just because I think this year just so so much of it leans to him and with cam hayward being out on the defense You know, maybe he's able to get going Other than that, the only other guy that I'm looking at is Elijah Moore To be able to get going here with out of maric cooper. I think people will look at dpj down down in people jones To get going there, which I don't think is necessarily a mistake But when you're looking at only four and a half or basically five yards five yards difference between these two Like a legemore was the name that we were hearing all off season him getting acclimated They traded for this guy when he was on the jets and uh, you know, really really wanted him to be a part of this Offense and so 40 and a half for him, you know on his receiving props especially if he's matching up with some of those Pittsburgh's dealer corners who are able to just you know, let everybody Eat for the 49ers in week one. I think Elijah Moore makes a ton of sense Yeah, I came into the air pretty skeptical of Elijah Moore because I You know watching his time with the jets it was frustrating and I kind of felt like whenever you get those like bad vibes It's hard to come back from a bad vibe classification. He was firmly in the bad vibe zone But seven targets for Elijah Moore in week one, even with Amari Cooper playing Only one of those was deep But you know, he was getting a lot of work and he also had two red zone targets So like his workload was good. They were using him in like Ways that signaled to me that they want the ball in his hands So if you take Amari Cooper out of the equation I do feel like the Elijah Moore props a pretty good call out because There should in my mind at least based on week one Be more separation between Elijah Moore and joku and dpj in the receiving mark Receiving yard is market, but right now they're all within five yards So I agree to you where Elijah Moore seems like the way you'd want to go there Yeah, definitely. Definitely You mentioned hayward too. Hayward is a big thing for for chub. So chub They are big numbers, but I think that I agree with what you were saying We understand why they're there with nick chub for right now Let's talk about the stealer side of things offense fell flat in week one and now no de ante johnson this week So when you look at stealers props, let's hands out to you there Yeah, so I'm gonna do the reverse I'm gonna talk about the receivers first gym and then go to the running backs because of how That position has looked to be for the steers for quite some time, but george pick Is you know hitting seven targets last week just behind de ante johnson with a before he left the game You could tell you know watching that game even like it's a 49ers. They wanted to get george pickens Involved early and often in that game. So him coming in at over 42 and a half, you know, that feels appropriate Calvin austin even you know at 25 and a half like that just feels wrong with the guy who saw six targets in week one and not that these things are Going to extrapolate one for one week over a week But without de ante johnson being in the mix like there has to be somebody else that steps up You know outside outside of like friar move than darnell washington and what we think of the backfield Calvin austin they they made a point to to get this guy involved and I think you know He should definitely see some work Early and often and if we can get him, you know to four or five targets in the sixth target range That's definitely appropriate to get and Over 25 and there and then we talk about the running backs real quick gym And I don't want to go any further than this and i'll toss it back to you like Najee Harris And four games against the cleveland browns has scored in every freaking matchup against them So let's not even talk about his props and how gross they feel and how much we can't trust them But when you're looking at it anytime touchdown and we're getting plus 150 and higher on nazi harris Yep, plus 150 is where it's still out right now Would let's just take that and be what it is like I do think jaylon warren's still gonna be in the mix and him You know over two to one to score touchdown. It's kind of interesting But they did seem like when they got into the red zone that they well They are still going to give nazi harris that first time a crack at being able to get in the goal line And we saw that happen come to fruition with the ugly backfield last week with the eagles When we thought that were shot penny was going to be the goal line back and though Deandre swift the guy who they invested in is the guy who comes to fruition And I do think For whatever we believe in this backfield nazi harris is the guy that the stealers have invested in So giving him shots when he they get close to peter is where I want to get my money on this week I also think with nazi you're taking a shot at the upside market plus 150 as opposed to a Rushing or rushing plus receiving where like the downsides are not as baked it So I think that makes more sense if you're looking for a uh, an a route to betting nazi I want to see a calvin austin's anytime touchdown mark is he's not a big body. Oh plus six fifth Know it went away again plus six 50 or plus 750 I didn't get to okay plus 650 for calvin austin for any time touchdown. I think that's pretty enticing I think that's the number I could get behind For calvin austin and then with pickens going back to him I think the 42 and a half is interesting because that's why he could get in like a In hurry I think I'd want to check out the alt market so because pickens is volatile and You want to take advantage of the volatility? So he is plus 118 to get over 50 receiving yards That's pretty good plus 180 to get over 60. I think that's where I might look for him. So I I think that pickens should get a lot of work for whatever reason because it doesn't get separation He doesn't get a lot of work and this this kind of allows you to take advantage of that the fact that he is a volatile player so I think that's pretty enticing for him if you force me to pick between those I kind of like the calvin austin austin anytime touchdown at plus 650 um I might lean that way, but I think we're both on the same page with pickens getting a bump having some upside in austin Also benefiting from diante johnson not being out there Definitely, definitely, especially when you see that drastic change there from minus 132 the plus 118 From 40 yards to 50 yards and this purpose coming in at 42 and a half that uh, that definitely looks all right I like you calling out that alt market there Yeah, I might need to go about the calvin austin one. We'll see this is I we talked ourselves into rachichi heat on prime time a couple times last year and that paid off Maybe austin's like the next rachichi heat for this show. So we'll see how that goes Alrighty, that is all that we have here for today as mentioned though. Ryan was back with us once again tomorrow. We'll be talking about Uh futures markets and stuff like that to recap week two and look forward to week number three to get that Make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast Also, check us out on the fandal youtube page and on fandal tv plus ryan It was a pleasure having you on as always so we'll talk to you once again tomorrow Yeah, pleasure as well jim. Good luck. Alrighty check out ryan on twitter at ryan alexander underscore w I'm on twitter at jim sonnis want to thank you all for tuning in for today and enjoy both the games for tonight We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to get you set for week number three This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network