 Hi, gwaith yn golygu. Yn ystod, 28 Febrer yma. Yn ystod yma yng nghymru, sy'n ni'n fawr o'r newid hynny o'r ddawn gradd, o ddaw-25,000. Felly, gallwch chi'n ddod y chat, yn llwyn, yn fawr, gallwch chi'n cael ei fath. Felly, gallwch chi'n gallu'n ddod, roi'n cael ei fath o'r llwyffau. Y cwit looked to my right hand side and you can see just how bad it is. See of red yet again, sixth day in a row stocks, but it's not looking good here. Spot the green, this is absolutely incredible really. It really is, it's got people talking about markets. The moves that we're seeing are just really incredible here. Bringing the S&P in here now. Cysylltiad y gweithio ar y cyffredin yw'r eu ffordd oedrach, ym 8 o'r oedd yn y fawr. Gweithio'r gweithio'r llog ym Llywodraeth yn ymwyaf. Felly mae'n ymddai yn ddillad ar y cyflodau chi. Felly mae'r fawr a'r fawr, ym mwyaf, yw'n ymwysig. Mae'r fawr a'r fawr a'r fawr a'r fawr, mae'n fawr a'r fawr yn ymwyaf. Mae'r fawr yn yr ymwyaf o'r fawr, mae'n fawr yn 400. i deari i palaf o hyn, i when am ddigon i ddweud yr unrhyw, ond, gan bobl yma i ddweud i hynny, yn hynny i ddweud y ddweud i ddweud i ddweud y llwyffor i ddweud eu ddweud, ac oed i ddweud am symud o'r ysgol yn yllteilio i'r rhaglandau bwysig. Ygweld y cyr ble i'r rhaglandau bwysig i ddiweddau, ac mae rydyn nhw'n dechreu oherwydd y gwaith ymlaen nhw oed i ni fod y rharwm hyffordd. Oeddwn i'r gweithio gysyllt yma yn y cyfnod sydd wedi gweld am 7 p.m. gan ydych chi fath o'r amddangos, ond sy'n gweld chi'n gwneud y dyfodol. Mae'r gwaith gwahodd ar hyn yn ddigonol. Ac rydyn ni'n dweud yn dwi'n gwybod, ac mae'r ddweud yn gwneud o'r ddweud o'r pethau a'r ddaeth. wydd o'r ddweud dros yma yn cael ei fod yn ymweliadau. Felly, oherwydd mae'n bywyd y bywyd o'r ddweud ymweliadau'n ymgyrchol iawn, a'r bywyd o'i fadech a feidiau'r tyfudd ymweliadau, chi newyddwch, oherwydd mae'n grwpbeth gyd, oherwydd mae'n galw. Felly, mae'r wneud hynny yn ei ddefnyddio yn y canloeddol i'w ymweliadau, ond y bydd eisiau ei ysgelt, mewn ddau, weddyn nhw fyddech Mariad, ond i mi nid y bwysig yng Nghymru. O chers gweithio, ond weithi'n gwneud hynny. Cweithio ben y moddumbol yma, mae'n gweld y brifydl ifanc a'u omlifat. Mae'r gwrth i ddodol yn crsig yma. Mae'n rhan i fod yn sicr gŵl, ond mae'n cael ei gŵl, pan wedi g���dd aeth chi'n gael y bwysig, mae'n cynnwys ar gynnig, oedd sy'n cael ei wneud. Rwy'n gweithio ar y cwyl iawn. Rwy'n gweithio bod y lef yn fwy o'r wneud. and that for me is very keen these things. I wouldn't have necessarily have orders waiting to get into the trade. Wait for that confirmation, price breaks through and it wasn't until like I said about 6.57 o clock that I get into that trade price I identified here as to a level of support and then had a target for what was the love of the day. And then was sitting around what it had been 9.45 checking the amplifier group chat and a Alex a Charlie. Mae'n gweithio bod yn ysgrifennidau ym Mhwylwch, mae'n dda i'n ddweud rhai xyz, yn 1,000, 0,400, a mae'n gweithio bod ymlaen i'n gweithio, mae'n gweithio ar y targi. Felly mae'n gweithio i'r ffordd, mae'n gweithio i'r gweithio i'r gweithio, a mae'n gweithio i'r gweithio, ysgrifennidau, mae'n gweithio i'r gweithio i'r gweithio i'r gweithio, mae'n gweithio i'r ddechrau, The broad market has lost an average of 12% since hitting just a record high on February the 19, literally 10 days ago. We were at record highs. Dow Jones fell as much as 12.9% from its high, and the Nasdaq has lost as much as 13%. So in correction mode here. You can see lovely little graphic here from the financial times. Just on my right hand side. virus tip set in P 500 into quickest correction since the depression. ac mae'r holl bwysig os ddim ddim yn ei ffordd, fyddiwch arall, a'r holl ddweud yn ni. Mae'r holl bwysig o'r holl ddweud o'r holl yn ni a'r holl ddweud o'r holl yn ni. Felly, mae'r holl ddweud o'r holl yn ni. Mae'r holl mwy o'r holl a'r holl yn ni. Yna, mae'r gwneud yn ei ffordd ac mae'r twfwyr yn y ddweud hynny yn ei ffordd. yn ymwybod iawn o'r cyfnod o'r ddweud o'r ddechrau eich cyrragedd? A'n mynd i'n mynd i'n gallu'n ymwneud o'r ddweud o'r ddweud o'r ddweud o'r ddweud o'r ddweud. Rwy'n cael y peirloedau sydd.. A'r cyfrifodd ymwneud yn cael ei fod yn rhaid i'r ddweud o'r ddweud. Felly mae'r lleidio ar y cyfrifoddau baut yn rhaid, mae'r ddweud o'r cwmaint, mae'n bwysig i'r cyfrifodd. there's definitely a chance that this market could gap either way, you know, on Monday, where central banks all come together and they come up with some, you know, sort of plan to reduce this massive down fall in stocks that we're seeing. In terms of the rate cut, you know, I'm not too convinced that that's the answer, because they're so low anyway. And if, you know, if data was eventually to get start getting better down the line, what they are o'r linei yn y llif yn dweud i fod yn fwy o'r hyn sy'n gofyn nhw i'w'r chyflwytoedd. Mae'r lefydau negatifol yn ddesgol ym Ystafell. Mae'n dweud i fynd i ddweud i ddweud i ddweud i ddweud i ddweud i ddweud, ond mae yna'r lefyd yn roedd yn gwybod. Yn y gallai gynhyrch, mae yna'r llyfr o ran gael i'r llyfr. Mae'r ffordd o gwbod yn unrhyw sy'n gweithio'r linei oherwydd mae'n gweithio'r llyfr yn gweithio'r llyfr. mae'n meddwl, mae'n meddwl yn gyflosedd, ffresiaeth yng ngyfyrdd, mae'n meddwl yn mynd i gwneud, mae'n meddwl yn gennym pod mai'r hynny'n rhau ei gennym i'r hynny yn ei ddod oherwydd. Wrth yw'r ysgrifennid yw'r tor, mae'n meddwl yn'r hanfraith cyflogfriddas wrth ynglyn o'r bwysig, nid oherwydd mae'n meddwl i'r hyn ymdyn nhw, ac maen nhw'n gwneud? Mae gennym yn gwneud arddangosattwch, mae'n meddwl yn gennym i gweithio'r bwysig, Ysbyt dechrau, oedd rydyn ni wedi'i bwysig chi i gyntaf i'r arlaedd rydyn ni yn eu gwaith nad yw'r ni, rydyn ni i chi i chi'n gofynnabodd? Yn ym fifteen a hi wedi'u cyffredinio i'r 16 mae'r adeiladau rydyn ni, mae'r adeiladau, gynchai, oedd rydyn ni, bennyddio 256 rydyn ni, ac mae'r adeiladau bwysig ti'n gweithio, 15, neu niferuniau 357 rydyn ni, lwm 44 bod yn cael ei cyfeirion. Italy, 603 caces, Germany, 14 new cases that are ready for the epidemic and also first cases in Northern Ireland, New Zealand, Lithuania, Nigeria and Belarus. It's spreading and if they start testing, what really kicked things on yesterday to the downside in stocks was that they were testing 8,000 people in California who had got back from Asia. It was that squawk came out and price went lower and a massive shout out to New squawk, the squawk provider we used, the last couple of trading sessions they've been massively on the bull. We go back to around 4.35 o'clock on Thursday Wednesday when they reported what the German health minister said. You can see stocks have never gone lower from there and you had time to get in here and the market moved. The way I would say you need to trade this, you need to identify your key levels and also you need to realise that this is going to be a headline driven market. What's going to push us higher is probably people taking profit and just a bit of relief until we come back to these key levels where decision needs to be made for this move lower. What you can see certainly over the last few trading sessions is any false break or any attempt to get into a previous low has just been met with a great opportunity to get short again. So while I say here for us to get to the pivot in the S&P that would mean we've got to be up for the day and we'd also have to be 80, 70 points higher. What an opportunity that would be to then get short later on and these markets really are moving. The Dow Jones had a range yesterday from that height that it made in early trade to where the low now for example of nearly 2000 points. Have patience and wait for these key levels to come in. If I was looking for a trade I'd be looking and identifying just how key this level is here 25,520. Yesterday's low we could not close below there on the 15 minute candle all overnight. When we did at 315 price came back great opportunity to sell. So whether you've got a bias and it's always risky coming in with the necessary bias. Did the market tell you what's going on 25,520 for me is a great area where if we were to break above that 15 minute and come back that's a fairly good opportunity to get in. Or it might be later on I'm not interested in buying I'd rather see us push higher fine but then when we're back below there that's then the opportunity to get in to the downside. Also these lows here you can see we've just created a really nice level support on 25,200. It might be that we never make it higher we come lower and this is the next step that I look to get into this trade. So David's very good opportunities out there on a market that has definitely confused people is gold. Now it's pretty much now flat for the day over the course of what David's talking Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday. It's very range bound we've had bigger moves or quicker moves to the downside and people just can't understand quite why that would be. Now it's smart of minds to me out there that have absolutely no idea believe me. So it's you're not alone if you're not too sure why this is happening. But I've got a couple of charts that may shed some light if we go back to I might have actually just got rid. Here we go. So back in the crisis 2008 gold actually didn't go up massively like you would have perhaps expected. Now this was also due to a bit of dollar strength coming in. But also you can see here really from 2008 into July, September time, October when it started we actually did push lower. It wasn't until the end of November where we started to actually start pushing higher and higher. So it's not guaranteed at all in these markets that gold is definitely going to push straight away. And what you've got to realise with how stocks have moved they come down so quickly that people are going to get margin call. People are going to have to take that money from their gold positions to put elsewhere as well to protect these moves. And of course we're coming to the end of the month. There's going to be month and rebalancing here. Now do I think that gold can rally? I do. But you've got to be careful. There was a couple of times it came above here and just couldn't quite break above those highs that we've had for the Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday range. And we're back down to those lows now. It could absolutely break lower, it could break higher. It's that confusing that I wouldn't really fancy trading at the moment. The cleaner moves, more understandable moves are coming in next. Especially if we've got say new headlines that have come out. Also I think it's worth noting. I'm going to bring in the S&P here from 2008. And the reason I'm talking about 2008 is because people are talking about the recession. It could be worse. This is a supply issue. It's nothing to do with what the central banks can do in terms of money easing. It's going to be worse. And the amount of days we're now lower in the S&P let's just go to today where we're trading. One, two, three, four, five, six. This is currently the seventh. Back in 2008, seven was the most we had. There was no more than seven down days in a row, which is incredible. Here back in the first week in October, obviously we know that Lehman Brothers collapsed on the tenth. But here you can see one, two, three, four, five, six, seven. There's never been eight in that 2008 period. And while, of course, we did drift lower before finding a bit of a bottom on March 2009, there was no more than seven down days. So it's incredible this move. I mean, to look at these sizes here is absolutely just insane. The 200-day move in average yesterday, there was a point where I was going to bring this on where people were getting excited and think, well, this is suddenly we're going to find a bottom here. Let's go to this sort of 30, 47 area, let's call it. So yesterday was 30, 47. You know, it's one second, 47 around yesterday. So here you can see this is where the 200-day moving average was. Strong push. And I actually tweeted out at this time and said, honestly, the way this market was bouncing from then, it wouldn't surprise me if we ended up going green. And we were about 15 points away around, it's around 5.30. The California headline came out that they're testing 8,000 people, hence the need for that score. You have to have that. Twitter is fantastic as well. And since then, we've just come lower. So technically, we couldn't break above yesterday's low on saying this yesterday. One technical reason, the headline coming in as well. We then broke through what was the previous low of the day, came back to retest it. And then we've just pushed lower since then. So it's that fundamental. It's the technical analysis linked in together, which is how you want to go about it. But if I was trading, say, the S&P today, the way I would do it, I'd identify my areas of interest. And this is really what I'd be looking at, to be honest. So obviously the lower day 29,000, 2900, then you've got this incredible area. Support, support, support, support. When we break through, how's your resistance level? If you're up-training four o'clock, it's a fantastic trade. You've just made 50 points. You've done for the weekend already. Now, if we get that level, so I'm very interested in what happens here. 2981 the same. And then the pivot up at 3,006. What happens in between there? Unless there's a new headline that comes out, I'm not interested. You can see just how choppy these markets are in between those key levels. Have the patience and wait for them. Because this is where, from these points, you've got your confirmation you want. And that could be the five-minute close. It could be that you're looking at your different moving averages. It could be that you're looking at the correlations. I mean, at the moment, we're not interested right now in what gold is doing when we're correlated with the S&P. I want to see what T-notes is doing. I want to see what the Bund is doing. If we bring in just quickly here, let me just bring in the Bund, oh, the T-notes, sorry. You'd imagine that we're just coming down a bit because the S&P is rising and there you go. So now we're coming up to this level and the S&P is resistant. R1 on the T-notes of support. If you're looking for that correlated move, the volume of course is not necessarily its highest for these US markets. But as a guide, this could really be something that you're looking at. It could be that if the T-notes start to find support here, the Bund starts to find support on its R1. You can see also there that actually this level 2952 in the S&P is a great place to look to get short or vice versa. I would say wait for your confirmation. It's better to be slightly late than too early and get stocked out straight away. But overall these markets are moving fantastically well. There's really good opportunities out there but you do still need that patient identify your levels, plan everything before and also accept when you're wrong. If I was to say get the confirmation I wanted on this 2952, I'd have my stock say give me in it, the volatility is there, maybe six points above, five points above and if it hits that, I don't want to be in this anymore because you can see when these levels in the S&P on that 200-day moving average say you went short on the previous load of the day. It's gone and then rallied nearly 70 points. Stops have to be placed here while you're in the trade identify when you don't want to be in the trade and accept that before. So yeah, incredible at the moment. So just to summarise some of these points here Wall Street, the VIX second biggest weekly rise in history, only 2008 October temp has bettered that we've still obviously got to data to go as well. Also the biggest 10% correction from all-time highs that we've had since 1932 and 1933. Having a look at the calendar it's there's stuff out. If this is a normal day it would be one way you'd be pretty excited seeing this amount of stuff on the calendar potential opportunities but the market's not going to care about this data right now. If you have really good data you might get a slight bit of a blip but it's not enough that's going to change the course here. We do have quite a bit out around one o'clock CPI numbers out of Germany personal income US 130 core PCE GDP out of Canada before Michigan sentiment data at 3 o'clock Chicago PMI around there as well we've got some speakers it's a day where you want to identify your levels be aware that there's going to be a headline driven market as well and listen to comments as we go into the back end of that week is there going to be any emergency procedures overnight Turkey that have issued that they're going to ban short selling like China did a couple of weeks ago that did boost the market. If America were to come out and say something like that this is going to see a short rally I don't think it lasts but you don't want to be short when these kind of things come out. We've got free rate cuts priced in so any talk of a rate cut happening at the next meeting isn't going to move the market because that's priced in and look what's happened even with free priced in these markets are going lower so it's got to take more than that for this to be saved I would say now there's a lot of people and there was talk yesterday of a vaccine being sorted within three months in Israel a lot of people saying this is incredibly bullish stocks finished on their lows yesterday this is what's gripping Wall Street at the moment is this fear that this virus is just going to continue to spread and unless they can really contain this I do feel that the volatility is going to be there and you've got to favour the downside but we have had six down days in a row we only had seven back in 2008 so really is a pretty incredible atmosphere out there at the moment. One other market I want to talk about before passing over to Alex who's going to go into the dollar and the moves that we've seen and levels to be aware of oil has continued to push lower and I'm just going to bring this on the weekly chart we talked about this importance of this trend line from the 2016 low I mean it's just been relentless after it broke that you can see just how clean that was also the lows of the year and we are almost down at 45 bucks and I mean you don't necessarily want to catch a falling knife but 42, 62 is an incredible incredible area support where if we were to have another incredible move to the downside is that a great opportunity to buy. What I was saying to people and I've got people that are interested in getting in these markets on these lows a great opportunity is rather just be late if we can go back to above $50 yes you would miss the $5 but also if we can technically break above that that is technically quite bullish for a push to the upside because people will know I've been one of the most bullish people out there over the last few years whenever we've had moves lower but for example when I bought the dip back in 2018-19 it was only once we had technically broken higher and given that cue and also the Fed were becoming dovish I do think these moves lower fine is what it is trade war is going to be fine I think the Fed will do what it takes so it's not a big reason for us to go into where can I technically get in how about above this trend line and then we push on now we've got a real real reason why markets are under pressure here so if I were looking to buy the dip because absolutely people will be looking to do that well for me it's a long way from that unless something fundamentally changes and there is a vaccine that comes out and the talk is that these things take at least a year technically how I'll be looking at it I mean maybe I'll be saying if we can get back above 3000 in the S&P minimum but to be honest I'd say really more at 3028 and this trend line then for me that starts to be for us to be up there something good has happened and then it's the opportunity to get in to the upside but overall the score for the day obviously stocks expected more volatility to come identify your levels, strict risk management wait for your confirmation to come in definitely get that score on all your Twitter headlines because what's really moving these markets is just these further developments of cases if it continues to spread in America and it's not just California it's New York this market is only going to go one way but still wait for that confirmation there as well alright guys I'm going to pass you over to Alex who's going to go through some stuff on the dollar index and looking at euro and cable as well so I hope you all have a good good weekend I'll be on shortly to start for Alex to wrap it up I'll catch you all in a moment here as well let me just bring in trade of view to Alex over to you good morning thank you Sam on this trade in view first of all I apologise for guys on trading live in our chatroom because much of what I'm going to say I suggest it but you know my style is to stick to my edge no matter what's happening I did a tweet the other day about volatility sort of like a fly to a light when things start kicking off a gold spiking when the stocks are plummeting you know we can sort of get distracted we can go away from our edge and start dabbling in markets that we're not familiar with and that's very dangerous when that happens it's just so I stick to the euro and I stick to the currencies I'm just going to sign in here bear with me a moment so yesterday there is some volatility in currency land yesterday the euro had its biggest day in quite a while actually and what I'm going to share with you first is how we caught the bottom in the euro recently you remember the last two weeks price was falling and falling and falling we fell from we were short up in this 110 area taking it all the way down through the back towards this 0850s and then we had this this was the longest period of consecutive down days in the euro for quite some time but around the 08 hand we were getting quite bullish and actually remember I think we were taught was it in the briefing or it was just to our in house guys we had this we started forming this base where price is no longer moving down and price is beginning to move sideways and it wasn't an exact price it was an area of support rather than exact price I like to draw area I can operate it and you can see this hammer here that we had hammer with a really long tail we started to get a bit of a range here it was very choppy it was quite difficult but this was a hammer this was the money shop we was in this range we come back down again for another test of this range but we held this 08 0785 area we smashed through the top of the range there really strong extension up higher than the coronavirus this was a Monday this gap down was the coronavirus and then we found support on the top of the range broken resistance now turned support and ever since then we've been moving higher and then yesterday we had the really big move it was up over 100 pitch yesterday and so there are things going on elsewhere now yesterday we sort of tested the 110 handle we was up over 100 pips on the day and it's been a while since we've been up over 100 pips on the day and so the big trades there in the euro the monster trades are back we'd just like to quickly talk about fundamental bias I had a strong fundamental belief that this coronavirus was going to get worse I did some research over the weekend that from on in late Jan on Jan the 20th or whatever China had 250 cases of coronavirus now two weeks later that had increased to 10,000 and that's when the Yuan started weakening etc and so Italy on Monday had 400 cases and so two weeks projection out takes us to mid March and if we see some sort of exponential movement from 400 up to 10K in Italy that would be exactly the same as what we saw in China bearing in mind that we can't actually believe what the Chinese statistics if we did see some sort of growth that would be I would have thought that would have been escalation and you would have seen European assets come under heavy pressure but there's a lesson here as well and not to get too attached to fundamental belief because the chart disagreed with that completely and in fact looking at the chart very technically you would know that over the last sort of month or so we've been looking at this key trend line support you know I'm staying open minded to the fact that this coronavirus could get worse but I am very open minded that actually price doesn't care about the coronavirus at all if we look at this monthly timeframe we've got this trend line support here that's 20 years old right and it's the grandfather of trend lines so grandfather is coming to play and you can see that technically this was back in September October time looking at sort of using Steve Neeson's candlestick rules that this bullish engulfing candlestick pattern here the very low of the candlesticks would have been support and I'm okay if price can come below and test the support but price has to close above it it's a monthly chart how oversold we are on the monthly timeframe last time we was this oversold was back in January 2017 which preceded Macron's rally and when PMIs were ticking up and Macron was you know beat the pen and we had this rally of over a thousand pips right over the course of about 12 to 18 months well here we are we've got this monster hammer here forming which will close tomorrow which will close today and this is very bullish sign off of this monthly support and so this is what the technicals are saying and my edge is technical and so rather than get married to these fundamental beliefs I have to say well I'm starting to get very bullish to euro and again on the weekly chart we're very very oversold down here and I think that how can the weekly chart benefit intraday trading well the biggest intraday moves are going to be in line with the trend and so if the big picture if the tide is rising all the boats all the boats lift up with the tide if the tide is going in the bullish direction then I want to be buying these big rallies the little pull backs I'm not interested in and so that's why I focus on the big picture so it looks even better on the futures I'm actually going to remove all these but we had this hammer here last week we closed as a hammer which is a bullish sign off of trend line support we've got this massive weekly candle here we're very extended it's a bullish morning star pattern now these morning here's an evening star pattern price move lower is an example of a bullish morning star pattern price move higher and again here bullish morning star price move higher and here we are this one's more extreme and we're a bit more over more overbought here so in the short term going into next week looking at the daily we're just finding a bit of resistance at the moment we're short term overbought on the daily we found a little bit of resistance up around this 110 handle around the 50 from December high and so I would expect a little bit of just to pull back in here a little bit back towards the 0950s kind of area I would have a I would have excuse me I would have a fib drawn from the low to the high and a little bit of a retracement into next week to go long actually I'd really like to get long on this market and fundamentally wrap things up I pay attention to bundas bank speakers you know the language has changed from thinking about doing fiscal spending to planning to do fiscal spending and I think that might be a big part of of this move hopefully we can get a big rally back up towards the 112 handle which is another 200 points away above that 114s if we can really get some momentum going here momentum's been sucked the last 18 months if we can get some momentum going here we can really break out I think because that monthly support is such a big area I was going to cover the pound but I can leave it there that's fine cheers guys have a lovely weekend cheers Alex so I guess in summary here there's opportunities out there but you've got to control that risk you've got to be patient and absolutely wait for your edge don't get married to necessarily a bias that's going to be there any questions as usual guys please do let us know I'd be interested to hear what everyone's got to say in the chat do we think this is going to continue for a 7th, 8th day as well is there going to be some sort of decision made over the weekend that even goes as far as preventing short selling markets time will tell of course but I'll be interested to see what you guys think hope you'll have a good trading session even better weekend as well and I look forward to catching up with you all next week as well