 Educating investors. The following is a presentation of TFNN. Trade what you see with Larry Pezzavento. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now, Larry Pezzavento. Okay, looking good, Billy Ray feeling good, Lewis. Well, we're going to start the show just a tiny bit differently. Each day when I do these shows, I try to do something a little different. And this morning I got a really cool email from Mr. Hector Castillo down in Del Mar, California where the surf meets the turf where Bing Crosby and Jimmy Durrani started Del Mar racetrack way back in the 1920s or 30s and it's been one of the most beautiful places to go to watch the races in California. Well, Hector and his lovely wife went there last Saturday and she happened to pick a couple of horses in the third race. I marked them up. You'll be able to see here one horse was 44 to one. The other horse was 45 to one. And you'll see the horse right below that was the favorite and he was off at less than a dollar. So if you bet the favorite, you got 80 cents back on your money. But if you bet one of those other horses, you got one heck of a payoff. And if you look down here at the bottom, her payoff, she bet a $5 exact a box which cost her $10 and it paid 870 to one. Now that's a little better than even money that that favorite paid. But that's what happened. She got paid a lot of money. So I was happy to see them send that. The names of the horses, of course, was Bear Mountain. And she bet them only because of being a long shot. So the day La Luna, which was the day of the moon, which was the second horse at 45 to one. That's it. By the way, just for historical purposes, the biggest payoff ever in California racing for an exacta for a $5 exacta was a horse called Royal Impact at 60 to one. And the horse in second place was 90 to one called a dunes. The Royal Impact at dunes, the 12 for exacta, paid $12,750. And who had it? Mr. Eddie, fast Eddie Horwitz. I didn't have it because I didn't want to spend 10 bucks, but he had it. And that was back in 1973. Now, the reason why I'm bringing this to your attention is he asked a question about, you know, when you go to the racetrack, the first thing the track does is they take 16 and two thirds percent right off the top. And that means that almost everybody going to the track is there for donations and entertainment. They're not going to make any money. Usually probably 10% or less than 10% of the people will make money. But as you as you see the races unfold during the day, people that are losing will start betting on long shots. And that means that the favorites that are in the race will be priced at a different price. So if you bet and you go to the races and you just want to break even and have a little fun, wait till the seventh, eighth and ninth races, the last three races of the day, and find a horse that is the favorite in the race. Usually he's around two to one or three to one, but he won't be two to one or three to one because of the people betting on the long shots. They'll make that favorite. He'll be paid maybe four or five, even six, sometimes seven to one. And so if you bet that horse, he has a chance of showing 85% of the time. In other words, he finishes first, second or third 85% of the time and that'll cover your expenses for the day. And you might get lucky like Hector's wife. Hector never told me whether he got to keep any of it or not. Hmm, I think I have experience in that, but that's look. Now I wanted to go through one other thing. There's a little longer story to this and you know, one of the reasons I love doing this show is I get to share some of these stories. I've told them before, but some of them are so very vivid and important to me. I want to tell this one again. You'll notice that these two horses were 45 to one and 44 to one. And my very first experience with the track was in 1972 with Eddie Horowitz. And hold on just a minute. Hold on. And Psy, who was the former, um, former, um, gosh darn, he was at not an admiral. He was Lieutenant Colonel in the army and, uh, he was also a good friend of Jack Warner and Jack Warner was there. And we were setting at the track and it was the very first race. And I happened to be sitting next to Jack Warner because Eddie and Psy were sitting right behind me. And I was looking at this horse at 90 to one called Guide Tour. And I said, I like this horse. It looks how pretty he is. You know, I don't know. You know, I still don't know anything about horses. And, uh, and I said, why don't you just throw your $6 at win place and show that out on the track and let the birds pick it up. He said they have no chance of that horse winning. And Jack Warner looked at me and he said, kid, he said, you see those horses out there? I said, yeah. He says there's not one fricking one of them that knows how to read. He far as he knows, he thinks he's man of war. And of course, Guide Tour happened to win that day. And I got back 780 bucks, I believe, for my $6 bet. And I always remembered that, that those horses can't read. So that's the main thing. But if you have a hunch on something, you know, it's better to, you know, to get paid off at eight or nine or 10 to one than to get paid off at a, you know, betting on $2 or something like that. Like Secretary, it went a lot, but he only paid 210, 210, 210. So if you bet $2 on him, you only got $2.10 back. You know, so that's the main reason. You've got to find out why it's there. There's a method to my madness, boys and girls. Stay with me. I'm going to show you the next chart. Okay, this comes directly from the newsletter. Let's get this up here because we were talking about this as one of the features this week was the move that we were looking at potentially in the crude oil. Let's get this up here so we'll be able to see it here. This is the daily chart on crude. Now it's been updated through today because you can see we had traded up to 91, but the 61% retracement on that ABCD pattern came in at 8735. The low was 87.01. Now, if you read the newsletter and if you read the newsletter 24-7, I think you'll be really surprised what really happened because in the newsletter, what we said was, and I'll get this up here to take a look at it. You'll be able to see it just one second. There we come up here with a little half hour chart. So we'll be able to see it over the last few days. We'll be able to see all of these beautiful ABCD patterns. Now these are not 870 to one folks, but the payoff is pretty good. As you can see here, we had the big ABCD. There it was right there. 8735, the low was 87.01. And we said in the newsletter, watch for a rally to the 3A2 at, are you ready for this boys and girls? 92.64 in print. Take a look at it. You won't believe it. And the high was 92.65. Uh-oh. We missed it by one tick, so that one didn't count. As you can see, this was updated about an hour or so ago. We've already broken $3,300 in the last hour and a half from that. Now that's nothing like a payoff on a $5 exact a bet, but that's still a pretty good payoff. But you can see the beautiful ABCD patterns that we're forming there. They don't always work that way. But remember now, if this is a true BC swing there at 92.64, that means that we're going to $78, I believe. $78 is the ABCD structure on that. And that's half the price of where we were back in March. So maybe that war over there is going to be ending sooner than what we had thought. So I hope that pays some, you know, helps you to realize it. What's going on? I want to show a couple other of these because we're looking at our guest today is Shane Smolian, theWolfTrader.com. Tomorrow we've got an open day. I've got some information I want to share with you tomorrow. And then Wednesday, Thursday we've got Stan Harley. Do not miss Friday, folks. Well, don't miss Thursday either, but Peter Lighty's on Saturday, Friday, 877-927-6648. In a time of booming inflation, we are purchasing powers eroded. There's no better place to protect your hard earned money than ain't gold. Vista Gold's flagship asset is the Mount Todd Gold Project in the Northern Territory of Australia. This is Australia's largest undeveloped gold project. We are talking a world class gold project in a tier one mining district. This is a large scale, low cost project with significant existing infrastructure in a politically safe and friendly mining jurisdiction. 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Steve's award winning newsletter, Mastering Probability, is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon. Sign up for Steve's Market Newsletter, Mastering Probability, and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars absolutely free. At TFNN, all our newsletters come with a 30-day money-back guarantee, so you have absolutely nothing to worry about. Visit TFNN.com and try Mastering Probability 30 days risk-free today. TFNN Educating Investors. Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help. Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years. A frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC, Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you. Tom's Daily Market Newsletter, Market Insights, is published every morning when the market's open. To give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed, these newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio. Get Tom O'Brien's newsletter, Market Insights, today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money-back guarantee at TFNN.com. TFNN Educating Investors. 877-927-6648, internationally at 727-873-7618. Okay, we're back folks and I believe we have Bob from Spokane, Washington on the line. Bob, are you there? Good morning. It's good to be back, my friend. What can I do for you today, Bob? Well, I'm glad to hear all these stories about the race. Grandfather was a large shareholder in the California Jockey Club, John Anita in Hollywood Park. I remember as a child, that's how it all started for me. You ran into some famous people in those days, I'll tell you. I did, I did back then, but it was fun. Anyway, thanks for all those stories. And my question today is regarding Trader Tom, did he give you any insight as to what he thinks right now of Bitcoin or Ethereum here? He has no feeling about cryptocurrencies and worse than that, he has no interest in it at all. He really, it's, he just, he doesn't block it out. He just has no interest in it at all. As a matter of fact, he happens to be in an island off the coast of Spain here for the next month with his family. Just to show you what success will do for you. He took 22 people of his family first class for a whole month there and he rented a nine bedroom mansion with servants and cooks in the whole bit for the whole month. So he's living the life of Riley right now and Riley's paying the bills. But he has no interest in the cryptos. I've talked to, and I know very little about him myself, but he does so well just with flat trading that he just doesn't want to go to an area that he doesn't understand. And as you know, Bob, cryptos are probably next to brain surgery and cardiac surgery. It's pretty tough because there's so many things that can go wrong. You know, it's just, so I have, you know, John Jameson is a source I use who's really good at this stuff, but you know, I don't know very much about it. So I can see the chart here to me. That's just a little dead cat bounce that we've seen from 18,000 up to 23,000, 24,000, whatever it is. I mean, that to me is, it should have really taken off a lot more if it was a major bottom. And we've got that major ABCD staring us in the face at 12,000. So that's what I think is going to, where it's headed towards anyway. So put the brakes on till 12,000 and then reevaluate. It would be much better. Yeah, reevaluate. You know, I'm not going to say buy something for 12,000. Go down and look at one of the other cryptocurrencies that, you know, we've looked at in the past like Cardano, ADA. You know, we recommended that at six cents. It went to $3. It's at 53 cents today. If that gets to 15 or 20 cents, you can only lose 15 or 20 cents. You know, stop the train, get on it. That's like buying a two, you know, 40 to one shots at Del Mar. You know, you might get, you might hit it pretty good, you know. Yep. Yep. For sure. Well, thank you very much. And once again, welcome back. It's good to have you back. Well, thank you. It's good to be back. It really is, you know, I, I enjoy when I, when I got that really cool email from Hector last night, I looked at that and I said, oh, I was thinking of something to talk about. And I said, gee, I brought back so many memories and I said, I, I have to talk about, we used to rent a house there during the time when I was at Drexel. We would rent a house for the whole month down at Del Mar, you know, not on the beach, but really close to the beach. And the kids would go and then we would go and play the races and then go out to dinner at night. We, it was really just a really a lot of fun. But those are old days, you know, those are gone. Those are gone. Yeah. Well, anyway, good talking with you and hi, Sarah. And we'll be thinking again. Thanks a lot, Bob. Thanks for calling in. You bet. Okay. Now let's take a look here. I posted the chart of that E-mini S&P from yesterday and I wanted to just give you, because since we talk about the races and stuff like that, the races are no different than than the futures and stuff folks. The reason why is it's all numbers. I mean the race tracks all these sports. Everything is, is based on numbers. How many yards a ball carrier can catch? How far I can throw the ball? All that stuff is related to numbers and we're doing the same thing here. Yesterday, this is what we were looking at. If you remember, I said, watch that 3-8-2 retracement that we had there. Remember this big high up here? That was the large ABCD, you know, on the long term going back to June 24th. That measured to double, double measurements between 41-78 and 41-90 and it got to 41-88-75 and of course you can see after that 3-8-2 we've been trending down, but nothing, you know, really, you know, really dramatic. Now someone asked me to comment about Kathy Wood and Arc Trading and stuff like that. Folks, I don't know anything about her. I know that she's got to do with technical stuff and though she's had a pretty rough run this past six or eight months or a year, whatever it was, but before that she was, you know, she was golden and that happens to all of us in this business, but I don't know anything about her. So I don't want to make any comment and even if I did I wouldn't make a bad comment because, you know, we all go through periods of, you know, being good and being bad and you just got to learn to live with it. That's the main thing. I did want to share, before we have Shane on, I want to share you one of my very favorite horse stories. It goes back to when I was a little shaver. Eight years old, my grandpa, we were living there in Clinton, Indiana right outside of Terhult where I was born and he said, come on son. He says, we're getting ready to go to New York and he says, we're going to go to the races and I'd been to the Kentucky Derby with him, but I'd never been to New York and so we had a, he had a 36 Ford pickup and we slept in the back of the pickup. We drove all the way to Saratoga, New York and we went to see, they were having a horse was being shown, his name was Man of War. Man of War only lost one time in his whole career and that was at Saratoga Race Track and he was upset by a horse named Upset at 99 to 1. Anyway, we went there to see him, they paraded him around, he ran around the track, he was about 29 years old at the time but the reason why we went to Saratoga was because we had relatives there because the family came from Italy and they were coal miners and they first settled in Saratoga then later on in southern Indiana where the coal mines were but that's where we went to visit friends and stuff like that, it was a good four-day trip but I always remembered I'd love to have that old pickup truck back but those days are since long gone. Anyway, that's another one that I wanted to share with you here. I want to talk about the gold market folks because for the first time in quite a while we're seeing something where we might, and I'm saying might this is a big might, we might be making some type of a little top here in this gold market and the reason why I say that is if you look at all of the ABCD patterns that are here, you see the big bottom that was made, there's the pullback just like we said in the crude oil by that first 3A-2 pullback and boom, away it went anyway, you can see we have a 3-drive pattern forming up here at this 18 17, 18, 19 area, so watch that really closely because we've come a long way folks, we're up 130 bucks from the bottom and look at the corrections, we've had $230 corrections which are pretty much spot on to the harmonic number in gold, so let's remind ourselves that that's where we stand. By the way, thanks for listening to the stories that I have and I try to tell as many as I can and the ones that I can't remember I make them up, no I don't do that. Anyway, let's wait on for just a few moments and we're going to have in 4 minutes, we're going to have Shane Smollion the WolfTrader.com sharing some of his ideas and where he thinks the markets are going, tomorrow is an open day, I will have either I'll have a guest or some special stuff tomorrow, Thursday, Stan Harley Friday, Peter Lighties, we'll be right back with Shane Smollion the WolfTrader.com to take advantage of this sector now is the time to subscribe to my Gold Report. The Gold Report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector as well as the markets that move gold which is the currency and bond markets. New subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to lose. Every Monday morning I publish the Gold Report with coverage of gold, silver, bonds, the XAU, HUI, GDX as well as more than 30 different mining equities. 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From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has 8 different shows with expert hosts to help make the right moves with your money. Watch online at tfnn.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be. TFNN Educating Investors This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com Ok we're back online folks with Shane Smollin the Wolf Trader and Shane we have a caller from Southern California Mike are you there? Hi Larry, hi Shane nice to talk to you guys this morning What do you got on your mind my friend? I want to start off by wishing Larry a happy birthday we missed it when he was out I was born on the same day as Ralph Elliott July 28th but I don't count my birthdays I haven't counted those since 1976 I give them to people that are 20 years old so they can start drinking a year early That's what I've been doing all these years That's a great idea So you have Tesla on your mind What do you want to know about Tesla? Well where do you guys think it's going? I have a big chart off here and a long term it looks like it's in a consolidation or pullback where do you think it's headed from here? Well we have a lot of resistance up here close to $1,000 a share I don't know how high it got today but I know it's $1,000 but you can't bet against betting against a Tesla is like betting against Shane Smollion you do not want to do that that's all I can give you for advice Mike Well I'd just like to thank you guys for all you do and Shane I love your work too and look forward to hearing from you Thanks a lot Mike and I'll get that $20 in the military just as soon as I collect it at the track Alright Larry, thanks Okay Shane go ahead my friend How are you doing Larry? Good to see you back Yeah, living the dream baby on the green side of the grass one more time Wonderful Alright I want to start out with some key points of focus here just some things to lay the groundwork here number one the S&P is not out of the woods so sorry people I know it looks pretty good here with this little rally we are not anywhere close to being out of this bear market S&P gold, Bitcoin likely to all decline together on the next leg down so when this next leg down comes in the bear market I think they're all going to go down together that's what happened during COVID I think it's going to happen again now gold is in trouble it's in a seasonal rally right now if we get to that it's at the end of the presentation I'll get to that but the first whiff of inflation slowing down is likely to cause a collapse now we saw gold during this big inflation run of COVID and it didn't do so hot and so now it's in this decline and I'm of the opinion based upon multiple cycles that gold has a long way to go here to the downside and natural gas I would keep an eye on that guys because the fall is coming we're just a couple months away from the fall and Europe has a big problem with the Ukraine-Russia situation so those are some key points of focus just I wanted to lay out but I also want to lay out some key seasonals here just to touch on multiple markets just to kind of let everybody know what we should be seeing so first of all gold is at a seasonal peak this is its strongest period from late July to early September so it should be rallying based off of what it's doing it looks pretty weak to me and the larger term cycles I have them when we're talking about 12 year 29 year I have all of these headed lower they're just topping now they're doubling lower so I'll watch for gold watch for a peak in gold the grains in the natural gas peak in mid-September typically but the Russia situation might shift that natural gas it might keep going oil same thing peaking in October but the Russia oil is hitting a low today in the seasonal pattern but Russia might shift it and it could shift either way or things persist as they are likely it could cause it to run up bonds have a downward seasonal through December bitcoin is down bitcoin just had a major cycle high that just came in on the last few days and then S&P bottoms in September October I'll get into that that's dealing with the election cycle so we're going to talk a little bit about the election and how that affects the S&P because some people have been asking me about that because we're in a tightening phase and we're in a technical recession so I'll do my best to answer all those questions but first of all inflation this was a headline yesterday consumers expect inflation to slow down which is a big win for the Fed I'm not sure how to interpret that if the opinion of consumers really means anything but it is an interesting headline here I do think we are getting a cool down in commodities I'm going to show you some evidence of that but the problem with the inflation is that the inflation we have other areas that are sticky so commodities are starting to cool off it is true I do think the Fed's policies are going to be able to cool off some of these commodities but when you have areas like rent housing the housing market grains being affected by Ukraine you have droughts natural gas with the Russia situation medical care is not coming down eating out is up public transportation is up 23% these are very sticky areas so these are likely to remain elevated and plus natural gas you have to remember when we offered Europe help the EU help that caused our natural gas markets to spike so there are these other areas that are really out of the control of the Fed right now there is also staffing shortages food shortages I notice in the grocery store now when I go to get potatoes they are not there they might be there in bags but the big ones aren't coming I talk to the managers and they are like we are just not getting stuff and that is in some all different types of chains I have been seeing I think it is likely to cool down but not to the 4% target and then of course outside factors there are hurricanes that can come up through the Gulf that can spike oil Ukraine outside of the control of the Fed remember there are rumors of they are burning down whole fields and they are missing whole planting seasons so you have the wheat situation which is controlled by Russia, China and India 40% stimulus could come in if they cut more stimulus checks that could cause inflation there is a drought going on which could cause the price of meat and hogs to go up and then the supply change so there are things what I am saying is it is not a uniform market like it was before and there are certain areas that are likely to stick and because I don't think it can get down to that 2-4% I don't think we are going to have another round of QE anytime soon and I think the Fed is going to likely continue this tightening phase now what I want to show you here these are trades of multiple markets so this is not just one like S&P or something this is looking at about 20 different commodity markets, financials, bonds these are trades and the long trades were actually dominating and then all of a sudden when we hit May to June the long trades stopped working and all of a sudden the short trades start working and to me this is a sign that the bear market is starting to become entrenched across multiple markets so that's an interesting shift I noticed that so again S&P is on this little bounce here but if you look at all of the markets together we are starting to see more of a short bias now on the market so I think that the bear market is now finding its way and the inflation is starting to cool a little bit now S&P here let's talk about the election so people ask me this all the time can the S&P rally into the election what would like to do instead of just put a statement out like that let's talk about how these markets behave so we know that usually before elections there's a lot of uncertainty and the markets are usually flat they don't really go anywhere before the midterms until we get to about mid-September to October now some of the reasons why people think this happens is because the polling becomes more concrete at this point people feel more certain about hey it's going to go this way or this way and so typically that's when we expect the low based upon these election years now typically I'm not saying this is going to happen this time but typically the rally continues through the elections and then in year three of the presidential cycle that is the strongest year so next year is the strongest year of the presidential cycle and that rally typically goes through April now we have other situations going on right now obviously we have some things that could be different so let me talk about why this could be different the Fed is tightening that's likely to continue I don't see that stopping I don't consider rate pot we'll get to this when we get back right back folks, Shane Smolley at wolftrader.com over the five hours of live education Basil will discuss studying and practicing entry and exit points assessing where to add or subtract from positions utilizing simple technical tools for holding positions longer taking bear charts and adding notations tools and patterns as well as identifying three core formations that repeat in every time frame and much more when you sign up you get a chart booklet email to immediately to start studying and you gain access to his daily newsletter the opening call a $149 value the cost to attend is only $295 and the full five hours will be archived don't miss this live special event Wednesday August 10th with Basil Chapman for all the details and to get started today visit the front page of TFNN.com right now to understand the technology that shapes today's markets and tomorrow's future David White has made his living staying on the cutting edge of technology his weekly newsletter will give you specific recommendations for value tech stocks as well as entry prices, target prices and stops to set for each trade Dave delivers his weekly newsletters every Friday with updates throughout the week you can get the technology insider at TFNN.com for only $37.50 sign up for David's newsletter the technology insider and get an inside look at everything the technology sector has to offer try at risk free today with our 30 day money back guarantee TFNN, educating investors biotech is booming but for how long whether you think the biotech bull has room to run or has run its course trade LABU or LABD directions daily S&P biotech three times bull and bear ETFs visit directioninvestments.com slash biotech today an investor should consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing the prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus please contact direction shares at 866-476-7523 the prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including a possible loss of principle the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor for side fund services LLC this program is brought to you by Vista Gold traded on the NYSC American and TSX under the symbol VGZ we're back folks talking with Shane Smollin most trader dot com can you continue young man sure so why could it be different this time with the election cycle well a couple of things the Fed is tightening and I think there's already certainty I think we kind of know what's going to happen there at the polls are very one sided that you know it's one sided to the GOP so I think there might already be certainty we're in a bear market and then there's a technical recession the yield curves are inverted I know that that that jobs number was positive but I mean technically it's always happened when that's occurred I mean the only thing you could say is a we're coming out of COVID this is a different situation but we'll get to that so the SMP summary so we're still in this expanding corrective flag pattern the August Astro is negative and the worst part is late in the month and then early September and then again this election cycle suggests a low in September October the feds continuing the tightening and the economic contraction continues and the global contraction continues and there's an inversion of yield rates and I think you talked about that yesterday with your guests so these are very strong indications that there's very strong indications that we are in a recession and then this increase in the labor force might actually be a bad sign because people weren't working and they're being forced back into the labor force so it might not it might just be that because the conditions are getting worse they're forced back in they got that got kind of shifted with COVID and then of course the big thing here guys the Fed use and the Fed internals are still in a cell I do look at these daily statistics for the SMP today is a relatively positive day Wednesday is is a worse day and then Thursday Friday are typically strong and then Monday is coming in as your weekday so watch the SMP over the weekend it tends to track with Bitcoin and if Bitcoin is faltering over the weekend it can also drag the SMP down so I always put a high risk on Mondays as a potential gap down day because Bitcoin trades over the weekend it can cause it to trade in sympathy so I'm always really careful about any long days that we take over the weekend now this next chart is an intraday of the SMP this is the correction here and we have some type of an expanding wedge now no matter how you want to count this it's expanding and these types of these types of corrective patterns are very dangerous because they draw a lot of people in and then also on this wedge up here on this expanding part there's a little part of it that's actually contracting and so that actually we actually just kind of hit that time contraction on that now sometimes when you get these contracting wedges you get a violent move to the downside but this SMP seems to be taking its time I think the main thing here is that when we look at all of these rallies they all have retraced in very quick order here and I don't think this one's going to be any different I think we're going to be headed back lower here and I think the quantitative tightening is going to take effect here I do want to point out something here this is a chart showing the Fed internals here ultimately we are heading lower on these internals as quantitative tightening starts I do have a little I have a little cycle down here that I started running this is the I call it the Fed internals biorhythm this is rolling over now and heading down until about August the 19th so I think we have a chance here for this SMP to be showing some signs of topping here I have multiple signals coming in here now the pink signal here is the optimized Bradley the green signal is the double lunar and the black one is the planetary speed so what this means when we get a clustering like this a lot of times that tends to do a better job at marking these turning points in the market so I think that the SMP is definitely definitely vulnerable here to go and lower here so a couple other things I'm going to look at here the gold miners is still kind of pushing up here it's in this little corrective rally but it's relatively weak you can see that the miners have been weak compared to gold and so I think this is likely to end around September the 1st I think that's when these gold type of stocks and bullion are going to start to roll over now the VIX is an interesting one too because this has been laying on its belly too for a long long time this is a really really low pattern here and typically what we'd want to see at a market low we'd want to see the VIX spiking so we haven't seen that yet so I'm kind of waiting for that to happen now somebody asked about RK Innovations there's an interesting pattern here RK Innovations the FEDGIS has been in the cell since February the 10th but you can see here that there's an 11 wave corrective pattern going on here guys that's super rare and that's the maximum amount of corrective waves that something can make in a pattern if you're looking at like an Elliott wave type pattern 11 waves is called a triple 3 it's super rare and so that's not a good sign and then we also have these bigger cycles rolling over with Bitcoin so I kind of look at RK and Bitcoin that they tend to trade in sympathy so those are just some run down of the S&P and some stocks now gold is an interesting one here so last time before I came I was going to come on the show last time this was the chart that we had I said you know for gold it's really do or die time this is going back to the beginning of July and you can see here that gold has this solar cycle this is the orange pattern here this is the solar cycle here and so you know I was saying gold really has to get going here at this point and so we were at the low of this solar cycle this was back in early July so it really needs to get going here because once we hit the end of August or the end of the end of August basically that's the end of the run for the gold cycle and you can see here on the chart that gold has really gold has had a relatively muted rally so I expected gold to try to do something here between August you know this August period that's when gold gets strong so I expected this to try to get strong I mean it was showing signs that it was really in trouble here but again once we hit this topping period into here I think gold is going to be in trouble and again once we start to see any cooling of inflation I think gold is really going to have issues because gold does not do well in deflationary periods it's supposed to be this inflation hedge so I think it's going to start once that next leg of that bear market gets started we got to look what I'm looking for is when Bitcoin, gold and S&P start going down in sympathy and I think that will kind of give us a measuring point of the next leg of the bear like how like we're kind of in the center of the next leg down on this bear market and so that's something I'm really watching with great interest here so gold is in focus here and again it should be rallying a short term rally but long term I had talked about this before there was a divergence on gold that I talked about this divergence goes all the way back to 2008 and you got to get down to this like 1100 to 1000 level I think that's where we're going and I think it's going to take us a few years to get there I think once we get to this level into here I think gold is going to base pretty well and I think it's going to set up for a nice trade you know could be another 5 to 10 years but I think in a few years your gold is going to be working its way lower here as it tries to figure out like what it is like what is its identity that you know the identity of gold has changed so much since the arrival of quantitative easing and printing of money the Fed has basically said we don't need gold I know we went off the standard but quantitative easing took it to a whole another level and then the arrival of bitcoin really changed what so what is gold you know like gold is kind of an identity crisis right now and I think it's going to have a few years to figure that process out and I talked about this before that we have you know some of these cycles we have this long-term Jupiter cycle coming up on gold and gold you know this is where we are right now and so this peak right here this triple peak we're coming off of this now and this really falls until 2025 this is the Jupiter cycle and then there's a Saturn cycle that will go even further so you know it can bottom before some of these lows but the question is when will it go to the bottom and I think you know the more you put these cycles together you know you put the diversions together you put the Jupiter cycle together you put the Saturn cycle together you put the annual cycle together you start putting all this together they're all kind of pointing down wow very good very good you're going to have to bring these cycles in more than 10 years pal because on my clock I don't think I got 10 left I want to let this folks I want to let the folks know how they can reach you Shane we'll be right back folks Vista Gold owns and operates the largest undeveloped gold project in Australia the Mount Todd Gold project Vista Gold just completed their feasibility study resulting in a 7 million ounce gold reserve Vista Gold has all major permits approved and has retained CIBC capital market assistance in evaluating alternatives in completing an accreted transaction Vista Gold trades on the NYSE and TSX under the ticker symbol VGZ Vista Gold executing a strategy to create shareholder value you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in a stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you the key indices, selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com the opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman wave the Chapman wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman in your inbox every day first time subscribers also get a 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signing up subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today tfnn.com educating investors on how to facilitate trading what are you doing don't forget you can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv that's tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv all right folks I'm hearing your talk about this like and share I'm not going to share All right, folks. So I'm hearing that we lost Larry's Skype connection. So I'm going to go ahead and keep talking here, assuming that everybody can hear me. And I'll just finish out with this segment on Bitcoin. So I meant to talk about S&P gold and Bitcoin today, but this is Bitcoin. I do feel that Bitcoin is in trouble here. Bitcoin is coming up to a major cycle high. And I showed you in an RK innovation graph that there was 11 waves of a corrective pattern. Bitcoin just makes this double lunar cycle high on the fifth. We also have a cycle called the hottest cycle that looks at long-term cycles. That's topping. This is the solar cycle that's topping. So I think Bitcoin is going to have a lot of issues here through December. And I do expect Bitcoin to move in sympathy with the S&P. So again, this is why I tell everybody, watch the weekend. Be careful because if you look at Bitcoin, if you look at these statistics on Bitcoin, Bitcoin has the same pattern as S&P. Look at the worst day of the week. It's Monday. You see that? So there's a five. That means it's the worst day. So be careful with long trades over the weekend and always check on Bitcoin. Thanks, everybody, for joining us. Thanks, Larry. Thank you, TFNN. Have a great day, everybody. I'll talk to you soon.