 Okay, very good morning Thursday the 29th of April. I hope you're doing well and just gonna get up to speed on what's been going on And lots of news to update you on because we had a batch of tech heavyweights report their earnings aftermarket last night I Apple Facebook in particular and as you can see in the center charts here in the NASDAQ and the S&P on the right We've had a continuation of a push higher seen in US index futures in that overnight session fresh all-time highs again For lights of the S&P we've taken out 4200 now to the upsides this also come in combination as well With a slightly kind of dovish short-term reaction to what the Fed said yesterday Which really was not a lot new but a function I guess of some of the market's belief that perhaps they could have kind of spilled over optimism and Any concerns about inflation to something a little bit more hawkish? We didn't didn't materialize they kind of just rolled out there Then they're dubbish stance as they have done in recent recurring speeches and thus that's also provided a bit of Catalysts for the market movement so the dollar still a bit weaker that did propel both major currency pairs yesterday you can see the top left euro dollar and Cable just having a look at a couple of these charts then cables now got a little bit of a platform bit messy Late Asia session just before Europe came in but around that 13950 in the future is going to be quite a key level It was a level that we ran up to Yesterday evening found a bit of resistance But then the kind of Asia pack session just following that through to some degree On that dual combination of the the dovish kind of Maintaining of that stance and the Fed in combination with those good tech earnings Uh, Samsung electronics in South Korea a big cap firm there. They also exceeded expectations Hong Kong actually led shares higher in Asia with Japan shut for a market holiday Otherwise a few other things move the night you did have Of course, Joe Biden gave his his first speech to congress He outlined his 1.8 trillion social support plan Package of tax credits domestic priorities partly funded of course as we know now by these Largest tax increases on the wealthy in America in decades But market already wrapped into that because a lot of the information that was more market sensitive We'd already known of course with that move last week with the capital gains tax Worth noting overnight though did also have comments from a u.s. Democratic senator mansion That person is one of the names that we've kind of highlighted before and the reason for that is because Manchin had said that the trillion dollar proposal from Biden makes him feel uncomfortable And of course, he's one of the key people to watch because of the wafer thin margin that the democrats have Having to rely on command harris is the vp to split the 50 50 vote in the senate Biden for his current proposal would need all of them on board Which is one of the key reasons of why the market's probably on the balance or of the expectation that The kind of capital gains tax numbers that we heard week or so ago probably unlikely to materialize to the to the magnitude Excuse me of The numbers which have initially been tabled. So that's the general vibe of things It's obviously things coming out today that will also be significant You've got the q1 advanced GDP we'll look at in a moment And you've also got a batch of of more earnings in particular aftermarket You've got the likes of amazon pre-market today mcdonalds as well. So a couple of big names as well reporting But a quick look across some of these charts and just looking at the s&p here first We've had that that double top through this week Which we initially came up and tested and has now provided a bit of a on the break pull back For that kind of classic long on the push back up to the asia pack high Which now marks the all-time high at 4203 and a quarter A bit of short-term consolidation at that point, but any further pullback On any short-term profit taking we'll be looking at that 4192 50 So that area of previous resistance now will be an area of probably stronger support If you start looking on the daily bars for the s&p We were struggling a little bit You can see that high that we printed back on the 16th of this month That really had marked the high because we had failed to close On the dailies above 4183 and a half It'd be really interested to see where we close on the daily candle today Can we finish above that point? If so, then I think we've probably got a decent floor for price here buying anything unexpected For the next phase now of either push-up or consolidation up at around this 4200 area so again on the on the on the way back down because I know that The kind of bears get very nervous when we start to see this kind of continuation kind of low volatility environment as as seen in like sort of vicks and we get this one kind of dimensional move I mean, that's what I'd say a lot of this was and then we had that pullback and This is where the bears were kind of claiming victory short term that The market was going to roll over and obviously it hasn't done Help by the Fed now and some of these bigger earnings coming out It's just bumped us over the line again back up to the on the upside But if we ever did get to the point where we do see some more aggressive kind of pullback Then there's plenty of good areas of technical support, I would say lower down Just tracking the these bigger moves to The upside that we have seen probably the most Invocant of all being around that 4,000 as the last kind of line of defense From a percentage wise. What does that look like? Actually, if we go from where we're trading at the moment to there, we talk about a 5% move, which would be You know pretty big But just goes to show that even if we came off 5% Personally, I still wouldn't feel bearish I don't think we are going to come off 5% anytime soon So I mean if you look at it In a proportion of some of these other moves that we had if we go back to the february march period That was about a similar size move to what we're talking So definitely can happen, but I think a lot of these trends will materialize So it's kind of set up as where we're at at the moment T-notes yesterday obviously Got a bit of a boost on the back of the the Fed And and so again, let's let's recap exactly what the Fed said and then we'll look at some of these charts So so here he is the main man Jerome Powell He noted a strengthening economy But basically waved off any talk of a policy shift as soon as at the moment There were two main comments. He made in the press conference that were really the market moving kind of event or parts of that event one was transitory rise in inflation this year would not meet standard for raising rates And the second one is it's not time to start talking about taper And again, we're not really expecting that for a number of weeks down the line till we get to the June meeting Which is about seven weeks away. That's where we're kind of penciling in that more kind of heated discussion about about tapering You know a good point here tim and I were covering this live On the on the live feed in the community at Amphi live last night And I know tim has a kind of different take and view on what he thinks about inflation But you know credit to him. He had some really excellent trades yesterday And I think the ability to be able to kind of disassociate yourself From you know your kind of view that you might have on a macro level and just trade on the basis of The information that you're seeing and so as I say credit to him for being able to execute those trades which Basically were against his view of what he thinks But he's just reacting to the fact that you know the information is here That the the Fed are being pretty clear here that they're not going to withdraw their support anytime soon They're not really phased about inflation. They see it as transitory And so I think a lot of people were thinking like Tim and therefore the market reacted I don't think what the Fed have said is new. I don't think it's going to be long lasting and a lot of these moves that we've had And I think that's already materializing in the yields that we're seeing which are fading a lot of that move I think yesterday's move was purely a function of people getting ahead of themselves thinking that the Fed might change their language And you know as we've seen time at a time and again Whether it be power whether it be yelling That these these individuals always react on the side of caution And accommodation as far as policy is concerned. So We had that like kind of blast higher in a 10-year We've come up to a relative point here As you can see from the the previous support levels the breakdown and then the retest here Was quite nice in terms of the late us session And then we've just faded that move as yields are just grinding back up a little bit as we go into the european Open Gold also did get a boost because as I said currency pairs were lifted by the softening greenback on the back of that FMC reaction And so that we did manage to Well, this was the there was two fold movement really you do often see this in a geographic kind of sense It's the u.s. Initial reaction here to the fed and then asia come in We break above a relative short-term range And then we we snapped higher and got to r1 and then as I said the price is fading a little bit here So the price fade I don't think is that surprising I've definitely been more mindful of kind of closing out any of those short term kind of reaction effect from the fed because again as I said, I think it was down to the markets kind of Slightly offbeat with getting a bit ahead of themselves about where the fed's heads are at It's definitely not the case the fed have done anything different here The fed have just done exactly what they've said they were always going to do from the The number of speeches that they've been delivering before the blackout period that we've seen so there's definitely no surprises there The other chart is just oil We had that positive obviously bullish Infantry data yesterday, which obviously helped things definitely We saw a big run up in prices got up to those highs that we had back on the 20th And then saw quite a steep pullback and we're just Still holding a 64 handle for the time being up 29 cents for the moment All right. Well, let's have a quick run through some of these earnings I've already issued my my kind of morning notes where I go through these in all In a lot more detail, but just giving you the the general flavor apple aftermarket As you can see here was up 2.34 percent In aftermarket trade their revenues just smashed expectations I think as you would expect from apples, they always do 89.58 billion against 77.3 billion expected Max sales and ipad sales, which is something the market was looking at particularly max sales given this whole work from home environment They actually grew 70 percent ipad sales actually were up nearly 80 percent One thing though they did warn on Was that supply constraints are crimping sales. This is to do with with chips that we're seeing on the global shortage at the moment Could crimp sales of ipads and max The cfo did say that that could knock around three to four billion of revenue in the fiscal period of the third quarter Their app store revenue and licensing revenues were up 27 percent analysts were already expecting that to be up 17 percent from a numbers point of view That's now accounting for 16.9 billion dollars of revenue Revenue in china was up 87 percent They also boosted their quarterly dividend to 22 cents from 20 and a half cents And they authorized a boost of 90 billion dollars in existing buyback program. So Yeah, I mean apple just Just getting business done. I guess in that respect. So On the back of that Alphabet story that we had with the pickup in advertising That really helped Accelerate their their revenues. We saw the same from facebook revenues 26.17 billion Expectations were just over 23 monthly active users 2.85 billion touch more than expected They see q2 revenue growth remaining stable or modestly accelerating Facebook actually the best of the bunch. They were up over 6 percent after market and a quick recap other names Qualcomm were up about 5.2 percent Again, very strong numbers Ford though the under performer They were down 3 percent or just over that in after market. They were citing semiconductor shortages And they see losing 10 percent of their plan second half production Some of the rationale for what the weakness in their shares later on today There's a couple of key ones to look out for pre-market Caterpillar, which is always seen as a bit of a bellwether There's just generally for the perception of kind of the appetite and demand on their goods and services And machinery and so on. So keep an eye out for them Then you've got merc mcdonald's brister mire squib probably some of the bigger names to account for and then after market amazon's the main one in focus Bit of talk on monday at the beginning of the week about potential stock split As well, so something to just bear in mind And then you've also got twitter gilead a few other names as well that will will capture a bit of attention But otherwise taking a look at the calendar for today. What have we got in store? Got german unemployment rate and change coming out just before 9 a.m I wouldn't really see this as too much of a of a market mover for any european based asset asset, excuse me And then you've got the german state cpi is coming out throughout the morning And I probably put those in the same category as what I've described for the german employment data I just think let's focus elsewhere. I don't think short Unless these are really spectacular Increases from their previous figures. I don't think they're going to be market movers Neither is the sentiment readings out of the eurozone at 10. They never really move the market So that really puts a lot of emphasis this afternoon on 130 and the reason for that is we get the first reading first look at q1 advanced gdp in the u.s Expectations are for a further improvement As the economy in the u.s starts to pick up and further reopening is materializing as what we've been seeing with improvements in the jobs market So looking at the headline figure of 6.1 from previous 4.3 the range is wide We've got 2.6 at the low to 10 as the most optimistic estimate on the street Now the range is wide because like most data ranges are naturally wider just given the fluidity of the situation at the moment Hence the reason why analysts are quite off the mark In regards to say some corporate earning analysts and data expectations Because of the nature of the economy is evolving quite quickly at this point in time with the reopening happening my overall perception with the gdp number is I don't I don't think it really changes the fed from a policy Timing point of view with their tapering talk. So even if we got a number that was like seven and a half eight and a half percent I don't think that that really accelerates The the taper talk I still think that that really will materialize more in kind of june time when they have that key fmc meeting mid month Obviously with the new projections and so on One thing that could do though is if we get say a seven and a half percent gdp number today That's that's a that's let's say a positive economic growth is happening faster than generally people are expecting But given the fact that the fed have just said that they're not Inflation is transitory and they're not budging yet and it's not time to talk tapering I think you've got to take that as just a natural positive then and and perhaps that just pushes equities further further north At this point Would would be quite an interesting thing to that could materialize this afternoon I would say so it could be that instead of good data being bad Because of the nature then that that means faster tightening I think we know the fed starts now. They've just been explicit yesterday So if we have good data, it might be it's good data and the market reacts in that that fashion That makes sense The other thing we've got is initial jobless claims They are expected at five hundred and forty nine thousand. So remember last week we had five hundred and forty seven thousand Which was a very low number Some of the best numbers we've seen since the initial onset of the pandemic back over a year ago And we're expecting that number to continue to remain around those levels. So That in combination will come out at the same time as gdp Speaker wise a couple to be aware of ecb's de Gwendoz Um, it's probably a main one, but no text release. Nonetheless, we'll keep an eye out eight thirty Then you've got voters Fed voters speaking later as well at four and seven p.m. London time respectively Um supply coming out Italy for any fixed income traders And there's a number of european and uk companies reporting today as well. So aside from the states You do have a couple of notable names here. I'll just bring it up into shop So from france notably, you've got totale one of the largest market cap companies in europe footsie rule dot shell heavyweight in the footsie 100 and then same for the dax You got b asf as well today So all could be meaningful for their respective indices that they trade in All right, that is it going to leave it at that let you guys get on with the session And I will see you in the chat room. Thanks very much