 Many of the issues that you hear about Africa in terms of its future and the challenges that it's facing energy is perhaps one of the the key pillars and How is Africa going to meet the challenges of it's not only meeting its demands, but putting into place reliable generation technology to meet its demands and a lot of the excitement that's going into that is to looking in the area of renewables which means wind solar hydropower and What is unescapable about renewables is that it's controlled by climate. It's controlled by weather and you have to Provide methods you have to provide information that not only tells you The contemporary fabric of of wind solar and hydropower energy resources. Where can we tap into that now? But we also need to think carefully about where we install these Installations and whether or not we can rely upon them over the course of the next few decades under climate change Would one particular scenario present a sizable risk in terms of shifting key resources? one of the technical challenges is going back to the issue of models and The struggle that we the challenge that we always face with climate modeling and impact modeling is what is the appropriate? granularity of our models how Detailed do we have to really get? before we Can provide useful information and so one of the critical areas that we're going to look into is the appropriateness or the appropriate resolutions that we need to to run these models and also provide analyses of Again current renewable energy resources their intermittency how this intermittent behavior Can be predicted or not predicted and how this may change in the future Perhaps the most original and important piece of this work is to try to bridge a gap between highly detailed very detailed process oriented models and more efficient methods so that we can get we can obtain and synthesize and and provide a probabilistic or risk-based projection of of all of these resources and how they may change in the future as probably one of the key novel aspects of this research We refer to uncertainty in the what you might call the dependent variables of an impact model So say you're concerned about agriculture while agriculture relies on many different Variables most of them have to do with weather and climate temperature precipitation And typically in the context of uncertainty We refer to the uncertain inputs of that system as uncertainty the risk is the result you put all these uncertain variables together and you end up with a distribution of an agricultural stress or an agricultural need for irrigation and it's that Distribution of that outcome which we refer to or we think of as this is the risk that climate change imposes on a particular system We as climate forecasters modelers We have to be very careful, and I think very very honest as to the capabilities that we can really provide to people who really need this information and With the framework that we use by providing a Probabilistic distribution of outcomes what we are essentially conveying to anybody who's interested in this information using this information Is that you cannot rely on One Forecast so you run a model and you get one answer and you say well, that's the answer you cannot rely on a Forecast what you can provide is guidance Where is the central tendency of a large ensemble of future? Plausible outcomes. Where is that? Where is the central tendency of that going? Do you need to worry about the tails of that distribution? Do the tails become really wide where? Some of the less probable yet highly impactful Outcomes are really something that need to be paid attention to and that's that is really the essence of what we mean by providing guidance one key outcome is using methods that we have used before is to give Those that are interested Guidance in the futures of hydropower resource Will we see a substantial shift? In the hydropower resources will they become more intermittent are these are these issues that? Need to be planned far enough at advance so that you are either prepared to meet those challenges or that you can adapt to them another key outcome is Also looking at the deployment of wind and solar if Africa Chooses to take on this challenge and really become serious about deploying Wind and solar installations at a very wide scale a very broad scale You need to understand where those resources resources are How do they intersect with? Lands that we wouldn't be able to use endowed lands or lands that are unwilling to be given up For these types of insulations. How does that all intersect now? How that how may that intersect in the future do the wind and solar resources change in the future? They become more intermittent So an area where you may have thought right now as a prime candidate for deployment may not be as attractive in the future