 I spoke with an Ethiopian farmer, this was the 2010 and 11 drought, why is this happening? His response was, I think God is punishing me for not working hard enough. The new report from the Institute for Economics and Peace talks about how ecological degradation is deeply tied to conflict and the outbreaks of violence. One of the main findings of the report is that more than 1.26 billion people across 30 countries live in both extreme ecological risk and low levels of resilience. The report found that at the end of 2020, 82.4 million people were forcibly displaced. That's the highest number on record. You've written about how people tend to move when environmental pressures become too great in the past. Can you talk us through the complex relationships between climate change and human mobility? We know that last year, there were close to 31 million internal displacements on account of the impacts of disasters and they are anticipated to worsen with climate change. So we would anticipate that we will see greater movement each year and that's already comprising 75% of internal displacement compared to 25% on account of conflict. Climate change alone doesn't trigger movement, it's always in combination with other factors. Unprecedented drought, food scarcity in the backdrop of conflict, vulnerable groups facing even more precarious circumstances and then you put climate change and increasing or more frequent disasters or more severe disasters into the mix and you've kind of got the perfect storm. So another way of looking at it is that climate change multiplies vulnerability. We often talk about climate change as a risk multiplier because very often it's the people who are already in marginalised or impoverished conditions who are going to be the worst affected. We need to have an eye on this now. This is not a future problem, it's a current problem and we need to be addressing it and planning for it now. Even if emissions were to stop today, we're still going to see worsening disasters for some period of time yet and we know that there will be some displacement. If you look at some of the most conflicted countries in the world, they've got the worst ecological scores. The one with the worst ecological score in the world is Afghanistan, it's also the least peaceful. Back to 2019, the two countries in the world were most water conflicts were Syria and Iraq. What happens is you get the ecological degradation, you get insufficient cycles, you get an ecological degradation, that leads to some conflict, conflict breaks out and then eventually you get to a point where the state fails and that's really where you get a tipping point. Syria where you have this regional multi-year unprecedented drought at least in modern times that caused hundreds of thousands of people to move from rural areas into cities where they were a factor in the Syrian revolution which then saw massive refugee movements into Europe which contributed to the UK's exit from the EU. So you see the scale of these events causing huge displacements and contributions to conflict as well. Can you tell us a bit about what you experienced and what people living in these at-risk countries felt were their biggest challenges? I've seen wonderful examples of humanity and people just doing amazing things in spite of the fact that they have absolutely nothing. One example was visited, Ethiopians spoke with an Ethiopian farmer through an interpreter as well during this, this was the 2010 and 11 drought and it was the third drought in less than a decade and I asked this elderly Ethiopian farmer if he remembered when he was a child ever having a drought of this magnitude and there have been three of them now in less than a decade and he said he could only remember one in his life and he said his father took them into the bush and they lived on bush food and that's how they survived. Well when I looked around there's no bush left anywhere near this fellow because of population growth and development so that key coping mechanism was gone so I said well why now you see three of these events in less than ten years why is this happening and his response was I think God is punishing me for not working hard enough so now he was going to work even harder even though he had no responsibility for these developments which were very clearly linked to climate change particularly the failure of the short rains where here was this farmer who had nothing left and he was going to work harder.