 Welcome, traders, to another TICMA Weekly Market Outlook for week commencing the 4th of April with me, Patrick Mumberley. The focus this week for global markets above the concerns regarding the conflict in Ukraine, the most important development really from a financial markets perspective is going to be further revelations of what the FOMC officials discussed at their important meeting three weeks ago. Three weeks have passed and so now we face the music when the minutes to the FOMC meeting that was held on March 15th and 16th arrive on Wednesday. Powell was referencing the discussions held at this meeting on balance sheet plans. He noted that they've made excellent progress on the plan and are in a position to finalize and implement that plan as soon as their next meeting in May. Framework will look familiar to people who saw this the last time but it will be much faster and is coming sooner in the cycle according to Powell. His referencing plans to begin unwinding the Fed's massive $8.4 trillion portfolio consisting of $4.9 trillion treasuries, mortgage-backed securities of $2.7 trillion, inflation bonds of $388 billion and bills of $326 billion. Let's anticipate the Fed's pursue a much faster pace of unwinding of this portfolio than was the case the last time they went down this path in 2018-2019. Watch for guidelines if not explicit measures of the size of the roll-off caps that the committee may be seeking this time. Define as the share of maturing securities it has purchased that it may be willing to retire versus being reinvested. Also watch for potential dialogue around the members think that they may be the ultimate target size for the balance sheet whether expressed directly or more subtly in terms of pace and duration of roll-off caps. Well, the FMC minutes will dominate the US calendar this week. Other reports include the factory orders for February, released on Monday and are likely to be soft in what we know happened to the roughly half of them that are accounted for by the 2.2% drop in durable goods orders. Tuesday brings out a still wide but perhaps slightly narrowing trade deficit given what we already know about the merchandise component. Tuesday also offers the ISM services index for March that may rebound from the decline witnessed in February. From a technical perspective the dollar index held support at the 9760s. We're now looking for a move back through the prior cycle highs up to the 9950 area and as the internal trend line continues to support we are targeting a test of the 78.6% retracement of the 2021 decline at 100.77. From there we'll be watching the bearish reversal patterns to engage on the short side for now the focus remains to the upside whilst we continue to find trend line support. In terms of the eurozone European markets face little by way of developments in terms of the calendar base risk next week and the focus will probably be on war headlines out of Ukraine and Russia. If any fundamentals matter then the focus will mainly be upon Germany's economy when export figures are released on Monday, factory orders Wednesday, an industrial output Thursday or get updates, albeit for February and hence not yet capturing much of the conflict effects. ECB will publish an account on Thursday of its March policy meeting which surprised the markets with an announcement that QE could end as early as the third quarter. ECB chief economist Lane also speaks on Wednesday on the inflation matter. From a technical perspective the euro dollar found some resistance at the first test just under 112 level as this area continues to cap we look for a move back down now to the trend line support that comes in just below the pivot cluster there at 110 so any closing break of 110 opens a retest of the price cycle of those 10860 on route to a test of the 107 handle. Moving to Japan, very light day to calendar there, next week we get February household spending looking for a 2.5% print there, rising costs and weaker incomes are still set to squeeze spending and then we are also looking for February current account balance and lift in the import costs are probably offset gains coming from investment income so pretty light calendar there, watching for any more updates from the Japanese Ministry of Finance with respect to the market action that we've seen in the end so paying close attention to the wires for any updates with respect to the MRF monitoring the markets and testing rates from trading desks in Japan so from a technical perspective we tested and held the 125 and now looking for pullback into the 120 level from there we watch for bullish reversal patterns to re-engage on the long side looking for a retest and break of that 125 at this stage it would take a loss of the 11820 to suggest a deeper pullback hoping to move to the 11440 ascending trend line support. Moving to the UK, the UK economic calendar is relatively sparse and includes the final services PMI on Tuesday, reading from March and construction PMI on Wednesday, BOE speakers include Governor Bailey on Monday, Deputy Governor Cummings also on Monday who voted for no rate change at last meeting and Chief Economist Pill on Thursday. It's not clear how much discussion there'll be on monetary policy in these speeches in contrast to the Fed, the Bank of England rates setters have sounded more cautious about the policy outlook after raising interest rates in the last three meetings but with the inflation set to increase by an 8% in April and potentially further later in the year it appears that more interest rate increases are likely including at the next policy update on the 5th of May noticeably the day after the Fed meets. From a technical perspective, Sterling continued to find supply just below the 132 handle. I'm looking for a breakdown through the prior lows 130 to get a test of the projected descending trend child support just below the 129 handle. At this stage we really need to see a close back through 13330s to suggest a more meaningful base has been put in and then we start to think about a test of the descending trend channel resistance but for now focus remains on the downside and last but not least Australia down under really main note of interest is going to be the RBA next week with markets pricing lift off in June. RBA guidance will be key delivered on Tuesday while it keeps policy unchanged for now and election in May lies in between now and then having ended its QE bond purchase program in January the RBA now faces rising pressure on inflation and wages. Governor Lowe has probably stated that the RBA will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is substantially within the 2 to 3% target range and that is too early to conclude that it's substantially within the target range whether that belief still holds as true now in the face of the war effects upon supply chains and commodity prices this will all come to light and be tested at this meeting. From a technical perspective Australian dollar found some supply at the 75.30 level as anticipated now look for pullbacks into the pivot cluster here 73.90s watch for bullish reversal patterns to re-engage on the long side looking for a test of 76.30 equality objective versus the 71.60 swing low. As always traders plan the trade, trade the plan and most importantly manage your risk. So next week thanks very much