 I said on Monday that I think that week six was shaping up to be my favorite main say we've had so far this year for DFS and we're here on Thursday and I kind of still think that's the case we've got some running backs we can feel pretty good about lower range guys we got some games we feel good about stacking we've got high upside quarterbacks high upside tight ends can we jam them all in I don't know but it's kind of fun I'm excited to break things down from a DFS perspective let you know which guys were targeting which guys we might be a bit lower on and getting you set for the week six main slate over on Welcome on into the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire that's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire.com. My name is Jim Saunas I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire.com joint here as always by Brandon Goodula he is the senior managing editor of number fire.com Brandon week six cometh how you doing Good you know sometimes this this latest is reminding me sometimes of when I try to explain to people what I do for a living and you have different like gradations of like I work in sports analytics. You know I can go that route I can say like I do you know what fantasy football is that's like the flow chart it's like the starter and they don't then I just say I just work in sports. I had someone I told someone I work in DFS and or daily fantasy and betting and they thought I was like hitch I think I might have talked about this to talk about this. I don't know what any of this means. Have you seen a hitch with Will Smith. He's like a date doctor. Actually yeah I think so. Okay so I said daily fantasy and betting and they thought is a betting and that sounds PG 13. No no no no no I'm a nerd who looks at spreadsheets all day. That's not my thing. You gotta be predisposed to think that way. That's kind of a leap but yeah anyway. He was an elementary school teacher. I don't know if there's a correlation there. Long story short sometimes when I just try to explain to people what fantasy football is if they follow up usually I try to back out of that conversation. I get the default like trying to back out of conversations like that's your baseline for sure. But you know sometimes you get the oh so you just like why don't you just play the best players. And I was like I think that that fits this week just play the best players. Yeah I agree. Let other people make mistakes and I think that's something they might do. Looking at some projected roster race this week we might see mistakes out there. We'll break those down. We'll let you know why we're not on those guys and get you set for week number six here on Fando. But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast because NDA just around the corner. We've also got twice weekly NFL shows PGA as well NASCAR for Vegas coming up tomorrow that'll be up there homestead next week that Martinsville then Phoenix a lot of fun who could possibly hate on that. All that good stuff here on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed so go get that wherever you get your podcast hit subscribe. And if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well. Fandal and GMC are back to bring you the GMC Sierra mountain climber pick up a free to play contest series that gives you a chance to win a share of $10,000 in Fandalside credit every Sunday courtesy of GMC. Here's how it works every Sunday during the NFL season. You'll have a chance to answer questions based on the days 1 p.m. and 4 25 p.m. Eastern games. The more questions you answer correctly the higher up the mountain you'll move if during any week you answer every question correctly for a perfect score. You'll reach the summit and when your share of $10,000 in site credit the contest series is now live so head to fandal.com slash free slash contest slash GMC to start climbing the mountain fandal.com slash free slash contest slash GMC. Let's take into the slate overview for week number six and brand I think that honestly everything we said Monday holds where it's a slate where we have a lot of mid range running backs who are in phenomenal situations. Despite being underdogs which we'll talk about later on we've got some high end quarterbacks high and tight ends and the question is how do you balance those things. So that's my slate overview is that what is standing out for you this week. Yeah I mean we have a lot of running backs that historically at the top of this you know player poll we'd say we got to play you know the I'm not going to say Nick Chubb but assuming say quans good to go like say quan McCaffrey for that Dalvin but like for that and Dalvin have some interesting roles. So I think that it's a case of like let's double check make sure we're okay not being as heavy on those guys but honestly the overview for me comes down to receiver. I started receiver for like 30 minutes this morning trying to figure out which three guys to recommend as loves it's not necessarily because the top of the position isn't appealing we have appealing names up there but if we want to play Travis Kelsey and Mark Andrews a tight end if we want to play. Those high upside quarterbacks even with like some mid range value at running back like you got to get some value receiver somewhere. But I think it's really I think receiver could honestly make or break the slate because it's very easy to guess wrong and overhype some guys with bad roles. And I think there's at least one guy that we talked about a little bit on Monday and like Randall Cobb and I'm not quite there anymore. But I did say I wanted to take a deeper look and I think that like figuring out value receiver is a big part of the equation for me this week. Or finding out if you can avoid value receiver. You won't be able to avoid entirely but can you limit your exposure to that pool of players in general. So that would mean most likely either using Geno Smith a quarterback or foregoing Kelsey and Andrews a tight end which is a scary proposition because you're betting against Lamar betting against Mahone. Spending against Allen in amazing game situations and the odds they hit are pretty high this week if they hit they hit. So I think that it's scary but there are a couple of different ways to play this will break down those and get you set for this late here today. Let's start things off though with some injuries sounds like scholar Thompson will start for the Dolphins this week to his back at practice and Teddy Bridgewater sounds like he'll be active. But Thompson is a likely starter Adam Schepter reported the team is optimistic that Terry kill will be good to play where he most hurt mispractice Wednesday with a knee injury. That kind of happens a lot with him so not a huge shock but are you interested in any of the dolphins with Thompson as he assumed started this week. Let's talk about this game in the transaction with the pace. Should we circle back or should I just just a brief thought here we'll circle back later. I'm always OK with Terry kill if I can get him in I think most are it might be in a little bit in play if he's healthy just just because of the trends that they that they had with with Thompson under center. But that's about it. I think this game is rough. I I want to focus on better games like I like Terry kill and I like Jalen waddle but if the opportunity cost is for going Marquise Brown in a very good game for going. Diva Samuel for going Tyler Lockett DK Metcalf. I'm OK being a bit lower than the models love Diva this week. They love Diva every week. Not they've caught on to how to project him right. Anyway, Mack Jones. Working out. Not great. We'll talk about that later too. He's got an unlimited session Wednesday with his ankle injury might return to face the Browns Bill Belichick revenge game. By the way, just keep that in mind. Damian Harris is likely to serve the hamstring injury even though he's limited. The Patriots are just given double barrel middle fingers. They know he's going to sit but they're just doing this to mess with you. So how does Mac versus Bailey Zappi impact your interest in reminder. Stevenson to 75 assuming again that Damien Harris sits which I think we can do. Usually quarterback play does impact I view an offense a lot. I don't know if it does a ton in this instance. You know we're dealing with small samples early on in the season. But let's just say none of the Patriots quarterbacks have been particularly good or even average. So I don't view it as like a huge change one way or the other. Maybe that's just me but I have a feeling that you think it's about the same. Yeah. Like I think that they've been competent enough under Zappi where we're not saying this team is a crossoff if we're going to get a featured running back which I think we will get reminder Stevenson. So Stevenson is one of those mid range running backs who we should adore this week. Zappi has been fine honestly on his 39 drop backs this year. So I think it's OK regardless. It would be an upgrade with Mac Jones over Bailey Zappi. I'd feel better about Stevenson but I'm going to be very high on him regardless. I agree with that. James Winston returned to a limited practice on Wednesday. He has missed the past two games of the back injury and didn't practice at all last week. So this is an improvement for him. But Michael Thomas Chris Olave Jarvis Landry all sat Landry should be fine. But Olave and concussion protocol Thomas Adam Schafter tweeted that he thought Thomas would play this week. He didn't say thought he has more conviction in things than I do. But are you seeing anything worthwhile in this offense with so many guys banged up. I wouldn't. I would like Olave to come back just because there are almost no good plays in the 6000 range specifically a receiver. I'm not saying there are no good plays but having him open up would would really make me take a longer look at that range in particular. But but Olave he's got a forty one forty eight percent area share since week two. I know that we got to adjust for all the injuries and everything but it's clear that they want to get him involved. I think that would be appealing. I'm probably not going to go at any of the other receivers and unfortunately I think Alvin Camero's salary jumped up too much for me especially with. I'll take some back. I mean I think that I'm not worried about that as much because Camero's Red Zone role has still been pretty good and like find me a guy who can't get pilfered at the goal line. So I don't I don't care as much about Taysum honestly. It's more so about the salary which you alluded to eighty one hundred dollars for Camero teams banged up facing a Bengals defense that has played really really well this year. So I'm OK being a bit lower on that game in general and that team specifically T Higgins this practice Wednesday with his ankle injury seems likely that he plays. But clearly he's not healthy healthy yet. Let's assume that Higgins plays but it's still banged up no full practice Friday. Marshawn Lattimore Iffy on the opposing side. Would you be interested in Jamar Chase for tournaments if we get those stars to align. Yeah I think you'd have to consider it because anytime a superstar receiver goes overlooked. It's it's got appeal in the FS because he can lead this slate in Fandall points. I have him seventh among all receivers and expect the Fandall points for game fifth among receivers on the slate but he is underperforming that. I would not. I can't play T Higgins because right you know he might just stand on the sideline. I do think that Tyler Boyd Hayden Hurst could be a little bit interesting if we like this game more because they're look we got two two phenomenal games. And unless you just stack those games you're going to be looking for other stacks secondary stacks like there's no reason this one couldn't be you know the third best game of the week or the best you know the best game of the week. But it's it's a way to as we as we say like being different by playing Jamar Chase without being like stupid. Also his salary is not bad. Chase's salary is eight thousand eighty one hundred dollars and like he's in a range with Stefan Diggs kind of Marquis Brown is there in one of the better games surrounded by Debo lock at Metcalf. I don't think even if Higgins sits we'll see Jamar Chase get super super popular so. He wouldn't be a core play for me just because my core revolves around stacking the games I want to stack and this will not be that but he would still be someone I'd actively try to squeeze him in at times in order to make sure I have exposure to him. If we if we don't get Higgins would you play Tyler Boyd. No. What do you. I think I am light because of the salary. What's the salary. Six thousand which is probably too high specifically for Tyler Boyd. But it is very helpful this week because we have under salaryed running backs so I can I can overspend on some guys at other positions. And with first looks anyone below at or below six thousand receiver it's hard to find the counterpoint to my saying no to Boyd would be that he has three times as many do targets Michael Pittman this year so. You can go that route it is three but that's still three times as many as Michael Pittman. A bit of a surprise to me but Jonathan Taylor mispractice Wednesday due to his ankle injury I thought he'd be good to go and he's not. Naheem Heinz limited following his concussion it makes it seem like Naheem Heinz might actually be more likely to suit up than Taylor which I'm honestly pretty surprised by but if that were to happen where would you wind up on Heinz at fifty five hundred dollars. Yeah I thought for sure based on how it looked that he would be kept out based on other happenings in the league. Yeah the models would love him at fifty five. I would I would understand it he did play the first three offensive snaps in that game. What's that get two targets as well in those first three snaps and he had every single opportunity. It's unclear like how much of that would stick now that he's like would be coming off of a all concussions are serious like yeah yeah but a serious concussion. Yeah yeah. I would be open to it. I usually try to avoid second time around divisional matchups as much as I can we already get one this week with the Colton Jaguars which is strange for week six but. That salary would come with enough reprieve to play Kelsey I'm not saying Heinz would be in a in my main lineup or a cash game lineup. But at that salary I think it's worth taking an extra look what are your thoughts. Yeah I think that so I think Devin single Terry it seems like his track can be popular this week sorry Devin single digits is tracking be popular. I prefer Heinz over single digits by a pretty wide margin personally. Yeah but it's also I feel a lot better about Kenneth Walker at 65 of who better breeze Hall 71 and Steven 75 so would I be OK taking that that reduction in order to get an upgrade elsewhere. Probably at times yeah I think I would use Heinz if that were the scenario but it is a downgrade Phillip Lindsay got banged up I think at some point last week. He wasn't at the open portion of practice and the bummer is he's not on the active roster because he's on the practice squad. So he's not on the injury reports we don't know what's up with him we don't know if he got in the limited practice or what. I don't know so it's a weird situation it's a messy one if JT does play how much do you downgrade him now knowing that he couldn't practice Wednesday because I think that actually does negatively impact him for me. So Jim and I are going to talk about three running backs in particular a lot. They're just our guys this week we're monitoring Steven's and breeze Hall Kenneth Walker. I thought that JT was fourth or even you know above just in that like top tier because the salary is what it is and his workload has been you know for the most part good and if Heinz was out I was thinking we're receiving work if he's not going to be 100 percent. I can't really consider him for like the cash game lineup. I'm still nervous because at a certain point some of these some of these backs who have their salaries go down are going to have their classic games because not all of them have drastically different workloads than they've had in the past. Taylor is still capable of that but with the the divisional matchup again the Colts didn't look particularly good and this one was a week two. I thought they look great. That's someone who had the Jags money line. I thought they look great. Huge fan the way they played. So I would say like a pivot to Taylor but I don't really know if I'm playing any Jaguars to bring it back with so I'm probably going to be very low on Taylor when I thought I'd be a lot higher on him. Yeah I am far more likely to use Heinz if there's no Taylor than I am to use Taylor if he gets like if he gets a full practice Friday sure I'll get some. But like it's it does downgrade him for me the fact that he's in practice Wednesday. It's just one of those things like it's easy to stay here and say now but like. I think the one thing that could change it is if he like magically returns to a full practice Thursday where it's like I was just resting up and like you know blah blah blah that would actually change my tune. So keep an eye on the injury report because that should influence things for you. Jags defense has also been pretty good against the rush this year so that's worth keeping in mind as well. Kyle Pitts returned to practice Wednesday with his hamstring injury. He sat out last week but how would you view Pitts if he's able to play against the 49ers. Look if you have Kyle Pitts in your season long teams it's his path to a ceiling just like with one or two downfield targets if he gets them is still enough to like keep playing him. It's not bad enough we're benching him over like other options in season long but this is not what we're talking about. We're talking DFS here and I have a really hard time talking myself in to Pitts. Like I comprehend how the ceiling is still there but San Francisco has actually been really good against tight ends fifth and adjust the fandal points per target according to my numbers. I don't think I could play him unless I'm trying to play like 49ers on the other side. Yeah their defense is pretty banged up right now but it sounds like Nick Bose is actually going to play potentially. I think he practiced on Wednesday. That was kind of a surprise to me. The secondary is more banged up but it's not like there are no guys down there with a path to yardage upside like Kittle in that same game. Like if you want to use an underperforming tight end why not just use George Kittle instead. David and Joe could 59 actually has yardage upside. You go with the target guys and Higby and Hertz but like not a lot of upside there so I think for me I'd rather go elsewhere. Specifically in Joku I think it's my favorite lower salary tight end for this week. The Cardinals backfields a mess. Darrell Williams won't play this week. James Conner didn't practice Wednesday with rib issue. The Cardinals are going to guarantee 100% guarantee game time decision will be the label on James Conner heading into Sunday. I can guarantee it. I can see it now. So we're likely heading that way but how do you know Benjamin if both Conner and Williams ultimately wind up sitting. Yeah so this game could get pushed back based on the baseball schedule of the Mariners and is it Astros right. You watched the game. I actually did not. Mariners Blue Jays. I thought you watched this week too. No I said I was going to but I didn't. I got real bored real fast. I've run some old wrestling. So that game could get pushed back to a 530 start. It would still give us a little bit of time to figure out based on an actives like how to switch things around. But you really got to be around for that. I think Benjamin's at 6300 is in the conversation. However I think he would be part of Game Stacks only. I don't think that there's enough there to want to go to him. Over Walker I think that's getting too cute. Keonti Ingram would play right. Yeah it's picked up Keonti Ingram and Dynasty League I think. I don't know. I picked him up somewhere this morning. I think you would factor in at some point. Game Stacks only I think for Benjamin. Benjamin versus single digits. Probably Benjamin. I might go single digits there but it's at least a thought. Benjamin versus Heinz I'd go Heinz. Heinz I'd go single Terry too I think. Yeah who? He's going to score. No he's not. He could score. I'm not going to play him. He's going to score on like a little dump off from the 10. He's going to get like 14. He's going to be fine. And then I'm going to be in the first half. Yeah you're right. It's going to happen right away. Oh gosh what have I done. They're going to get in the red zone. He's out there and then they don't even look his way. It is what it is. I'm not going to play him. I mean, I'm going to play him. I'm going to go Baron and still give him to the 10 Fandel points if I could same game probably that on Fandil I would. I would happily without a doubt. Speaking of the bills Isaiah Mackenzie cleared Concussion Protocol. It will be good to go against the Chiefs. He missed last week. Gabe Davis went nuts on just six targets. But like that's what he can do because he's game freaking Davis. do market share like his highest single game market share this year for targets by last week honestly it was it was 16.7% on six targets he's got two games of six targets one with five one with three I understand that those are hyper efficient targets usually yeah but like that second touchdown I mean first of all the first touchdown I'm not taking anything away but like he just ran past everyone which he has the ability to do yeah get that last year against this team again like I I before I even say I understand like the oh take away all the good plays and like what do you have like yeah if he didn't just run past everyone for a 98 year touchdown and he also didn't one hand like a disgusting touchdown that probably was like past interference I'm not gonna see through the flag on that but it looked like it was past interference like there's a there's a path to a game where he gets four targets five targets six targets and just doesn't catch those ones and he gives us three fangirl points yeah it's scary yeah definitely within the range of outcomes I think for me like that's why for a catch game I would not touch him like the usage is not there for that but like for me for tournaments all I care about is ceiling and his ceiling is better than everybody in the 6000 range despite the low usage it is well maybe not well who if a larvae were like fully healthy I would say a larvae but like outside of that it's very definitively game so like I don't care about about floor ignore the floor I care about like ceiling his ceiling is very very good I think the the concern is does he want to be more popular than he should be once we factor in the fact that McKenzie is back this week I don't think I don't think he's shaping up to be very popular yeah I don't know if that's I don't know it could be wrong but I think that I've kind of gotten the same vibe because everyone's like oh I'll just go to Stefan Diggs I said that Monday so like I'm part of the problem there but like so the thing is what I anticipate happening is that the the various optimizers are going to love digs you know they're well they're going to love digs but they're going to like Walker they're going to like breeze they're going to like Naeem Hines if he plays and Taylor doesn't like and then you naturally have more salary to spend a receiver and like we're on on board with that this week for the most part yeah um but that's going to leave like a pretty glaring gap in that 6000 range where nobody like really jumps out so I don't think Davis will be that popular so I have a little bit less fear of like not playing him I am going to play him in game stacks but like what we're talking about is like the difference between tournament lineups and like cash game lineups I think he's a great tournament play I would not play him in a head-to-head I would not either I agree with that great tournament play I thought he'd be more popular than he's tracking to be right now I'm surprised maybe that's because DFS players are smarter than I was giving them credit for and they realize okay it was kind of flukey but also like he can have those flukes because of the way he gets used because of how good his quarterback is because of how good he is because of how good this game is so I would go back like uh I was looking at like two high defense numbers uh this morning because I was worried about MBS in that game and I was like yeah the bills play a lot of too high the team that has faced the most past attempts against too high this year is a cheese so I was like oh man does that does that ding me on gade because he had so much downfield work that I remembered last year when cheese are playing too high in that playoff game and Josh Helen said bleep you I'm throwing over the top and he just torches everybody behind too high I'm like oh that's how you break the system Gabe's down there somewhere yeah um yeah I think with Gabe specifically he's not gonna be that popular the the optimizers are gonna like uh guys like single Terry most dirt Heinz gonna love Walker and that's naturally gonna allow you to if you're you're you know you're saying you know single Terry's gonna be great at 5700 you're not gonna play like it's not gonna be you to Gabe Davis it's gonna lead you to more to like the the higher-salary receivers exactly I agree that as well uh Rashad Bateman his practice again Wednesday due to his foot issue how much would Bateman sitting impact your view of Lamar Jackson against the Giants um their EPA per dropback splits are really worrisome with him without Bateman it's a minus 0.2 without him and a plus 0.15 with him but Lamar's had like crazy touchdown numbers he was way overperforming one of the highest uh overperformance numbers since like 2018-2019 based on what his EPA per dropback was but the passing success rate itself has been stable and that's a better metric to look at in small samples so I don't think it's a huge difference I think it's just big touchdown swings uh for Lamar so I wouldn't downgrade him too much if anything it might help me because then I could I'm obviously I like Lamar I like Mark Andrews but it also kind of gives me access to Devin DuBernay so kind of I'm I'm okay with it I am too for the DuBernay aspect of it his role is pretty good last week without Bateman um it would bump Andrews as well which he doesn't need to bump um he doesn't he's absurd like gosh um his target's just nuts yeah like I was looking it up yesterday I was like is that right I thought I had like a number messed up or something but no it's true it's like 34% with like tons of high leverage work too he's absurd um so it would hurt a bit but I would still view Lamar as being like I think potentially this might be a hot take but I think Lamar might be the best single entry quarterback on the slate because of how much interest Alan and the Holmes will generate justifiably but we can talk about that later on uh Wanda Robinson got in a limited practice Wednesday with his knee injury Cadarius Tony got blipped he's gone uh he practiced uh Wanda did practiced last week too but he ultimately wound up sitting if Robinson does get the green light any interest for you there in a team desperate for legitimate NFL pass catchers I think it's a kind of a leap to assume that he just comes back to like a role he did practice last week which is why I have a tiny bit more like I think it's at least noteworthy because he practiced last week oh I'm not saying it's not noteworthy yeah okay they need pass catchers and we need pass catchers this week but it also feels like one of the spots where it's we can't assume that he's going to get a lot of work until we see it because they don't have an I mean they when when Shepard's played like they've sort of peppered him but other than that it's been pretty spread outside I don't think I'd get there myself if he gets in a full practice Friday I will have at least one lineup of Lamar Andrews Wandale because Wandale is 49 uh Wandale has potentially get some rushing attempts which you know I love um I'd have at least one share I know that like that's not great process but also it's a do as I say not as I do um I'm just letting you know that I would have non-zero number of wandale lineups what about Scotty Miller 49 no why I don't know I'll talk we'll talk about the buck oh oh name stack uh Wandale and Rondale you know and Gino this week oh love it okay I'm all in let's do this we're not doing a Rondale DJ more stack that that no absolutely not uh Tyrion Davis Price returned to practice on Wednesday he is sad since week two with a high ankle sprain Jeff Wilson good role uh but did lose some work to Tevin Coleman last week how would a TDP return impact to you Jeff Wilson uh can't help yeah oh it's just what it's one of those I mean I know that Wilson uh had a good role like if he's clearly a guy that they trust in the red zone but like Coleman was involved in the red zone too correct he had the first touchdown so it wasn't even like garbage time late it was a the first touchdown and again one thing I probably need to do better is look at the like sort of consensus projections and get a feel for like who's going to be some of the guys who are recommended for like optimal lineups more and I think Wilson's going to be part of that yeah I think you probably will as well based on some early stuff so I agree with that I built out a Lamar Wandale Rondale stack it's pretty launched throwing out there it's not going to be good lineup but it looks fun that matters for something I still have nightmares of the John Ross week John Ross week that happened I don't well I know what I mean I thought he was going to step into a huge role I played a lot of them and he I think played like three snaps yeah well it happens yeah let's move now into the bookmaker info for this week started things off with the marquee matchup bills at chiefs it is bills as two and a half point favorites total is 53 and a half and in the playoffs last year these two teams were bananas the regular season matchup not as fun but the offense this year been very good how high will you be on this game about as high as I can be I love both quarterbacks I probably prefer Mahomes solely for the fact that he should be less popular because he's an underdog Mahomes as an underdog is just weird to think about I understand it but I'm good with it we're going to want to play Travis Kelsey we're going to want to play Stefan Diggs we're going to want to play Josh Allen issue after that is like getting talked into value plays who are imperfect but if you are looking for value plays the best place to do it generally is in games that should score a lot of points yeah exactly and like I want low sourd exposure to games I could go bananas and I think we have routes for doing that this week the via gave David the Devon single terry story no no not using single digits stop it um the team that should score 40 every week don't want his don't want the running back I don't I know I'm saying that's the frustrating part all right right I do want that same game probably though a touchdown and less than 10 vandal points please he's gonna score that touchdown and I'm gonna be tilting he's gonna score two touchdowns and still not get to 18 vandal points because he's the worst um can he burn me probably not but I do at least question it I think he can burn you in if you don't think about it as like pure vandal points and you look at it more as like he can open up the ability to get to the stud tight ends and also like I know the results haven't been there but he can get you like 1415 if he scores think about that but also but also think about that sentence but also get you 1415 if he scores if he scores but if that salary opens up a lot but also burn burns us in the sense of like takes away touchdowns from other players in this game I think it's still reasonable I feel that oh yeah it's reasonable no it's totally it is it is reasonable that's a fair thing to say I just don't want to do it yeah uh I do like gave Davis though Marquez Veldes scant mar sorry Marquez uh I think that's for pronunciation Marquez Veldes scantling I was worried again I was going back to the too high stuff digging into that the bills do run a lot of too high and like you think about Marquez Veldes scantling the way he operates that's pretty scary the one other like crazy crazy too high team the chiefs have faced so far this year is the chargers that's all they do in that game um MVS was tied with Travis Kelsey for the team lead with seven targets he had two deep targets which was most in the team he didn't do anything with them so I don't think he's a great play I think there are a lot of paths to failure but of the guys in the 5000 range I feel best about Marquez Veldes scantling um again I don't feel great about him so it's not a massive endorsement but I think he is my favorite guy down there what are your overall sentiments on MVS well he's one of my loves this week because you had to account for the salary did have season highs and catches targets in yards last week has not scored yet which his red zone rule is not fantastic or anything but he does have the ability to score from outside of red zone um and just eventually if you're on the field you're involved in a game where there should be red zone plays like eventually they won't just throw it to Travis Kelsey yeah like eventually a team has to cover Travis Kelsey near them well but then they'll do a no gray run or a yeah to Jody Foster like you know that is that's a legitimate concern yeah and that's not like it's not just like a haha kind of joke it's like look he might not get a red zone target even if they run 10 red zone plays or however many red zone plays they might get this week so like yeah it's a concern sure but as we talked about on Monday we really got to think long and hard about playing these value receivers because none of them have any floor I know we don't like talk about four but you still you'd want someone to feel like you can at least give me eight if things don't go the right way and it's not the worst none of those guys really have it yeah but I think he is the best play down there I agree and like last week no touchdown against the Raiders and the Raiders are like the best team for Marquess Valves family to face because of the type of defense they play um so it's not a one-to-one comparison but 90 yards in that game I had uh I talked about betting him 12 to 1 to lead the game in receiving yards and he almost got there but then Devote had that second touchdowns like ah 80 um got close but I think he's he is the best play down there but he is still very imperfect so even though I like him most I want to actively keep a lid on my exposure to him and rotate a bit down there like mix in guys like what's Dobbs is Sally Romeo Dobbs 55 okay so yeah I'll rotate in Dobbs I'll rotate in uh Ron Delmore we'll talk about in a second I he's in perfect two but like fine relative to other guys down there so rotating through with MBS uh what about juju because like the reason I looked at the the Chargers game is because like okay like against the style of defense juju should thrive he had three targets in that game and like was he just he looks like kind of checked out I don't know like it's very frustrating to watch him play right now um so three targets 10 yards 1.908 odd in that game if you look at like Mahomes's efficiency splits this year during each pass catcher his numbers to juju are doggie do and that's concerning because it could lead to fewer targets going forward so like I think that juju like stylistically should be the guy but I also just really do not want to do it that account for like picks he's got two picks targeting juju yeah maybe catch it then poser I mean that that if you're looking at like EPA that'll release skew things catch the ball I mean I'd have to go back and watch those two picks to see I'm not going to catch the ball okay okay um I even in game stacks like I don't know how much I'm gonna get there if you want to talk about a guy who really can't burn us I think that's correct I think it's like juju is max yardage this year is 89 uh it's all like similar to mvs in that regard um 79 in week one he's had eight targets in every game but one but like just doesn't get the kinds of targets that you want um looking at their overall target shares so far this year juju has 16 percent of the deep targets uh 16 percent of the red zone whereas mvs is 28 percent of the deep targets and 11 percent of the red zone so I don't know it's probably dumb to go in the s but like I just I can't I can't really talk myself into juju having a ceiling especially at 64 when he's pretty close to Gabe who has a ceiling we know that for sure uh I think Devin Duvernay is a better ceiling than juju as well like it's he should get some carries at least like some creative touches some kick returns my love language is kick returns and red zone rushes for receivers okay let's talk about the quarterbacks here I think that Mahomes is not as good as josh allen but from a from a dfs perspective but I think he's close enough where you can take the discount or you can pivot there for tournaments because it seems like Mahomes will be less popular so although for a cash game I don't know I'd like to get down but I'm not I have to check first so I can get there um for a cash game I prefer allen but I think for tournaments I might prefer Mahomes what about for you yeah I mean they're both fantastic we don't probably don't don't need to spend like too much time explaining why it's more about like the game theory behind it I um I I would prefer to get to allen in a single entry the salary gap is 600 it's not huge uh the bangles defense at 36 is probably like the obvious defense play yeah I might drop down to the falcons at 3000 to get that 6000 to go from Mahomes to allen it's a calcium and revenge game against the falcons I'm not sure if you're aware I just want to let you know about that I'm just saying I'm open to it just letting you know that that's a thing I mean I'm not that concerned about you should be I should no um yeah I think with Kelsey I think because he scored four touchdowns I have a bit more confidence in pivoting to Andrews is being like uh a good pivot although I'm guessing Andrews would be the preferred optimizer play because of his target share so it's not gonna you're not gonna get a huge discount but I think that what one thing that I like is having the homes at quarterback paired with Andrews a tight end because that specific combination will be pretty contrarian I would bet oh but I would honestly like if running back were worse I'd be open to flexing like whoever plays later between Andrews and Kelsey that's how much I like them this week yeah it's fair but I don't need to do it and I really can't do it I think that's fair let's move now to the other 50 point total on the slate that is the uh cardinals at the seahawks cardinals for some reason two nap point favorites total is 50 and a half uh the cardinals have been very frustrating so far this year so how are you handling them here and which seahawks other than Kenneth Walker the third are you targeting I'm gonna start with the seahawks because they're more fun they are um I'm gonna outside of Kenneth Walker I'm gonna target Geno Smith I'm gonna target Tyler Lockett I'm gonna target DK Matt Kafe so okay so I assume that you don't know my stance on Geno pretend I am random person on the street who you're talking to about Geno Smith for some reason yeah how would you explain why you like Geno this week so I think you have a fantastic game environment this week and there aren't many other ones Geno Smith also has very clear stacking candidates with DK Matt Kafe and Tyler Lockett who I think off the top of my head have 28 and 26 percent target shares respectively they are at 28 and 26 with both guys having at least 30 of the deep targets so yeah that's that's nice um Arizona 19th and pressure rate 29th and adjusted past the offense he does have double digit rushing yards in three of his five games that's not like pure rushing upside but in a game that could be back and forth there's a little bit extra there the salary is low at 74 I think it's just a spot where if you like this game and this is not always the case but if you like this game and you like Kyle Murray you should be receptive to Geno Smith because quarterback play usually correlates pretty well with the opposite side we just don't talk about it much because you can't stack two quarterbacks on Fandall unless you're playing super flex so I think that the path for Geno to having obvious stacking candidates you can stack them with Kenneth Walker and get access to like every yard that this offense puts up in a good game I think that there's a lot to like yeah Seattle actually ranks 15th in pass right over expectation based on your numbers which means they're throwing enough they are facing a defense that I don't fear a whole lot Geno does run a little bit he's not looking to run but he does run at times and I think that he has he has a path to can I say 35 points is that too high he scored 31.7 against Detroit that might have been around he had a 49 yards and a rushing touchdown but like I don't think 35 is is outside of his range of outcomes I was going to say 30 I think you could probably get to 35 I could try to look up and see how many times he actually gets there and in my sims but yeah it's reasonable there are no other quarterbacks that I can make a case for as good as that one for a huge game so I think another aspect of this game is that the we we noted I think on the podcast at one point that Arizona was running super slow to start the year that is no longer the case they have sped things up recently from a pace perspective so this game if you look at your adjusted average pace over on Number Fire is the second fastest game on the slate behind Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh which I have no interest in so like it's a kind of fast game we know where to stack it on both sides honestly I think it's really good I'm curious how popular it will be relative to Buffalo versus Kansas City I would imagine not very like how like is it a clear secondary one or is it a 1a 1b if it's a clear secondary then my interest in Gino slash Kyler goes up a bit more I think it's clearly secondary for people I think so too I hope so because I think this game is very I don't think walk walkers not going to be secondary but yeah you know and also if like if Kenneth Walker's mega chalk which remains to be seen that's naturally going to leave Gino Lockett and Metcalf under salary for what they should be I'm fine having Gino pass catcher Walker all in the same lineup like that combination does pop up in perfect lineups pretty often so no objections for me having all that in there and with the market shares for the receivers oh yeah for sure market share in the backfield for Walker like if Seattle puts up 42 like those guys are going to do a lot of that damage you don't have to answer this but you've a preferred target between Lockett and Metcalf or is it just both uh both really if you had single entry if you had to pick or would you just duplicate the lineup I I would do I would likely do that um I think that's fine I agree Metcalf has a better role Lockett historically has like torched the cardinals okay so there's that um I like Metcalf a little bit more um better red zone role 40 percent target share in the red zone lock it's a 13 percent lock it has more deep targets though which is pretty fun um Lockett used to be like this super volatile receiver but he's actually had like again I hate this word he has had a better he's had a really good floor this year I think he has a path to a ceiling that combination where you're not getting floor at the expense of ceiling is really fun so I prefer Metcalf but Lockett very much a really good option as well so cardinal side of this one where we add on Kyler um so like I think for this week I'm going to use at least four quarterbacks which is a little bit more than I want to do I'm going to use Alan Mahomes Lamar definitively likely to use Gino Kyler is that fifth wiggle the the flex guy if do I get there are you in the same range for him yeah I'm with you there uh if I'm looking to pivot away from Alan and Mahomes I'm looking at Lamar I'll find I know like I can't just say I'll find 500 everywhere and anywhere but I will find 500 to get to Lamar even if it means playing the Falcons uh defense I will do that I don't think I'll get to Kyler again it's I'm trying to take like the arbitrage play of like if Kyler puts up a huge game I don't see this one just being like a completely one-sided affair the Cardinals have not shown any of that ability to just like dust the team yeah so I think if Kyler has a good game Gino has a good game and honestly if one of them has a good game and the other doesn't it might be Gino that has the good game and Kyler is just okay uh you can play super flex lineups on Fandall I would died died at both in this game just for funsies uh Marquis Brown's salary is up to 82 but I think that's fair based on the way he's been used Rondale more 56 had eight targets this past week but with Ajay Greenbeam back he did shift back into like that stupid Rondale um role where he's like getting a lot of bunny targets I don't think that's enough to disqualify him at 56 but like it it does make his path to a ceiling a bit more clouded I would say and then Zacher it's at 6000 how do you feel about those three um Brown I think I can really only put into like stacks I don't think I'll be up there in salary very often yeah and if I am it's more realistic that I'm in like the mid mid seven range and I'll like be on the other side of this game with Locker or Metcalf yeah yeah I agree uh Seattle's been like bleeding yards after the catch to receivers they're fourth in yards after the catch allowed and third in expected yards after the catch allowed I think that benefits Rondale um even if he's getting those bunnies and I think Erz is in that conversation of like if you're not playing Andrews and Kelsey you need some path to a ceiling nobody really has yardage upside at tight end aside from those guys and maybe in Joku and like maybe if Kittle returns to who he used to be yeah but Erz then had at least some upside in terms of like he could catch two touchdowns and it came that shoots out he also did have three deep targets last week that's his first deep targets of the year so 16 plus yards downfield didn't do anything with him but maybe that means there is some untapped yardage upside I still don't really have a ton of enthusiasm there for him or Higbie prefer to go in Joku because the yardage use is there but I think he's totally fine let's move now to the Ravens at the Giants the game with the third highest efficiency in my model on the main slate is actually this one Ravens at Giants most of that is Baltimore obviously but they're in third among single offense on this Giants aren't bad like they're not totally dusty in terms of projected efficiency that's the sake one's been playing quarterback I mean it actually is in part because they're really don't rush efficiency being crazy high like that actually is a part of it total is low 44 and a half points the Giants team total is 19.75 so the question here is do you view this game as being good enough to pivot to Lamar and Andrews over that Bill's chiefs game and where are you on sake one in a single entry maybe if I'm building multiple lineups obviously I think it's I think they're the best single entry stack and you just kind of hope that Bill's chiefs hits the total and doesn't go massively over it my question to you is are you stacking Jackson and Andrews yes I don't know sorry well I didn't let you know sorry so you're stacking them in single entry are you also jamming in sake one likely no okay because that was my question and I don't I think I do with no bring back I don't love the idea of that because fair fair I just don't I think that's fair because my process is to have a bring back for my quarterback at all times but I think what I would do is have interlocking so you know Kenneth Walker at running back you run it back with either Rondale Moore Hollywood Brown I'm not going to have a bring back for Stevenson or Breeze Hall but then I have two wide receiver slots and maybe that's a Dave Davis Marquez Valdez scantling stacks and they're like that still get exposure to that game but just not use it via the quarterbacks so I don't I like to have a bring back but it's not a a rule for me it's a preference yeah I could see that and I think with Lamar to he's had 21 42 40 fandal points and then 15 15 I mean I'm not I'm just rounding down to the number there but that's because he was again overperforming touchdown expectations a ton his passing touchdown rate was crazy high the past two games he's had one each has not rushed for a touchdown in either of those games it's basically balancing out so he should be somewhere in the middle like moving forward that should for the most part be your expectation for for all guys always but that's still like 28 30 points very easily for him with some better touchdown luck closer to his average but yeah I think that like we talked about probabilities the odds LMR Jackson's the highest scoring quarterback on this slate not that much lower than Alan in my homes I wouldn't think you probably have that number but but like the actual odds of it I can't think I can't imagine them being that much lower I don't run that one specifically yeah but I do it for a single game but not for the yeah uh Devin Duvernay will he be a guy you use outside of game stacks or just when you're using Lamar I think he will be solely for the fact that I need receivers in that range because as anyone if anyone's been paying attention it's very clear like what our core approach is and where our fears lie and you know it's it's going to come down to like a Duvernay and not Duvernay Andrews but like Duvernay Kelsey versus who like Marquis Brown and Joku kind of 2v2 something like that roughly equivalent I think it's a very fair 2v2 there yeah I think so as well so Duvernay will be if there's no Bateman obviously um I'll have him outside of game stacks but it's kind of similar to MVS where like you see the flaws but yeah you can still justify going that way regardless so I'll have Duvernay outside of game stacks but um their flaws are for sure let's dig now into our trends discussion for week number six starting off with you talking about the Buccaneers because they're facing the Steelers the Steelers stink uh so do not talk me into bringing back here I will leave the podcast and before you do the rest by yourself but what do you see with the Bucs on their side of things yeah I mean like they got a high implied team total we're looking at ways to get access to good offenses it doesn't feel like the Buccaneers are like a FOMO team but you know we're going to be looking at the bills we talked so much of the show already about the Bill's Chiefs Cardinals and Seahawks but like you never want to overlook a team that is in a position to score points uh there are basically two standouts in this regard this week Green Bay and Tampa Bay the Bays holding it down um with you know good implied team totals but situations where we're not really looking into them and I just wanted to kind of check out the Buccaneers and see are we okay kind of missing out if they do hit their potential uh the Bucs are by far the fastest team in the NFL based on my adjusted pace numbers they're in third and pass rate over expectation this game uh is the fastest matchup of the week that's pretty fun we do have a good list of quarterbacks one of the few pocket passers who is still capable of a huge game unless you think that Tom Brady is dust which I just make in a face I'm sure um I didn't say it Brady has that ability still he is passing that expected points per drop back is 0.16 and if I average is 0.06 this year a few just for opponents he's 0.09 per drop back over expectation he's playing pretty well from an efficiency standpoint the touchdowns just haven't really been there he's got 1.4 per game the Steelers are 12th and adjusted pass defense it's not enough to worry me they're 31st in pressure rate which is helpful for an offensive line that's average according to pff and pass blocking grade against three similar defenses should like non-elite defenses Brady is averaging 309 yards and 1.7 touchdowns he is fifth in uh next-gen stats passing score when not pressured but he has suffered six drops in that split maybe like maybe sleepy Tom has had some bad luck uh in in these it's not sleepy Tom Peter Tom prime time games but uh you know maybe there's a little more that underlying and maybe there's a breakout uh ready to emerge I think at the bare minimum he can maintain this offense and maybe a little bit more and maybe we don't want to discredit him just yet the question is like what do we do with that information because I don't think we're going to play Tom Brady this week I can see the case for it if you want to get really different I don't think you have to do that but what about like Leonard Fornette he led the Buccaneers with 11 targets last week despite a snap rate that fell to 61 percent the Steelers are 21st and adjusted rush defense but he's 8500 after a good game as if we look at the receivers Mike Evans has just one game with better than a 20 target share and then it came back in week one he has in-game target share um if you look at his game is played of just 18 percent which is a team high he's still averaging 7.3 targets 79 yards per game 24 red zone share I'm having a hard time justifying at the 7700 last week with you know the injuries that they had going on Scott Miller seven targets uh Fornette had 11 Evans eight Kate Aughton had a 92 percent route rate last week five thousand rates back this week I think oh he is I thought he was going to be out again now he was at practice Wednesday he didn't look there were some videos that were like oh should he be out there but like I thought I thought he I thought he didn't practice that's my bad don't play k probably shouldn't the videos look weird but like is it reading into it is this a super dusty 26 and a half point applied team total or are you tempted at all by any of these pieces like tempted sure but like like I think that it's one of those situations where I ask like could it burn me to not stack the box absolutely it could like Tom Brady could throw for five touchdowns yeah he could do that very easily but what's the probability he hits five touchdowns so what's the odds that I regret it not that high so he kind of needs to have five passing touchdowns me to regret not using him on this slate so we're sneaking too but yeah which he will do but like I I'm okay with being lower on this game I think because I have I like the ceiling potential of other options so much there are a lot of things need to go wrong for me to really regret not using Brady I think I'm with you it was just you know we're looking at the teams we're talking about in different ways yeah hey like the Buccaneers have that I'm I feel less I feel I do feel more worried about Brady in the Bucs like not being on them than I do about the Packers yes by a wide margin I fully agree but the Packers are also in that conversation where it's like hey man they should put out points on the Jets according to like the the bookmaker odds so you don't want to just overlook those teams entirely yeah I think that's it's fair to talk about them but with Lenny a 23.5 red zone share in two games this reduced snap rates yardage 96.5 yards per game I be under and is rushing plus receiving last week whoops didn't go well there um but you know I like other guys more let's talk about some of the other guys right now because we talked on Monday show about loving Oliver Mondrey Stevenson Kenneth Walker and Breeze Hall their workloads are great the one problem is that all three of those guys are actually on teams that are underdogs and I know a lot of people don't want to use underdog running backs so I wanted to dig in and see how much of a concern that should be under the assumption that all three are popular I will note that Breeze Hall pretty low in projected roster rates for this week early in the week very intriguing to me but across the past three years 98 running backs have been popular in the fan dual Sunday million while being underdogs of those 98 23 of them hit 3x value so three times there uh three times whatever you know a 3x value three points per thousand dollars in fan dual salary thank you you do the rest for me please uh you're right three three points per thousands of dollars so like 18 points at a six thousand dollars yeah they had 3x value uh 23 percent rate hitting 3x value the rates uh for popular running backs who are favored 21.3 percent so actually a bit higher for the underdog running backs who are popular if you look at all running backs on at least 1 percent of rosters in the fan dual Sunday millions just viable plays basically the 3x rate for them was 15.4 percent so 23 percent for underdog running backs who are popular 21.3 percent for favored popular running backs 15.4 percent for the position among all viable plays so they outperformed the overall baseline by a big margin and they slightly outperformed their popular favored position dates the other component here is that they all came uh all these guys that were talking about come with mid-range or lower salaries if we narrow that scope of the 98 underdog popular running backs 61 of them had salaries of 7500 dollars or lower of those 61 18 hit 3x value which is 29.5 percent so that's a very big number in general we can feel okay about shock at running back you mentioned that earlier on this year we don't need to pivot that much as much or that position as much we don't need to worry too much at the chalk on that is on a team that's not favored and we can worry even less if that running back comes to the low salary personally this just further locks me into using those guys we discussed who I think are under salaried regardless of their roster rates and again breeze hall might not be popular but I want to ask you how are you viewing them right now knowing we've got the full scope of this slate yeah obviously I like them they're my three core running back plays because of what they open up at the rest of the position I was taking a look down here like sorting by salary and looking at like some some sort of 1v1 situations and looking at like who's a favorite and you know who's an underdog so like we have our Marjorie Stevenson versus Aaron Jones Jones obviously a big a pretty big favorite against the Jets I'm not saying like that just because one of these guys is on a favorite team that he's going to be more popular but I think people would take a look at that and say like you know Aaron Jones as a favorite versus Remandre as a as an underdog also Jeff Wilson versus Breeze Hall I'm seeing Jeff Wilson pop up a good bit in the consensus projections I would take Breeze there straight out 10 times out of 10 yeah he's like classic David Johnson getting downfield work yeah even like if you jump down it's a little bit less with the 6500 range if you look for like pure pivots but that could trickle down into like again Devin Singletary is probably going to be a bit popular because he's on a favorite team in the salaries low so look I looked at the the pivot numbers we don't need to pivot too much at running back the one thing that popped out here is like maybe we're overrating Breeze because he's not popular and generally the consensus is good at figuring out and it's not like I'm not talking projections the projections are fine for Breeze but like the popularity numbers if they're not going to Breeze are we missing something I will say though as someone who had a lot of Breeze and need a lot of Breeze in season long as well last week he could have had a much bigger game if he scored some touchdowns so like if Braxton if Braxton Barris does a better block he's got 30 points so he almost had three touchdowns yeah if memory serves they had five rushing touchdowns the game and he had one and he still scored 26 or whatever fan goal points like they had a quarterback and a wide receiver who had rushing touchdowns like even give Michael Carter his two but like weird um see I think that I uh I think that like the one path to failure for Breeze is that the offense collapses because I mean I think that Zach Wilson has played better than perception the first two weeks but like do I feel confident that he will lead a Jets team on the road in Lambeau no like there has to failure there for sure um do I feel confident enough to feel good about him yes I I love Breeze Hall you had to pick one to fade into a single entry lineup as in like who do you think has like the flimsiest path to a ceiling between Remandre, Breeze and Kenneth who are you picking pure ceiling yeah like it's like that's the thing about single entry is like who has the flimsiest ceiling that's kind of the way that I view it it's not Walker okay I would have guessed him personally you think because the lack of passing in work yeah yeah so like I'm going to use him in single entry but if I were to fade one it might be Walker I'd still be above weight on him he could get scripted out I would say I would say Breeze given the the huge Stevenson is lowest though correct yeah I feel best about him I agree straight okay let's move to your second trend talking about that Miami Minnesota game what you seeing there so I think pace matters we've talked a lot about pace over the years it's it's an important metric but I think it can be really overstated I've probably been guilty of that in the past but we want teams that run plays and like pace matters play play volume correlates to to fandal points pretty well unless there's like super high efficiency and that can be pretty fickle if another team is able to milk the clock so it's not really worth nitpicking like between a few seconds per play in terms of like situation neutral pace or wherever it is but that said we have what could be a fun game or at least there fun names in this game between the Vikings and dolphins but they have the slowest combined average pace I should say average pace not combined pace according to I would be the same if I had them up but that doesn't make any sense to do according to my adjusted numbers a lot of that is 52 seconds per play that's crazy a lot of that is due to the dolphins they rank 31st they are 26th an offensive place per game I just look at rushes and passes I don't care about field world temps and punts and stuff their games combined for the 28th most plays from scrimmage Minnesota's 13th and pace 10th in plays and combined their games have the 13th most offensive play so like they're not too bad in that regard Miami has been involved in fun games for short but they can also slow things down in a week five particular with scholar Thompson who is going to start again this week and maybe chalk it up to like game plan was thrown off but I don't think he's going to be like rip letting it rip this week necessarily but they play it at an adjusted pace that would be last in the NFL they had a pass rate over expectation of minus 10.4 percentage points to rank 26th for that week Minnesota's 12th against the run that's still beatable so like they could just keep it on the ground as much as they want milk the clock we're kind of looking at like I'm struggling with this because like again there are fun names in this game both past defenses are non-threatening us according to number fire suggested metrics but Miami could screw this one up and frankly Minnesota could screw this one up too we talked on Monday about Daven Cook's salary being too high for his role Justin Jefferson we can love Justin Jefferson but it's hard for me to sit here and say I'm going to prioritize Justin Jefferson at 9200 Tyree's not a hundred percent but seems like he's going to play he's 8000 I think where he most or it could be viable at 65 this could be like a high scoring tight back and forth game or it could be like low scoring and over salary for the guys who actually won so what are your thoughts I think if we were getting a Teddy revenge game here I'd be pretty interested in it because like I think Teddy can push the ball a bit Teddy's efficient we can feel good about that but Thompson's like more of an athlete and I'm worried that they like I think that they will change things up in the way they did last week for what you said you know you didn't get a full didn't get any practice last week probably because they had to get Teddy ready for the QB1 snaps but like are they going to be fast no um are they going to be efficient they haven't been fast with any horseback right right are they going to be efficient my money's on no I don't think Thompson's like totally out to lunch um like he played well in the preseason he had drafted for a reason he had some okay games in college uh also he's not like a young he's two years older than Justin Jefferson uh which is like wild he's 25 as a rookie which is absurd um but like so I'm not saying like oh I can't use them because Thompson but like it does lower me with Thompson being in there and that does hurt the Vikings we were low on Dalvin Cook to begin with because his workload has been underwhelming um 83 that's that's high enough for I'm just like I mean I have a lot of running backs I like I need to cross people off I'll cross him off um Jefferson and Thielen I think Thielen is more in play not than Jefferson I think Thielen's more in play than Cook um because of salary and because he is a wide receiver in a salary we need to target if we look at the games that uh the four games since Irv Smith had a higher route rate 20 target share for Adam Thielen 24 in the red zone 17 deep that's not the worst role for that range uh it's not the great role either but like I'd rather I'd rather use him than Cook I think in this game personally but I agree it's scary to be out on Justin Jefferson and it's it's not a it's not like a nitpick I'd still play him if I could if I had like salary to burn but really hard to justify him this week um unless I'm playing like single Terry Walker and like 90 minds or something yeah but I don't anticipate doing that very very often you know so yeah I think I'm just a bit lower there so let's talk to you about the 49ers their offense with Jimmy Garoppolo their team total pretty hot this week at 25 magic for the Falcons not bad so I want to dig in and see what they've done since Garoppolo became the starter and they've been pretty balanced a 52 early down first half pass rate a bit below the league average of 53.6 percent that's for all early down plays I should know um that's not a one-to-one comparison whoops anyway um and it's like a decent work for Jeff Wilson and he's beneficent but he has not topped 21 and adjusted opportunities yet his red zone share is 29.4 percent now likely getting Terry and Davis price back uh Tevin Coleman side of the active roster Tevin Coleman revenge game don't forget that um I think that Wilson will come back to earth a bit so I don't want to go there at 72 that would shift our attention to the passing game that's also not great I wouldn't say uh Garoppolo's 8 out of 7.4 Brandon Iuk is the only guy averaging more than one deep target per game in those three games Debo Samuel has 29 percent of the overall targets with five of nine targets inside the red zone but he doesn't have any carries inside the red zone in this time I know I'm a parody of myself but um that was a big part of his appeal last year when he was scoring at such a wild rate as he get a lot of high leverage rushing uh attempts and he hasn't been getting that recently Debo is at 76 yards from scrimmage per game in this three game sample he's the most appealing piece here but even he's flawed at $7600 Iuk 58 Kittle 57 Iuk has one-third of the deep targets but as mentioned that's not a lot of deep targets overall overall targets are 19 percent Kittle 18 percent of the overall targets 22 percent in the red zone we at least know that Kittle has a path to a big game because he's good we might want to spend down at tight end this week the Falcons about average against tight ends uh based on your adjusted vandal points per target numbers he had a plus match with carolina last week and didn't do anything with it um so I have at least some interest in Debo Iuk and Kittle but nobody really gets me super jazzed is that a mistake uh where are you out in this office uh the the models love Debo this week do you love Debo not really okay I was talking about since week three um early downs first half pass rate 53 52.9 percent for San Francisco and that split league average 53.7 so a little bit below average so I was right okay cool I thought I pulled the wrong number apparently I did it was a mistake but I did it it was an accident but I did it right woo hooray Jim um so you're not super into Debo I'm guessing that's because we have mech half and lock it right there right it's really hard to look at at Debo and and want to go with him over guys who are way more fun in a more fun game like not that was not fun that's not I'm saying but like his role in this offense I would say that if we look at the 7000 range which is Michael Thomas Christian Kirk up through uh Mike Evans I would say Debo's third in that range for me behind Lockett and Metcalf but the problem is I have them both a full tier above him yes so will I get to Debo potentially will I seek him out likely not so since week three Debo's at I'm sorry if you set these numbers 56 red zone share yeah two-thirds of the end zone targets well 56 target share on the red zone his red zone share overall I think is about 20 29 percent or sorry 29 percent yeah he does have a catch rate over expectation of minus 13 points like maybe there's just some regression underlying juice and some regression come in his way then again he has overperformed his expected final points overall so like I don't know I would rank him third there but he's like not a I think he'll be very popular again I seem to see him projected well various places I think it's fine given the matchup in a dome a lot of kind of stuff but I would rather play Lockett and Metcalf what about Kittle for you because we do have some interest in spending on a tight end I think I think in Joku is definitively above him for me but is Kittle in that discussion with Higby and Earth for you or no he is at the bottom of that tier okay I'm trying to look up so Atlanta against tight ends about average about average there are 0 for 4 and end zone targets allowed so that's probably maybe scores this week he's fine but I'm I can't rank him above in Joku I can't above in Joku either but I think I could consider him above Earth's and Higby because like it's it's like the FOMO thing like what are the odds they'd burn me for not using them probably not that high and like Kittle might not either but at least he'll come at a lower roster rate I'd assume yeah so I don't know and totally out on Jeff Wilson yeah I thought probably one of any and like that could hurt me did he was fine he was very good last week but I think he had like 20 fandal points or whatever uh decent decent efficiency he's been he's we've run really well this year which is like a deviation from what I would have thought but when I can go Breeze Hall at 71 a hundred dollars lower honestly I prefer in Jones over Jeff Wilson too yeah at 73 um I just I'd rather go that route personally but both Wilson and Jones favored pretty heavily too so that I think it's again another you know reason I think Jeff Wilson would be popular I don't think he should be worse chalk Jeff Wilson or or Devin single digits Wilson at salary I agree anything else on the 49ers no will you get to NAIU because like I think that my approach will be just like to differentiate in that range and make my core everyone else this will be the one spot I differentiate to differentiate so like I will have a mixture of guys down here does IU get in that mix for you yeah because the way that I build my lineups especially this week is going to be plugging the running backs that I like uh the quarterbacks and stack them and then I'll just be sort of duplicating those lineups and making small tweaks from there yeah I think that's probably a smart way to play things for this week okay whether only one game of note hallelujah uh that's actually in Miami for the dolphins and the vikings wind speeds there 13 miles per hour nothing to downgrade things too much but hey confirmation bias bleep that games let's move now to our positional plays for week number six on Fandall starting off at quarterback Brandon who are you targeting there I probably should have Josh Allen here but I do have Patrick Mahomes I'll stick with Mahomes um although I ideally I'm getting to Alan in a single lineup I want to play him against you in our head to head yes I think for cash games I lock in the three running backs first of hall Stevenson and Walker Alan might be the next guy put in there I think so too but Mahomes is projecting to be substantially less popular than Josh Allen which I understand because he's an underdog and as your numbers have historically shown that's a good thing for quarterbacks uh when trailing Kansas City has a pass rate over expectation of plus 15.7 percentage points in a raw pass rate of 71 percent should run more in an important game I think that he could throw like 45 50 times and just have like a huge game and if this game busts it busts but even then I don't know how you look back and say like I was glad that I didn't play Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen this week like quarterback popularity doesn't matter enough yeah my second love is you know Smith for the lineups where I do try to be different I think he's fourth behind Alan Mahomes in Lamar I'm going to rank him above Kyler and just take like the arbitrage but uh I mentioned a lot of stuff already Arizona just okay in pressure rate 29th and adjusted pass defense Smith double digit rushing yards in three or five games easily easy to stack and I think he's also stacks well with Kenneth Locker don't be afraid to do that yeah I think he does as well um Gino, Kenneth and then Decare Lockett I think that's totally fine as well I think that Gino is probably my quarterback for this week I I've been buffing him up I think I'll wind up there and the only question is do I get to five with Kyler do I stick with three with Mahomes, Allen, Lamar I don't know it's one of those options I think my first love is also Mahomes it's a lower-soured exposure to Bill's chiefs I need sour savings this week he said 30 plus fan dual points in two out of five games he's had 25 plus rushing yards in three straight and he tends to be more likely to run in huge matchups that's that's impactful to me again I want Allen for for cash games but I think that for Mahomes kind of need the savings and I do like the roster rate discount my second love is Lamar Jackson I think that it is a great week to pivot to Lamar you talked about this with regards to Andrews and pivoting to tight ends when they might not be the chalk of the slate when they're good I think that applies to Lamar as well um it's still a pretty decent game from a an offensive perspective Lamar has had two straight down games to keep his roster rate in check one of those was influenced by wind other one very good defense on the opposing side it's Cincinnati he can still drop 40 on you so if someone out scores Mahomes Allen I think Lamar is probably most likely to be that guy um if if roster rate projected roster rates wind up having it where Lamar is actually like on par with them then like you know I'll just have him be in the same tier as them but I really think Lamar is a a really fun play for single entry this week running back we had the same three uh let's let's all tonight you start with Stevenson then I'll go haul and you can finish off with Walker uh Cleveland is allowing 1.15 yards over expectation per carry how the second worst behind the Chargers who are at 1.90 if memory serves but they did play uh rushing yards over expectation legend Nick Shubb uh they're 30 second in rushing to expect the points per carry and adjusted fatal points per carry a lot of running backs remandry got a lot of rushing work last week he can get all the receiving I think that workload wise he projects really well even I know it's a little bit scary to like play remandry over Aaron Jones that's not because of the offense but what's not it's really not but Stevenson's uh one of the guys this week for us and he is the guy we are most confident in of this trio yes yep okay so I'll talk about breeze hall here he is facing the Packers as a pretty big underdog but the Packers ranked 25th against the rush by my numbers which combined a prior with uh 2022 data my 2022 only model actually thinks the Jets are a little bit undervalued in this spot from a betting perspective I'm not going to bet them because I can't do that to myself but things are a bit undervalued they're playing decently well Zach Wilson's efficiency numbers are okay in this first two games I love Hall's role at 71 uh 122 yards and scrimmage per game and is three as being uh the lead back to this team 41 red zone share like come on um if we look at each guy's most relevant sample Hall's red zone share ranks second on the slate excluding Tyler algae or because that was like two plays second on the slate behind Christian McCaffrey and red zone sharing each guy's most relevant sample Stevenson is after him at 40% in his one game sample but Hall's awesome so talk to me about Walker now uh yeah so eight carries 88 yards last week I will point out very low success rate had just you know big play uh no targets but did run 12 routes uh Arizona just middling on the ground dead last and adjusted fandal points per target allowed to running backs I think a fair question here is yes could he get scripted out if they fall behind I mean yeah I think it's a maybe it's a maybe also is it a because like can would you rather have DJ Dallas out there or Kenneth Walker if you're if you're trailing I mean I'd rather have Ken you don't draft them where you did not to use them especially to like have them run routes last week yeah if Travis homework were active I'd be more concerned but Travis homework still on IR for two more games sure um I think a fair question to ask here is would I like Rashad penny at 6500 in this matchup I would love him and you kind of take away the the minimal work that Walker had with penny there I think it's like a plus couldn't agree more so let's go to wide receiver what are you looking at there Tyler locket lock there's a little bit of a fear of like chasing here and I've talked already the season about how why we shouldn't do that but it's not chasing when the workload is there uh because I'm not banking on a multi-touch down game again but he's got a 26 target share 40% area share he's averaging 3.4 downfield targets per game which for me is 10 plus yards down field Metcalfe does have the better red zone role but locket has torched the cardinals I don't do a whole lot of like defensive scheming stuff but since 2020 he's got six touchdowns in four games against the cardinals he's put up 267 115 and 98 yards um that's fun uh realistically I don't love a lot of receivers that I can get to like beyond that um like I like I love Metcalfe but I can't play the guys above them frequently so I'm gonna jump down below 6000 for two guys with uh first being Marquez of all that scantling if I'm rolling the dice on a receiver I want him on the field in a good game MBS does that season best last week and catches targets in yards he's by far the best air yards value in my model checks all the boxes for like what you want there's still a low floor but we don't want floor we want ceiling speaking of floor maybe uh Rondale Moore Rondale for maybe wow his adot as you alluded to fell from 9.9 yards in his debut to 2.2 last week but so I've three downfield targets in that two game sample you know it's a different roll-ish but resident target in each inner red zone rush in week four gym so you'd like that 100% exposure Rondale Moore Seattle's bottom four and yards after the catch allowed and yards after the catch allowed over expectation this season I think that if you if you want to play Andrews and Kelsey you're gonna have to play two value receivers and I think more in MBS would be the two that I would target most I think I agree with you Dobbs is the one other guy I'm considering I feel better about more than Dobbs Dobbs could get a little bit forgotten I mean I hate that offense so yeah I'll take that you know that works for me my first love is DK Metcalf I like lock it a lot too but 28% target for Metcalf 31% deep 40% in the red zone he is showing legit yardage upside great game um very like low salary compared to his role so like I think that I'll take the Brandon approach and just like sub one guy out like have a lock it line up sub about him put in Metcalf keep the rest of I need to do that because I've had so much tilt the past few weeks picking the wrong guy yeah and like for me like the only reason not to do that is like oh well what if I get one piece wrong that's like if you're playing DFS properly from like a responsible gaming perspective you're not playing more than you can afford to lose anyway so like it's okay if you lose everything for a week like that's okay like don't play more than where that's not a that's a bad thing absolutely but you also want to maximize whenever you hit yeah exactly yeah yeah if you're playing everyone to like cover your bases so that you can like break even just like play cash games again I don't know yeah exactly my second love is Devin DuVernay assuming that there's no Rashad Bateman last week without Bateman seven overall targets for DuVernay with three deep targets based on the Giants which is a pretty good matchup um DuVernay not had the yardage upside yet but he showed the building blocks for yardage upside last week so DuVernay 62th there is no Rashad Bateman I will have Lamar stacks DuVernay will be part of those as well my third love is Marquess Valdez scantling he's the lowest salary guy with an easy path the upside 17 target share but 28th in the deep targets this year he had 90 yards last week it's enough to show that he has yardage upside but also not enough to generate a lot of interest in him I would consider Rondell Moore other guys that are like if you have to like really rotate through I think I probably will up off Cobb I think the Dodds is the better guy than Cobb Ayuk is a consideration I'm feeling the consideration Alec Pierce actually has yardage upside because he's the alpha on the in the Colts receiving room I think though it's really just use the guys in the good games in MVS Rondell Moore DuVernay a bit you know I think that's probably where I want to go uh tight end what you doing there probably going to end up with more Marquess Andrews than Kelsey he has three games with at least 15 Vandal points this year Kelsey has four but if you exclude Kelsey all other tight ends have combined for four if you don't count Tayson Hill as a tight end he has two games with at least 20 excluding Kelsey the rest of the position has two combined that ceiling is realistic and attainable for him in this match up he has a 33 target share on the year no other tight ends above 26% if you account for downfield and red zone work he's at a 34.3% weighted target share next up is Kelsey at 24.4% I think Andrews is a standout play I know we like Nijoku but Tyler Higby at 62 I don't think should be completely forgotten 25 target share he's second on the season behind just Marquess Andrews that's 9.6 targets per game a catch rate over expectation of minus 7.7 points no touchdowns yet and Carolina's 29th and adjusted Vandal points were target allowed to tight ends in dead last and catch rate over expectation if you give him a decent Higby game and a touchdown like you can kind of overcome like a not a four touchdown game from the studs but a good game from the studs yeah um I Higby is fine he he and Erz are the same thing to me yeah who do you prefer between those two Higby less competition yeah probably correct my first love is also mark Andrews because it's a week to pivot to him if we assume that the four touchdown game from Kelsey really dries up his roster rate that game dries up roster rate I know the projected roster numbers right now do have them pretty even I think when the dust settles I think it will skew towards Kelsey based on point chasing and stuff like that but Andrews it settles pretty funny okay proud of you 33 target share as you said 41 the red zone 39 deep $500 discount from Kelsey is not too bad my second love is David and joku because he has yardage upside he said 70 plus receiving yards and three straight games he has a 19% target share this year even if you include week one where he was used as a blocker a lot I'm I want to include that because that's within his range of outcomes so a 19% target share 27% the red zone $5,900 I think that he's more athletic than a lot of the guys of Patriots have so I think a joke makes a lot of sense while you were talking about Higby and Andrews I was building out a Lamar Andrews stack accidentally put DJ more in instead of Rondale more and almost threw up my microphone so we avoided calamity there somehow uh defense talk to me I like the Saints 3800 uh Joe Burrows been sacked at least twice in four or five games at least six and two of five 8.6% sacrate which is 2.3 points higher than the average and again I joked about the Falcons at minimum salary but I I don't think that it's completely off base uh there San Francisco's passing success rate without Trent Williams on the field is down to 38% uh from 49 with him and that's with Jim Jim and Garoppolo playing I died so I have this uh Lamar lineup with Andrews and it has the big three running backs some receivers I like but it's $100 shy I might jump down to the Bengals make it work or sorry the Falcons make it work I don't think they're totally out of play my love is the Bengals they'll kind of be like the the default one that I lock in the defense is playing really well this year had a decent pressure rate uh Jamis might be back but he throws picks he takes sacks we love Jamis for defenses uh no Michael Thomas no Chris Olavia practice Wednesday so I think the Bengals are like the default play for me a defense but I will go Falcons at times if I need to in order to jam in everything I want to jam in for this week that's all we got here on the podcast for any final words of wisdom for the good listeners before we send them off to fill out their winning lineups for this week if you think that we went this whole show and underplayed like Cooper Cup and Justin Jefferson and I think we played up Stefan Diggs well enough but like Nick Chubb, Saquon Barkley, McCaffrey if you think those are the guys this week like you view it completely differently feel fine in that because there are cases to be made for a lot of different ways I just think there's an obvious way to build this week and I'm gonna stick with that I am as well especially given the way things look from a projected roster a perspective I feel more confident in that approach this week as well that is all that we have here for this week we'll be back with you on Monday to wrap it all up that's live on the Fandall YouTube page 10 a.m. Eastern and also on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed after that so go subscribe hit subscribe to the Fandall YouTube page hit the like button as well those of you watching we appreciate you as always and hit subscribe on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast branded people have questions for you on Twitter where can they find you there on Twitter at Goodwill 13 GDULA13 and I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S you can also follow the Fandall podcast network at Fandall podcast big thank you to everyone for tuning in for this week good luck to you with your week six NFL DFS lineups we'll talk to you once again Monday to wrap it all up this has been the heat shack fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire