 Kira astu, iini iwi katoa na mihi ike katoa, eba rangatirama mohi, Yosef, Brian, Matthew, tina katoa, iti iwi tona i tina katoa, tina katoa, tina katoa katoa. It's really important for me to acknowledge the tangata finua, the people of the land. I really want to acknowledge Matthew, Brian and Yosef for what you're doing and mohi for that wonderful porfuri. And just welcome you here really as a New Zealander. Last year I came and spoke about pests, which is, there's two things that really keep me awake, which is pests and the next one is climate. And it's not a pretty talk, but I think it's going to put you in context for what you're trying to do. Because I guess I came awake so inspired last year about what you're trying to do. And I sit around senior levels of government where I see ministers trying to solve the same problems that you are. And the context you gave me last year were things like reclaiming Detroit, aquaponics, you know, had New Zealand, your vision that New Zealand could be one of these huge bread baskets for the world, if we actually change away from beef and our traditional, which is really, really challenging for New Zealand. I think you guys have to be listened to. And all year, you know, I have coffee with Yosef and introduce him to another person that I think might be really helpful for what you're trying to do. But Matthew and Brian, I really acknowledge your vision and what you're trying to do and how you're trying to push New Zealand a bit. And I think if we can sort out some of these problems in New Zealand, we can actually take this to the world. So I want to take this through a world picture because for 11 years I was running the Antarctic program. So I want to take, go down to Antarctica and I want to bring you into New Zealand and show you the impact of climate. I don't have the solution. I think some of the solutions are sitting in your vision. You know, fortunately Paris came to some form of agreement where we go with Paris is incredibly important to the world. But my job as a manager of a third of New Zealand is to work with our treaty partner on these immediate problems that we have, which are starting to implicate our nature in terms of climate. And my new best friend is Benjamin from Portugal, who's saving nature in Portugal and Ian's doing a film on him. So that was our commonality. So I want to start in Antarctica and this magnificent photo was taken in 1972 and it was sort of a game changer. Now this is 45 years ago, so you think of the damage we've done to that planet since that photo was taken. So there's those guys shooting away to the moon on Apollo 17 and looking back at this, what we call the blue marble. And this is the first time when that photo was taken, we started to realise how important Antarctica is to the southern hemisphere. And you can see that whole climate system, that bubbling of waves just heading across Africa. And suddenly people realised this mysterious part of the world is so incredibly important to our whole global weather system, particularly as it impacts the southern hemisphere. And this shows the cyclones that are going, and we've got one coming through at the moment. A typical cyclone takes 14 days to go around Antarctica. So New Zealand, Tasmania, South America sit in this westerly wind belt. What's happened is we're getting record cooling and record heating in Antarctica. So we've got the ozone hole and it's going to take us 50 years to fix the ozone hole. So with the ozone hole you've got the sunlight going in and out, you've got record cold on the polar plateau, you've got record heat on the peninsula and it's like a big centrifuge. So you've got this westerly wind that's going around at 1,000 years high. So the westerlies are all moving further south, which is taking those, and those westerlies bring water to Australia, to New Zealand, to Patagonia, to the Falklands. And as leaves go faster, they pull further south. So we get less, unless you live in Westland, Australia gets drier, South Africa gets drier. It is probably going to be, as climate change really kicks in, it's going to be one of the big advantages of New Zealand is we will still sit in this westerly, but Australia is in serious trouble. So here's the other great thing. The greatest phenomenon happening on the planet, the natural phenomenon, is the growth of sea ice in Antarctica. And this really drives the Humboldt current, the Pacific Ocean current, a big pulse of water that comes now past New Zealand. It brings out biodiversity to one of the most amazing fisheries in the world. This huge column of dense, cold, heavy water. So Antarctica, about this week it will start freezing. So the first pancake ice will start forming, and then the continent will double in size. So you'll have a piece of ice as big as United States and Canada. It will be freezing at a pace that you can walk in front of it. So as this ice is forming, it's driving out the salts which create these currents. So if we get a warming world and we get less ice, we get less power in those systems. And this is one of the theories at the moment is why the Gulf Stream could lose power. So the whole ecosystem becomes unlocked. There's another fascinating thing happening. This is the first international agreement we really nailed to banned CFCs. We had another peak this year, and you can see why in New Zealand we are so exposed to skin cancers because of the ozone hole. So this is what's creating some of those record colds in the central Antarctica, but also the record heat around some of coastal Antarctica. So what's happening with these cyclones at a thousand-year high is it's a bit like a big bath. It's pulling warm water out of the South Pacific, out of the Indian Ocean and the South Atlantic. And if you like, you've got a fire hose of slightly warm water, and with the biggest ice sheets in the world, you only need half a degree to tip those ice sheets over. So if you like, you can't see it, but this warm water is getting pulled by this centrifugal force, pulling the warmer water out of those southern oceans and against the coast of Antarctica. Half of Antarctica is continent and half is islands linked by ice. It's the half linked by ice that's in serious trouble because a lot of these big ice shelves have got grounding lines that are sitting there hinged on a sill, and once that warm water gets under that sill, it's all on. And I've just come back from Patagonia and I did three days in Antarctica and I've never seen so many icebergs in my life. You know, massive tabulas. We are seeing rapid diminishing of particularly ice sheets in the Amundsen Sea. So one of the real surprises has been this massive decay of these ice shelves, and this is the Antarctic Peninsula, and this is an ice shelf, half as big as Belgium and half a cup in 30 days in 2000. Last week I saw in Antarctica an iceberg, the biggest in the world. It broke off south of New Zealand in 2000. It had enough water in it to run the Nile River for 90 years. A bit of it, a 30 mile bit of it was sitting in the Wedelsea blocking the access to Antarctic seans. So that's 16 years on, around in this current. I don't know if you from New Zealand will remember those icebergs that came off the coast of Dunedin. If you took all the ocean out between South Island and the Chathams and over what we call the Campbell Plateau, it is constantly scoured by icebergs. So we've been there before, but we're heading there again. So this is no different for you from North America to the foreign winds in Canada. So you've got these westerly winds, stronger westerly winds going up over the mountains of the Antarctic Peninsula. Warmer, colder in the west, warmer in the east. You only need a little fissure, a little slit in the ice. The water acts like cancer and next thing, the whole thing becomes unstable. So the big surprise is the most warming areas on the planet, the Antarctic Peninsula, Siberia and the Canadian Arctic. And these are all incredible areas for problems because as soon as we look at Siberia and the Canadian Arctic, where so much methane is locked into that permafrost, when that gets going, we actually increase the loops. And I know at places like Yellowknife now in Canada, kids go out to the ponds and light the ponds from the methane that's coming out of the melting permafrost. So this is last year. This is the world's hottest year. And so you can see an interesting observation of record cold in southern Greenland, sort of around off the coast of Britain and some of these record flood events that are hitting Britain at the moment. And because we've been there before when we last tipped through 400 parts per million, we know a bit about what happens. So what's happening in both the north and southern hemisphere is the jet stream has got a lot more wavy. So the jet stream, you know, as we get this change in this whole circulation system, the jet stream has become more like this. So the record cold in the United States last year, I think it was last week, minus 35 in Chicago, you know, record cold temperatures. So as climate change kicks in, we're getting this wavy pattern and suddenly this dense cold air flows out of the Arctic. And, you know, even last time the world went through 400 parts per million, we did get a mini ice age in Europe. So this is sort of lining up with what we know from ice cores in Antarctica. This image is fantastic. This is NASA. This is a year in the life of the Earth's CO2. And you can see New Zealand in the bottom right-hand corner. You can see the Australian bushfires just curling around over New Zealand. But who would want to live in China? You just watch how the CO2 and the CO2 just mixing up in the Arctic. And towards the end of this, a remarkable thing happened. So we're going through the year. This is February. This is last year, 2016. And you can see why so many people want to live in New Zealand when you look at that image of what's happening with CO2. We are one of the most, you know, whether it's amazing place at the end of the Earth that's pretty much free of the storm of CO2 that's happening in the northern hemisphere. But a remarkable thing starts happening in a couple of slides. So this is winter in the north. And then... So this is pretty full-on CO2 in the northern hemisphere. And then the plants start producing again. And you can just see how much the plants suck out that CO2. So you can see it's all starting to go off the reds are starting to be sucked out. And it just shows you why these plants are so important to the whole planet. Why nature is so important to this planet. And if we don't do something about this to ensure we protect our nature, this is the cleansing effect that the planet can do. We've got to work out how we can do this. So this is what we're estimating from research at Victoria University. This pump of water hitting Antarctica. This is... And you've all come into Wellington. This is what we think is coming off Antarctica every two days. So that's the sea level rise that's starting to hit here. It's not equal. We work with James Cameron, who's saying, you know, I've purchased a farm in the southern Whirapā that is now impacting by sea level rise. Salt is getting... And he's been talking to us about converting a million dairy farm to a wetland because it might have a better impact for nature than being a dairy farm. And that's the sort of leadership that the world's going to need to think, do we have to push against climate change? And you know the one country that's most organised to deal with this is the Netherlands, and the United States is probably the least organised. Just think, you know, and those of you who know New York of that massive storm sewage, just think of a storm sewage coming through the Thames tide barrier and taking out the London metro system. It would take weeks to pump it out. It would gridlock London. But that's the sort of potential thing that we're dealing with as we look towards 2050. And where is Antarctica? It's melting from the bottom. Greenland's melting from the top. So Greenland's got these big river, you know, and last year, I think, was the first year that the whole ice cap got to a plus zero degrees temperature, or plus 32 degrees Fahrenheit. So that creates what we call mulons as these rivers start running over the top of the ice cap. They erode down. They lubricate the glaciers and the glaciers retreat. So quite a different... And remember, the melting of the Arctic ice is not going to do one iota for sea level rise because that's already the sea level. So it's really that ice locked in Greenland and Antarctica that's going to impact us. They're changing weather systems and it's that wavy jet stream. Our airlines are going to have to work out how to deal with this new jet stream. They've had 50 years of working out how to catch that jet stream and get to London quicker. Now the jet stream's gone wavy. There's huge implications by this. So now I want to bring you to New Zealand and the canary in the room is these magnificent islands. The snares is 300 hectares. It's got more sea birds than the entire British isles. It's one of the most pristine islands in the world. New Zealand's had a crack at these islands. We've tried to farm them. The islands have won out. This is a place that nature's won and so many parts of New Zealand nature has won. Fjordand, one of the largest national parks in the world, nature has won. So when we get down to these southern areas, nature's on top. Where it's in trouble is further north. So we'll just keep going. This is Macquarie Island, an Australian island. But the start of these islands, if you like New Zealand, and I told the story of New Zealand last year, which is Zealandia. This amazing piece of land that flowed off Gondwana land went into a series of sediments and then plate tectonics kicked in and up popped New Zealand, one of the youngest countries on the planet, one of the last discovered, one of the remotest, one of the loniest, one of the loveliest. And most importantly, as it was created, the chunks of it came away from New Guinea and Australia, it broke all those land bridges that were a country of birds. We don't have anything with teeth. And birds occupy the highest niche in New Zealand. That's why we're so proud of our birds. So Macquarie Island is the end of, I guess, the Southern Alps. The end of actually this fault plate tectonics. So Macquarie Island, the Alpine communities are starting to die. They've got used to, and this is this westerly wind thing kicking in again, is it's constantly misty there. They're now getting a, whereas they had a storm event every three days, they're now getting a storm event every two days. So increasing wind, and then sun comes out, it dries it out. Every three days with constant mist, it keeps that Alpine community intact. This is now what's happening on Macquarie Island now with those westerly winds. So this is a real Auckland Islands. We've only got two mammals, a sea lion and a bat. This is our sea lion, the New Zealand sea lion, and it's in serious trouble. It's had a 50% decline in pups over the last six years. This year we've just got a slight increase going on. Rockhopper penguins, again in trouble. Now, the Antarctic Convergence Zone is another upwelling zone, and these birds were based on these islands and able to go out and reach into those areas, but they haven't gone further and further. Crozet Island, one of the French islands, is actually seeing an opposite effect. It's seeing a lift in the numbers of albatross because it's sitting out there further to the south. So the whole weather system has moved to the south. There's more wind down at Crozet, and these are the largest birds in the world. They're able to, you know, a 11-foot wingspan. More wind, they can breed more because they can get off. Our guys are getting a bit less wind because those winds are further south. So simple science, rockhoppers are having to go further. Tippity's Island, this is a storm event two years ago. We lost a third of the island. So some intent, nobody was there. An intense event slumped a third of that island. We've never seen anything like it. I'm sorry, this is a bit gloomy. This is the heart on Tippity's Island. This is the island. This winter, we're aiming to make predator-free. This is their million-dollar mouse programme, and this will be another one of these pristine islands if we can take it back. Huge challenge. We're also dealing with the challenge of most of our facilities got wiped out by these slips. Great white sharks. The area in New Zealand that's probably warming the most is to the south of New Zealand. So it's not all equal. Sea level rise in the south. We've got warmer oceans in the south. Great white sharks. When the temperature gets to 16 degrees, they come in. And this is creating us an issue in terms of it's fine for great white sharks. But for steward islanders who lived on power, we now got a tourism industry, we've got this classic debate between tourism and nature. War on weeds. The wilding pines, these are pines that particularly the radiator pines that's been bought in from California. We don't have these cold winters we used to have that we're able to suppress them. They're now working rampant through our natural ecosystems that we're so famous for. This is the Queenstown Basin. If we don't do anything, that whole valley will become like Aspen. Now, we sort of don't want that. So, but huge cost in how we sort this out. So this just shows a valley. Just keep on going. Just south of Queenstown and you can see what wilding pines do. So this is happening right across the country. So we're calling it war on weeds because as well as pests we're going to have to deal with. And Douglas fir is now the new one. And we're putting Douglas fir in the wrong places. These strong winds are kicking in. They're taking it to new areas. It takes seven years for them to produce seed and then they poke them out again. This is the loss of our glacier. It's 1977. A completely new visitor attraction. This now takes 40,000 people on a boat up to that glacier terminal. We didn't have that lake. And just some shots of the Franz glacier just over the last few years. So we just go through this video and you can see a year of what's happening with that glacier retreat. So we're having to change the tourism industry that have walked to the glacier. We can no longer walk to the glacier. We've got a huge demand for helicopters. Chinese tourism is growing from 300,000 to a million. They can't fly on a helicopter in China. They come out here. They want to do a snow landing. We simply can't provide enough snow landings on what we formerly had was a walk to a glacier. So we've got to work out how we work with the tourism industry. Invasive pests are getting worse. So less cold winters. We're getting more hedgehogs, more rats, more mice. A more frequent beach mass. So beach is a common species of Tasmania, New Zealand, South America. And as soon as we get to warm summers, it's all on in terms of this food source. And this is where Al Bramley and NEXT Foundation is putting so much energy into how do we actually deal with these pests on scale and respond to these beach mass. We did one two years ago. We've got another one this year. South America last year and I could see massive seeding of beach there. This is how we're responding in New Zealand and we're great to acknowledge Devin McLean here from NEXT Foundation. We're putting a package of 20 million together. See that perfect circle of Mount Taranaki and can we take pests off. So we have to think in a world of less water in the east, more water in the west. This is a bit like Noah's Ark. We're going to invest in terms of ecosystems and preserving nature. This is exactly what we're doing in New Zealand. This is just a stippical storm event. This is not a big storm event, but in Gisborne we planted after massive floods and what we call cyclone boner, the government put huge resource into planting Pinus radiata. We've now got to think whether that was the right strategy because every flood now we're getting these massive amounts of logs on the street. This is one storm event for the biggest ever windfall in New Zealand. 22,000 hectares of trees knocked down because as this westerlies move to the south it creates more space for the cyclones to come from the north. Our trees have grown up in a westerly world. They're now getting hit from an easterly and some of these wind speeds that were coming out of the valley in westland were up around 200 miles an hour. Our forests have never seen that. This is just one storm event on Little Barrier Island. We just spent three million creating a new track on Great Barrier Island. We had one dam that had sat there for 110 years wiped out that night. Every time I see a cyclone developing I think what's this going to cost, Doc? Poor Knights Island, one of the most magnificent things we've done is make that a marine reserve. 30,000 people now enjoy that place rather than fish and that wonderful decision by the government to do Kermadex Ocean Marine Protected Area twice as big as New Zealand. These things really do work and that's our obligation to the world, really, if we're going to have one of the fourth biggest e-zones in the world to actually put something back for the world, for tuna, for fish stocks. But there's an emerging problem there is that tiny little sea urchin. Now, this is a native, but with warmer weather it's moving further south because as these ocean warming has moved south in Australia, these sea urchins that were in South Australia and Tasmania, they've whacked out all the kelp and the only place you've got kelp in Tasmania now is where there's marine reserves and the crayfish are able to eat the kelp. So it just shows you marine reserves really do work and really that's my story. And it's not a great story but I think it sets context of why you are so important to New Zealand because the ideas you're putting on the table you're seeing the immediate problem I have to deal with but the ideas in here because it's a much bigger problem we have to look at. Kura koutou kata.