 The following is a presentation of TFNN the Tiger Technician Hour with your host Hazel Chapman call now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 On this Wednesday the 27th of April and look at this chart on the right that is the monthly chart of the Dow look at this chart on the right this is the S&P a monthly chart right there look at that huge red candle look at the QQQs this is the monthly chart we got three days to go for this to wrap up and we're going to see what happens it's really important so let me just go to the the numbers quickly and then we're going to run through a whole bunch of things that I've got questions about and some of it I didn't answer yesterday some of it I'll answer today and some fresh questions here we go Tows up 171 and 33,412 off the yesterday's remember we took I don't want to spend too much time on this we had the Chapman wave the third Chapman wave Roman candle I need to go to this chart right here this is what I show my subscribers every day and this third you got one right here and just open this I'll open this up it's much easier that way you've got the 24th of January 30,000 150 you got that candle the long wick and a green looks a little bit like a hammer but it's really I call it a Chapman Roman candle because a Roman candle certainly at the top if you get one of those that little wick is just enough for you to light the wicked blows up and this is the case for the downside if it if it's on the downside there's a certain rules that I have and these are this met the rules and I went from 30,000 150 all the way to 35,000 824 the next one was exactly a month later 24th of January 32,272 and whoosh we went up and pulled back but ran up to all the way from the 32,200 to 35,372 peak D made a cup formation and then went to the right side 35,492 Chapman instance Mr. Chapman inside track target zone I remember in my charts I showed you this but I also do it for subscribers I showed that this was strong the action going to the high that was made at 35,372 and that was around about the 28th or so of March and the same vertical stance going to the high that a higher high with lower technicals not a good sign that was the high that Thursday and went to the high of 35,492 we just less than a week ago and now look what we've done since that level we've plunged down to the 32,232 level but yesterday we had a candle that was from Monday the same thing the third one and the rule of thumb is a Roman candle whether it's red or whether it's green if the price goes halfway into the wick in a shorter timeframe for a certain amount of time watch out because there's a really good chance it's going to go to just above right on just below the previous low and of course it went right down to the 32,000 what was that once the 32,000 230 level and today beginning some kind of a balance so the couple of things going on and most importantly it's what we need to see it's not a matter of where we are right now we need to see the height today so far as 35,592 this is a merbosa candle meaning that there's no wick you see this candle right here it gaps down open and closes at the very low I don't mind even if there's a fraction of a wick but the idea is that there's a huge red or a huge green candle and in this particular instance is a red candle and what I always look for in the traditional way of looking at the markets if the last hour of trading if there's a sudden huge spike into the close you get you're bound to give back about 20 to 30 percent sometimes more of the last hours trading and in this particular case I was saying to subscribers we should get back at least 30 30 percent or maybe even more of the last hours trading to the downside yesterday by moving to the upside day is young all I can say is with all the selling that's going on with the terrible and there was a moment yesterday when I was listening to what I think I was listening to a lady Perzevento's guest as I was doing many other things here you know part of my what I do every day I said to myself you know I remember this there was a moment where he had a guest I think it was art art art who I followed for decades and decades and decades art art Crawford thank you art Crawford and that was a few years back quite a few years back and I remember I was actually listening on my cell phone I was driving from Newton rather to Watertown I remember I can't remember what I had to do but I was on my way and I just said to myself you see that tree over there I'm driving straight into that tree this is the worst this is the most negative I've ever heard and thank goodness you can tell I did not drive into the tree and it turned out that that really was just about the low of that particular movie that we started moving up so I'm saying to myself yesterday when I was listening to I can't remember what his name I thought of myself oh my goodness that is really negative but there's a difference in this particular instance those negatives that were discussed that is out there I'm absolutely I'm not denying that it's out there what I am saying is that within the context of those negatives the Dow at this particular point look where it is now the days young we're not only up 70 poise only up 67 only up 65 that's the way it is is it possible that in the set activity of the rotation if you're in the wrong sector you are just getting maybe short is fantastic but if you're along you're just getting wiped out but if you're in the right sectors the ones that have held and I'm gonna go to that in a moment you are looking at really a rotational correction there's nothing if you're looking at this monthly chart let me just put this up here for the doubt look if you have this monthly chart out the nine-period moving average is still way above the 40 whoa does that mean it's got so much more to go to the downside certainly it could look the magnies turned out stochastics only at 67% on battles volume is pretty good nine is very much above the 14 but it started to turn down well make it as simple as possible any close on a weekly basis that's a shorter term than the monthly underneath the low of the of of February that's a 32,272 and it has to be a weekly close would suggest things have changed that the consolidation phase is now sorry to impact the Dow which is one of the better indices I mean if you're looking at it now and you say we've got record highs in yields we've got record for most recent times not historically but record recent times record highs in inflation record highs in all the commodities record highs in in crude oil you've got no semiconductor index SMH's which I have said for decades you've heard me say they are the leaders they are leading indicated because they are like crude oil used to be and still is for 150 years it's been the commodity of economic activity throughout the world so semiconductors have taken that over not completely but it's parallel let's put it that way and they are not doing very well at all maybe they get down one 227 I'll continue maybe up joining the downside people in a moment are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio Tom O'Brien is here to help Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years a frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you Tom's Daily Market newsletter market insights is published every morning when the markets open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed these newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio get Tom O'Brien's newsletter market insights today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money back guarantee at TFNN dot com TFNN educating investors what's separating you from the most successful men and women on Wall Street that's right 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guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN dot com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8 30 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money watch online at TFNN dot com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be TFNN educating investors toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618 so just real quickly let me show you something here the 120 minute chart had a really nice move in the e-mini from the low that was made at about five o'clock I think it was yesterday actually five o'clock five yes and then went to peak abcd d's what you always go for in the in a buy mode in the chapter weight methodology then it pulls back and it continues to a second d little doji candle there around about 3 30 this morning pulls back really sharp and then starts to not move the goes peak ab and then inside abcd stalls at the 200 period exponential moving average it drops very sharply into the 9 o'clock time frame and then just as we're about to open it has a spiral to the upside and it goes to a higher of 42 27 point 25 just above for three bars three 10 minute bars in the e-mini goes above the 200 period moving average and then it plunges but look what was interesting remember peak d's the objective in the chapter weight methodology can go higher the peak d's kind of the buy signal that gets upgraded to a buy mode should go to at least a d well here it is in the one minute chart look what happened went right to the peak d and it pulled back sharply and now it's pulling back it's gone negative but at this particular point it's just bounced to an unchanged at 41 71 now starts the second part of the trading day there should be today off the yesterday's move i'm expecting three moves and whether it succeeds or not at this particular point anyone who got in early say oh yeah this is it without a fairly wide stop it's kind of vulnerable to a bunch of things so at this particular point the most important aspect as you can see is how how does the market if there is another rally let's go through the e-mini if the e-mini at 41 71 is able to get to 41 95 and then pull back maybe just to 41 87 and then suddenly it has to be quite suddenly goes to 4205 and between 1230 and 120 this afternoon eastern time the dow is is now it's minus 14 it was up strong a couple hundred points now what you want to see is that under the guise of selling pressure being correct you want to see the inversion that's the markets that's what markets like to do you want to see another rally and another rally that fails but after 120 the dow needs to be at least plus 95 and in this case i want parallel movement in fact i wanted the traditional stronger s and p the s and p needs to be oh i'd say up 15 and then there is no selling into the 10 minutes to three 10 minutes past three time frame and all of a sudden you should get buying again i want to see the markets not going to listen to me it's what i would like to see based on the monthly candles if i'm correct in saying that they should be higher highs to come in 2022 certainly the s and p in the dow i want to see the candle of april survive all the selling pressure and close way off it's low it doesn't matter where how high but it might weigh off its low and that's important all right so the semiconductors i'm not fighting that the semiconductors are saying look you can think whatever you want we are the we are the engine of the world economy yes you've got crude oil but you've now had a parallel move in in in the last 50 years where the semiconductors are the engine of economic growth and therefore if they are failing for whatever reason doesn't matter please respect it and i do respect it that's why subscribers have a very high a very high cash position and the stocks we have you are very selective now let's go to this i want to just finish that up i'm almost sure i haven't finished and this is the qqq in the x100 i went to a lower low today it's it's almost impossible to believe that it went to a lower low after all the selling pressure it just didn't even have the strength to hold its gain and now it's a 317.01 this is going to be important i'm going to use the i'm going to use the microsoft in a moment left side right side price time match as well as 317.45 low of the qqq back on march 11th march 11th and the runs runs up to 371.83 peak b minus because it failed and now it's gone to a lower low it's gone to 350 and 36 so now what we do is let's do the let's do the exactly the same analysis we've done before look you've got your left side low of the 11th of 317.45 we've got today's low of the 27th at 3 so far 315.35 days young anything can happen and look what we've got we've got much stronger technicals back in early march than we do right now but the on balance volume is giving a little v-shaped attempt and the stochastic at 6.71 is absolutely i mean that is so weak so what we have to do is we have to get trigger points and you have to find some stocks that are going to help well let's go to microsoft and see what that's done well microsoft has gapped up 13 at 283.15 when we're doing the analysis yesterday i said there's just a slightly positive divergence between the two let's just hope it holds 270 because if it doesn't it breaks the round number low of 270 on the 3 on the 8th of march which ran up to a peak d remember we're always looking for ds at the doji candle high three weeks later and then what happens in the 315s it turns around it comes back to what to yesterday's low of 270 i don't think it was updated it was 270.77 yep it is updated so that's that that's that move right there so what do we need to see to be able to have the qqqs respond to just one stock i mean if you go to google it did exactly the opposite it broke it's already broken for a week now it's broken the left side low that was so important the low of april sorry february the 24th of 2495 and here it is down at 22.97 if you're looking at any of the other so where is leadership going to come from amazon down again today down 50 at 27.38 so i'm saying for me i'm forgetting about the other indices i'm saying that i'll week the q's all the week together with the semiconductors the q's are the weakest but you have to say what can what can unfold to get this market to really move strongly and sustain a move up what do you need leadership so the question came in what about dear we had dear we got out of it with profits um and uh we earlier we had some losses then we made made up money now look at dear from the 446 left side very good technicals at pt at 437 98 in march it comes down then tests and it goes above nicely about 446.76 and that was exactly a week ago and now look what it's doing testing the 200 period moving it's acting very weak i don't i don't see leadership in many areas at all if you go to the the qqq let's go to um let's go to syntax peak e at about 437 38 in the last group comes down and it's close to testing the 200 period moving average so it's very selective but at the same time once the move we've seen it once moves start buyers seem to come in sellers seem to come in so i'm saying unless the doubt can get to the plus 95 you're going to hold the rules to close gotta be real careful i'll be back the gold market has taken off top side in a large way if you want to take advantage of this sector now is the time to subscribe to my gold report the gold report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector as well as the markets that move gold which is the currency and bond markets new subscribers get a 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you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days weeks or even months searching to find and right now we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month we are so confident that you're gonna love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day unconditional money back guarantee don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting tfnn.com this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com i've posted an mlp etf i had a question about that 37.75 down 24 cents made a peak e pullback very sharply one of the things i'm looking at here is how do these oil and oil sector anything related to do with oil how are they acting how they're reacting what is the story that they're telling us if you look at this you know my rule of the rectangle you can consider this almost like a rectangle even that's more like a cup formation it's gone back into the bottom of the of the rectangle as it ran up to the 41s and now it's a 37.76 you are long i'm going to suggest don't add just yet i'd rather be adding if i see excuse me that sneeze i forgot to do the sneeze and now i've got it off the way good this is yes it's acted really well the monthly chart is still looking good it's in leg c and i suspect that 35s is going to be very strong support i just hold it for a little bit yes a point would make any difference if you're looking at this breaking out to really get to the 42 43 level which i think would be a target for me longer term but right now i think a point would make a difference because if you get in now 37.81 and there's a weak session tomorrow that wick it's almost like it's very much like a roman candle says that if any point if a mlp a larian mlp if it starts to trade for 90 minutes under 37.50 there's a really good chance it's going to retest the low of 36.72 and that was a three days ago i i just hold off your in it i just see there's a gap and it hasn't filled the gap it's really working away on the other side so just be real careful so let's just do this i'm going to say hold off let's look at it again in a couple of days let's go to brint in martinez brint how are you oh i'm doing great basil how are you i'm well thank you you're trying to take a look at the vix yes i had gone over at the other day and i for some reason my mind i thought at that point was it uh in leg c and i only wanted to do with that big move up yesterday and i thought that might have been a leg deep but could you take a look at it please so the vix itself is in leg c um it'll be a peak c if it doesn't go higher than yesterday's high of and now that does that 123 it could certainly do that today um at 33 81 that was the high it's a 32 71 right now 77 right now so do you still own it no no i just i know we're getting along in the count and so now something i was gonna kind of use is a potential gauge for maybe a bottom in the market yeah so let's do this let me just do this i just for a brief you want to go to uv x y which is a trading vehicle and that is only in a leg a and that's why i like to always look at these things in context of the other the other um the instruments that go along with it and remember the one thing i always say about the volatility index is it's the only instrument i know that doesn't conform to the chaplain wave when it does um it's unusual but mostly it can go to a very strong a and then a very strong whoops if that's the low this is an a right here a b c and it can get to a d just like the uv x y did and turned down very sharply that x at this particular point looks like a normal acceleration to an upside but i like to say that the volatility index is the one instrument that don't don't expect that because there's a peak c there needs to be a d it could fail in an a it could fail in a b it could fail in a c it could fail in a d we've even got it at this particular point in that let me just do this vi x dot x uh whoops typing the wrong place that's an a uppercase a and now i'm going to do this one more time vi x dot x so as i as it stands right now the it went there in the in the weekly chart uh the fake ukraine situation really spiked at higher and that was that was in February right oh no that was in january that was that was pre january there were other things that were going on it was just like a warning and then all of a sudden we got the action and then the warning itself i forgot to put the price in was 38.94 and we never got above that this is always for me so fascinating because it has to do with human emotion so um and it's due with the um the we call it a fear factor but mostly it's done on the options out of out of the month options and it's premiums that are assessed so i i like to look at it differently if you look at these 85.44 high of march of 2020 with the corona virus and the business and the fed and everything going on uh that was a peak c and so this is the one time that i treated as a separate entity so yes it's in leg c i have to tell you that the magnice strong the stochastics at 82 percent if it was a stock i would be drawing in i'm going to do it right now let's see if this is going to work out i draw in the arch formation uh going to well i we've got the arch formation now we got the cup formation and it's a pretty deep cup if i can get that to click there it is and now we're going to put the right side and if there's a time price match no i don't think yeah maybe there is this is to it this way and it says buy oh my it says so much for my april candle uh for the s and p it says buy there it is by may the fourth there's a chance that it could hit now once again this is a volatility index normally i wouldn't be doing this i'm just saying if it was to con concur with what i'd normally do as a price action of a tradeable like a stock or etf or a currency then i'd say the high that was made at 37.52 on the 8th of march should be matched up uh by the what i say fourth of may and it should go to that level it can do it earlier it could not do it it doesn't matter i'm just saying that's the way i would draw it and then i've drawn inside this one's going to be a little sharp it doesn't matter that's just the way i always do it and that says that today if the if the market drops further from here now the dial is almost unchanged s and p is up five i don't know what the news was it must have been some news it says that the volatility index at 33 89 would see the market go even deeper to the downside but at this particular point i have to say i don't expect in this case because it's the vixx index that there will be a d but absolutely you're correct in saying it's in leg c we saw that the u v x y went to a low a low that negates everything it says it has to start fresh which is done it's still i have to tell you just on a purely visual basis this vixx index the u v u v x y which is the uh pro shares vix short term uh index etf i don't know what they call it etf short term fund what do they call it short they just say short term um it looks to me like it's very overboard and it wants to pull back some but that's the days yeah so um i to answer your question you're absolutely correct to to to give you some elucidation all i can say is that it is the vixx index the volatility index is the only tradable that doesn't concur with the chap and wait methodology it's an independent being because it has to do with emotion um and if by the end of the day the vixx index which is trading at 31 94 actually starts to trade under 31 and goes to 30 40 40 we could still see a pretty decent rally hope that helps you it does thank you so much basil have a great day you too thank you so much for calling it was appreciated we'll be back folks down is up 30 are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the 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weeks a few weeks ago you had said you were doing it for a jay or a jane or someone and i took your advice let's see lulu lulu and i got in and it did your target with that inside wedge and then i got out where would you get back in so lulu lulu lulu went well that must have been or the beginning of april so it was somewhere around 360 370 maybe 372 i remember at the time talking about it and say yeah it's got a leg c and it should go to a pc and i drew in the chaplain wave the cup formation left side right side price time match 406 was the round number high that was made earlier on uh december 2021 and then we pulled back to 278 another round number and i said that would be my target um so i held a 200 period moving average and i got there where would you where would i re-enter i have to say that yeah this is what i'm saying the leadership here is kind of pathetic it's so hard to find leadership um sustainable leadership so it made a peak e at 410.70 it's under the 200 period moving average i would say just another day give it another two days i'd stay away i wouldn't be going back into lulu lemon uh there are just too many things going on if it didn't rally off the 200 period moving average which this particular pattern demanded uh all i'm going to say is that peak b in the weekly charts and sitting on nine and 14 period moving averages still uh with the green nine period over the 14 i i kind of like it i think it's in an area that could do well under certain little lemon that is is trading now 352 down 53 says hold off a little bit i i'd rather be buying strength and weakness i'd rather be buying higher highs and higher lows than lower highs and lower lower so that's it next question came in could you look at apple uh apple earning surprise on thursday to the be a market catalyst you know i don't know if it'll be a market catalyst it could be very much like microsoft the kind of a relief um but thus far just like the dow and of course apple is a big part of the dow apple is um yeah you see what's happened that monthly candle is below the nine period exponential moving average but above the 151 14 period moving average price that is um i suspect let's see if microsoft's holding now microsoft is yeah it's doing very nice he's up 14 and 284 not a great pattern at all but a double bottom like this i don't really drawn this in to say in microsoft you can get the arch formation that's the dreaded age that is successful and the technicals turn up or the weekly technicals are better but they're not turning up so this is where there is a chance that it could turn into a cup formation it morphs from a very negative to a very very positive pattern but it hasn't done it yet i need another couple of days so what i can say this is a clue so apple holding very well also done the arch formation also holding very well so far in the weekly chart the daily chart is not close to the 150.10 low that was made back in early march and yeah we are at one with a low today of 155 38 um it's a little it's a different cup of tea because apple i from the pattern i'm looking at it looks to me like the awesome chip problems here that's number one but their revenue stream from um from the monthly subscriber base that's been core i mean apple's changed from almost like a growth start to a to some form of dividend stock i mean not really but i'm saying it's it's it's morphed from from a growth pure growth stock in character so here's what i'm looking at thursday that means not today but tomorrow so if let's just talk about results i'm not talking about uh where we are right now but i'm doing about results if on friday morning i don't care what happens i don't care what they say i only look at price action if on friday the price action says that apple at 162 instead of being 157 right now is it is two to three points above the key 162 level by sometime on friday that to me would say who save by the bell it's not a fantastic chart pattern but save by the bell is what we're looking at right now and if that's the case then i am looking at um apple what does the apple stop sales in in russia and they might have manufacturing problems in china but they have a good issue of making the court and they could announce a huge buyback yeah that's what i'm saying so it has to do with a whole bunch of other things i couldn't care what it is i do care about price movement and the ugly candle of yesterday with a high of 160 2.34 and a low of 156.72 um you have to get right into the body of the candle and then move towards the upper end and actually by early next week you've got to be trading in the 164 165 area if apple fails and somehow other takes out on a print basis intro intro intro uh intro evening doesn't matter but on a print basis if anytime between friday and monday closes under 150.10 i think that's the that's that's going to be very serious because now it starts to impact the dow yes it'll impact the cues but that's everything impacts the cues so um would i be a buyer of the question is would i be a buyer of apple you know it's on my list for my subscribers because in the longer term it is it has been an incredible company i don't know what's going to change that turn it into a terrible company but at this particular point i'm just watching the chart formations and we need to see there's a trend line in the weekly chart that says the triple bottom sloping down uh it takes it to i'll give you the number right now yeah it takes it to next week 146 in the month of may if it goes under 146 not only is that a problem for apple i think then it's a problem for the general market does up 121 there's a piece of paper i wonder what that news event was that suddenly tanked the market i mean it's doing all the things that i've discussed is what you really want to see um if you want to see an update today and have this candle really move well to help the monthly candle but wow uh apple is the ultimate general this is like the g the gm's uh there was another g general mills um general food general foods years ago yep the three generals um all i can say is we're looking at that it's a question about xom that's xom is trading at uh up $29 83 58 it never did get down to the just below the 79 a level i thought would be a nice entry point if you aren't long at this particular level 83 this is nice action i'm looking at here i believe that xon mobile multinational is in play it was just for those of you who have gone out and got your core position if you want to get into your position i would split at 83 63 i'd probably say get your foot in the door for this extra position there's four points higher than i would have preferred but at least get your foot in the door but that's not the next position i would just get my foot into an xom that's up 133 sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at 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left side measured to the right side can work beautifully and only at the very end to in the in the on the upside you get a little doji candles on the downside you get the plunge he has the plunge in the euro and it's it's two weeks late when you go all the way to 2021 at 1.0664 where we today the low is 1.05259 so far so look at that beautiful art formation let me show you the dollar dxy look at that beautiful cup formation the target was 102.9 real long been long since 2018 at 19 102.99 was the target 103.04 as we speak look at that beautiful cup look at this it is it is two days late two weeks late it's a weekly chart but look at the chapter inside track target resistance line right there the dash green line it went right to the line today so all of these things are working out and that just says we're really on the cusp here because this breakout in in the dollar is it's kind of it's really tough for the multinationals right at the same time oh i didn't do this that's what i want you to look at the xlp oh there's so much i didn't do the xlp is pulled back this is the snp select staples spider fun and that's what i've been talking about all began to get the johnson and johnson's pulling back well it's still holding very well the proctoring gambles um pulling back is this where you see another rotation what's gonna leave the market up what's gonna leave the market down i didn't get a chance to do w e w e t f is that i want to show for the cap rate inside at the instant we start going to eat the off day just now see i'll do that tomorrow have a wonderful day does a bunch of things too i want to see 175 or more in the off in that have a great day