 Hello and welcome to NewsClick. I'm Paranjay Gohar Thakurtha and with me, all the way from Berkeley in California and the United States of America, I have Professor Pranab Bordhun. He recently retired from the University of California at Berkeley and he is of course a very, very well known economist who was educated at Presidency College in Kolkata and then at Cambridge University in England and of course he served on the faculty of various reputed educational institutions including the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the Indian Statistical Institute, the Delhi School of Economics and he's an author of 16 books, the editor of 14 books and written dozens of essays and popular articles in various newspapers and of course other publications. So thank you so much Professor Bordhun for giving the viewers of NewsClick your valuable time and let me inform the viewers that this interview is going to be done in two parts and on two completely separate subjects. In the first part of this discussion, we're going to talk about politics in Bengal and the second part of this discussion will be on the Indian economy and issues pertaining to crony capitalism in the Indian context. So Professor Bordhun, let me start by asking you how do you read the verdict of the assembly elections in West Bengal, the results for which we got to know on the 2nd of May and we saw the incumbent government, the ruling Trinamool Congress win by a sweeping, it was a sweeping victory for the Trinamool Congress at the same time we saw for the first time the Bharatiya Janata Party emerging as the biggest opposition party because the left and the Congress were wiped out, they got no seats in the state legislative assembly and what we also saw and what was very, very significant is that the BJP, its vote share came down from the looks of our elections in 2019 to the unanswered elections. So let me ask you to give you a few broader observations before I ask you specific questions on how do you read the electoral verdict in West Bengal? Yes, thank you Paranjaya. On 2nd of May, I certainly sighed a great sigh of relief even though I was never a fan of Mahmut of Energy, I was just great relief because she could defeat BJP. However, one should not exaggerate the extent of the defeat. Yes, the BJP vote share went down from the 2019 Lok Sabha election time but Lok Sabha elections and assembly elections, one should not directly compare. I think it should bear in mind that what looks like a landslide victory in terms of seats is not a landslide victory of TMC in terms of vote share. Yes, TMC vote share was about 48% but BJP vote share was about 38% which is a big percentage. But after all, Modi in Delhi rules in 2019 landslide election with only about 37 to 38% of votes. And you can add to that the NDS share. Yes, that comes to 44%. But 38% is a significant vote share. So I think looking to the future, one has to be very careful because the way BJP calculates is not like the way you and I would calculate. And some of their leaders have already expressed this. They say essentially that in a state where there are large number of Muslims and Muslims voted 70 to 75% for TMC. I mean the official proportion of the Muslims at the chair of the total population of West Bengal is around 27%. 27% as a 2011 census. Maybe it has gone up a little bit. But anyway, so their calculation, I'm talking about the BJP calculation that when about 70 to 75% of Muslim votes are going for TMC, what proportion of votes of Hindus do they need to win in West Bengal? And their calculation, and I've seen this in some of their articles, their calculation, they need about 60, 62% of Hindu votes. As a matter of fact, in this election, they got only about 50%. So essentially BJP thinks the gap they have to cover of Hindu votes is another 10%. So that's the way they calculate. Now, from our point of view, those of us who do not want to see BJP come to power in West Bengal, I think it is very, we should carefully note the composition of the votes. If you look at the CSDS election, post-election survey. Center for the Study of Developing Societies, the Locality Survey. Yes, please, continue. Yes. For West Bengal election, if you look at that, look at that, you will see the majority of Hindu upper and middle class votes have gone to BJP. Even in West Bengal, in spite of all the talk about secularism and this and that, the majority of Hindu upper and middle classes have voted for BJP. And then substantial fraction, and I think it's a majority, if I remember right, majority of schedule cost vote, particularly Mottua vote and a significant fraction. I think the majority of Mottua vote and a significant fraction of the Rajabangshi and other schedule cost vote are in the rest of India because Dalit vote. So, it's a significant, if almost the majority of schedule cost of Dalit vote have gone for BJP. And if I may add, a fairly substantial section of the Adivasi vote also, the schedule cost. I was going to say that the Adivasis, but compared to 2019, Adivasis vote for BJP went down this time. So, Adivasis didn't vote as large a number as the schedule cost, the Dalit's did. So, one has to keep this in mind and one has to remember that in some sense, BJP has already poisoned the well in West Bengal, which I thought would have been very difficult to do, but they have succeeded in doing so. Okay, let me interrupt you briefly here. Would you interpret the verdict and as we know the way the first pass the post system works, first pass the post, winner takes all and despite Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's personal, Mamata Banerjee's personal defeat in Nondikram to her arch rival Shubhendra Odhikari, who is now the leader of the opposition in the Individhant Sabha, would you interpret the verdict as more of a vote against the Bharti Janta party than pro-Trinamoon Congress and that a fairly substantial section of the electorate in West Bengal, almost half as you pointed out 48%, voted for TMC, not because they favored the TMC, but because they wanted to keep the BJP out or perceive that if the... My answer would be yes and no. I think large number of West Bengal voters, particularly women, voted for Mamata. Okay, I'm going to come to the woman voting a short while, but what I wanted to say is do you think that the electorate or large sections of the electorate in West Bengal perceive that should the Bharti Janta party come to power in West Bengal for the first time, that would in a sense change the politics and Narendra Modi's juggernaut would be unstoppable and what the international bodies like VDEM has said, the electoral autocracy in India would get a huge boost to use the words of political scientist Suhasthi. I would say this may be a dominant feeling among certain sections of middle classes around Kolkata because Kolkata by the way has largely gone overwhelmingly for Chinamoon, but as I already told you the majority of upper and middle classes have voted for much BJP. So if you take West Bengal as a whole, I'm not sure that stopping the juggernaut, it certainly weighed with some people, but I'm not sure to weigh to the majority, otherwise the majority of... because these kind of things is more the upper and middle classes really think about it. Okay, now about the women vote. We know that Mamata Vandapadda currently happens to be the only woman chief minister in this country and unlike many women political leaders who have had a male mentor, father, brother, husband, whatever, this is on her own steam, there's no doubt. But I think much more important for the women vote is the welfare measures that she has taken, the Karnashree, Shastrasati, Duaresharkar and all these things, I think she has become very popular with women because most of these are focused on women. Add something here, Professor Mordor. There is some anecdotal evidence to indicate that there were large numbers of families in West Bengal where the women voted very differently from the men. Exactly, exactly. I even saw just before the election, one press reporter talking to BJP families and of course men are the ones we're talking to them and men said, of course we are against Mamata and we're going to vote BJP. But as soon as the men went away a little on this, even in those families, the women whispered to the reporter said, we are for Didi. So that's certainly... let me go into something that I really, for news click that I would like to emphasize, going away from Mamata, essentially I think it is very important, apart from that it is not really that much of a landslide victory as many people think, but more than that I think the wiping out, complete wiping out of the left and Congress is something very important because in looking to the next few years in West Bengal, when Mamata's opposition is all from BJP, like the nature of politics everywhere, you lean in that direction. Left is zero in the assembly and all the opposition is from BJP, like all politicians everywhere in the world do, when your main opposition, in order to follow an election, you lean in that direction, not the leftward, maybe rightward, etc. I would not be surprised if Mamata does more Chandi part or as she was doing in this election a little bit as chanted Gayatri mantra and all that. But anyway, to me the major point is, what should the left do in this situation and the rest of this part of the talk, I want to address that issue. Okay, before you do that, I have two questions for you and you can give me very brief answers. The first question is, it was apparent to everybody that the election commission of India, which was supposed to be a neutral autonomous independent constitutional authority, that it was brazenly partisan, from the number of the fact that elections were held in eight phases, to the way in which in Jital Kuchi, the firing took place by paramilitary forces, to the manner in which even with the second wave of COVID had begun, the election commission of India did not bring together the last three phases. It's not accepted everywhere that the constitutional bodies quite often have been taken up, taken over by Modi's government. So I don't have a disagreement with you, but you are going on to ask some more specific questions. A second question, the BJP, the Bharti Janta party splurged on the elections, huge amounts of money was spent. Does the electoral verdict in Bengal also indicate that money power has its limits, that even if you spend huge amounts of money on social media, yes, you want to distribute money and alcohol and whatever, there may enough takers for that, but that can influence voter choices, electoral preferences only up to a point. Is this also an important message coming from the verdict in Bengal? I think so, but notice that BJP also lost in Tamil Nadu. BJP of course lost in, got no seat in Kerala, but in Tamil Nadu also, but I think Mamuta as an alternative, acceptable and popular leader made a big difference and that there the women issue comes up again because she was very, very popular with the women, even upper class women, not to speak of lower caste, lower class women. So that made, I think money helps, but not all the way. Similarly, I'm not sure, if you think about the 2024 election, it may not go in a similar way because there, people are electing Lokshava. So there they will think about the all India leader and Mamuta yet is not an all India leader. No, we've seen that in several states in the country, including Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, Orissa, where people are voting very differently in the Vithansabha elections than the Lokshabha elections. Do you think that might happen in Bengal too in 2024? It might, in 2024. So money power and the media and everything, the power that they have may work more strongly for BJP in the 2024 election because there is the candidate and an additional leader. So to return to the point you wanted to elaborate on, due to the issue you want to elaborate on and that is really what is the role of the left in Bengal. Left. Exactly. It was Bengal for 34 years, it won seven consecutive elections all the way from 1977. Earlier the Congress had ruled this country for a few decades, but today these two forces, both the Congress and the left, have been completely wiped out of the West Bengal legislative assembly. So what are the three reasons now that the left... I think there are many things here and I'm going to talk about some of them, but one thing that's very important is that left made a big blunder and that of equating Trinamool with BJP. In fact, they used words like DJ Mool. Today, I don't know what you have seen in the newspaper. Today, Surya Kanthamistro has come up openly that that was a big blunder we did and I think they now recognize it is a blunder. Even though their own party ex-Chief Minister Kripura Maniksharkar has been warning about them about this for quite even before the election, but they did not pay much attention, but at least late, better late than never, they have recognized this. Now that even if you recognize it, there are many problems that left us to grapple with. One of the reasons they were so much against Trinamool is because in a sense they have suffered from the local tyranny of Trinamool goons. In fact, in the 2018 Panchayat elections, about one third of the Panchayats uncontested. So that tells you about the local mafia-type tyranny of Trinamool. But having said that, let me add, this is not a qualitative difference from the CPM, the left-rule earlier. I mean it was far less. Exactly, exactly. But it's not a difference in, it's a difference in degree, but not a qualitative difference. I have been to many of these neighborhoods during the CPM rule, they had local mafia, they had syndicate Raj. If you want to build something, build a house, you have to buy materials at high prices or low quality from the local CPM Dadair-controlled syndicate or local committees. So local tyranny was there under CPM, particularly toward the latter part of the 34-year rule. And then Trinamool, in a sense Trinamool has really learned and took it to a larger extent the same techniques that CPM used to use in terms of local tyranny. I think one of the first things that the left has to do has to convince people because the people who are really suffered from that tyranny, they still have that memory. So you have to convince the local people, we have understood we made mistakes at that time, will not allow the local goons to dominate the local neighborhoods. That's something you have to do with. I think both the Trinamool also needs to learn these lessons because I remember, I interviewed a Trinamool member of parliament, Chowkottu Rai where he said, what happened during the panchayat elections should not happen. He said it in so many words. Right. So first thing I would say left has to convince with exact actual examples. Left I think still has under control even though they have no assembly seat, I think we still still control some panchayats. And in those panchayats, why don't they do and show people that they really mean when they say they don't go back to that earlier regime of local tyranny. So first you convince people in those panchayats where you still number one. Sorry, very good to say something. Yes, please continue because we are running out of time. So number two, I think the current leadership is not really too late. They now admit they're blunders. They are prone to blunders and the current leadership is discredited. I think they should give the leadership in the party to younger people. The first time there were a lot of young people who contested, they lost all of them. But they are at the junior level. They are the junior level. I know there are some of them are the JNU, junior level. But I think even at higher up levels, they should leave to two kinds of new leaders. One is younger leaders and the other is Dalit and Adibasi leaders because unlike in Kerala, in West Bengal, the leadership is dominated by uppercuts. That's number two. Number three is I think given that they have zero seats, I think it's unlikely if you ask me. Obviously they can't sink any lower. They can't sink any lower. But I think I don't think in the next 2026 election, I don't think the left is going to come back in a big way. But they can come back in a significant way if they apply their mind not so much to the election machinery, not so much to these short run tactics of who do they ally with. They should focus their mind on changing the what they do when they reach the people. And I've already talked about local tyranny. But let me now add, I'm going to add some things at the social level and at the economic level. I think it's a very good sign. They understood that doing social work makes them popular. In fact, in the, you probably know during the COVID pandemic, there are these red volunteers who come in a motorcycle with the help of various kinds, masks or oxygen, etc. And that made them very popular. So do more social work. And in fact, during the Amphan cyclone, they also did good social work. So I think you apply not so much in electoral tactics of how to win the next election, more to winning people's hearts through various things. I'm going to make a list. The first one is social work of that kind. Next would be another social thing. Take up important social issues, not necessarily economic issues. I'm going to talk about economic issues, but social issues that are important. Like for example, unlike in many other states in India, I don't know how many people know this, marriage at a very early age, marriage of little girls actually, 14 year, 15 year, 16 year old marriage is very common in West Bengal, in rural West Bengal. And that is something. Now some of the girls are now going to police to say that my parents are marrying me, but I want to study. CPM or left can take up these kind of causes which exercise real people. If you can briefly touch on the economic issues because we have limited time, Professor Walden. So social issues, but the other social issues that I want to mention is that in Kerala, they have used, they have not made this big distinction within class and caste. Nambutri, AMS Nambutri, starting from his time, who was a Brahmin, but he got the Aravava votes, the OBC Dalit votes. I think you cannot ignore caste issues in West Bengal. And even though you emphasize class issues, but you keep yourself open to caste mobilization and try to appeal Matua votes, Rajabangshi votes, and so on. Adibashi votes, etc. So use those other categories of social mobilization, not just class mobilization. Now let me come to economic issues. The West Bengal left has been very proud that they carried out some land reform, not a great deal of land reform, but some land reform and decentralization, the Panchayat system. And also Operation Borga, giving rights to the tiller. Operation Borga is the land reform, that's what land reform, the main thing is the Operation Borga and distributing some part of land to landless. Now I'll come to the land issue in a minute, but let me say decentralization in some sense has been distorted by two things. One, by Mahavata Banerjee. Mahavata Banerjee trusts the administration. So she trusts the video, local video more than the local Panchayats, Panchayat Pradhan. I think this has to change, because that's going away from local democracy, something that CPM used to be very proud of. The other issue is that this local tyranny that I talked about and local corruption, which is really now one of the reasons Mahavata wants to go away from Panchayats is because Panchayat's leadership is quite often corrupt. Panchayat leadership is quite often corrupt. So that's something CPM has to address. In the Panchayats that still control, try to make examples of corruption free and without free of local tyranny. The other issue is land, land reform. I think all types of land reform will no longer work, because in West Bengal, as in Bangladesh, the land has become over time small and smaller and smaller. Pragmentation of holdings. Yes. It's now so small, you have to go in the direction of cooperation. I'm not talking about cooperative farming. I'm talking about forming cooperative, keep your land, the land that you have, but you form cooperatives, which will do bargaining when you buy inputs, fertilizers, I think like that, or when you do marketing. And this is something, by the way, I used to discuss a lot with the CPM leaders, who are my friends. I said, look, you talk about neoliberalism, this and that, you are against capitalism. I understand all that. But if you are against capitalism, you have to give people an alternative. It is not enough to say I'm against capitalism. You have to then show with examples how you can have alternative organization, non-capitalist way. And as soon as you say non-capitalist, they will say, nationalize. Now West Bengal is a graveyard of failed state enterprises. So the old formula of nationalization will not work. So you start small organizations, non-capitalist organizations if you want, worker managed organization if you want, and show that even not at the West Bengal level, even at the local level, you can succeed until and unless you have non-capitalist organizations which succeed, you cannot convince people. And the other thing is their focus is on agitating for wage increase. But that is accepting capitalism. Wage increase is not enough. Most workers are not wage workers. Most workers are informal workers. Most workers are self-employed workers. Unorganized. Unorganized workers. So your trade unions have to not just enough to raise salaries of organized workers, which is a small island in a vast ocean of informal workers. Around 90% all over the country and also in West Bengal of the West Bengal. So again, not rhetoric. Create some organization, show that you can put in India the few successful examples of informal workers organizations and by Gandhians like SEVA and all that. Why can't the left have a single example of a successful organization of informal workers? SEVA and Gujarat, the self-employed women's association. Right. So you carry out some examples that you can carry out and do successful non-capitalist organizations and then people will be convinced. Otherwise, simple rhetoric, wrong with capitalists will not do. Professor Burgon, we've actually run out of time. I'm going to ask you a last question. I'll request you to give a short and a concise answer. What do you see after the elections? The opposition to the Trinomul Congress has played up the whole issue of post-poll violence. There are a lot of claims, a lot of allegations, a lot of content. So the second thing we see is that according to some, the BJP has turned out to be a rather poor loser. It is attacking the Trinomul Congress. There have been CBI cases, there have been all kinds of other initiatives and the role of the governor, most importantly, the role of the governor. And there's been a running battle of few, which is, you know, we don't see this kind of few between the governor of a state and the incumbent chief minister. I know all of this. My reaction to all this, how do you, what else do you expect from Modi regime? So assume the worst of them, but don't give them a handle. I know they're exaggerating the post-election violence, but there has been quite a bit of violence. So I think it is very important to deprecate that violence. Otherwise, BJP thrives on violence. It is a violent party. It is a party of communal authoritarianism and they thrive on violence. They may handle by being violent yourself, even if your violence is less than theirs. So I think you should honestly admit that there has been violence. We are very sorry for it. And we are going to punish those who have been violent, but don't exaggerate it. Actually showcases where they're exaggerating. They're using fake videos, fake news of violence and all that, but there has been violence. And this is not for the first time in Bengal. In Bengal, even under the CPM rule, post-election, there is to be violence. Whoever wins, and this goes back to the local mafia thing I was talking about. Local political arena has become a gangland warfare arena, a star force between different mafias. So when one mafia wins, it tries to be violent to the other mafia. And this has been going on, this is not today. I used to see that when Congress and CPM is to fight, when CPM and Trinamolier fight every year, every time. And of course, BJP is using it. And so in order to fight this force of violence, to me, BJP represents violence against minorities, violence against dissidents, etc. You be extra careful and be apologetic if there has been violence and try to do something in order to reduce that violence. So that is my reaction. And the role of the governor in this regard? Governors have acted in an extremely partisan manner. They have not been autonomous there, after all, whether we like it or not. All the institutions, I don't want to emphasize this because everybody knows all the other institutions. Governor is only a small institution. Much bigger institutions have been taken over by the Modi government. And of course, they are running rampant on those. But may I, just a couple of things, just in two sentences, I want to just be concluding remarks. Yeah. So on the economic issues, I just want to mention two things. I think in CPM time earlier, and then Trinamol also, even when they do welfare, they give to private goods, private services. I think the emphasis should be on public goods, infrastructure, busily salakpani, which are public goods. Because otherwise what happens, CPM time. Exactly. Public goods mean to me, these roads, a busily salakpani, and health, and education. In education, for example, all over the world, the most important type of education you can give to children is preschool education. So given a lot of emphasis on Anganwadi's and preschool, so why doesn't left take up that as a major issue? And of course, then universal healthcare because of the pandemic. So that's take up issues like that, focus on them, and make it very apparent to people. That's the way to get public support. Not concentrate on electoral tactics. Okay, thank you so much, Professor Borden, for giving us your views on politics in Bengal and what according to you the left should do if it wants to come out of, if it wants to rise from its present position, it has no seats in the assembly. So you have outlined a host of economic and social initiative, which according to you should occupy the mind space of the left in the near future. Thank you so much for speaking with Newsclick and for the viewers of Newsclick, I will inform them that Professor Pranab Borden will be speaking again to Newsclick in the second part of another interview I will be having with them. This time the focus will be on India, the Indian economy and crony capitalism and oligarchy in the Indian context. Thank you very much for being with us and keep watching Newsclick.