 Welcome everyone, it is seven o'clock in a not so sunny New Yorker at the moment, I believe it's 11 o'clock Chicago time for Dan, and we are going to get going here in just 30 seconds or so just allow people to file in and we are recording now. Okay, welcome everybody to this evening's session. It's going to be a pretty interesting presentation from Dan and conversation, as we are certainly as a global community and as traders navigating a very tricky geopolitical situation at the moment. And certainly for trade for those who are new to trading this this headline driven volatility can be pretty mind bending in terms of in terms of trying to navigate the markets I mean away from obviously the human suffering which is extremely sad. Our job as as traders is to is to continue to implement our process and our trading plans and try and navigate navigate through the volatility. So it's going to be a really interesting discussion tonight for a jump into to the discussion of dance presentation just a brief introduction firstly for those who have first time my name is Patrick Monday. I have been active in the markets for over 15 years I run a manager account service since 2013 annually profitable returns. I also have been responsible for mentoring hundreds of traders private traders all experienced levels from former CME floor traders to complete newbies and helping them to develop the process really to put in place a process and a plan that allows you to to consistently execute trades in the market, regardless of the market volatility of the market phase, and to to maintain the the mental strength that is required to discipline and the patients to just execute your plan and to not trade out of impulsive impulsive actions really. Most recently I have been obtained by tick mill as a resident market expert I provide daily market outlook fundamental and technical drivers for trading day ahead. I also provide three to five videos on a daily basis of trade setup time actively monitoring in the markets. I'm coming from, but more importantly tonight, let me introduce Dan Gramza Dan is president of Gramza Capital Management and DMG advisors LLC is a trader consultant to domestic and international clients and advisor to hedge funds and is a developer of ETF securities. Dan's work has been featured pretty much on every meaningful news outlet which is concerned with business activities. Dan has been responsible for presentations all over the world to both hedge fund banking clients. He's a former member of the Chicago rice and cotton exchange and he's established and run proprietary stock trading operations on the floor of the Chicago stock exchange. Dan has passed pretty much all the series three series seven exams, he's got a BA in engineering from Illinois Institute of Technology and an MBA in international finance from DuPont University, graduating with honors. The most important connection between Dan and I is I personally also have a pretty much now nearly a lifelong fascination with martial arts and Dan does too he holds a six degree black belt in karate and a second degree black belt in jiu jitsu. Without further ado, I would like to pass the floor to Dan, and we are going to hopefully glean from his experience here this evening and understand what the real impact in terms of the markets for the current geopolitical crisis which which we're all facing. Good evening Dan. Good evening Patrick. It's great to be with you. Hello everyone. I'm really excited about this topic, because it is something that we're all dealing with. And what I thought we could do with was to talk about some of the specific parameters that are currently happening globally, but let's get started. I do want to mention to you for tick mill CME group and myself, we're not affiliated with each other they're not endorsing anything I'm going to share with you. These are ideas that I found helpful and I hope you find helpful to as Patrick mentioned my background comes from the floors in Chicago that's my focus. I just have an impact on how I do look at the markets and we're going to talk more about that later on when I show you what I call behavioral Japanese candles. And also I've had a chance through a word of mouth network, primarily institutional to circle the global couple times of the year, although I haven't done that last couple years. Today I travel about 200,000 miles, dealing, as I mentioned, primarily with institutions on trading strategies and techniques and a variety of different markets. Also, I have to tell you that's given me have been blessed with the opportunity to see how different institutions look at the market. So the attitude towards risk, the attitude towards risk in China is different than it would be in the United States or in central Europe. The Chinese look at risk differently they accept risk. It's a different approach and plus they want a piece of the pie, where you know central Europe and and United States has have a piece of the pie so their institutional approaches are slightly different, but you know something. The thing that's most common. It's people, it's you and me, you know they have to deal with the same things that you and I do. And whether it's one contract that a private trader trades or 10,000 or 20,000 contracts. It's irrelevant. The fact is, is a good trade. Does it meet your specifications. And if it does, then it should be executed, but let's get going. And you know the topics I just listed a few that we're going to be looking at stock market, dollar strength, energy markets, gold, what's happening with gold soft commodities are going to be talking about a variety of them, because they're impacted with what's going on in the world. And if we think about some of those influences, you know OPEC supply and demand that we see for those those products OPEC represents about 45% of the crude oil market in the world. So they are a player, they do have an impact and supply and demand in general. And when we think about these commodities that we're talking about is a big parameter. You know, we've seen demand that we're talking about crude oil demand change when the virus started right we saw demand drop because people aren't traveling transportation change cruise lines weren't cruising and airlines weren't flying. So we saw a change in demand. And we also saw supply adjust according. And we've seen the current situation which I want to share with you in a little more detail. Inflation obviously does have an impact, because it means you have less disposable income. That means I have less to spend on other things. And I have to tell you consumer spending in the United States is a big deal. We watched that very closely, because 70% of our GDP is consumer spending. So what impact someone having extra disposable income means that they're not going to be spending money on other things. If it cost me more money to fill my tank up in my car. Well that's less disposable income. I have for other things. So it does have an impact so does currency. And we're going to talk more about that later on. What you're right now is saying well here's the deal on friendly countries you pay us and rubles not dollars, but we'll talk about that when we get there. Most crude oil in the world that's produced is transacted in dollars, some in euros but mostly in dollars. Here's where that comes into play. If I'm an oil producing country, I get paid in dollars. And I take those dollars I go to my bank and say, I'd like to sell you these dollars and buy my currency. Well depending on the strength or weakness of the US dollar that will determine how much of your currency you're going to get. The US dollar is weak, which means you're going to get less of your currency. Well, in that point you want current you want crude oil prices to offset it. So the relationship between the US dollar and crude oil is one of those factors that you and I want to keep in mind terrorism weather storms war geopolitical factors like we're experiencing now what does that do it creates uncertainty. And when we have uncertainty commodity markets respond to that, because it could be an interruption of supply stock markets in general. I'm going to show you some things later on that hate uncertainty, because what does that mean to the profitability of the companies that are in the stock market. We're going to have an impact on that with a maybe we don't want that. And so we'll see a shift in capital. Also the pandemic that created uncertainty as I mentioned you demand went down. We saw markets adjust to that government regulations, a stroke of a pen in Washington DC, for us here in the United States will actually potentially other countries can change everything. So government regulations what's allowed and not allowed the perception of what should be and shouldn't be can have a tremendous impact on markets. And it doesn't take a lot to do that perceptions of supply disruptions. I can't tell you how many times that's what women I'll tell you about one. I was actually, this is years ago I was teaching a course with oil companies, and I was trading my account as I was doing it. I'm ashamed to say this but it was very sloppy. And at the end of the day I realized I'm coming into the clothes I thought I was flat. No, I called the floor. My driver's calling the floor at that time, told him, you know, I buy 10 or whatever it was, and I got my sheet next morning I'm short, and an oil North Sea oil platform blew up overnight. So, I'm short the market North Sea oil platform blows up the next morning. These, and I also since I thought I was short I told the floor, play the tape, whatever it is, it is, I'll stand by whatever it is but I think I'm flat. But they do play the tape as the market opens and says, they were correct. I was wrong. My mistake. But I'm talking these oil companies in there I say what do you what do you know about this North Sea oil platform blowing up it said oh, yeah we know about that's not a big deal. It really is not going to have any impact on the global markets in terms of supply. So here's where it was the previous day it opens higher because of perception of supply and eruption. By the end of the day the market starts absorbing information, and it says hey you know that platform, well he isn't that big a deal, and it ended up closing lower than the previous day. That being said, I would have had a very profitable trade by the end of the day. I also want you to know, I did not. I had a loss. Because when I heard my count, and I was wrong I had an error I immediately exited the position. And the reason is, I had an error. It was my mistake. I shouldn't have had it on, and I wanted out. It's an important thing is it reality, or is it the market perceiving something global demand, particularly from emerging nations, you know it's exploding when it comes to our marketplace. If you look at China, China has more people living in the city now than they do in the country. They had over the last five to 10 years, over 350 million people moved from the country to the cities. The population of the United States moving to Canada. It's significant those people want stuff. They want refrigerators and stoves and things maybe they didn't have before so tremendous demand internally to supply that. One of the things I look at when it comes to a country, and I find it helpful that I'll share with you is. What a developing country. I look at consumption of protein. I mean, what do people do when they get a little extra money. Probably one of the things they do they want to eat better. And it could be eating better is eating more protein. If you look at protein chicken consumption and China up 500% the world's largest hog producer and consumer now wasn't 10 years ago but it is now. People have disposable income. The other thing you see is that people take vacation you see Chinese tourists now around the globe. You don't see that if you don't have disposable income. So it tells us something where they are consumption wise with the population then the next thing you look at is where are they and development of a capital market system. You know, 20 years ago China had 50 futures exchanges. They shut them all down, started over. I've worked with some of the new exchanges actually, and they're doing well but they were assigned what market to trade. What are they in that development do they have options do they have bonds that that's some of the things I look at, I just wanted to share with you. Well, refinery fires, you know maintenance shutdowns, emergency shutdowns there's a big difference between those a fire and emergency shutdown that's not planned. That's a shock fundamental. Usually shock fundamentals do not cause a long term trend change. That's not a shock fundamental, the market can react to it, but it's also not something will cause a long term trend change. Now let's talk about crude oil for a minute. 100 countries, about 100 countries produce crude oil in 2025 countries produced about 50% of the total production United States Russia, Saudi Arabia. Very unique group of countries. They can all produce over 9 million barrels a day. They're the only ones in fact that can do that. Now United States prior right before the pandemic. We were closing in on 13 million barrels a day. So we were getting very close to that level. Saudi Arabia now is doing talking about doing investment of billions of dollars to increase their production capabilities to 13 million. Changing environment. But oh the other countries Iraq, Canada. You know we do more business with our friends in Canada, importing oil than any other country, Canada, Mexico. Those are the places that United States imports crude oil from. We import it. We process it, and then we sell back those process goods actually. There's something else I got to tell you about. And you know Patrick mentioned, you know if you're just looking at futures if you've never traded them before. You know he's got some tremendous things to share with you. And this is something I just you got to be aware of. You know it's, it's something that I think is open the door to the marketplace in ways that no one ever expected. And it's called the micro WTI crude oil futures. So you're looking at the futures contract which you and I are going to look at in just a little bit, but it's a way to trade it with the much smaller capital requirement. If it's 8000 for margin on a full size futures contract, it could be 800 on a micro. If it's, it's $10 a tick penny in the full size contract it's a dollar in the micro contract. Now what that means if you're not familiar futures for margin. It means it's the amount of money that is allocated to every futures contract you hold. So if I buy one micro crude oil futures contract and the margins 800 $800 is allocated to that position, whether I buy or sell, and I can't use that money until I close the position. So my capital requirements much less your tick exposure per tick is much less. But here's the thing. Here's what I wanted to show you. Look at this stuff. Let me grab my little annotator. There we go. 10 million contracts in the last couple months. This is a new contract. So so what does that tell us to me volume says something about market acceptance. That's what we're seeing average daily volume 68,000. You want to buy a couple, you probably could get that done 8.7 thousand average daily open interest. Now tell you why I think that's such a big deal is what is open interest mean. It is the number of contracts that are held overnight. It is the number of people who are paying margin. They're willing to do that because they believe one they can get in and out that it's a liquid market, and they're willing to hold a position. This one down here. 37,000 number of unique users. Now, this is just my opinion. But when you look at these new product now, by the way, seeing me has Michael products on stock indices currencies, you know, interest rates we've got these energy markets. There's a lot of these products, but what it hasn't happened is that hasn't taken volume away from the main contract. If this was scavenging the main contract you'd see volume there dropping, this would increase hasn't happened. These unique users, in my opinion, are people trade equities that are now maybe considering trading futures. That's where that new order flow comes from, I believe, because lower capital requirements, lower exposure. It's a very easy market to trade. Here's the other thing. 36% of the volume from non us hours. This is not a market that trades only in the United States and if you're in another time zone, forget about it. That's not the case. The fact is, crude oil is one of the largest demanded futures contract around the globe, and we're seeing it, you're seeing it trading almost 24 hours a day. I want to show this with you. If you're interested in energy, you know, maybe this is a product you might want to consider. Alrighty, let's do this. There we go. Move this. There we are. Okay, let's talk about the Russia invasion of Ukraine. I have a lot of different ways I want to show this to you, because it is front and center, and what's going on. In India, let's start with them imports about 80% of its oil from Russia, and it also gets medals from Russia for its automobile industry the fifth largest automobile industry in India. Tata motors if you're in India, it's, well, it always amazes me when I'm there. Let's go on though. The rates to charter giant oil tankers worldwide have increased 400%. That has an impact, the cost of delivery, the cost of moving of transport, and also hundreds of tankers and bulk carriers are diverted away from the black sea. You know you put your tanker there you may not get it out. So they're not going there so Russia may have some oil but can you sell it. Tankers have been stranded at ports and at sea, unable to unload their cargoes. Whenward estimates 87 million barrels of Russian oil, where $10 billion is floating out there in the ocean, trying to find some buyers freezing the assets of Russia's biggest bank means, as we both know it's going to have an impact on importing, as well as exporting from Russia. Let's talk about that gas. Third largest traded physical commodity by the way crude oil is the largest traded physical market on the CME group. Three primary uses in the United States. And it's about a third for each one of these. In the United States, we use about a third of our supply to do that in the northeast part of the United States they use the heating oil to heat their homes. But let's move on. Industrial steel industry, chemical industry, gigantic users of natural gas. We use another third for electricity production. We produce more electricity with natural gas than we do with coal. It burns 60% cleaner than natural gas and economically, it makes sense for many parts of our country. Now. Well, Europe is the top destination for us LNG. LNG means liquefied natural gas. We have a gas, right. All these molecules can float around and in the atmosphere. Well, if you gather those molecules together, and you squeeze them down and you get them cold. So they're not so bouncy, you go from a gas to a liquid. And that is what we're talking about with LNG liquid natural gas. Well, for the last three months and for this current month, nearly 75% of the volume from the US has been exported to Europe. The other thing with that, when it comes to this idea of exporting, I want you to know, a year ago. Six months ago. That wouldn't have been the case. We were exporting to Europe and not as much because what we were paying $5 for Europe was paying $25 for and Japan was tweeting, paying 28 to $29. So a lot of our LNG went to Asia. That's changed obviously, but the current situation. Something you know we didn't have in 2014. When we had Russia taking over Crimea. We didn't have the import facilities in Europe, Germany does Poland does. We didn't have export facilities in the United States, not many. In the Gulf region, we have probably over 20 under construction we have a number of methods already been built, primarily in Louisiana and also in near Houston in Texas City. We're building more, because we're trying to supply more for our friends in Europe. Russia gas shipments to the Ukraine. Let's talk about that a billion dollars of fee revenue for the Ukraine. So they shut that down it's not only hurting Europe, but it's also revenue stream for our friends in Ukraine, crude oil at $70 a barrel just wanted to give you a reference that made $120 billion for Russia. Russia wants Nat gas this is new. Well, as of yesterday. Putin says, here's the deal for countries that are giving us a hard time, unfriendly nations, they want to get paid in rubles, not dollars or euros. Well, and he's given gas from their natural gas company for the country, and the central bank to sort this out in a week. Well, let's think about this. Unfriendly nations accounted for 70% or around $69 billion of gas prompts income in 21 per Dimitri Polovapolov. Supply contracts will be needed to be rewarded to allow to switch to payments. But once you do that. You're renegotiating the contract. Now, terms could be changed in a way that's not favorable for Russia. So all kinds of negotiations now take place. And it's not going to happen in the day. It's going to take time to do that. It also would require Western governments to hold rubles and their central banks or buy them in the open market. So what does that do. It increases demand for ruble and that's good for Russia said they've had some challenges with the value of the ruble. And that means also it would skirt financial sanctions, which is where that US dollar comes into play. So Putin trying to chip away at the dollar dominance. This is not a new idea by the way. The oil producing countries have tried to make usually countries that aren't friendly to the rest of the world, tries to use another currency than the dollar, you know, dollars about 80% of all global transactions. And so if they could get the ruble to replace the dollar. Now they have control over that right now United States and other countries are squeezing those US dollar assets. I mean, India has accepted the euro as a payment for crude oil. Japan has to by the way, so other countries have accepted other currencies. It's not like it's never been done. But it's a very, very small part of the marketplace. So this is something that's happening right now will be interesting to see how it shakes out. I also wanted to give you an idea of where does this gas prom this Russian that gas flow, what countries. What other countries by the way they're much smaller in terms of percentages. But if you look at the list here, double digit, our friends in Austria, France, Germany, Italy, and Turkey. Those are all double digits in our, if you look at Germany, it's 45%. So it's significant in terms of what's going on so when people say well, shut it off. It's a nice idea and it would be great to do that, but you got to have a contingency plan. And we'll see what comes out of these meetings this week. Now let's shift from energy from Russia to wheat. So I want you to see here in this chart that Russia is the largest exporter of wheat. And Ukraine, it's about number five. Ukraine used to be below Australia, Australia is around number five to number four, but Ukraine's, you know, increased. France is the largest wheat producer in Europe. Then we have our friends in Canada, and then the US. Well, there are some challenges when it comes to this week and let's take a look now this is for 2019. Russia, as I mentioned the world's largest exporter of wheat, more than 18% of global exports. Ukraine and Russia 30% of global wheat exports. The countries that risk Egypt, more than 70% of Egypt's imported wheat comes from this area of the of the world, so it is a big deal for them. Let me put that back up there. There we go. I was trying to move the picture here. But it's important. So, you know, the riots they had in the Arab Spring, it started with the price of wheat of bread. Excuse me so having wheat is critical for that country. India, India, by the way, China and India produce more wheat than all the countries that in the country than Russia and other countries. They're just producers of wheat. They really don't export. China doesn't produce enough to export. They import wheat. First time in 14 years, just a few years ago, maybe 10, 15 years ago, India also imports wheat. Indonesia, Turkey, they really rely on that wheat from Russia. You know, and, and from the Ukraine, about 50% of the grain for the World Food Program buys to feed 125 million people worldwide. 50% of the grain comes from Ukraine. Approximately 78% of Turkey's wheat imports come from Russia, another 9% from Ukraine. Weed is used in Turkey's food industry and processed food is a major Turkish export. Sanctions imposed on Russia means harvested in stored wheat is not being bought. There is wheat harvested there, but how do you transport it? Who's going to buy it? This is Russia. It's just another area and I'm mentioning it because this is a big deal. When we think about crops, we think about wheat. Well, there's this backup system that supports that. Russia, major exporter of potash ammonia and urea and other soil nutrients. Disrupted shipments of those key imports, inputs around the globe. Russia and Belarus, Belarus, by the way, accounted for more than 40% of the global exports of potash last year. Critical nutrients to boost crop yields. Russia accounted for key types of fertilizer. 22% of global exports of ammonia. 14% of world's urea exports. 14% of mono-ammonium phosphate, MAP is what it's known as. Those are big deals. Brazil, the world's largest soybean exporter, relies on imported fertilizer, accounted for 38% of the crop nutrients used last year. What's the deal? You and I are a farmer. Brazil, United States, Europe. I need fertilizer. My costs are going up. So what do I do? Do I? Global demand is high. If I don't have the fertilizer, my yields are going to be less. I don't actually plant less. And I think that's something we're going to be seeing. Russia and Belarus were the source of 50% of those shipments for Brazil. Ukraine wheat harvested and stored last year. It's not being shipped. What happens to the winter wheat currently in the ground that was planted in the autumn and should be harvested in the spring? Ukraine, 16% of global corn exports. Ukraine supplies 60% of that corn to EU. Who's going to plant it? Ukraine and Russia supply 75% of the global sunflower oil. And that's about 10% of all cooking oil. Crops like sunflower and corn, they're planted in the spring. The farmers will be able to plant those at all. Between the war drafting Ukraine, you can have the manpower to do it, invasion itself, and the supply shortages of fuel and fertilizer. The next few months could be very interesting. Russia for the United States, second largest supplier of platinum. Platinum and palladium in the construction of catalytic converters for our cars. Ukraine supplies more than 90% of the semiconductor grade neon gas used in the US semiconductor chip manufacturing. Now I've seen that number from 60% to 90%. But it's critical for semiconductor chips. That we had supply problems before. Russia supplies 35% of the palladium used for chips. They also use palladium and manufacture of semiconductor chips. And as I mentioned, in catalytic converters, a large impact on European car manufacturing. Volkswagen BMW been closing assembly lines in Germany, due to the shortage of wiring harnesses manufactured in Ukraine. The entire manufacturer Michelin announced it would close plants in Europe due to the logistics issue created by the Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Now I want to put in perspective before we jump into the markets. Where, where do these economies fit in to the big picture. Russia economy 11th largest economy in the world. It is 1.7% of the global economy in 2020. So it is not a gigantic economy globally. Russia's gross GDP is roughly 1.5 trillion, slightly smaller than the GDP of Texas. Ukraine's economy is approximately the size of Nevada's economy, which ranks 33rd in the United States. Prior to the invasion of Ukraine, the total value of the Russian stock market, which just opened up by today, by the way today, with all kinds of restrictions. You can't short stocks, you know, and well supposedly not until April 1, which is coming up. Total value before the invasion, about 251 billion. That's roughly equal to the market capitalization of PepsiCo, which is a US, you know, food company and beverage company. The idea of where these pieces fit together in 2020 36.5% of all Russian imports. 37.9% of its of its Russian exports were with the EU. Just to give an idea of how those pieces fit together. Now, I want to talk about war and stock markets. Let me show you Vietnam, Gulf War, Afghanistan, Iraq war, and the Crimea. And we're going to compare those to the opening the Gulf of Tonkin incident. When that happened, that was the beginning. Well, continuation, we were already in Vietnam as an advisor, but that really triggered the US involvement in Vietnam. Here's what the S&P 500 did. Here's what it did in the Gulf War. Remember, and I have here, January 17, but you know, it's actually I remember right after the first of the year, when the US started their crude oil in July was $15 I was working with some oil companies $15 a barrel in July, $18 a barrel in August. And I remember us talking, but there's no reason for us to get out. Yes, the diamond is putting his troops around Kuwait, but he's not going to invade. Well, he did. Obviously, it went to $35 a barrel $45 a barrel. Here is where perception comes into play. Was Kuwait a gigantic oil supplier? No. Was it a supplier? Yes. I think it was about one to two million barrels. Saudi Arabia could soak that up. And they did. So we did not have a supply shortage. We had a market that was rallying on uncertainty. In Afghanistan. You can see the stock market was down as it started and it continued lower. Iraq war. The market was down and then it turned the corner and went up. The Crimean crisis. That also was in an uptrend. It broke back, but then it continued up. So I just want to give you a point of view. What does this mean for the stock market? Who knows first? Who knows? But it's how the markets reacted in the past. A leading, I'm putting this in here. I have just two slides, but I want to share this with you. I'm not saying anything's going to happen. It's a Taiwan from China. And I pray to God that it doesn't. But I want you to understand what is that? What is going on there in terms of their exports and their imports? Well, here's what they export. No surprise, electronic products. Semiconductors are a huge part of that. You see a lot of electronics, metals, machinery in this area, vehicles, aircraft, transport equipment, electrical machinery products. So that's what they export. Here's what they import. Their sources, United States, the EU, New Zealand, Japan, Australia. And you see a variety of goods that they bring in, you know, food products that they cannot produce enough in the country and they'll import it from other countries. And that's what we're seeing here. I just wanted to mention it. Let's hope that this has never becomes an issue. The last thing I want to share with you before we start looking at the markets is behavioral Japanese candles. This is something that I saw in Japan in the mid 90s. It was late 80s, mid 80s in Japan. I was teaching a course at Bank of America for customers of the bank on a different technique. Anyways, and part of it was to trade you 30-year treasury bonds. And I went into the dealing room. We were looking for some trades. I see a fellow drawing these candle charts. A lot of you are probably familiar with candles. I would like you to put those ideas aside for a minute. And if you're not familiar with them, what I'm going to say is not the typical approach. But what many of you know is that when the closing price is above the open, they draw a box between the open and close. That's called the body of the candle. I think it represents buyers coming into the market. It's the buying order flow that you would see on the floor. For example, as floor brokers would raise their hands, you could see if they're buying or if they're selling. And when they touch their face, they would show you size typically. I think it's better to leave prices move higher because more people want to buy it than sell it. And on the other side, when the closing price is below the open, I think it represents sellers. I have the high and low matching the body of the candles. As many of you know that doesn't always happen. And if the high price is above the body of the candle, that difference is a vertical line. I think it represents sellers at higher prices, and it represents buyers at lower prices. When we look at these markets, I'm going to use these as references, the size of the body is a measure of commitment, the size of the shadows and measure of rejection. And we're going to talk about that as we look at live markets. There's one other thing I just want to mention to you. I have a website that it's a free video. There's a course in advanced studies, but what I want to talk to you about is right here. The free video. And if you've never traded futures, maybe a place to begin is just watch them. And you'll have my commentary, like we're doing now, going through that. If you do trade futures, maybe only trade stock indices. And maybe you want to check out some other markets. Well, this may be a way to do that. Here's what you want to do. Let's start with some examples of interest. Start here, because what you'll see is a video. Get that little laser off my head. That video, that's the trading floor, by the way behind me at the CME Group. That video explains what you're going to see in the videos. So free market studies, click on learn more, get started, free registration. If you put some basic information in there, I will not contact you. You can sign up for a daily email that sent to you once the video is produced. If you're interested in that so you don't have to wait, you'll just get a little notification. You'll know when it's when I travel a lot. I could be doing this between three o'clock Chicago time, the seven o'clock in the morning, Chicago time. Let's start the email thing. Anyways, and again, I'm not going to contact you. All your information stays right there. Well, now let's do this. Let's get over to some markets. And what we have here across the top is we have the stock market S&P, NASDAQ, Dow, Russell. And then we have currencies. We have the Euro, Swiss, Japanese yen in this corner. I don't know if my little face there is in your way. Japanese yen there. The middle row Aussie dollar, British pound, Canadian dollar, dollar index, Bitcoin, then we have 10 year notes, 10 year yield, bottom row, gold, silver, copper, crude oil, net gas, and beans, I mean wheat and corn. Now, the reason I wanted to show you all these is what we're looking at is the capital flow around these markets. So typically, if capital is flowing into the stock market, today we're seeing green candles. So buying is coming into the stock market. Well, where does that come from? One of the places it can come from is right down here, middle row, second from the right is interest rates. That's a 10 year interest rate. Notice that's a red candle. So people are selling 10 years, they're buying, could be, they're sending capital to the stock market. In other words, when you hear risk on that would be a risk on trade. Capital is flowing towards the stock market. It also tells us these currencies tell us something about the value of the US dollar. And what we can see down here, it's kind of a mixed bag. In fact, I'm going to hold off because we're going to look at these in more detail. In fact, let's do that. But my point is, what you witness every day is how capital moves around the markets. And what I believe these charts show us, it gives us, you and I, an insight into where the capital may be coming from and where it may be going. Let's look at the stock market. Now, I'm going to tell you, you're seeing red and green line. This is what you would see in the video, that free video we were talking about. I pick a market and we'll talk about a particular market. These red and green lines represent buy and sell levels. I am not making buy and sell recommendations, nor am I suggesting that you do any of this. But I want to show you is how do I look at it, and how I analyze these markets. That's what I want to share with you. So this is a previous buy level for the S&P. This is a sell level. And depending on how we finish today that may move higher. If we look at over here in the NASDAQ market, that's a previous buy level, and here's that sell level. And what we're seeing is buyers are coming back in to the stock market. But can they follow through? Same thing down here in the Dow and over here in the Russell. Now the Russell marches to the different beat of a drum than these other indices. That's small to mid cap stocks and watch that one when we have a change in our economy. Oftentimes these smaller companies can react faster than the larger companies in this industry, although it's not doing it now, can lead these other indices. So you want to pay attention to that one. Let's take a quick look at what's going on here with currencies. Close that out. There we go. Alrighty. So what you have here in the Euro, this by the way was a previous buy level from over here. And it traded below and that was the sell level. So as the market moved up, the sell level moved up. By the way, you can look at the last couple years worth of videos. And so you can see, all right, what was what was going on on the market. What was Dan saying when this happened when it went through there. So the cell level was raised. It traded through that that's $250 change in value, the dollar value from the red to green line doesn't mean anything. Just giving you a feel for what that represents. This is the next buy level at Yeah, 110, 110 90 is the next buy level. So, excuse me, Swiss, he did the same thing. This is the previous buy level. So as the market was changing behavior. That was a possibility. Look at the changing characteristics of those red candles. And then all of a sudden look at this guy remember when it traded at the low, that was a big red candle and at the close of that period boom buyers came right back in. So a change in behavior. That's one of the reasons why that green line went there. These red and green lines are my interpretation of what I see with these candles. And that's also $250 there. And today it's trading above its bullish level. Which is 10880. 10780 and over here in Japanese and let's talk about Mr yen here. There we go. Let me move that over. I just thought it would be interesting for people who aren't familiar with futures to understand when you're talking about the Swiss and the yen. You're not talking about the spot dollar yen, which people often get confused about. Excellent point Patrick. Thank you. Very good. I like that. Yeah, let's go back to our friend here the euro. All of the futures contracts are dollar based. So it's euro US dollar swissie US dollar Japanese yen US dollar. And when you look at the numbers over here these numbers you see on the side. That is the value of one euro in US dollars. So if we look over here at 109 and a half, that was a dollar nine and a half cents. That was the cost of a euro. And you can see if I went if I went to the bank and said I'd like to buy one year, they say sure it's a dollar nine and a half. If I went back a few days later, and I wanted to buy it when it was up here. It was a dollar 11 and a half. And I'd say whoa, that euro got more expensive. And it means it cost more US dollars to buy that year. So the US dollar got weaker. And in the futures markets. Excuse me. All of these are based what we're talking about they're all dollar based. What is the value of that currency in US dollars. And so that's what we're seeing. And our friend here, the yen, that would have been as I put dash lines, these are something that happened recently. So I thought I'd show a couple of those just to give you a reference. And that traded lower and what you would see is that green line would start up here but it would move down as that market developed right there that little guy, that little shadow above knocked out that trade. And then it took it out. And then it went down to I want to point out to you, the dollar value here just as a reference was. What was it, it was $6400 but what we're looking at here, it traded above that that would be a buy, and it failed. I want to point that out to you as well. This was the next cell level. Some people have say well, don't you get upset when you get stopped out and no I pat myself on the head and say Dan, good job, follow the strategy. Doesn't mean I can't get back in again. The only thing it would prevent me from getting back in is, I'd say I already sold that I can't sell it again. I already bought it I can't buy it again. That would keep you from doing it, not the market. In this case, this was another cell level and happened to go lower. So right now, in tonight's video after the markets close that green line will be moved lower to recognize the further movement to the downside of the end. But look at our friends down here in Australia, lower left corner. There you see, you know buyers came in so that would have been a transitional type pattern. And now that red line would have been moving higher and it's going to move a little higher again. What you see here right now is potentially bearish. So we got to be cautious here in the Aussie dollar for that market. It's been a frustrating trade though, hasn't it the Aussie dollar risk risk has been pulling back and normally obviously you get that symbiosis with with the Aussie and the Kiwi. And that marching higher, like you were talking about the beginning, predominantly premised on commodity demand. Exactly right. You figure the Kiwi, our friends in Australia, the Aussie, the Canadian dollar right over here. They're all resource based economies, they sell stuff right and you're right on target. You know, and the number one customer of our friends in Australia is China, Japan, South Korea, United States, India, all large customers of that country, the largest exporter of iron ore in the world. So it's $5.6 for wheat. And so it yeah it's the demand is there and this currency is still responding to it. It's fascinating. I think, but I think we have to be cautious here. And let's just take a look at the other resource currency I have up here, Canadian dollar. It's called looney. This market is, by the way, when I say looney, if you're not familiar with currencies, I don't mean looney like crazy. I mean looney, like the loon, which is a bird, which is on their currency. So it just referred to as looney. Anyways, you can see it's slowing down. And as I mentioned to you before, we buy more crude oil from our friends in Canada than any other country by far. They have tar sands. We bring it, we, ooh, that's not good. We bring it down to the Gulf Coast. Excuse me. And we process it there. And then we sell, we find products back to them. But it's interesting, it's losing momentum, isn't it? And we're finding some sellers at higher prices. So again, this red line, that's going to be moving higher in tonight's session, primarily because we're seeing a change in character. The British pound also traded below its bearish level by just a few ticks. And then it came up. So by the way, if we were a seller here, that's underwater, that's losing money. And that dollar value would be $437.50 just to give you a feel for that. Again, it's kind of irrelevant. Over here in Bitcoin, it's continuing to move higher. This is a market that doesn't really follow any fundamental, I believe. People say it's a substitute for gold. I don't buy that. I don't see the correlation to it. It may be another source that people put money, but I don't think it's a source for gold kind of a relationship. Anyways, let's talk about this market. It's $40,000. There is a micro Bitcoin product. Oh my gosh, if you're interested in getting crypto exposure, check that one out. Again, it's a smaller contract. You're trading on a regulated exchange, you know, the CME group, the world's largest. So you don't have anything goofy going on in terms of settlement. If I trade cash Bitcoin, I got a problem. Who am I going to go to? Nobody. I have a problem here with Bitcoin when it comes to a regulated market. I have Ticna. I could talk to them. I'm sure they would help me. And we could also go to the exchange. The dollar value here just to give you a sense of that. It's the dollar times five is the way this is set up. So from $40,000 to $44,000. That's $4,000. That's times five. That's a little over $20,000 is the dollar value of that change. Doesn't mean anything, but I'm just trying to let you have a feel for that. Here's interest rates. This is the yield product at the CME, but that 10 year yield. So if you're comfortable looking at percentages of yield, this is what you could look at. And you could trade that. That's a micro product. What's the cost basis on that? That one, each Tic is $10. Right, okay. So if we go 230 and 231, that's $10. That would be the dollar change there. So it's a bit more affordable for people to trade than actually trading the notes. Yeah, yeah, yeah, it would be exactly right. And it's something, you know, in some parts of the world, institutionally, they trade yield, they don't trade price. So I know like in Finland, some of the banks have dealt with their day trade yield, they don't trade price. So for them, yeah, it is. It's quite, it's quite for, you know, newer traders and people trading on smaller accounts to stop waging into the Tino contract is mind blowing. But something like that, the yields is much more manageable, I guess. Oh, it is. You're absolutely right, Patrick. Thank you for mentioning that and bringing it up. Yeah, and if someone's used, they always hear what is the yield on the 10 year US Treasury, but now they can look at it and trade it. We're here on the right side over here in these 10 year notes, you're looking at price. And what you're looking at there for the notes and the bonds, these are $100,000 face contracts. They have a 6% yield. So that means right now, if yields interest rates were at 6%, and this yields 6%, this market would be trading at 100. That would mean $100,000. And so for every point you see it above that, that's another $1000. So right now, that byline is at $123,000. Why? Because interest rates are not at 6%. They're much lower. So this instrument, as futures contract, the price of it becomes more valuable. And if yields go up, the value of this instrument goes down a little bit, because it's not as favorable. So if yields go from 2% to 3%, that 6% yield now becomes less, a little bit less attractive. And that's why you have an inverse relationship between yield and price. And this one, you can see that a few weeks ago, we had a transition pattern. That's a double top, what I call a head fake, and it can last for a while. Those can be longer term tops or bottoms. This one happens to be doing that. Over here in the bond market, you can see I was doing the same thing. That was the previous cell level, but it got knocked out right there. And then son of a gun, it closed weaker, it came right back up and then it fell out of bed. This was the next cell level. And that's what's active right now. This buy level, I'm not going to change tonight. That's going to stay the same. That's at 1508. The dollar value here in that market. And just to give you a feel, that's $5,250 a contract and doesn't mean anything, but just shows you what the magnitude of changes in the metals markets over here in gold. This was a dash line or previous trades or concepts. Here was a previous buy level. Here's a cell level in that market. And that was $6,500 a contract. Now here's the current buy level there was 1931 1920 is a cell level. Now we had some follow through here. One of the problems with gold is the ability to consistently follow through. We had some volatility. We got above the magic 2000. And you can see what happened. A lot of people got in a lot of people took profits to. So it's interesting will be interesting to see if we can get moving up 1976 would be the next objective for that market silver. We had a very similar trade previously. Right now, silver is moving up. Watch silver. Silver is a market that can lead the metals. When it comes to gold, I can really have some volatility there that you want to pay attention to. And I do look for this. It's not as bullish as gold. So I'm looking for an inside maybe only slightly higher movement in the silver market. It's interesting, you know, silver and gold silver it does have industrial applications. So does gold 78% of gold is used in jewelry. It's what I call an excuse market. You know, high inflation weaker dollar it, you know, geopolitical events, we expect gold to respond to it that's supposed to be a store of value. When he comes out of the stock market. Maybe one of the places of my goal would be gold or silver copper on the other hand a base metal. I am bullish on now today it's not looking so bullish, but I am bullish on this market. The previous, if you were a buyer here and a seller there in that market. That was $2,250 a contract. But this is a market that's unique. And this implies down move for tomorrow for 67 would be the next objective for 65 is right now to sell level the previous buy level was 457. And if this does back off, I look for a sideways move, fundamentals here are incredibly bullish. We haven't gotten squeezed on supply yet Russia by the way supplies about 4% of the global supply of copper China consumes 48% of the global supply of copper The United States is number two, our friends in Germany is her number three, in terms of copper consumption. It's critical for electronics, we use four to 600 pounds of it in the home, when we hear build new homes, when you hear about new home construction United States, that would be the demand on copper. We use 44 to 99 pounds of copper in a car, depending on the model, about four times that amount for electronic I mean for a battery driven car, we use it in a copper foil. We use that in semiconductor chips. So it's a unique product that we don't have a substitute for. So I think long term watch that market. I'm really surprised that it's not above $5, but we don't have a squeeze yet right now either on supply. Well, just two more here. Here's a crude oil. Now we've been talking about that today and you know we've gone through where it fits in the big picture. You know it's $70 a barrel just to give you some background $70 a barrel 60 to 70 in the United States, it becomes attractive to drill for exploration in the United States are shale producers. Some can be profitable at $30 a barrel depends on their debt load. And some are not profitable until you get to that 60 to 70. And then it becomes attractive to start exploring. We have a number of wells that are drilled but not completed. And we're running out of those. And those are ones that we can turn on fairly quickly. The previous by level here was the, again, you know, again we saw selling coming in. And if you get above it, we would look for some follow through we also had those fundamentals, as we've talked about assisting this market, moving up. And the cell level was right here and that it traded through that. I don't remember what that was actually. This is a trade sheet I'm looking at. This difference is $21,100 a contract. Again that doesn't mean anything. And I'm not saying you should do this. And there's a micro contract. Oh my gosh, you and I saw that earlier remember that slide. If someone wants exposure here they could get that using that micro contract. And then the cell level here to this buy level was 9,000. Oh, it was $13,000 a contract. But what you see here is that false sense of security we talked about before. And you see one over here too. We're talking to trade above and right now. What do you think here, would you move that cell level up would you leave it where it is. Are you going to back off everything's okay when it comes to crude all globally. No, it's not has the Russia situation been replaced no. And you know we high probability Iran is watching very closely what's going on, and China, which is why I mentioned Taiwan, and they've been shooting off more missiles than they have in a few years is Iran people say well run that can just get a deal with them and get that oil flowing. That's about a million barrels. That's not going to do it. And do you want to sacrifice other things to do that. So that situation still volatile, could we go higher. Yes, my opinion, I really look for this market to go sideways. You know attend the $15 doesn't mean there's not opportunity but I'm looking for a sideways move here may back off a bit. And what's going to be interesting is oh my gosh tomorrow's Friday. Because Fridays tell us so much. Do sellers drop this market down tomorrow. They're willing to go home short. Is this selling from buyers who bought it that's just taking profit. That means you go right back up. Are people willing to go home short if this is what Friday looks like are people willing to go home short over the weekend on crude oil that could be explosive to the upside. And talk about explosive look at our friend over here net gas. This is a market I've been very bullish on. Down here is a previous buy level there is that shadow right there knocked out that position that was $1300 a contract. So today, that traded below that. So we went five to 508. That's $800 is that dollar value. But what a nice move. I am still bullish on this market. The situation for this is serious, and it hasn't been solved. I think we have more room to the upside. I don't have a problem reevaluating and looking at. Here's what I want to point out. Sorry. That traded below the red line. Right. Yeah, I should. Well, it traded below the red line, which means. Can I. Oh, I can. Let me do this. I just want to verify something here. Where's my. Let me move this over a little. There we go. So the low there was 506. Yeah, that did that. 508 was the bearish level. Okay, what I want to point out to if we were a seller here, it failed. Right. Look what this thing did. It's important to have risk. Anytime you have exposure risk there. So there should have been, and there is actually a sell stop up here. I mean a buy stop to take out that short position. You always want something, but these are entry levels that you're looking at. And it's so critical that always manage risk no matter what you do. So if that would have been a self you and I were sitting next to each other, and that sold off immediately. We would have predetermined how much risk we would take in this trade in an order would have went in there. And we would have been stopped out and we would have been stopped out with the loss. And we would have exposure that risk management is just so critical. Let's look at the last category we talked about and that's the grains. Here's our friend over here to the left beans. And here's a previous buy level there's right here a traded below that that was a sell level. That was $2,400 a contract. And right now today. Oh, look at that we're right down at the cell level there that may have traded actually below that. Let's go back over here. Let's let's see what happened there. Let's go to beans. Let me get rid of this. There we go. Yeah, there we go. The low was 1697 and a half. And that is, by half a cent to ticks. 98 was the cell level. So it's an equal and opposite cash I'm looking for a down day in this market. And 16 on 1690 would be the next objective, or the dollar value here. 98, and 76. So that's 22, that's a thousand 200 is the dollar value there. Again doesn't mean anything, but just to give you an idea, over here in corn. We got to talk more about this though, because you know something, you and I were talking about sunflower oil, sunflower oil 75% comes from Russia and Ukraine. Huh. Now, let's go back. Well, tell you what, let me just show you these two of them. We got to come back to this corn, the dollar value there and that pre that was going to buy level and here it got stopped out. And it didn't work to the downside by the way. I'm going to point that out. That was 2,400. And right now it's struggling. You know when you see this kind of shadows on the top, and you see the shadows on the bottom on the floor you would say they're selling the rallies or they're buying the brakes. And you oftentimes see that when a market is going through a hedging period, a lot of those selling is those shadows on top represent from my point of view, hedging coming in same thing over here in corn. It's a market waiting to figure out what to do. Remember, Ukraine is a big exporter of corn to the EU. Who's going to plant it. Holy Toledo. Over here in wheat. This was a previous buy level. I want to show you something here that those little lines you see there means it went up limit. This doesn't happen all the time in markets, but it is a possibility. And it's something you and I want to be aware of. What happened here in wheat, they have a price limit it can only move so far up or so far down before they put the brakes on. And if you ever are in a position where you're caught against a price limit. Typically what you could do, or you could consider is a synthetic option position to offset that. If I were to go short and this is moving up against me, I would put on a synthetic put position, or in this case a synthetic long position to take advantage of a move to the upside. But, oh, the dollar value here is when I started to tell you. Oh, 10,400 is the dollar value there. And you can see in this buy level look at all these shadows up there they're selling. And now can we get a move lower. I'm not super bearish on this market sideways moves fine as it tries to assess what to do. But here's what I want to show you. Now, going back to beans and bean oil, bean oil is another cooking, you know bean oil is used not only for cooking, but in mayonnaise and food products and cosmetics, bean oil is used. And if we're seeing upward pressure, because so sunflower oil is not going to be available, then let's take a look at what that would look like now. Over here, whoops, over here, we got beans that's what you're just looking at see all those shadows. So interesting. And same thing here. This is meal so even meal, you know above wouldn't we know above 485 sold below 475 they bought it. That's what we're seeing and we could easily stay that way for a while. Now here's oil. Look at that. And, you know, at CME. It's probably not something you're going to be trading but there's also crude palm oil contract. And this is a big deal in Asia. If you look at Kuala Lumpur and other areas. It's also an oil that's looked at, but look at the movement that we're seeing here. And it goes back, I think to that sunflower oil. So it's something to watch. Keep an eyeball on that because it may be interesting. The time goes on here, especially as we get into the spring, latter part of the spring, when the sun flower seeds should have been planted, and corn should have been planted. Gosh, what an amazing time. Crazy times on Patrick. Oh my gosh, Patrick, I've kept this way over here. I didn't realize those. I just looked at my clock. I certainly are in crazy times down, but this has been really insightful. And in terms of syncing up, you know, how these geopolitical risks feed directly into market activity and market dynamics. So that's the question here, which is pretty interesting specifically now while we're talking about these softs referring to the countries of sorry referring to the subject of most countries dependence on basic food commodities from Ukraine and Russia. Why is this point not taken with closer look at diversification and distributing production to countries to avoid falling into this trap again. So it's not to affect the vision of SDGs and the goals for the world in the future. That's pretty brilliant. It's brilliant. Whoever sent that in, thank you for your comments. You're absolutely correct. You know, who you dance with is important. And if when we look at dependence, you know, what are the alternatives. If you look at Ukraine and, you know, a lot of countries do business with them because there hasn't been a problem. But if you look at what's across the border and we saw what happened in 2014, that may have been a signal to do what you're suggesting back in 2014 to think about what could happen. And prior to that, you know, when when Russia said to Ukraine, hey, you know something you owe us money, and we're going to shut that pipeline off. They could do that. And now the Nord Stream two is not been accepted, which is good. Norm Stream one. If you look at the amount of net gas that flows to Europe, one pipeline alone is not enough. If we look at longer term, you know, when I think about what you just said, which is so important, China and Russia, you know, they had shaken hands on a new pipeline for, you know, petroleum products flowing to China. So they're planning ahead. I agree with you. Oh, sorry, I was just going to say what you're talking about China. And I was thinking about what you're talking about with respect to war and obviously, you know, historically and for now at least it's still a dollar based commodity but we did hear the past week. The noise is out of Saudi Arabia about looking to to deal in crude oil with China price didn't you want one? Yes, you're correct. Saudi Arabia has done that in the past. They did it with Japan they've done it with India. They've looked at other currencies. You know it's a relationship they want to maintain and they're trying to be accommodative. And so many countries want to get away from the US dollar because look at all these sanctions that Europe and the United States and other countries are imposing on Russia. If they didn't have US dollar assets, if they didn't have a part of our financial system that allows money to flow around the globe, it makes things difficult. I've heard the same thing. And I wouldn't be surprised if that happens that they do do that. But the thing about that too, is if you're Saudi Arabia. Now they do have some room as I understand on production to increase production, but not at 13 million. The United States could produce 13 million. If we didn't have the pandemic, we'd probably be above that. Saudi Arabia has to do some investments structurally to be able to do that. And just as a side note, you know, a typical barrel to get it out of the ground in Saudi Arabia. It's about $2. So at the current levels for crude oil, it's productive for them. You know, they wanted crude oil about $80 a barrel to balance their budget. So did some other countries want crude oil in that price range. So, but I'm not surprised that if that does happen that they do that. Yes. I mean, with that, and then the other thing that I've been thinking about quite recently and specifically as we're, you know, coming into this type of geopolitical crisis and something I thought to mention to you before we came on was this shift towards potentially, you know, central banks dealing with digital currency. Right, right. They've been evaluating it for a while and now there's more and more discussion about that. Could that be another system to use, but we still have the challenges of unsavory people using it. Yeah, we have the inability to control it. So central banks said, okay, yeah, like the Fed here said, we're evaluating it. And Biden said, okay, I'm signing a document dog, gonna look at it. Okay. And they're in the process of doing that. But there are some big challenges. And it's still a small market. When you look at even those billions of dollars, it's small compared to the FX marketplace. And I mean, if you if you look at Venezuela, Venezuela created a cryptocurrency. And Trump was still present. What did he say, nobody can buy that currency. So you might create it doesn't mean anybody's going to use it. And if you look at, you know, other countries that have experimented with that there are challenges with it will the rest of the world accept a cryptocurrency. My question would be then, if the country goes to crypto. Then what happens. If they're hacked. Yeah, does half the value of the country disappear. Well, I mean, and this is that's a really good point, because the Biden, a few of these world leaders just in the past week of reference the idea of a potential cyber attack from Russia. So imagine if they take out one of these blockchains. Good point Patrick good point. Yes. Yes. And even if today we have a fail safe system on a crypto. It's a matter of time before somebody's going to find a backdoor or something to get in. May not happen tomorrow, but at some point you're still at that risk. And it is, are there a place for blockchain. Oh, absolutely. I mean it for recording information it's terrific. The real estate transactions I think it was in United Arab, or maybe Bahrain. There are real estate transactions on blockchain. If you look at crude oil, global shipments, we're talking about crude oil, crude oil shipments are done by paper. And that ship that leaves the Middle East going to China, it's traded as we know many times before it gets there even. Blockchain could be a great way for everyone to have that visibility of what's going on who's got it where they have it that kind of thing. So I think there's a place for that technology. I'm not against crypto, by any means, I just think there are challenges yet that haven't been, haven't been met. That's why if you want exposure. Personally, I wouldn't trade the cash side of that the underlying crypto currency, I want it regulated. It's, you know, I mean we have tick mill behind us and the exchange and that that's a whole different animal than nobody to call. I mean the funny thing about Bitcoin as well I guess compared to the coins or tokens or whatever have followed is no one still clearly understands where Bitcoin originated from. Yeah, isn't that interesting. You're right. You know he who knows is that a made up name not a made up name is the guy out there. Clever idea. And I know a fellow who you know when you, if you're in the cash side of this of crypto or Bitcoin, you get two addresses. One is private and one is public and that's the number that's used to transfer Bitcoin from my account to your account. Yeah. And if you forget your private one you got a problem. I know a fellow bond trader in Denver actually, and he is a yield curve trader. Anyways, I talked to him. Bitcoin was around 30,000 I don't remember. And I, in Chuck said to me, Hey, Dan, you won't believe this. He said a few years ago I bought some Bitcoin for seven cents. I bought, I think he said 1000 and something I don't remember. I said, Hey, would you do it that stuff that you know it's up here you're gonna get rid of it you're gonna buy more what are you doing. He said, Well, I got rid of that computer. Exactly. I said what you see I got rid of it and I never, I never expected it to do anything I was just playing with it. So, anyways, there are some challenges with that. Yeah, it's, it's going to be interesting to see how that whole digital currency space evolves, especially in this, this type of climate. I'm looking to see, do we have another question here do you summarize blockchain currencies can be hacked maybe one or two nodes, but the way it works. You have to have 60%. I think we just talked about that or you preempted that down with the, the idea about hacking. It wouldn't be easy. And when you have the blockchain that does provide some structure. It's, but I'd never say never. True, true. In all aspects. Yeah, that's right in all aspects. Yeah, crude all can't get to 150. Interestingly, I just, I thought about this when you're talking about cruise and I wanted to personally wanted to get your view on it. And I was, I was reading a note the other day that if we think, you know, back in 2008 or, you know, many, many recessionary cycles have been triggered by obviously a commodity price shock. And obviously back in 2008, it was that threat, you know, that move we saw in crude oil. But I was reading that about the concept that really the market or markets now could probably stand crude oil above $200 about that to get to get to that shocks that to get to a genuine shock state now. That you would, you know, you'd have to be start to to think about crews in that, you know, above $200 barrel. And I was interested to get your, your view on that. Well, our market's going to absorb whatever price it goes to. But when I think about the ramifications of it going there, you know, got up to $145 a barrel back in 2008, when you're talking about that. And what was interesting about that was that moving higher because of a shortage of crude oil. No. It was moving higher because commodity prices were going nuts. So stock markets going down and again money goes someplace. And we saw commodity gold, we saw other commodities just taking off to the moon, crude oil being one of them. And it was moving higher on the expectation of continuation of speculation in the energy market and crude oil market. Here, if we're above 200, I go back to what is it that's driving it. Is it the perception that we can't handle this Russia situation and supplies are so tight that prices are up there. It's different. If we have crude oil 200. Because we have 2008 again the perception is that it could go much higher, not because we don't have enough, just because so much money's flowing towards it. I can tell you from a personal point of view, I, I try to break down the fundamentals to two categories. Between perception and reality. And the perception market. It is the possibility of something that may happen in the future. Oh, like you and I were talking about, let's do this, we were talking about these grains. But there's wheat harvested, not in our system, because we can't, it's not transported wheat that could be in corn that could be planted, not being right now doesn't look like it's going to be planted. Not a part of our global system. So there we could have a true tight market in 2007 2008 wheat shot up. But we also had fundamental drivers behind it. We had droughts. Yeah, Ukraine, Russia, Canada, our friends in Australia. I had drought conditions in the United States. Yeah, and that's right and and that's the issue we're facing even now. We have drought conditions potential in the United States and other wheat growing areas, we may have a shortage of fertilizer. That means people may restrict what they're going to plant. There's some, but anyway, so if we see, let's say we see, let's do soybeans. I just happened to look at that chart. Let's say in August. And I'm talking about the Midwest part of the United States, where we grow a lot of soybeans. Illinois, Iowa grows more soybeans than any other state. Illinois Southern Illinois is one of the highest production when it comes to soybeans and actually corn too. Anyways, let's say in July. The National Weather Bureau says, we're going to have drought conditions in August. So soybeans screen to the upside on that news. Now, have we have we planted them have? Yes, we planted them by July, but have we harvested them? No. Is it up because we don't have enough? We don't know, we haven't harvest them. Now, August is critical for soybeans in the United States because it can grow like a weed up to that point, but it needs subsoil moisture, which determines the number of flowers and determines the size and number of beans. So it determines our yield. If August comes, and we get all the rain we need for ideal conditions, do we expect soybean prices to stay up here? No, we expect them to drop back down because what they moved up for isn't happening. So that's a market moving on perception. I want to type stop. Yeah, because I could easily come down, right? As opposed to, we don't have enough. We didn't have enough wheat. If we don't have enough soybeans to meet global demand, that trend could be fairly strong. Yeah. And I want to give it more room in terms of stop. Yeah, so it's kind of like thinking about a momentum trade and more of a grind, you know, a grind scenario. Right, right, Patrick. Yeah, it's a good way to look at it. It's funny you were talking about, I remember watching YouTube videos of, is it, there's a report that comes out, isn't there? USDA report. Yeah. And I remember watching of the pits in Chicago on the day the report would hit. And the trade is fairly frantic. It's instant. It's instant. And I knew some guy. I taught a lot of classes at the CME and at the board of trade. And New York exchanges and other exchanges and that there was one guy down there. His name was Bob. Big, really a big guy. He was in the bean pit. And he's somebody that would be responding to customer orders that would be coming in based on that report. And we did a great job because he was so much bigger than everybody else. And if he's yelling, everybody knows he's yelling. I mean, in the Euro dollar pit at the CME, they would hire clerks by their height. So you could see you have a good sight line site to that person's hands. And they had restrictions on, you know, you couldn't increase your shoe size height by more than two inches. It was a very physical environment, wasn't it? Oh, very. You got elbows on your side. You got people spitting on you, hopefully by accident. And you got people, I remember this one guy. This one guy, he had a yellow jacket in front of him and he would always draw on this guy's back, like little fig. And he was good. He was a good artist. He'd draw a little, but you know, somebody gets a cold, you're going to probably get a cold. Yeah, I said 50, you said 15. I thought you said set and you said December I, you know, but those outtrades and when they want electronic handhelds basically went away. And now that they're electronic, you know, it's not an issue. You know, a platform like tick mill makes it so easy and comfortable, I think for someone to trade on that. You don't have to worry about those, but that used to be problems back then. You know, if you have one more second, I was just thinking about something about Bob. I was really ready to teach a course at the board of trade. This is before board trade and see me became together. And I was setting my computer up and Bob came in and we're just chatting and so how's it going Bob me goes terrible. I got a serious problem. I'm not sure what to do. I said geez, well what's going on now Bob. This big guy his knees were killing him. And so he wanted to get off the floor he wanted to day trade get off the floor. He's been experimenting with that. He's a market maker in the pit. He's excellent at what he does. That's not an issue, but today trade. Now for him to do that at that time, Eddie, his clerk had to bring a chart into the pit. And he would look at that chart they okay Eddie do this. And it wasn't in his market to be other markets but anyways, Eddie would come in and keep bringing him chart. And if you think about that today, you know, he's talked about exposure. Anyways, he's not the chart tell him what to do. Here's what he said to me, I think all of this can relate to this. He said, I had a series of losing trades. I said yeah, I know that can happen he goes yeah but I, I just wanted a little profit. So, I, I get a tick, I immediately take it. I said yeah I understand he said I just psychologically I just wanted to have something a profit. I get that understand. He said my problem is. I can't stop. Oh, that's serious. Yeah, because he's risking this much. Yeah, on that trade he's making that much right. And as you and I know Patrick, a series of big losses, take a lot of profitable trades to pay for it. And he can dig a hole he can't dig out. So here's what I asked him to do. I said, Bob, I'd like you to look at your past trades that you said were good trades profitable trades that you would say that was a good trade. Whatever it is, technique doesn't matter, just whatever, you know, and look at how long that trade lasted. So, about three weeks later, actually I'm down there for another class. One of you had already taken, but anyways he shows up. And he says 45 minutes. And I said 45 minutes. And he says that's a typical length of a trade that I think is a good trade 45 minutes to an hour actually. I said okay, here's what I'd like you to do. Tell Eddie. Well first find a trade that screams that you please buy me meets all of your criteria, whatever that is. I said, so be patient. In that trade. That's exactly the setup for what you would say is a clean trade. Put your order in the enter and put in risk and put in profit. Because he has an idea about his typical profit because he's done all this research. And I said, tell Eddie not to come back in for 45 minutes. You don't need to look at this trade. And I have to tell you, he, he, he did outstanding. He lives on a little lake in La Porta, Indiana, about two hours away from Chicago. He got the force. Good within months, actually. And he trades from home on this lake and Indiana, I don't know if he still is this a long time ago. But, but I always think about that when I think about Bob, because it wasn't his technique. It wasn't the market. It was him. He just kept getting in the way of what was really a good trading strategy. You know, Patrick, that's easy to do. I mean, it is but the, I mean, the, the, it's quite, it's quite a common problem, especially people just starting out is the idea. And it gets, it gets promoted, I think quite a bit now. You know, social media, it's actually, you know, this, this idea of scalping and taking small little profits and you know, I can't remember who it was. I think it was one of the market wizards or whatever. You know, the idea that you can actually go broke taking small profits. Because, you know, those small profits, whilst, whilst they feed your ego and your short term P&L to to maintain that type of dynamic means that you know your risk gets so skewed that it's one loss can take you. Yeah, or you're constantly getting stopped out. Yeah, yeah. It's, it's, it's, it's kind of like a fallacy that I, well, I think anyway, that's that's promoted. Well, you know, that concept, I think comes from a market maker mentality, which is what a floor trader would do. And traders really a misnomer on the floor, you're a market maker. Yeah, yeah. So any two sided market you have market makers, as you know. So it's to make a ticker scratch. But you're right there in the market, you're not competing, well, at this time you were not competing with computers. You could that was a good business model and it still is for market makers. It just for a private trader to try to now make a tick or scratch, forget about it. It's, you need a, it's a computer against computer to do that. The companies I deal with here in Chicago, market making firms on options. They have one firm had 200 traders, and they had 200 technology people, technology person for every trader. But that's all being driven by, you know, computers, the trader there would monitor it. And 85% of the time as a successful market maker, you can make an edge. But there's a lot of risk. It's not an easy business. It's something for a very select group. But that does that. You're right. It's, it's lethal for someone on a private basis. Yeah. Well, Dan, look, we've been running here for just under two hours now. Time flies when you're having fun. I hope this isn't causing a problem. I must say Dan, the feedback has been exceptionally positive. That's nice. Really taken a lot of information away from this evening and Great. Well, you know, Patrick, I do want to thank everyone. If you're still with us for sharing your part of your day with us today and I hope you got a few ideas to think about. And I do want to wish you the very best and much success in your trading and you know, Patrick, I want to thank you, Tick Mill and CME for making today possible. You know, I appreciate your guidance as we went through all this today. You made it very easy for me. So thank you. Thank you, Dan. It's been, it's been really, really useful. And I'm sure we will, we will schedule more to come in the coming months. Great. Look forward to it. Okay. Good night, everyone. I hope you've found this session useful. And as I've said in the chat, we will, we will get a recording out to everyone that has attended. We will inform you as to the next time Dan and I are going to get together and learn more from, from a real market legend. Thank you very much, everyone. Good night.