 Welcome to Tipmill Weekly Market Outlook for week commencing June 14th with me Patrick Mullerley. The highlights of the week ahead will undoubtedly be Wednesday's FOMC meeting. Financial markets go into the meeting with a conviction call that the Fed and ECB liquidity is firmly in place for the summer and that the only game in town is to search for carrier midst declining levels of volatility. While the Fed may be a little nearer to discussing tapering, I don't expect the statement or new projections or Chair Powell's press conference to unsettle markets. After all, markets seem quite comfortable with the view that the Fed tapering could start in December this year with the first rate hike in early 2023. Assuming nothing too hawkish emerges, expect traded volatility levels to take another leg lower As the carry trade rolls on, US Jason next week, be it retail, sales or industrial production looks unlikely to move markets and instead the carry environment could increase focus on yield opportunities in emerging markets. Russia hiked 50 basis points on Friday and may well do another 50 basis points in July. Brazil should hike 75 basis points this week and both Russia and Turkey are in focus ahead of President Biden's meeting with Turkish and Russian presidents in the week ahead. From a technical perspective, as the dollar holds, the 90 level of support is a chance now to make a move up into the 9150. From there, I'd be watching for bearish reversal patterns at short positions, targeting the next leg to the downside, an issue looking at 8870. In terms of the Eurozone, Friday saw the Euro offered across the board as the market digested the implications of the ECB meeting. For example, is the US dollar or the Euro the best funding currency for this summer? The opinion by most market watchers is that the US dollar should marginally lose out and we will see low volatility rally in the Euro this summer, perhaps even up to the 125. The calendar in the week ahead looks very light and perhaps there will be more of a focus on the US EU summit and some word on the global tax deal. Should the FOMC not a nerve market, I would be looking for the Euro dollar to pull back here but then extend up into the late summer. So from a technical perspective, what we're looking at is the outside reversal candle up Friday. Should see prices now touchdown to test the prior descending trendline resistance now to act as support at the 120 and certainly we have monthly range support at 119.73 and the major ascending trendline support can be at 119.50. So this time, watch for bullish reversal patterns set long positions, targeting move up through the 123.55 price cycle highs onto monthly range resistance at 123.70. In terms of Japan, Japan is seen to have performed poorly with its handling of the virus. Nine perfectures are still in lockdown and only 11% of Japan's population have had the first vaccine doses compared to about 50% levels in the US and the UK. Yet lockdowns are working, case numbers are falling and reopening of the economy could be constructive story for Japan later this summer. This is the backdrop for Friday's BOJ meeting. Expect the BOJ to still sound reasonably upbeat, although none of its key policy levers set to be adjusted for quite a while. The data coming this week, trade data for May and also national CPI expected at 0.2% year-on-year. From a technical perspective, while the dollar yen now holds below the 109.70, still see the chance for a three-way corrective pattern to develop to test the 108.40 level of support before making a move higher. If we can take out the 110 level on a closing basis then look for a move up into monthly range resistance at 111. In terms of sterling in the UK, the risk environment to remain supported next week and the cautious Fed are likely to reverse the current US dollar softening. Domestically, while it looks more and more likely that the June 21 restriction easing date will postpone, the impact on the economy should be very limited. If anything, in terms of the near-term downside risk to sterling, the focus should remain on the UK-EU trade tensions. The risk around the implementation of the Northern Ireland protocol is possible breach from the UK and the subsequent EU tariffs. That could lean on sterling. On the data front, busy week for the UK, the May CPI will be released on Wednesday, expected to rise 1.8% year-on-year and moving above 2% later this year. With inflation to normalise lower in 2022, the case for imminent tightening is really not in place. The UK April employment date will be released on Tuesday, should improve further reflecting the reopening of the economy, while May retail sales released on Friday should increase further as well. From a technical perspective, sterling pulled back on the close on Friday, we're still just holding the monthly pivot 1.4080. Whilst we hold that as support, there is the potential for another leg higher here to test 1.43. However, if we get a close through the monthly pivot and the ascending trend line support there at 1.4050, I'll then look for a pullback to test the monthly range support 1.3836 before the next leg higher. And last but not least, in Australia Thursday's job data for the month of May in Australia will be the last key release before the 9th July Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, when changes to the shape and possibly the size of the QE will be unveiled. Look for a rather strong headline print with respect to the unemployment rate dropping from 5.5% to 5.4% and this should be a welcome development by those expecting a less dovish RBA as it brightens the inflation outlook for the second quarter after the underwhelming first quarter reads. In the week ahead we also see the minutes from June's RBA meeting. Any anticipation about where the discussion about tweaking QE in July is heading will move the market, although I expect we won't see much on that topic. The RBA Governor Philip Lowe will also deliver a speech on Thursday, although he scheduled to speak before the release of the jobs report, so there may not be any relevant policy comments. From a technical perspective the Aussie dollar continues to find resistance here at the 7770 area of the monthly pivot and whilst we hold that as resistance, I'm looking for a move down to test the monthly range support 7570 area before we can look for bullish reversal long positions looking for another leg to the upside. And that concludes the weekly market outlook for a week commencing the 14th of June.