 The following is a presentation of TFNN the morning market kickoff With your host Tommy O'Brien Good morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien coming alive from TFN and Wednesday morning just after 9 a.m. Eastern time We got markets in positive territory to kick things off You got the SMP right now trading up 18 points at 41 40 NASDAQ 100 up by 36 points Boy NASDAQ the leader yesterday, right up by 36 today about a quarter percent the positive 13,000 519 the Dow up half a percent right now 33,000 to 16 and you get the Russell up by a solid seven tenths percent right now Bitcoin back in off a bit off about $250 at 26,000 710 crude up to 71 68 We even get a pop in the last few minutes. We'll be talking our man Teddy cakes that we'll talk some forex at 40 past the hour as we do every Wednesday We'll talk some crude as well. So stay tuned for that interview coming up later in the program Go contract quite a slide from where we were about a week ago. Check it out, right? We could go gold at 2050 this morning. We hit 1985 man We'll jump over to the dollar index in a moment the 10-year pretty flat action from where we were last night The 10 years positive by four ticks the 30 years positive by 14 ticks I mentioned the dollar index should jump over to the dollar index That's gonna cause some angst for gold as expected, right? Back up the dollar index were up almost two full points last Wednesday as I said gold was trading at what? 2050 the dollar index was approaching 101. We were just above 103. We're at 102 83 right now in the dollar index We got a lot in focus. We have some target earnings out this morning target up a bit a little bit of volatility in both directions But decent numbers and they're gonna be up by about a dollar that follows home Depot numbers yesterday Pretty tough numbers from Home Depot talked about it yesterday, right? They talked about their fiscal year sales Instead of being flat, which is what they thought they were gonna be two to five in February They're now gonna be down two to five percent That's a stark change over the period of three months to say our total Fiscal year sales may decline by up to five percent when just three months ago They said that they were gonna be flat and think about the facts folks that that isn't an inflationary environment Where most of the time you don't have to sell as many goods to reach the same level of sales So they're gonna have actual fiscal year sales down five percent in an environment where everything is costing Ten to twenty percent more than it cost just a few years ago So that's been helping some of those numbers so some of those companies at least on the top line base is helping right? Getting it to the bottom line for margins a little bit of a different story But nonetheless we get target this morning there up a bit We got Walmart with their numbers tomorrow catching a little bit of the tailwind of target up by a couple bucks this morning And we shift to debt so you have speaker McCarthy saying he thinks the US won't default as debt talks inch forward A lot of headlines out there. I think at the end of the day We do not have a debt defaults and I guess that could be somewhat optimistic to see yeah And that's just coming out this morning that he said On CNBC squawk box market liken that news. Okay, they do not want to default. We got the market up to 41 40 Talking about it yesterday, man I keep you eye on this trend line we're inching towards that trend line I put it about 41 43 only a few points higher in the S&P from where we're at right now That's on the futures you jump over to the spy Same exact line man, and we got just within pennies of that price level you're talking about just above 412 And where we've been and boy since last Wednesday, right? How many times we touched that line even yesterday? Right on the open got up to that line traded lower Maybe we'll touch that on the opening end this morning nonetheless. You're up by 17 points and we jump over to target shares That was from last night. Excuse me. Okay, we'll pull up target in a moment. We talked about speaking McCarthy Yeah, Elon last night was making news man. Well, not really a story that he's making news He's always out there, but I did find it interesting. He's talking about the morality I'm not sure they cover it here. He's talking about the morality of working from home This guy's you know, he is brilliant man. He's changing the world But boy, let me see if I can find the headlight I'll talk about it later Because I'll pull up the headline Because having the richest person in the world talk about employees having freedom to work from home if they can do their job being Not morally in the right. I found that a little hard to swallow to put it lightly man And we'll talk about that a little bit late in the program Let's talk a little bit of fundamental news and housing starts out at 8 30 this morning those home builders man Housing starts rise in a sign home construction is stabilizing beginning construction rose 2.2 percent in April the 1.4 million rate The West region is a big deal. It's on your floor. It is probably up there too, man Single-family home building increased 1.6 percent to the highest level this year yeah Entirely due to a jump in the West starts of apartment buildings and other multi-family projects also rose Applications to build a proxy for future construction actually down 1.5 percent still an annualized rate of 1.42 million units and You have a that's probably a seven-month high permits for one family dwellings However, increased to a seven-month high I assume while elevated mortgage rates and affordability concerns remain headwinds for housing a lack of inventories could support building activity Over time and it is pretty remarkable as we get a pop on this market That you look at That's not what I want. What is this equity? I just pulled up Dear I was going for DR Horton DRH. I put in DHR. What is what is What is DHR man? Dana her Look at that equity That's that's quite a 10-day chart Let's back this up Boy, look at that thing right Dana her you talk about a downtrend channel man. We get a little sidetracked here Manufacturers markets professional medical industrial and commercial products and services Biotech bioprocessing boy. I'd be careful if you're looking at that equity man That is a well-defined channel line. We jump around we stumble upon it We're looking at housing. We're gonna go back to DR Horton in a moment But this is Dana her and if you're in this one folks Oh to our man bud Ralph's the channel master Pretty well-defined there over the period of approaching. I mean you could even say what going back to a really August of 2021 be careful that one if you're in it. Okay back to the house during DR Horton is no What am I doing? DH would Dhi, there we go. We got there. Okay, DR Horton. Yeah, that's quite a chart, right and We're pushing highs above where we were in 2021 and pay attention man, okay not a lot of people would have said when you started hiking in March of last year and DH Horton was at $78 that the Fed would still be hiking and you'd be at 111 with mortgage rates at 7% potentially But no one's selling their house man. Now Lenar pretty similar chart, right from 117 down to 70 bucks We were at a price point of about 82 when the Fed started Hoke it hike in we're basically back at all time Is that all time might not be because there's some craziness that if you go back in some of these equities, so Lenar Yeah, well above look at both of them well above where you were in 2004 And it's a real deal man Okay There's like an X factor in housing that nobody is going to be selling their house that has a mortgage under 4% Until things get even remotely close to 4% so how that plays into things It's gonna hurt supply and if you know economics folks, okay? You have a very low supply. What's that gonna do? That's gonna push the point where the demand curve meets the supply curve at a higher price point and it seems like it's persisting and For the home builders out there kind of a dream scenario, right people in the people who have homes aren't gonna sell to compete Pretty remarkable S&P's climbing higher. We get the S&P's at 41 41 stay tuned folks coming back with our man Kevin Hinks from TD Network we're right back If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market then rocket equities and options report is a newsletter You should try Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and Technicals sign up for rocket equities and options report today with a 30-day money back guarantee So you have nothing to risk for all the details and to start your subscription today Visit the front page of TFNN.com TFNN educating investors Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market To stay on top of stock patterns You can take advantage of sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com when you subscribe you'll get a weekly report from better-in-day trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks You need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis after all He's got 45 years experience as a day trader Larry will also provide daily charts videos and data on the key markets That he's tracking expect notifications from Larry on market movement You need to act on at any time first-time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee If you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today TFNN.com educating investors Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago and the student has now become the master Steve won the prestigious Timer of the Year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019 finishing at number two for the year an Amazing accomplishment Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his Mastering Probability newsletter Steve's award-winning newsletter Mastering probability is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon sign up for Steve's market newsletter Mastering probability and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars Absolutely free at TFNN all our newsletters come with a 30-day money back guarantee So you have absolutely nothing to worry about visit TFNN.com and try mastering probability 30 days risk-free today TFNN educating investors TFNN has launched the Tiger's Den hosted at Discord TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours The Tiger's Den available to all Tigers and Tigris's for just one dollar for the year There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders sign up today and become a part of this Educational community of traders just visit the front page of TFNN.com Welcome back folks. We get S&P futures in the positive by about 18 points That's about four tenths percent in the green right now Nasdaq 100 positive by about two cents And you got the Dow up about half a percent right now up 163 points Let's jump over to our man Kevin Hinks every trading day folks 12 noon eastern time the TV Ameritrade network right here on Tiger TV with fast Market your host Kevin Hinks Tom White the outstanding team they have they had Randy Frederick on there yesterday watching him breaking down some action Kevin Hinks we got some debt headlines this morning. We got some target earnings out there this morning We got some housing starts. Where do you want to kick things off? Good morning, man Good morning. Come here, Brian. Yeah, there's a lot going on this morning a little pause in Fed speakers today as we've had a lot of them Up until now, uh, but target earnings Fair, you know, it's interesting They they beat on earnings per share Even you know on expectations the actual earnings were down 6.2 percent year over year revenues were actually up 0.6 But you know, they were very cautious about going forward I think the stock was down when the earnings came out. Tommy. I was you're Watching very closely when the earnings came out And then they talked about the margins now back up over five percent I think it was 5.2 or 5.3 percent their margins are That's a long way from 3.6, which is where they were when they were Experiencing those discretionary inventory problems. So I think they're making really good progress But how about county? How about brian cornell their ceo talking about 500 million dollars? Incept an organized retail crime. That is amazing when you think of those numbers That's affecting their earnings per share overall fact, but pretty interesting look like I said Beat on earnings beat on revenue very conservative guidance But I think some people are liking the fact that the stock is or the the you know, the company is Getting the margins back up to a reasonable level. Tommy. I think that that will eventually start to show up an earnings per share Yeah, I get the chart up here in the thinkorswim platform, man And boy, they had quite a drop off when those numbers were coming to and the margins what you were talking about there And yeah, 500 million man Quite a number when it becomes material And uh, boy, that's it better be material when you're talking about half a billion dollars, right Pretty interesting action. Uh, did you see housing starts this morning? Kevin just thinking a little big picture I was pulling up lanar early in the program And uh dr horton absolutely resilient charts. They're pushing highs. We got housing starts at pretty lofty levels Thinking a little big picture here, you know, we're not talking delta We're not talking theta, but it is kind of interesting big picture kevin how we got mortgage rates where they are, right? People don't want to sell their house. They don't need to what do you think about some of these home builders, man? When the housing starts pretty resilient and you can't deny some of those charts man lanar dr horton What do you think about that? Because man, it seems like nobody's going to sell their house Why would you unless interest rates come anywhere near back to four percent or something like that? Which is what they'd be given up if they sell their house I think any conversation on Housing has to start with the fact that The funny intro crisis in 2008 and nine. We are about five million homes Below where we need to be And so therefore yeah housing is going to struggle when interest rates are spiking higher and moving aggressively But tommy, I think the very minute you saw interest rates start to plateau and calm down I think there's a queue that forms in housing and they're all Rushing back in and housing is still very strong mortgage ups were down this week because the 30 year fix went up From six four eight to six five seven but last week, you know refines were up 10 percent purchases were up almost four point Up almost five percent. So a little bit of softness there with rates going higher tommy, but housing is still strong I mean, there's still a Need for housing and I think we're still short on overall houses tommy. So yeah, I think these builders have backlogs I think they have built in business And I think they're doing extremely well with very low valuations by the way Yeah, it's pretty cool man checking out those charts and the thinkorswim platform just so strong Um those builders and really remarkable. I was saying if you said You know back it up to last march kevin, right? You say the feds are going to start hiking They're not going to stop until the middle of next year Where the home builders going to be when mortgage rates are pushing seven percent say they're going to be higher man But that's the world we're in man With that in mind as you mentioned a little light on the fed speak We still got the debt crisis looming out there with mccarthy making some comments this morning We got uh, at least one company comes to mind with earnings tomorrow. What are you guys talking about on fast market coming up at 12 today kevin as you would think tommy Like pullers are going to do a presentation on walmart. We're going to trade walmart actually again We traded it last week as well when some of the retail earnings start to come out Well, let's go look at cisco that has earnings coming up and then take two interactive Uh a video game company. So three good names today with the With the focus being on walmart earnings today tommy And if you can kevin because I was watching the program yesterday and you guys did a great job You were talking about target and for those that didn't check it out um Could you speak a little bit about what you guys were talking about on target because it was just a great conversation? I thought and landon swan was on there. He's talking about you know, no matter What's happening and it kind of points to maybe if you can tie walmart into it No matter what these companies are doing man target. I love going to target man I go to target with tommy. We got a starbucks at the beginning of our journey. I put him in the cart I'm drinking my starbucks. He's walking around playing with toys. I mean quite quite a social Endeavor right that targets somehow made a social endeavor of me walking around their store But the point was that you guys were making no matter what they're doing right, man There is a headwind on this economy right now Is that something you're going to look for walmart as well kevin? I thought it was a great point as I was thinking about it because they're so big No matter what you're doing if you're doing things right right now if the economy's facing some tough heat These companies might be paying for that. You know weakened economy Yeah, one of the points we made Yesterday was target does so many things well in terms of how they figured out, you know digital and Delivery and next day when they bought ships in 2017 ahead of You know the the pandemic they were ready how they use their 2000 stores in terms of fulfillment You know, they don't use other buildings. So they're more efficient that way They have great partnerships that you just mentioned Starbucks they also have ulta they also have disney. They also have apple that that they're partners with So they've got a great Brand and product ready to go but tommy remember those discretionary inventories that they bet heavy on and lost Has hurt the price of the stock now You know, we want to see that you know inventories were down 16 percent ending inventories when they reported earnings That's a good sign for getting through that that should raise their margins But walmart it's almost hard tommy to compare walmart to target because walmart is so big and has so much You know So much value that that they can put out there and such big numbers and there's such a discount Retail that you can buy everything in so largest grocer in the world So yeah, it's going to be a similar conversation, but also very different tommy And it'd be interesting to see what they come out with in terms of how many of those high earners They're luring into their stores, right? They were talking about that last go around reading down. Yeah Oh, it makes sense man. I mean everything costs so much and target is not cheap. That's the one thing I'll say It's an enjoyable experience Which is what I'm speaking to which is probably why I found the conversation so interesting with you guys saying They do do a lot of things right man is an enjoyable experience Um, they got disney you mentioned man. We go through that toy section, right? So I I I felt that in a big way uh But guess what? I'm going to walmart too man because when I want to save some money I go to walmart when I want to have kind of a decent experience in a great store I go to target pretty interesting, but it lined up with what you guys were saying Kevin, I appreciate the time on a busy morning as always man We'll be watching fast market at 12 today and we'll talk to you tomorrow, man Have a great day tommy you too folks. Check it out. They're talking walmart. They're talking sisco They're talking take two. They're going to be doing three Hypothetical trades at 12 today on fast market. Don't miss the program folks I've learned so much myself from kevin over the years. Check it out today and we'll be right back for the market open folks. Stay tuned Building wealth trading in the stock market seems impossible to most people They think it's too volatile and risky Most people aren't going to take the time to educate themselves on how to do it, right? 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We've got markets open S&P's opened up about 20 points right now trading at 41 42 and I thought it was a great conversation folks I watch the program all the time fast market. I encourage you to check it out think or swim td ameritrade They are sponsors. I know they are folks I know I'm biased it comes with it, but I watch it all the time myself To learn from what they're talking about on that program. They do an outstanding job And yeah, I found it very interesting. I'm gonna pull up a picture of tommy in the cart Because it is interesting folks when You see How the social aspect Okay of things Combines into That they've literally sucked me into their store for a social happening Meanwhile, I'm walking around potentially spending money on my son now. You should see the real battle. Okay Is Trying to get out of there without a cart full of toys That's the real kicker, but I've gotten pretty good at it and what that consists of is basically filling up the cart Give me one second here And then emptying out that cart as we get to the the Cash register in the end now if you're looking to go short in this market, man We just hit this price level We bumped up against that boundary line yet again coming into the market at about four in the morning coming into the close last night We're solid two spy points 20 s and p points above that level And we're bumping up against that trend line and that trend lines been holding For a week to the upside. So we'll see where we go from there. Nonetheless. We're trading in 41 42 I wouldn't expect any miracles from the debt talks today, man. I don't know how that comes out In terms of I don't know what either side Is willing to give the other side to walk away a winner after they've both become pretty entrenched, right? That says it all so we'll see where we go from there We check out target with their numbers target shares basically flat at 156 60 right now walmart ahead of their numbers tomorrow 150 58 let me see if I can find that tell me picture. I emailed it to myself Uh during the break I'm going to pull it up because it's it's interesting folks. Yeah, check it out All right. Here we go. I got it. So you got to love this. Let's pull it up. Here he is. Here's the man Okay, so you got a lot going on here, right? Here's my man. Tommy O'Brien the fourth Uh, he's in his target cart targets. We're going to send this clip to target, man They're gonna have to send me some free gift cards so we can go in there all the time. Uh, he's in the cart There's my starbucks. Okay got my starbucks got him in the cart. He's got his thomas the train in there as well He's fired up. He's ready to go because he knows the red store is where he likes to go around for toys Okay, he knows they got dinosaurs there And you see the look on his smile and face. Look at those eyes, man. Come on. Could I be a little biased? Uh But you got to realize how that goes right so it's turned into a fun time for us to be around the store The disney section. He knows well. He loves mickey. He loves all those characters Uh, they got a bunch of good cool dinosaur toys as well. And yeah, so we fill them all up the whole time We walk around we'll grab some clothes. I'll grab a few things for myself But guess what when i'm not with tommy and when I got to fill up the household items when i'm talking about paper towels toilet paper, right? Uh groceries milk the whole deal Fruit even walmart has great fruit occasionally targets got some great produce as well But I go to walmart when I want to save and even better I go to sam's which I belong to as well when you want to save I don't do that stuff at target because they got some high prices, man But they've created an environment, uh, and you see him and his kick is he likes to pretend like he's drinking my coffee He says um delicious Yeah, so consumers are changing their price habits, man Uh and look at walmart dropping off from the open 152 to 149 69 is target dropping as well No, not quite the case interesting. So whatever they're seeing in those Target numbers man walmart was higher and they're giving it up just like that from walmart Let's see how some of the bank stocks are trading right now Apple shares down a bit It's been shopping around we jump over to microsoft shares Up about two tenths percent. We jump over to apple shares down about three years to google shares right now down about one tenth The whole ai deal is quite a trip, man. You solve this one. You're gonna solve a lot Because I was watching an interesting youtube conversation last night talking about, you know, what happens to reporters What happens to writers right boy? I would be very worried if I was a content writer in any degree Um, you look at the writer's guild in hollywood, right boy that one could stretch on because You're gonna see ai. I mean one of the One of the biggest complaints about ai, okay is that the accuracy of what they're predicting Feeding back would probably be the the accuracy of what they're doing And one of the things that have been so worrisome is when you have the ai chat bots just creating complete Fabrications of something to align with whatever they're telling you. Well, that's like perfect for story writing, man Okay, you're gonna have writers prompting ai to deliver scripts And what it's gonna become is if you're a writer You better learn the way to prompt ai To give you the output you want and then you better learn editing skills because that's the deal. Okay, you're gonna become A prompter for ai and you're gonna become an editor You're gonna have to spit out your thousand word Compilation and then you're gonna have to add eight or ten sentences where they're needed You're gonna have to take a couple away And how did you prompt that in what way did you prompt that to deliver the article that you were looking for? But writers in Hollywood Imagine you're in top shape, man because writing in general content in general Not gonna be as labor-intensive as it once was and ai changing the world to a certain degree for sure All right, let's jump around and see what else I have pulled up Let's talk a little bit of jp morgan and let's talk a little bit of cuts jp morgan assets says markets are right to Bet on a us rate cut the fed may lower rates by third quarter as us us growth slows Recession is needed to bring inflation back down. I would argue that's the case man inflation's raging unemployment's at 3.4 percent And we probably need some pain To make sure the companies cannot be raising prices the way they've been able to And this is talking about Head of global rates in london So us recession is virtually certainty as the fed may lower rates by the third quarter as growth loses momentum That's according to jp morgan asset management and this gentleman seamus macorain head of global rates in london inflation is too high It will take a recession to bring us back down Us banking that would be the case have made a recession more likely We've seen a lot of wall street i bring this up because we've seen a lot of wall street shy away from saying That the fed is going to be cutting right you've seen a lot of them saying geez that's a tough scenario You know, they're probably going to pause But things aren't that dire yet. We'll see if they go and as they bring up You got goldman and barclays which caution that the fed will be less aggressive and cutting rates this year than markets are predicting That's been the common theme. So interesting to see jp morgan pushing back a little bit saying hey things might be worrisome here Uh, and we might actually get cuts in the third quarter boy. What's happening if we're getting cuts man I have to remind you folks that core cpi was just at 5.5 percent. Okay, uh, and what I what I cannot argue with those that Fixed income right now is a good spot to be in folks. Okay They're talking about cuts And he's talking about fixed income He's not talking about hey, we're gonna see cuts and this market's going to accelerate treasuries are still the best market Other markets have started to become more attractive the real point to get involved Will be when you see clear evidence of inflation Turning in those markets, which may not come until a bit later in the summer a bit later in the summer, man We need a lot more Would be my opinion in terms of what we have happening there, but risk-free rate of return, man Hasn't been around in a while and it's around right now and when you start doing the numbers folks. Okay I mean even look at where we were the last six months, right look at where we were in september You're right where you were. Well, that's six months Of free interest that you just gave up and what's that two to three percent return on your money that you just gave Up by sitting in stocks let alone. We're pushing five percent now Stay tuned folks. We're coming back with our man teddy keg staff We'll talk some dollar. We'll talk some forex. We'll talk some commodities. Don't go away If you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball After all it's impossible to predict the future, right? 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Uh, welcome back. We got the s and p's right now What'll be positive by about 15 points? I get the spy up there s and p's positive by 15 We do trade a little bit lower on that uh Trendline that we've been talking about we'll see if the day uh with the day holds the day is young as our band man Basil Chapman says But right now we're gonna jump over to our man teddy cakes that folks you can check out teddy's outstanding tiger forex report He puts out a new issue every monday. I always say I know a lot of you don't trade forex There is An abundance of great information in there that you can use whether you're talking about talking about the forex pair It's talking about Bonds talking about crude oil right talking about currencies in there. Please check it out. You can go over sign up It's 97 dollars. You gain access to the archive webinar that teddy just did it comes with the money back guarantee You can't go wrong folks and teddy just did that uh live Archive less than a month ago folks talking about the second quarter. So you get that as well And uh as usual we got some action teddy. We got the dollar index trading higher yet again. Good morning Good morning. Yeah, we do have some very good action today. What do you want to talk about to start off? Where do you want to kick it off, man? We got action everywhere. We got yields We got the dollar pushing 103. Why not the dollar? Can we check out the dollar because we got a little bit of movement Especially in the last week or so Sure, uh, well the dollar definitely is um showing some nice strength Especially because you got the euro that's following you got the swiss and the yen that both are broken out To the upside which is a very nice indication of dollar strength right now So the only one it's really kind of lagging is the british pound us dollar trade But outside of that right now the euro are assuming the us dollar is very strong versus most major pairs Yeah, and I know we got a lot of gold bulls, of course Uh that follow that are watching that are in the tiger's den golds been pulling back as we've had I mean even from last wednesday we're at almost 101 on the dollar index. We're at 103 right now We've seen gold go from like 2050 down to the low of 1985. I think it was this morning Uh for those in that market teddy with the dollar at 103 I know you put this stuff out in the letter every week But where do you see some of these levels? Maybe if you are, you know Bullish in the dollar you're looking for a pop or maybe you're looking back on on that lower consolidation Where do you see kind of the risk-reward ratios with the dollar at 103 when really we're That 101 area was kind of a nice low that we had and now we're almost not no man's land But we got a high back there from march at almost 106 and we're sitting kind of in the middle at 103 Sure sure well right now I definitely am a short-term bull with the dollar first of all you have the uh the yield curve Which now you have the bonds that broke out to the downside this week that's setting a new trend There's definitely I would say you're going to see a nice little surge in In rates over the next few weeks meaning bonds and tenure prices going lower And if that scenario is right then you're going to see that definitely the um the dollar's short up And I think one of the major currencies you have to watch is um The euro to the downside. Um, is it going to be an aggressive sell-off? Probably not, but I think the trend is definitely going to be lower for the euro for the next Probably a week and a half to two weeks Um, what'll be very interesting to watch is the us dollar swiss trade because overall that market is a bull against the dollar However, the swiss is really grinded against the dollar for months And I think that we we've set a nice little bottom and I wouldn't I'd be very careful with being along the us dollar swiss I think you still have a little nice potential to the upside probably another one to two basis points So um, and especially with the us dollar yen, there's another one to the upside I think there's a lot of potential. I think we could see um very very big multi month highs in the us dollar yen And I think if you want to have a really good risk reward trade buying dips in the us dollar yen Trade for probably the next one to two months would be a very good play Nice, of course, that's going to impact the gold contract. But yeah, that's a volatile chart, man I just pulled it back. Um the last what 12 months. Yeah, you talk about some volatility in the dollar yen pretty much everywhere in this market And what do you think about crude teddy because we're chopping around that food market was sitting just above 70 bucks Quite the pullback that we had uh in april you gave back all real peck plus plus plus some we actually hit 43 bucks I got on my chart. Uh, what do you think accrued sitting at just above 71 dollars? Um with crude, I think you have to kind of watch out. Let's see. I'll give you some levels here Uh, I would say with crude You need to probably look out for the Let's see Probably the this the last high swing high around that 73 64 areas key If we take that out, then I think you're gonna have to you'll probably get a surge in crude But as long as we stay below that I think it's gonna be a choppy trade from 70 probably two dollars down to about 68 67 dollars Um, I don't see it trending to the downside. I see more of a choppy action going on When it comes to crude, I don't see that we could probably have any major extended sell-off There's no reason to we're coming into the summer where demand is going to be increasing You know, so I would I just can't can't be a bear on that one You know, I think that and especially if rates do start to go higher again That's it probably going to help give a lift to the bulls for the crude oil market as well So that's a perfect segue and you talked about yields a little bit You talked about it on the 30 or I had it up around the chart where you were talking about it Um, but just a little big picture. I know for those that have been listening I mean you're looking for potentially some some hikes out there as we go forward Uh, what did you think of some of you know since the last week? It seems like we get so much daddy had retail sales We got some numbers out there Um from Home Depot we got, you know, the retail sales are pretty strong man in all things consider What do you think about the conversation about the fed because we're already shifting I feel like we're about a month out now from the june meeting And you're hearing some fed speak out there Of course, we had a lot of it the last couple days. What do you think? How does that factor into what you're talking about with bonds? You're still looking for potential hikes at the next meeting. Are you ready to see this? I'm looking for more hikes. Absolutely I don't see anything relatively with the numbers that me would indicate any reason for them to stop hiking I just really don't you know, so I think that the numbers even though They're not as coming out as bad as they have over the past year and a half. Um, that doesn't mean they're not still horrible You know, relatively there So and I would watch the s and p's, you know, the s and p's have been drifting They're failing to make new highs, you know And uh, this will be a good a crude trade for you if the s and p's especially the transports If you watch the transports if those take a dive over the next two to three months Then you might see crude lay off a little bit, you know, so but if transports stay firm, you know That's something I would say is going to also hold up the crude market But overall I would watch those s and p's Especially as rates start to climb if they do if I'm right on that one and bonds and tenders start to really Start to hit new lows Then I would say you're going to probably see the s and p as a whole under pressure I mean, there's only eight stocks that are holding it up to begin with right now Yeah Whenever i'm looking at the s and p man, I'm watching apple and microsoft and I mean those articles It just made me pull up those eight stocks because I said that's what's doing everything man Um, it is pretty interesting and yeah, I mean s and p's you can't deny You don't have to be a master uh technical trader to say man We're bumping up against an area whether it's 4200 4150 whatever it is um been resistance recently And yeah, I always keep saying to myself teddy I say it to my listeners too, but core cpi is at 5.5 percent man We got some ways to go I'm not sure if you heard some of the fed speak going on from rafael bostics and yeah, you know like anything could happen Of course, we could come down But boy when you talk about the risks in this market I think it would really lean to the fact that there's more of a risk that we hike And guess what the best part about it is we get to find out uh in a month at the june meeting And I imagine no matter what happens in june, man, even if they do pause Uh They have a long way to go like you say it so we're going to get to see this thing play out over some period of time Well, teddy, I appreciate the time on a busy morning as always man It's always interesting to say where we'll be next week by then But I appreciate the insight folks. Check it out on the front page of tfnn the tiger fork support And uh teddy will talk to you next week man. Have a great week. Okay. Thank you. Tommy. You have a great week too Thanks for coming on folks. Check it out. Teddy's putting he puts an outstanding report out every monday I read it every monday. He sends it out to subscribers And you heard him right there. He tells you where the um, what his opinion is and we get to find out right Whether they're right or wrong, but he gives it to you folks. 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I know i'm wrong all the time Everyone's wrong all the time man, but sometimes okay, you're right and Sometimes it just seems too easy folks, okay But you take a look at that technical indicator in terms of the line that we're bumping up against man You don't have to give yourself much room when you're trading stuff like this Okay, you give yourself maybe three points maybe five points keep things tight with the type of volatility we've been going I've been talking about in this program You can trade this market both directions depending on what kind of strategy What kind of risk award you're talking about and the moves you're getting we just got 15 s and p points Right from where we were coming into the open we opened right at that trend line same exact thing we did yesterday, man Okay, yesterday's action. We spike at 940 right up to that channel line. We sell off um And again doesn't mean it's gonna happen doesn't mean we're not gonna recoil to that level But I put that level on your chart right now because we're talking about going back a good six trading days Yeah, today's the sixth day. We're bumping up against that level right now And this market's gonna have some headwinds, man Because you're seeing Things play out talking about margins talking about cuts talking about hikes But it's all about earnings folks and margins are playing into things and when companies can't raise the thing You have to think I trying to think about right going forward is okay, so we're gonna tame inflation I am confident that we are gonna get inflation under control because we have to And the chairman knows that I think so we get inflation under control. What does that mean? That means companies cannot raise prices anymore. Well, where is there a lag? There's a lag in wages, right? Wages have to catch up a little bit with the inflation. We've been seeing so what's gonna happen You're gonna have companies unable to raise prices the way they've been used to And you're gonna have some lag in costs still going on, right? And so what's gonna happen margins are gonna be in trouble. That's what people talk about So even if we get there be careful in this market as we're sitting near 4200 We have a little bit of a sell-off on the open all the market still in the positive though And yeah, mr. Elon Musk. I didn't get to talk about this one that much But you know him talking about it's morally wrong. This is the headline folks working from home is morally wrong You want to have a conversation? What's morally wrong, man? It's the richest man in the world paying no taxes on all the money he has Okay, and he's gonna say he paid taxes He only paid those taxes when he sold all his shares to buy twitter He didn't have to the richest people out there paying no taxes. Okay, that is morally wrong You talk about people that can do their job from home on a laptop Not really the same deal. We'll end on that one. Stay tuned folks. We got