 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access to Trader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody had a great week of trading. For all you guys who are coming aboard viewing for the first time, welcome aboard. Like, subscribe, share. Come aboard, share this mission of unbiased technical analysis journey on a day-by-day basis based on data. Right? Not based on our opinions. I've always stated, I'm an idiot. I'm probably the biggest idiot. And if I had to guess where the market would be, I would be in a really bad shape. So it's all about the numbers. It's all about data crunching and applying it when stocks confirmed. So here we are. Okay. We ended the week, NASDAQ up 3.3 percent, the S&P and the Dow up about a little less than 2.5 percent. And when you look at the year-to-date totals, the QQQs are up 42 percent. That's staggering. That's absolutely staggering. The loss of 31 percent in 2022 is plus 12 percent or 11 percent going into this week. And, you know, it's just, it's one of those scenarios that we're seeing now seven months into the year that we're getting this really aggressive rally, right? And then just when you think they pull back a little bit, just a little bit to kind of reset their feet, kind of get their wind, you know, wind behind them, they start going again. And it's that parabolic move. It's like, you know, like in the video has been a perfect example. If you watched the video on Wednesday, you know, we talked about how aggressive they were coming for the 450 calls. Just a one after another after another. And this was the highest close in this whole formation. Yeah, you know, 450, you know, the stock went to 480. I mean, it's just absolutely ridiculous. A name like Tesla when they started coming out of the range here, we were watching the top of the range here, finally confirmed. Again, we'll get to the pivots in a second. You know, they were coming for the 300 calls. Now we know why. They were coming for the 300 calls before earnings that's on Wednesday because well, the first Gigafactory is officially built in Texas and they're going to start rolling out the Cybertruck. So they knew that the options market guys, again, it dictates the underlining stock. The more you see better bets coming in, the more aggressive these bets are coming in, the more frequent these bets are coming in the same option chain and the same expiration short term deep out of the money. And especially in this type of environment, there's a high probability somebody knows something, somebody got a wind of it, it's spread like wildfire and betters are going in the options market and really putting down some major wood. And that's exactly what happened with Tesla. That's exactly what happened with NVIDIA. Where are those 450 calls? Again, just the video just on Wednesday, just one video back. Microsoft, we were talking about Wednesday, they were coming for the 345 weeklies, right? Again, they got upgraded. They knew, right? They knew in this market, it's almost crazy. Like years ago, you guys remember the movie Wall Street and some of you guys, maybe you haven't seen, I'm sad thinking most people saw it with Charlie Sheen, you know, Bud Fox and Gordon Gekko and all that stuff. There was like a whole big stigma in the 1980s inside of trading. It was like this cloak and dagger world. Now all you need to do is have an option scanner. You know when they're coming for these deep out of the money costs, somebody knows something. So it's amazing. Nobody is afraid of prison. They're buying stock. They don't care. They don't buy in the options market. It's crazy. But now you can just follow along, get yourself a scanner. They're all pretty much comparable. Flow algo is what I use. Shutter flow, trade alerts, black box stock. There's like a million of them. They're all pretty much the same thing. Get yourself an option scanner. You'll see all these aggressive bets. And you know, in this type of environment, they're really, really playing out. Again, if you look at the indexes, again, the QQQ's absolute runaway train, ugly, ugly reversal in the middle of the day. You can see here everything was just screaming, screaming up and a lot of stocks that it had huge moves in the morning. They gave it all back really, really aggressively and it really does show you Amazon, Nvidia, you know, all these things give it really, really right back. And it really does to show you is, again, if you keep on chasing levels that are outside of the breakout price, you're jumping off the 12th floor. So for example, Microsoft, the breakout was here. We'll show you the pivots in a second. The breakout was at 343. It wasn't, you know, 351. That's the 12th floor. That's what we always talk about jumping out of the 12th floor. Don't jump. If you're going to jump, jump out of the 1st floor, right? That's the 343 breakout. Remember, there's only one breakout. Everything else is continuation and the higher a stock goes away from his breakout level, the higher the probability the stock will get pulled harder. So for example, look at Nvidia, right? Nvidia broke out right here, right? It broke out at 339. Look at the pull, right? Look at the pull. However, a stock like Tesla that broke out above 378, right? This little channel here 378, although it did give back some into the close, it held majority of its gain. So again, closer to the breakout, you'll have a higher probability of surviving the fall out of the 1st floor than 60 points out of the money in three days like Nvidia and you can get pulled for dollars. So just always remember, there's only one breakout, right? There's only one breakout and everything else is follow-through continuation. You're trying to find the stocks that are closer to the bottom of the range than they are to the top of the range because you have a higher probability of succeeding when the stock gets above that range. And if you're wrong, you're wrong for pennies because you know exactly how important that level is than instead of losing dollars following a stock 20, 30 points after its breakout level. So we started earning season, right? We started earning season. The banks kicked off the earning season. I think it was a Thursday or Friday, Citibank. We have on Monday, nothing really big on Monday. Tuesday you have Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, PNC, more banks. Wednesday is what I'm really concentrating on. Wednesday we have Tesla, right? There's a lot of 13 F filings over the weekend, really, really big money managers taking big stakes in Tesla. You just go through the intake and go through Twitter. You'll see a lot of filings over this week, BlackRock, Fidelity, people taking some positions. Again, they were coming from the 300 calls very, very aggressively ahead of earnings, ahead of Wednesday earnings. They did come out with that pretty good PR after the close about rolling out the first Gigafactory, finally done in Texas. It was a stock going to get a run, pre-earnings run going into next week. I mean, the chart looks great, right? The chart looks absolutely great. It could definitely, definitely get a run into the earnings. Is it possible we see 300 ahead of earnings? Sure, absolutely. We'll talk about that. Netflix also comes out with earnings on Wednesday as well. And I believe IBM as well. IBM, and then you've got Goldman Sachs as well. And then throughout the week, next week, the following week, you have pretty much everybody else. The following week, the apples of the world, the Metas, the Amazon, so forth, the Google, so forth, and so on. But the question is going into this earnings season is, well, now we had this massive run, right? We had this absolutely massive run. Again, NVIDIA is probably the poster boy of this parabolic moonshot that we've having. The question is, is this baked in, right? Is that always the question going into earnings season? And you could only speculate. You could only guess. But speaking of the options market, right? NVIDIA, we saw ahead of earnings, okay? They're buying the 500 calls. And keep this in mind. This is after the stock went from 298 to 480, they're going aggressive into the 500 calls, right? A name like Netflix that had, you know, a really nice run, you know, they're betting the 500 calls as well. So it's very, very interesting to see is the market completely in La La Land is just discounting every bit of reality just doesn't want to come in no matter what. They're bidding it into euphoria. It doesn't make a difference. Or is it this time around a scenario that, well, maybe the earnings are baked in and maybe it's time to have a good, healthy pullback? Again, I don't know the answer to that. We're just, you know, we're just thinking out loud. Our jobs as traders is to always put ourselves in the position that we're not trading with, you know, rose-colored glasses. We're trading based on common sense and data. So it's very good to be very, very interesting to see when Tesla and Netflix kicks off earnings, especially after their runs as well. You know, how high is this euphoria is really being gauged. And obviously to the follow leap, we'll see everything else with Amazon, Apple, MetaGo on Google, so forth and so on. So here we are on the indexes, right? And again, I try to look at the market from a day to day basis. Okay, even though I'm extremely bullish as well, you guys have been watching these broadcasts. You know, I always look at the market and say, is the market tired, at least for the next day? Okay, I don't know what's going to happen two days from now, three days from now. Hell, I don't know what's going to happen Monday, but I'm always prepared on both sides of the market. And I look at the market on Friday and I turn around and go, well, look at all these reversals towards the end of the day, right? Yeah, Qs basically went from, you know, 82 to 78 in the last hour. NVIDIA literally just fell off a cliff. NVIDIA just literally went from 480 to 450. This is in the last hour, right? AMD that had a ridiculous run at the open. Look at the move, it went from 122 all the way down to 115. And the question was, was this an exhaustion cycle, right? That's the major, that's the only thing I have to try to figure out for Monday. Was this is an exhaustion cycle? Was this a scenario that too much too fast? I think we need to break or is this one of those scenarios that, hey, who knows? Maybe some program trading kicked in in the afternoon. They talked about some rebalancing. I know the rebalancing is not wasn't for Friday. It's for a couple of weeks out. Maybe had something to do with that. Who the hell knows? It's all speculation. I'm not smart enough to understand. I don't think anybody's smart enough to understand how the market goes on a second by second hour by hour basis. We're just taking the closing prices and trying to formulate an opinion going into Monday. Here's how I look at it, right? Here's how I look at it, right? Look, if this was a short term, when I mean short term, I mean literally short term. If this was a short term kind of an exhaustion cycle, then yeah, you know what? I do want to watch some of these stocks on the bottom of the range going into Monday. Is it possible, you know, this was an outlier event and we continue to go up Monday? Of course. Again, that's why I'm prepared on both sides of the market, but I want to watch the queues, right? I want to see what happens here. Guys, write down this number. $378 on the queues. There's no macro implications on it. Usually I talk about macro levels when it's coming out of a channel or breaking down a channel. This was just the previous day's range. Watch the $378 level on the queues. If the queues start coming in below the $378 level and they start building below, which basically means price action is taking place below Friday's lows, maybe we do get a back test for one or two days and the way these stocks have been in orbit, maybe the back test could be very, very aggressive. Again, you could only make a plan. We can't control the price action. We could only make a plan and see if that confirms. Let's watch that $378 level on the queues. If we're watching the queues $378, a lot of these stocks are going to correlate with the queues. For example, I'm watching the video. The video had this ridiculous 30-point pullback. Let's keep an eye on this thing. If the video starts losing Friday's channel, and you can see on the 60-minute view, if it starts losing this whole channel here, hey, this stock just ran up like 1,000 points. Why can't we get 5, 10, 15-point move on the video? Something like this I definitely, definitely want to watch. A name like Tesla, I still think they're going to run this thing ahead of its numbers. It broke out on Friday. This is the highest close in this whole formation. I want to watch this thing above Friday's channel in case they start really ramping up the stock ahead of numbers. A name like LITE, I'm not really familiar with the name, but hey, look at the setup here. The stock lost its range on Friday. It touched a 50-day moving average. If this thing starts losing the 50-day moving average, who the hell knows? Maybe this thing can get hit. I don't know if Zoom will confirm on Monday, but let's watch it this week. You see how long this distribution channel is? And again, I always like to see what the options market is doing. Let's keep an eye on this thing. If this thing starts getting above this whole channel here, maybe this thing can wake up. They've started coming for the $80 August call, so it's definitely a name that I want to pay attention to. Let me give you guys a couple of more names that I want to watch, and then we'll kind of run through the pivots really quickly from Friday. AI, look at AI. AI had a big, big run. Big, big run. First close below the 20-day moving average. I want to keep an eye on this thing in case the market does have weakness. Maybe this thing gets another pull. And a smaller price name. Look at the stock, FOLD. Nice-looking chart. It's held up for two days in a row. Nice-looking channel here. Look at the weekly view on FOLD. This is getting very, very close into a multi-multi, almost a six-month breakout. So this could be pretty good this week if you're trading smaller names. Keep an eye on that as well. Right, so we're kind of set up for Monday tentatively. I want to see if there is going to be a follow-through from Friday's sell-off, just to give us some cash flow. Again, nobody's talking about Armageddon. Nobody's saying the video is going to go back to 200. We're just taking it trade by trade, trying to take advantage of gravity in the previous days' channels. That's it. Nothing more, nothing less. The same way we would take advantage to the upside if the stock was breaking out. We're not trying to guess where it's going to be three weeks from now. We're just trying to get a piece of the pie for Monday. So let's talk about Monday. Let's talk about Friday. As you can imagine, some incredible, incredible moves. Again, congratulations for all you guys. Both Tesla and Microsoft closed above their breakout prices on Thursday, and they both did pretty well, right? So here is Thursday, and again, there's no Thursday video. Thursday's video, they started coming in with size buyers, comes into the 300 calls for a super experienced traders. You can start above 275, but it has to get above 278. It did that, right? It closed well, highest close in the whole formation. Tesla actually started the day down. It was down like $1 and changed pre-market. But once it started getting going, it had two moves. Initial move was like the 280 and a half. That was the June highs. And once it got above the June highs, I think I said there was a potential that you had the 284 and a quarter. Tesla went to 285 and changed. It was a really great job. Congratulations for all you guys who had Tesla. Letter U broke out on Friday. This has been such a really great trader. Nice move. It failed at $48 level. Again, 45 to 848. Great job there. Microsoft 343 needs to build. It confirmed pretty much within 10, 15 minutes into the close. On Thursday, got upgraded. Got upgraded and went all the way up to almost 352. So a huge, huge move there as well. PRLTR didn't confirm. Roblox didn't confirm. TTDO, I didn't trade. I went up a couple of bucks. It was a little too thin for me. Yeah, I went up a couple of bucks and then the market completely just died. Disney never got to 91. Nice move on Google. 12483 needs to build. Here was Google. Took out the 12483. Went to almost 127. Actually held up fairly well. Netflix went up like two, three points and they got just absolutely destroyed. AFRM never got to 18. It's actually pretty interesting. They were coming for next, was it the 7? I can't remember which option series it was. I think it was the August. Can't remember what it was. They were coming for the $21 calls. Keep an eye on this thing, especially if it starts reclaiming 18 bucks. Other than that, really solid action. Really, really solid action all the way around. The most important thing, again, just always remember guys, don't look at it from a euphoric point of view. Always play devil's advocate. Always put yourself in a position that you are playing the defender. I always say this since one of my biggest pet peeves. Always lead with your shield, not with your chin, meaning wake the hell up. It's not peaches and cream. It's not a day at the beach. Sometimes what you're seeing is what you want to see, not reality. I definitely want to be a little bit cautious to at least the start of the week. Watch the queues. Watch a lot of the stocks that are correlated with the queues because if they do start losing Friday's channel, it could get some pretty good value to a downside potential poll. Guys, have a great night, everybody. Have a great remainder of your weekend. And with God's help, I'll see you all Monday.