 Welcome to the CMC Markets weekly webinar with myself, market analyst David Madden. The date is Monday the 11th of September. Apologies for the technical issues we've had at the very beginning of the webinar, but we will kick off the webinar right now. As always, we will leave the risk warning on the screen in front of you. That is for you to have a read of it yourself. I'll leave the slides up there for a number of seconds so you can just read through the risk warning itself, and that will keep my compliance department very happy. Essentially what it says is that what is discussed in the webinar should not be construed as explicit trading or investment advice. So if you just want to keep reading through the risk warning yourself, as always the format for the webinar will be the same. I've run down the major events over the past 48 hours, over the past few days. Then I have a quick look at the week ahead, the major events to keep an eye out, both corporate and economic events to keep an eye out, and then we'll run through the major markets of what's been going on and what we potentially could see as the week unfolds. And then as always, any questions you have or comments, any markets that I haven't covered that you wouldn't like me to cover, feel free to just stick them in the chat box and I will happily go through those as well. Excellent. So looking at the major moves that we witnessed over since Friday's close, since Friday's close, what we've essentially seen is two fronts. Hurricane Irma in North America has obviously caused a lot of devastation, a lot of destruction, but what we have seen in relation to the hurricane is that it has not been downgraded to a category one hurricane. And going into the weekend, it was deemed to be a category five hurricane. So the expectations for the disruption and devastation and that that would cause has actually been coming a lot lower than expected. So we've seen the equity markets take that quite positively because quite frankly, the traders were very nervous approaching, we closed the business on Friday. So we've seen very much a risk on day-to-day in relation to that. We also have seen some of the insurance stocks which under severe pressure at the back end of last week have also bounced back this morning because once again, obviously there are going to be tremendous costs and an effort in the cleanup and in the wake of Hurricane Irma, but it hasn't been as bad as the markets have expected. Also what we saw over the weekend or rather what we didn't see over the weekend, over the weekend, the North Korean state had its anniversary of the founding of the state. And given that there has been such high political tensions in relation between the Pyongyang and Tokyo and also the United States, in recent weeks, traders were very afraid that this, the event where we celebrated and marked by the testing of a missile or two. Seeing as that didn't happen, that there was a bit of expectation that that would happen that also is adding to the poor sentiment we're seeing today. So today appears to be your classic risk on day whereby equity markets are quite strong. We're also seeing a sell-off in metals such as gold and silver which are the classic flight quality plays. So take a look now at the VOTC 100 and see how it's shaping up. What I can say to you about the European indices, the downward trend that they have been in for a number of months does seem to kind of be coming to an end. And we are seeing some kind of signs that we could be looking to break out of the kind of negative move. The VOTC itself though is a bit of a different animal. It's been, to be honest, largely range bound for the last number of months. The skew and the bias has been to the downside but the kind of crucial, the key support just south of 7,387,288. 7,295. That sort of region has been as active well. And now we have seen a move higher in the VOTC 100. We're now trading north of the 50-day moving average, we're trading north of the 100-day moving average. And the next level to watch out for to the upside, we could see the resistance at 74.61. I should be take out 74.61. We then could be looking towards 7,481. And then north of that, the August high, 72,552. As we're seeing, this region here has been a decent level of support just in around the 7,300. And now that we're kind of moving above these metrics, which previously have acted as a combination of support and resistance the last few months, it is a bit of a bullish indicator. It's not overly, it doesn't, instead, which you would know the confidence that the positive momentum is only just about, the momentum, it's just about in positive side. We have to see a real convincing, we get to see a real convincing swing around in momentum. But as you can see with the price action, the bias for the time being appears to be to the upside. But it's one of those things that the more the market goes up, the more confidence you can be in that upward move continuing. If we take out this resistance level here, the September resistance at 7,461, that could be an indication that this kind of almost multiple consolidation has come to an end and we could be lucky to get a push higher from there. And of course, should we break north of 7,461, then that level will in turn be old resistance level and then of course, could act as future support. And then of course, once you take out that high, the big high to kind of shake off the overall kind of downward trend will be, should we take out 7,552? The DAX is looking a bit more interesting and a bit more direction to it. The downward trend, excuse me, I must apologize, I do have a small bit of a cough so if I do cough during the webinar, that is entirely surprising. And if you don't hear me talk for a number of seconds, it's maybe just because I'm having a quick drink of water. The downward trend that the DAX has been in for a number of months now, we're seeing signs of that overall downward move coming to an end. It was a classic downward trend, lower low, lower high, lower low, lower high, lower low, lower high, all the way down until late August. Then of course, it's a push higher, late August, early September. That was also mirrored by the increase in positive momentum so that the move higher we're seeing here is also replicated in the increase in positive momentum. For the time being, the 100-day moving average is going to be, is could potentially act as resistance. This level here, which is 12,457, with the 100-day moving average, I'm sorry, I apologize, the 50-day moving average, this price here at 12,264 potentially acting as support should we see any downward moves. But seeing as this positive move here has taken off the highs of August, it could suggest that this is potentially a turnaround or a shaking off of the negating of the downward trend that we have been in for some months. Should we have a decisive move beyond the 100-day moving average at 12,457? Beyond that, we're going to be looking towards 12,512,576, and then of course the July high of 12,678. Move to the downside, could find support at the 200-day moving average, which comes into play at this price here in around the 12,070, 12,080 region. It has acted as decent support here in the past bearing in mind. The U.S. markets have been in better shape than their European counterparts. So as I mentioned, the gap higher over the weekend, positive sign, given what was happening in relation to Hurricane Irma, just south of the 50-day moving average in around the 21,700 region has been acting as support for the Dow Jones in recent sessions. So while we remain north of that, the other could potentially continue to look positive. So obviously the gap higher that was created over the weekend is also an indication that we could see a further move higher in the Dow Jones. Notice how the negative momentum ever so slightly decreasing. So that is also kind of pointing in the same direction. The negative momentum is falling, but the price is rising. So the next level to watch out for to the upside could be the resistance from here from the 1st of September at 22,039. And then should we take out that level, the next price region, possibly potentially looking towards will be 22,200 and then fresh, and then beyond that will be creating new record highs. Any moves lower in the Dow Jones may find support in around the region of the 50-day moving average, which comes into play here in around 21,785 down to around 21,700. Notice how it has traded through the 50-day moving average on a number of occasions. So we haven't seen that kind of a typical bounce directly off of it, but it has pierced that level, that metric, excuse me. And then afterwards continued to kind of push higher beyond that. So we are seeing lower lows, sorry, higher lows rather on the Dow Jones, we get really to see higher highs until this level is potentially taken out. And then of course, if we do take off this region here at 22,039, we can then be more confident we're going out to test the record high and potentially create further record highs. Just to open up the S&P 500 now, similar looking position to the S&P 500. Gap tire over the weekend, which is obviously, which is a bullish indicator when I'll appear not too far away from the resistance 24,480, we're about six points or five or six points shy of that mark. Should we take out that level, both of them be looking on towards the old-time high, which is created in August in this area here, just north at 2,490, besides the level of 2,491. So obviously if we take out this level here, could put us on track to retest the old-time high and then beyond the old-time high, we will look to potentially create new highs. It is encouraging to see that the momentum has, it remains in positive territory that's actually increasing, has actually increased on the day on Monday in comparison with Friday. So you can be more confident that this upward move is likely to continue. Any kind of pullbacks we see in the SB 500 may find support in around this region here, the 50-day moving average, which is kind of active as support for not even, we haven't even traded as low as the 50-day moving average on a number of occasions. So any kind of moves in the direction of the 50-day moving average could entice potentially new buyers into the fold. And that will come into play in around the 2,457 region. And then if we take out that price, the next level to watch out for to the downside could be 2,446. And then you may be looking back towards the water-day moving average at this price here at 2,435. So we talked about how we've seen a positive move in equities both in Europe and also in the US index futures. But now on the flip side of that, because as I mentioned at the top of the webinar, it is being a bit of a risk on the conversely, we're seeing an exit, money being poured out of gold. And again, gold has had quite a good run along with silver. So a better profit taken is hardly to be expected. So the back end of last week, running into Friday, when all the fear was pent up in relation to what North Korea is gonna do, what's gonna happen with Hurricane Irma, we saw gold push on to just north of 13,000, foot 13,000, sorry, 1,300 rather, and 57, which of course actually brings us back to resistance points here, back seen in August last year, it's over a year high for the actual medlet itself. So we traded just shy of running into resistance, just shy of the resistance, 1,300 and 58. We've seen a bit of a pullback this morning. The upward trend is still very much in place. But what we have noticed is in relation to the downward move in price, we won't see that cooling in positive momentum. So as positive momentum is declining, or as price is declining, it could potentially mean that we're gonna see a continuation of a bit of a pullback before we potentially have another leg higher. Any pullbacks we see in gold may have found buyers in this price here at 13,31, and then south of that at 13,26. And then of course, look below that again, we'll be back looking towards the kind of 1310 and 1305 and 1300 region. Should we take out 1358 to the upside? We've been looking to the 2016 high of 1375. And this is the high that was created way back in the summer of, in early July of last year. And so then to watch out for to the upside, should we break north of 1358, the next day of the watch out for will be 1375. And then beyond that, the big psychological important 1400 number will then be potentially on the radar. Turning our attention to silver, similar deal, silver has had a great run on the back of the uncertainty with what's going on in relation to Hurricane Irma and North Korea and the relative week US dollar. But now of course we have seen some money pour out of silver over the weekend. So as you saw on Friday, it's spiked on Friday. I was trying at the highest level that scene since April on Friday, but of course we have given off some ground. Similarly with silver, we have seen it could have been a decline of positive momentum. So as price is pushing lower, positive momentum, the buyers are kind of running out of steam. We may potentially see a bit of a further pullback in the price of silver, but it's the market is still very much in the upward trend has been in for a number of months now. So moves lower in the silver market could find support in this region here at 17, spot 45. And then south of that at 17, spot 24. And then the maturity moving average could also be a level to potentially watch out for at 17.09. And if we continue to move higher in the price of silver, we will need to come over the 18.00 barrier. First of all, and then beyond that, chairs we've been looking towards 18.21. And then north of that, we've been looking towards April high of 18, spot 65 in relation to the price, excuse me, of oil. We obviously have seen some diversity between Brent crude oil and also the price of WTI in the last couple of weeks. As you can see here in the price of oil, even though once again it did spike going into the weekend, we took out the May high, but it really couldn't hang on to that level. Creating of new multi-month highs is a sign that the market is to the both side, but we have seen a bit of a pullback today. And also keep in mind how we have seen a slight decline in positive momentum. So we could see a potentially a bit of a drift lower before we potentially move higher again. So any moves lower in the price of Brent could find support in this area here in around the $53 per barrel. And then south of that, we have seen the dirty moving average has access support at the beginning of the month. So that's an also another area to watch out for potentially. The 50 moving average on Brent crude oil is currently at $52.34. Move to the upside. We were looking back towards the $55 a barrel mark. And then north of that, we've looked towards the April high of $56.53. Excuse me. Turning our attention now to WTI. It's been a bit range bound recently. Hasn't been as interesting as Brent oil counterpart. So as we can see here, it's been very much kind of, it didn't have to get a positive upward swing and take out previous months highs like Brent. It's still very much, it's still kind of range bound where like it has been for a number of weeks. So you can see here that WTI is almost trapped between the 200 moving average to the upside. Just at a in around, which comes into play at $49 and 36 cents. And at the downside, it's been supported by well, both the 50 moving average and also the one or two moving average are in probably speaking in around the same region in around the $47 and 20 cents region. So some traders will be looking for a break outside of that move in either direction in order to ascertain which way the market is to take you moving. Conversely, traders are looking to actually kind of trade the range. We've seen evidence that the market has found it difficult to break north of the 20 moving average by the same time simultaneously being supported by the one or two moving average. So range traders are looking to take advantage of a market saying within a certain price range it will also be keeping an eye out on those levels as well. Should we break north of the 20 moving average? I will then be looking, some traders will be looking towards the July high of $50 and 27 cents. And then north of that, the May high of $51 and 61 cents and then beyond that, the August high of $53 and 56 cents. Move to the downside, could potentially find support in around this price area here of $45 and 24 cents up to around $45 and 52 cents. This price area here, kind of this kind of 30 cent region that could be an area to watch out for. And then below that, the July low of $43 and 56 cents could potentially be an area of support should be moved south in the price of WTI. We have seen a bit of a sell off only recently in the Euro versus the US dollar. But the trend for the single currency versus the greenback has been very much to the upside. It's been in a very clear and concise up through trend. So a kind of popular strategy by some traders for the last number of months has been to kind of buy the dips for the Euro versus the US dollar. So the pullback that we've seen now, we're trading just some of the psychologically important so should we continue to see moves and lower in the Euro versus the dollar, we could potentially see some support in around the 119, 16 region and then south of that at 118, 47. And then potentially below that again, we might be looking towards the one or two moving out, sorry, the 50 moving average at 117, 32. And then obviously to the upside, we're going to be looking at Friday as high as the kind of first protocol, the first kind of layer of resistance the American need to break north of, which comes into play at 120 and 92. And then of course beyond that, you'll be looking towards 121, 122, so on and so forth. In relation to the question regarding WTI, it's been the classic case of that in relation to actually refineries, I think it's actually been kind of classic case of whereby the disruption that has been caused has been kind of caused on the refinery side. And actually, even though we've just refineries have just been kind of getting on track, getting back on track in relation to what's going on on the back of Tropical Storm Herbie, we've obviously had to contend with the with the with the with the top of the hurricane with the hurricane, Irma. So what we're seeing here is the potential you kind of shift because the versions continue is still in play between WTI or WTI is as I think kind of pushing higher. And conversely, we have to see the decline in the price of Brent crude oil over the weekend. So it's the kind of classic move where by getting actually disruption in the region is knocking out WTI, bearing in mind WTI, because they couldn't get WTI into the U.S. refineries, that was actually causing a downward move in the price of WTI when hurricane Irma, sorry, I apologize, when Tropical Storm Herbie was on the radar. And then we saw kind of a reverse in that as all refineries are coming back to the play. Now we're seeing because of just overall kind of disruption in the region, it's almost like WTI is being catch up with Brent and because obviously there was a bit of a lag between the two, we did see a period there where Brent or WTI was in decline and we were seeing Brent on the rise. Now we're just seeing kind of a divergence back and we could see some kind of harmonization of the two prices. What we're seeing here on the pound versus the U.S. dollar pound is still holding up nice and strong versus the U.S. dollar. The level of watch out for to the upside. Notice how this is a good example of why I kind of like to use to get the momentum indicator down here at the bottom of the screen. After the, on the back of the last month's Bank of England meeting, what we did see is we saw a fairly decent decline in the pound versus the U.S. dollar. And as the price was declining all the way down to about August, we're seeing a fairly steady and consistent increase in negative momentum. And then towards the kind of back end of the month we saw the rate of which negative momentum actually starting to decline. And that was mirrored by a slight kind of bounce back in the price. And then after that, we saw the price as the price was pushing higher, we actually saw a classic kind of increase in negative momentum, an increase in positive momentum all the while the price pushing higher. So when the price is going up and the momentum when the price and the momentum are going in the same direction you can be more confident that the price action is here to say because it's showing us that the buyers are in charge and we can see a clear sign of buy momentum is on the rise. So the next step of the watch off towards the upside on cable, the pound versus the dollar is 1.3267, the high from August. And then of course beyond that we've been looking towards 1.33, 1.34. Moves lower to the downside. May find support in at 1.31 to 1.64. And then south of that at 1.31 itself. And then we could potentially swing back to this price here at the 1.30 region. The euro versus the green versus the British pound has been, by and large the big picture has been positive but we have seen a fairly steady decline in recent sessions. And as the price has been clearly been pushing lower here we can see that there's been a very clear and concise increase in negative momentum. So we're not seeing of any sign of anything we're seeing at the rate of the negative move is increasing. So if anything, the setting momentum is on the rise. So we could be looking to push back towards the fifth of the moving average which comes into play at a 0, 90, 26, 0.926. And then south of that, we could be looking towards the 90-pence level itself. Bearing in mind, we haven't really tripped. Well, you dip below the fifth of the moving average back in May, but it's been a long time since we've been down at that metric. And seeing as the big picture is to the upside of this trend, we could potentially see some buying commit to play at this price here of 0.9026 or even the kind of this region itself of 0.90000. Should we see a pushes higher in the price of Euro versus the British pound? Levels to watch off for to the upside will be back up towards 92. And then beyond that, 92.26. And then of course, we may be looking towards the August high, which comes into play just north of 93 itself. Donner, this is where I'm gonna cover the American dollar versus the Japanese yen. If you've any markets that you do want me to cover, please just let me know. Stick it in the chat box. I'd be happy to do so, because I am aware that we did start this webinar a bit late due to technical issues, but I will kind of run down a glance of what's going on in terms of the week ahead as well. Pushing lower on the, it's very much a clear downward trend on the US dollar versus the Japanese yen as you can give us indication of how actually, how negative things were on Friday, we saw a major kind of push lower in the dollar versus the yen on Friday, going on here to create a level. Last seen since November last year. So the momentum, the outlook is very much to the downside. We can slowly see here that momentum isn't as very much, it's mostly slightly in negative territory. Just keep an eye on that as well. So should we move lower, should we move lower in dollar versus the yen? You could be looking back towards testing the Friday support at 107.32 and then below that up towards 107 and then below that looking towards the 106 number. As we are seeing a balance higher today, we could see a bit of an extension potentially in the positive move. The next level to watch out for to the upside is going to be 109.32 and then north of that 109.82 and then this level here at 1067. As you can see, it's been in a fairly obvious downward trend. So while we remain south of the kind of 1067 region, it is, you could potentially see the overall negative move to remain intact. The Australian dollar has seen a bit of a pullback just ever so slightly after having quite a good day on Friday, but as you can see here, the trend is very much to the upside on the Aussie versus the US dollar. Positive momentum is on the rise as well so that that's also something you can be a bit more confident in this upward move. Looking, we have seen a bit of a downward day today on the Aussie versus the greenback as money because as you've seen abroad, we're strengthening of the US dollar. And while we do remain north of the 80 level on the Aussie dollar versus the US dollar I will still kind of be quite a bullish indicator. So we could see some kind of selling back towards 80 but then again, 80 is a kind of big psychological number for the Aussie versus the US dollar. So we could see some potentially new buying coming to play should we go down to that level. If you do break south of it, the next level to watch out for to the downside will be the support is will be 72, so 79 rather, 79, 42. And then south of that again, back towards the 50 moving average at 78, 78. Move to the upside, looking back towards 81 and then obviously the Friday is high which comes into play at 80, 47 and then north of that 81, 63 and 82. I do thank you for your patience for hanging through at the very beginning of the webinar because we did have some technical issues. As always, take the time to kind of point out to kind of the on our website, news analysis. This is where the analysis that we do gets posted from around the globe. You can see here a breakdown of what to watch out for. As you can see here, this is the weekly calendar what we can look out for tomorrow. We have a new iPhone coming off of Apple but also keep in mind, we may have some updates in relation to Apple TV. What we have is we have UK CPI data coming out tomorrow or especially annual CPI in the UK to take up 2.8% from 2.6%. There's also a Bank of England meeting on Thursday. So that's how the voting pattern would be, the voting breakdown will be interesting and one to watch. Wednesday, we've been updated from Dunelm on Wednesday. On Thursday, we have some numbers out of China. We have industry production numbers and also retail sales numbers out of China on Thursday. Thursday and Friday, we have a combination of US retail sales and also US inflation. And given that we've seen a broad sell-off in the US dollar, people are very unsure whether the Fed reserved are going to be raising rates in December or not. We've had a resignation from member of the Fed of Reserve issues pertaining to the debt ceiling, tying in tropical forms to RV, tying also a hurricane or not to mention that the tensions with North Korea as well. So the US dollar has been very much moving to the downside, even though we have seen a balance back today. Hopefully, so watch out for tomorrow. We have Q1 number of smashed heads. We also have first-half numbers from JD Sports. As I mentioned on Wednesday, we've been updated from Dunelm. And we also have numbers from Soco International and the home builder, Gallifrey Try. Thursday, we have first-half numbers from Morrison Supermarket. And we also have first-half numbers from Next. And Friday, the one to watch out for from the UK will of course be JD Witherspoons. As always, let's show you very quickly on our platform where other kind of useful tools can be found. Some of the updates that we do get put on our, get put on our, on the News and Analysis section. Others get updated here on Insight. And Insight can be found under Market Pulse. Third option down. Third option, sorry, I apologize. Second option down is Insight. The one I want to come on to is a chart forum now, which is a quick kind of snapshot of a chart. And a couple hundred words, a couple hundred characters written about what we see, what we think potentially happened looking at the chart. The chart forum is the third option down. The economic calendar is the last option on the list. Gives you a breakdown of the major economic events that are coming out during the week. And also it will have the previous updates. And also it will have the forecast for what is penciled in for that particular economic event. Lastly, we also have other webinars you can sign up to. And they're in the same place where you found this webinar. So later tonight, we have a webinar at 7 p.m., London Times, 1900, British Summer Time, the Traitor Development Program. On Wednesday at 19.30 BST, British Summer Time, London Time, we have the index trading, we have an index trading webinar. And then this day next week, as usual, we will have the not 12.15 with the market webinar with myself, Dave Madden. I do want to thank you for bearing with us because of the technical issues at the top of the show. But thank you all, thank you. Thanks to everyone here at CNC Markets. Have a good week and good luck.