 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We are finally to the point in NFL training camps. We've got news that matters news like an impact betting markets things like Signings off free agents. We've got injuries. We've got camp battles that are being settled and all those things do impact betting markets So what we're gonna do for today is catch up on all the NFL news We have not yet discussed here on the show that has transpired across the past couple of weeks break down What it means for me with my wind total models and some other fun markets over at Fandall sportsbook Then I'll wrap up by talking about NASCAR at Watkins Glen later on. This is covering the spread That's right here on the Fandall podcast network. My name is Jim Sonis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research here to talk about the NFL for today break down training camp news And as I mentioned, we'll go through some NASCAR at Watkins Glen later on Let's start things off with the NFL here in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the covering the spread podcast feed wherever you get your podcast We had Austin cast on yesterday's show to break down this week in EPL That is for match week number two Austin went two for two on his bets last week two more bets in the show For this week find that on the covering the spread podcast feed wherever you get your podcast You were awesome as to say And also tomorrow lots more baseball here on the show as well get covering the spread wherever you get your podcast If you like what you hear leave us a five star rating on Apple podcast or Spotify The baseball season is heating up So get it on the action with Fandall America's number one sportsbook because right now new customers get $150 and bonus bets guaranteed when you place your first five dollar bet Fandall is safe secure and super easy to use plus when you win you'll get paid instantly So don't miss your chance to swing big with $150 and bonus bets win or lose when you make your first five dollar bet Fandall official partner majorly baseball majorly baseball trademarks used with permission must be 21 plus and president select states First online real money wager only ten dollar deposit required Refund issued as non with trouble bonus bets that expire in seven days restricts his apply see full terms at fandall.com Slash sportsbook fandall is offering online sports waging in kansas under an agreement with kansas star casino llc gambling problem Call 1 800 gambler or visit fandall.com slash rg in arizona 1 800 next step protects next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in connecticut 1 8 and 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 or visit cc pg.org slash chat in indiana 1 800 9 and with it in wyoming in kansas 1 800 5 2 2 4 700 and kansas ks gambling health dot com louisianna's 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in massachusetts gambling helpline ma.org or call you 100 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support in mariland md gambling health at org in new york 1 8 7 7 8 hope and wire techs open wide and in west virginia go to 1 800 gambler dot net Let's dig in now for yennefell and i want to touch on some teams that have had big changes recently across yennefell as we've had Some signings some injuries that could alter things from a betting perspective Obviously running backs are not going to move the needle a ton But i did at least want to touch on the signings of dalvin cook and azika elliott start things off here With the jets signing dalvin cook and cook Did not have a good year last year He had worse efficiency metrics in alexander madison as far as rushing yards over expectation and stuff like that he had explosion at time still but In that's not madison's forte But overall it was not a good year for dalvin cook, which is why he was released But the key here is that none of the jets backs other than brice hall had good years either hall averaged 1.4 rushing yards over expectation per carry according to next-gen stats And that's a very big number. He was tremendous last year michael carter was a negative point six zahneman night was negative point 0 2 israel abanaconda looked pretty good in the first preseason game i thought but he's also a fifth round rookie so Hall is coming off this torn acl He can't carry the entire load So the question is whether cook is an upgrade over the other guys over carter overnight abanaconda And how much does that matter? I do think that dalvin is an upgrade over those guys So I did put in a bump for the jets projected rushing efficiency But I also did lower their expected pass to run ratio because they gave dalvin cook a lot of money Aaron rogers past couple years has been in pretty rush heavy offenses. Maybe that does translate to this year as well so When you give dalvin cook 8.6 or whatever million dollars that's us to me. You're probably going to be decently rush heavy. You've got two good backs to do it The offensive line is struggling with past protection protection right now. So I think that the tea leaves kind of do say they're going to be a bit more Run-centric than I thought they may be initially So that lowers scoring expectation for them in the season as far as like projecting out totals and stuff like that I had the jets at 9.8 wins before and they are still there right now But I will be lowering point total expectations for them in their games because they're worried they may go a bit more rush heavy than I would like so Downgrading the jets from a scoring expectation, but the overall win expectation Did remain large the same at 9.8 wins As for the Patriots with Zeke Elliott, it's a pretty similar thing where like dalvin cook He's not great. He's coming off a pretty good or a pretty rough year But he's probably better than the alternative that they would have had Running it when remandry stevensson came out the field because someone's got to do short yard and stuff stevensson can't carry all the load So I did give the Patriots projected rushing efficiency a slight boost and I also did boost their third down success rate a bit because Zeke is good in short yard situations. So That could allow them to convert in those short yard situations a bit more often It doesn't matter a ton for their win total Uh, I've got them below their win total even at 7.5 wins They are minus 142 to go under we had talked about the Patriots win total under back when it was I believe still plus money But I think that's appropriate where they're at right now. So the value is in the past. It is no longer there In the ASE East as a division Patriots are pretty big underdogs right now They are 8 to 1 to win the ASE east. So obviously, you know pretty big underdogs I think that's appropriate once again. I cannot get to them at 8 to 1 As far as the rest of the division, uh, buffalo plus 120 the jets are plus 250 the dolphins are plus 290 The dolphins did lose jam and ramsey So I have downgraded their defense as a result of that and after you add in the ramsey injury I have buffalo at 10.2 wins the jets at 9.8 and the dolphins at 9.4. So a very concentrated division I think the biggest takeaway there is that I can't bet buffalo at plus 120 to win this division They've got a tougher schedule than the jets and dolphins, which is why their win total is lower than you might think at 10.2 wins I think you could consider both the jets and the dolphins if we had this like a true dead heat Every team would be two to one if we just come to the Patriots aren't there Obviously, that's not accurate because the Patriots could win this division. There is separation between these teams So, uh, that's not a proper way to do things But the jets are plus 250 the dolphins are plus 290 At least interesting at lean dolphins right now among this group if I were to bet one of those teams But I think it's a stay away from me with their thing stand right now The other what I would deem to be important nfl news was the rustle gauge injury rustle gauge going down For the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. So missed the entire year Due to an injury for this year and when you look at this buck's offense Their win total is six and a half wins with the over a plus 116 after I add in the rustle gauge injury I've got them at exactly 6.5 wins And that's actually the second lowest number in the entire sport ahead of just arizona for me at least The one point against being low on Tampa bay would be the infrastructure around the quarterbacks specifically they got mike evans and chris godwin Offensive line is not that bad And if you've got a non elite quarterback having guys like that around you can elevate everything in a pretty good way So if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were to exceed expectations It'd be because of that infrastructure But that infrastructure does take a hit with that rustle gauge because they're going to rely on probably a rookie Um to try to fill that gap Now from a division perspective that doesn't impact things much because I still think the saints are The best bet there a plus 130 the bucks though are in play for some grim bets some other markets that might not be quite as enticing so looking at teams the team to have the worst record in the nfl The Tampa Bay Buccaneers right now are plus 950 that is the second shortest number behind just the cardinals And I get why I do think the bucks are viable in that market But if you're looking for values stemming from the rustle gauge injury, which decreases the expectation For the entire offense. I think you're going to find a different market That is for the team to score the fewest points this year What you can find right now at vandal sportsbook in the season specials market And right now the Texas are their favorite there are plus 450 I think that's honestly a bit wild given that their offensive line is pretty good Their pass catchers have some upside cardinals are five to one to find Tampa Bay You have to scroll all the way down to 16 to 1 for them to be the lowest scoring team in the nfl this year This is a team with a defensive minded head coach who said last year when he had tom freaking brady as his quarterback So they want to be run central. They ran the ball despite the fact. They were awful at it This year they don't know tom brady. They're probably going to be run heavy once again they got an offensive line to do that and Their offensive expectations just went down because they did lose a decently key member of this offense so Tampa Bay at 16 to 1 to score the fewest points in football this year I think is really really fun. Obviously god and the evans do impact this market, but Maybe they decide to go Kyle Trask tear things down and try to rebuild a quarterback room That is absolutely the worst in football as of right now I would not be shocked if that's the route. They do mind of taking I do not think in any world the buccaneers should have longer odds in this market than the broncos the rams Honestly even like the bears and commanders. I don't think it should be longer than any of those teams So to me if you want an actionable potential bet based on The nfl news we have seen across this week I think the biggest one is betting the buccaneers 16 to 1 to have the lowest scoring offense in the nfl for 2023 Finally the finishing is up here with Anthony Richardson. The Colts officially did name him the starter for this week And I'd baked in that as the expectation from the start to have like a possibility was Garderman shoe about 10 percent But if we put Richardson in there as full starter Their projected rushing efficiency is very very high because it's a rushing quarterback who boosts that himself But also he opens more lanes for other guys within the offense and that does matter quite a bit Now obviously jonathan taylor If he can't go or if he decides not to go that would impact things here in a negative sense as well Taylor left the facility last night. It sounds like that was more for a personal matter and not due to his contract. Maybe I'm naive um, but It sounds like We're potentially trending towards a resolution there at some point Obviously rushing efficiency does not matter as much as passing efficiency But it is still in the model for sure, especially if you're going to be a run heavy team You want them to be better running the football? I do saw the Colts Uh, pretty even with their win total at 6.6 wins. I don't think they'll be a great offense I think it'll be fun to watch because Richardson is is exciting It's not sure how good it'll be right now, but they might not score a ton now They play indoors, which is why I'm not super intrigued in Checking out them in the lowest scoring offense market as we discussed the Tampa Bay Richardson knows plus 150 to an offensive rookie of the year For a quarterback who is now confirmed as a starter. It's not a bad number Bryce young 4 to 1 bijan Robinson 3 to 1 Richardson will get attention because he's going to have some highlights He'll put up really good rushing numbers and he plays indoors as mentioned If I were looking at this market the rookie of the year market I would lean towards CJ Stroud at 9 to 1 is being the better bet because He has a better offensive line than Richardson has right now His pass catchers are at least interesting is what I would say He's also playing indoors against a Not elite defensive division So Richardson is a consideration at 750, but I do think that Stroud is a better option at 9 to 1 With where things currently stand We'll talk some NFL again next week JJ Zachary is going to be on the podcast next week talk some Season long player props and break down his thoughts on those markets He's been fantastic at pinpointing good value there in the past looking forward to talking to JJ Once again next week for this week though Let's transition now and talk some NASCAR for this week because NASCAR The cup series and Xfinity series are both in Watkins Glen and the Finger Lakes in central New York It's the second to last race before the playoffs and chase Elliott is Desperately in need of a win almost got it last week Michael McDowell held him off and you got the narrative here with Elliott But also it's his best track and a track where my model adores chase Elliott I have chase Elliott at 18.7 to win That is a very big number for a cup series race given how competitive those races are right now But he's plus 350 at faddle faddle knows chase Elliott's good faddle knows chase Elliott needs to win So we're not going to catch them sleeping here. It's implied odds are 22.2 percent. So I cannot bet chase at plus 350 I did bet him personally early this week at five to one elsewhere but plus 350 too short for me and there's not much outright value elsewhere on the board because Both chase Elliott and Kyle Larson are very high in my model But not not high enough to be values and cells at plus 350 and five to one respectively So Outrights to me right now are a stay away. There is some value in the top 10 market though So let's talk about that first There are two bets that like in the top 10 market with where things currently stand at faddle sportsbook And those are in ross chastain a plus 195 and austin dillon at six two-inch are both available right now over at faddle sportsbook chastain Was plus 230 yesterday I'm still showing value with him now after shortening to plus 195 the new implied odds there are 33.9 percent My model is chastain at 39.7 percent to win And I understand why the market is low on chastain because his form recently has been awful both on road courses and non-road course last week At indy He was not super competitive even though he had two teammates finish inside the top 10 Obviously his teammate won at chicago as well So trackhouse has been good chastain is not With that said his form turned down at darlington That was kind of after that race is where things really started to get pretty bad He did still finish top 10 in sonoma So that was encouraging and again, even though he's been outrun by his teammates This is encouraging to me at least a trackhouse has had good speed in each of the past few road courses So we don't need chastain to win. We don't need to have a ton of upside to catch this ticket He could do that because he is generally a good driver in good equipment but I think that Having the flexibility of having him finish, you know in the back half of the top 10 to me is reassuring There are also fewer ringers this week. I think that taking out shane van gisburgen That does actually impact top 10 markets because it's one less Very viable driver to contend for that. So that benefits chastain as well So I think with where things stand right now Unless you think chastain is totally broken as a driver to me plus 195 Very good market to get him in Other one has mentioned is austin dillon. He is currently six to one to finish top 10 at fandall sportsbook and he's not a great driver on road courses, but he's been a lot better recently and He can get good finishes because he does tend to finish now This year's a bit different his best finish this year is 16th on a road course But two of those were because of rex. He wrecked a kota and wrecked at chicago He wrecked in chicago while running third, but that was due to strategy. So Overall this year. It's not been the best for dillon on road courses The speed has still been somewhat good especially last week. He had a 15th place average running position in that race He's had a mark of 17th or better in two straight races at walkins glenn and if you look at dillon overall during the next gen era He has a 20 top 10 rate on road courses In this span the implied odds here are 14.3 percent. I've got dillon 18 percent for a top 10 so Dillon at plus 600 and chastain a plus 195 are the top two bets I like right now for the cup series at walkins glenn On the extended series side of things we have both kyle bush and ty gibbs in the field and also hoax bowman bowman's driving a Hendrick Exfinity car which I assume is basically a junior motorsports car Which means very good equipment We've seen the Hendrick cars on road courses run very very well in the past So you really got three guys three super star bangers in this field between bush gibbs and bowman My model does like bowman a lot It's not quite as high on him as the market The downside of that is that if we're going to bet anyone else to win this race We need to make sure they've got the upside to beat some really really good drivers and That's scary for sure The one guy I do like most to do this is austin hill He is currently 22 to 1 to win at vandal sports book And I do show value at that number and I find hill very intriguing as a somewhat long shot here Hill has been lurking the entire year on road course. It's actually the entire two years Ever since he joined the Exfinity series. He's been very good at road courses He had an issue at kota But since then his finishes in road courses have been fifth eighth fifth third and fourth That fourth place run last week came behind ty gibbs a j alman dinger and sam mayer mayer won a road america Dinger and gibbs tremendous road course racers So basically we need some chaos, but if we do get any kind of chaos, especially with uh gibbs bush and bowman We would see I think hill in the mix for a win He did this last year too finished top five basically whenever he didn't wreck on a road course He hasn't shown that in the upside markets yet But the markets reflect that at 22 to 1 to win this race As a plot odds winner 4.3 percent I think that's underestimating him a bit and it's fully accounting for the fact that there are other Really good drivers in this field. I got hill a decent amount above that It could be because I'm underestimating bush and gibbs And I think that's a very fair critique and a very fair potential downside here But hill is a good road racer. He's in good equipment. Which does matter at walkins gland If you can get it to finish top five, I have his odds there 41 He's a pretty good value in that market at other books, but I don't mind the upside play Giving that a look at fandal with him being 22 to 1 to win Obviously again, it does require A really good race from hill to beat those kind of guys But I think that he's capable of it and I would not be shocked if he wins a road course race Whether it be here or the starlet road course to close out the year Especially the starlet road course where there won't be any cup drivers I think hill there could be very very fun. So hill to me 22 to 1 my fair bad for xfinity for this week That's all we got here for today on covering the spread back once again tomorrow with with some more baseball to close out the week No pitching ninjas. He's traveling this week But we'll be back with some more baseball regardless for tomorrow to get that as it is posted Make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast if you like what you hear Leave us a five star rating on apple podcast or Spotify If you've got any questions for me, I am on twitter at gymsonus j i m s a n n e s You can also follow fandal research at fandal research Want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your bets across thursday We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to close out this week This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network