 What's up, everybody? Ricky Caruthier. And today I want to get into the market this week. We're in critical when it comes to the real estate market, especially when it comes to first-time homebuyers. This is the area of first-time homebuyers that I really feel bad for, honestly. Affordability is not really getting much better. And we see some serious price increases in the near future just based on the data that we're looking at with inflation numbers, where we think mortgage rates are going to go, so on and so forth. And to this video, I want to predict to you exactly what month this year that I believe that we're going to go positive year-over-year home prices compared to last year. So we went negative back in February, but I believe we're going to go positive this year pretty soon. And it's just going to go up from there. So I'll show you the chart that I'm looking at and walk you through exactly what I'm thinking here, just so you can have a really good idea. But yeah, if you own property, you're going to be in amazing shape. If you are sitting on the sidelines waiting to buy a house, I don't think it's going to end too well for you. You're sitting around waiting on mortgage rates to come down, which they will. And then you're going to get slammed with home prices and a lot of competition. So let's dive into all that right this second. Before I do, I don't know if you guys realize, I wrote a book back in 2017. It's called List to Last, How to Survive Every Real Estate Market Crash. And I literally went through everything I learned through the 2008 crash, losing everything, coming back and becoming the number one remax agent in the state of Alabama. Comment below right now for a chance to win a signed copy of the book. And I love giving that book away. I love hearing you guys' reviews on the book, so on and so forth. Let's look at the inflation number here. So the headline inflation number came to 4.9 in April. It was 5% last month. And so that was a, let's just say it's coming down, but really slowly. There were some sectors in the inflation numbers that weren't so great. And there were some sectors that were okay. Nothing was really like amazing. We're headed in the right direction, but we're still going to have some rocky reports. We were hoping that this wouldn't be a little better, but it did come in pretty much at expectations. And so, you know, this is going to do, you know, I mean, what it's going to do is, is it's going to, we're going to see around the rates that we see now, I think, for a little while longer, maybe another month or two, something like that. We're going to have to see some better inflation numbers before we start to see mortgage rates come down. Okay. But this was the National Association of Realtors' Instant Reaction. Inflation falls below 5%. Mortgage rates move lower this week. Of course, they're up right now. They're at 6.55, which is up for the day. They've been kind of moving down, but 6.55 last time I looked. But here's how they reacted. While fast-rising rent prices remain the largest contributor to elevated inflation, it appears that the CPI rent growth has peaked and started to cool. So they're saying that rents going up so fast has really, you know, got in there and messed with the numbers a little bit. Simply put, rent prices continue to be higher than a year ago, but are increasing more slowly than they did. So they're starting to slow down with this decelerating rent price trend to persist in upcoming months. Following the trend of asking, rent prices reported by the private sector, inflation will slow down even further, pulling mortgage rates down. This could bring some signs of relief to many buyers. With a 6% mortgage rate, more Americans can afford purchase to purchase medium home priced houses, putting down less than 20%. See, this is the thing. I don't necessarily think that lower rates are going to be great for first time home buyers. Because what it's going to do is it's going to create this rush unlike anything that we've ever seen. That's what I want you to understand. It's going to be great. It's going to be great for homeowners who own properties. If you own a house, it's going to be awesome. You're going to see the value of your home go up. If you're a real estate agent, you're going to see a lot of activity. If you're representing the buyers, it's going to be really tough because you're going to be competing against a lot of offers. But if you're a listing agent, you're going to be in pretty good shape. There's going to be buyers who win some of the bidding wars. So you're going to be in good shape as well. I think if you own real estate, if you're in real estate, you're going to do quite well. If you're a buyer waiting on the sidelines to buy a house and you're waiting for rates to go down, you're going to again get slammed with the situation of higher prices and a lot of competition. Now, it's also lower rates are also in our said that when we get to 6%, that's going to open up the gates to 3 million more buyers who are sitting on the sideline. I think that number is a little low, honestly. Just gut feeling. No data to support that. But as we move forward here and we start to see these lower rates over the next couple of months, and we do open up Pandora's box there, and we see the crack and be released, I don't think first time home buyers are going to be happy that they waited. I think now is the perfect time if you're a first time home buyer to get out there and buy a house. The realtor.com here says, good news for home buyers. Mortgage rates are posed to fall. Mortgage rates may be coming down. What they're insinuating is that the feds aren't going to raise rates nor are they going to cut rates in their next meeting, which inflation doesn't directly influence mortgage rates, but they're both mortgage rates and the Fed rate are kind of directly influenced by inflation. So that's what they're trying to combat. So listen, home prices, right? This is what we're talking about here. And I'm going to tell you exactly what month I believe the home prices are going to see that positive year over year number later this year. So keep watching. But home prices are back on the rise as spring market proves more competitive than expected. Home prices in March rose for the third consecutive month on a seasonal adjusted basis. New listings are 30% lower than pre-pandemic. 30% lower. Nearly half of the homes in the market are selling within two weeks. Okay? Half the houses on the market are selling within two weeks. Now, here is Redfin and here's prices. Now, look at this. Okay? Pay close attention to this. You've got 2020 at the bottom. You've got 2022 here. Okay? This is medium sales prices of homes. Here's 2022, the Red. So 2022 comes here. It does this normal thing that it does every year, kind of dips down. And then we have that spike, the same spike that we saw every year. And then it peaked out around June. Okay? And that's when mortgage rates started to really affect the market. And we see the number, we'll see prices start to come down quite a bit and basically end up the year pretty close to even. Then we start out the year pretty close to even. We finally dip negative year over year right here about February. And but look here. Look at from when we hit bottom how far we are up from the bottom. Look at that. Here's where we started. Okay? A little under 350 and now we're at 370 medium home prices. This is national numbers. You should all look in your local market to see real numbers. But what I believe is going to happen here is that this, this line continues here. It's not, I don't see it dipping with the fact that mortgage rates are going to start having some downward pressure and there's no inventory. I don't see prices going down. If nothing else, they stay the same. Maybe they go, maybe they go up between here and here. But all they have to do is come right here and cross this red line. That's all they have to do is come right here and cross this red line and then we're positive year over year. Well, I think that's going to happen somewhere in this range right here as it, as 2023 hits this brick wall right here. You see, this is a brick wall right here. And as, as we go through and just pound right through that brick wall, that's going to be about July. So I think we're going to see positive year over year home prices in the US in July, if not sooner. Okay. If we don't see a spike, if we don't see a spike in prices. So that's what I'm looking at. I mean, the numbers are right here. And that's very interesting to think about how we may go positive year over year through all this, through all this. And you know, there's so many YouTubers out there that aren't even talking about this. They're not even talking about prices are up so much from the bottom, which was February, just about every market were up. All they talk about is negative year over year numbers and how bad things are. And I agree. For first time home buyers, it doesn't look very good. If you don't own a home and you're not gaining the equity that's, that's happening in the market right now, that's not a good thing. You're waiting on the sidelines for better interest rates. I don't think that's the best play. I'm going to tell you what I'm doing. I'm going to tell you what I'm doing to take advantage of this in just a second. And I think you should be doing the same thing. But here we are. And Redfin came out. Housing market update. It's hot and it's cold. Limited listings leaked a few but fast home sales. What they're saying is, is that interest rates and, you know, people hanging on to their houses, builders being down is messing with inventory. And because inventory is down, there's fewer sales, but the houses that do sell sell very fast. Half the sales right now are selling within two weeks. There's a smaller pool of buyers because of interest rates. A lot of buyers are on the sidelines, but the, the fewer pool of buyers are incredibly serious about buying, right? They're buying quick and there's still multiple offers happening out there. So the perfect storm, right? I've went through this with you on a, on an earlier video. I'll touch on it here. 98% of millennials, according to Zonda, want to be home owners, okay? The average age of a first-time home buyer is 33 to 36. 33 in 2021, 36 last year, right? Back in 1990, we see right here a massive, massive spike in births that continues for 16 years. We have more 33-year-olds right now than we've ever seen in our entire existence. 27% of sales last month were first-time home buyers. That number is going to increase as mortgage rates decline and look at where we are inventory-wise. The blue line is 2021, okay? 2021, the year of the boom, 6 million transactions, everything going for more than 100,000 over asking price. We are lower right now than we were in 2021 inventory-wise. And look how far we are from 2020, but, but we're lower and you see what we're fixing to do. We're fixing to intersect 2022 right here at where we are just a few weeks away from intersecting 2022 and being at basically an all-time low, an all-time low when it comes to inventory. Think about that for a second. And of course, this is already happening. Here's a real estate agent in Atlanta listed two homes. He showed them 88 times and got 12 offers. He didn't even have his sign in the ground. Okay? He didn't even have his sign in the ground. It's just, it's just crazy, right? Comment below if you're getting multiple offers in your market. And this is appreciation from 1942 till the present year. And you can see the green indicates positive years and the red indicates the negative years. You can see we had a five double-digit run-up in the 40s. People thought it was going to crash. It didn't. It kept going up. We had basically six great years of appreciation in the mid-70s that led to the high inflation and everything else. People thought it was going to crash. It didn't. It kept going up quite a bit. It kept going up. And in the early 2000s, we had the run-up that led to the 2008 disaster and the subprime mortgage meltdown. That was when things went down for the first, for the only time in the last, you know, 100 years. And here in the past, this last run-up has been just a two-year double-digit run-up. And of course, we had a positive year last year. We're going to have a positive year this year. And so what should you be doing right now to take advantage of this? What should you be doing right now? You should be doing the same thing I'm doing. I'm buying every house I find. I've got four, really three. I closed on one yesterday. I've got, I just bought one yesterday. I've got three more pending right now to buy as rental properties. Single-family homes. Two are new construction homes by D.R. Horton. They're on the lake and a fairly nice subdivision. Really good location. Got those for in the low 300s. And then I bought two other ones that were built around 2000s, smaller, older homes in the 250s range. So I got one for 234 and the other for 265. So listen, anything around 300 in my area that I know very well that already own 30 different doors in. I'm already managing properties. I'm buying every house I can find that, that I feel like is, because in five years from now, even if rent increase is just 3% a year, which is very conservative, I can only imagine what the returns on today's home prices are in even just five years at 3% increase of rents per year. It's going to be insane. The returns are going to be amazing. I'm also still looking at multifamily all over the country. So as you guys know, I'm still on my mission here to buy and hold real estate and also to buy 100 million in 2023. You can deal me here at Ricky Caruth on Instagram. If you have any multifamily deals or if you want to invest with me on multifamily deals, but that market, the multifamily market is, man, it's a completely different animal. Residential, great. We have a really good handle of what's going on in the residential market. Commercial, not so much. There's a lot of loans out there that are coming to come and mature, you know, the next, this year, next year, even the year after. That's going to be interesting to see how those deals play out. Now, I don't think it's going to crash and burn like a lot of people think because rents are incredibly high, but we are seeing some really, really massive deals happening on the commercial side, on the multifamily side, and I think we're going to continue to see some deals on the multifamily side. So we've made a couple offers, but we haven't actually purchased a big multifamily yet. We looked at one that was 30 units today we like that we're going to write an LOI on and just see if we can get that. We are writing offers. We are underwriting deals, you know, and we're just kind of being patient with it because we know that deals are going to start happening and we're going to be right there to catch them when they do start dropping. So you need to be buying real estate and you need to tell your clients, hey, listen, you want to go buy single family? You want to buy residential? Now is the time to go do so because when this thing flips and mortgage rates start to ease down, it doesn't take a rocket science to see what's going to happen when there's more pent up demand that we've ever seen in history and the lowest amount of inventory that we've ever seen in history. So with that, I hope you guys enjoyed this video. Let me know if you have any questions at all in the comments and I'll see you on the next video.