 Good afternoon, good morning, or good evening, even, depending on where you are. Welcome to another live analysis session with me, Patrick Munn-Lew. If you could just type a Y in the chat box if you can see the Tick-Mill welcome screen and you can hear my audio clearly. Good stuff, thank you. Okay, let's just get going here then. First and foremost, obviously, I want to pay attention, as always, to the risk disclaimer. As we know, trading any financial instrument has a high level of risk attached to it. Equally important is that any of the views expressed here today are mine and they are not representative of investment advice and or the views held by Tick-Mill. Before we jump into today's discussion, just a brief overview of my background for those who are joining us for the first time today. After graduating, I went into consulting in London, then moved out of the comforts of a public limited company and did a start-up, a consulting start-up that experienced some pretty rapid growth. After four or five years, I cashed in my stake in that business via a merger and then I went on to explore my passion for markets. I had some time on my hands and some chips to play with and started to meddle, really, in the markets, specifically day trading, the S&P 500. Market was predominantly trending north. I experienced some initial gains and then really made some quite substantial gains. But as it is often the case with the beginner's luck, it ran out and I ultimately gave back all the gains and then some to the point that I experienced a six-figure loss, which, whilst devastating, certainly, it fortunately wasn't terminal. And so I had to step back from what I was doing and reconsider how I was going to approach the markets. And I had to get serious about it as a commercial endeavour. And as such, I sought out a mentor who demonstrated excellence in the field of trading. I worked with him for 18 months to two years and basically set about developing my mental skills and also my mental skills, most importantly, but also enhance my technical understanding and then developed a trading plan, a business plan, extensively back-tested and forward-tested and ultimately came back to the markets in 2008 in an environment not dissimilar to what we've witnessed over the past few weeks. And since then, on an annual basis, I've managed to deliver consistently profitable returns. And I refer to the annual returns as really there, the metric that I pay most attention to on the screen. My monthly performance, the reason it starts from 2013, is that that was when I started my managed account service, started with friends and family and it's grown organically from there to now being a multi-million-dollar portfolio. And like I say, my focus is on my annual returns. I'm not concerned about the outcome of the next trade or the next string of trades, really. It's about the next hundred trades for me because I know that if I appear to my trading plan and execute that plan with excellence, then that will deliver my edge. My edge will demonstrate itself over that time and that's what it's proven to do consistently. So for me, trading is really about being laser-focused on the process and not being concerned by the outcomes. Most of my trading now is an end-of-day activity for me and the majority of the trade management is automated. So I have a bunch of time in my hands. I still want to keep my finger on the pulse of the markets and so I have two, a couple of other additional projects that I'm involved in. One is I'm the resident market expert obviously for Tick Mill. I provide daily market analysis and trade setups that I'm tracking. You can subscribe to that through the Tick Mill blog site and I'm also the head of trading and trader education at a firm called FX Career Swap. This is a project we started last year designed to really help emerging retail trading talent overcome what is the biggest hurdle that any retail trader actually faces. And once you've got a level of education and you have a proven strategy in place, the big problem that retail trading is face is capitalization because you can have an excellent plan and you can execute that plan and if you're adhering to professional risk management standards and if you're returning let's say somewhere between 30 and 50% a year which is certainly a solid and significant gains, then if you're only trading a thousand pound account, that's not going to move the needle in terms of financial return. And so what happens with retail traders is they experience some success with their strategy but they get frustrated by the lack of financial gain and ultimately end up over stretching with respect to their trade size and they experience what is a normal draw down but because they've over leveraged or the position size is too big it ultimately wipes out their accounts. And so what we're looking to do with FX Career Swap is support you through the learning process and demonstrate proven strategies to you that you can then implement yourself or combinations of but ultimately what it leads to is a funded account that you have the ability to grow over time with those professional risk management metrics in place. So if you're interested in learning more about that you can contact me through LinkedIn or you can reach out to the guys through the website FXcareerswap.com Right moving on to today's discussion. A couple of things I want to talk about before I jump into some charts. One is this idea of month-end flows for those who are less experienced in the market it's a market phenomenon that you might not be aware of but it's certainly one that impacts the market. On the screen here you can see a couple of notes that I've shared with my FX Career Swap trading team around this month-end flow and particularly in the idea of the month-end rebalancing which is basically related to large portfolio managers having to rebalance their portfolios depending upon the equity performance. And so we have obviously seen a significant rise in US equities from that March low and that's created a signal that comes well above the historical standard deviations for these month-end signals and what it represents today is a very strong US dollar self-signal and we're seeing the dollar under some pressure at the moment but watch it this afternoon once we get through the ECB meeting you certainly want to, if you've got positions on make sure you've got your stops in place around 4pm UK time because that's when we often see this significant volatility based around these month-end flows and we're often the knot we can see some very sharp moves that equally more often than not tend to be quickly reversed but certainly you want to be cognizant of these flow dynamics as we head into the 4 o'clock hour today in the UK. So we're seeing a very strong US dollar self-signal by US investors on foreign assets. So that's a flow dynamic I just wanted to alert you to for today. Next dynamic I want to make you aware of and for those who have been joining these sessions regularly you'll be aware that I pay attention to or certainly I want to be cognizant of the seasonal flows in markets and seasonal trends and what we note now coming into May is that the dollar tends to have a significant outperformance actually over the past 10 years May has been the best month of the year for the dollar and equally the worst for the Australian dollar the British pound, the Euro the New Zealand dollar so I want to be paying attention to this idea especially as we've seen the dollar have tracked lower during April as is the case as the dollar historically over the past 10 years tends to perform pretty badly during April I'm certainly going to be paying attention to these to these currencies now as we go into May if I get self-signals from my strategy then I'm probably going to look to try and ride these trades to try and take advantage of the potential seasonal impact as well of the flows in the market so dollar index is as you know over the longer term horizon from my perspective likely to demonstrate some weakness based upon the huge amount of liquidity that's being provided to the markets through the fares I won't bore you again with all the charts but this represents this chart here shows you the significant amount of dollar liquidity that's being provided and the likelihood that through this lack period at the moment we ultimately should see dollar weakness and this is the the bigger term cycles that we see in terms of the dollar and you can see that we are stretched to the upside at the moment from a cycle perspective Goldman Sachs 16 year cycles also highlights the potential that we could be in for a turn in the dollar that said if we look at now the most recent CFTC positioning data we can also see that there has been a turn in dollar positioning from the CFTC report whilst this initial term has occurred and the aggregate is a bearish it's certainly not at this stage considered to be in the extreme so what this would suggest to me the data that I'm seeing here is that the dollar the dollar move is in the offering that people are putting positions in play for a broader move that doesn't necessarily mean that we're going to witness the turn straight away often times what we'll see is when positioning starts to flip from being bullish to bearish in this instance with the with the dollar we often see a position shake out before we see the real move and what I meant at this stage is we could see that shake out come during May because we have that seasonal trend that we've bought from the seasonality perspective and we've just got these nascent dollar short positions in play so what more often than not what we see is a squeeze of those before then we see a more sustained move so let's jump into some of the charts now what I want to do first of all today is look at the monthly charts as we're coming into month end it's always good to pay attention often retail traders fail to be cognizant of these higher time frames and certainly these higher time frame charts give the perspective of where the bigger moves are likely to come in the market and so from this dollar index we are testing again the trend line and depending upon where we close today and factoring in the month end flow dynamic we could reasonably expect the potential for a week close here that's going to see a double rejection of this trend line that's been in play as well as a double top here at the 161 extension of this structure here from the lows of this cycle so again we're trading at a pivotal level here for the dollar and we look to be on track for a week close here today now because we're looking at the monthly chart here that doesn't mean we can't see some back and filling again during May with the dollar in terms of some strength but ultimately the higher time frame here is suggesting that we can see some sustained weakness in the dollar index and as many of you know I'm looking for a move certainly back into these low 90s to play out in time as that liquidity issue starts to take hold and we see a real shift in terms of positioning let's check in with Gold here Gold testing the 78.6% retracement of the of the 2011 down to 2015 lows we're struggling to get a close above there we'll see today if we do get a close through there then the ultimate objective will be a retest of these 2011 highs but at this stage we're finding resistance at the 78.6% retracement but I'll look shortly I'll show you the daily chart there and look at the actual structure I'm watching Euro obviously creates the inverse to the dollar index and so we're at this major trend line support again and it looks like at the moment that we're going to potentially hold this obviously we've got the ECB I've just released their interest rates and their deposit rates unchanged so if the Euro can defend this trend line again and we've also got the Euro at the equality objective from the Euro 160 into the initial reaction low at June 2010 and then the pullback and so we've got this equality objective that continues to find or attract support at this 107.55 area so again if we're thinking in terms of the dollar index rolling over again certainly want to be paying attention to the close here in the Euro closed back above 110 would be a bullish reversal on the month and so I want to pay attention at that 4 p.m. and then at the New York close tonight to see what this candle looks like but certainly again similar to the idea of the dollar index demonstrating some strength during May we can back and fill here but we're holding this trend line the bias is going to be for a move to the upside sterling similar story we've had multiple tests now at this 119, 120 area and it's attracted buyers and we're holding that trend line support on a closing basis so if we can take out this descending trend line here then there's plenty of scope for upside in terms of sterling so we'll see where we close there. Dolly Yen Dolly Yen it's still in terms of the the bigger picture cycle we have a target down here at 92, 20 we can see this is a standard pitchfork here we have held that 100 level support time and time again but you can see these monthly candles here and these tails rejecting that 112 area looks like we're probably going to close pretty bearish here in terms of the Yen so again on the trading time frame for me the trading time frame is the daily chart we can see back and filling but the ultimate trend at this stage should be lower in the Dolly Yen obviously you've seen another major reversal from that 78.6 61 handle and whilst again when I move on to the daily chart the Aussie is a setup that I'm watching very closely for a trading position in terms of playing it from the short side in the near term but certainly the bigger picture here at the moment is starting to look pretty constructive for the Aussie as we defend this 60 handle and in time and again if we factor in what we believe is going to happen to the dollar in the dollar index then we should see higher prices in the Aussie over the coming months the Dolly the gloony has basically topped out that 78.6 retracement as well double top key reversal on the monthly here you can see that we failed to get a close above above this 140-75 area and so whilst that continues to be the key line in the sand on a monthly basis then we can expect a significant correction to occur here and if we bring in this trend line so we can be back to our testing 135 or even the trend line support into the 130 area again over the coming months I really anticipate that even though we get a very weak close here that we'll see some back and filling before we get the big move down the Swissie continues to trade in a pretty well defined range really the 91 to parity level and not really a whole bunch of action in there obviously you've got the Swiss National Bank heavily involved in terms of defending the Swissie but note the tails here that we're seeing at this 98 area that on a closing basis we're certainly rejecting higher prices at the moment and anticipate we could trade lower and show you a setup that I'm currently in actually in the Swissie Kiwi defending this trend line on a closing basis now looking at bullish reversal here in the Kiwi and certainly again expect some back and filling but whilst we hold this 5960 area again we can expect higher prices in the Kiwi over coming months the S&P has obviously staged a huge reversal didn't take out the bullish trend line from the 2009 lows but again whilst certainly we've seen some significant strength I see opportunities on the short side on a tactical basis in terms of the S&P that we'll look at in a minute crude oil tested the major equidistance swing objective at zero we actually traded negative obviously in the futures but again we've seen pretty sharp reversal here in crude oil and certainly now in terms of these economies being brought back online there is the potential that we see some sustained upside in crude oil as we moved into this phased reopening of economies around the world so that's going to be a story that's going to drive the potential for crude oil demand one last one I want to take a look at is the Singapore Dollar we again can't get a close above this 142 handle and this one started starting to look bearish so I actually posted this on the TICMNL blog earlier this week as a set up that looks to be working again we can back and fill here but ultimately the direction of travel looks to be to the downside in the Singapore Dollar so those are the big picture perspective and so the key takeaway from that is that I'm anticipating the potential for dollar weakness over the coming months but certainly from a tactical trading perspective I'm seeing opportunities to buy some dollars to be long dollars at the moment one of the key charts I'm watching is this Australian Dollar we have a target on the Australian Dollar an equality target versus this swing low at the 6618 area and we have some further equality into this area we also have if we look at the fibro tracement from the high here we have the 78.6% of the tracement so if we can get a pop here up into this 6650, 67 handle and I'm certainly going to be watching for bearish reversal patterns starting to build in some divergence here in terms of the momentum studies as well so really paying close attention to any move towards the 67 handle and I'll be watching for a reversal as per the strategy to get in on the short side of the target so it's perfectly reasonable to expect a 50% tracement so back into that 61 area that I just referenced on the monthly timeframe so we could still get a pullback like this from trading perspective and certainly tick all the boxes in terms of risk-reward and even then it's still bullish because I mean that decline plays out during May and we know that it's likely to experience some strength during May then it sets up the next leg higher in terms of the opportunity to play in on that longer term dollar weakness story so even though this tactically is a great trade set up and one I'm going to be monitoring it still leaves us with the potential then to join into that dollar weakness story at better prices so this is one that I'm certainly paying attention to the Euro I'm currently long the Euro versus a signal that I got down here we also had multiple confirmations with one of our strategies the pinball continuation strategy on the weekly we got a signal and I've been playing that in and out of the market so trading around was long the Australian dollar close that out this week and now I've still got the Euro part of that trade working and I'm long and what I'm looking for here is let me just remove if we first area that I'm watching for a test of is the symmetry swing objective at this 109.50 so again I want to pay close attention as we trade into this area we're likely to be moving into the resistance bands the the resistance area and we got the monthly VWAP here all of this 109.50 to 110 area so I'll be watching how price responds here because as we know we may see another bout of dollar strength which could still have us trade lower and retest this price support the 106.30 area at the moment I'm long and looking for a test of that 109.50 and then we'll see how price responds here as to whether or not I'll be looking at reversing that position now if we take out the 110 on a closing basis then we have other upside objectives we have this symmetry swing so this gives us a target up at this 112 and that's basically looking for an equality move from here versus what we saw in the late March run up in the Euro and again once we get into this area if we see it 112.50 then I'll be again watching the price action very closely because we could from there see a sell signal that would take us significantly lower but certainly looking for some strength here especially into today's close and we'll see where we can close obviously we've had the ECB decision out and the guard will be holding a press conference shortly so we'll see how this plays out but it's a risk-free trade for me now I've got some targets that I'm eyeing and I'll be watching for how the market responds as we trade this another one that I'm looking at is this Euro yen looking to see if we can get a close above this descending trend line here and I see an opportunity I posted this this is on the tip of the blog today you can read the thesis behind that but what I'm looking for would be an initial move to test the symmetry swing resistance at 118 and if we can get a close through there then we can see the next or the primary symmetry swing resistance up at 120 but to be honest with you, looking at the chart of the Euro yen at the moment I think we'll probably see some selling at this 118 and I think what we could do is actually trade down and make another low we'll see how price responds at that area but I think we could be looking to complete this cycle so if we trade up into here seller step in and we get a sell signal then we could see this move down into this 113 which is the 161 extension of this last move to the upside so paying attention to price action as we trade into these key areas the other trade that I've got on at the moment is the swissie so we we've taken out the major trend line that we've been running against we've got this reaction secondary lower high here in the swissie and that leaves a target open down at this 94 handle with this one is that the swiss national bank are pretty actively defending the euro swiss at the moment at the 105 handle but we're seeing some weakness today we'll see if this is going to roll over make new lows there are some big options structures in place down at 103 so we could have a battle on our hands there between the market and the SMB but we've got to stop now just above yesterday's high so risk award perspective this has always stacked up giving it a 4.79 I'm going to just see who knows maybe this reverses and we've stopped out and then we're looking at the next step in the swissie which for me would be a move into this big double top and descending trend line versus this broader channel the reason why I've put this one on is that we've taken out this trend line and we're also holding trend line resistance with the momentum study here so we'll see how this goes like I said not concerned the outcome of individual trades as such then the final one I want to take a look at today is these futures these S&Ps we're actually back up retesting the yearly pivot now from below we're seeing a bit of resistance here we've come a long way in a short period of time we're also trading into this trend line on the momentum study the psych indicator so if we're going to close back below 2890 today the near term VWAP we could be in for another correction here and as always we target the symmetry swing move so certainly this goes down to 2770 and then we'll see how the market plays it from here because ultimately and similar to the Aussie idea of that 161 extension and 78.6% fibro tracement we could see this type of move up here from this support area and again like the Aussie then we could see 50% of the tracement easily before potentially then who knows what the news flow is going to be obviously this Gilead trial has gone pretty well and that's did yesterday at least give the market some support but still see a big retracement here whether or not we're going to revisit these lows it's something we'll have to watch in time but certainly I'd be watching any close back below this 2890 would be concerning in the near term for balls and I think we could see a deeper decline back to this initially I'd be targeting move back to 2770 the symmetry swing support and see how we play it from there so those are some of the markets I'm watching and some of the opportunities and trades I'm in and my perspective certainly for this dollar as we head into the summer months are there any questions guys with respect to any of the charts or would anyone like to look at the charts that I haven't reviewed in this session you could just type the charts into the chat and I'll pull it up if you have a chart that you'd like me to take a look at if you don't have a question it would be helpful for me type an N in the chat box so that I know that one you're awake and two if I can wrap this wrap the session up here good stuff well thanks very much for your time today and I hope this has been helpful it's okay and I'll see you sometime next week