 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is having a great start to the weekend. Hope everybody is having a good time trading. Again, market is setting up really, really well. We'll talk about that in a second. Most important part is we are getting a lot of good signs of a really good end of the year rut. Now again, traditionally for all you guys have been trading for a long time, or even about two, three, even four years, this is kind of a sweet spot for the market for speculation money. Traditionally again, this is no guarantees, but traditionally this is the cycle of really good bullish market flow. You have the Halloween, right? You have the Halloween rally, then spilled over into the Thanksgiving rally, then spilled over into the Santa Claus rally. And then you have that January effect spilling over to the first quarter of the new year. Now again, is this a time of the year that is guaranteed to produce a rally? Absolutely not. I think a couple of years ago we had a very, very aggressive sell off towards end of the year and spilling over into the first quarter, but traditionally it is a very, very good time for equities. And again, we started getting some pretty good clues over the last week. Number one, again, we've been getting good data from the whole Chinese trade war little by little. We're getting little clues. Last weekend we had that news. Last Friday we had that news that they were initiating phase one of talks. Again, nothing materialistic, no concrete news, no details. But again, they are agreeing that they were going to sit down for another meeting. Okay, that's great. But more important, any negative headlines right now are starting to fade. Okay, and nobody's really dwelling on them headline for headline like they did for the last several months that every single time there was a hiccup from the other side of the aisle, whether it's the Chinese or the Americans. The market reacted very, very aggressively towards that direction. Now we're kind of like riding the ship. We're slowly but surely just kind of studying on materialistic news that has no facts, which is good. Because again, the market is getting numb to it. But now we are in earnings season. Okay. And the most important part of market structure is actually having companies trade on their own merits. So traditionally, if a company is good, the stock price is going to go higher. If the company is bad, they come out with bad earnings, well, the price is going to go lower. So at least we are standing on a catalyst and not moving up or down on same non-materialistic news and same non-materialistic facts that we've been hearing on and off now three, four, 12 times a week on a daily basis Chinese war on, trade towards war. So that's a good thing. Okay. Most important part is where we are technically. If you look at what the market did for the week, you can't really paint a picture of how good the price action was this week. And how good the money flow for speculation capital. Okay. Number one, we closed over this one 90 58 area, right? Everybody you see that this is the area we talked about for a weeks and weeks and weeks. And we closed above that level for several days. And we started building that was very, very important. Despite the market selling off pretty macro wise on Friday. Okay. The NASDAQ was down. You had the doubt that 245 points. If you see here, and this is guy again with the basic point of technical analysis is there's nothing random. If you see where the NASDAQ 100 stop where the cues, they stopped right at where the breakout started and bounce again. There's nothing random about technical analysis. So again, please save your opinions. Again, stocks are either going to trade technically and trade organically or they're not. Okay. You don't need to give an opinion. It's all right in there in front of you in the charts. It's very, very important. I think the most important part of what we saw today was and again, I'm not a small cat trader. Okay. I was one about eight, nine years ago. I used to swing trade them. I used to have a big book and I used to swing trade them. And again, once all these alert services started popping up and 3000 people started buying the same stock. That died for me. Okay, that died. I switched the pittots and the rest is history, but I'm not a small cat trader. I haven't been one for years. But what I like what I saw today, and it kind of gives me kind of some good light on what's going to happen next is a lot of these small-cap stocks, they woke up aggressively this week. Okay. And you don't need to trade them to kind of your own social media. You kind of see all these stocks just going absolutely nuts. SES, BIMI. And again, this is like 20 other, this is like 20 other ones. But again, there is a point to this. Okay, this all this crap. Okay. And this is crap, right? This is crap. But again, this is your thing. This is your thing. It's not a testament if you should trade them or not. But the point is the fact that these stocks were able to go up 200, 300, 400% in a day, that is called speculation money. Okay. The market is fueled by speculation money. So when you look at a Tesla, a Netflix, an Amazon, all the things that I trade all the time, there is nothing more aggressive than somebody's willing to pay 400% for a stock that's up in the day. Okay. It's just the most important part. And if you look at that, and if you look at that, and it's correlating into the market where we are about to enter the sweet spot into the traditional fourth quarter speculation money, all that adds up into a potential really, really good market. Is anything guaranteed? Absolutely not. But again, these are things that over the years, you collect the data, right? We always talk about collecting data. And the most important part is mentally having an opinion now of what's going to happen next. Now, despite the indexes, I think the Dow is down like 2% and you had a half percent rise on both the Nasdaq 100 and S&P, but despite the very, very flat action of the indexes this week. And again, if you traded this week, if you're an active trader, it was an incredibly aggressive week. Same culprits, right? Same culprits. Again, we're kind of removing the small cap area out of this focus. But if you look at the same stocks, and again, I pretty much trade the same names over and over and over again, you can see how good the measure potential was on the beta names this week. You had Roku, which is an absolute monster, not only on the way up, but on the way down. We'll talk about that in a second. Netflix, really, really good opportunities on the day they announced earnings. And then the following day, which was Friday, continuation move from Friday's sell-off, Tesla was a monster a whole week to the upside. And then Friday gave a really, really aggressive pivot to the downside. And the most important part is they are all measured potential. And again, I know a lot of you, especially newer option traders, I'm not an options trader, but again, I do know measure potential. The most sweet spot for these things are towards the end of the week. And if you saw the moves on Friday, the Netflix monster washout, the BYND monster move down, the Roku complete monster flush, you'll realize the biggest measure potential is always towards the end of the week, especially on Friday. Again, speculation money is coming into the arena. You saw Amazon, when the stock was at $1777, I tweeted this out, $1.4 million bet on the November 1750 puts. I mean, from that bet, the stock literally went down about the 2022 points in about an hour, so you're getting good measure potential. So if you are a brand new options trader, and again, I can't tell you how to facilitate your trade. But again, if you are talking about measure potential, that's the time to put on your bets. Towards the end of the week, Thursday, especially Friday, when the big, big aggressive measure moves occur, and that's when you get the most aggressive volume bets, money flow bets in the options market on those weekly. So that Friday could be a really, really good spot for you. So going into this week, again, the market is good until it's not. And again, I know it's a very, very kind of weird statement. But again, until we get any type of any type of other evidence to suggest that back tests are just the occurrence of a very, very big aggressive move up, and we have a seasonality of strength in our future, then you have to give the benefit to the bulls. And again, as long as we stay above this range here, right, as long as we stay above this one 90 fifties level close bases on the QQQs, you have to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt. Again, don't talk about opinions. Don't talk about what you think is going to happen in three months from now in a certain stock. Nobody cares about that technical analysis is the most purest thing you're ever going to meet. If you don't like something that somebody says you have three choices, okay, you could either be quiet, okay, you could either talk out of your ass, okay, or you can take the other side of the trade. Okay, but again, I said this all the time, if you are one of these stubborn traders and you're fighting price action, okay, taking the latter, right, the other side of the trade of price action, well, you're going to be in God's hands. And the most important part is when you are trading, you're trading price action, I don't care if it's long, short and different delta neutral, whatever the case may be, price action is much smarter than you. It's much wealthier than you and price action doesn't care about your opinion. So stop focusing on being right and being profitable. Going to this week, I am bullish until it's not. I believe if we stay above 90 58, we're going to start rallying the big macro key level going into this area. A close above 94 71 is super important. That is the area from September the 12th. Obviously that's going to be bullish and any close and again, this is where we don't trade from rose colored glasses, we trade from technical analysis. If the market closes above one 94 71 and the cues super bullish, if we close below this range that took quite a while to get through, if we close below that one 90 50 area, which will correlate with the 10 day moving average again for all you guys have been trading with me for about nine years, you know that the 10 day moving average is the birth of the trade. So closing below the 10 day moving average will be well. I don't want to use the word death of the trade, but at least an orderly back test will take place. So one 94 71 to the upside one 90 50 to the downside close everything else in between. Again, use your own individual process, your approach to put stakes in the freezer. If you trade pivots with us, you obviously know the top of the market and the bottom of the market are, you know, very, very small part of what we do. It's those sneaky channels, the meat right the meat of the sandwich that give us the most value so very good solid week. The same names over and over and over again again this is the market you don't you don't need to trade 600 different stocks anymore. Again, I trade the same names over and over again because again, we know their tendencies. We know the ranges we know exactly the areas that a good aggressive volume will come in because that's the arbitrage that's the edge. And when these channels confirm whether to the upside to downside, usually good things are following between. So if you look at Friday session. Again, pretty, pretty good session again by and the has just been in death mode. Congratulations for all you guys who've been short all the way down every week. You know, every week you just look, you know, hear me giving levels to where it should take its next like down. I believe was last week was 133 133 was the low right 133 was the low from September the 25th and this stock has just gotten manslaughter like literally every manslaughter every single day. And again, it's not how far a stock has come down. Remember guys, okay, fair value. There's no such thing as overbought or oversold. Okay, fair value is the last closing print. Okay, that's all it is. Whatever somebody is willing to pay for it is the fair value for the stock. Unfortunately, for this particular company. Well, it's got a lot of problems. Number one, it's been sold down for and if you get you're watching this broadcast now for for even for weeks. This stock has stopped going down on PRs. And this is the king of the PRs out every week. You had you had your McDonald's PR, right, like literally testing for a people McDonald's PR destroyed yet Carl's Jr. PR destroyed. You had Arby's come out on Thursday. Right. We actually traded the funny thing is we actually traded beyond to the upside of Thursday actually put a couple bucks on this thing. But they keep on getting sold on PRs, which is very, very bad because nobody wants to own the stock. The last two times the stock actually got upgraded. They got sold as well. And oh, by the way, lockup is coming up on October the 29th. I know I think that earnings on the 28th and lockup within 29th or reverse. But either way, I think you have like 9.6 million shares being released. And if you think the stock is going down now, then you're going to see the floodgates really, really open up on this thing. And again, for all you guys who came in short, congratulations. We talked about this big gap down. And this is in the previous night. Any close below 118 can see 108 before lockup and look with the low for the day is 107.91. And now it gets pretty, you know, now it gets pretty basic on this thing. So here's, here's where I got the 108, right. So that was the top of the channel from that gap of of June the third. So any close now below 108 guys, and this thing that goes all the way down to 76 that is literally no demand from 108 right from 108. Again, you can make a turn right. You can turn on say, Well, what about 95? Okay. Makes you feel better. So you have 10895 and then all the way down to 77. Again, keep this in mind. The IPO was from $45. So again, anybody who has shares that you know is salivating over lockup to make some sales. I'm pretty confident to say they will be making some sales. So a great job and all you guys on BYND FST. I still like the setup never triggered here. I kind of like this going to this week. If I could actually wake up BBY again, not a big move, right? This is your thing, not a big move. But again, we talked about 7070 20 stock went to 71 again, not the biggest moves. I'm not going to trade this thing, but this is your thing. This is your thing. This is a pivot. This is a pivot. This is a pivot, right? Doesn't make a difference if it's BBY or beyond. There are anything in between. RVNC didn't trigger. Again, you know, here was the pivot here, that sneaky pivot on the 13, you can see 110. Obviously 110 took out went to 108. This is where things got super aggressive, like really, really aggressive here. So Netflix came out with new came out with earnings and the stock was pretty much sold off on Thursday the whole day. Okay. It was sold off the whole day and the stock closed within two, three points of the low of the day. And again, I wanted to give Netflix kind of the benefit of the doubt. And I said this on the Thursday night or on the Friday morning strategy that sometimes when they sell off one of these beta names, they do have tendencies once in a while to kind of fake people out and run it the second day. It's very, very, it's not normal, but it has been done. So I wanted to give it kind of the benefit of the doubt and never did that. Okay. So we started looking at this thing and we talked about what 29050, 290 if it builds below can flush. And again, I noted this was going to be a big number. Yesterday's low is 288 as a reference point. So obviously if it starts building 29050, 290 measured potential least is 288. If it takes out 288, it can flush and Netflix got absolutely destroyed. I mean really, really destroyed. So here's a 60 minute view and this is where I got all these areas. So here was the, here was the 288, right? So here is the 288, the previous day's low. Okay. So here was right here. Here was the 29050 was the pre-market low. And again, if you believe in theory stocks trade from supply to supply and demand to demand. So here is the 29050 all the way down to demand and demand and demand. So it took out the 29050, 290 area destroyed, went down to 288. There wasn't even a breath. Okay. There wasn't even a breath. If you were long in the stock and you expected any type of bounce off the previous day's low or at least a pause there, it never even happened. This thing got absolutely destroyed, took out to 88 and just went all the way down to 273, just an absolute manslaughter. Tesla, you know, look, I thought on Tesla, you can get 254, 255, right? Here was the challenge we were watching, 265 to the upside, 259 to the downside. There was news that came out, actually positive news. I believe it was positive news about the Model 3 delivery somewhere in the middle of the day. And I noticed that the stock that just did not rally off that news, not even up to. Okay. Usually when you get really, really good news like that or a positive headline, Tesla would usually spark. It had such a big, big run. So it was just tired. Again, nobody was talking about the stock was going to go down $10, $15 today. We were just talking about there's a measured potential going all the way down to the 254, 255. If this 259, if this 259 confirmed. And the reason why, again, if you look at Tesla's chart, again, here's the 259, right? Here was the 259 area. And the reason why I said 254, 255, everybody see that? It correlates pretty well, right? It stopped right on the daily chart right before, just right above that 254, 278 level. So really good sell off here. So again, here's the 255. And it just went straight down to the 255 level that 255, 254 is going to be a pretty good area for a line in the sand going into next week. So nice shop on Tesla. Again, on BBY selling the way up and Roku. Okay, talk about it. I mean, we traded Roku all week to the upside. I traded Roku three or four times this week to the upside, pretty good moves. As you guys have seen, especially Thursday, that last pivot just went bananas. But, you know, here's an area that, you know, I thought it could get hit. Okay, it came back down, tested the channel started spiking. I said, hey, look, if this 135, 45 area, if it builds below can flush. Okay, it can flush for some flow. Again, I thought that had a measure potential of roughly 131, 80. Okay, I thought there was a shot at 131, 80, because 131, 80. And first of all, let me just show you the setup here. So here is that, you know, here's the, it stopped here, right at 32, 3219. This area here was that 131, 80s level. And I said, if this thing potentially, you know, this thing potentially goes, you could probably get an aggressive move of 3180. I think I tweeted it. I think I tweeted this out. Yeah, 3180 was the rising five day. Forget about 3180. Okay, this thing ripped through the five day like it wasn't even there. And forget about 3180, this thing went all the way down to 126, just an absolute manslaughter, really, really big move on Roku as well. What else, what else, what else, what else. Strong build, BYND, new lows, blah, blah, blah, 110, blah, blah, blah. Yeah, I mean, here is, you know, here is Tesla, and he closed now under 258, sees 254, 255. Perfect move there. Here it comes. From what I hear. And that's it. But again, you had the big measured moves. And that was the most important part of not only on Friday, okay, not only Friday, but you had these really big measured moves on the whole week, Netflix, Tesla, BYND, especially Roku, Apple was a beast as well. I even tweeted this out. I even tweeted out. If you go to my, if you go to my regular, if you go to my regular Twitter feed, I always try to, I always try to put some, some free pivots of guys, you know, towards the end of the day, just to give you guys, you know, just to give you guys, in a sense, in real time, how these things work. And pretty good stuff here. Even, even Apple, let me just give you an idea. Let me give you an idea of some of these pivots here. I think I gave, I think I gave out Apple on Friday. Yeah, so I wrote here on Apple, it was 320, it was obviously 33640, but 336, 333640 needs to build. Again, here's a perfect example. Here's a perfect example why pivots, again, sneaky pivots work very, very well. So here's the whole 33640 area. And once it confirmed, again, this is on a market that was selling off, ran, you know, ran about a dollar and change for a very, very good aggressive move. Again, I, you know, again, it's all good after the fact everybody puts, you know, lines on charts and this and that. Again, these pivots are, again, I say this all the time, you breathe in real time, you laugh and cry and love in real time. You have to trade in real time. Okay. And the most important part is when I do give a pivot in real time, I want to see, I want to show you guys that again, there is an alternative way of trading. And I said this for many, many years. If you're trading two, three, four years and you're constantly doing the same thing, you're just kind of stuck in the mud. Again, the only way to change your view of the markets is you have to have an open mind. There is another way. There just, there is. It's like going to basketball to say, oh man, vanilla. I like vanilla, but you know, I'm getting tired of vanilla. And then you realize that there's another 31 flavors that you can try. But, but again, we did find this. I mean, I found this arbitrage almost eight years ago and we've been developing it year after year after year. And again, because you guys see this man, you know, it's, it's pretty good. I mean, it really is pretty good. And the most important part is if you are trading two, three, four years at some point, you have to, you know, ask yourself how long can I hemorrhage money and brain cells and sweat and mental equity and not get anywhere. Again, you have to, if you are serious about being a professional trader, aspiring trader, whatever the case will be, you have to be open to other ways. And again, I don't care if you trade options or futures or, you know, mid caps or Bitcoin, anything or pivots, there has to be another way that if you, if your current situation is not working, that you have to give it an opportunity. You have to give yourself every opportunity to succeed. So going into this week, guys, I am bullish, okay, I am bullish until I am not. Again, that is the greatest part about being a professional trader. You're never locked into an area of concentration. You have to be flexible. And when the data changes, okay, when the data changes, you have to be able to adopt. So let me give you guys some ideas, non beta ideas for the week. Some, some names that I do like obviously the beta stuff. It's a little bit different. I stopped pretty much giving beta ideas up front, not because of this whole cloak and dagger, because again, for us, the way I trade pivots, I need to see organic order flow. If I see, you know, an extra amount of volume come in, it doesn't mean it's good or bad. I mean, sometimes, well, people are just watching pivots and they're going to be jumping in at the wrong time on those pivots thinking that's confirmation. Again, if you don't know how to trade these pivots the right way, it's going to cost you a lot of money. So I just kind of stop giving the pivots out in real time, just because I want to see organic order flow. And that's very, very important to me. But let me give you guys some non beta names. Again, you don't need to trade beta. You don't need to trade beta to trade pivots. It's very, very important to understand that. NET looks really good. NET, recent IPO, closed below this range here, 1550. If it starts building down below 15, 2015, you could get a move here to the bottom of the channel of 14 and change. Crone, again, these pot stocks, they just can't rally, just the reality. I mean, with the whole pot sector strong and crazy and all that stuff, they just can't rally, man. They just really can't. The last couple of days low was this 830 level on Crone, even the news got sold. It starts building below 830, 825. You could get a move back to the bottom channel of 760s PCAR. Actually, a nice looking chart. I haven't traded for Cartman and God knows how long, but this is a long, long base going all the way back to end of June. If it starts building over 7250, you could get a nice move there as well. NTES might be starting its back test or what's the word I'm looking for? Not back test. If it starts, it's back set, right? Had a big, big run here. First red candle, second red candle stop in five day. Again, if the five day gets confirmed just like the way Tesla did on Friday. If the five day gets confirmed, you do have a lot of room here down to 273. So let's keep an eye on that. And SGN, nice little chart here as well. SGN as well. If it starts confirming the top of this channel after good consolidation on the daily, above 88, 88, 70s, 89, you could get a move to this 90, 57 area. So guys, have an awesome, awesome rest of your weekend. God bless. Do some fun. Do something fun. Have some me time. Enjoy yourself. Again, we only have one life where you don't get a mulligan or any do overs. Guys, God bless. I'll see you all on Monday. Congratulations for putting in the time to take control of your trading. You're one step closer to owning your future and achieving the success you desire. Want daily trade ideas directly from Dan? Straight off his personal watch list? Unlock our free PS60 vault where you'll get nightly updates on pivot opportunities we're watching for the next day's session. Click the link in the description to get started today.