 Okay, very good morning. It is Wednesday 21st of April. I hope you are doing well back after two days off and Definitely feel much much better now the car form has gone And I think it always helps to have a couple days off away from the screens to just add a bit of perspective Generally to what you're doing whether trading looking at markets or just any projects that you're working at Raring to go and happy to get stuck back into things in the Amphi live room today But as per usual going to give you a quick update on the clothes what happened in the Asia Pacific session and generally an outlook for the day ahead and Yeah, definitely. It's interesting because obviously as I said I've been off the desk and haven't really looked at markets since Sunday when I issued to kind of my note for the week Ahead and very interesting to see just the bearish commentary that I think that those was emerging from some of the news I was reading last night and I guess the first thing that I Wanted to say was was really two-fold or on that point I saw that Wall Street closed down a pretty uniform clothes In fact, we were down about point seven percent across the major three US indices The point being it was the first back-to-back slide. We've seen since March for US equities and so One of the things here is that I Looked at the chart and for me. I saw we we pulled back a little bit when I was writing my note on Monday I'd already saw the kind of Weekend activity on some of the brokers that we were going to open down a little bit a marginal gap down But keeping in mind on the daily chart just how far and how quickly we had rallied I was looking at this this morning and really from around My birthday when we were down around the lows on the 26th of March We basically rallied about eight and a half percent to get to the point with the record high That we have seen in looking at S&P futures here 80 or 41 83 and a half We've actually come off here with the two-day decline that we've had about one and a half percent An actuality as well if I just put a rectangle on here We pulled back to very interesting technical level short-term on the dailies, which is around 41 10 and a half An area of previous Support that we've seen since around 13 14th of this month any breakdown of here I'd probably be looking then for this area of resistance. We initially were encountering back in the beginning of April 4072 The deeper pullback then would be around the psychological 4,000 level in the previous all-time high seen amount mid-March the point being is we've rallied pretty Consistently over the course of a number of weeks and to see a bit of short-term profit-taking I think it's not that unexpected when you think about the things that have been in play From the vaccines to the stimulus and with earnings I think with a lot of earnings the numbers that we've been seeing if they are the ones that have been Good and we'll talk about Netflix in a second, but the ones that have been good It's almost like markets, of course always forward-looking a lot of this Acceleration in the XC market that we had been seeing was expecting these kind of blowout numbers and when the blowout numbers come It's a very little meaningful surprise as far as how markets against this market positioning And so we come off a little bit, you know It's not really adding further fuel because it's already it's already the moves happened to that respect so I guess The thing I wanted to say was just a little bit of perspective and maybe it's easier for me to say that coming in I Definitely know what it's like Being an intraday person where you get quite absorbed into the news flow And certainly there's a negative tilt to the overall news sphere right now But you know coming in for me you're fresh looking at this is kind of the beginning of my week now I don't actually feel that That that that kind of nervous about what's been happening in markets here Definitely, I will talk about COVID situation But don't forget and worsening of the COVID situation in India and Japan I was talking about that in a briefing over a week ago And so it's not an entirely new thing so for me I think yes those situations are getting worse and I'm going to run you through an update on that in a moment But I think it's the combination of this to just the the breakout We've had on the upside and the consistency of that incline We've seen in US equities and it's all just come at the same time to just initiate some of this initial downside But the downside we've had It definitely doesn't make me feel particularly nervous about US equities at this point in time because if we came lower down 4110 this 4072 404,000 I think we get buyers definitely down at that lower level for sure So I don't think there's room to really hit the panic button just yet Definitely though, you know coming back to the here and now as well elsewhere in the other Markets in the currency market, you know, just check out the dollar's performance over the month of April I mean the dollar's been getting hit Quite quite banding and so to see a bit of an uptick as what we did do yesterday That's just pushed the pairs in euro dotting cable off their highs. I don't think that's surprising either In this environment and certainly I guess if there is a risk of tone Little bit of a move back into the dollar and then we just see a bit of a pullback there as well Gold perhaps gets back a little bit of shine Upside I'll be keeping eye on the high that we had in Monday session that came at 1790 we're training and finding a bit of resistance at the moment just testing around R1 in the futures at 1785 up $7 at the moment WTI crude certainly as well kind of conforming to the general risk of tone but again Bit of perspective, I think I mean if you look at remember what happened in the prior week We had that big kind of technical break out The surge in prices that came back on the 14th and we kind of peaked then right the The end of what actually this was where we were yesterday in fact, and we were up trading around 64 38 I know at the time there were a couple of headlines talking about the US house panel advancing a bill allowing anti-trust suits again against OPEG And that did come amid this kind of rollover in price when we were seeing some aggressive downside But I must say that Actually with that type of legislation being put forward in the US We've seen similar plans to pressure OPEG on oil prices in Congress without success For the last 20 years So there's no peck movement if you like in America, of course, they're going to be somewhat Dissatisfied about the apparent cartel the law of Middle Eastern African names have on the price of oil It's never gone anywhere and to be quite frank I can't see it going anywhere given the relationships that the US has that an integral then to its acquiring of crude oil from the likes of Saudi Arabia and so on and so forth and they need that Relationship they need presence in that region and so the idea that that legislation could go anywhere against Antitrust lawsuits and OPEC. I think it's just it's just hot air. So Maybe some reaction to that yesterday But you know, maybe there's a bit of demand concerns given the fact that emerging markets, you know The one thing, you know to play devil's advocate is It might be all well and good that the US and the UK accelerating in their vaccination programs And and that's great But areas like India the emerging markets generally are going to take longer Because there's so much further behind in terms of acquiring vaccines to then be administered that there's a bit of a disconnect and without a global Kind of an oculation scenario there's always going to be risks as the UK Prime Minister said yesterday of Foreign kind of covid virus in different mutations of variants coming back to the UK which could render that the inoculated population unprotected against these types of things so Generally, we do need a global solution for the longer term control of covid and that is that is partially I think what could have explained a trigger point a catalyst if you like for some of the downside But again like the equity market look where oil has been and then look where we we were Yesterday and look where we are at the moment I mean we were still up at the highs that was seen back on now the 30th of March So then we had rallied from a 58th handle all the way up to a 64 and a half So the fact that we've come off and you know when we start breaking technical levels. We start getting But I speculative momentum traders step into the market You can see there quite a nice break on that double bottom From the mid-April price action came back up on a test that's drifted south here since And we're down about 50 cents again this morning. So again, not denying the downside from yesterday but I don't feel it's Again this overarching kind of negativity I think it's a bit overplayed for me from the moment T-notes up at the top end of the range from yesterday's US session Upside you got the high from the end of last week see just above and obviously yields just just backing off with the The equity sell-off that we saw yesterday and then that general tone just playing through helping gold remain elevated overall So that's yeah, the other point. I wanted to make briefly I said two points earlier the other point was just more of a I guess routine point of view and for me It was just the idea of when you when you were off when you've been offered away from the market So whether you're an analyst like me or whether you're a trader I do often find that you know when you're looking at markets in today you get very much in check It's almost like you've got the real measure and pulse of the market and you know, you're aware Of all the news flow where we're at In that type of thing right up to the minute and then when you're off You're kind of a little bit distance from it needs to catch up And so again might the procedure I normally have is I'll spend an hour or two Before that kind of return to market just looking at things looking at charts technically looking at the news flow Read me a couple of stories And I'll just kind of ease my way back in and I think for traders. It can be a similar type of thing whether that's You know just staying quite Conservative with your approach to markets that day whether that's then you know only training high Conviction strategies if they materialize or downsizing in order to just get your get your confidence back in I do often think that there is a bit of a Abedding period when you've had some time away from the desk or maybe for any new traders just a word of advice But look, let's have a quick run through the news then Then we'll wrap up so Yeah, obviously the the main thing that people are looking at is this kind of renewed COVID concern And this is looking at India and this is looking at the seven-day rolling average of COVID-19 metrics in India Looking at cases on the left and deaths on the right as you can see here this wave that they're confronting in India At the moment is by far and away the worst of the situation so far in the pandemic Actually from a case count point of view. I read last night So in fact you can see this breakout here of red at the top because the black lines the average Actually, we've hit 2,000 deaths in the last 24 hours in India's the worst worst on record separately Japan Japan we've close to declaring a virus emergency as infections spread in its two biggest and economically important urban areas This being Tokyo and Osaka And then separately elsewhere globally. We've already seen I Was talking about in my my my week ahead notes on Sunday about this kind of double-edged sword That the Bank of Canada weighing up with their rate decision this week With the idea that there's been some improving economic data points Which might warrant this idea of discussion of tapering but counterbalance that areas Like Ontario and other regions in Canada, which are seeing advanced COVID cases requiring government restrictions putting the local restrictions put into place and so that's the balance at the moment and Health authorities in Toronto are going to order workplaces across Canada's biggest city to close Almost imminently at this point in time So, yeah overnight in the age pack session followed the negative close on Wall Street If anything percentage wise a little bit worse than Wall Street Particularly in the likes of Japan underperforming given the situation that we're talking about impacting two of the economically most important urban areas in the country Elsewhere on the COVID front. I did say that Boris Johnson has warned of another co-op coronavirus wave in the UK this year Mid-rising cases abroad. So I think a couple of things from a political strategy point of view I think he's doing there one He's trying to manage expectations Because undoubtedly as we go through into the latter part of the year particularly when the winter returns You're probably going to see just an uptick in in general irrespective of the advancements made in the vaccine because we're going to require Booster shots and so on so there's a little bit of management of expectations there Then also quite explicit in the fact that he's kind of blaming rising cases elsewhere So again disassociating it from your own domestic situation Blaming it elsewhere gives yourself a bit of kind of policy protection if you like if things do materially get worse You can point the finger like with the new Indian cases that have been identified and spread within India within London and so on and so forth He did say though Johnson However, the country is still on track to lift restrictions as planned with indoor hospitality scheduled to reopen on The 17th of May at this point and then yesterday, of course, we had the Johnson and Johnson They're going to restart shipments of COVID-19 vaccine in Europe after that ruining from the EMA kind of similar to what we've heard before Benefits outweigh the risks after identified a possible quote link between the jab and rare blood clots I guess this chart is is a good one in the FT this morning And it's an article talking about the success of the vaccines because wherever there's been advanced progression in the rollout program of the vaccine and definitely in looking at the Demographics that have been targeted the older ones case rates hospitalizations and so I've decreased a lot whereas those still yet to be Vaccinated in the under 50 categories generally younger people have still got more elevated levels So the vaccine is appearing to be Effective in this case, but what this chart is looking at is on the matrix twofold Up being weekly change in new cases increasing down Decreasing and then left to right the weekly change in mobility. So more strict going left and more open more mobile Increasing mobility going right and as you can see here UK and Israel the only two in the target zone at the moment And I think this this this is a good snapshot of generally what's going on at the moment. I guess be interested to overlay Where they're at the speed of vaccines and the overall Number of vaccines that have been targeted or delivered at this point would be the other interesting overlay on this graphic But as you can see here India The worst in terms of case rises But and therefore the kind of higher up that they are the more they move to the left in order to counteract it by initiating more harsher restrictions So good global picture here of generally what's going on At this point in time and what you might start to see is a bit of a disconnect where the UK generally as per PM Johnson on course to further reopen which should then allow the economy to further pick up in Comparative to other areas like India or as you can see here like France for example Which are continued to be impacted by social restrictions And also that not changing for some time until their vaccination rates pick up and they suppress Cases that are being increasing in some of the more density pop-slated areas in the country to then pull back down the outbreak number As well. All right, we'll move elsewhere and have a look at a few other things. Just wanted to talk about Netflix This was the aftermarket performance of Netflix You can see it's like dropping off a cliff last night following their earnings They did fall as much as 13 percent and actually you were down just around 8.7 percent in aftermarket closed last night Which is around five hundred dollars Why was the reaction so negative? Well couple things here The streaming service added just three point nine eight million subscribers in Q1 and Unless we're expecting and looking for on the street six point two nights almost almost double So really disappointing on their their addition of subscribers They also fell woefully short of their own internal target of six million They the the bearish news continued because as far as the outlook is concerned Obviously, they're reporting Q1 as far as Q2 update the current court today said could be even more challenging The company predicting one million new customers versus street expectations of four point four million So really quite quite bad on that front But I think I think Context is important and I was looking at the actual Netflix charts here over the course of the pandemic and this is obviously March when we have the stock market route and then going into kind of mid-March when we hit that eventual low that low came at pretty much 300 bucks as you can see down here and We have traded up as high as Right up here of five eight six and given that the pre mark the aftermarket move that happened dropping from five fifty to five hundred So Q1 of 2020 said this period here Was and had been the strongest in company history obviously the initial surprise Pandemic outbreak the move to harsh Social restrictions meaning that people were living their lives at home saw a massive increase in subscriber rates They were they were smashing forecasts at the time However, the last three months in contrast marked the slowest first quarter since 2013 And so we're having a bit of a pullback in the share price here for me. It's almost like This stock price needs to normalize and so I would personally I don't find 10% move in their stock price that Concerning and I know that might sound a bit remiss, but there's a couple of things here for me I don't think you I think on the balance people are expecting potential downside surprise, which obviously materialized I think it was a little bit surprising in terms of this the depth of how bad the situation was with adding new subscribers So granted, I'm not I'm not trying to talk that up It definitely was a bad quarter for them and this quarter is equally looking to be quite bad But the cat is now out the back They've said that for the current quarter They they might hit now one million new subscribers That was against endless expectations of almost five times more So they've already dropped that seed in now So those analysts need to rain it right down and so they're kind of prepping up. It's almost like look the situation's bad I'm gonna I'm gonna give you an expectation. That's terrible Purposefully, let's take the hit now so that when then the quarter results come out and they are Diabolical with the number of subscribers we've added the stock price actually rallies When we get to the next quarterly Corporate earning season. So for me, I think it's a bit of it's a bit of Engineering on behalf of the company in order to come out with these types of statements amount Just really bad outlooks to manage that fallout Better to do it now to manage the market because generally speaking then the market all being well Going through let's say next three months We're in a better position with COVID and and generally economy reopening and and so on and so forth And the general stock market will still be supported. The other thing here is that Even with the drop in the stock price the company actually had its strongest financial It's it's in its strongest financial position in its history now Some people are saying that's a little bit to do with safe costs There was quite a few people talking about the fact that they haven't really made because I haven't been able to make new Shows and that's a massive expense to the company But actually reported net income of one point seven one billion That's more than double the year ago and they generated free cashflow of nearly seven hundred million dollars during the quarter And these types of metrics have never really been seen before So I think it does give a little nice foundation there to accompany There's never really had that where it's always been pinned on subscriber rates And you know to be able to pivot away from the subscriber right and talk about the actual underlying financials for a little bit might be a nice way for the company to go forward to Disassociate itself away from such dependency and volatility based on subscriber figure So yeah a couple things there for Netflix. I thought I'd just quickly cover Another thing that came out last night that It dates an old letter basically it was an exclusive on Reuters Came after the European clothes quite interesting, but it is old It said that US economy is going to temporarily see a quote a little higher inflation this year This is quoting Jerome Powell as a recovery strengthens the supply constraints push up prices in some sectors But the Federal Reserve is committed to limiting any overshoot And that's interesting because obviously the Fed have adopted an average inflation targeting model and what he's saying and what we Claim to believed if we're right from what Federal Reserve officials have said is that in actuality Inflation can run hot it can run over the 2% target because we're averaging out over a Medium-term horizon, but what he's saying here is a little bit more definitive in the fact that they're committed to limiting an overshoot so Whether or not this was done purposefully, it's obviously dated an old letter to April 8th obviously the Fed are in the blackout period People have been you know kind of Led to believe that the Fed are just going to tow the line for the moment But this would be a little bit more aggressive that they might actually counter higher inflation So I'm sure this was done purposely from the Fed to just perhaps rain in Marcus Any risk of complacency about Fed are just going to sit on their hands And maybe they even want to control this this equity run array narrative Just to bring it back to a bit of normality again a little bit But certainly the equity move was already happening before the this piece came out And then we had the API olive trees last night not really too much Reaction the bearish on the headline though a bill of 436,000 Expectations were for a draw 4.4 cushing though was a draw of 1.286 million gasoline draw 1.617 million quick wrap up of the calendar then what's coming ahead? We've just had the UK data out. So just to let me get you up to speed the year-on-year CPI Has come in if you just be one second the core year-on-year is 1.1 which was in line with expectations Just checking the news feed here. It's a little bit messy year-on-year 0.7% versus expected 0.8% so Not expecting any real reaction here in UK inflation data In fact though, you know 0.7% 0.1 learn expected it is meaningful pickup from 0.4% on a year-on-year perspective But don't forget that just generally energy utility prices have been rising We are inflation expects inflationary pressures to increase in the UK and going forward. So yeah, no I wouldn't really take into consideration too much that data if you're trading sterling today Otherwise going further forward into the session There's no major 130s out of the US just CAD inflation CPI figures you get the Bank of Canada rate decision Which I discussed briefly earlier happening this afternoon at 3 p.m Then the oil of the trees to follow at 3 30 speaker wise Bank of England's Ramston and Bailey 9 a.m. And 11 30 however both are speaking off topic and quite frankly I'm not expecting anything new from either of those but just so you're aware Then fixed income wise you've got a shorter dated Well, excuse me not a shorter date You got kind of more benchmark maturity bonds coming out for auction from the UK in Germany 4 billion in the Bund auction out of the German Bundesbank And then you've got 24 billion dollars in the 20-year bond auction out the US later on today Earnings wise main ones to look out for Verizon It's probably the the main one Halliburton Kinder Morgan Nasdaq as well and that is it. So let you guys get on with the session Sam will go through some of the technicals in more detail for the amplifier live community In a short moment in time. So otherwise wish you a good day ahead good to be back and I will see you in the chat room Thanks very much