 So good afternoon everybody. You're all very welcome here this afternoon for today's event Before I introduce our speaker today Can I just ask everybody as usual to check that your mobile phones are either switched off or switched to silent? Our speaker today is dr. Adrienne Schult He's a senior research fellow and also coordinator for Europe and the Klingendal Institute in The Hague He's also a member of the EU advisory committee to the Dutch government Before joining Klingendal, he served as an independent expert in the field of EU governance for the Economic and Social Committee and for the Directorate General for Research in the European Commission And he has published numerous books and international articles on European topics So we're very fortunate to have such a distinguished speaker today who combines a great wealth of experience on the functioning of the European Union with a deep knowledge of attitudes to the EU in his own country as well as in other member states The title of his talk today is changing narratives a domestic debate in the Netherlands on the future of Europe This will be of particular interest here Not only in the context of this Institute's work on the future of Europe But in the wider context of this citizens dialogue on the future of Europe Which has been launched by the government and which involves a series of public consultation meetings around the country So dr. Schult will speak for about 20 to 30 minutes And after that he will answer questions And as usual his presentation will be on the record, but the Q&A session afterwards will be off the record based on Chatham House Rules So it's now my great pleasure to invite Dr. Schult to address us Well, thank you everybody special the Irish Institute for getting me over It's a great pleasure to be here. I think it's also important that we have discussions about the EU about the future of the EU because We have to find the sort of formulations of where are we going with the EU? We have to find our narratives of Europe. What is this? animal we are Creating and that is something we have to do by exchanging our discussions as we have in the Netherlands and you have in Ireland and particularly in our capitals Because our histories are different and our problems are different So we have different views on Europe, but we still have to come up with something about a Common view on the EU and that's why I use the title narrative it's a bit of a Isoteric term maybe but we need to have a story. What is it that we are creating? What is it that we're working on and we have to find agreements over that and EU narrative in the Netherlands is rather different from the EU narrative in Germany or in France So we have to talk about it and we have to come up with a common lines and and and ideas I Will talk about the situation in the Netherlands and I'll probably say things like we But of course there is no I'm not the spokesperson for the Netherlands So when I talk about the Netherlands or we then, you know, you have to take that as a sort of in the discussion I use that and I know very well that Marik Ruta Prime Minister will say one thing but the new Minister of Finance will have a harder line than Ruta So, you know, really depends on the individuals But we have to make a bit of a sort of impression of the Netherlands and I'll try to do my best I've been looking at the Netherlands for a long time I've been writing books about it and I don't know what else so I Hope I have a bit of an insight into it, but it's not perfect I'll probably make four points. One is I really want to talk say a few things about the context in which we're having this debate about the future of Europe My second point will be about the EU as An institutional system that is drifting My third point will be about the Netherlands how we look at the EU and Finally, my fourth point is something that I am Thinking about myself and this is something I want to also see how we can discuss that is How can we discuss a more mature form of European integration than we are having now So we really have to think about different lines of European integration more mature And I think we need Ireland for that and all the other countries But let's start the discussion. That's where I want to end with so about the context The context very simple. You all know it. We have I Would almost say enormous discussions about risk sharing a lot of the discussions are about the Eurozone, but also more about deeper integration risk sharing is Let me not go into all the details. I'll probably you know it Will we get a European minister for economic and finance? Will we get new financial instruments such as a rainy day fund? Do we need additional European? investment funds Shall we merge presidents in the EU? Important question is shall we have European taxes? We know that the proposals from the Commission that came out this week But also we see the discussions about European taxes. They are Rising I Guess we will get European taxes But there is a line in the development of the European Parliament. The European Parliament is probably an underestimated institution When I started working on the European integration people told me that European Parliament is a Mickey Mouse Parliament and That civil servant told me to completely ignore it and But now the Parliament is really a very important player With his spits and Gandhi data in 2014. It was this time. It's different to slogan for the elections If that that was a game changer the Parliament and the connection to the government the Commission It made the Commission more political more moving towards a government if there will be European taxes That is the last development to really make this a mature European Parliament But that's the final game changer. Are we want to go in that direction of European taxes? So there's quite a number of very very big questions that we have on the table now and they have enormous consequences for the Functioning of the institutions the Commission as a political body the European Parliament as more powerful The role of the member states and the inter-institutional balance. So we have the context is one of really serious and important questions so now second point is about The past experience maybe from a Dutch perspective or maybe more general but what have we seen in the in the EU particularly in the eurozone but From a Dutch perspective the Netherlands was very much in favor of the euro but first convergence Then the euro There were debates about Italy shouldn't join Cyprus shouldn't join Portugal not ready Spain, etc. So yes euro highly committed but What type of order typically Dutch and there's still the Dutch talk about the order of how do we take steps? Probably not very well known, but there is a very Well, it's a B side B class hotel just outside Maastricht in Valkenburg and In that hotel the evening before the negotiations in Maastricht Mitterrand and Andriotti had dinner together and They decided to put a date on the euro project now the Dutch were the President of the Maastricht Treaty which had a sort of unfortunate history So the Dutch were a bit they could not do anything against that the Germans were of course already committed to the euro and to Mitterrand So the whole discussion about the order was circumvented in that dinner by Mitterrand and Andriotti of putting a date 1999 became 2001 two years later, but that circumvented the debate about the process in which country yes in which country no So yes euro, but this is how it went and see the consequences Italy still a problem The ECB the Dutch very much wanted a Independent a political European central bank not playing a role in bailing out there's quite a bit of Frustration over the ECB at the moment. I will be very quick about these points. There's a lot to say about it. No bailout See where we are Under Baroso if I remember correctly the Dutch were against a Globalization investment fund of half a billion Junker proposed his FC fund which is very much the same as the Globalization fund We were against the Dutch were against the half billion in 2009 Junker proposed 315 billion and now we have doubling of that Junker funds, so you see things are moving The Dutch were against the European Monetary Fund around early 2000s as 2010s Then it was trans The origin of the discussion we now was the European Financial stability Facility the Dutch wanted to have the term facility not the F of fund at the end then it became the ESM and now we have proposals of the full-blown EMF on the table The Dutch were also against the ESM to be part of a backstop for banks Again, that is now on the table The Dutch wanted to have independent supervision on the European semester by the Commission and even pushed for Reversed-qualified majority voting so that the Commission has even more Dependence and power to do to make statements about the economic situations in member states and what they should be doing Reversed-qualified majority voting. There was a Finn Olli Rain who had a sort of circum DGX in parts working on the European semester with Chinese walls around it. That was but also Olli Rain I did a chapter on that for a book project by the time that chapter came out in the book Olli Rain was gone and Junker and Moscovici were negotiating in the front pages of the Financial Times with Olanda about what to do so this idea of an independent Commission became a sort of strongly political in the words of Junker a very political Commission in hands of Junker and Moscovici So this independent supervision Is is getting out of sight even to the paradox That we have given the new political Commission Reversed-qualified majority voting almost independence or no control Independence of the Commission is something that really comes back a lot in the discussions about Supervision and the trust in the Commission is not really very high at the moment Independent Commission and Spitz and Kandidaten that doesn't go together very well In relation to the independent Commission The Dutch have been strong proponents of pushing for better regulation Meaning impact assessments Assessing what are the proposals? What are the cost and benefits? What alternatives what instruments to use how to evaluate the policies in the end so that it is Made it's not apolitical But at least that you have the foundations of your political decisions on the basis of better regulation arguments Better regulation as far as I can see it has been suffering Tremendously under Junker and Timmermans and we have to acknowledge in the Netherlands that Timmermans responsible for better regulation Of course comes from the Netherlands Just about FC the investment program of Junker Junker has been going around to state that these this Major investment program is a huge success But on what basis is he saying this? He's going around saying it's a big success and we don't know on what basis There's even a Bruegel a think tank in the Brussels report saying The money is spent which is what Junker calls a great success, but it doesn't lead to new investments only 2% so We have a president's commission Probably claiming a success of and we don't really know on what basis so better regulation would be we know what the facts are So that the Dutch better regulation agenda is is going out of the window no enlargement. You know that Junker is now Proposing that for the euro and the eurozone No taxation no European taxes and we see the proposal coming out What we see is this European system is drifting into Things that we think we agree on something. That's what we put to our public And We vote for a parliament and then it moves in different kinds of directions That is something that is is a worrying sign. This is the sort of pragmatism and compromise making in the EU that has a slightly frustrating angle in the Dutch debate about What is it that we are actually agreeing on if in a couple of years from now it is different than we're discussing at this stage So that's the my second point was about the the drift of European integration the trend that we see and the trend is also one of In a way a more mature European integration system with the Commission developing into a political body With an elected president and more powers to the European Parliament now The Narrative in the in the Netherlands But first let me say a few things about the the narrative where we are now with European integration It seems to be that the current trend is one of haste We have to fix the roof When the sun is shining Apparently there's a new crisis looming so we have to move fast We have to use windows of opportunity at the moment. So this is the sort of haste narrative and we see Juncker has been the Commission has been very active with producing proposals and and telling us also the EU has to deliver and we have to deliver now So we have to be ambitions and we have to be ambitious now So this the EU narrative is probably one of haste And political pressures the political pressures come from of course Juncker, but also come very much from Macron and Somebody like Martin Schultz. He just left a political stage, but he had a big influence of the past year and the developments in Germany So it's all about haste and political pressures and there's also something in this current development of the EU of It has to be a package we have to have a big win-win package for everybody But that makes it very hard to talk about the individual items because the big package running up to the European elections in 2019 is of course We want to offer something to the public that everybody will be happy with so it has to be about investments It has to be about a modern European budget with innovation You know you name it it's in that package, but that makes it very hard particularly for smaller countries To actually start to question some things in that package, but if you do Then let's say there is something like tax harmonization in that huge package We win for everybody Ireland doesn't want it You will veto the whole package and that's very tough to do in the European environment where all the other countries will Probably be blaming you the Netherlands we know a lot about that But so do you with the outcomes of referendum? So that's the development in the EU of haste political pressure and looking for a win-win overall package now the Dutch narrative the Dutch narrative the Dutch seem to have a reputation of being EU critical and To some extent that that impression is also created by the media because When we have elections, then I get a lot of questions from journalists from outside the Netherlands and Particularly last March when we had the elections. I got really annoyed and I also started to tell it to journalists all the questions were about one person He had builders so at 15% of our voters voted for he had builders and That of course creates a certain in we have a lot more to discuss in the Netherlands than that Fundamentally the Netherlands is very pro-European. We're almost with the Irish sort of high in the rankings For pro-European. We are very much at the economic trading nation, you know, I don't think There's a serious debate about an exit just like there's none here like that but In the Netherlands, I think People want to know what kind of Europe are we creating now the Dutch narrative at the moment is one of If I look at the words of of of Margarita is one of we want an EU of strong member states And why is that? Because we don't want people to look at the EU for help the countries have to Help themselves or have the abilities to do that they have to reform If you also if you look at the charts you can see that there are about Seven eight countries that trust themselves very much, but it also means that there are about 20 countries That particularly look at the EU For help and don't trust themselves and that's sort of awareness in the Netherlands We're in a smaller group of countries that that trust themselves and look at themselves whereas the other countries look at The EU and this also makes it very difficult to listen to Junker when he says people have to regain trust in the EU The problem then the the diagnosis in the Netherlands is that there's not a lack of trust in the EU There's a lack of trust in the member states themselves That's the thing to look at so that the Dutch narrative is Different from let's say the Junker narrative of people have to regain trust in the EU We think people have to regain trust in themselves and they in their own governments So that's an important element in the Dutch narrative written the government this government and previous governments also look at the EU for of course open markets for international relations for security and and all the rest of it But this idea of a Europe of strong member states is really key in the Dutch debate and When you look at the reforms that that you did during the crisis which were Phenomenal the Dutch also did major reforms and we didn't even have so much external pressure. We did it You know by ourselves more or less somebody in the European Commission called the Dutch the masochists of Europe You know whenever we see a crisis. We want to reform ourselves, you know voluntary So that's the sort of that's what we expect from the Europe the Europe that is Build a member state the Netherlands is also highly pragmatic and that becomes rather problematic Because we want to sit at any table for all the tables. We we have No opt-outs as far as I know. I'm looking at Expert on the Netherlands. I don't think then we have also we want to sit in any all the tables We had an opt-out this year on Epo, which is the European Public Prosecutors office where the Dutch government said well, we don't have to take part in everything EU Commissioners were telling me a Commission officials were telling me you will join in three months and they were right now We are we have agreed that we will join so we are very pragmatic We also we also very much of you know, we are a polder society We we negotiate and we do that at the European level So we are I think we're always we're we will there will not be strong in the end not be strong opposition from the Netherlands So we are also pragmatic. That's the point it was way Yet now and I think that has to do with Macron and Schultz We are back to something that I did not expect There's a new Allen narrative now in the in the Netherlands and that is a tougher European narrative That is one of no transfer union, but also member states should not expect Support from the EU And so the if then if you reform then you will get something from the EU that is now your letter said We don't want that kind of Europe anymore You know if countries want to reform they have to do it because they wanted themselves not because they get Support from the EU so we get a tougher line. I did not expect this Because the Dutch government Learned an important lesson from the third Rescue package to Greece where a router told in his election campaign in 2012 There will be no more money going to Greece. That was probably the Election slogan of Rutter no more money to Greece But in 2015 there was the third rescue package So we had to apologize in Parliament and that was the lesson the government learned Don't make big statements because you have to go back to Parliament and apologize So I was expecting from this new government No major statements on Europe, but in December Rutter really did it by these statements He he no transfer union and no if then Arrangements anymore Why did he do that and I think that really has a lot to do with Macron and Schultz's remark that We want to have the ever closer union and the countries that don't want it. They should leave that was a sort of The end of pragmatism for Rutter Rutter's prime is a very pragmatic person He wants to you know talk to everybody and then as long as possible But there he had to say even despite the lesson of no more money to Greece We can't do that Now so he drew a line. He had a tough statement on on On the EU Lot to say about it just to finalize a couple of further remarks So there's a vision now Rutter's been avoiding visions want to want to be pragmatic the vision, but This also makes it for the Dutch debate very complicated because for this vision It's highly unlikely that that vision will succeed because the next EU budget the multi-financial framework will involve a higher budget so even there we will see more of a transfer union But also other measures being taken we will probably get a European Monetary fund of some sort there will be a lot of steps going in directions that actually do not fit with the vision That is now outspoken Spoken out loud in the Netherlands So what will happen for this government if there are things that do not fit with the messages being given that's going to be a tough one for this government and the next thing which is going to be the and That will feed the counter narrative in the Netherlands if Rutter has to compromise at the EU level Then we will see Heidwilders and some others really now becoming more frustrated with this idea of Drifting EU where that is unstoppable and Where does it lead to it's that sort of? This is now the dangerous situation in the Netherlands that this drifting EU is becoming is getting the image of being unstoppable and becoming more political, etc But this government also needs supporters now the UK is gone What other countries does the Netherlands have? So we're very much looking at the coalitions and the coalitions Strategy is I guess a very dangerous strategy because coalitions are generally very unreliable And you need many small countries and to get a really strong voice It's understandable for the Dutch of course We want to be the bigger of the the biggest of the smaller countries so that Germany has to listen to us or we can understand it But it's very hard to get coalitions because as far as I know Ireland Wouldn't be against the higher EU budget, which is very sensitive, of course We would like to kill agriculture or subsidies. I think that would be a different debate here So with with I mean Austria Seems very much in the Dutch line in many ways, but in Austria. I think as far as I understand They would not be against European taxes so Very hard to have actually coalitions and to rely on it. I want to end with with Where I think this discussion stands now and should be going and this is something where I Also want to hear where where Ireland stand because The way I read the Dutch situation is that the Dutch are very much pro-European and I think We can easily sell in the Netherlands a transfer union. It's like paying taxes As long as you know what you're paying taxes for You know people are generally willing to pay the taxes and I think that is the same in the Netherlands But what kind of Europe are we building? See that is the basic question is this a political EU that is sort of becoming a sort of monster that Suffers from checks and balances If we look at the European it's sort of the the the the center of Brussels I think it's it's about a kilometer by kilometer and you have their 30,000 Officials from the European Council the Commission the European Parliament. There's an office of the ECB. There's I think an office of the EEB What is this? Do we have a system of checks and balances? Is this a mature? Political system or is this Yeah, what what is it? I was speaking to people in the European Parliament about Plans in the Commission and I had the idea that they were really working very close together with Parliament and Commission on Proposals that were being developed. Is this a system of checks and balances if we don't have better regulation with good preparation and Assessments at the end that if this is if all of this becomes political in a sort of environment Brussels That becomes in this way in transparent. I am not Pleading for a more democratic Europe because I don't think this is the issue that we're talking about at the moment The Commission is it's there. It's a it's a it's a fact of life And it's it's necessary but from a good systems of From good political Administrative systems we may expect that you have different phases. It's the policy preparation phase Even before that is the gathering of information. It's the policy formulation. It's the policy making of the It's the policy Implementation and its policy monitoring and it is policy enforcement All of that now is in the hands of the European Commission as far as I can see We need to have I think we need to look for inspiration to the Nordic countries Where you have small ministries and separation of different tasks in the policy process That is a system of checks and balances in the policy process that I think will usually contribute To the support that this at least is a good system and that's probably I really mean probably One of the difficulties that we have in the Netherlands What kind of system is it that we are creating and is this a good system? Is it better than that we have in the Netherlands or is it something like we had in in in Paris in In the 1990s sort of politically concocted intransparent system so Checks and balances that is I think what we really need to be talking about that we know what policies are what good policies are What monitoring systems there are what enforcement systems there are and there's a rule you cannot have all these functions in one hand Or in one organization We need to have much more independence in the different phases from each other I think there's an intellectual deficit in the EU that we don't look at that because When I look at the Netherlands, I think the Netherlands Could be highly committed to European integration We really need to tell what kind of Europe we are creating and also it should be clear that that is a Better Europe than what we have in the Hague because the impression that now exists is that this is a Europe that has been grown and developing pragmatically but at the time has now come that we look at it and Talk about serious reforms, but on a different level than we are having now Did I stay somewhat between within time? Okay. Thank you very much