 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Although my focus on Sunday will be focused entirely on motorsports with the Monaco Grand Prix Indy 500 Hopefully some NASCAR too. There's also big stuff popping over on the English Premier League It is the final match week of the year It means 10 matches all going on Simultaneously we're gonna break down those matches with Austin Cass getting his read on those and then we'll talk some baseball Later on as well. Welcome on into covering the spread. That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and Numberfire.com my name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire Joined here as mentioned by Austin Cass. You can check him out on Twitter at Austin Cass You can find his work over at numberfire.com including an EPL betting guide for match week 38 Austin Thriller of a week coming up on Sunday. How you doing today? I'm doing great. How are you doing Jim? I am phenomenal. I think this weekend is among the best sports weekends of the entire year Hopefully we get a some better weather in Charlotte than what's in the forecast right now to get some NASCAR going on out there But even we don't get that. I mean Monaco Indy EPL stuff all going on on top of baseball Hopefully some basketball too. I think that's kind of delightful. Now my question for you is logistically How does this work like when they have 10 matches going on concurrently? Can you like pay attention to all them at once or is it like because I have like massive attention deficit issues Uh, can you pay attention or is it just chaos at all times? It's definitely chaos it won't be as crazy this year because there's not As many teams with stuff on the line as usual But normally mbc puts a lot of the key games on their various networks and then just on mbc alone They'll bounce around from game to game. Okay. So a little bit of like a red zone type feel. Yeah this final sunday I love it. Well, that is fantastic. It should be a fun viewing experience You can add this on before indy starts even actually because uh, the matches kick off at 11 30 am eastern So we're talking about those we'll talk about uh, as mentioned some baseball later on if you're looking for some breakdowns Of monaco's from talking about the indy 500. We had dr. Nick giffen of the action air work on yesterday breaking down His thoughts on this year's primarily indy 500. We also did talk some nascar with nick as well You can find that over on the fangirl youtube page and on the covering the spread podcast feed Make sure you are subscribed on either youtube or the podcast platform of your choice If you like what you hear leave us a thumbs up over on youtube or a five star rating over on apple podcasts Now we'll talk about the actual matches here at a second austin But let's dig in and talk motivation first Which teams have the most on the line this weekend? Whether it be Relegation anything else who cares about what happens for this weekend? It all it's relegation it all is tied up in three teams lester everton and leeds Um south hampton are already relegated. So between lester everton and leeds two of those three are going down Right now everton are on 33 points while lester and leeds have 31 points apiece So every time they're the only one of the three that controls its own destiny If everton win At home against born myth on sunday, they're safe and leeds and lester will go down if everton draw or lose It opens the door for a lot of other scenarios to play out, but those three teams Are going to be pushing as hard as they can the full 90 minutes to get a win do anything that can do to get a Win so even in the scenarios where if everton draw lose Leeds and lester have to win their matches to Have a chance to stay alive So do those wind up being like the premiere matches of the weekends? When that's on the line is is it situation where like the premiere match is one where teams are trying to avoid relegation This year. Yes, absolutely last year We had a similar sort of scenario at the bottom of the table But also the title was still up for grabs so that then that becomes by far the biggest storyline but Yeah, the the biggest storyline this weekend is is who are the other teams that are going to go down besides Southampton. All right. So plenty on the line right there Let's now talk about these matches as mentioned 10 matches coming up on sunday awesomenal again at 11 30 am eastern So let's start here with the traditional markets when we start off with those where you see in value right now at fandall sportsbook Um, I want to get exposure to arsenal and the arsenal wolves match but I'm going to stay away from the minus 290 money line and I'm going to focus on Arsenal in two markets over two and a half goals, which is plus 124 And then their first half money line, which is minus 130 Uh, wolves and arsenal. This is probably the most up offsided matchup at the final day Arsenal have really crumbled down the stretch. They went from You know, having a pretty nice lead in the standings at the top of the table to Heading into the final day with no chance to win it. So things have really fallen apart for them But it's somewhat has spoiled what's been a really great season for them Even even though arsenal is shrugging a little bit There's still a massive canyon between them and wolves by fb refs expected goals model arsenal or third Inexpected goal differential at plus 27.6 While wolves are 16th at minus 20.7 Uh, arsenal's biggest issue down the stretch here has been defensively But I don't think wolves are going to be capable of taking advantage of it Wolves are next to us and expected goals generated for the season And they've been really bad on the road just 15.3 expected goals and 18 total away matches So this matchup presents arsenal with a golden chance to kind of write the ship here before the season is over And kind of wash some of the bad taste out of their mouths from their late season Swoon and I think they're going to take advantage of it and come out with their hair on fire So that's why I'm backing them to win the first half Which is my favorite bet of the weekend and I also think they score at least three goals Yeah, that first half money line is to mention minus 130 for arsenal the over two and a half goals right now at vandal sports book Plus 128 an arsenal and you think that it sounds like based on what you're saying you believe that the Kind of sputtering down the stretch will be the motivation for arsenal to kind of go out on the high note here, correct? Yeah, absolutely I think If you had told arsenal fans before the year that they would be legit title contenders and finished second They would have like snapped their hands on the heart beat So the way this season's finished it's it's kind of spoiled what's been a really good year for them and I think they Are probably pretty desperate to try to end the year on somewhat of a high note Okay, so arsenal two and a half goals over is plus 128 an arsenal first half money line minus 130 austin liking both those to get exposure to arsenal without taking The straight up money line at minus 290 anything else for you as far as the traditional markets on sunday Yeah, something else. I like is uh fulham's chances to get at least a point against mantress united at old trafford on sunday So i'm taking fulham and draw which is plus 155 in the double chance market um Part of the reason i'm down on Manchace united for this one is that they just played on thursday night And while that match and this upcoming one are both at home It's still a significant rest disadvantage for them. Uh fulham's last game was uh this past saturday So fulham are definitely going to be the more rested team another part of it is motivation Neither of these teams have anything to play for it technically, but this is the first match where you could say that for united and the After mentioned thursday match They needed at least a point to clinch a spot in the top four and get in the champions league for next year They got more than a point by winning 401 over chelsea But i think there's a red there's a chance that the red devils take the foot off the gas on sunday Either by putting out a weekend starting 11 and giving some guys a rest before their f a cup final Which is coming up next weekend against mantress of city or just subconsciously because they've already locked up their champions league spot Uh fulham is a solidly mid table side. They haven't had much to play for for a while They've still taken as possible uh seven points from a possible nine over the last three matches Then lastly, uh another reason i've been to fulham is that they've played united twice this season and they've played them really tough They played once in the league once in the f a cup quarter finals in the league At fulham united scored in the 96 minute to win two to one in the f a cup Which was also at old trafford fulham was up 1 0 after 70 minutes and then had two players sent off in the 72nd minute So we had two in one minute and then that led to united scoring three times against the nine man fulham over the final 15 minutes So i think there's a few reasons like fulham Now the rest on their side United finally get to let their foot off the gas a little bit before they play a cup final next weekend And then fulham's played united very tough that both the games they played so far this year So i like fulham to get at least a point out of this matchup And that's in the double chance market over if angel sport spoke plus 155 for fulham and draw bundled together Now we talked last week about how there was a bet on monday where you wanted to hold off and see what the lineup looked like And that's good because you could see what the the lineup looks like make sure all the guys are out there But also the the risk is that that number may move which is what happened last week the bet hit So that was good. Uh, do you want to hold off and see what Manchester united's lineup looks like before taking this? Or are you comfortable taking it now at plus 155? i'm comfortable taking it now at plus 155, but I'm gonna keep an eye on the market just sure because they're probably gonna give you a hint about what type of lineup united roll out they Have a way, you know with knowing these things before they happen. So Uh, but yeah, i'm i'm comfortable taking it at plus 155 Some loose lips in the teams about uh, who's gonna start on uh sunday can occasionally happen Is we I think we saw that with the line you were talking about last week Okay, so fulham and draw plus 155 and that one arsenal over two and a half goals plus 128 in the arsenal first half money line At minus 130. What about player props? What are you seeing there across sunday's action austin? So as we just talked about or as you just brought up Uh, 17 of the 20 teams have nothing to play for really so we could get some funky lineups And where I want to be patient and see lineups is with props sure both the props I have Are on a player to score or assist and I want to make sure that guy's on the lineup before I place the bet So the first one is in the arsenal and wolves match. I'm taking the kai Osaka to score or assist It's a minus 150 and that's a really nice number for a Their arsenals penalty taker in a match where they're massive favorites He's got 24. He's got 24 goals plus assist and 36 premier league starts and As I laid out earlier, I'm really back in arsenal if they score three There's gonna be a great chance that sake is involved in one way or another And as I said, he's their first choice penalty taker, which definitely helps things Another prop I'm into Is in the everton born with matchup? I'm into damari gray to score or assist which is priced at a minus 115 last I looked I'm back in gray under the assumption that dominate coverant lune isn't able to play due to injury Which seems likely as of now But if coverant lune is even just half fit with how important this matches for everton They'll probably put him out there if he's if coverant lune starts I'd rather take him to score assist at his price, which was 135 minus 135 last I looked But this is actually a great matchup for everton Born him at their last in the league by expected goal differential And as long as coverant lune is out gray is going to be on penalties He's recorded four shots and five shot creating actions over his past two matches And as we talked about at the jump Everton have everything to play for and will absolutely have their foot on the gas for 90 minutes to try to get a win Which is comforting to know Um, but also again want to say if coverant lune starts. I would rather take him to score or assist than gray Yeah, that's minus 135 on coverant lune right now Let's say that stays there. Would you take that one if he is in the lineup? Yeah, for sure. And I think if he starts that number will probably move okay Yeah, so I was going to say there there may be an edge to taking him Now but There's also a chance he doesn't start and they bring him on for 10 minutes at the end of the game. So I'm sure Yeah, that's just the risk you've taken if you're if you make this bet now And I don't know house rules for soccer as you know, it's not my uh my thing I'm assuming if a player does not appear bets are avoided, correct But if they appear for like one single minute step foot on the on the pitch Then the bets are our action, correct You're right. Yep. Okay some books handle it differently. But for fainter sports, like if he gets on the pitch at all That will stand Okay, so if we get Uh A dominant calvert lune in the lineup at minus 135. I had to find out the sheet. I couldn't He's minus 135. Austin does like that one if he does not go and it's demari gray instead He is minus 110 and going back to the arsenal one The kaisaka to score or assist minus 150 but again Check out lineups to see what they're looking like on sunday to ensure That things are as expected given it is the final match week of the year That is austin cast check out his work over at number fire dot com It's mentioned he has zpl bedding guide up right now Over at number fire if you want to read a written version of all this and check out his work There is always awesome love to get you back on here to talk some champions league maybe with the uh With the big ones come the championship game coming up there eventually because I have not gotten my fellow soccer just yet So, uh, even though we're done with the epl and I appreciate the work you've done Well, you're not off the hook yet. So you'll be back here in the very near future and I'm looking forward to that Thank you. Austin. Have a fantastic weekend Sounds good. Thank you. Jim you too Alrighty again, check out awesome on twitter at austin cast and he will be back with us I'm excited for that to talk more soccer in the near future because I've had a blast talk with him so far I don't want to give that up just yet. We're gonna dive into some baseball for friday and talk about Some money lines and strikeout props I like and just one second at first make a fast fast break to fandal during the mba playoffs because right now new customers Get a no sweat first bed up to $1,000. 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We're recording later in the day than typically so These are more efficient lines than usual so i would keep that in mind We are betting into a more mature market that is always going to be a downside But these are bets that are still showing value for me Relative to their markets of fandal sportsbook. The first one is a money line in the cardinals and guardians game I do like the cardinals money line at minus 102. This was A lot more favorable in favor of the cardinals lesson. I think it was plus 110 At one point it's now minus 102. So it has moved and you're not getting the best number But I do still show value there My model puts the cardinals win odds at 56.7 up from 50.5 apply it So a big gap which could mean I am a bit off here But a lot of wiggle room to be wrong and still be on the right side Shane beaver did bounce back in a pretty big way his most recent time out the last eight innings And you could dig into beaver's game log and say, okay His curve ball velocity increased five starts ago And maybe that's what led to this good outing a last time out However, when you look at the batted ball data for beaver in that time He is still letting up a ton of hard contact in that sample beaver's hard hit rate allowed is 54 He is facing a cardinals offense that has a 118 w RC plus against righties The guardians offense does not if he lefty as well. They're facing mathy liberator I think liberator looked really good in his first start. I look good in triple a so Even though this has moved to minus 102 I still think there's good value in the cardinals at that number So to me the cardinals the right side here minus 102 on the money line to top of the guardians for today The second money line is on a big ish underdog So understandable if you don't want to go there and if you want to scale this bet Which you should as always when the odds of hitting are lower I would totally understand but The second money line my money line. I like is the is the Rockies their money line is plus 176 against the Mets and The reason I feel good about this number is that my numbers are low on the rocky starter conor siebold I do not view them very positively And that does matter in the model despite being pretty low in siebold I'm still showing value on the Rockies here, which tells me I should probably have faith in what the model is saying The rocky is hitting is awful. They're starting pitching in this matchup is not good But they do have a pretty decent bullpen. Their defense is solid that helps aid things and those things do matter as well As far as the Mets go looking at their offense. Their offense has not been bad this year by any means. They have got a 106 w rc plus against righties I think they have some untap potential if they were to get guys like mark vientos in there if Brett Beatty starts to Get the positive regression. I think he's in store for so it's very possible My numbers are just selling the Mets here and that could be a thing, but they found rolling out sub-optimal lineups I'm okay batting into this situation where they just kind of keep on banging their head for better results max shares are still trying to find a groove His past two stars have been good, but they haven't been You know typical max shares are so I don't view this being typical max shares are right now the Rockies not a team want to be on super often personally, but There's always a tipping point where a bad team becomes a value and I think we've crossed that threshold here with the Rockies They're plus 176 to win. So again scale properly know that the odds this bet hits are well below 50 percent, but It's higher than the implied odds of plus 176 So to me the two best money lines for tonight are the Cardinals of minus 102 in the Rockies at plus 176 As far as strikeout props go if you've listened to the show here throughout this year, you know I tend to be on unders more often than overs. I'm looking at my like logs of Of bets so far this year. I've had a lot more unders than I've had overs However for today just kind of by circumstance Every strikeout prop I like isn't over. So we're going with four separate overs here for strikeout props and those begin With the with the Rangers at the Orioles I like John Gray over four and a half at minus 116 Which you can again get a fan dual sports book and now gray is a guy discussed unders on earlier on this year because Wasn't using a slider a lot and I thought that was a red flag because a lot of times You'll see guys cut back on slider usage when they're hurt and I thought that might have been a red flag for John gray but Three starts ago He cut back on his forcing fastball usage instead using more off speed stuff and It is a small sample, but that shift for gray Seems to be working out very well Across those three starts. He has had eight five and six strikeouts. His swinging strike rate is 13.6 percent Two of those starts came on the road. Which is where he's at for today. So He's not facing a bad offense. I actually like the Orioles a lot. I think they're a very good offense I don't want to go at them very often but With gray's new approach where he's cut back on that forcing fastball We've seen a much different version of him The numbers that stabilize quickly aka that's swinging strike rates are saying he's a different pitcher And he's gone over this number in all three starts. So it is a small sample But the market here is pretty low. So I would say gray over four and a strikeouts a good place to go And I bet I'm very okay making even though it is based on a pretty small sample The second strikeout profit I like is actually in an alternate market Uh, if you go to the twins and blue jays game I'm on louis varland now louis varland's baseline is over four and a half and minus 152 I show value in that personally But the alternate market to go with six plus strikeouts for varland is plus 144 And I do show value in that as well So i'm going to go louis varland over five and a half strikeouts or to get six plus strikeouts in the alt market at plus 144 Varland has been a different pitcher so far this year because his velo is up quite a bit from where it was last year And as a result of that increase velo his strikeouts are up across five starts varland has a 26.3 strikeout rates and that number is legitimized by his 13.4 percent swinging strike rates When you add the increased velocity varland has been getting a lot of strikeouts He's had six plus strikeouts in four out of his five starts Despite making just two starts at home. He is at home for tonight wind is slightly in a target field as well He's facing the blue jays again somewhere to john gray not a match If I really want to go out because they happen hitting the ball pretty well I think a lot of their batters are due for some positive regression And the strikeout rate for the blue jays against righties is just 21.8 percent. So I understand why the market is low here in varland It's not a great spot But given the increased velo given that it's plus 144 on the over I do like varland in this spot such me louis varland Six plus strikeouts a good place to go For a strikeout prop for tonight the final two strikeout props I like are both in the same game and there is some Uncorrelation when you take two overs in the same game But the roof is closed in arizona for tonight Which is a good thing because it should keep the ball from flying as well as a tip of the wood And I think both these guys just a bit undervalued So I like the overs on chris sale and brandon fought sales over is six and a half and plus 114 Foughts over three and a half strikeouts is minus 110 right now at vandal sportsbook Let's start things off here by talking about sale Vandal is above market on chris sale. So you could shop around and get over five and a half That's about minus 150 other places You can get that and I check the alternate markets at the sites to see if you can get a better number than plus one 14 on chris sale But I think the plus money on the over at a larger number is pretty tough to turn down I have sale projected at 7.51 strikeouts Which is why I am going to swing for the fences here at the seven plus strikeouts He increases forcing fastball usage four starts ago And it's led to a big spike in strikeouts in that four start sample sales strikeout rate is 30.8 He also has been going super deep in games. So I talked about gray with the decreased slider usage That's a red flag a green light is increased pitch count because it implies The pitcher feels good and the team feels good about having him go deep in games Especially for a guy with sale where health is a massive issue. I think to me that's a very good sign 110 pitches and 111 has passed two starts so I do think you can play this two ways if you want to go over five and a half at a Minus 150 or so number you can do that for sure I just think the preferred route is over six and a half at plus 114 Which you can get right now at fandals sportsbook because sale has been Much improved with the shift in his philosophy and been going super deep in games thoughts number is over three and a half at minus 110 and he's been pretty bad so far and That has translated to the strikeout department but I think his biggest struggles have been with hard contact and You don't necessarily need to Be dominant in that department to get an over on a strikeout profit three and a half The swinging strike rate for fought so far is 10.4 percent So with the strikeout rate being below 16 percent that does imply there is room for some upward movement And you look at his numbers in the miners. I think that would say the exact same thing Even with the the low strikeout rate fought has still been hovering around this number Again, the the market firm is three and a half He said three three five and three strikeouts in his first four games Now that means he's gone under this one in 75 percent, which is not ideal, but I think that based on the swinging striker we can expect his strike rates to increase as a result of that I have thought projected for 4.7 strikeouts It is a leap of faith given that he has not had strikeouts so far But I think the peripherals imply the underlying numbers imply that those will come soon He needs just four strikeouts to get the over here I've got him at 4.7. So I do like taking that So both fought and sale in the exact same game showing value for me So the four strikeout overs I like for tonight again weird because I don't typically get to overs But fought over three and a strikeouts minus 110 Sale over six and a strikeouts plus 114 both those in the diamondbacks and red stocks game I like varland in the alt markets over five and a strikeouts Plus 144 and then john gray over four and a strikeouts minus 116 all those available again at bandual sports book That is all that we have here for today and this week here on covering the spread No show coming up on monday because of the holidays So no show then back with you on Tuesday We'll talk some golf and uh, maybe some basketball with brandon gondola on tuesday as always to get these shows as they go live Make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast again If you want to check out some 8500 bets and talk some NASCAR as well We had dr. Nick giffen of the action network on to break down the coca-cola 600 and 8500 yesterday Find that in the covering the spread podcast feed and over on the fandom youtube page Big thank you to austin cast for swinging by breaking down e pl match week 38 find him on twitter at austin cast And check out his betting work over at number fire.com. I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s want to thank you all for tuning in wish you a fantastic weekend Be safe have some fun and we'll talk to you once again on tuesday Good luck with your bets across this weekend. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network