 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Week 18 is always a complex one for talking player props in the NFL because not only are you considering the typical stuff like volume efficiency Matchup, etc. But also you got away incentives. You've got away motivation You got away all this stuff try to identify value in the proper We're trying to break that down for today by talking to Tom Vecchio Getting is reading the player problem market across week 18 at least where props are posted and get you ready to hopefully get some Profitable best to round out the regular season. This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joint here as mentioned by Tom Vecchio Find them on Twitter at Tom underscore Vecchio one He is a writer for us over a Fandall research of course the host of prime time Tom along with the daily ISO Tom Happy Friday to you and happy final week of the regular season. How you doing today? I'm doing good things for having me Yes, certainly a really interesting week to break things down There's also a little bit of weather on top of things which also makes games that much more exciting Like you said a varying degree of motivation Incentives for a number of teams teams have motivation like the Vikings, but they also need a lot of help Yeah, so lots of breakdown Yeah And then there's Eagles like if the Cowboys are winning a halftime of the Eagles pull starters stuff like that Like there's a lot of crazy stuff that could go on There's like you said a snowstorm in Foxboro, which could be kind of cool I'd be under in that game and it honestly makes me a bit nervous With a 30 and a half we get a lot of snow that could lead to some funky stuff And I would like it to be as normal as possible So we need the I need the snow to chill out personally. It's like a handicap though I'm more straight up, but right and that storm also Could be impacting Some of the other East Coast games and you could it reach Connecticut or no, it's going to okay So you're snowed in this weekend is what you're saying. Maybe okay. That's my favorite kind of weekend is snowed in I like I like if I know that I can go out I feel guilty like oh, I'm not doing stuff I'm not you know being active and those things if I'm just stuck inside. It's so freeing. So I'm jealous Saturday games as well. So exactly get to watch man I'd stay and watch CJ Stroud terrible just a fate worse than death We're gonna talk about some key player props across week 18 and talk about whether all the key factors to consider You're in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the covering the spread podcast feed wherever you get your podcast a lot Of good stuff already in there right now. Thomas is breakdown of Colts versus Texans talking CJ Stroud and company in that one That's up in the covering the spread podcast feed along with fan will TV plus already later tomorrow We're gonna have tomorrow morning breakdown of the bills and dolphins Sunday night game via Tom as well So dedicated shows to the two key games for this week in your podcast feed our NFL week 18 Traditional betting preview with Dr. Feng is up along with our national championship preview for Monday talking Michigan Versus Washington all that stuff in the covering the spread podcast feed So go subscribe wherever you get your podcasts if you like what you hear leave us a five star rating on Apple Podcasts or Over on Spotify the NFL regular season is wrapping up But there is still time to get in on the action of fan dual America's number one sportsbook right now new customers get $150 and bonus bets guaranteed when you place a $5 bet That's 150 bucks and bonus bets win or lose the app is so easy to use and there are so many ways to bet like Lysing a parlays you can find bets in the new explore tab You make a parlay in the parlay hub the best way to find popular parlays and more So there's a fan dual and make your first bet a layup fan dual official partner of the NFL must be 21 plus and President select states fan dual is offering online sports waging in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas stark casino LLC First online real money wager only $10 first deposit required Bonus issued is now a trouble bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt Restrictions apply see terms that sportsbook dot fan dual comm gambling problem call 1 800 gambler What was a fan dual comm slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee and Virginia Call 1 800 next step or text next up to 5 3 3 4 2 in Arizona 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 7 over the CC PG dot org slash chat in Connecticut 1809 with it in Indiana 105 2 2 4700 visit chaos gambling health commie, Kansas 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in Louisiana visit MD gambling health at organ, Maryland 1 800 gambler net in West Virginia 105 2 2 4700 in Wyoming hope is here visit gambling helpline ma.org or call you 100 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support in Massachusetts or call 1 8 7 7 a hope of life or text to open Y in New York Tom let's begin things by talking about backups because we're gonna see some guys who are not traditional starters getting additional run this week Whether on teams limited or teams who are locked into their respective seats now not a guarantee We get props posted for these guys, so it might not matter, but when we do get props up for Some of these dudes. What process do you go through to evaluate expectations for those players? Assuming again, the props are eventually up for them Right the the overall rule I would say is that there's no One thing you can apply to every situation. They're all completely individual and you know a lot of this It kind of reminds me of almost as preseason Where some of it is is coach speak where we have to kind of sift through What we're what we're hearing what we're expecting then also I use whether it's just like personal intuition When I think of someone like Carson Wentz, you know set to start I'm you know, we know that the what the Rams plan to do They said they're gonna rest Stafford and and cup and Kyren Williams and Higby Who couldn't who is not resting initially, but there could be some rest for him in the future Yep, but for me one thing like okay Carson Wentz like he's probably gonna go out there and in my mind I think he wants to sling it because he wants a starting job next year So that has me interested in his prop But just because he's a backup starting this week is not the same for another backup starting in a different team So every situation is completely individual Completely unique. We have to use a little bit of coach speak and then you kind of have to use a little Educated guess of what you should be expecting from that team and that player ultimately. I Do think that Carson Wentz and Jeff Driscoll are identical So both teams should be converted to passcatcher or both players should be converted to passcatcher You know if Carson Wentz for a tight end, maybe six around the league a bit longer So I personally think they're the exact same thing. It's at least with those two Specifically you can go ahead and apply apples to apples, but I also think the key thing to remember is you don't have to bet any of this If you don't feel comfortable with your evaluation of a player or a situation then just don't bet it And again sports books might not do that either because they might not post lives Like I've been looking for Jeff Driscoll rushing lines all week and have found nothing so far. It's very frustrating I would love to bet those But we're not quite there yet. So way those situations like Tom said consider the key factors look at what coaches are saying about that stuff and Blend that together and decide is this worth betting? Do I think I have an edge and then if you say yes to that then take a look at the markets and see Where things are at now tied into that time is we have a lot of evolving situations for this week due to resting players Everything's on the table here So which evolving situations are most on your radar for checking out potential prob value again? Assuming we do eventually get markets posted for those respective situations one would be Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars his health what's going on with him because they absolutely need to win and He didn't play last week, and it's also not just okay. Trevor Lawrence is good to go I'm just under the assumption that even if he does play he's not like theoretically 100% healthy Right, and that just doesn't impact them it impacts the overall offensive efficiency and more importantly the props for the receiver So I'm gonna operate under the assumption as of now in Friday morning that he will play he won't be a hundred percent It is a good matchup going up against Tennessee in there and their secondary But it doesn't mean we're gonna see amazing high volume passing so at that point I would look to You know some players that have lower a dots if he's not going to throw in the ball as deep You know trying to get some modest reception totals reception yards rather than of going to his passing yards directly So I think that's number one number two. I would say Green Bay receivers They haven't been healthy for how long Christian Watson started the year with this hamstring issue hasn't played in a couple weeks But they need to play and win so looking at their receivers who's gonna be available who's actually gonna be out there and Then what do their yardish props look like? So those are probably two at least initially as of now and with the Packers one like you said, there's no real like Like I always try to look at most relevant samples. There isn't one for that Like there was a time this year when they had Dobbs Watson and read all healthy, but that was before read really like I think kind of came into his own He was also dealing with some injuries during that time and Watson snaps were up and down and stuff like that So like I can even look at that sample to decide what to expect for this game this week. It's just kind of like I don't know like there isn't a relevant sample on this guys You're kind of using your best guess with regards to what their Usages will look like right and I said the same thing about the the Texans offense For Saturday's game where tank del gets hurt and then Schultz misses some games and equal columns missed the game And then CJ Stroud also missed some time, right? So it's like we're dealing with these sample sizes It's like yeah theoretically you want to look at the offense since tank del got hurt Brown's hurt too right and and now like even since then like nothing lines up We're just like I can look at a one game sample size when Keenum was thrown the ball But that doesn't really matter right. I'm sure is that they've had a game where they've had Laramie Tunsel at left tackle and all their past catchers healthy this entire year Which is like something I'd love to look into net for next year like the Texans if they get like better Health luck could go bananas right like I there is no like great sample on those guys. So the injuries and And Again like triple Lawrence not being fully healthy isn't just about his props. It's also about the receivers props, right? And the problem there is like Christian Kirk could come off of IR. Yeah this week We'll know that Saturday by 4 p.m. Eastern like they'd have to activate him by then and I Based on the practice videos. I'm still skeptical that he gets activated personally It didn't look like he was super super spry out there. So I don't know I'm I'm still assuming he does not go or I think there's a good chance. He doesn't go at least personally with that one At least we'll at least know by Saturday. So I would bet that if we get word from a shifty bomb on Saturday night about Lawrence We know what Kirk situation is. I think we'll get props posted Saturday But I think that you're right in Because last week was also kind of a must-win game for the Jags and Lawrence couldn't play there And that to me is a red flag as far as expecting to be healthy for this week I always like I don't want to get like two tinfoil hat ebrids like am I thinking like okay They maybe they could sneak a win last week and just rest him knowing that they could bring him back Right and still have one more shot is like sometimes sometimes I think about that I don't know if it's I mean the opponent is pretty tough in the Panthers Right pretty tough team to try to topple there only a 26 nothing victory this week out there That was that was uh by the skin of their teeth for right Okay, let's take a look at some some props in our post in time When you look at take a look at the markets of fan dual sportsbook Where are you seeing value as far as yardage bets for week 18? That that starts with Dalton Schultz. I spoke about him yesterday I think this is a pretty Straightforward game for the Texans and I and I said I think we're going to see a modest amount of scoring in this game It's not going to be like a Thursday night game. That's super low. It's not going to fly over It's going to have a modest amount of scoring Schultz I like his role and again, we're dealing with different sample size where he missed some games You know CJ shroud was out but good usage rate 17.7 target share in the last three weeks getting some red zone looks he's playing on good stamps Uh, it just lines up against the Colts and their defense weak against tight ends Should be I'm going to save the number two option in the passing offense behind Miko Collins with tanked L out Keep things as simple as possible For the Texans this week and are you looking at the yardage number for Dalton Schultz or catches? What are you which market is the best one one and a half or it's up to 43 That's that's pretty close. I would say that's fine. I probably wouldn't go past that though Yeah, and I think that's fair too given again the Noah Brown injury Um, he's been getting a lot of looks when he's been out there. Now you take him out of the equation It's basically just Niko Collins and Dalton Schultz Robert Woods hasn't been a huge factor in this offense since like week two So I think that like they got to go somewhere. I'd expect them to be effective So like Schultz to me is a good player to turn to if you're looking for some value to take advantage of the Noah Brown injury right Yeah, okay, so the number for Schultz 43 and a half right now at fandall sportsbook I also hope you're right about the amount of scoring in this game side the under at 47 and a half So, uh, modest is a great word to me. I think that we should lean into uh, modest for this game Yeah, I think that game is gonna Start relatively slow and and I mentioned on Prime time time yesterday Like I think we're going to see a slow start and actually I have a lot of interest in a live over Sure I think it's going to be we're going to see like kind of like a scripted beginning as we see in some playoff games Then the scoring picks up later is at least a trend I think I've noticed over the past few playoffs where a lot of lack of scoring in the last Square in the second half so that's where a live over would be really interesting Just don't pick up too much. That's my one request there. Okay. Which of the yardage bets Are you eyeing for week 18? Chris Olava 70 and a half and I know it's not the best matchup on paper over 70 and half to be clear to be specific I know it's not the best matchup on paper, but This the Saints have to win And the best path to or their best offensive player Is chris Olava So when we're looking at the lack of health with chimera Yeah, it's not a match where I love to attack via the air with the falcons. They're actually pretty solid Olava is still the option. I need to get the ball to and I know he hasn't been fully healthy at times this year But 70 and half for a player that has a super deep a dot high air yards He could break this off in two or three catches and may not be A consistent option in the passing offense just because of the matchup, but he can get this done in in I would say again two three four catches And I think that there are a couple of factors I could encourage the Saints to be a bit more passive in this game The first ones the falcons are pretty good against the rush Like from a matchup perspective. They're pretty good there chimera didn't practice again thursday and like Season on the line Do you really want to be run in jmael williams? Kendra miller a lot as a way to like try to move the football against a good rush defense But then also chimera is one less target earner out there So like I think it kind of all leads not like to Olava But also like I think rashid Shahid alt markets are very interesting given the way that he's used He's like downfield roll It's pretty conducive to getting chunk yardage and urge. Same thing you were saying with olava. So I think Both those do make a lot of sense checking out olava in the traditional one setting a half But then rashid shahi alt markets just because I'd expect there to be A lot of passes and a potentially pretty concentrated targetry on those passes for the Saints Right, like you said, it's if chimera is there and not fully healthy it's still not the best matchup And just get the ball to your best players like they have to win keep things as simple as possible Like I would prefer teams that need to win and also have a great matchup But at least we have one of them. We have a team that needs to win Yeah, it's not the best matchup on paper, but olava still should be getting the ball Yep, and I think that should be a pretty fun game also indoors, which does help downfield receivers to for olava What about touchdown bats where you see in value there across week 18 So I mentioned green bay. I like romeo dobbs at plus 220 And yeah, you could say it depends on if christian watson is healthy and there's you know a few different permutations to what Coder cannot be happening for them But again, we're dealing with and and maybe dobbs has just been the healthiest receiver So maybe that's just why I like him and he doesn't have the highest red zone usage rate in recent weeks, but They need to win. It's got a good number and at least he's out there, which Christian watson, I think I'm not sure if you would agree is maybe the most talented receiver in that group Would you say or I like read I like read most, but um, I don't know watson He kind of fuggles me a bit is what I would say If that's not a down thing on watson, it's more so I just think jayden read rocks Okay, but when I'm looking at this game and we're looking at some of the odds for Touchdowns christian watson's number The fact that he's coming off a hamstring injury. He could be pulled at any second Which always worries me for hamstring injuries Reed's number is fine at plus 140 if he's out there But dobbs the fact that he's the healthiest and it's at plus 220 and they need to win Is what makes thing makes the most interesting for me I don't know why dobbs is so much longer than those guys given that like his like Heaviest usage area always feels like it's towards the end zone now Like his his red zone usage for the year is 19% which is not amazing by any means, but like it's always lower When he's getting targets, it's close to the goal line, right? so when i'm looking at this differential where I always look for these inefficiencies where like even if a team's not scoring where earlier in the year I talked about olave And he was like plus 175 for a touchdown and he's the highest usage. He's the highest red zone all these things Yeah, the saints often struggle at times, but he's still the number one receiver and plus 175 or whatever it is Is too high of a number, right? So i'm just looking at the green bay offense Dobbs at plus 220 is the standout option, right? My primary annoyance is that jade and reed who gets uh some red zone rush attempts is plus 140 I wish it were still longer. Those were great days back when they uh weren't totally hip to The way he was using the red zone, but alas maybe next year we can get some uh People sleeping on jade and reed once again. Where else has seen value as far as touchdowns go? this might be a hot take And we have a combination of two things a a team that absolutely needs to win With tampa bay and b we also have a milestone And I don't like to get too deep into Contracting incentives and this and that but mike evans is plus 100 for a touchdown. Do not like that number however Mike evans needs two touchdowns To set the box single season touchdown record The box also need to win Now mike evans breaking off Eight catches 134 yards and two touchdowns is something that we've seen from him for however many years So a plus 800 Mike evans for two touchdowns I don't think Is that far of a stretch considering they need to win? And he also happens to have this little milestone, which I don't know if he knows about I don't know Baker knows about all these things, but like it makes sense that they should be getting the ball to Their best receiver right so A very small sprinkle at plus 800 would be my hot take for the final week of the regular season Uh, I love that. I think that's very fun. Um, do you know what mike evans did against panthers first time they faced each other? I I would have to bring it up right now. I don't have it off the top of my head 162 yards on I think 12 targets and one touchdown there, but Clearly baker was cooking in that game Like he said, it's a high motivation spot for the buccaneers not as much so for the panthers jc horn I think will play but he also played in that first game about half the snaps He's his first game off injury, but like he was active for that game And it's also a baker revenge game like Like how can we not consider that what's baker to score two touchdowns? The baker also has a ton of incentives. Where is baker? They don't even have odds on baker to score twice Suspicious eight to one to score any touchdown. So uh baker eight to one to score a touchdown same odds as evans to score two Maybe we get a triple dip there with a baker one evans two for that one But I think that like again, it's you're taking advantage of a volatile wide receiver and Using his volatility to your advantage. I think that that is that is a fine way to look at things here So there are touchdown bets I have interest in but none of them are posted yet for some of these games And that's just a product of it being 18. There's also a ton of injuries For the for the Rams like I wouldn't hate taking a shot on a wence rushing touchdown. Sure Well, if he's if it gets posted who knows whatever might be Yeah, Pukinakua the quote from McVeigh was like he needs four catches and I think 29 yards Yeah, he does and then they're gonna be smart with him or whatever it is for it first four plays Is gonna be Pukinakua Pukinakua Pukinakua Pukinakua He's gonna play one series or two series at most and then he's out. So like I said at the beginning I think wence is going to try and sling it because he wants to put some good tape out there Because he wants to start a job next year Wence like going all out, you know Diving for the pylon for a touchdown wouldn't wouldn't surprise me. Yeah, I think that is a fun way to look at things And uh, right now no no numbers posted there are things to consider for that one Total's not super high 41 and a half from the rams are four point dogs So make sure you're weighing that when you see the wence number to decide, okay It's going to be a probably uh, not a huge Point output for the rams. So keep that in consideration for them But check out wence when he is supposed to see if you think there is value there Any other bets you're seeing tom as far as potentially values for week 18. Yeah, one more in that saturday game uh Colts Texans michael pitman Over six and a half receptions. It's minus 138. I Don't mind that at all. I don't mind some michael pitman alternate receptions You know looking back at his game log this year He is routinely piling up nine 10 12 14 targets in some of these games Then when we look at the Texans defense, they're solid against the run Right, they're solid against the run And moving the ball via jonathan taylor Is may not be effective. It's probably not the best path to them winning in a must-win game So why not go to your best offensive option? And I as I discussed on the pod yesterday Houston brings good pressure So if minch who's not going to be dropping back. We're not having time to drop back Pitman has a seven point nine e dot So he's going to be that consistent option as he's been all season piling up 10 12 targets And all of a sudden he has eight receptions. They may not be massive yards per reception just because You know his eight dots aren't super high and the pressure is going to be there But these these constant passes to him he could have eight receptions by halftime, right? And you mentioned the pass rush will Anderson didn't practice Tuesday or Wednesday But do you get the limited session in thursday? I think he'll go because he played last week So I think he'll be out there to kind of keep that pressure cooking on a Cold softens the line that's played really well this year So to their credit they could definitely hold up against a good pass rush But definitely worth considering with pitman the six and a half number you mentioned minus 138 on the over Checking out some alternate receptions for pitman To get a plus is plus 128 nine plus is two to one and 10 plus is plus 310 Preferred market for you tom there having seen the alt markets now. Do you want to go stick with the Seven plus or over six and a half or what do you think is the best route to attack pitman for receptions? It's probably six is over six naps is my main play But yeah, yeah, just taking a sprinkle at eight plus at plus 120 and I think is also viable Okay, so check out michael pitman check out the alt markets of that game And again check out what tom had to say about the game in full by checking out prime time tom in the prime time tom Prime time tom in the covering the spread podcast feed and along with his breakdown to bill's dolphins Which will be up tomorrow morning as well. That is tom vecchio Make sure you check him out on twitter at tom underscore Vecchio one check out prime time tom right here on the covering the spread podcast feed But also the daily iso you want to place another dfs on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed tom Appreciate the time as always. Good luck to you this weekend. We'll talk to you once again soon Thanks for having me All right, you can find tom again on twitter at tom underscore vecchio one I am on twitter at jim sonnis you can find me on threads at jim dot sonnis And you can find fan dual research on twitter at fan dual research again Don't forget a week 18 previews up in our college football national championship preview up as well Back with you once again monday to take our first look at the wild card round betting markets This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network