 Got it, you know But the market is actually Pricing in something else, right? The market is pricing in a lot more cuts by the end of the year So if you go back to the SL FR watch There we go. It's pricing in You know one two three four five. Yes, so we should be down by by the end of the year to three 4.75 to 4% you know, I mean by that range, whereas the Dot plot was looking at again 4.5 as an average, right? Or maybe just even slightly above that, you know, I mean So the market is pricing in more cuts and deeper cuts then then the Fed and so there's an opportunity there depending on if the Fed are If the Fed are correct, I would guess right so, you know, because the markets or if the if the markets correct Then they've already pretty much priced in you know, I mean the rate cuts, you know all the downside in terms of The the dollar depreciation Isn't nested How do I put it? Yeah, like I said, they've kind of priced in to a certain degree The the the dollar depreciation that doesn't mean that you know, it's gonna be it's gonna look like this Like it's just one price where you see sorry one seconds Where it's like remember things the price is moving moving options, right? So The market would say all right then well, we think that and just for argument's sake We're looking at a DXY and so, you know, the DXY and what they're saying is is by a certain price By certain time what should happen is is that the dollars if if you know The dollar will end up moving like this and then you'll see Something like this and then you'll see like that, right? And let's say for example This is the end of 2024 and so what the market will slowly start to do, right? Is they will begin to you know Price in the the rate cut already if their projections are fine So let's say for example where somewhere around, you know here I don't know right on the dollar index and that might be what I don't know what the dollar index is at the moment But let's just say it's maybe one or two something like that, right? one zero two zero two whatever is now This is the current pricing for the dollar if For example the they're correct about, you know, let's say for example five rate cuts Yeah, the dollar will stay between likely stay between maybe one or two and maybe something like, you know, 90 90 maybe 98. Let's just say for example, right? So That the market is saying, okay, that's the price Yeah, this is the the average of the dollar that's expensive and that's cheap Yeah, if we're correct about this now they will have to end up pricing the dollar higher, right? You have to be like a higher range Yeah, if for example, there's only three rate cuts Does that make sense so it might be actually between maybe one oh I don't know one oh four or one oh five for example to maybe one oh two. Yeah Because of free rate cuts does that make sense? So that so the so the opportunity now is just looking to see if If The market is wrong about the pricing and If it is then the market would have would have to reprice the dollar higher. Does that make sense? Yeah, that makes sense. Yeah. Oh, brilliant. Brilliant. Brilliant. Let me guess. I have a question actually. I'm sorry I'm sorry on your time, but It's it this is the time for it, you know, I mean, okay, great I Don't have asked this before but it's still a little bit unclear in my mind So in general for 2024 you would expect the US dollar to drop because the Fed will be dropping rates But let's say you want to trade against another currency that is also going to drop Or expect it to drop rates like the euro. Yeah, how do you how do you trade the euro US dollar in that case? Would you expect like a ranging market that is going slowly downward? Are you expecting a ranging market? How do you? So, oh, yeah, what's your bias, right? So then then there's the there's a few things a couple of things that you need to look for is the number of cuts Right. So the number of cuts that are likely to occur Yeah, versus the and also say versus but the and also the the The how deep are those cuts going to be right to the depth of those cuts? Right for the size of those cuts and so if you have Let's say and this is a great question. By the way, great question if you have the euro right are expected to cut four times and The dollar are expected to cut five Yeah, then on the surface you would likely buy the euro and Sell the dollar. Yeah, because you've got those amount of cuts But again, we need to understand the size of the cuts, right? So let's just say yeah, if the euro are cutting and by the end of their four cuts Maybe they've cut by I don't know the 3% let's just say but the Federal Reserve Have had, you know, they're planning on doing shallower cuts Yeah, and they only cut them 2% then in fact then in fact You probably want to sell the euro and buy the dollar because at the end of the day, it's really about This this takes probably more president the size of the cuts takes a bit more presidents than the number of cuts Simply because it's just, you know where interest rates are gonna be at the end of the cutting cycle Does that make sense? Yes, and is this like in the long term you're talking about now not yeah Yeah, because remember as well said yeah that we are we are Nobody knows what's gonna happen. So what we have to do is kind of buy the rumor, right or trade the rumor You know, I would say probably Maybe 80% of the time we're actually trading the rumor You know, I mean 70% of time because it's the expectation of of the cycle, right? It's the expectation of the cycle and because we're all we were pretty much in a state of not knowing although we do have Forecasts from banks even the banks, you know, don't necessarily call it, you know 100% and in recent times they've been a bit more wrong than they have been right on major trade ideas But ultimately when you think about it, they don't always have to be right about something Because whether it comes true or not as long as they understand When to get in when the rumor starts and maybe where to pivot when it looks like in fact that rumor Isn't gonna come true. Yeah, you can still make money You know, I mean, so it doesn't necessarily have to now the continuation of the trend or the cycle, right? Is why I wouldn't say cycle but the trend to the downside and this is why I always say the data needs to support the narrative Because if you if the narrative develops and it's okay Well, the dollar we're gonna be, you know cutting, you know, five times this year like the market thinks Then the data needs to support that it needs so inflation needs to come down, right? There needs to be, you know GDP for example needs to come down, right? And in terms of the contraction phase, right? And then that gives more credence to the five, you know, the number of cuts, right? And even will give credence to potentially the amount of Order size of the cuts. Yeah, but if you don't get the data supporting the narrative meaning that inflation remains sticky Or, you know coming in higher, right? You know, oh and and that's part of a trend as well by the way because you you know You get inflation trends and you get, you know, any trend, you know, we'll have pullbacks, right? So inflation isn't just a straight line down. You will have, you know Inflation go down go down go down and it might be a month or two or quarter where it actually ticks up But then, you know, the overall trend is still down. You know, I mean, but as long as Over the medium to long term this inflation and deflation do come into play as well as the same thing with the economic cycle And, you know, again in that economic cycle in a contraction phase, you will have moments where, you know The GDP will come in flat, for example, what happened with with Europe, right? and So there are maybe supporting periods where you will get that but if overall There's no data and data is still kind of supporting maybe the the fact that there is still a downtrend Then it gives validity to The the the rumor And that is really the way To trade, you know, I mean Rob because because because if you don't trade like that and you're always waiting for the data to support the narrative Yes, you can, you know, you can There are still opportunities to trade that way. Of course there are right and of course there is but That way is more You're not necessarily going to get the the meat and potatoes of the move Do you know, I mean it because because we really want to buy the rumor rather than buy when we when it's confirmed Do you know, I mean when that is confirmed? And that's the reason why it's really important also as well to understand where you are overall on this on a cycle Because if you understand where you are on a cutting cycle, then you can kind of Almost like filter out noise. You can kind of pick and choose and ken is a great example of this in terms of he's trading less Yeah, because he understands the cycle So he can kind of he's looking at it like well I'm looking at it from a very macro perspective and I'm going to pick my spots where I want to get short on the dollar So while everyone else is trying to think to themselves. All right. Well, shall I buy the dollar this week? Shall I sell the dollar this week? All ken's doing because he understands the overall cycle Yeah, and and other traders like ken as well who have this perspective The day to day or even the week to week trading doesn't necessarily even matter because on a pullback Knowing that we're on the downtrend You're just looking at where the major levels are You know, I mean and then you're looking at that because it's coming the cutting cycle is coming like night follows day It's just a case of obviously timing But if you can kind of have the the patience and the perspective to Really kind of pick exactly where you want to and look at the macro cycles and look at the bigger picture Then you don't need to necessarily even trade every day because that could be your bread and butter, right? Whereas traders are taking maybe, you know, 20 trades in maybe, you know a month or two, right? Higher time frame traders. You can only maybe look for just one trade Or two trades and that one or two trade Can make as much as you know And more right then someone who's taking 10 or 15 or 20 trades and I always say I don't admit maybe you've heard me say this in the past But I say the number of trades you take does not equate to the amount of profit that you will make Yeah, so the number of trades you take does not equate to the amount of profit you make we typically, you know Come from working backgrounds, right in terms of the more effort we put into something Yeah, is the more output we expect, right? So if I work, you know 20 hours today 16 hours a day, right? Then I expect more pay than someone who works one, you know one hour or two hours, right? That's just the natural thing that we that we've learned is In our working adult life, right? And then some countries working children life And maybe it's not always like that in all in all countries, of course But the point being is this in trading it's not that Right people mistake Activity with accomplishment like they always thought that they have to be active in the market and if they're bored then they're doing something wrong No, it's not it doesn't work like that. It's all about the right opportunity And the right opportunity doesn't come around every day or every week for some people when everyone's opportunity is different Yeah, so some people's opportunity on the day trading they see multiple opportunities But that's not the same as you know a higher time frame trader's opportunity, right? The higher time frame trader is looking for that big move for that one where it's like, ah, okay This is you know, this is the trade that I'm looking for that's going to run for hundreds if not a thousand pips, right? And so everybody has to decide What type of trader they are or they want to be and as I said just because Someone like ken might take maybe one trade a month Maybe one trade a year or something like that. Yeah it does not equate To the fact that he's going to make any less money than somebody who takes, you know A thousand trades that year who could still end up at the end of the year flat or even worse You know in a negative So I know we're going up in a bit of a tangent by the way Against his Liverpool genius But it's it's it's I think it's it's really important to have that type of perspective when we talk about, you know You know trading and trying not to get caught up in these You know in the in the day-to-day price action and things like that but overall Going back to what I was saying and answering your question Sid is that really it does come down to the number of cuts, but also the the The size of the cuts and again What do we expect to see on a on a price chart if we see for example this start to play out I would expect on the euro dollar. Yeah Let's say this does come out. Yeah EU I would expect to see the chart do something like this overall right a gradual You know, I mean because both are cutting but Overall, you would think that the because the dollar is cutting less You will see something like this now if for example, you see You know that the the dollar is not cutting at all Right and the euro we're going to cut, you know four times this year Right when it's holding on one is one is cutting then you would expect to see something like this A massive trend if you expect the central banks to be cutting the same for example, you know, they're cutting five times And you know, they're the the size of the cut should end up maybe two by the end by the time they, you know Finish their five cuts Then what would you expect two central banks cutting at the same, you know the same Pace and at the same size then you would expect something like this Yeah That's it. Yeah, I see it. I see it Okay, this is very useful. Yeah Yeah, yeah, it is and um, you'll see it play out and in fact I'm going to show you remind me later on to show you an example of this not necessarily with rate cuts, but with actual price action On currency pairs. Yeah, and when we talk about, you know, the size of moves as well as or mainly mainly the size of moves And how it plays out on on a price chart But uh, but but yeah, but great question, by the way very question a good question then we'll uh And uh, I'll I'll get to that a bit later. Right. So we spent enough time on the dollar the dollar overall and welcome to every