 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The morning market kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good Wednesday morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN. Just after 9 a.m. Eastern time, we got 24 minutes to go until the start of trading. It is Fed Day. We got an announcement. 2 p.m. Eastern time today, press conference with Chairman Powell to 30 p.m. Eastern time, all but expected they will stay the course in terms of no cuts, no hikes, probability wise, coming down the line. But boy, it's gonna be interesting to see what the chairman has to say about those next meetings. The March meeting, March 20th, coming down the line as well. We will find out at 2 p.m. Eastern time today, we kick things off. A little bit of negative action. The trio last night, Microsoft, AMD, and Google. Last I checked, I think they're all trading down slightly right now. You get the NASDAQ 100 off 200 points. We jump to Microsoft shares. There's a little bit of volatility for you. We're gonna go through the indices, but you gotta get to these three to kick things off. Microsoft right now, only down to about $2, pretty decent earnings from Microsoft, man. We'll get into them. AMD, a little bit of a different story. They guide a little bit lower than what you're thinking in the next quarter, and Google, a little bit of a different story as well, man. Look at that drop off from about 153 to 144 this morning, 44 this morning. So to put those in context, that's the reason why you got a little negative action to kick things off. It's gonna be about half a percent of 27 points. We got a lot this morning. We got ADP, we got loans. We have bonds going with market in terms of borrowing. We have a lot to put it lightly. NASDAQ 100, the Azure Acceleration from last night, we were at about 17,600. We're at about 17,400 right now, 17,390. We're off by 1.1%. The Dow in positive territory, up by 40 points, up by a 10th of a percent in the Russell. Negative by three, sitting right just above 2,000. Bitcoin pulls back a bit. We were up to 44,000 and change yesterday. We're back to 42,880. Crude, a little bit of volatility as well. We're back above $77. We were just below that level. When negative by 56 cents on the session, you see the volatility yesterday, right? 8.30 in the morning, we're under 76. You make it above 78. We're sitting at 77.29. You jump over to gold. Gold, up another $10, man, to 2,060. You hit 2,068 yesterday. You jump over to silver. Silver this morning, basically flat. You're up by four pennies, 23.26. And you jump over to notes and bonds. What do we got? We got higher price. You got lower yield. And we got a 10-year, 4.01%. We'll call 4% for even numbers, man. The yield on that 10-year, 4% as we come into a very important day for the Federal Reserve with their announcement at 2 p.m. Eastern time, as I mentioned, and press conference at 2.30 p.m. Eastern time to follow. We will stream that press conference live on the air today. My dad will be back in the chair from three till four today as well. So it'll be good action. We're gonna have live action across the board, man. Dollar index, weaker yields, weaker dollar, right? That's what's gonna happen, folks. When we see these yields pull back, you're gonna see dollar weakness. Yes, anything can happen, okay? Those relationships don't have to exist in perpetuity. But guess what? That's the way the world works, man. If there are lower yields in the U.S., you're gonna have less demand to pursue those yields. Therefore, you're gonna need less dollars to pursue those yields in the notes and bonds. And we have yields dropping at about 4%, 10324. On the dollar index this morning, and let's jump over the VIX, 1325. Now remember, the VIX is predicated on the SPY, folks, okay? It's not predicated on the NASDAQ 100. You check out the VIX on the NASDAQ 100. You're gonna probably see some elevated levels because of the volatility going on in some of those tech stocks with the NASDAQ 100 down almost 200 points to kick things off. And let's get into it, man. And where do we kick it off? Let's do it with Microsoft. Biggest company in the world out there. And they get through their earnings, is one way to put it, and boy, we're gonna talk to our man, Kevin Hinks, coming up after the first break. He put it well yesterday, talking about PE ratios, right? Talking about growth, talking about that Azure cloud. Folks, they did not decelerate their growth, which is an amazing feat when you think about the fact that they were growing at 29% the previous quarter, and the Azure cloud service is now growing at 30%. My goodness. Revenue, company-wide, rising 18% to $62 billion. The profit, $2.93 a share. Market was looking for about $278 a share on $61.1 billion, so they beat across the board. And yeah, and they just chop around. So that's a great indication, though, man, of the expectations on these equities. You see the volatility spike, that 416 spike probably had to do with the pickup, the fact that, I mean, you don't have to be a genius in order to cherry pick what you're gonna look for on that earnings event. And what you wanted to look for was what is their growth in cloud? Initially, what is their growth in cloud? 30% versus 29, trade me higher. But it's short-lived, and we're actually coming in almost flat from Microsoft shares on the open at about 408. Important to remember how far this thing has risen. Back it up a year ago to 242, we're sitting at 408. Just last earnings, right? We were at about 325. So you survive the earnings that they had to in terms of expectations, sky high, for this equity to put it lightly, right? And they have a lot of talk here in terms of what's gonna happen in the future. They're gonna bake AI into a variety of marquee products, including Azure, Office, Windows, starting to pay off. Yeah, my goodness. 30% for Azure to put it lightly. Now, jumping around. Let's see, we had ADP. All right, we're gonna jump to AMD in a second because that's a different story. They got some problems. Here we go, this is the chart I wanted to get to before we do. These are your sky high expectations, okay? You got Microsoft in the black here. You have Alphabet Google in the red. You have AMD in the blue, and you got the S&P in the green, okay? This is going back normalized as of January of 2023. Okay, this is just going back a year, folks. Just 12 months, you see the S&P above 20%. You see Google pushing almost 60. You got Microsoft up there at 70% returns, and you have AMD up there at 140% returns. We know the chip stocks have been bonkers, okay? So we go over Microsoft, they survive their earnings. What's happening with AMD, you ask? Not the same deal, man. All right, AMD's gonna have some issues here, folks. Here's the run up on AMD. Now what's interesting here is they already completed their ADB CDD. I've been talking about this on the program recently. Some of the other equities have a little bit more room to go. AMD has completed. You back it up on a three-year weekly. Your A point, about 60 bucks. Your B point, the highs back there in the middle of 2023. You're talking about about 132. That's about a $72 run from your A point to your B point. You pull all the way back to the price of about 94. And yeah, that's gonna push you to about 168, folks. We're opening at 165, so you're already below that level, but AMD, tough go-around. We jump over to them. And what have they got going on? Week forecast over shadows prospects. You don't wanna be forecast in week right now when you're up 140% over the last 12 months, folks. They follow Intel, a downbeat sales outlook. The push into a NVIDIA-style processor still early in the days. And yeah, they gotta miss, man. So first quarter revenue is gonna come in at 5.4 billion. The market was looking for 5.77. Do you remember how NVIDIA has been crushing it to the tune of just like billions of dollars in a beat? No, they miss, folks. They miss by $400 million in 90 days coming up. The 90 days we're in right now, okay? And yeah, analysts had estimated an echo. We're talking about a downbeat. They're lower, and we're gonna get into this, man, because they're looking for weak numbers compared to what the market's looking for. Be careful on AMD, folks. We're gonna talk some Google. We got a lot of equities to cover. We'll come back with our man, Kevin Hinks from the Schwab Network. Folks, stay tuned. We'll be right back in three minutes. Don't go away. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pesavento on stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years' experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos, and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. TFNN.com, educating investors. TFNN has launched the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours, the Tiger's Den, available to all tigers and tigers for just $1 for the year. There's no cash or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago and the student has now become the master. Steve won the prestigious Timer of the Year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019, finishing it number two for the year. An amazing accomplishment. Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his Mastering Probability newsletter. Steve's award-winning newsletter, Mastering Probability, is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon. Sign up for Steve's Market Newsletter, Mastering Probability, and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars absolutely free. At TFNN, all our newsletters come with a 30-day money-back guarantee, so you have absolutely nothing to worry about. Visit TFNN.com and try Mastering Probability 30 Days Risk-Free Today. TFNN, Educating Investors. Folks, we have markets in negative territory with the S&Ps off 26, Nasdaq 100 off about 196. You get the Dow up 83 points to talk about some of the market action folks. Let's jump over to our man, Kevin Hinks. You can check out Fast Market from the Schwab Network. Every trading day, folks, right here on Tiger TV, 12 noon Eastern time. We're right in the heat of earning season. They walk you through hypothetical trade setups. If you ever want to learn about options, you want to learn about premium. It's a great time to do it as you're in earning season, and we're in a thick of it, and the market digesting some earnings this morning. Kevin Hinks, good morning. Good morning, Tommy O'Brien. Yeah, a lot going on on a said day. I'm sure the focus late this morning will switch to the Fed, but right now, we're in the market a little soft. We're looking at economic data, not crazy big there, but 80 feet bit lighter, the 107,000 job employment cost. Something the Fed looks at in terms of compensation was slightly lower than expected, up 0.9 for the quarter and 4.2% for the year. But interesting, Tommy, you've got Microsoft, AMD, and Google Alphabet down. You've got Starbucks, Boeing, and Skyworks up this morning. So, as I roll stock market, as they're selling the things that have rallied up and buying the things that have sold off, frankly. Yeah, remarkable. We've got the NASDAQ 100, man. You're off more than a percent right now. 1.1, meanwhile, you've got the Dow in positive territory as we inch towards 38,700 on the Dow futures right now in that thinkorswim platform. Microsoft, man, we talked about it yesterday. Remarkable, they come in with 30% growth. Kevin, we talked about the market hates decelerating growth. They're not doing decelerating growth right now. 30% from Microsoft. They take it in stride. Expectations, like you said, were sky high, expectations at least pre-market as you're chopping around near yesterday's close. I wanted to get your take, if you will, on AMD because they seem like, you know, Google's lower as well, but AMD, man, up almost like 140% the last year and seems like they missed the mark on their forecast. What do you think about some of those numbers, man? As you got AMD, down about $8, it looks like pre-market from where they were yesterday. First and foremost, all those three companies that you mentioned, Microsoft, AMD, and Google Alphabet all had spectacular numbers. But these stocks have run a long way. Microsoft numbers were impressive, but the valuations are what aren't there yet. And so, you know, Microsoft frankly isn't down that much to start today. AMD is down a little more. Tommy, these stocks have run so far. The valuations are so high that again, like I said before, at some point I want to be long every stock, at some point I want to be short every stock, Tommy. It's a great point, man. And we hear it often and I appreciate you preaching it often because people got to hear it. Because not a lot of people hear it, man. And it's remarkable the expectations on these equities. I mean, you look at it like we talked about yesterday. 30% growth. They're accelerating growth in the cloud and the stock doesn't move up. Which is, I think that says a lot when you're dealing with the numbers that they're dealing with. Tens of billions of dollars and growing them at about 30%. I mean, company-wide, I think they had something like 18% revenue growth. Sponkers from Microsoft. The company that they are. As you mentioned, man, we take that in stride. As we move towards the day, we're going to move towards 2pm eastern time today with Chairman Powell. You talked about some of the numbers we got this morning. Wages, not going up as much as we may had seen in the past to put it lightly on those ADP numbers. We got the jobs on Friday. As a trader, where's your head at for this afternoon? Come to 2.30 probably going to be the main event with the press conference to follow. Yeah. How does Jerome Powell's comments affect in half of the year? That's what we'll have a better picture of by the end of the day. Now, he's going to say data-dependent. But, but, but, but. So, I think Jerome Powell historically has been a good delivery for data. He's got yields that have come significantly down on our eyes. It's going to be interesting how he keeps the member. He's only got one fear and that is reigniting inflation. So, does he speak holistically or middle of the road? Or does, remember though, does he stay with that? That's what we'll know around 2.30 eastern. And it's going to be the main event. That's for sure, at least today. And then we just march forward with some more earnings and some more jobs numbers. Pretty action-packed week to put it lightly. With that in mind, I know you guys talk some equities on the program Fast Market at 12. Kevin, do you have a few equities lined up for today's program? We're going to talk Qualcomm today. Lex Holy is going to do presentation on Royal Caribbean, the cruise lines which are on fire lately. And then we'll get Honeywell, a big industrial that we don't talk about very much but we'll look at Honeywell in the final segment. So, gearing up for tomorrow's another big day of earnings release, but Qualcomm today and RCL. And Honeywell, Tommy. Nice. And look at Royal Caribbean, man. Look at the run this thing is on, right? From 40 bucks last year. Yeah, I had to check to make sure I had the right equity. Up to 126, I tell you, Kevin, we take Tommy to the Tampa Aquarium occasionally. It's called the Florida Aquarium, right in the middle of Tampa, right at the port there. We were there a week ago. We're going down the elevator from the parking garage. Two days there, enormous ship out there. And yeah, it's a Royal Caribbean ship. They're going on a four-day trip to Cozumelis. I'm going to have to check that out, man. Nice ship right there. Anyway, Royal Caribbean. Kevin, I appreciate the time. The mornings don't get much busier than this morning, man. We look forward to the program Fast Market at 12 today and we'll talk to you tomorrow, man. Have a good day, Tommy. Thanks for having me on. Always a pleasure, folks. Check it out. Great commentary as always. We appreciate Kevin coming on. They'll do Fast Market at 12 today and you heard it. They're talking three grade stocks and look at that acceleration, man. Look at that, right? Right back up to where we were at the beginning of COVID. Absolutely remarkable. You get that double bottom down there. Don't tell me technicals don't matter, man. When you're talking about a level, we reach 3109 and yeah, you got a couple tails there that bring you down to 22 bucks in 19 at the heart when COVID was ceasing to exist in terms of travel, cruises and you get it all back, man. Royal Caribbean up to 126 and yeah, we got a nice ramp. Occasionally, when we go to the aquarium, which is right there in the middle of that port area, you got a couple cruise ships and it's always cool because they look so big and in the grand scheme of things, they're probably not gigantic in terms of Royal Caribbean. You know, you're only talking about a cruise ship that's doing a four-day to Cozumel. Nonetheless, they're full, man. We saw everybody getting on that ship and yeah, the chart would say it for Royal Caribbean. All right. We jump back to the market as we get the tech stocks continuing to slide NASDAQ 100 off 203 right now. We jump back. Let's see where we're doing. Microsoft shares. We got a lot to talk about, man. We haven't even talked about Elon Musk getting a retroactive $55 billion pay cut overnight. How about that, right? Microsoft shares down about $2 to 406.48. We jump to AMD shares 164.76. Now, boy, this thing's five bucks off the lows. Okay. So they're not out of the woodworks yet in terms of the market buying the dip and let's just jump back real quick to those AMD numbers. The part I wanted to get to, which I didn't quite get to. Yeah. So they're coming for NVIDIA, of course. They're talking about the MI 300 processors that can challenge the dominance of NVIDIA and it's H100. That's NVIDIA's chips. Okay. You get into the numbers here. Okay. Yeah. Here's the No. All right. I'm going to find it during the break. Here we are. These are the numbers I want to hear. So AMD is predicting sales of more than $3.5 billion of the MI 300 this year. Okay. That's up from an earlier forecast of $2 billion. But here's the kicker as we come into the break, folks. Wall Street have been predicting numbers as high as $8 billion. Keep that in mind when you look at this stock on this equity, where they go from there. Okay. They had an earlier forecast of $2 billion, but NVIDIA has set the bar extremely high when they are beating expectations sometimes by billions and billions of dollars. AMD, not quite yet. Nonetheless, we're slightly in the red. It's going to be an interesting open. Stay tuned, folks. We're coming back. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger's Den hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. And now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den available to all Tigers and Tigresses for just $1 for the year. There's no cash or added costs when you join our community of traders. In the Tiger's Den, you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas, interact with other Tigers and Tigresses as they share trading ideas, news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day, even at night and on the weekends. The Tiger's Den at Discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well, so it's always at your reach. To sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders, just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Currencies, commodities and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger 4x report. Teddy Kegstad breaks down the 4x markets every Monday using his 30 plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures, 4x, stocks and options. Teddy releases his weekly Tiger 4x report every Monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs including the Dollar Index, the Euro Dollar, Pound Dollar, Dollar Swiss, Dollar Yen as well as many more and he also has weekly coverage of the crude oil market and the 30 year T-bonds as they both influence 4x markets tremendously. When you sign up for the Tiger 4x report you also gain instant access to Teddy's 60 minute webinar archive, he just hosted 4x strategies and fundamentals what is behind the Tiger 4x report. For all the details and to start your 30 day Tiger 4x report subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com TFNN Educating Investors TFNN Educating Investors Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger 4x. Alright folks, we got markets open right now, you got an S&P down about 25 points, you get the Nasdaq 100 off 203, let's get the first glimpse of how these equities are trading Microsoft, biggest equity in the world or positive territory, congrats to Microsoft shares trading higher. That is our growth man, just remarkable as Kevin put it, remarkable numbers across the board but expectations are everything but when you're accelerating growth in Azure absolutely wild. Now, we're jumping around, but I'm going to get back to Microsoft for a second. AI demand boosted that growth, and this is talking about revenue growth, talking about Azure cloud jump 30%, AI demand boosted that growth rate by 6 percentage points, that's the CFO talking about. That was up from 3 percentage points the previous quarter, so the last quarter AI boost cloud growth by 3%. This quarter, it boosted by 6%. It is extraordinary, you shouldn't have to have an analyst tell you that that's absolutely extraordinary that they're accelerating that growth up when you're dealing with the numbers that you are. Microsoft did not disclose how much it expected AI to bolster Azure in the current period. Now, at some point they're not going to be able to accelerate it, so be careful. Worthy early ages and this is going to take a while. This is the last part of the Microsoft story I wanted to get to. Despite momentum, Wall Street wanted more clarity on how much AI will contribute to the financial performance going forward. Well, I wouldn't say much. They didn't want much more. Microsoft is positive after the run they've had. Investors want them to quantify the AI potential over the next couple years. Well, of course they do. Investors want everything to be laid out in forecasts so they can model those forecasts to the price of the equity and then they can go forward. If you're not forecasting it's very difficult. In terms of AI contribution from Microsoft, okay that's not the way this is going to work and he's talking about how Nvidia has just crushed it already with sales exploding. This is going to be a slower slog than maybe some might have anticipated. So heed those warnings, man. They're growing at 3%. They're growing at 6%. Quarter by quarter on AI they're growing at 30% in Azure right now in completion and they're talking about, hey be careful here because this isn't going to happen overnight we're going to incorporate this. It's going to be a slower slog as we go forward to put it lightly, right? Man, pretty remarkable. Nonetheless Microsoft shares positive territory basically flat. AMD different story down about 4% but again this equities run 140% okay. You jump over to Google shares they're down by 5.7% now you jump to the other side of that you got Boeing shares. They're up by 3% right now. 206.40 from a low of about 198 pre-market you jump over to Starbucks shares they are higher they give back some of that gain you're up about 3.3% to kick things off for Starbucks shares excuse me and as we jump around, alright what else do we have? Now we have our MantettiKegs.com coming up next break folks we're going to talk some forex. Wednesdays are a great day, man. We always got so many great earnings excuse me. Economic stuff happening right? It's Fed Day. On our top of that we get some action across the board with earnings but what I want to talk about is I want to talk a little bit of jobs. So we get the jobs number on Friday, right? ADP is out today. Private payrolls, US companies add fewer jobs than forecast now this is the argument that the Fed has to get going here okay we're seeing weakness we're seeing inflation decelerate still there but it's decelerating right and the Fed has the potential to lay the ground work today for those cuts okay they don't have the potential to start cutting today they just haven't laid it out they don't want to surprise the market to that degree. Next meeting is March 20th my birthday don't forget it and that's the one that all the attention is going to be on when Chairman Powell starts speaking at 2.30 Eastern time but private payroll is 107,000 in January down excuse me from a downwardly revised 158 so down from 158 in December which was also downwardly revised median estimate was looking for about 150,000 nominal wage growth continuing to slow and that's the last number I'm going to get to here you got talk about wages annual wage increases for workers who switch jobs 7.2% in January the smallest gain since May of 2021 pay growth also cooling for people that stay in the same jobs now I remember folks when those numbers were 7% for staying in the same job and 14% for changing jobs so the trajectory is on the Fed side here but when are they going to make that change now you jump over to the CME Fed watch tool okay now I'm going to walk you through this real briefly I'm going to post this in the Tiger's Den as well I posted a couple days ago it's a cool tool to play with man to see where the market is and boy this market's got some expectations here when you talk about cuts that are priced in first we look at today's meeting okay this is the target rate probabilities for the meeting today January 31st 2024 last day in January 98% chance they don't move 2.1% chance they cut 1 out of 50 shot they cut yeah that's probably real right you got to have a little bit of a tail risk out there so it's about a 2.1% chance they cut and the range they're at right now is 5.25 to 5.5% that is the FOMC rate 5.25 to 5.5 okay remember that we're on the top left we're looking at the January meeting let's go out to March because this is what they're going to be talking about okay in March the market's pricing in 44.6% chance they stay 54.3% chance they cut and there's an outlier risk that somehow they cut twice by the time we get to that March meeting resulting in a 50 basis point cut probably not likely but you see the case man the market already a probability greater than 50% that they're possibly going to cut in March and if they're going to cut in March you're going to hear some words this afternoon from chairman Powell to give you those expectations to get the market rolling now this is where things get really interesting in my opinion you get out to May less than a 10% chance the Fed has not cut by May only a 10% chance that when we get the May meeting May 1st that the Fed still remains where they are and where are they going to be really up in the air with whether we're going to get one cut or two cuts by May that's right 46% chance that we get one cut by May 42% chance that you get a March and a May cut most probable likely scenario to get two cuts by then you want to keep going let's keep going man because we talked about the June meeting right maybe they start cutting in June boy the market doesn't think that's possible man there is only an 8% chance folks check this out there is a 0% chance right now five and a quarter to 5.5% does not show up on this chart because it is a 0% chance in terms of what is priced in for cuts okay by June there's only an 8% chance that they've only cut once there's a 45% chance that they have 50 basis points of cuts by the June meeting and there is a 45% chance as well that by the time we get the June meeting there are three cuts I think the markets getting a little bit ahead of themselves but I'm trying to just show you how remarkable what is priced into this market so get ready folks it is coming right there's a 50-50 chance that by June we either get two cuts or three in the market right now doesn't mean it's going to play out the market has been fantastically wrong on many occasions but when you start going down the line and let's go to July you go further than that things just get bonkers okay by July 45% chance we get three cuts by July 38% chance we get a full percentage point of cuts by July much more aggressive than what the Fed has indicated but we might get an update we don't get dot plots today or anything like that but boy keep your eye on this man going to be interesting to see what this looks like as of 3pm eastern time today after the chairman has spoken maybe by 4 o'clock eastern time today all right we jump to yields on the heels of that look at this thing man higher price rocking as we got the 10 year right now flirting with about 4% stay tuned folks we're going to be talking some currencies we'll talk some commodities we're coming back with teddy kegs that don't go away folks TFNN has just launched their new trading room the Tiger's Den hosted at discord TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours and now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den available to all tigers and tigers for just one dollar for the year there's no cash or added costs when you join our community of traders in the Tiger's Den you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas interact with other tigers and tigers as they share trading ideas news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day even at night and on the weekends the Tiger's Den at discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well so it's always at your reach to sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders just visit the front page of TFNN.com you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com the opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave the Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman and your inbox every day first time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up TFNN.com Educating Investors Will the S&P 500 continue to climb for bold trades on US large cap stocks in either direction trade SPXL SPUU or SPXS directions daily S&P 500 bull and bear leveraged ETFs direction leveraged ETFs an investor should carefully consider a funds investment objective risks charges and expenses before investing a funds prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a funds prospectus and summary prospectus call 866-476-7523 or visit directioninvestments.com a funds prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor for side fund services LLC this program is brought to you by Vista Gold traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ welcome back folks we got action everywhere right now S&P is off by 26 and look at the action and yields man as we jump around we got the 10 year spiking now up 24 ticks you have a yield under 3.96 man things are moving quickly you jump over to the dollar index we're down we're going to get a 102 handle by the time we talk to Teddy and let's do it folks head on over to the front page of TFNN right under the newsletter newsletter tab you can find the tiger forex report Teddy's outstanding report he puts out every Monday with updates throughout the week when warranted and don't forget he's got a couple of great webinars out there under the services tab talking about capitalizing on time with calendar stock option spreads as well as Japanese candlestick pattern stock in option strategies and it's always I always say Wednesday is a great day Teddy we got some action and boy we got some action today good morning good morning Tommy boy quite the move let's let's kick it off if we can with with maybe yields okay we got the drop going on I mean you tell me where you want to kick it off I know they're all related but boy we have a 3.95 handle 3.95 handle and by the time I let you talk we may have the dollar index with the 102 handle Teddy what do you want where do you want to kick it off man well I think interest rates is really obviously the place to start with today since it's a day so I'm now I've been watching them all week very tightly and the one thing I noticed especially on Monday and yesterday particularly was that the euro now not to confuse the euro dollar currency the euro dollar future okay that's the interest rate future okay because there is a euro currency future this is the interest rate that's a very short term it's a very long term short it's a short term rate that has multiple months over multiple years okay so then I looked at the 2 year the 5 year the 10 and the 30 year interestingly enough the short terms are really leading the charge yesterday meaning that the spreads were out of whack and they started to catch up mid-morning which meant now when a spread is out of whack what that means is that a spread is normally trading along either trending whatever but when it gets out of whack it totally breaks away from that line okay so yesterday that happened okay the short terms are driving yields down the 30 year was dragging okay then all of a sudden you could see in the currencies that they were beaten up so what's the reality with that well the short terms weren't budging then it was a nice little buy trade there meaning sell versus the dollar so like you saw euro and the pound and a couple of their currencies they've been going sideways but intraday they started to lift because those interest rates spread started to come back and play today fast forward we are now back in line when I say that we're back in line it means like if you look at it like you can pretty much eyeball it on a daily basis when they start to move and when you have to look at the relationships the bonds will have typically let's say if they're up 21 ticks the 10 year will be up 15 the same is kind of like for like the 2 year and the 5 year so let's say the 2 year is up or let's say the 5 year is up 10 ticks well the 2 year is going to be probably up about 6 ticks okay 5 ticks so in that relationship they're pretty much back in line coming into the meeting so I like the stability of pricing even though we're trending into it and I think that's where you got to be careful because right now if you look at a daily basis we have a short-term self-stingles starting in the dollar index today because they've been they were coming off of a swing low they started correcting back to the upside but we've been going sideways for 2 weeks you know it's been a very tough trade if you really look at the charts they're very tight they haven't really been going anywhere everything's been wedging you know and there's a lot of expectations that now we're going to start seeing this dovishness and stuff like that I would be very very careful I think that the market is so far ahead of themselves and what they're predicting in the future it's it's it's nonsensical here's the main reason why why was the Fed doing what they were doing for the past year and a half anyhow to stop inflation correct numbers have maybe the inflation supposedly is slowing down and what have you but we're starting to see some upticks what happens if you cut rates okay if the theory is right that raising rates cuts and slows inflation we're going to start to accelerate inflation okay so now if you start to accelerate inflation by cutting rates what's that going to do well you're going to shake up the market for sure you know I mean you may see lower interest rates but here's the other thing too is people think that if we have lower interest rates the real estate markets going to get a jump start actually the opposite is going to happen because what's going to happen is now people may be able to get financed but people are going to raise their prices so you're going to see inflation in real estate also so I think Chairman Powell is in a very very sticky situation with the S&Ps on their highs you know rates reflectively without them cutting have come back significantly since the fall you know I mean the public may not like it and the media may not like it but that's the reality it's a mathematical reality you know so I think that we have to really watch the tone that comes out of the Fed I would be stunned if they do anything hawkers today let alone even speak of it in the next like couple of weeks either you know so that being said I think it's going to be a very tough sideways trade today we were talking about that last week and it really is that it's become a little wedge so I wait for a breakout because we really right now there's some you're probably have a lot of false signals that are going off right now and I would just you know I don't think you're going to get the follow-through until we have a confirmation after today because remember it's a free trade after today the Fed doesn't meet again it for another two months yeah it's some great points man I can't wait to see what he has to say quite the the tight rope that he has to walk pretty remarkable that you get yields under four percent in terms of you know where are we going to move to even if you know the market's pricing in a lot as you said the expectations are pretty sky high when you look at where we've come with yields were under four percent we were over five percent at one point so you talk about quite a recalibration on some of those expectations and boy when you look at where the Fed just where the market is pricing in some of those cuts man very aggressive in terms of three four cuts coming in potentially by like the middle of the year almost which is just going to be here before we know it watch the option markets because that's where you remember they put all these numbers out trades are put on based off of these expectations you know especially when they're coming from sources like the CME and stuff like that you know I hate to tell you like just because it's coming from the CME doesn't make it the gold standard you know so I mean believe me none of them are stepping out saying that this is what's going to be the future that's for sure you know so now I think you're going to see a lot of option activity you know and I would be careful you know with the S&P's on its highs like that I mean think about this if you know rates start to get cut you know yeah it's good for bond portfolios because they've already seen an uptick since the fall you know that all the money that comes in up until you know everyone's tax money is still coming in this month you know so where are they going to you know they're rolling it into bond funds you know they've been rolling it into the stock market so be cautious with this January effect rally you know also you know so that's another thing I think we will be interesting where we're at next week when we can really get a gauge on things and it like you say I mean just sitting at 5000 in the S&P when we've been on a hiking cycle for almost two full years which is remarkable almost to your point in terms of well where do we go from here as in accelerated the highs not usually the case when we're at 5.25 to 5.5% and we've been here for a while and they've been hiking for two years so what happens when they start to cut we find out can we jump to maybe crude Teddy as we got crude a little bit of an elevated level we've been talking about kind of you know that I've we inched to actually 79 on some geopolitical action this weekend and we're back to 77 you know what Teddy I have a quick break coming up can you finish it up with crude how's that all right stay tuned we got crude sitting right at 77 bucks as we speak and yeah up to 79 29 we're going to finish the conversation with our man teddy cakes that when we get back folks stay tuned we're coming back in three minutes don't go away we'll be right back as a precious metal gold is still king it continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market the US futures market and the Shanghai gold exchange the gold report Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX the dollar, bonds the South African rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy sell recommendations the gold report new subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk subscribe to Tom O'Brien's gold report newsletter now at TFNN.com you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com the opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman wave the Chapman wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman in your inbox every day first time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up TFNN.com educating investors the reality is that navigating financial markets can be risky markets can be chaotic and difficult to understand having the latest market advice can help you turn this chaos into a key for creating winning trades at TFNN we understand that it can be hard to find reliable market news that's why each of our market experts offers their very own market newsletter a must have tool for every trader out there striving to find an edge in today's markets TFNN newsletters cover every aspect of the markets so you can analyze the market before you trade try any of our great newsletters risk free with our 30 day money back guarantee just visit the newsletters tab on the front page of TFNN.com TFNN educating investors don't forget you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV that's TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV and get the news off by 32 jumping around real quick to those tech companies Microsoft is flat right now you got AMD shares they catch a bit on the open down by 2.4% right now you got Google shares in the red by 6.1% we're talking to our man Teddy Kegstad folks we're talking a little bit of forex we're gonna talk some commodities and I got crude up there Teddy with a 76.93 price point what do you think about this crude action well you know since we talked last week for the past month I've been in a huge bound in the 70 to 75 barrel was kind of my target for it to be at you know I mean obviously we have instability and you know what's going on in the Middle East but that really doesn't seem to phase oil too much but we did have a nice breakout to the upside a couple days ago so we finally got above $75 I now here's where you have technicals that conflict right now obviously we're coming off a higher move low we just set a higher move high a couple of days ago short term I think that we have probably come to a nice area I think we're gonna probably have a little bit of a pullback and my bearish absolutely not I think you got to look to buy the dips on it I would just be cautious at this level where it's at right now I think we have a good chance of probably slipping back to about to test worst you know 675 was resistance now it's gonna become like support which it seems like it is so maybe dip to like six down to maybe extreme of $74 and then if the trend is true for the new trend like you got to realize if the low that was set back in December if that is now a longer term trend low higher move low then we are setting a bull trend up for the longer term going into the springtime you know so and I think that right now I would look to be a buyer around 74 to 74 and a half if you're not long already I would be cautious if you're what might be a good trade right now if you're short going against a high from what was it on Monday so if you use that as your risk if you're bearish and you want to see if you can catch a little dip I would not be short above that high though if we take out the swing high from Monday then I can see it's going up to easily hitting 81 81 half and maybe have a little trouble there before we even head up to about 85 bucks a barrel then so it's a great take man I appreciate it as always Teddy we'll talk to you next week man Alright folks check out that Tiger 4x report always a great segment with our man Teddy stay tuned we got quite a market Basil Chapman's coming up next folks live programming all day my dad's back in the saddle from 3 till 4