 Hello, good evening everyone. Once again, my name is Ali Hmedi, a consultant working with Tickmill on their webinar series for futures, the way futures are used, and the variety of sectors that they're involved in. And tonight's topic is an interesting one to me, specifically where our getting out of let's say the mainstream of, you know, your gold, your metals, oil, and so forth. And we're going to be getting into the agricultural sexual sector specifically with wheat, and we will get started into the series now. Now, for those of you that have been following and joining along. As you all know, I like to keep things informal and in a conversational dialogue and format and try to relay and dissect information in that way. Once again, we'll be discussing the wheat futures and the particular outlook and forecast provided from several various institutions and financial firms. Now, once again, I find this topic, or this specific, this specific commodity very interesting, specifically because of the time where we are right now currently with the market, and the geopolitical tension with everything taking place in that aspect, as well as what's taking place with inflation and the rise and costs, dealing with all commodities in general but specifically this one because it does affect the population globally. Since it is something that we consume as an edible and as needed on a daily basis from a food perspective. This is taken from earlier today. Let me make this a little larger so that we can see this is the June of 2022 futures contract. Where we stand right now it was priced at the time of this particular slide at 846 spot zero. You can see the trend from May, we had a bit of a spike, and then since then it's been going downhill. This is a snapshot basically of where we stand as it was traded today. Now if we look out into this particular, these two slides in comparison. These are the July 2022 and December 2022 so the current month that we're in the contract and year ends contract and if you look at the graph and the chart themselves. You can see a lot of similarity with what they're projecting the July 22 contract is priced in at make it a little bigger. There you go at 831 spot two, and the December contract is priced in at this little bigger for you. Let me show you this conversation points before we get into what the forecast and different organizations have to say, but the December contract is priced in at a 62 spot 40. And one year from now, we're looking at this is the July 2023 contract so 12 months out it's priced in currently at 875 spot zero. We're looking at what's taking place in the market right now we're having another bloody day yesterday was a holiday in the United States, the fourth of July was celebrated. So the markets were closed in the US, but today's opening is very bloody. Everything seems to be down gold oil, and all the major indices are down as we're speaking right now. So it's continuing to provide this stress and pressure on on the downside across all sectors. Now what we're going to do is get into before we come back to these graphs and charts is we're going to get into different organizations and firms with their specific outlook for wheat specifically. This one is coming from bill from trading economics calm. The Chicago wheat futures fell to 8.3 dollars $8 and 30 cents per bushel remember getting back to in our previous webinars when we're introducing how futures are priced. So wheat is each contract is worth 5000 bushels, etc, etc, depending on if it's a large or a mini. You also have to take a look at the chart and it's tick value, but according to what Chicago wheat futures it fell to $8 and 30 cents per bushel mark extending from 5 to levels not seen since Russia's invasion of Ukraine as fresh us da this United States Department of Agriculture, planting data pointed to green acreage and stock levels that were above market expectations. It's added to projections of higher supplies as North American farms are ahead of schedule into harvesting season at the same time, a strong crop from Russia the world's top exporter point into a record amount of wheat available for shipment Ukrainian grain exports for the first 22 days of June, or 44% since shipments were halted back in February of this year. Now the biggest wheat exporters globally are China, India, Russia, United States, Canada, France, Ukraine, Australia and Argentina. Now Ukraine and Russia, they both account for nearly 30% of the global wheat exports combined before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Now wheat is expected to trade at 854 spot 71 by the end of this quarter and looking forward we estimated to trade at 942 spot 73 and 12 months time. So, we at this quarter now we're looking at July, August and September. Okay, they're looking at an 854 price target as their forecast and 12 months from now they're looking at 942 price target. Well, if we look at the target or the actual where the futures are trading for July 2023. We're currently trading at 875. So, if we were to take solely only this specific piece of data and research and say okay well, this could be a bargain. Let's buy now we expect it to go up, you know, a significant clip, and we can make a nice profit barring that this is accurate. We all know and as I've mentioned in previous webinars that we have to access and look across the broad spectrum of all what the market, the data, the research and the analysts have to say, and we have to come to our own conclusions. Capital comms website. As a result of the war in Ukraine, the sowing area was reduced this year. Sowing area was reduced this year and the harvest is expected to plunge in 2022. Now this is specifically related to Ukraine and its wheat market. There are some reasons with them being involved in conflict with Russia. They're not able to operate on all cylinders as they would like to be doing specifically when it comes to one of their major exports, which is wheat. But due to what's happening with Russia at the moment, they're not going to be able to produce as much wheat as they would like to, which will have an impact on the global wheat supply because they are one of the major exporters and producers of the commodity, but we have to keep it in context, as we'll see in further slides. So the Dutch bank, Rubble Bank, as a result of tight supply, their forecast and analysts and outlook for the commodity is not as bullish compared to their previous forecast. This obviously has a lot to do with what could happen with Russia, with them being a top exporter of wheat, how deep and how far will the sanctions run against Russia itself. Ukraine itself not being able to produce as much as it would like, what kind of impact will that have on the market as well. But there are other major, let's say, providers of wheat, as mentioned, globally from India to China, Australia, to the United States and Argentina. So we'll see if those exporters and producers will be able to fill the gap, so to speak, for the shortfall that Ukraine will end up having and what ramifications will end up having with the geopolitical sanctions and to what extent will they play out on Russia's wheat exportation for the coming months of this year and in 2023. Moving onwards, this is coming out of SAS wheat, which is the Development Commission out of Canada. Wheat futures plummeted on a combination of risk offselling, a rapidly progressing US harvest and improved conditions in Canada and questions about the demand outlook. World wheat futures fell to their lowest weekly close since the first week of the Ukrainian war. They note that new crop wheat fell more sharply than corn, you know, we're staying within the agricultural domain here, and it remains overpriced to corn. The big question currently is high inflation strikes, huge government debt, threats of stagflation, and I'll get to stagflation here in a minute, and energy gouging have caused consumption come back cutbacks to previous demand projections for the grain and oil seeds, which are overstated. Now stagflation, very simply is, it gets to a point where, if we just take the US economy, for instance, where they are currently raising their interest rates to combat inflation. But at point, you know, stagflation, it is a possibility at some point in time where the Federal Reserve will say, you know what, we are not willing to go back to the Volcker days and hike so aggressively to get it to where it's in the team percentages of interest rates to really fight head on inflation, and they might just throw in the towel and say, you know what, we started combating inflation a bit late, we're behind the eight ball here. We're still going to raise interest rates to a certain extent or to a maximum limit per se, and then inflation is going to do what it's going to do, and then it's just going to get stagnant, where inflation is at, you know, a specific range higher than where it's wanted to be, and interest rates will cease to increase to combat that due to economical pressures, political pressures, etc. And then you get that stagflation, that's what they're referring to, and stagflation. But if you look in the first paragraph here, you know, US harvest is on par, they're ahead of schedule, they have things moving on all cylinders. But the sell-off has been clumped in, so to speak, with the overall market sell-off. The market decline, the S&P down today, 57 points, it's down over 20% year date, and forecasted or projected to continue its downward pressure or sell-off throughout the remainder of this year. Now, Q1 2023 and Q2 2023 will be very, very important, will be a very important timeframe to take into consideration regarding what the Fed will do, the Federal Reserve out of the US. Are they going to continue to fight inflation head-on, or are they going to throw in the towel and start focusing on political reasons, because 2024 is an election year, and try to make the economy, help the economy back up again, which right now, in my opinion, as again, this is not investment advice, this is my opinion, is very dangerous. We are in a very volatile and on thin ice regarding the overall market outlook, regarding how much money has been printed from the Federal Reserve, how much debt is out there. Geopolitical tension is at an all-time, I shouldn't say at an all-time high, but it is at a very high level since the 70s, and the overall market sentiment from the ability from the US being the wealthiest nation on Earth, savings levels by households have decreased. Credit card debt is increasing, the US debt is increasing, Jerome Powell, the Fed Reserve chairman himself earlier this year was very concerned at the national debt being at plus or minus 25 trillion, and since then, we're above 30 trillion and counting. So, it's a very, very difficult and volatile market to be very wary. That doesn't mean that you shouldn't be involved, but if you are involved and or are going to be involved in the market, specifically with futures, they can be advantageous in these types of market conditions because with volatility it's an opportunity. This is coming out of Reuters. Relative to estimated global demand, wheat supplies for the upcoming cycle are seen dangerously close to all-time lows and notably below this year's reduced levels. When excluding China, world wheat stocks to use for 2022 and 2023 falls to the 14.9% level this year, and it would be the fourth lowest ever. The record of 14.3% was set back in 0708, and the average from the mid to the last decade was at 19%. What they're saying here now is that the supply or the upcoming supply is decreasing and they're excluding China, we'll get to that in later slides, is down, and for the last decade or so it's been at 19%. And now it's at roughly 15%. So it's down and this could keep white wheat prices elevated into 2023. So if you have less wheat, the demand is always going to be there because of what it is. The commodity is needed globally, whether you are an exporter or importer, all nations need it. It's impacting food prices for consumers globally and ensuring continued higher costs for the importer countries. Ukraine's situation also brings great uncertainty to the wheat market as the Russian military still occupies parts of the country. And then again, Ukraine being a top five wheat exporter. Now China is, which is often excluded from the global grain analysis due to its stockpiling habit is later to have a record 53% of the world's wheat storage by mid 2023. Now, China, they don't include them in most of their analytical data because they stockpile and they hoard and they can manipulate the data of how much wheat that they have stockpile. So there is always that gray area of how much do they have, how much have they produced, how much have they exported, etc, etc. But most of the analysis when it comes into factoring in forecast, they often exclude China out of the equation. But if you look at that staggering number of 53% of the world's wheat storage by mid 2023, you're talking over 50% of the global market need that they would be able to supply if needed. So depending on how things play out with Ukraine, Russia and the US economy, as well as the other major exporters being France, Argentina, and Australia, as well as Canada, so this is something to take into consideration. This is from the United States Department of Agriculture, otherwise known as the USDA, the US wheat production is forecast at 1.737 billion bushels, which is up 8 million bushels from the May forecast and 6% higher than the previous year. On Thursday, July 1, this is just this last Thursday, just a few days ago, the USDA pegged the world wheat ending stocks for the 2022 and 23 marketing year at 267 million tons, a six year low well below analyst estimates of 272 million tons. This is a note to take into consideration. Almost two months ago now, in its world agricultural supply and demand estimates report, they supported a bullish outlook for the 2022 and 2023 commodity with reduced supplies and higher prices. And that bit of information combined with what they just came out with last week with it being at a six year at a six year low below their forecast, well that's naturally going to cause the price to go higher, and the demand will always be there. So this is from wallet investor. Once again, they're an algorithmic based management. Other wheat production, for the most part, if you've noticed throughout when we started getting into market outlooks, specifically with gold, a few weeks back. Gold last week. Copper. They've always been bullish and they're always they're bullish here with we help their projection in 12 months time is at 970. So in the previous slide with with one of the forecast for 12 months time I think it was at 942. And if we look at, you know, the actual futures contract for July 2023 it's trading at 875. So, if you've done you if you do your research, and you are involved in this specific commodity or using it to either speculate or hedge and and you come to the bullish mindset. Well, the forecast one year out being 940 to 970. Well the futures contract here earlier today was trading at 875. So there is an opportunity there, if, if they are accurate, or even close to being accurate, getting back to wallet investors, the wallet investor, their five year forecast puts it all the way up at 1448 spot 35. So that's extremely bullish from where it's trading now I mean it's, it's almost double. And once again, depending on your own dynamics and how you're digesting and, and relaying this message that this research internally yourself. If you come to the conclusion that, you know, wheat is a good opportunity now because of the sell off and enhance sell off due to the markets being sold off, and it's being plumped in based on US data there in good shape. China stockpiling, Canada's report, somewhat positive from a from a harvesting perspective. But then you have the unknown coming from two of the top five exporters being Ukraine and Russia, which those will remain as an unknown variable. And it will be released today and for the foreseeable short term future until that conflict is resolved nobody knows how long that will continue to play out. But this is a very. So, market, getting into bear territory recessionary territory bear market territory, high inflation. And then they're known coming out of China. It's very difficult for analysts in general to come out with a longer term or mid range term 2025 is two and a half years to three years out. They'll be reluctant to provide any type of forecast or expectation that far out. Moving on, the key takeaways from the market overview in general as I said this is a very interesting topic to me. Due to everything that's taken place in the market, and as we've seen from various analysts, the wheat market seems to range from being well supplied in 2022 to dangerous lows heading into 2023. And then coupled with the market sell off and the supply chain disruptions there's a lot of selling pressure at the moment, which we've already discussed. Even though a rise in demand is present and needed mainly from importers, the supplies available, including China stockpile. The geopolitical choir mile will be difficult to sort out in the short to midterm future. So, there are a lot of moving parts that nobody really has an answer to, and if anyone comes out and says, No, this is 100% accurate this is what's going to happen. I'm very wary of these type of analysts because there are too many moving parts, and it's above a lot of people's pay grade and knowledge grade sensitivity to geopolitical information, etc, etc. And then what do we have to do we've got to do our research. This is a good opportunity in my opinion, with the current market sentiment where the market is, and what wheat actually is, and what it, what it, provides what you know because it's needed. It is a commodity that most, if not all of the world is an importer you have several major G seven to G 20 countries as exporters that that provide the globe itself with wheat. And it is a necessity when it comes to to consumption when it comes to food consumption. And so the demand will always be there. It's just a matter of finding the right time using chart analysis on historical data, looking at the current sell off if you go back and look at the charts that I pulled up on, where June's future contracts were traded, where July and December contracts were traded, and when you're out, you know, it's just a very, there's a decline in all of them, and it's you've got all these red candles going down. But how far down will they go. That's not known. We understand the dynamics of the necessity of the commodity itself. This is a perfect opportunity to hedge, take a position, and, and most likely, hopefully profit from in the future, but being wary of what happens if you know the geopolitical relationship between Russia and Ukraine results overnight. Well, Ukraine goes back to being a top five exporter Russia, depending on if they're under sanctions or not, goes back to being a top five exporter. In the market, we'll see enough or even more supply to handle the demand that's needed from importers, which could further put selling pressure on the commodity itself, it's already seeing selling pressure in the in the recent months. But if things stay heated in the market with the downside pressure, we could easily see the higher costs come into play, and the demand for wheat will always be there as mentioned, and it could drive these prices back up very quickly. That's why I like to end with a quote from famous investors, you get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don't understand that's going to happen. Then you're not ready, you won't do well in the markets. This is coming from Peter teal is a famous American investor mutual fund manager and philanthropists. I'm not sure exactly what we are right now, we are heading into a recession. We're in recessionary territory. As I mentioned in last weapon in the last webinar that recession data has a lag, and you've got to wait to quarters on GDP reports to actually see if we are in a recession or not. But if you just look at where the market is now. And you, there is a different feel this is not the COVID pandemic crash. That lasted for a couple of months, because everybody was in the pandemonium not knowing what's going on. This is different from the housing bubble because it was ice, it was isolated, even though it was a massive bubble with that. The, the, the housing crisis of eight in the United States. It was pretty much pegged into one sector, and you have a lot of fraudulent activity, the bubble expanded and when it popped, it almost created very closely to a full financial collapse without government intervention. It came into the, in the form of tarp the troubled asset relief program, where they doled out billions and billions of dollars to financial institutions so that they could stay liquidated and or stay liquid rather in order to, to stay viable. Now, what's happening now is not just one thing. It's not just one bubble. It's an all consuming type of bubble. You've got an overheated stock. You've got an overheated stock market. You've got interest rates increasing you've got inflation you've got geopolitical tension, and then you've got in 2024, a, a presidential election in the United States. So there are there are a lot of factors that are factoring in to us taking place for us just to say the market is having problems because of, for instance, the housing crash. We go back to that timeframe from 09 until now we've had nothing but a full market except for one year in 2018 and that year the market was only down 5%. So, you know, we do have to be very wary, and you have to understand that when you do have the market declines, and we're in recession territory that doesn't mean you should be out of the market. So what you need to do is if you're in the market, you need to be more astute be more aware of what you're doing within your portfolio and at the same time, understand where you can make specific position takes take specific position and make specific plays within your portfolio that could pay off very well. So I'm going to show you in your profitability column. With that being said, I'm going to open that up now to any questions if anybody has any questions. Please feel free to go ahead and send them to me via chat have any questions. Perfect with that market is down today. Nasdaq just turned a bit green. It's supposed to flat but a bit green. It's turning around a bit but for the most part, it's going to be a choppy week coming off of a holiday so it's a short trade week. Stay on top of the market. Do your research. And if you have any questions, as always, let me know until next week. Have a great week. Good luck in the markets, and we'll see you next week.