 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody? Welcome on into covering the spread that is the sports betting podcast here on the fan duel podcast network Where today we're talking tennis getting you said for the US open and how you bet tennis And I think I'm gonna learn a whole lot for today. My name is Jim Saunas I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com joined here as always by Ed Fang of the power rank You can find him on Twitter at the power rank Ed. We're talking tennis today with whalecapper and I Know literally nothing about tennis outside of I know who Serena Williams is and I appreciate everything about her What about you are you are you off? Are you do you have a head start over me when it comes to tennis knowledge here? No, okay. There's a guy named Jokovic. She's pretty good. There's a guy named doll who's good on clay Yeah, yeah, so I mean I mean there's one thing to know about tennis I'm pretty sure I remember the rules of the game But I think it'll be a whole not a ball game to think about tennis betting And that's what I'm excited to talk about talk to whalecapper about and the thing that I like about a lot of These sports that I don't know a whole lot about is that there's a lot of data in them that I don't know about and Like that's why I got into golf was because there's actually a lot of data behind it And it was a really fun sport to learn because as someone who Can grasp a sport a lot easier when there's data behind it. It made a lot of fun I'm sure the tennis is the exact same way I want to talk to whalecapper about all that you can find him on Twitter at whale underscore capper He is the host of the deep dive podcast He's an NFL NBA and tennis handicapper and the third time we've had him on third separate sports So we're gonna talk about the u.s. Open we're talking about betting tennis what types of markets He likes the most people he's monitoring for the u.s. Open on both the men's and the women's side So it should be a fun conversation We'll get whalecapper in here in just a little bit But first want to go through our schedule for the NFL and college football regular season because next week is Week one of the college football season now next week our schedule be the same We'll have a Monday and a Thursday podcast, but Each week during the regular season We're gonna have one episode dedicated to that week's college football action and one episode dedicated to the NFL The college one will be on Wednesday. We'll core that Wednesday afternoon The NFL one will be on Friday So we will not have a college football preview for week zero because we're gonna talk with Rob Pozzola about the NFL On Thursday this week, but we may get some discussion around it on Thursday Potentially in the covering in the future segments. So next week begins the full I guess not the full regular scouts will solve the one on Monday But once we get in there Wednesdays and Fridays and when we're recording But Ed the fact that we're talking about this means we're close to college football season And I'm pretty excited for that. There are no more Saturdays without college football for a very long time Well, yeah, and it kicks off in such a spectacular fashion with Florida Miami This Saturday night, I will be in front of a TV that entire game Arizona Hawaii a little bit later Which is not the worst nightcap in the world. No Maybe not as good as an old-fashioned, but you know It's gonna be some good college football Absolutely, we'll probably get some talking that on Thursday show So make sure you tune in for that But also for the regular season shows just make sure you subscribe to the covering this spread Whether it be on Spotify Apple podcast the Google Play Store stitch or wherever you find your podcast You can find covering the spread and while you're there Please leave a rating and a review for the show. It helps out a ton Thank you to those of you who have left reviews already and again subscribe so that you can make sure you get each podcast Right as I just posted you don't have to worry about our schedule But it will be Wednesday and Friday Once we get to week one of the NFL season that's gonna switch into the Wednesday Friday Schedule now before we bring on whale capper I got to talk about covering the past because I talked about Ryan Blaney and Nascar last week I think it's a pretty interesting one. So let's dive into that and we'll get into whale capper after that Covering the past All right, so last week on covering the future I talked about picking Ryan Blaney to win at Bristol and he opened at 16 to 1 at Fandall Sportsbook And he was in this tier of six drivers who my model said were you know the top six for that race And they're all pretty tightly grouped and Blaney actually did separate during the practice sessions on Friday He had the second best five lap average during the opening practice on Friday He was then first in 10 lap averages during the second practice And when you combine those two things with his raw speed and practice He actually wound up being the highest ranked driver in my model in the entire field Before qualifying on Friday night. So I think I thought getting him at 16 to 1 was the right call And then Ryan Blaney blew out the power steering pump, which seems suboptimal at the end of that Friday practice He actually hurt his shoulder because the wheel jerk to the right so much didn't hit the wall So he wound up being fine But partly because of that it seems like you end up qualifying 12th and as a result of that Poor qualifying effort he closed in 19 to 1 and I actually thought that was still a good number despite the fact He didn't qualify very well Denny Hamlin who was one of those top six guys in my model wound up winning the pole and he won the race Which means that Ryan Blaney did not win. He did work his way up to seconds during the race He was looking pretty good, but then there was a caution before the end of the second stage And Blaney pitted in order to position himself well for the final stage And I actually thought that was a good thought process I actually applauded that move but it also put him back in traffic and Bristol's a pretty volatile place and Eventually he hit the wall because he got caught up in some traffic and he still wound up finishing 10th So it was a good race for him and again He was up to second thought he was gonna push Truex to the lead there But disappointed because I think the process here is pretty good given how good he was in practice and the fact that he Actually did well in the race before that incident. So overall, I feel like the process was right here So I don't really feel the need to revisit things too much. I still like Blaney I was not high enough. I'm Matt DiVenedetto He almost won that thing and that was a lot of fun. I liked him in DFS just couldn't quite get there from a betting perspective. So Pretty fun event at Bristol and we're gonna finally get you into covering the past year Not too long from now because with college football season, we're gonna do a covering the past Recapping each week so we can actually get some thoughts there But I'm you know, we're working our way around here on my side. I did have a question for you though I mean I'm telling me last time about how Bristol is kind of this small track and a little bit of a blender Does that you would probably like those practice times mean less just because there's more nuance and skill In actually winning the race because it's such a tight course so to me they practice times themselves are a better indicator of who will be fast because Like let's say at Kansas you can get a little bit of a draft at Kansas And that's going to make your speeds and practice more volatile It may not indicate that you're actually a good car It could just could indicate that you got a draft at a good time and post is a good lap at Bristol The draft doesn't matter. So you actually I think they are going to be more indicative of who will be fast during the race But like you said, it is pretty volatile. So I think that that's why I wasn't super into betting any of the guys Who had the shorter odds in the top six, but because Blaney was longer at 16 to 1 I thought he was advantageous even when you account for the volatility in that race So it's a it's a two-way thing I think that if you look at practice times in my model They will have a higher correlation to average finishing or average average running position at a short track Then they will add a bigger track But their correlation to the finishing position may not be a whole lot better just because there is more there more wrecks There's more volatility you'll have guys like Blaney get into traffic and run in the wall And so that's that's something to be factored in there, too So I think that in general I would rather bet longer shots at a short track But I still feel good about guys as long as their number is not too short And that's why I thought that Blaney was a good one there. I did like Hamlin at he was 8 to 1 Given that he was starting the pole because he has to deal with less traffic So it depends on where you're starting to and Blaney was starting 12 So he was more in the in the blender whereas Hamlin was less less in the blender So I think it depends on a couple of things But it's a pretty accurate observation because there is more volatility on tracks like that similar to super speedways as well Okay, so track type does matter quite a bit and it's something to account for Bristol one of my favorites didn't go so hot from a DFS perspective this past week So hopefully with the off week before Dalton we can get back in the swing of things then and if you want to get It on the action for Dalton or anything else check out the Fandals sportsbook and place your first bet today If you lose Fandal will give you a refund of up to $500 in site credit visit sportsbook.fandal.com for more details terms and conditions apply Must be 21 plus and physically present in New Jersey or Pennsylvania gambling problem call 1 800 gambler We'll take a quick break here We're going to come back in with whalecapper to talk about the US Open once again follow him on Twitter at whale underscore capper He is a handicapper of the NFL the NBA and tennis and the host of the deep dive podcast Which you can find wherever you get your podcast. Let's learn some tennis right here on covering the spread Covering the present Let's welcome whalecapper back into covering the spread for the third time already and well This is actually the third difference sport busy time of year for you We have the US Open coming up But also NFL season just around the corner and the NBA landscape always very interesting So busy time for a year of you. I want to appreciate you and thank you for stopping by. How you doing? Oh, I couldn't be better. This is a great time of year and this is a you know, this is a Perfect kind of ending to if you fear into you know tennis handicapping you can obviously do it pretty much year-round But here as we we wind down on the North American hard-court swing Entering into this two-week stretch that is the US Open That's like the perfect perfect way for me to end my tennis handicapping season So for you as a tennis fan, where does the US Open rank relative to other events throughout the year? It's Personally, it's at the very top because I get to see so much more of it Australian Open, you know, it happens in in January and At least two-thirds of it is overnight for those of us here in California It's so you know, it's it completely wrecks your sleep schedule And it's tough to really you know It's tough to really watch a lot of the opening rounds and and get a feel for the event and then the French open while You know, I you I have a soft spot for clay tennis because it's so fun to watch in general You know in my life as a you know, heavy-duty sports better It's been you know completely dominated by Rafa Nadal on the men's side So it hasn't been a ton of fun to watch there hasn't been at that much drama Wimbledon is probably second for me after the US Open but you know the the the US Open really affords a lot of Opportunity for lots of different types of players and you know, there's usually quite a bit of drama We have a good feel for how everyone's form is at this time of the season because we've seen them play on all three Services and you know, we know who's kind of you know in peak form and who's you know Who's competing for you know championships here So it's it's it's quite a great event to enjoy and be able to watch and perfect way to end the summer So we're trying to get a broad overview here for you because Ed and I have admitted we know nothing about tennis So we're gonna try to get just pick your brain here and try to get you know, the basics of tennis betting US Open specifically gets underway on August 26th, and we don't know the draw yet So before we know the draw well, are there any markets you're dabbling in before we get that pretty critical information? Yeah, and you know the draw is if you as far as long shots go You absolutely have to wait until you see the draw because you know, there are There will be certain portions of the draw that are susceptible to someone coming out of nowhere and making a run But if you kind of sell yourself one, you know 101 300 to one long shot now And then the draw comes out and they're playing Joe Kovic in round one and you know, you're you're already you're already out of luck there So, you know So I tend to focus on on the top of the market before we see the draw because we know Joe Kovic Is gonna be the first overall seed he has by far the most points and you know is the rightful favorite in this in this men's side and you know, I think You would expect to see the twos and three seed Although it's not always doesn't always work out this way But you expect to see the two and three seed on the bottom half of the draw Which would be Nadal and Federer this year and you know, this is it does kind of help You know kind of you put your mind into okay Well, you know, so if Nadal is gonna win he's gonna have to beat Federer and Joe Kovic, right? Whereas Joe Kovic can kind of you know cruise his way into the final and just take whoever, you know Whoever survives that potential, you know, you know heavy highly anticipated by the way We've never seen Federer and Nadal play on You know in Flushing meadows before so that it would be a first-ever if they were to happen to meet in the semi-finals But presumably that would be a very high, you know Hotly contested match and then the winner would be, you know beaten and battered headed into, you know A showdown with Joe Kovic. So also, you know the way that the the draw will likely shake out I think you have to see that there's you know, presumably quite a lot of value on that Joe Kovic even at You know the proverbial, you know short price of you know about even odds here at Fandle looking at plus 105 You know, which would imply a break-even percentage just just under 50 50 But with my numbers right now, I currently make Joe Kovic 60 a little under 60 ish percent chance to take the title So and you know and that is almost strictly borne out of the fact that the only other two players who I think have a Reasonable shot to defeat him in the doll in Federer will have to play each other in the semifinals likely before they face Joe Kovic in the final So well when you're doing this so so the NCAA tournament there's always these match-up issues where you can get a You know an upset coming out of a particular region just because that region tends to be kind of weak Are you thinking about the same things in terms of the US Open and the draw in terms of when you talked about Waiting on those long shot favorites. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, there are there will be certain sections where a player who is relatively highly ranked His game may not necessarily his or her game may not necessarily be suited for the conditions at Flushing Meadows And and or they may just not be in great form now You know they the the players are crew points for ranking over the course of a full season And you know somebody who may be played amazing tennis at Australia and all through the European Clay court swing and then Dave, you know, they've kind of completely fallen off but still have a relatively high ranking You know, that might be a little section of the draw where you can kind of target. Okay. Well, I don't have you know I think that this this player You know presents a you know likely candidate to take an upset, you know, like similar to March Madness Maybe it's a team that you know that did really well in November December and January and then struggle down the stretch And they look primed to be upset, you know that those exact same situations exist in the tennis draw and if you can find the sections of the draw where the you know the presumed Favorite bank based on ranking alone Looks vulnerable then you can track down some potential long shots who have some value So until we get the draw the loan market that we have as of right now is Whoever's going to win it both the men's and women's side You can find those odds over at Fandall Sportsbook Well, let's take a bit of a broader view here and try to look forward in the future, you know Just in general, which markets have you found the most value in do you like championship odds? Do you like specific matches? Do you like in match betting? Well, which market have you found to be most fruitful for your personal style? Yeah, so for these for the for the grand slams, it's absolutely been the outrits There is a relatively narrow There's a relatively narrow band of players who have a any any realistic chance of winning here And so you can get pretty aggressive as far as handicapping these outright markets So when it comes to you know Wimbledon, you know French open US open Australian open like without a doubt My by far my highest ROI has come from hitting Hitting the outright winners after that. It's it's usually you know, it's it's usually a combination of the totals market as well as Finding some unique Soft spots when you get into some of the derivatives So just like you know, just like in the NFL or the NBA for instance You have derivatives where you know You have a first quarter line and a first quarter total or you have a team total You know various things like that exist for tennis as well And a lot of times, you know, you can really kind of corner and you know specific angles that okay Well, even if this player who is the underdog, you know, we're not to come away with the upset You know the likelihood that they're gonna force a fourth set the likelihood that they're going to just you know Extend this match in a way that you know provides value on a on a games total or a sets total or a correct score potentially You know those those derivatives markets are you know in the pre-match Space I've been very very kind to me over the over the years And you know if you have if you're if you're watching live and if you have, you know Some semblance of a of a live handicapping tennis model You know, there are people who exist in this betting space that that's like that's like their date That's like that's their day job, right? Like if they tend to terminology they call them traders And you know, they're just taking positions high and low on on certain players in in match betting and trading in and out And you know, you know cornering profit in that that way And there there is quite a few of those especially in the European markets and and they're they're very very very skilled at that Yeah, super interesting because it sounds like there's no us open madness like we see in March madness In winning the tournament right like I mean 60% for Joe Kovic is is a lot. I mean that seems like a ton to me and Yeah, so well, I want to talk to you a little bit more about your methodology Since you're giving me 60% for Joe Kovic to win I presume that means you can get the win probability for any two players once they step on the court So tell us a little bit about the metrics that go into that and your methodology and in determining that and Surfaces and so on. Yeah, well your your note your note there about Joe Kovic being that high is is very very You know, it's it's on the nose Men's tennis is in a weird place right now where it's just completely dominated by the big three Federer Nadal and Joe Kovic have won You know every slam going back to I think two years ago Stan Favrenka won the Won the US Open and an incredible upset over Joe Kovic in the final but you know since that point in time it has been just completely dominated by the you know by the big three and You know really it just it's it's that simple because you know as long as these players are playing tennis at the level where no one in the field Can you know can can approach them? You know best of I'll go back a step in Sort of a standard match setting in tennis just let's say the Cincinnati Open for instance just wrapped up The men are only playing best of three. So you have to win two out of the three sets Sometimes you know a lot of times it's straight sets victory to nothing for a given player and You know that actually does open itself up to a little bit more Little bit more randomness a little bit more variance You know you can have some Situations where the top player the other better player doesn't always win But when you get to best of five, which is the setting for these grand slams That tends to reduce the variance quite a lot Especially later in the you know when you're a later in the rounds and you really are kind of looking at players who are You know one is clearly stronger player than the other they tend to win at a relatively high clip So you need it's it's in impart It's the way that the tournament is set up that really lends itself to you know some of these favorites being you know relatively high likelihood of actually winning and You know as far but as far as you know, you want to actually handicap the match between two players You know this will speak to you Ed for sure. It is very very very amenable to a analytical statistical Approach and what I mean by that is you know, you have a football, you know College football match you may be handicapping for this weekend You have you know, how many players do you have to incorporate? You know at least the 22 starters on each team and then on beyond that You know bench players beyond that coaching tendencies beyond that all kinds of you know various factors that May influence the outcome well in tennis we have one guy versus one guy or one gal versus one gal and we've got a You know just an enormous amount of data on the strength and skill Set that each player brings to that match with them based on their past results And you know if you you can come up with some pretty You know it lends itself really really well to yellow style modeling So like like you know like you would use for you know chess players or you know or you know It's right in that vein that you can use past results in an informed way to predict future Outcomes and just kind of update the yellow scores as you get new results in and you know I presume you have much more fancy stuff than just some elo rankings Well, that's kind of at the backbone and then after that you just have to incorporate the reasonable differentiating factors So the first and most obvious one that comes up when it comes to tennis is what is the surface that this match is going to be played on? We have the three general, you know, there's three general categories Grass clay and then what's going on now in North America, which is hard court And hard court tennis is kind of in the middle of clay and grass as far as surface speed and you know the way that the court itself is is You know is constructed They can make a hard court that is wrong the slower end of the spectrum That's closer to the speeds that you would find in clay and that's actually what we're expecting here at flushing meadows So it's it's on the slower end of the spectrum as far as hard courts go And what that just does is it tends to give guys who are traditionally clay specialists a little bit more of a fighting a chance Against the guys who dominate with their serve and so, you know, you've seen some pretty impressive results from Nadal here at at role at at flushing meadows over the last handful of years and You know, I think just in general guys who are particularly good on the clay Clay swing you have to look out for them to make a run here at at flushing meadow meadows Just on the basis of they're gonna get more points back on return They're gonna get they are there they're gonna get rewarded for being able to move for being able to run down track down points You know those those opportunities don't open themselves up when you're on a faster court Like a grass surface or a faster hard court surface You know that that the court court speed and past performance on this particular type of court and it's and really at this Specific venue is hugely influential in terms of refining in the yellow style model We're talking here with whale capper. He is the host of the deep dive podcast I think that's interesting stuff for as far as pre-match betting goes when you're watching a match And you want to dive into the the in-match betting Is there something that you look out for to try to identify people who may be undervalued in that market at that At that time, you know, obviously you could have a model for that as well But when you're watching a match, there's something that you have an eye on whether it be a stat Or just something that your eye can catch on to that will key you that I want to bet this person right now Yes, absolutely The two there are kind of two ways that I approach a live betting market for tennis. The first is Are you generating break opportunities, you know, are you generating are you putting pressure on your opponent's serve? But are you just kind of get you know, you're you're getting unlucky in the kind of capitalizing moments, right? So you're you're generating break points, but you aren't converting those into actual games one against your opponent's serve and that's especially important because You know to win any set of tennis you need to win six games and if you can't break your opponent's serve But you hold your own and it's six six at the end of the set then they do what's called a tie break and The tie break is as coin. It's as coin-flippy as it sounds, you know, you just go back point versus point You know, you're you're changing the year your alternating serve every two points And the first two seven points winning by two wins the tie break and that it's a really fragile situation there And so you can be the better player in a set you could have generated Substantially more opportunities against your opponent's serve But just not quite converted them and then find yourself in the tie break and lose the tie break And now here you are down one set to nothing and a lot of you know A lot of people would look at the scoreboard there and think oh wow well this guy won the first set He's got it. You know, he's got a huge edge here, you know to win the match But a lot of times, you know if you break down the you know the box score a little bit more carefully And you find opportunities where you know player a who lost the set actually generated a lot more pressure on their opponent's serve You know that can give you an indication, you know beyond just seeing it with your eyes That can give you an indication that that they still may be the better player on that day And they may come back and get the win and you could scoop some value in that that sense So looking for you know, you were you're you know a specific player who is down who is you who has has value? And just it just hasn't gotten the lucky breaks to that point in the match You know I'm trying to back them at that point is a great angle and then the alternative to that is Some players who you kind of would once you kind of identify their characteristic sort of I'll call it a shape Right once you kind of identify the shape of how they perform over the course of the match from point one to point Five hundred, you know you some guys Ten to start slow and build into the match and get just unbelievably good by the end The best example by far on that kind of shape is is player like roughing it all a lot of times early in the match You'll look a little bit vulnerable He may drop a serve in the first set he may not even win the first set But then as this as the match where John you can get to a point in the third and fourth set where he will Just go scorched earth on his opponent and break them with ease And sometimes that's mental. Sometimes it's you know his specific style and approach But a lot of but in those cases, you know, if you see him kind of guard grab hold He'll loses a first set grab grabs hold of the match in the second set ties it up one one You head into the third set a lot of times You'll see a price in the in the games handicap live where he'll be expected to win the third set by You know minus two or minus two and a half games, right? So they're expecting him to win six four six three well a lot of times in those actual settings He is he's rolling now. He's got the momentum. He's going to he's playing downhill He's got a read on the opponent serve the serve opponent serve speed may be down a hair And then he goes and beat some six one six one So you can look for opportunities like that to back a games handicap When you have a player who you know to be kind of building into a match As you know as you get later and later and Nadal is probably my favorite guy to back that angle on so that's interesting so you you you can actually go back to the point by point data and See that you know Nadal wins. I don't know 70% in the early rounds and maybe 85 in the layer parts of the match Yeah, it's and it's you specifically want to focus on Points one versus when when he's returning right you you can see it as clear You can see it as clear as a bell on pretty much every surface except for grass Where the later in the match do we the later you are in the match? You know the deeper you are into the match the more likely hood. He is going to win any given point But did you say particularly when he's trying it when he's? Returning right yeah when he's on return. Yeah, right It's this is entirely just that because because what sets the Nadal apart As a tennis player what makes him unique and what you know what gives him So much dominance on clay specifically is he's the best He is he's the most aggressive on return And can when he when he when he's got your serve figured out when he knows what you're trying to do with first and second serve Opportunities you're in deep trouble against him And so yeah that later in later in matches. He tends to absolutely dominate And then you just can't he just can't be as aggressive on grass Is that I'm supposed to understand that well grass is funny because the bounce You know that this the service the service speed itself Doesn't the surface doesn't take much speed off of the ball So the ball comes in at a lower angle. It doesn't come up as high He can do more with a return that bounces high higher off the surface And so just the just the trajectory of the of the ball and just and in general like he has Limitations physically as far as you know his knees do not You know do not do as well when he's been playing substantial amounts of hardcore tennis or grass tennis and he tends to break down physically a little bit more readily and You know so so you know some of its movement some of its Trajectory and this the speed of the ball and you know where you know his his his returning style. He puts an amount of topspin on his on his return that is about 150% more spin rate than anyone else that I've ever seen hit a tennis ball like it's it's it's absolutely ridiculous what he can do is With his spin and you know if he's getting a if you if he's getting a ball That's coming up relatively high off the surface and he can put whatever spin he wants on it Then you're dead in the water That's very interesting. We were talking about the men's side here and obviously you mentioned the big three There what about the women's side because it looks like things are a bit more wide open there Serena Williams the favorite at plus 490 at fan dual sports book But coming off an injury a little bit of ambiguity there the set numbers Obviously that's going to change the amount of certainty you can have going into it as well When you look at the women's side of things Do you view Serena as being the favorites despite you know the the injury that she's had or are you looking to bet someone a Little bit longer odds here or do you stay out of it given the increased variance here with the reduced number of sets? Yeah, so I think both is the answer really my I do see Serena as the clear and obvious favorite here I do think there is a little bit of value if you can get her in the five to one range And there's a couple reasons for that. You know we you mentioned the injury, you know the injury bug that's kind of been pestering her since she's made her come back from the maternity and Yeah, it's there's there's a physical component for sure You know, she's definitely has not kind of gotten back to the you know That's sort of the physical specimen that we remember from her being the you know the greatest women's tennis player of all time But at the same time, there's clearly a mental component to it as well. She's had some pretty You know some pretty clear breakdown performances where she was by far and away the better player in a match Australian Open comes to mind pretty readily here. She lost a late round a Late round match to Christina push or actually carolina pliscava who she was Substantially better on that day and was up I think five one in the third set there with the chance to put it away And you know just kind of tweaked her ankle and then got in her own head and it all fell apart for her So, you know, there's definitely she's got a lot of pressure on herself to To win a slam in her comeback here from maternity leave and you know, I think last year She lost in the final in a pretty Spectacular blow-up as well to Naomi Osaka and just in general like kind of at the end of these At the end of these tournaments where she's in position to win She's she's faltered a little bit and it's it's not easy to kind of put your finger on what's going on there I would look to her performance in the Canadian out the Rogers Cup Which was just in Toronto a couple weeks ago. She performed extremely well through the first three rounds of that tournament She got to the final. She was having back spasms. She's she pulled out in the final And a lot of people have kind of noted from there. Oh, well, maybe she's dealing with some lingering injuries Maybe there's some fitness issues. I'll note though that in that tournament They were playing best of three tennis and she was playing every day So she had to play back to back to back to back days And that kind of cumulative fatigue seemed to be what was bothering her so seriously in the final You look at what's going on with the US Open schedule and she's afforded a much more relaxed Schedule here the women will play every other day best of three tennis And so she'll kind of have an opportunity to kind of build into her She'll have she'll be afforded a relatively soft draw with her her current points in her current ranking And she should be able to build into her her strength as the as week one goes on and then you know week Two rolls around if she's she's kind of peeking at that time It's going to be extremely difficult for any other women in this field to keep up with her, but There's still some long shots. I think we're worth looking at and who are those long shots other than the wind side or the men's side Well, I know it's tougher I know we just talked about how you don't want to dabble in until the draw Well, I think on the women's side It's more it's more straightforward because the women's side I think is less is less Drawed dependent in terms of who has a reasonable shot to win on the men's side like I was like Actually, we can kind of put a period I think on the men's kind of handicap of the whole tournament. I think you are Extremely likely to see Federer Nadal semifinal of those two I would give Nadal a greater chance to make it to that semifinal Federer I'm a little Little concerned that he may show some cracks early and get upset But you're probably looking at a you know a five-set bloodbath between those two in the semifinal And I like Nadal to come through that And that would set up a Djokovic Nadal final where I think Djokovic wins relatively convincingly. So I would look for Opportunities in the futures market to get an exact you know an exact result here of Djokovic Over Nadal as as an exact, you know exact result if you're trying to get a little bit better You know a little bit more kind of a lotto ticket price here. You could probably you're probably going to be able to find that for like 10 or 12 to 1 or so And and or just a Djokovic Nadal as the ex you know the exact final That's probably going to be more like a three or four to one And I think both of those are worth worth looking at as you go to the men's side On the women's side We did touch on yes Serena is the is the clear and obvious favorite in my mind Five to one is a very fair price to back her at this point And then if you want to go a little bit deeper down the draw, I think there are two American women that are worth strong consideration here The young American Sophia Kennan is right now at about 30 to 1 She has an incredible game. She is poised to break out in this tournament She has the game that suits her well for this tournament And you know in general and again, you know kind of refining the yellow cell concept We were we were talking about before Ed if you can incorporate You know, you see a pretty clear signal where players perform better at on you know on their home turf Yeah, and so Ken and being an American Ken and having you know the home crowd behind her if she if she puts together a little momentum Here is going to be very very dangerous. So at 30 to 1 she makes a lot of sense to me Similarly Madis Masson Keith. She's a former finalist here She just put on maybe the best single week of tennis of her life winning the Cincinnati Premier event last you know just yesterday. I guess actually just wrapped up She was incredibly impressive her game is you know suits suited very well for for performing at flushing meadows And you know, she made the finals here two years ago where she was defeated by Sloan Stevens And I think she has a very realistic shot at making another run deep into this tournament with the you know What you're a guard, you know irrespective of her draw The only fear would be if keys gets matched up and say the same quarter of the draw is Serene Williams And I'm a little less a little less confident there, but I think still at 18 to 1 for keys That's that's still a pretty that's still a pretty fair price for her Yeah, it won via Ken and 29 to 1 as well. So right in the same range. Are you at? Yeah? Yeah, one last question. Well So you talked about home court advantage, and I'm sure that's something that you include in your model And when you look at your model, you know, we've talked before about making adjustments in the NFL because It's hard because the model doesn't capture everything Is it way less so in tennis or somewhat less so just because you have so much more data between Individuals like do you find yourself making subjective adjustments or do you maybe 90% trust the numbers? I Would say it's 90% trust the numbers and then there are but but for but I Also would say that I do I try to do a pretty complete job of quantifying What would be considered subjective adjustments, right? Like you can you can quantify form, you know You can in tennis. It's doable, right? You know if a guy who's you know got an ELO score that's in the yellow in the upper You know 95th percentile if he's losing to guys in the 30th to 50th range and he does it, you know consecutive weeks You know, it's pretty straightforward to incorporate that into a into a metric that captures poor form and downweights him in any given match and vice versa and then But but and that's a big one form is a big one and then the other one that that's also again pretty easy to quantify is is head-to-head and And head-to-head head-to-head is fascinating and it's important for a tennis handicapping perspective because it kind of informs you on a Player has a good read on what it takes to beat their opponent, right? And it kind of comes down to okay Do do they have a plan of attack that can be successful in this head-to-head? Opportunity and if you look at two players and there's a five to two You know record head-to-head and all of those results are relatively recent I do a pretty significant amount of time decay when I'm doing this to like I'm sure I'm looking very very closely at the last year's worth of data a little less so at the last two years and then a third category for all time basically And and I would say if you're going head-to-head if you have good head-to-head data That is in the last two years in particular and that informs some signal on okay This player has figured out this other players game And they are going to win at a much higher rate than you would just expect given that they have roll You know somewhat equal strengths a lot of times that that is a great way to then go and find You know value in some of the handicap markets or correct score markets or set sets and sets markets and and vice versa If it's two players of equal strength and they have a head-to-head record That's you know four and four or eight and eight all time, you know that that could then inform you on okay Maybe this is a match that you want to look for an over right like this is one That's gonna go long ways because these guys are so familiar with each other's games, and it's gonna be you know It's this is not gonna be you know three and done here. This is gonna go long until the night Hmm interesting. All right, that is whalecapper. I feel I feel so much more comfortable now like talking to I gotta find some place to draw some knowledge whether it be you know just a party somewhere I gotta you know gotta feel like I gotta talk like I know what I'm talking about and that is all due to you Well, thank you so much for dropping by good luck with the US open Hopefully the draw goes in your favor for any futures bets you may have down right now, and we'll talk to you again soon Hey, thanks again for having me guys and always always a pleasure to chat with you Covering the future One final thank you is out to whalecapper for coming on here and talking a little bit of tennis and ed I feel feel a lot smarter now after hearing all things that that whale had to say about the US open Yeah, absolutely. I could have probably bugged him for two hours about his model So it's good that you got jumped in there Jim and prevented me from doing that You know I would have a little tight for the listeners I would have loved to sit back and listen to that entire thing personally But I also have to I guess work allegedly which is kind of a bummer I'd rather just sit back and listen to you two guys talk But we'll have more tennis talk as we get back in the majors later on because whale is a Fantastic guest you can find him on Twitter at whale underscore capper and to find his podcast the deep dive podcast Wherever you get your podcast Let's finish up here with covering the future and we're getting close and closer to the NFL season So we're both gonna talk about NFL teams here uncovering the future starting off with you Ed Talking about the Packers and they are a team we talked to whale about the NFL He liked betting the Packers early because of their early season schedule Like if they were to beat the Bears in week one things would move for them pretty quickly What are you looking at here with this Packers team? Yeah, so this Packers team is particularly interesting over the past couple years because they've had a really good rush offense They've been top five when I look at it. Just a yards per carry, and then they've been kind of terrible throwing the ball and you know kind of Below NFL average, which is not really what you expect You know with the team with with with Aaron Rodgers and there were reasons for that that we'll get into but you know That's that's kind of the exact opposite thing you want to do in the NFL You want to be able to throw the ball well, and you know if you can run it Good for you so they've kind of had it backwards on offense the last two years and and But I think you know there's reasons for that I mean Aaron Rodgers didn't even play the whole season two years ago, and then he played on Gimpy leg Essentially the entire season. I mean they opened with Chicago again last year For the year when that happened exactly and he played it out, and you know, I certainly don't think you can you know almost Probably not a good idea given how much they're paying him and how much they expect him to go You know play in the future So I think it's an interesting thing You know there's been so much talk Matt Furs the new coach and how's he gonna get along with Aaron Rodgers And what's the drama and of course this gives people to things to write about and us to click on so they can Get their ad revenue and and that's all good and great but I think the real story is Aaron Rodgers is gonna be healthy this year from what we know and You know if you can give him any kind of reasonable offense With that good offensive line and and with the tools that he have I mean Aaron Rodgers is one of the biggest talents We've seen at the quarterback position and it hasn't worked out the last two years But I think that alone you have to be excited about them getting back to where they should be throwing the ball And then you got to look at the defensive side of things and this is a team that I was kind of high on last year Because they had a lot of young talent in the secondary and it didn't really work out their their defense was terrible last year They're their past defense in terms of my justice success rate was in the 20s But you also have to consider the situation in terms of injuries football outsiders tracks this and they were 30th in terms of their injury rate on that side of the ball and Injuries is one of those things that's going to regress to the mean every year. There's a lot of randomness and injuries So they should be healthier they signed a couple of past pressures to help them out in that department the dares Smith and Preston Smith the Smith guys and I'm still hot in that young secondary Kevin King is is gonna lock down one of the cornerback positions Jerry Alexander was pretty decent as a rookie last year. They also Signed Josh Jackson and might move him to safety this year. So a lot of high picks there in the secondary high in them potentially getting that together and I think we're making a really good season. I'm really optimistic for this team. They're at nine and a half wins Like I've mentioned before I really hate betting the over on a on win total that high because any kind of injury or or A lot of things there's more things I can drag a team down Towards the average of eight wins then, you know the lock in the good things I can happen to push them over a nine and a half wins, but I'm expecting really strong season from Green Bay this year Well, you were talking about the free agent investments But they also invested as you alluded to in the draft because they had two first-round picks because they had that Saints pick from last year as well they did trade up but two defensive players in the first round and Draft picks do matter like they can move the needle in a pretty quick fashion They do increase if you have a high volume with them They do increase the teams expect expected win total the Packers invest in that defense you get a healthier and Rogers you have Those they have I would say they have the two best the best tackle pairing in the league as well on that offensive line And they also bolster their offensive line too by taking a really impressive player in the second round Elton Jenkins So I think that they have depth on the offensive line, which makes me feel better about betting them With that total with that wind total being high because they can afford a couple of injuries They can't afford an injured Aaron Rodgers, but they can afford some injuries elsewhere. I think their depth is really good So I like the Packers broadly and you were talking about the wind total Do you have any interest in them at 19 to 1 to win the Super Bowl? Yeah, I think I do right? I mean this is clearly a team with a high upside when you have an Aaron Rodgers You get some health and you know, I feel like we've talked about a whole bunch of teams Jim about they got a quarterback They got a receiver, right, but they got nothing on defense. I don't feel like that's the case with Green Bay I feel like they have the makings for decent defense and with just a little bit of injury a little bit of health and Some guys maybe stepping up in their sophomore year It could be a really good situation in Green Bay and it's not as if the Powerhouses in the NFC are bulletproof. There are you know the Rams had their changes in the offensive line The Saints Drew Brees is aged. We could say that I like the Eagles a lot So I don't want to put the question mark label on them as well and they're also longer But I think that the Packers are well-positioned. So I think they're a very interesting team Yeah, and just just one more thing Josh Hermsmeyer talked on my podcast last week about how they thought Chicago could be an overrated team Obviously they've been called Jacksonville 2.0 and I can't shake that analogy because don't I don't think it's that far off base Yeah, no, and I think that's really smart because like, you know, you have a quarterback that hasn't proven himself Maybe he had a good year, but he mr. Biscay has got a lot to prove And yeah, that I think that's a very apt analogy. Yep, and I think they're offensive line It's a little bit more public issue too. So I would agree that the Bears Maybe not maybe should not be the favorites to win that NFC north My cover in the future is also NFL related, but I want to talk about the Jets because last week We had bud Elliott on here talking about college football and he mentioned the importance of coaching changes as It relates to betting teams early in the season and when the Jets hired Adam Gaze It looked like they'd be moving to a slow-paced offense because the Dolphins under Gaze last year ranked 31st in situation neutral pace that is according to football outsiders and the Jets are 28th, so Wasn't a big deviation, but people did seem to downgrade the Jets despite that They viewed the Jets as being a middling team when in actuality. They were already slow So adding adding Gaze didn't have to change the situation at all But this is also a different situation than what Gaze had in Miami because there he had Ryan Tannehill and Brock Osweiler I says quarterbacks and neither guy is currently a starter in the NFL because Marcus Mario is gonna hold off Ryan Tannehill For that starting job, but when your talent is that bad and Ed You you know this from like a basketball perspective when you have bad talents You want to play slow and you want to increase variance because you're not gonna win a game when the sample size gets too large and I think that that may have been what Gaze was doing because he has always said in the press that he wants to run an Uptempo offense and he hasn't had that since his time in Denver But as often to coordinate with the Broncos in 2013, they ranked third in situation neutral pace They were ninth the year after that and Sam Donald is not Peyton man So I think expecting them to rank third in pace is outrageous But I also don't think that Sam Donald is Brock Osweiler and the Jets have been running on Tempo so far in the preseason According to Pat Thorman of Establish the Run the Jets have gone no huddle on 11 of 23 snaps that Donald under center in the preseason They were no huddle just 4% of the time last year That does not mean that will carry over into the regular season Especially if Donald does wind up struggling which is possible because he struggled for the first 12 weeks last year But I think it does mean they'll be faster than expected at least early on as long as Donald is not atrocious Their total for their week one game against the Bills is 38 and a half at Fandall Sportsbook And I think the over there is a pretty good bet the Bills defense is very good And I respect them but the Jets offense should be operating faster And they may be better this year with Ryan Khalil, Kolechio Semile, Jameson Crowder, Levy on Bell all in the fold and Gase may push them at a faster pace not just in what he was last year But but then what they were last year the Jets defense is also super banged up with Avery Williamson done for the year Their linebacker to main Johnson already banged up so I think that it makes sense to at least bet the over at 38 and a half but This would also help boost the Jets individual player props if they run a higher pace That's gonna give them more plays more volume and that helps out Darnell helps out Levy on helps out Robbie Anderson helps That everyone across the board so I would check those out as well and see if there is a market there You want to dive into but I think that at least for week one I want to bet the over for the Jets the Bills at 38 and a half. I think it makes sense to buy in there So Ed, what about with you? Are you okay? talking yourself into things like this because There really isn't a data-backed reason to say the Adam Gase will run a Mid-level pace or even an up tempo pace this year, but I think based on reading the tea leaves I am okay Reacting to that. What about you would you need to see more before you invested based on something like that? Yeah, I think I need to see a little bit more just if they're actually kind of gonna see it in in the regular season and You know, I mean you mentioned that the Bills defense is good. So You can't run too many plays if you're going through and out every time as well. So I I do have a lot of strength for Sam Darnold I think with the right coaching he could be a great quarterback and part of partly. That's the just the terror of When he just single-handedly shredded Stanford his last year at USC I mean the guy the guy did not miss a pass in the first half. I think he missed one It was it was kind of dreadful The worry for me is that he could be Jamis Winston from an interception perspective And like that was my top comp cup for him to me out of college So it could be a lot of picks, but I think there's gonna be a lot of fun throws in there, too Yeah, I think you're right I mean the guy the guy clearly has talent and I'm not sure I buy that he's a turnover machine yet I know that was kind of a problem as last year in college and I mean every rookie's gonna come in and throw some picks, right? so You know if he can be accurate with the ball and we've definitely seen that At least a USC I Think I think that could be good. So I would wait a little bit more like another example with Bob was talking about I'm really looking forward to the Michigan middle Tennessee Total just because like if you think Gadas is going to run faster, which I think he will and we know that we have guys That are gonna get it done against the middle Tennessee defense. So I'm a little bit sure more sure from an efficiency standpoint there I'm a little bit less sure from a ship efficiency standpoint for this NFL game one Which is why I'd be a little bit more hesitant sure, but well, yeah I mean clearly I think there should be value in looking at pace I mean Bud's clearly done this for the last couple years of college football There's no reason not to apply the same thinking in the NFL Just getting me more college football talk. I like it. I like it. I'm looking forward to that shape Haderson interesting to see what he can do this year. I think that yeah He'll be one of my favorite guys to watch this year for better or for worse. I think that he'll be very interesting Interested to see how that goes for him. That is all we have for today But another podcast coming up later this week on Thursday again talking NFL with Rob Pizzola going from a team projection perspective We want to you know talk some of what along the same lines that we discussed here with the Jets So more of that coming up later this week Make sure you subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts Spotify Apple podcasts the Google Play Store And Stitcher as well all those spots you can find covering the spread and while you're there leave a rating and review as well Ed want to thank you for coming on anything going on over at the power rank over our new podcast this week Yeah, well actually Jim It's a huge day for my podcast over the football analytic show over the last month and a half I've been working on a preview series. Yes, so this is 10 episodes. They're each about 10 minutes long which I find is a good length to tell a good story, but not too long for for People get bored just listening to me talk. So these are 10 episodes. It's it's my college It's it's my football preview series. I cover both college football and the NFL the first one drop today It's about skill versus luck in NFL quarterbacks and just a completely different approach at looking at NFL Quarterback statistics and which ones we can trust and which ones maybe we Shouldn't trust as much. Yeah, which unfortunately is something that I use in my model So it was an interesting episode in which I'm really kind of doubting some of the things I've done in the past But I think it's a it's good to to kind of refresh and look at what we should put in our model And what we can add later and then and then I'm talking about Derek Carr and Jared golf. Oh You're saying good things about my son Jared or bad things. Yeah Okay, I'll have to tune in to check it out But the format of that you did a similar thing with the college basketball stuff leading to the tournament I loved that format as someone who can't really pay attention longer than 10-ish minutes to a lot of things So personally as a consumer, I enjoyed that so I'm looking forward to checking out and making sure you are not Muddy muddy in the name of my son Jared Of course. Yeah, and Jim I appreciate the con words about the March Manus thing You know, that was an interesting process for me because like I felt like the first couple of them were great But man, I was really tired doing the last couple of episodes of that series And so one of the things in my process for this was just to start out Early enough so that I could give each episode the time that it deserved and I've been pretty happy with that Seven of my recorded as of right now eight nine will get recorded later this week and Still don't have any idea about the 10th, but I mean this is also a crazy time of year for you So I think you're gonna be tired regardless at that point. So yeah Well, it's not like I'm not tired now, but right like with a little bit You know, that was kind of my test run and trying this process out and I think people like it and So now with football, I've hopefully given myself enough time that that every story deserves your attention Whereas maybe the last episode of the March Madness one could does that mean you're gonna run it back this year with March Madness again I think so. Okay. Yeah, I'll see any reason why not to there might be eight episodes instead of 11. Okay So that's that's kind of the plan 11 kind of killed me I said to make sure that I'd still be getting my my podcast goodness once March comes around So I'm looking forward to that. I mean you personally can just DM me and we'll write all the advice that you need But but yeah for for everyone else. Yeah. Well, we'll probably do. Yeah Almost doing that again Make sure you check that out first one as Ed said did go up already so you can check that out and subscribe to his podcast as well You can find Ed on Twitter and find all those those podcasts there at the power rank I am at Jim Saunders J I M S A N N ES You can also follow the Fandral podcast network at Fandral podcast big thing He goes out to our producer Calvin Theobald for keeping us on the video side of things here Cal Thank you as always and a big Thank you to whalecapper for spreading his knowledge about tennis and making me feel like I should lay down some bets Which I never thought I would do for tennis So that tells you a lot of what I think about whalecappers insights. I just want to throw one other thing I didn't mention that my podcast is called the football analytics show So if you want to catch the preview series football analytics show is I think pretty much anywhere You can find covering the spread so I listen to it on Spotify personally, so I know it's there That's where I listen to all my podcasts Yeah, you can find on Spotify the football analytics show find Ed there find us covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts I want to thank you all for tuning in. We'll talk to you again on Thursday to get more NFL discussion until then Good luck with your bets. We'll talk to you again soon. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network