 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network It is not just the NFL but dominate storylines on Thanksgiving week because we got a massive Massive slate of college football coming up and also World Cup matches underway We're gonna talk to the guy who was low on Argentina coming into this year Dr. Ed Feng get his read on the opening couple of matches in the World Cup and break down a college football week number 13 Right now. This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire calm Join here as mentioned by dr. Ed Feng find Ed's work over the power ain't comment You want to do that because Ed as mentioned was low on Argentina. We talked last week. He said hey Argentina a bit overrated. I want to bet Poland and Mexico both those teams plus 490 to win group C and Ed Look at pretty good so far. How are you feeling? I'm feeling all right I mean when I woke up and I saw that Saudi Arabia had beaten Argentina. I was pretty pumped It was you know, they they in no way dominated that match I think in some places I saw that Saudi Arabia had 0.1 expected goals Yet they bagged to and that was enough to pull off a pretty shocking upset Clearly Argentina is a better team than Saudi Arabia. Argentina is the best team in that group Okay, but I just thought they were overrated in the markets. I still believe that to be true What's interesting is that Fandall actually moved pretty hard against me on on those two bets from Mexico and Poland, I mean you could have gotten those plus 550 As of when I sent my newsletter out Saturday I still think Argentina is a little I still think Argentina is overrated Yeah, Poland and Mexico look pretty wretched the last 20 minutes of that match that I just saw not too long ago I was not impressed by but either team. Honestly if either of those teams wins I'm in a really good spot and then now I'm now I'm realizing like yeah I'm not in the best spot now that they tied so I mean still better than than I was at the beginning of the day for sure but yeah, I mean, I'll just show you how random soccer is and You know, there's still a little bit of luck and in Argentina losing to Saudi Arabia that shouldn't happen And we'll talk more about that We'll talk about the US's opening match and broad take this in the World Cup and then also break down college football week 13 Throughout the course today But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts our week 12 NFL Show be up tomorrow with Ryan Williams We'll break down what my numbers say about this week other big games will talk some Thanksgiving games and more All on the cover in the spread feed and also up on the Fandall YouTube page after that So subscribe whether it be the Fandall YouTube page or the covering the spread podcast seed wherever you get your podcast football fans Make this a thanksgiving to remember with Fandall America's number one sports book because now when you bet an NFL Same-game Parley now through November 28th All customers can get up to $1,000 in free bets win or lose just bet an NFL Same-game Parley or same game Parley plus of at least $20 the bigger you bet the more you'll get back in free bets NFL same-game parlays are the perfect way to combine your bets for a chance at a larger payday Build your own or choose from one of the popular SGPs pre-built for you and Vandals top rated sportsbook app However, you want to play get up to $1,000 in free bets win or lose When you bet an NFL same-game Parley of four like or more like every moment more with Fandall an official sports betting partner of the NFL Must be true and plus in select states first Bonus issued is non Let's rub a free bet to expire seven days after a seat max free bet $100 restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook.fandall.com gambling problem call 1-800-gambler or visit fandall.com slash RG in Arizona 1-800-next-step or Tex-next-septify 3-3-4-2 In Indiana 1-800-9 with it in Connecticut 1-888-789-7777 over the ccpg.org Shad in Kansas in Wyoming 1-805-224-700 and in Kansas KS gambling health comm Louisiana 1-877-7770 stop In New York 1-877-8 hope and why or Tex-hope and why in Tennessee call the red line at 1-889-9789 or in West Virginia 1-800-gambler.net Let's dig more into the world cup and talk about what we've seen here from the early couple of matches It's a couple of days in the books. We saw the us playing we saw that Argentina lost ed when you look at what we've seen so far from the world cup What are the big takeaways for you? I thought the I thought you could have A lot of optimism and yet a lot of pessimism over the us team I personally thought they outplayed wales had a world-class goal by tim way in the first half Wales had a couple opportunities in the second half. So the xg was kind of equal Um, actually equal you have to you have to kind of take away the the penalty kick Yeah, uh, because the us made a bad mistake. You know, it was it was just a dumb tackle in the box and and uh Yeah, so you they gave away the penalty kick wales converts that they get a tie I don't know. I mean, I thought I mean, I thought the us played pretty well Uh, the reason for pessimism is because bernard and arid and sin didn't get on until the 60th minute And I think he's one of the top three players on the team geo ran. I didn't even get off the bench And he might be the best player america Producers ever. I think he's got that kind of potential. So it's really disappointing those two things And then the other reason is I mean england just look completely dominant In in every facet of the game, uh, they played aran and I've been kind of talking up aran is probably one of the One of the better. Maybe I mean They are the second best worst team in a in a group. They're like 32nd in my numbers. They're not bad. They have, uh A guide to remedy that that plays in portugal for for a champions league level team and is their top goal scorer Uh england completely dominated. So that's obviously not good for the us in england dominated in the way that I Personally have never seen england dominate. Uh, they dominated possession. They did what top elite teams in the world should do to inferior Opponents, uh, they they played a type of possession style game that this is the kind of thing that the us can do to You know, maybe a lower level Central american team, but they have no prayer of doing it against the germany So, uh, yeah, I mean england looked impressive They are about two two and three to win against a little bit less than two and three to win against the us in that next match Which is obviously not good. Um, you know, us probably gonna need some breaks But but they did play well So I do have a little bit of hope there and it all goes down friday at 2 p.m Yeah, uh, the uh england win is minus 180 right now over at fandal sports book The us five to one to win and the draw is plus 300 in that game looking at the Group number or group b or group c. I should say the argentina group right now argentina plus 160 Saudi arabia is down to plus 250 because they got that win in the books. Obviously that matters a lot Uh, you got mexico plus 350 polin plus 350 So a lot more wide open now and I think it kind of backs up what you said earlier where the draw for those two Didn't help you as much as you might have thought and you said they didn't look that good either Which doesn't hurt but uh any read for you on that group given what we saw this morning Yeah, I don't know. I mean, I I need either mexico or polin to play a lot better than they did today And that that that's kind of what it what it comes down to Robert levin doski polin's best. I mean one of the best goal scorers in the world missed the penalty kick Uh today that obviously would have helped a lot. You know, I just I didn't need I didn't care which team won just need one of them to win. Yeah, right, right So it's a little disappointing that that that didn't happen And I think saudi arabia is going to regress to to what they are which is not, you know One of the weaker teams in the world cup You know polin should be able to put them away in that next match and and we'll see what mexico can do against argentina I mean, they're pretty big pretty big underdogs Um, so we'll see Do you think that mexico's shots of contending against argentina increased? Based on argentina, you know being confirmed as being in line with your priors or Did the disappointments in that match with polin's nullify any gains you may have had from the argentina loss I mean, it's hard for me to tell from the markets just because I can't really compare where the markets thought of argentina before and after that game The smart thing is to not really adjust at all. Yeah given given the way that game turned out I mean, it was it was pretty lost at argentina should have won that game Um, so yeah, I don't know I would I would guess the market was pretty close to its prior. It still seems Significantly more in favor of argentina than what my numbers say Um In argentina is better than mexico. Sure. So we need a little bit, you know The mexico needs to bring their a game and get some breaks Yeah, well, we'll certainly see how things play out as we go forward But uh, good to get that uh confirmation that your numbers are on the right path I know you don't need that confirmation You've been doing this for a long time and have a lot of thought process behind your numbers, but Never hurts to get a good confirmation in your in your favor right away Let's talk now about some college football because we have massive games and ed you're in an arbor So let's start things off with the game. We got michigan at ohio state Ohio state right now seven and a half point favorite if ando sports book total for this game is 56 and half michigan Got a big scare this past week, but hey, they stayed alive and this game is Still big a shot obviously that the loser could still go to the playoff, but pretty big game here can Michigan keep this game close and potentially maybe even win. Uh, can they cover a seven and a half point spread? What's your read on this game? I mean, they certainly need to keep it close Yeah, my number's having this exactly at seven. I believe seven is Essentially the right number. I think I think there were eights when this opened on sunday and it's been coming down I wouldn't be surprised if it closes at seven. So don't really see any value in the spread Look, I mean ohio state also had a stick here this past weekend. They were only up three late at maryland in a game that they were Pretty huge favorites And and I would yeah, you know, michigan Had a scare but illinois has been the best defense in college football by my adjusted success rate Like that is a legitimate unit They were able I mean they they they just decided that michigan wasn't allowed to run the ball And and they put a lot of guys in the box and then like quorum gets hurt and the back of running back from michigan wasn't around and A couple other weapons were missing as well Yeah, I mean that's that's going to happen. So When michigan goes down to ohio state, I think you know, this ohio state defense has been really good Their third when I look at adjusted success rate This is a pretty big surprise for a unit that struggled last year A lot of credit clearly has to go to defense coordinator jim nulls who came over from oklahoma state and Yeah, I mean, I think michigan can keep it close You know, their defense is is probably going to be the worst unit on the field But still a good unit 20 second in my adjusted success rate So I think blake quorum plays I think he could have played in the second half against illinois, but they wanted to take the precaution He's going to play in this game. Is michigan going to be going to be able to run the ball? I don't know. I mean, I think uh, you know how state's going to try to stop that so Michigan's going to have to be able to throw as well. Um Yeah, it'll be interesting. I mean, obviously it's better for the big ten for how state loses. So They have they probably have the better argument of making it as a right loss One-loss team that doesn't make their conference championship game Yeah, they certainly do and like you said, they had to keep things closed Michigan does regardless But we'll see how that one plays out, but fun game a second consecutive year It's going to be a delight to watch that one I love they have it in the early window too kind of opens you up for the afternoon to watch some other games in the evening So looking forward to that one for sure. Let's talk about another team in the playoff race in it right now Iowa state at tcu tcu this spread is down to nine and a half right now So it is cross 10 tcu Got by by the skin of their teeth this past weekend I had horrible flashbacks to drew henson sliding to get the The place kicked down in that game against northwestern at the end of the regulation for michigan a couple years ago just Burned into my brain. It was like three hours in the rain just to watch them lose in triple overtime on a jake But touched out, but tcu Does win they stay undefeated They got to win here though because they've had a lot of really close games tough schedule, obviously But a lot of close games for tcu Can they cover against iowa state a very good defense and uh, you know impress the committee once again this week I mean they should be able to I mean my numbers have this at at almost 11 points Uh didn't much see much value at 10 and a half, but maybe a little bit more interesting at nine and a half These two teams are interesting in that tcu is five and o in one score games And that's certainly been part of the narrative of why they kind of don't necessarily deserve to be in the playoff race You know, they've been down come back Uh, once the nail biters iowa state is one in six in one score games, which you know, they're a better team probably than their four and seven record overall suggests I I ran some numbers, uh, you know like given the win probability in this game Given that tcu is most likely playing kansas state next week and my numbers will put that as essentially a toss up at a neutral site When you work those two things together tcu has a 40 chance of winning those two games So less than 50 50 um So 60 chance that they they actually fall out one one of these two weeks, uh, I think that's about right so Yeah, I mean they've been playing well. Um, they probably win this one more likely they lose against kansas state This total seems pretty low to me 47 and a half. Uh, I like the over my numbers have this in the 50s um I mean I had I had the over in tcu at texas, which was an embarrassment Um, and they clearly went over last week, but uh, my numbers do like the over and I think that that's the right side on on that Yeah, totally as you said 47 and a half right now for that one With that at nine and a half are you confident enough to bet it at nine and a half or Are you keeping it on the market to see if you can get a better number as it moves? Do you want more value there? What's your read on that side? I don't know. I can't see this getting lower than nine and a half. Yeah So I I don't know. I just probably stay away. I think that's that's pretty efficient, right? I mean somewhere near 10 Okay, but we do like total uh over 47 and a half Let's move now to the other game that the other team that's watching tcu watch michigan close That is notardame at usc where this spread has come down to usc is now a four and a half point favorite total is 63 and a half and Notardame Playing better of lake got that clemson win. They've had some convincing wins against lesser teams as well Can they spend an upset here and uh keep a rival out of the playoffs? Absolutely, they can definitely upset usc my numbers are giving that about 38 chance and I'm a little I'm a little pissed that kayla williams is now become the heisman frontrunner I thought I had everything everything awesome with a ticket on stroud and a ticket on blake quorum And he is screwing everything up and it's not really his fault either It's that absolute joke of a defense of ucla last week that just allowed I mean usc's defense too just just a complete Complete lack of any type of competence on that side of the ball And usc really got away with one last week, right? Like they actually got stopped And ucla had the ball down three with two minutes to go I certainly expected ucla to just march down the field and either tie or win that game usc gets a pick So really really a lot of things could have ended right there last week Notardame, you know since uh drew pine that has taken over They have won five in a row and eight of nine games including obviously a big one against climson You know the numbers look pretty good. I mean they're 20th in my adjusted success rate on offense 29th overall This is over the course of the season But the majority of that is is going to be drew pine They are going against an absolute joke of a defense And honestly, I mean it just goes you as much as I will tell you how sticky success rate is compared to other metrics It had usc as a pretty good defense at one point this season Which has turned out to to not be the case at all so Yeah, I don't know. I mean, uh, you know, this this was usc by six on sunday It's down to four and a half. My numbers have it by four. I think the market is pretty spot on here Uh, I think the total is pretty spot on here. I have it right at 63 as well And uh, it should be a fun one. I I presume this is in the night window So this this will be a fun fun late game and and yeah, Notre Dame get gets a break or two They can absolutely win this game. Yeah, uh, 7 30 kickoff for this game. Um, you mentioned the Uh, winouts Notre Dame. You said 38 percent their money line right now plus 158, which is 38.8 percent So it seems like everything is in line with your numbers for this week, which again, that's feel good It's annoying to not get some bets down But like yeah, I feel good to get the confirmation from the market that you're on the the right side here Yeah, I mean there's a time usually like a week 11 week 12. It's like Pretty in line with where everything opens up and stays and Um, yeah, it's just hard to find value late in the year I had stacked usc ucla for college football dfs last week. So I was very okay with the defenses just not showing up Um, it was just I mean it was that second half was just Unbelievable, I mean, I think it was perfect. It was fun. But like at some point you're just like, I mean, is anyone gonna play defenses? Yeah, I was okay with not doing it personally. No objections. Perfect game. No notes. I'm I'm all good at that but Honestly, you get the michigan, ohio state game to start. Uh, iowa state tcu I believe is in the afternoon as well. So That's it's at four o'clock. So that's right after the game effectively like that's a that's a good day of football Windup head to toe. Yeah, and you can start I presume that the first world cup game is like 5 a.m. Eastern time that morning So you go 5 a.m. Until 10 I don't think i'm built for that ed I'm not built for that. I'm not built for that. You might be uh kudos to you if you are but i'm I'm not hanging with that anymore Alrighty, that is all that we have here for the college football and world cup edition of this show for this week But ed, you know I I think that we're feeling pretty good about things so far on the world cup side of things If people want to check out your numbers for the world cup check out your college football stuff Where can they find all your work? Yeah, check it out at the power rank com the best ways to sign up for the free email newsletter Try to talk about bets I make and why I make them I also produce 7 dug at saturday, which is curated list of sports betting tips and news In a little bit of humor so check that out at the power rank com and then if if you go on like If you go on the world cup rankings and there's a link to like all my predictions um I'll post a second set of games pretty soon So you can check out all that stuff there and obviously all my football College and nfl as well. All right, and you can find ed on twitter at the power rank I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s back with you once again tomorrow for nfl Week 12 break down on the ryan williams will get you set for thanksgiving and for the sunday games as well But it's going to be a delightful stretch of sports here in the next uh week or so We'll talk to you once again tomorrow. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network