 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network We are heading down to Mexico City to wrap up week number 11 in the NFL We have got the 49ers and the Cardinals on a neutral site down in Mexico and a breakdown that game from a betting perspective Let you know we're seeing value in the prop market and more over at Fandall sports book by talking to Ryan Williams This is covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network and Number fire.com. My name is Jim Saunders. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire.com Join here as mentioned by Ryan Williams checking out on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W Ryan week 11 Was pretty boring most the early slate But then did pick up with watching Dak Prescott Alicia flamethrower watch the Patrick Mahomes doing Patrick Mahomes stuff So did end on a high note. How are you doing today? Oh, you know doing all right Yeah, I thought the the main slate was was fairly decent for me. I had a couple bad beats I mean, I had a lot of Denver offense going in the late slate That you know, I should have known what to expect from that That that didn't make me feel great, but I was pretty I mean the the numbers on the Chicago, Atlanta game We're just they were just too too hard to overlook and yeah I just took my shot with fields and Mooney Played see Pat, which you know didn't really work out But the way that the slate Presented itself. It worked out that he got that return touchdown. Yeah So that was fun But um, but yeah, I mean we're really focused on the Thanksgiving slate That's coming up the one that you know the slates to beat all slates That's that's the one that we look forward to every year So I can't wait to discuss that one with you later this week I was kicking myself after the Patterson touchdown cuz like oh man, I knew about the revenge game I was like, okay, that's that's obviously the motive primal to any factor What else could matter more than the revenge game But I was like I didn't think to stack him with the Falcons defense and special teams like ah You get the double dip the only time in the world You get a double dip where you get six points for a touchdown twice in the same play and I I'm a fool Ryan I overlooked it, you know, the revenge game was accounted for I did not account for the J Ron curse revenge game against the Vikings, you know Just a lot of a lot of flubs a lot of errors on my end for the main slate too much Kenyan Drake, you know Just just making great decisions betting the Jets plus three and a half a day Highlighted by great decisions across the board and I'm ready for Monday night for sure. We talked about that game We talked about that game I got ugly I got ugly backdoor done on a lot of things I felt like But you know, Patriots was strong felt very strong about the Cowboys one and a half which ended up incredible So we didn't even one and a half the one and a half was you know, it did you laid the one and a half You didn't have to sweat that one. No back door there. No back door there. No back door there So it's fun, man. It's it's always fun when things can break your way But overall, yeah, what an ugly what an ugly slate week 11 was on Sunday Yeah, yeah, we actually went head-to-head on Falcons and bears side Falcons minus three yet bears plus three So it's fitting that was a push that that that was destined to be a push at all times I saw Tyler LG or get kind of loose and that last drive I was like, oh, is he gonna score like and then he slid down I was like, that's what he should have done But I was a little upset about I was kind of hoping because I knew that the Jets game was bound to like Ruin me so I had to like try to get the win via the Falcons, but it was not to be Speaking of which I've got a I've got a wager on tonight's game, too We'll talk about whether I feel good about that now in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast still three podcasts For this week on Thanksgiving. We've got this one today. We've got our college football week number 13 Episode coming up tomorrow with Ed Fang will also talk some world cup with Ed tomorrow on that show Then on Wednesday, Ryan is back with us to break down NFL week 12 betting. We'll talk some Thanksgiving. We'll talk about the other slate other games as well So get all those by subscribing to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast and make sure you're subscribed to the Fandal YouTube page because those do go up there as well Now is the perfect time to download Fandal America's number one sports boat because right now New customer is getting no sweat first bet up to one a thousand dollars That's free that's back if your first bet doesn't win trap features like saying game parlays play your way and bet on more than just the final score Wager on everything from touchdowns total yards and catches all in and out that's safe secure and super easy to use So sign up today for a no sweat first bet make every moment more this season the Fandal Official sportsbook partner of the NFL must be 21 plus in select States first online real money wager only a refund issued is non withdrawal with free vets to expire in 14 days Restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook.fandal.com gambling problem call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit fandal.com slash RG in Arizona 1-800-DEXTEF or text XNEPTIFI 3-3-4-2 in Connecticut 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org Sush chat in Indiana 1-800-9 with it in Kansas and Wyoming 1-800-522-4700 and also in Kansas KS Gambling health comm in Louisiana 1-877-770 stop in New York 1-877-8 hope and wire text Hope and why and in Tennessee call the red line at 1-889-9789 Let's take a look here at this Monday night game between the 49ers and the Cardinals again This is a neutral site game the 49ers eight and a half point favorites total is 43 and a half and right before you talk About those markets top-down view of this game for you Yeah, so top-down view for me. Let's see. We're at the eight and a half. So with no Kyler We're we're gonna see Cole McCoy yet again And this offense kind of you know rally around him, you know being a backup quarterback This the guy who's been a journeyman of a backup quarterback so far Eight and a half feels like a lot. We just saw the 49ers lay, you know A bunch of points that the other week weren't able to cover Cliff Kingsbury since being with the Cardinals has had their number The Cardinals are six one and one against the spread under Cliff Kingsbury. So with this being at a neutral side I feel like I have no choice but to take the Cardinals here with their points I feel like this is a game with their try and get the run game involved just a little bit more The Andre Hopkins the way Rondo Moore has been playing will help the 49ers, you know, I think that they They can still win this game outright I'm definitely not gonna take the Cardinals even at even at three to one I think is what I saw it last time which you know always is enticing on the neutral side But you know it just depends on what Jimmy G we're gonna get He's had some success in this matchup against this defense before this is an incredible matchup for George Kittle As the Arizona Cardinals defenses bleeds points to tight ends But they have they have trouble, you know if the game is able to stay close to be able to put teams out of reach So I just feel like you know the way that this game shapes up the Cardinals should Be able to cover this large of a spread. Yeah, so the bet I was wondering if I'd regret is is Cardinals It was plus eight at the time So I'm not gonna get CLV here because Kyler ruled out also they lost a pretty important corner back So I'm not gonna get CLV here. It's gonna close at eight and a half I would assume and I'm not gonna I'm gonna get a bad number on that But I still don't feel bad about it because I actually when I've made that bet I assume the Cardinals would be starting McCoy based on initial reports on Kyler's injury based on what the early word was with regards to Being a week-to-week kind of thing So I assume that Kyler was in there and I have a process I go through when trying to account for injuries Plugging in a backup player and seeing the impact that that makes and when I put in McCoy over Kyler Murray my numbers were still saying trying to get the exact number here They were saying that this is a five point seven point game in the 49ers favor That's still significant. That means that they're definitely the better team But that also means I got two point eight points the wiggle room here To be wrong and still potentially cover this number You're getting eight which is not a key number, but it's you know adjacent to a key number You get some wiggle room with like a misdemeanor point or something like that you get seven six all those so I Still feel okay about it, especially given this total is not super high It's tough for to cover eight and a half point spread when the total is 43 and a half them when it's like 50 and a half Whatever it may be so and the other thing that you mentioned that I that played in my mind and increased my confidence in taking this was Can the 49ers really pull away, you know, we we talk about a Good rushing offense being a key to putting a team away and the 49ers have that they have arguably the best rushing offense in football, but Can they hang a big score and really bury a team? I'm not sure so I feel good about the eight and a half I don't I feel good about if you hadn't you know bet the Cardinals, you know I think I would take eight and a half personally But like and I still feel okay, but eight despite it moving against me. I just It does make you a little bit uncomfortable betting on a backup quarterback against Christian McCaffrey Debo Samuel George Kittle etc etc, but I still think that that probably is the right side Yes, and and and I agree and this this is gonna be an interesting game and we can talk about this later As we get into the specific players But playing in Mexico City like this is this is like playing in Denver. I mean yeah from what I can see and the elevation is outrageous 7000 349 feet. It's above Denver. Yeah So this will have an effect, you know on these teams, you know whether How you have one of you that are not like it's still gonna have an effect on the way that these guys play So I think there are some interesting angles that we can talk about when we get into the specific players And now I feel worse about eight because it just moved to nine and a half So it seems like the news of Kyler Murray being out actually did affect the line eventually so it's no nine and a half Oops, I guess that's we'll just kind of live with that But we did see the market just moved to nine and a half right now We'll see how this goes. Well, that was because report this morning the Kyler Murray will not play for this week Deandra Hopkins does seem like he will play so some of the Cardinals side here and the prop markets on them Yeah, they're pretty sparse just because there are still those question marks around the injuries But what are you seeing out there as far as props on the Cardinal side of things that are enticing to you? Yeah, so like you said pretty pretty sparse I mean even if you're looking at others other Areas outside of the fan bill sportsbook. You're still having trouble finding that because of the uncertainty I believe around the quarterback position and not wanting to get a weird number But rondo more is going to be a guy that I look to target You know, we don't really get like rushing receiving with him like an Evo Samuel or something like that But you know, he has he has the propensity to take some carries He has 23 targets over the past two games one of those games being with Kyler one being with Colt McCoy But in the Colt McCoy game 13 targets, you know more more so than the Andre Hopkins I believe is what I saw and so you love that he's getting involved whatever they open at With him on a yardage prop. I feel like is is going to feel low Just the I mean Colt McCoy threw it 37 times In the first match up against a 49ers or 49ers a ram secondary that we tend to not want to target against So I think that's interesting. I will be interested. I think this is already listed and it's in the 70s I'll pull it up again. I had it up, but James Connors rushing and receiving 72 and a half 72 and a half. So I I feel like I'm interested in that just because of how many touches they were willing to give him with Colt McCoy And you know, if this if we can have a neutral game script if they are staying well within that eight and a half I feel like he will heavily be involved. There's no, you know, Benjamin there Which does make me Interested in somebody else for an anytime touchdown, but as far as the rushing and receiving prop goes I'm willing to get on that number With with James Conner and then I just would like to see reception totals If we can somehow get a Trey McBride reception total with no zek earths being out there This is the backup quarterback Do they try and get this rookie going that they spend a high draft pick on as far as draft capital goes Let's let's get some Trey McBride sprinkled in there There are still some pieces here on the cardinal side that make you interested and you can see why you know Colt McCoy was in good hands Even in that last game because these are still weapons That you know, he he's able to use at a high level. Were you hinting at a chiante ingram anytime touchdown? I was. Oh, hell. Yeah 11 to 1. I was looking at the exact same thing I love to ingram is So Cory Clement will be active this week. He'll be up for special teams effectively I think ingram is going to be effectively the only guy behind james connor and I mean like i'm guessing something happened with you know, benjamin that made them comfortable releasing him But like clearly they got to have some level of faith in chiante ingram if they were like, okay just releasing, you know, benjamin so 11 to 1 Isn't bad You would think um, yeah, I mean I just I just was like wow where where would chiante ingram possibly be You know and and usually they they price up those backup running back, right? Um, when you see, you know, I mean all the time I mean anything over Eight and a half to one is always something that i'm gonna be interested in but yeah kept scrolling and I was like Oh, wow chiante ingram 11 to 1, you know, and you're looking at he only got one carry last week Not really involved in the past game, but there is no, you know, benjamin now And this guy was a healthy scratch coach's decision for the houston team that he just signed with so I mean for whatever that's worth, you know, they do have whatever faith in chiante Plus when we're looking at the elevation we could see maybe, you know James connor gets spelled a little bit more than he needs to especially with the conditions that he's had health wise in the past So i'm just gonna be willing to take a shot there at 11 to 1 I know that's probably the only prop that we're gonna get in the market for chiante ingram But yeah, he's an interesting piece all around. I could not agree more I did look at col McCoy anytime touched down at 13 to 1 that's now 14 to 1 So I think that's an indication that I should just save my money. Don't do it I think the ingram one is a better a better recommendation. Okay. Let's talk about the more fun side here. That is the 49ers They're fully healthy We saw them with elin michael being back last week debo sannuel was back as well Anything popping for you on their side now that we've kind of got at least a game of seeing how they want to play things Yeah, I mean it it's tough because I try not to say, you know the too too many mouths to feed I feel like we used that a lot um in the industry But when we're looking at prop market here and where the leans are like that's how I feel about this 49ers team Like they are just so stacked across the board that any one of these guys can pop off at any time Especially with christian mccaffery being there and the usage that this guy takes up It just doesn't make you feel, you know Debo sannuel at a Receiving number of 50 and a half is something that I would have jumped on, you know against this cardinals team In any type of propensity and then you're looking at the way that this this 49ers team has played and you know You just don't know about it. I mean even brandon iuk who's kind of found, you know a second wind here In this season 56 and a half feels a little bit hefty but I won't blame anybody for getting in on those numbers The one that stands out to me is george kittle, you know at 44 and a half yards I mean fricking tommy tremble for the panthers almost got to this number And we're talking about george kittle like this is just this is just way Too low of a number for what they've been allowing to the tight end position all year long So getting in on kittle props where you can receptions yardage. Like I said 44 and a half It is great. I mean even the any time touchdown for george kittle. You're looking at plus 180 Which which is very enticing The way that jimmy drapo has been targeting in the past couple of games. So so that's kind of where I am with it They don't have any listed and I haven't been able to find it anywhere else But ilan mitchell as we're talking about backup running backs like he would be a guy I definitely would want to get on From any type of prop standpoint. I feel like well open too low He he's been utilized right off of the ir fresh off the ir Even with christian mccaffrey being there and it just speaks to the The it just speaks to how they like to play football like even with christian mccaffrey there They're still willing to give ilan mitchell, you know double digit touches To give him a rest and to spell him And christian mccaffrey is so efficient with his touches. It doesn't really matter But the fact that they were using him like in the red zone like fresh off of the ir Just showed me that they want to give ilan mitchell some love and he's coming in It's it's you know, even the even the sportsbook have caught up to it because he's the third Favorite to score a touchdown at plus 130 Which you know, you can talk yourself into that it kind of feels like, you know You're kind of leaving some on the table, but plus 130 is nice Also before with james conner plus 100 for him to score. I absolutely love that any anytime. There's plus money I'm on a favorable guy, you know, I'm gonna take a jump. Yeah with the Ilan mitchell and I thought the most encouraging thing for him last week was that they were using him Even that game was like tight that game was I mean it was tight the entire way And ilan mitchell still got a lot of run which to me says that's like There I think they intend to do is using him with mccaffrey, especially like you mentioned the elevation Maybe they give mccaffrey a couple more extra blows. That could be good for mitchell the one that Was at least someone treating to me was the debo sandal one because of the injuries in the secondary for Arizona 15 and a half and With mitchell and mccaffrey both being there that does kind of free debo up to be just a receiver again That's probably not his most like valuable role. Just being a pure pure wide receiver He did not get anywhere close to this number last week 24 receiving yards But if he is going to be You know a a full receiver against the beat-up secondary I think that's at least interesting. I've not taken that and I probably will not but I think that if I'm looking at a 49ers prop, that's the one that is most interesting to me As we talked about uh, james connor talked kittle talked keonte ingram the biggest of them all Any touchdown props? What's your favorite one for tonight? And any other ones you want to shout out? Yeah, I think the james connor one at plus 100 is is my favorite just because we're getting plus money on the lead back There um the way they were giving him the ball Absolutely love that. Um, we'll be taking a shot. Um, we'll be taking a shot on george kittle at plus 180 Um, I definitely would be taking a shot on keonte ingram as we talked about him being 11 to 1 um The other one who's kind of interesting to me Um It feels gross and I haven't really looked at the numbers outside of this guy Just does he just doesn't leave the field in three wide receiver sets for the 49ers Is juan jennings at plus 750 like the way you're talking about how this You know second area is beat up and we always expect You know The guys like debo and iuk to pop off but juan jennings has still You know been involved in this offense for somewhat over the past couple of weeks Um, I got that I was kind of like drafting and best ball Because of the way that uh tray lance had targeted him towards the end of last season and him being on the field Like just want to take a shot there But yeah, plus 750 like that would be another like riverbroke ron ish vet that I would kind of make there Not necessarily favorite, but just one of those things that I would you know, I could see happening in this game He kind of feels like he's taken over a bit of the kendrick borne role The kendrick borne had up there where he was only on the field in like impactful situations. You know, he's getting Um third down targets He has he's only had one target inside the red zone so far this year But he has a kendrick borne esk feel to him. Uh, so juan jennings plus 750 for that one there I think for me if I I while we were talking I did take because he had the ingrid ingram one because like, uh It actually is pretty fun to get him at 11 to 1 so I did take that while we were talking I think that's the one I'll be riding with uh for tonight You know riding on a guy who was in an inactive for the first couple of games to the cardinals Uh, didn't play a ton of snaps last week either. What could go wrong betting chiante ingram plus 1100 You know, I'm I'm feeling more skittish about this game now having seen the market move to nine and a half while we were talking so Heading into this one ryan I don't feel the best about my read on it But I feel like my hope is that I got the jets game so wrong yesterday. I know they almost covered And they should have covered I know that they should have covered but like I feel like in getting that game so wrong Maybe the universe will take pity on me tonight and allow me to get either the ingram bet or How did you get that game wrong jim like There how what what can you get wrong? You can't You like they've held them the three points of the entire game And it was a punt return touchdown to seal the game that was a bad on a team I bet on zack wilson against a bill belichick. Okay. I tweeted about that on monday. I was like, oh My numbers want me to bet a skittish deer like quarterback against bill belichick. No, we're not doing this than I did Like, you know, I didn't listen to myself at least he feels like scoring three points It doesn't let the defense down. So yeah, you know, we'll see how that goes. He's facing the bears this week So, uh, you know, hopefully fields is healthy. Hopefully fields is okay. Um, but like that could be a Either messy or fun game. I it will not be anywhere in between. It's either messy or fun Nothing else Maybe we'll make that a feature game on wednesday show, you know, what what bigger game could there possibly be on thanksgiving week Then jet's bears on sunday No bigger one no bigger one So I need to bail out tonight if the universe is feeling merciful give me a key out to ingram touchdown or get me Cardinals to somehow cover a line where I've gotten one and a half points to move against me We'll see how it plays out though. That is ryan williams ryan want to thank you once again for swinging by for today Good luck with your bets and your showdown slates or your single game slates are tonight And we'll talk to you once again wednesday for our full show talking jet's bears for all 30 minutes Love it. I can't wait. Um, I'll make sure that I wear my field jersey And uh, let's ride and get after it. Jim. No pleasure to talk with you and uh, we'll catch you next time as always I'll just rock the chad pennington figurine the whole time and we'll uh, we'll try to channel that if we can bring back chad for that game Maybe I can justify betting jets minus four in that one check out ryan on twitter at ryan alexander underscore w I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s. Good luck to all of you tonight We're back once again tomorrow to break down some college football and world cup This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network