 Good afternoon. Good evening or even good morning for some of you, I guess. This is Patrick Munley with some live market analysis. If you can hear me and see a TickMill welcome screen on your screen, could you type a Y in the chat box just to let me know that we're all set up from the audio visual side? Great stuff. Before we get going, let's, as always, remind ourselves of the risks involved with trading any financial instruments. Just to be clear that any views that I expressed during this presentation are strictly my own and they certainly don't constitute investment advice of any sort, and they are certainly not expressing the views of TickMill, the organisation. So just before we jump into today's material, brief overview of myself after I graduated, went on to Successfully Co-found and Exit a Consulting Startup, then moved on to explore my passion for markets. After taking a very big hit in the early days of what I referred to as gambling, I sought out a mentor, researched, developed, tested and implemented a robust trading plan underpinned by a rigorous risk management strategy. This plan has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. From 2013, I took on external investor capital through a managed account service I run, and again I've managed to deliver annual positive returns and I'm currently responsible for managing a multi-million dollar portfolio. From 2010, I personally mentored over 100 private traders, walled experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and more importantly the mental skills to read consistent returns from the markets. Aside from my core trading, which is now predominantly an end of day activity and is highly automated, I also have two additional projects. One is my role as a market expert for Tickmill, where I provide a daily market outlook giving traders an overview of the key market themes and the key levels in some of the major FX pairs. I also provide a chart of the day which is ostensibly a setup that I'm watching in the market for the trading session ahead. I provide some fundamental background and some technical and flow information there. The second project is that I'm also the head of trading and trader education for an online trading firm called FX Korea Swap who ostensibly are looking to take emerging retail trading talent, develop that talent and skill and then underpin that talent with a funded trading account that each independent trader can take on and grow over time. If anyone is interested in learning more about the FX Korea Swap opportunity there is a link there at the bottom of the screen. You'll get a recording of this on the YouTube channel so don't worry if you don't take the link down but you can certainly check out what's on offer from FX Korea Swap through that link. Okay, let's move on to today's material. I want to start off really by focusing some time on just thinking about some of the elements that are in play with respect to global risk sentiment. When I refer to global risk sentiment, more often than not what I'm thinking about or talking to is the S&P 500 which still really is the benchmark for risk sentiment on a global scale and obviously the S&P 500 is a benchmark index which represents the 500 largest market cap companies in the US. Now as most of you who are actively engaged in the markets will be aware obviously we've witnessed some fairly significant volatility over the March, February-March period obviously driven predominantly by the global pandemic coronavirus and aside obviously from the extremely sad and tragic human cost and elements, how we as traders have got to focus or assess the situation obviously from a financial perspective and see where trading opportunities are. The other impact that has driven this dislocation in market pricing is really the dramatic declines we've seen in the oil prices which have been predominantly led by the standoff between Russia and Saudi. So that's a backdrop in terms of the key dynamics that have been driving the forced liquidation we've seen in markets. I just want to highlight some key points here because we're at an inflection point we're going to move on to the chart shortly and look at what I'm talking about mentioning inflection point but what I want to think about is in terms of some historical overlays because in markets what we generally see is that prices have a tendency to repeat former patents. Now when I say repeat I don't mean they repeat exactly the prior patents but what we tend to see is this idea of history rhyming more likely than actually repeating. And so if we look back to the 1950s April has had a tendency to be the second best month of the year for the S&P 500. Past 20 years it's been the best month. So when march is lower of the occurrences where march has been lower of the past 20 years it's been higher, it's ended the month higher 10 out of the past 12 instances. So from a statistical perspective although the sample size isn't great there is certainly something to be cognizant of there in terms of the potential for us to see an uptick in terms of the S&P 500 through April. Now when I'm building my case for a trade execution I'm driven by price person form of this because that's the final answer. So when I'm looking at the chart everything that I do as a trader is driven by price but what I want to do as a trader to enhance my ability to maximize potential returns I want to be aware of off chart or sentiment or price patterns or historical overlays these help guide or potentially give me the opportunity to enhance my returns when I get a technical set up. So this is an important concept we want to be aware of at the moment from a seasonal perspective from a historical perspective S&P has the potential to carve out some higher ground during the month of April. Especially on the back of this liquidation move we've been down 30-35%. The next consideration and this is the chart that shows insider buying when referring to insider buying what we're talking about are those who would be in a C suite in corporates or have some type of inside access to corporate data. And what we can see here is that in 2009 insider purchase transactions peaked into the first meaningful load that we saw after the panic. So after we'd seen that fourth liquidation move we saw insider purchase transactions peaked. We saw an absolute spike to the high and then what we saw was a recovery in terms of the S&P. This would have been the stage in that panic where we'd had that initial round of physical and monetary stimulus which created what I've referred to and have posted charts on this idea of a crisis or a panic initial reaction load. And then we consolidated and then we rolled over we got another spike in insider buying on that new load and that new load was obviously the absolute low in March 2009. Since then if we look at the spikes that we've seen inside of purchases you can see that they broadly correlated with significant swing loads. And so when the last meaningful low we had was the crash obviously that we saw the back end of 2018 and then the stabilisation and again we saw a spike in insider purchase transactions. Now look where we are we've had this waterfall decline so far in the S&P and we've seen a spike equivalent to or just shy off that first gush in late 08 of insider purchasing. So this isn't this is not indicating that it's going to perfectly time the bottom but it's certainly again if we're trying to have a 360 view of the markets and pull on different areas of information then this spike is certainly something that we want to be cognisant of. Does it mean that this is the low? Well no because if you look at the equivalent spike that we've got in 08 we undercut that low before we put in the bottom. So that's another piece of information we want to be cognisant of. So far we've got the idea in April that from a seasonal perspective certainly the S&P can grind higher from current levels. We've also seen that initial spike in insider buying and then we're now looking at this is the sentiment gauge in terms of absolute bullishness and absolute bearishness in the market and we can again see peaks in this indicator certainly coincide broadly with some bottoming action in the markets. So we've eclipsed or we're trading up into this prior peak here and we've seen an initial recovery. So we've got some sentiment in terms of absolute bullishness, absolute bearishness we've got insider buying and we've got a bit of seasonal support suggesting that we might see some higher price in the S&P. Now as with everything I do within the markets I'm always trying to think of both sides of the trade. So I come to the markets from a point of balance whereby I'm cognisant of both sides of the equation. And so what I want to just cover off with you quickly now is some of the less bullish scenarios. This is the VIX, the VIX is obviously the fear index which is currently involved in markets should certainly be aware of what the VIX is and what its purpose is. But again, if we think about that low in 08 that initial low before we undercut it into 09 then the VIX is currently currently tracking that type of model so the VIX will peak before we see a trough. So that means that although we could see a recovery this month maybe we could head into May and then we could see some more liquid more selling. So that's the VIX is something we should certainly be tracking even trading in these markets and again you can see it more clearly here that we've got the initial shot, the initial panic low we got that pull back, we got that once the stimulus comes into the market and the governments suggest they're going to do everything they can to keep this show going then we likely see a recovery which we're currently seeing in markets before we get that next panic spike and we ultimately undercut our current low and further support to this would be the idea that bear markets, which obviously we're currently currently potentially in experience pretty dramatic rallies before they take the next leg demo so currently if we work on this scale this will put us into that 08 low so if we think again going back to that original insider buying so here's that 08 low before we make the final low in 09 okay so this would suggest that we're currently consolidating and the consolidation can run you can see here it's 46 days so if we work on a plus or minus scale so we could see that this April could be could potentially give us some upside this is some research from Goldman Sachs which basically depicts the same thing that we had this this low and then we saw a correction to the upside before rolling over to make the final low in March of 09 okay now again this is a this is replicating again from Goldman Sachs this is showing the performance of the S&P after we've seen 20% declines this is going back to 1980 again this is broadly where we are now so again we could if we track the models apart from here being 1987 where we quickly roll back over you can see that we can have a period of corrective upside here certainly over the coming four or five weeks now this is another overlay this is from Jeff Dunlach of Double Line Capital one of the legends of the hedge fund industry and this again is showing the potential for a correction to develop before we trade back down and this is tracking some of the this is the 1929 if we're in a 1929 situation then the correction we see here could be a correction that is terminal and we certainly trade a hell of a lot lower at this stage and again what we want to do as traders we don't get too far ahead of ourselves we'll take it day by day month by month but we want to be cognizant because forewarned is forearms so we want to be cognizant of the themes and the potential dynamics in the market but certainly at the moment if we're tracking against against the if for example that this coronavirus situation is going to become far more serious then the overlay for 1929 which is the last depression we actually saw would suggest that we can rally here but ultimately we will then take out the lows and trade meaningfully are we in a 1929 scenario we don't know and certainly what's important is that again it's this idea of history rhyming not necessarily repeating so if we start to see a deluge of one second round data coming through or two maybe the U.S. or obviously a big second wave in China that suggests that we're going to see a meaningful uptick in cases in China that type of information input will certainly allow markets and allow market participants so again on your radar in terms of your dashboard when you're looking at the markets these are things you need to be thinking about in terms of giving you a perspective on the broader risk sentiments in the market and then once you know what risk sentiment is doing then that can feed into your effects trades and for me my go to is obviously the dollar index now this is the dollar index going back to 1975 and you can see this is an overlay of the cycles within the dollar and equally the major market events that coincide with the moves in the dollar so at the moment there is the potential that we are about to put in a significant dollar peak and for those who are involved in last week's session I'm going to go back to the charts that I covered with respect to the weekly charts and we'll see where we are in terms of how that potential dollar peak is setting up but you can certainly see there on this chart that we are there is a high degree of cyclicality within the dollar index and there is also this idea of crisis followed by a flooding of liquidity from the Federal Reserve or central banks that often then precedes that dollar decline and this is coming bringing us right up to date with respect to the funding that we've seen from the Fed this is the huge fiscal stimulus that is coming into the markets by way of of the well initially the stimulus package $2 trillion stimulus package and now here that Trump is talking about or muting the idea of an additional $2 trillion so we're now talking about $4 trillion of dollars coming into the market in an infrastructure plan so I mean the potential here is that the US dollar momentum that we've seen and there's obviously a lead and a lag element with respect to this but there is the potential that as this funding just escalates beyond any prior levels that we are more likely than not to see at a minimum a meaningful correction in the dollar index okay obviously that was a bit of a data dump there with respect to sentiments and additional off the chart information that we want to be plugged into does anyone have any questions with respect to any of those slides before I move on to the charts and no in the chat box if it's all clear just so I can see we're all alive and listening okay good stuff let's start with the charts so let's go back to the dollar index this is the weekly chart that we looked at last week and we are seeing as we discussed last week I talked about the idea that after this type of move this was one of the biggest declines on a weekly scale in the dollar index over the past 10 years and I anticipated that we would likely see some consolidation what this consolidation allows to occur potentially we obviously don't know but potentially it builds fuel in the market for the next if we can break these levels by the time we go through these levels there will be sufficient stops under these levels to take us down to the next area of support so we're seeing consolidation tomorrow we get non-farm payrolls data in the US now if that comes out we're expecting obviously a dire reading if the reading is even worse than the most dire expectations that could fuel this break in the dollar index so we want to really important to see where we close on this dollar tomorrow if we close back towards the lows on the weekly charts and this set up in terms of the potential for meaningful dollar weakness that will be underway so really want to pay attention to where we close even if we close back towards the half way point let me just blow this up let's just bring in the Fib tool here even if we close towards the half way point next week we could see a bearer scandal that engulfs this prior week and takes out the lows so it's really important from a big picture that you pay attention to these weekly charts and certainly you always want to be checking in and Sunday evening before you start trading we could see where the weekly close was on Friday because that information is certainly useful for trying to or attempting to capture some of the bigger swings in the market so that's the dollar index let's check in with the euro obviously 60% of the dollar index is the euro that we can expect it to be a corollary picture to the dollar so pulling back again we're trading here on the euro into the 50% retracement area now so we'll see again where we close tomorrow if buyers start stepping here and we close towards the highs tomorrow then this idea of the dollar index rolling over and we're seeing some strength in the euro and certainly it's getting technical support again we could close at the 50% or maybe a bit lower and then next week see the bullish reversal and you know this the pattern is still valid for me really let's take out the 78.6% retracement of this reversal candle and I'm still obviously I'd be trading from a transactional perspective trading signals but from a structural perspective this could be potentially a major move from the euro in line with that dollar index the chart that is really of interest to me at the moment is sterling set up is very clean we tested 35 years low 35 year lows, big bullish reversal on the weekly and we have been taking out the 38.2% retracement and we look like we're going to put in again we have to see where we close tomorrow but there's a potential here for an inside pin bar and if we then into Monday Sunday night Monday take that level out then there's certainly scope for this sterling dollar to take off those are the key weekly charts that I'm tracking at the moment we obviously have similar set ups across the board some of them aren't as clean as the ones that we've got in the three majors there obviously if we can get a close back towards the highs here on the week again similar pattern bullish inside pin bar suggested that we can see further correct of upside and again with this Aussie and certainly the Kiwi as well when I think in terms of risk sentiment so if the S&P for example is going to put in a similar pattern at the moment it's not looking so not looking so bright but if we close on the week back towards the highs here and then we've got a three candle stick reversal pattern potentially developing in the S&P so then we'd be looking towards this 2800 area and that would probably take with it the Aussie and the Kiwi which are really the risk pairs in terms of the higher correlation with risk on risk off but to a high degree at the moment what we're all trading is the S&P because that's been driven by the dollar dynamic so in periods where we're seeing weakness in the S&P we're seeing strength in the dollar and when periods we're seeing strength in the S&P we're seeing weakness in the dollar so this is why I say to all the guys I'm working with you've really got to be cognizant of where the S&P is and what levels are important and to that end let's check in with the main intraday charts that I track so here's the dollar index what I'm looking for is this next leg to run higher here we may not see it but that would be an ideal corrected pattern to develop test up into this 100 50, 160 area various reversal patterns would be a set up on the short side so continuing to watch this move in the dollar and gold we pulled that we've got a symmetry swing move here in gold so if we overlay that last corrective with this one you'd still see another leg lower here but ultimately what I'm looking for is another leg to the upside to basically complete this initial cycle and then we'll see how the price action plays out in gold euro inverse to the dollar so I'm looking for a test now this one own 816 area which will complete a potentially pretty clean corrective cycle and if the buyer step in here bullish reversal patterns that'll be an opportunity to do something on the long side for the next leg to the upside again this 78.6% and then I think we're going back to those we could be breaking and that would see the dollar taking another leg to the upside what you want to bear in mind with this just quickly going back to this chart is that there is a lag between this these funding run-ups and the actual peak in the dollar so we still could see another leg of dollar upside but still this funding this huge funding issue is going to come to bear on dollar at some point okay so that's something to be cognizant of but the technical setup looks pretty clean at the moment sterling we're in a bullish consolidation here I think we're probably going to see a push to the upside which is going to we're going to see that breakout in the in a weakened chart but then ultimately I don't need to chase it here because we will there will be a corrected phase to unwind some of the bullishness on the daily chart we'll take a look at that in a minute so I don't need to chase this break but certainly once we do break then I've got confirmation of the bullish impulse setup and then I'm looking to get into the first correction versus this impulse wave so I don't need to chase the market here because you know more often than not what we see is we see a pop to the upside versus certainly once we see this type of consolidation and that just a bull trap of sorts and then we get the pullback and that pullback gives you that better entry opportunity so again that comes down to having a plan in place trading the patients and discipline then the market come to you having your levels defined having your entry defined how you're going to execute your trade and pull the trigger with the reverse risk management so again look like we're getting a potential bottom here to get that pullback into the 10950 area which again bearish reversal patterns there would give a sell signal Aussie looks like we should see now versus this current high at a minimum what I'd expect from the Aussie here is we'd see that leg and then this leg down into the support which is symmetry swing with this decline and then the potential for another leg higher here before again we'd see a more meaningful correction so there is opportunity on both the short and the long side in the Aussie at this stage and again these are the first moves off the lows when we look at the S&P I'll be able to give you a better context for that but even if once you've got these panic lows in place you can certainly trade both sides of the mark and what you can do there is when you get an entry or a signal that aligns with some of this bigger picture stuff in terms of the weekly charts then you can look for those trades to try and juice them for more upsides. The loony we correct it into the symmetry swing point and we're holding that at the moment but even here what we can see is if we do hold we've got the potential for a an ABCD pattern here which will simply bring us back into these highs so double correction almost then we can still see this move to the downside to finish this initial cycle Swissie if we're going to hold this level of support now then again with the Swissie we can see this deeper the quality move back into this area which would set up another opportunity on the short side of the Swissie Kiwi looking for this to grind a bit lower here Kiwi's been supported at the moment with cross flows because it's been held up on the on the Aussie Kiwi chart with weakness in that chart for the Aussie so this might grind around here but ultimately I'd be looking for a symmetry swing move and then potentially another leg to the upside and this is the chart I'm watching most carefully at the moment this is the S&P 500 had great opportunities in this on the long side over the last week and once again I'm looking to reload on the long side so I think we likely see today we can see another leg of correction here and then get get a test down into this is what I'm really looking for this test of this 20 through 70 area and again looking for bullish reversal patterns on the 4 hour of the daily chart to get in on the long side and then we could see this next leg of upside and again so this would broadly coincide with that idea that we could see some strength here in April before we take another leg down into May so this is a pattern I'm watching and certainly this is going to be a very key area if we see it this 2800 2780 area is really going to define the next phase in these markets because if we come into big offers in this area that's going to set up the move to retest these lows to my mind crude see a bit of a bouncing crude obviously Trump came out overnight saying that he perceives that as the potential for some type of reconciliation in the Saudi Russia issue but the technical pattern still suggests to me at this stage whilst we trade below 25 that we'll see another new low potentially down to 15 for another spike high to wrong for the market for ultimately this is the this is the area I'm really focused on in terms of crude a test of the 10 to 12 dollar area I think would set up a significant buying opportunity because as I mentioned previously that 10 to 12 dollar area is where the Saudis start to run into trouble that's their break even point on producing a barrel of oil now there is talking to market it's even lower eight dollars but most participants say that 10 to 12 dollar area it starts to become painful for the Saudis so we'll watch that that area closely so finally just want to look at some of the setups I'm watching at the moment the Singapore dollar I've been trading I've had two great runs in this over the past few weeks got another set up here using the core swing strategy we've got a bullish reversal capital into the 50% of the tradesman at the monthly pivot and we've got some bullish divergence developing in the RSI stochastic so what I'm looking for now is a break of the overnight highs 143 95 area stop the lows and then I'm going to trade this up into certainly look for a retest of the price from highs and maybe something more meaningful so that's one that I'm watching I've got the Aussie again looking to play a correction here in the Aussie I'm looking for a breach of the overnight lows to get in on the short side and again once I'm in this trade the immediate area that I'm going to be looking at just bring in the tracing tool first area of interest once I if I can get this trade going is going to be the 50% retracement and I'll be watching how price responds there because that could again thinking in terms of these these corrected patterns that I'm talking about that could be where we get our our B points or our C point and that could take us higher so setup is valid on the short side for certainly a correction from this from this reaction low but then be managing the position carefully similar story in the Aussie yen same pattern here that I'm tracking and most of these are posted on trading view for those who want to follow along we're also getting the same setup here in the Aussie Kiwi see I've highlighted the levels I'm I'm watching and those really are the key trades that I'm looking at as we as we head into the next couple of days okay are there any questions guys or would anyone like to take a look at the chart that I haven't covered in the the presentation here you can just type the chart into the into the chat box if you want to type it in Christopher and I'll come up go for our okay I use this VWAP this long it's on VWAP so this is this is giving you basically the weekly read so the weekly read is bullish but if we go to this chart here and this is what this is taking so the weekly and the monthly are both bullish and we're correcting at the moment and if you think about the idea and Christopher with respect to this this dollar crisis that we could see then you know gold's pricing dollars and more often than not certainly in this recent phase where we saw forced liquidation we saw gold and the dollar moving in tandem and that was because people were having to sell out of their gold positions to get dollars to fund their losses in their stock portfolio so that's a common phenomenon that occurred and if you go back to 0809 let's change this to the weekly so 0809 we saw a similar thing gold declined, bottomed and then went on a tear as the dollar weakened so I mean you know certainly the trends on the higher time frames are bullish and then what you're looking for is a decent entry point on the daily or your interest rate charts swissie so at this stage I've been looking for another leg higher in the swissie similar to the idea in the dollar so I'm looking for these corrections to play out before looking at no problem Christopher before looking at reselling dollars so you can see the theme here is the potential for another lower here before we get into the decision point euro sterling let's take a look at that so we've got the euro sterling this is if we use that as our A, B, C so we're through the equality swing so what this suggests to me is that we're going to grind probably a bit lower here so at some point what we're going to see is this move and then we're likely to see this leg so the target zone for me now would be down into this zone here and which is the 161 extension obviously of the of that initial correction and you can see also we have the 78.6% of the traceman and we have some prior highs here from structural perspective so let's just take it out a leg or two here and bring this in so I mean this will be the support area to focus on if you're looking to do something in the euro sterling any other questions guys okay thank you very much for your time and I hope this stuff helps and I'll catch you all sometime next week, thanks a lot guys