 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The morning market kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good morning, everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN Thursday morning, just after 9 a.m. Eastern time. We got 24 minutes to go until the opening bell. We got some PPI prices this morning. We got some jobless claims this morning, markets a little bit in positive territory. S&P's up by 15 points right now. You see the volatility at 8.30. These are five-minute bars. Zoom in on the action. You spike to 41.38. You spike to about 41.19. We're pushing the upper boundary of that price action. 41.34. You're positive by about 4.10 percent in the S&P's. Remember, we get retail sales tomorrow. We get bank earnings kicking things off tomorrow. Quite a CPI number in terms of the action in the market yesterday. It's going to be interesting to see where we go today after quite the sell-off yesterday throughout the entire day almost. We got some POPs, man, but negative action after quite the POP and quite the decent CPI numbers. We got some decent PPI numbers to follow this morning. We got jobless claims, but maybe that's the rotation, folks. Maybe this is the rotation in terms of seeing where the numbers are going to start waning on inflation. The market is going to say, okay, that's great, but you saw it yesterday, man, where it said that's great. But what if this is the turn and the turn comes quickly sometimes, man, there might be a lag? Boy, but when it takes over, it can take over quickly and we'll get into some of those PPI numbers in particular later in the program because some soft numbers to put it lightly. We have the Dow right now, up 79 points. That's a two-tenth percent positive in the Dow. You get the Nasdaq almost six-tenths percent. We get the Russell six-tenths percent in the positive as well. How about Bitcoin catching a bid again, $30,545. You have Ethereum. Look at that high. I saw something out there on Ethereum. You got a split going on or something like that. I had a headline up here earlier. What do we got going on? I'll find the headline. But Ethereum trading higher. Some split, maybe somebody has it in the den. There is some fundamental news on that. 2021, quite a run for Ethereum, up almost 6% right now. Crude, hanging right near $83, $82.98, goal contract. Check it out. We got a weak dollar this morning, man, 2056. That goal contract, you talk about a pop of $32. We just hit 2060. I'll jump to the dollar in a moment. Notes and bonds, the 10-year, up about 8 ticks, almost to the spike high we got yesterday. What did we do yesterday? We gave it all up. It would be interesting if we gave it all up today in terms of the 10-year. How about the 30-year yesterday? The 30-year yesterday hit $133.15 and traded down two full points. Two full points from that spike to $131.15. What are we doing? We're inching towards $133, yet again on the 30, a remarkable action on notes and bonds. We jump over to the VIX. All things considered, not that bad, 1855 in the VIX. We had some real sell-offs in the S&P yesterday, and you saw some volatility on the VIX, but nothing too concrete. As we went from about 1860 to 1940, we're back to about 1860 this morning on the volatility index. We jump over to that dollar index because, boy, currencies. We got some action in currencies, man, $10103 on the dollar index. That's a full point. Even more so from where you were yesterday, let alone you're talking about almost three full points from where you were on Monday. You talk about action, man. Check out the daily, right? The lows back in February, 182. We're pushing those lows right now in the dollar index, and when you look at some of the biggest components, yeah, the euro. New recent highs, man, $110, remember we were talking about 95, $110, quite a rise. Everything getting more expensive in Europe if you're trading dollars for your euros over there. Let's back it up even a little further. Yeah, you're all the way back to where we were over a year ago in the euro. Absolutely remarkable. The run we're getting in currencies is we got dollar weakness across the board. We got markets in positive territory, and let's jump into some of the economic data this morning. Jobless claims, $239,000 led by a jump in California. Continuing claims actually down. I don't know if that's how things are supposed to go. Initial unemployment claims rising $11,000 to $239,000. I was looking for about $235,000, so pretty close to in line. Continuing claims, now those are one week delayed, falling to $1.81 million for the week ended April 1st. Maybe there's a little bit of lag, maybe one week, maybe the difference on an adjusted basis. Claims jumped by more than $27,234,577. California accounted for more than a third of the increase, yeah, and it can be choppy. The four week moving average for $240,000. It's nothing too concrete in terms of in a healthy economy. You churn in something like $200,000 just in terms of the churn of people changing jobs as part of a healthy economy. We're just above that number. We had been below $200,000 for a while, and we'll see where we go from there. But nonetheless, we got $240,000, and we got some PPI numbers we're going to get into later in the program, because those are some decent numbers as well. But what we are dealing with, folks, is quite the sell-off yesterday, okay, and you had some decent CPI numbers to put it lightly. I'm just going to put this in context here. Now I talked about the VIX, right? The VIX never got above $18,000 or $19,000. We had two different sell-offs, folks, to the tune of like almost 40 or 50 points yesterday, intraday. The first one, pre-market, okay, but you came into the opening bell, still at $41.60, and you trade down almost $41.20. You went right back up to $41.53, and what did you do? You trade down another 40 points, A to B, C to D, basically intraday in the S&Ps after a pretty decent CPI number. So fundamentally, right, your brain said to myself, so what does this mean? Well, if it was all about inflation and the Fed, that market would have loved that spike and would have stayed up there. But at some point, okay, the Fed cooling the economy is going to matter when we're talking about earnings, when we're talking about profits, when we're talking about margins. And we still have some pretty lofty numbers. When you talk about the numbers that we're dealing with in inflation, core number was up last month, core number was up 5.6% in March versus 5.5 in February. We've become so used to 8%, 9%, 6%, 7%, 5%. Now we're seeing headline numbers that are on the way down, we're seeing month over month numbers that would indicate that maybe we're out of the woodwork, and then you see a core number going up from February to March from 5.5 to 5.6. To get to 2, there's going to be a lot of work to be done. That work might start coming, folks, though, in a big way. In terms of the economy getting squashed, okay, in terms of the impact being felt. Now I talked about this one on Monday, I think. One about the money supply, right? This is M2 money supply, and I'll pull up M2 versus M3 definition, money supply. Why not, I'll pull it up as we speak. Let me get it right. But folks, money supply matters, okay? And you can't tell me that this spike had nothing to do with the generational inflation that we haven't felt in my lifetime, okay? But you can't tell me that on the flip side it's not going to matter as well. There's just no possible way that's going to be the scenario in my opinion, okay? Now you tie that into what's going on, right? So M2 is the Federal Reserve's estimate of total money supply, including all of the cash people have on hand, plus all the money deposited in checking accounts, saving accounts, and other short-term saving vehicles such as CDs, where time and account balances and time deposits above $100,000 are omitted from M2. So it's short-term cash cycling around in the economy. We're going to talk to our man, Kevin Hanks. We'll have a little bit more discussion about this after we talk to our man, Kevin. We're coming back, folks. We'll talk a little bit of fast market from Kevin Hanks. Stay tuned. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them, using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com, TFNN Educating Investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything, from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from Veteran Day Trader Larry Pesavento on stocks you need to pay attention to, and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years' experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos, and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 Newsletter today, TFNN.com, Educating Investors. Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago, and the student has now become the master. Steve won the prestigious Timer of the Year award in 2018, and barely missed that mark again in 2019, finishing at number two for the year, an amazing accomplishment. Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn, and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his Mastering Probability Newsletter, Steve's award-winning newsletter, Mastering Probability, is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon. Sign up for Steve's Market Newsletter, Mastering Probability, and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars absolutely free. At TFNN, all our newsletters come with a 30-day money-back guarantee, so you have absolutely nothing to worry about. Visit TFNN.com and try Mastering Probability, 30 Days, risk-free today, TFNN, Educating Investors. TFNN has launched the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years, with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. The Tiger's Den, available to all Tigers and Tigresses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Let's visit the front page of TFNN.com. Folks, we have markets in positive territory. S&P is up about 11 points. Let's jump over to our man, Kevin Hanks. Every trading day, folks, 12 noon Eastern Time, the TD Ameritrade Network fast market right here on Tiger TV. Your host, Kevin Hanks, Tom White, the team at TD Ameritrade Network, folks, they got great guests. They walk you through hypothetical trade setups, and I know I say it. We talked to Kevin Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. If you ever want to learn about options, folks, check out the program. There's no better way than going through trade setups that they go through, talking about trade management, rolling, whatever it be. Kevin Hanks, when I talked to you yesterday morning, man, we had markets in rosy territory by the end of the day. We gave up about 1 percent today. We got some more PPI numbers. What do you think of the action, man? Corey, Tommy, yeah, unfortunately, today's numbers, even though the market is higher right now, today's numbers show a lot of the same underlying data that yesterday's numbers showing. What do I mean by that? Well, the month-over-month numbers, the year-over-year, are pretty impressive in terms of PPI month-over-month, down a half percent, year-over-year, from 4.6 to 2.7 percent. That's a big move in year-over-year PPI. Excluded Energy, down a 10th, year-over-year, Excluded Energy, 4.4 to 3.4, Excluded Energy and trade services, up a tenth of a percent from 4.4 to 3.6. Now, here's the problem, Tommy. If you look at final demand goods down 1 percent, that is, again, like yesterday, dominated by energy. Final demand energy down 6.4 percent. If you look final demand less food and energy, up 0.3. Final demand foods, up 0.6. So if you think about that, therein lies the problem, Tommy. There's numbers. These big reductions in the producer price index are dominated by energy that possibly since this number came out, crude oil has moved from $70 to now $83, Tommy. So there could be some storm clouds on the horizon in terms of the fight against inflation. And, folks, you heard storm clouds yesterday, and you saw what could happen in the market, and it is pretty, that year-over-year number, right, Kevin? And the market, yeah, we get a little bit of a lift, but there used to be a time when, man, you get year-over-year numbers maybe like that if they indicated a real transition because that's the one that I said, my goodness, how does that even happen, right? Well, you just explained it, man. We got some real influences in there. Energy is a big one. It's been a one-way trip for like a year almost to down prices, lower prices, and now we got some rising prices. Right. We'll see how we go from there, man. With that, Kevin, we've been talking about it. We got some companies with their numbers, but the banks kick it off tomorrow. We got some retail sales coming out tomorrow as well, and then, boom, we go right into the season. What are you guys talking about on Fast Market coming up at 12 today, man? Like Folio will do a little different take. They don't cover the financials very much, so they're going to cover Shopify in their section, a really good competitor to things like Amazon and eBay and these online shoppers. But then, in the first and third segments, we're going to talk, Jay P. Morgan. We're going to talk Citigroup, and we'll go through their expectations for earnings tomorrow morning. So yeah, we finally made it, Tommy. The chasm between earnings season is finally over, and we have some earnings to look at. Jay P. Morgan and Citigroup, like Folio talking about Shopify. And folks, Shopify, so TFNN, we use Shopify as our platform, great platform. Very user-friendly. It allows us to do a lot. I got the chart up here, Kevin, going back five years in the Thinkorswim platform, from $11 to $176 back to $45. What do you think of Shopify taking a look at this chart, man? Like many growth stocks, really taking it on the chin. But as you said, a decent company, and I tell you folks, it's not going away as in we use it. It's an outstanding platform. I know many people do. But boy, quite a pullback with some of those equities, Kevin. And you're off of a low of, boy, I got to pull it up right here, $23. Remarkable. Right. It got below $30 at one point. 23. I got another Thinkorswim. Go ahead, please. This is a company that, unfortunately, fell into that category that got punished, which is growth. Right? They're a young company. They're growing like a weed, but until what got rewarded in these markets is profitable companies and companies showing cash flow, and Shopify didn't necessarily have that at the time. Now, that doesn't mean this company doesn't have a promising future. That's still uncertain. Boy, they are growing at an incredible pace, and the overall reaction from customers is extremely positive. Yeah, and you're hearing it from a customer, man. You know, in the same way. So it's pretty cool. We use it. I know our customers, you know, our customers down the line using that platform therein through TFNN.com. It is remarkable, Kevin, how so many of these companies, back to almost prior to the pandemic, when you look to be perfectly positioned, online growth, Zoom comes to mind as well, among many others, not to single them out, but quite the run. And like Folio, you'll have to ask them, Kevin. They might not study it, but I would love to know the consumer sentiments around some of those big banks with everything looming out there. I say it in jest, but it is pretty interesting. We come into bank earnings tomorrow, man. We look forward to the program, Kevin. I appreciate the time on a busy morning, as always. And we don't talk to you till Tuesday, so it's going to be exciting where we'll be on Tuesday, man. Have a great one. Have a great weekend, Kevin. We'll be watching at 12, man. You too, Tommy. Thanks so much. Folks, tune in every trading day, 12 o'clock. We are coming into earning season right now. It's the best time to check out the program. And I always say, too, if you don't want to actively trade options, there's a tremendous amount of information that you can learn from understanding how they trade and applying that information to whatever it is, equities, okay, and just the market beyond, because understanding risk reward, premiums, delta, theta, all of those, and how they're priced into an option, which leads to basically how the market is pricing expected moves for the underlying equities. It's a tremendous amount of information. And that's why I love talking to Kevin three times a week, man. We are privileged to have his time, I tell you, folks, because that's a half hour right there at a time when, let me tell you, doing this program 15 minutes before the market opened as a trader, and I know Kevin is still a trader, okay. Yeah, it's valuable time, and he gives it to us every day, and I know they're a sponsor, folks, but I tell my friends, I tell my family, check out the program. You can learn a tremendous amount. Kevin, the experience he's has, Tom over there, they got some great guests out there. Randy Frederick, who is at Schwab, he used to do a program at TFNN, right? Just amazing minds over there, so they got a lot of good information, and we're coming into earning season. It doesn't get much better than that, and yeah, quite the chart for Shopify, man. Some of these equities, when I think about them, we all got a lesson of using our heads and not getting lost in the clouds a bit, as in they were growing at a pace that was unsustainable during a once-in-a-lifetime, hopefully, event, okay. And the fact that, do you remember the discussions taking place saying, geez, is all of this growth pulled forward, and now it's going to be a soft period? Of course it was. Hindsight 2020, okay. But I think now that we have the hindsight, okay, you could have made a reasonable argument, as many did, that it was going to be very difficult for any of these companies, Amazon and the likes, okay. Go through it. Whatever it is. You can almost pick any growth stock and say, especially geared online, that they just weren't going to be able to sustain that type of growth. Now, I mentioned Zoom. They're just kind of the poster boy of it, because they went up from, what, $570 to $600, and you actually got down to $63 again. Now, here's what's remarkable. They actually went back to prior to the pandemic. So they mismanaged things so spectacularly, the likes of Peloton. Peloton's probably the ultimate poster boy of it, right? That they actually did themselves greater harm. And that's how quickly you can blow that opportunity, which is remarkable. But, you know, hey, you live, you learn. This is why stops are important. It's why defined risk trading options is an attractive quality quantity to have on your side in the trade. And yeah, we're going to be back for the open. Stay tuned, folks. We'll be back in three minutes. Building wealth trading in the stock market seems impossible to most people. They think it's too volatile and risky. Most people aren't going to take the time to educate themselves on how to do it right. But you're not most people, are you? At TFNN, you'll get the guidance you need to refine your strategies and techniques to invest like a pro. Because you'll be a pro. All TFNN subscriptions, books, software, and courses are available at tfnn.com. And I'm even going to tell you how to get them for less. Use TFNN's Tiger Dollars and you'll get up to a 20% bonus on your purchase. And once you apply them to your account, Tiger Dollars are automatically used for all future or recurring charges. Tiger Dollars also never expire, are fully transferable, and are a great way to add savings to your newsletters or services. Become the investor you were born to be at TFNN.com. TFNN Educating Investors. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger Zen. Hosted at Discord, TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years, with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. And now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den, available to all tigers and tigers for just $1 for the year. There's no cash or added costs when you join our community of traders. In the Tiger's Den, you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts, while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs. Join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas, interact with other tigers and tigers as they share trading ideas, news analysis, and discuss the market action all trading day, even at night and on the weekends. The Tiger's Den at Discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well, so it's always at your reach. To sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders, just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis, and it's not just dry tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV. Live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN Educating Investors. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. We've got markets open. You open up 10 points in the S&P, NASDAQ 100, up by about 70. You get the Dow up by 38. You get the Russell up by about six. Let's see how the banks are doing just ahead of their numbers tomorrow. We're dropping right now. There's so many influences in this market right now in terms of where we're going. Let's jump in and see how the dollar, because what's going on? You have currency action. You have yield action. Yeah. You got the dollar continuing to weaken right now. You're under 101. A lot of that being driven by the euro. You're spiking up the highs that we haven't seen in the better part of a year in the euro above 110.50 right now in the euro. And that, of course, tied to the action in the yields, but we've had a little bit of a reprieve actually in the last few minutes in terms of up to 116.02, the 10-year now back to 115.30. And if we check that out, that's talking about a yield of about 3.39%, 3.39% the yield on the 10-year. All right. So we were talking a little bit of money supply, right? Now this is M2, year over year. So what you have is, this is econ, okay? You got, or finance, what is it, econ, right? I think it's econ. What would M, when did we learn? Maybe some of that's got to go. I think it's econ, right? M1 is basic money, okay? So M1 is coins and currency and circulation, checkable deposits and traveler's checks, money and banking. Yeah, I was learning about this in high school though, I think. So I think that was, we didn't have money and banking one-on-one this college. I think we learned it in econ to start things off. Finance was somewhere in there. Maybe I'm getting lost. M1, coins and currency and circulation, checkable deposits, traveler's checks, straight out cash, M1, okay? Then you go to M2. Let's see, let me get this right. Okay, perfect. Now this even slide over so you can check out as M2, which is the chart that we're looking at, okay? It's the Federal Reserve's estimate of total money supply, including M1, okay, which is the cash people have on hand, plus money and checking accounts, saving accounts, other short-term vehicles such as CDs, that's where you get away from M1, okay, retirement account balances and CDs or time deposits above 100,000 are omitted. So the way you can read that, right, is it's a measure of the money supply that includes cash checking deposits, other types of deposits that are readily convertible to cash, such as CDs. Now the reason why they have that 100,000 in there, right, is because this is really cash circulating. It's not supposed to be big money that's not going to be a player in the economy for cash circulating and when you get above that, it's probably not going to be cash, a CD or investments that you are converting to have the cash being cycled in the economy, okay? Now then you have M3 and M3 includes all the above as M1, M2 includes M1, right, M3 includes M1 and M2, they all expand as you get higher in the M123, M3 would include all of the prior plus large institutional cash deposits. So that's not what's in M2, okay, now gold is not counted in any of them, gold is no longer used as a common currency, it's interesting in light of the action we're getting in gold right now, right? So taking a look at this chart folks, we'll look at it M2, okay, and again when we're talking about M2, we're talking about cash deposits, CDs under a hundred grand, it's a very reasonable description of the money circulating around in the economy. I'd love for anybody to give me a call to discuss this man because I think it's a big number, some of the reactions have been varying, 877-927-6648 and please folks, you may call on anything, my dad had a great call, I wish I remember the caller yesterday on his program after he talked to Tim Ord and the caller was asking, he was looking at different ETFs, one of those ETFs was basically a market wide ETF for small and mid cap stocks, I forget what it was, but it was every stock outside of the S&P 500 or even if you look at stocks like the Russell, right, and then the argument was, look at that, we got it, we got Bob and Largo, let's jump into it, Bob good morning man, we got him, come on, no, he must have hung up that quick, maybe he'll call back. This one might get some callers folks because look for outliers in the market, okay, look for outliers in the market when you see that type of action, okay, the caller was Bob and Largo yesterday, thank you, okay, sorry, I jumped up quick, thank you Al, and so the question they were asking was, the fund he was looking at was down 33% from the highs, S&Ps were only down 14% from the highs, say well, if the market accelerates back to the highs, shouldn't I be in maybe the ETF that has more room up to the upside, it's a great question, I literally thought this is a great question man, I'm sure a ton of people think like this and yes, it can be a great way to think, but it's totally dependent on what's going to drive the market, right, and what I'll say is that nothing is guaranteed to that essence, I mean we saw how the NASDAQ 100, how long did the NASDAQ 100 or NASDAQ take to get back all of its losses from, let's pull it up, what's going to be the best way, the Q's, are the Q's going to get me all the way back, no probably not right, what's going to be the best way, yeah, the Q's almost get me back, so the Q's from 2000 took you to 2015 to get to the highs, okay, the spy, yeah pretty much the same, pretty interesting, right, I was going to say it took a lot longer, I mean look at the spies man, spies, 150 in 2000, you actually got back there in 2013, so a little sooner, I would be careful with that if Bob happens to be listening anyway, I'd be careful with that one, my dad was talking about it, he just doesn't like the Russell's in particular, yeah I mean listen, Apple is turning into the GE, you know, in terms of the hole they have on everything and I would be very wary and look at Apple, look at Apple, up 1.5% today, I mean look at this for a second right, Apple today alone has added $40 billion in market cap and the market can barely catch a bit right now, I mean look where we are compared to do you remember on Monday that we had Apple losing 40% of computer sales far worse than even the industry and we're just back down a couple bucks from where we were on Friday, meanwhile we've had a market sell off to some degree in both directions, remarkable action, I would be very careful about not investing in the biggest most profitable best companies in the world, that's probably the best way to put it, I mean even at some of these prices folks retirement wise, as dabbling a little bit of Amazon this week, dabbling in a little bit of Disney this week, longer term, okay the big companies that have strong successful backtracks, they're where I would want to be in the longer term, now the other side of that is there's nothing wrong with diversification man, we learned that in the pandemic most of all right, nothing wrong with diversification because you could think you're in the best spot in the world and unfortunately you can just get hit by an unforeseen event coming at you, all right but pay attention to that money supply folks please give me a call if you want to talk about it, let me know your opinion because we're going to start to feel it and you may start seeing it creeping in the numbers and if it doesn't make creep quickly, but it's not creeping just yet man, we got inflation and we got continuing jobless claims dropping okay, no matter what we got, so retail sales tomorrow, bank earnings kick it off, it's going to be an interesting one, S&P's holding up relatively well right now, we got a little bit of a sell off there right, put it back for one minute, be sure it did, a little bit of a sell off at 9.35, we get back 41.30 in the S&P's, that's our man Basel Chapman does, look at that NASDAQ 100 though, yeah growth stocks, we got lower yields, we got a weaker dollar, we got the NASDAQ 100 up by almost 1%, stay tuned folks, be right back, you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball, after all it's impossible to predict the future right, like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts, you might find that it's not so impossible after all, for daily market overviews that give you direction on a key indices, selective stocks and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com the opening call newsletter is written by Basel Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave, the Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices, get the opening call newsletter by Basel Chapman and your inbox every day, first time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee, if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up, tfnn.com, educating investors are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio Tom O'Brien is here to help, Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years, a frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC, Tom O'Brien founded tfnn over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you Tom's daily market newsletter, Market Insights, is published every morning when the markets open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed these newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio get Tom O'Brien's newsletter Market Insights today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money back guarantee at tfnn.com tfnn educating investors build the S&P 500 continue to climb for bold trades on us large cap stocks in either direction trade SPXL, SPUU or SPXS directions daily S&P 500 bull and bear leveraged ETFs direction leveraged ETFs an investor should carefully consider a fund's investment objective risks charges and expenses before investing a funds prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a funds prospectus and summary prospectus call 866-476-7523 or visit directioninvestments.com a funds prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor four-side fund services LLC this program is brought to you by Vista Gold traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol vgz back folks we got the S&P up about 11 Dow actually in negative territory right now probably because man a lot of the action with some of these growth stocks right let's check on apple look at this up 1.7 percent right now for apple shares Microsoft's up a half a percent but it just gave up a buck 50 like nothing Google shares accelerate up 1.6 percent look at this run right out of the gate to yeah look at this man this is right out of the gate they're liking they're liking whatever they're seeing man maybe it's the producer prices coming down um whatever it is they're liking let's see how tesla's trading this morning tesla's up about nine tenths percent netflix catching a bit up 3.8 percent my goodness do we have growth stocks we're going to zoom up 1.8 let's see how arc's doing arc up 2.1 percent right now uh the 10 year 1.1605 now these are one minute charts just to illustrate the moves that we're going right now let's put it back to a 15 minute to see some of the run and let's see how the dollar index is trading it's not stopping right now that dollar index man 164 186 excuse me yeah it's calibrated yeah two full points from where you were on monday man that is a move in the dollar index my goodness i'm sure we're going to see gold rocking so even as the dollar's traded a little bit lower we have gold uh parent some of the gains as in we're still up 32 bucks but you're about three to four dollars off of the highs in the gold contract see how the dollar ends trading there you go 130 211 and folks man teddy keg's that we talked to him yesterday we had a great interview you can check it out right on our youtube channel everything we do every interview that we conduct okay it's segmented out put in its own clip on our youtube channel just search tfnn you go to the videos go right down the line on the videos there and teddy has a webinar coming up in six days it's a great time if you haven't tried out his tiger forex report folks please try it out you head on over to the newsletters on the front page tfnn tiger forex report okay it's 97 dollars for the month it comes with a 30 day money back guarantee so you basically got 29 days risk-free you subscribe to the letter you get it for a month you gain access to the 60 minute webinar coming up in six days wednesday april 19th that will be archived you check out the webinar you get the newsletter for a month it's not something in that you're into whatever reason cancel it you get the money back refund and you're able to get knowledge throughout the month no matter what because you will gain knowledge uh and something from this webinar man with everything going on in these markets folks now is an especially important time to understand how currencies are moving things how they're related to yields and how they all tie together um because you're seeing a play out today the market reaction is going to matter when you have this type of movement in the dollar and in yields because boy i mean i can't stay look at the end right 133 25 would drop in out of bed just like that and that drop starts at about eight o'clock in the morning this morning so we'll see as a man basal chapman says the day is young and it's a little bit of a sputter out of the gate that's what i would say man these were some great numbers you don't we're not i mean could you ask for a better head head excuse me headline year over year number i don't think you could i don't think you could ask for a better headline year over year number folks then what we saw in terms of would it go from 4.9 to 2.5 something bonkers like that let's get the headline number to be exact so that you can talk about it 4.9 to 2.7 from february to march okay but it's worth noting the cruise at $83 crude came into the month at $73 from where we are right now and we are above any price action we saw in crude basically since last november man we're above the 82 50 point of resistance on the crude contract next stop on this chart is 92 50 man about $10 higher in crude and that's probably where you're going let's back it up a little bit more yeah 92 50 right in this area that you were chopping around that's the highs of october that's the highs in november and that would make sense that's where you go from there we built some calls on the floor man it's going to be remarkable if we push 110 or 120 man it's getting a little premature for that type of talk at 82 87 and we'll see where we go from there to say the least all right what else do we got pulled up let's see um oh yeah we're talking banks let's talk this one man we got earnings tomorrow this one out from the journal yeah this morning yeah this morning 5 30 in the morning deposit crisis sets up a tough first quarter for all but the biggest banks now the biggest banks might have some issues too okay uh they talk about the collapses what i love looking at right now is the deposits of these banks okay because banks are going to be facing pressure especially on a regional basis for a continued period of time what they talk about in here is that the banks for the big banks okay had their earnings estimates paired but the mid-sized banks it's much more extreme even okay analyst at Morgan Stanley cut their per share earnings estimates for 13 of the largest us banks by a median of 4 percent this year and 15 percent for next year okay for mid-sized banks that was for the big banks for mid-sized banks the outlook is far worse they're looking for 17 percent this year is what they cut their earnings estimates and 27 percent next year they have to get deposits folks they're paying decent cd rates i've been talking about it you can get between four to five percent right now on a decent cd you ladder it out for two years you ladder it out for five years whatever you're comfortable on a time frame basis guaranteed risk-free rate of return four to five percent the banks have to pay it because they need deposits they need the money on their balance sheet it's going to continue like that for some time and there's going to be competition repeatedly for it which is why they're probably going to stay a bit elevated when you look at the deposit change from a week earlier again i'm always like why don't you just like instead of shades two drastically different colors instead of just shades in terms of where we are get off there can we get off there let's not let me get off let me refresh this uh we go come on what happened there we go so the deposits you look at where you were on march first prior to everything imploding you had actually deposits going up but then what happens you get march 8th march 15th they take almost 200 billion dollars from the small banks the big banks get 100 billion but what happened the next week the next week the big banks lost 100 billion while the small banks continued to lose about 50 billion got some of that back next week um yeah all the u.s banks below so about 312 billion in deposits left the banking system between march 1st and march 29th 312 billion dollars i talked about some of the biggest numbers to the biggest banks out there yesterday the 25 u.s banks gained 18 billion over the course of the month all the u.s banks below that level lost 212 billion and it would make sense i was saying at the time who has money in a regional bank right now especially if you're anywhere near 250 000 just go park it at a big boy and know that you're not going to get punished um the banking index they're going to face some pressure man you know you pick a strong bank that's going to navigate this thing yes you got you know some some serious upside that you might be able to make it through because they've all been punished to the downside okay but unless you have a real fundamental understanding of what you're getting into there there's some risk for a prolonged period of stress on those banks facing deposit woes all right folks one more segment stay tuned we'll be right back tfnn has just launched their new trading room the tiger zen hosted at discord tfnn has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours and now they are expanding their reach with the tiger's den available to all tigers and tiger's for just one dollar for the year there's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders in the tiger's den you can look over the shoulders of tom o brian and the other tfnn hosts while they analyze charts during their live tiger tv programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas interact with other tigers and tiger's as they share trading ideas news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day even at night and on the weekends the tiger's den at discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well so it's always at your reach to sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders just visit the front page of tfnn.com you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com the opening call newsletter is written by basil Chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman wave the Chapman wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices get the opening call newsletter by basil Chapman in your inbox every day first time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up tfnn.com educating investors everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence this mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market to stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at tfnn.com when you subscribe you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis after all he's got 45 years experience as a day trader Larry will also provide daily charts videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time first time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today tfnn.com educating investors this segment is brought to you by Think or Swim for more information just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com welcome back folks we got the S&P's up about nine points right now NASDAQ holding on to those gains up 111 with growth stocks straight and higher we'll get the dial right now negative by 22 just take a look at the 10-year you know keep your eye on this one man because there is going to be pressure in terms of the markets have competition man yields four to five percent is real money man that people are making for every hundred thousand bucks you're getting five grand a year over a period of five years you're talking about 25 percent not even compounded put it to 20 percent if you're talking about four right but you don't even have to I think if you ladder up a five-year ladder right now where you're going one two three four five you're you're at like 4.5 percent something like that I'll talk about on my show it's going to be a competition for equities man in a big way and this market it's not a lot of strength man on those numbers huge pop yesterday little pop today we give it up we'll see where we go from there now we're going to finish it up man boy keep the people of Fort Lauderdale and Boca in the east coast in your thoughts folks because they got some rain man Fort Lauderdale airports closed right now I believe to the middle of the day at least it was this morning I don't think I've even seen something like that man two feet of rain yesterday in Fort Lauderdale more than that 26 inches of rain in Fort Lauderdale is what they got they call it a thousand-year storm I hear like those a lot this is a picture let me get this exactly that's a picture of EMS trying to drop people off at Broward General Hospital right completely flooded I mean you just have images that are just absolutely astounding man I mean look at this one the the streets you're talking about 26 inches of rain dropping in a day man so keep those people in your thoughts man because that's going to be a tough one so maybe our man Steve Rose will have some stories for you about how he's doing hopefully he's doing well in terms of just absolutely a remarkable amount of rain over there closing down the airports and 26 inches of rain I said man we got some rain over here but nothing like that man and it's raining again over there right now so there are some woes for for a period of time to say the least folks thanks for starting your trading day off with me we got SMPs basically right where we were when we kicked off the program but guess what remember we were yesterday at this time yeah we got some action man all ahead of retail sales tomorrow and the real beginning of earning season with the banks tomorrow morning we get City Wells Fargo tomorrow as well and uh yeah stay tuned for our man Basil Chapman folks