 Okay, traders, that is 1pm GMT and welcome to this week's live market and trade analysis session with me, Patrick Mullally, before we get going and jump into today's charts. As always, we want to adhere to the risk disclaimer. Most pertinent to today's presentation is the fact that the views, the opinions expressed by me are solely mine. They're not indicative or representative of those held by Tick Mill UK or Tick Mill Europe limited. So, for those of you who are here for the first time, a brief introduction to myself after I graduated from university, I joined a city PLC consulting firm and left with some friends to go on and successfully co-found and exit a consulting startup that was focused on C-suite executive search for technology businesses. So I essentially had a front row seat to the dot-com bubble, witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the market, sometimes quite literally overnight. I decided to explore my curiosity for markets with some capital to play with and some time in my hands. I started day trading the S&P 500 or probably more appropriately at that stage, day gambling. And after some early beginners luck, I racked up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case, my beginners luck ran out and as the market phase began to change, I started averaging down into losing positions and eventually giving back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six-figure hit to my capital. I say this was a gut wrenching and sobering experience is an understatement. So I really had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the markets. So I decided to get serious about trading and I sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with my mentor for a period of 18 months to two years was a time during which I not just my technical game in terms of researching, developing, extensively back and forward testing strategies that crucially suited my personality and all of which were underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach. But most importantly during the period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game and probably most importantly of all, I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal orientated individual really focused purely on financial gains to becoming process orientated. So what does that mean? Well, it means I had stopped focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. However, once you become process orientated and you have a professional trading mindset and you accept and understand the true nature of trading simply being a numbers game in which you're playing the probabilities, you lose that emotional investment, that hellish emotional rollercoaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. So I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or even a small string of trades. My focus is on the next 100 trades because I know if I focus on excellence in execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of time. My multi strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. Since 2013, I've also been managing investor capital through a managed account service, again, delivering annual cost of returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multimillion dollar portfolio. Since 2010, I've mentored hundreds of private traders of all experience levels and complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to read consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and Metro, I'm also resident market expert exclusively providing market and trade analysis to technical clients. I provide an in-depth daily market outlook, breaking down the fundamental and technical drivers for the training day ahead. I also provide technical daily trade setup videos for about two or three markets on a daily basis where I'm actively tracking opportunities. And I share those through the TickMills TradingView account. I'll post a link for that at the end of today's presentation. I also run TickMills Emily strategy group where I host a daily trade plan, giving my pre-market thoughts for the New York cash trading session for the S&P 500. I give my bias for the day ahead in specific action areas where I'm looking to engage the market. These pre-market plans have offered nearly 7,000 points of profit since we launched the group in April of 2021. Second TickMills strategy group I run is for traders who really want to take their trading to the next level. The TickMills Futures Trading Telegram Group is a real-time environment on a daily basis. I share in-depth insights, analysis and trades. I also provide live commentary during the opening hour of the New York cash session where traders can essentially see in real-time how I dissect the markets and identify asymmetric trading opportunities. These sessions act as a platform helping traders to develop a professional consistent approach to navigating the markets and those mental mind games that must be mastered to make it as a profitable market operator. Again, I'll post links for the TickMills for the trading groups, both the Facebook Telegram groups and that Trading View Account link at the end of the session. Okay, let's jump into today's charts. Before we get going, as always, I would ask if you have any questions, just drop them into the chat box. I won't be answering them in real time. I'll come back to them at the end of the session. Also, if you have an instrument you'd like me to take a look at that I don't cover in my presentation, you can also post that into the chat box and I will come back to that again at the end of the session and give you a view on the charts. What I would ask you to do for your benefit really is if you post the time frame as well, just so we can get a better read on what you're looking at and where I see potential opportunities. So coming to the charts, we're starting with the S&P 500 using the e-mini futures contract. I've been trading this from both the short and the long side this week in the TickMills Telegram group yesterday. We got in at 39.64 on the long side, still holding long positions and then we start trailing up some stops as we head into the cash session. Ultimately what I'm looking for today is the potential for a pullback versus 40.60. That's going to be my line in the sand as we head into the cash session. Now I anticipate we could see a pullback into the 40.12 to 40.15 area is a key level of interest for me as we head into the cash trading session today and I'll be like I say updating the group with the pre-market plan on that shortly after today's presentation. But I think at this stage we are heading for a move that should see us test into the 40.100 area is my ultimate expectation given the current market structure. We have this internal trend line support coming in now at 39.80. So today it would really take a break of that 39.80 to suggest that we are just trapped in a range here between 40.50 and 39.00 low. And if we did take out that 38.80 and we retested yesterday's lows I would anticipate there that we would potentially break down and trade lower back into 39.50, 39.40 which is my next area of interest. I have these marked up alerts just for personal ease but 40.60 is the first area of resistance. If we get through there 40.75 is the next area I'm looking at but like I said I'm looking for price to grind out and eventually get into this 40.100 area and then we'll see where we are. Looking at the NASDAQ obviously the NASDAQ has had a decent run. The reason for the weakness that we saw yesterday in the markets was the move that we saw post the Microsoft earnings. What's important with these tech earnings at the moment is really the issue with forward guidance. I think I mentioned this last week that the earnings as usual are likely to come broadly in line with expectations. Obviously EPS and revenue expectations are being lowered because of the current environment we're in but ultimately I'm expecting the earnings to come in broadly in line but what's going to be key to the market response and we saw this on our post the Microsoft earnings is that we're looking for some upbeat guidance. Anything that focuses on the downside with respect to guidance is going to weigh on markets in the near term. So we had that really sharp pullback in terms of the post Microsoft learnings came into support zone 11,600 and by a step back in and if you're trading this intraday it's important you want to have up. I told my guys to pay attention to Microsoft intraday yesterday because any intraday turnaround or strength that was started to come into Microsoft would feed into the rest of the market because it was essentially those Microsoft earnings that dragged the market down. So we saw a turnaround in Microsoft. We saw bids coming into the market into that 3970 3960 on the S&P 500. I alerted the group to the fact that there was a huge amount of contracts being traded in and around that area and that suggested to me that had the potential for a near term base which turned out to be the case. So with respect to the NASDAQ I've been looking for a move. Obviously we have Tesla earnings last night. I'm long Tesla. I've had a really good run in that at the start of this year. Tesla is trading up about 7% in the pre-markets. That's leading to a bit of strength here. But we've got a bunch of data coming out in about 20 minutes US GDP and so we want to pay attention to that because that's going to obviously inform us to where the Fed are likely to be. We've got a Fed meeting next week. So I'm looking for any move up into the weekly R2 and this trend line resistance, weekly projected range resistance just above the 12,000 level. I think we could see a pullback there. Certainly if we don't see new highs here in momentum, we'll get that momentum divergence. I think I could set us up for a bit of a corrective move and I'd ultimately be looking for any pullbacks now into 11,800 and this internal trend line support. As long as we find support there and buy a step back in, then we've got an equality target and the range resistance really at this stage. 12,316 monthly projected range resistance above at 12,330s. If we get that move, that's broadly going to coalesce with the idea that we test those 4100s with the S&P 500. Dow Jones triangle set up here. I'm looking for us to test 34,119. So any pullbacks into either the pivot here, 33,600, or if we get a deeper pullback into daily projected range support and this internal trend line support, 33,490. What's with bullish reversal patterns there? And we're looking for a test of 34,199, 34,200 is the objective for the Dow Jones. Moving to the DAX. So the DAX is grinding out. We are looking for this high volume on the weekly timeframe, 15,500 and we're setting up to put in a test of that. So with the DAX at the moment, what I would be looking for is any break through now. This triangle resistance. So let's say 15,240. I'd be engaged on the long side there using a stop below this trend line support targeting that 15,500. I'd be booking some profits there. We've got some momentum divergence developing. And I think from there, we'll see another corrective phase unwind in terms of the DAX. Ultimately, I'd like to see me back into this trend line support here. 14,700s. Well, we'll have to see where it is if we get this test into the 15,000. But that's what I'd be looking for is a pullback into that trend line support, these prior highs. And then we look to see if we can build another leg to the upside for the DAX. Nikkei showing some decent strength. Exceeded our equality objectives. Now I'm looking from last week. So if you'll remember from last week, I suggested that we had, we've exceeded 161 extension of that swing. So 27,200. So that alerts you to the idea that the move we're seeing at the moment has impulsive qualities. And so the next objective was going to be the internal equality move here, which we've tested 27,530, pretty much to the tick here. And we're seeing a bit of consolidation. So I want to be long on any break through that level. So through 27,550, let's say, we're going to target then 27,700 as pullbacks remain supported back into those prior highs. I'm actually looking for 27,920 as the next upside objective, which comes coincides with our weekly high volume notes. So 27,900 on any breakthrough, 27,550 is the trade there. The Nifty have been the standout performer last week. We were looking for trend channel resistance to hold the pullback into our 17,660s. Potentially that move is setting up now. So I'm going to be watching for that. And as we get into that area, which is the 61.8% retracement of our prior impulsive advance, I'll watch for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side, looking for a break of the corrective trend channel, the high volume note back through 18,130. And then I think we can re-challenge prior cycle highs en route to new cycle highs is the setup there. Now, if buyers don't step in this region, then we'll be looking at a much deeper pullback. We'll see here on the daily timeframe, the equality objective versus the swing structure there has us testing 17,220, which also coincides with monthly projected range of sport and the 78.6% retracement of the prior advance. That's the next area I've been looking at if buyers don't step in at the 17,640s. TLT, the bond market, the bond proxy I use, still haven't been able to take out the 109.50 resistance. At any point that we do get a close through there, on the daily timeframe, I will be on the long side looking for the equality objective versus our swing low here, 99.20s, we are looking for a 116.83 test on the upside there with TLT. Whilst we hold resistance here at the 108.70s, there's still the chance that we get a pullback now into test the trend channel support just below the 100 level. But again, that's another area where I'd be watching the bullish reversal patterns from Gage on the long side, same upside objective, 116.80s. Nothing to do on the short side unless we get a daily close back through our pivot there, our potential B wave low at 99.20s. Let's move into foreign exchange space, dollar index. Still in the wedge looking for 170 level to get tested, which is the projected ending diagonal pattern to the downside below there. We have weekly projected range support, 150. So I'm watching any test here and as long as we maintain the momentum divergence, i.e. new low in price, no new low in the momentum study, I'm watching for bullish reversal patterns to play this on the long side on the daily timeframe. I look for 103.40s trend channel resistance. The potential is now without any meaningful data surprise. We have PCE out tomorrow, which is a favorite of the FOMC in terms of gauging inflation within the committee. Unless we get any major surprises, so 1% plus or minus outside of what's expected, I'm thinking we're probably going to grind this out and not do much until that FOMC meeting next week, which is likely to be the next major catalyst for these markets. But any move into this area we'll be watching for bullish reversal patterns and I will be looking to play a correction into that trend channel resistance, 1.340s. Euro dollar, similar setup really, obviously the inverse to the dollar index. I'm looking for any move into 1.0950s as long as we maintain momentum divergence and then look to play a correction. Often what happens when you get these markets that are slightly extended, heading into a major catalyst, the day before or 48 hours before the news event you see a correction developed. So I'd be looking for any grind into 1.0950s. I'd be watching for bearish reversal patterns as long as we maintain momentum divergence. Trade on the short side, just looking for a correction, initially then targeting the high volume area here at the 10820s. And then certainly post the FOMC bullish reversal patterns, I think we trade 1.10. We also have the ECB next week as well. Ultimately on the daily timeframe and if anything above 1.0650s at the moment, I see a support and I'm thinking we trade higher in terms of Euro dollar and I think ultimately on the daily timeframe with the dollar index. Whilst this trend channel is respected I see us looking at for a move down to the 98 level ultimately as the downside objective for this dollar index move. So I'm just looking to play counter trend corrections and then I'm looking to realign with the trend. Sterling choppy action this week and Sterling political machinations continue with the conservative party. So and the data has been mixed at best. So we're seeing a bit of back and forth here but ultimately I think we get a test of the 1.024.60s weekly daily projected range resistance 1.27 extension there as well. From there I watch the bearish reversal patterns and I think we get a pullback in Sterling and what I'd be looking for with Sterling here on the daily timeframe. Let's just update this move. I've been looking for any pullbacks into 1.2150s that's the level 1.2150s any pullbacks into their bullish reversal patterns and we want to be looking to build the long exposure to ultimately target the 128 weekly trend channel resistance. Dollar yen looking like it might make a test here of its trend channel resistance. Any move into this 1.3130, 1.3050 area I'm going to be watching for bearish reversal patterns engage on the short side. I'm looking in the interim for a 1.25 test on the downside. It's going to take a close back through 1.32 84 to suggest we have a more meaningful low in place and we target range resistance up to 1.3460s. Dollar CAD obviously we have great decision yesterday. Not doing much of anything at the moment. We still have that 1.2970 equality objective here on the daily timeframe. So what I'd be looking for is any close. Well, this is actually what I would look for. What you want to see is a breakdown through that will test the trend channel support and the weekly projected range supports. Then any move back into this area from below. So we look for this price support to actors resistance. We've been chipping away at it. Any move there that gets a bearish reaction. I'd engage on the short side looking for us to break down and we've got that target to the downside. 1.2970s Aussie dollar. Looking for 71.50 looking for bearish momentum divergence new high in price, no new high in the momentum study. I think we can see a pullback there. Three wave corrects move. I'm looking for a move into this internal trend channel sport just above 1.70 from there again. If we get that move into the FMC then we look to engage on the long side bullish reversal patterns. And next upside objective 72.50s. Like you know, those who are here regularly, I am actually looking for 73.40s, which is the bigger quality test to play out. So we're looking for an entry into that move. We also have the weekly projected range resistance coming at that level as well. 73.40s is the zone that we're looking to target on any pullbacks here. Move on quickly here so that I can fill in some questions. Gold, I've been long gold. I covered position this morning and I'm looking then for a pullback to play for a re-entry into gold. I see further upside but like I say, we've had a decent clip here to the upside out of the back end of last year into the early part of this year. I think we should see some position squaring ahead of the FMC and then if the FMC can deliver that 25 basis point hike next week as markets are pricing, I think there'll be an opportunity to re-engage gold on the long side. I'm ultimately looking for quite a significant move higher in gold this year. Crude oil is another one I've been trading from the long side. I cashed in that position as well this week. I'm now looking at the opportunity to re-engage here. So if we can get a close back through 81.50s, I'm going to put another long on here using a stock just below 79.40s. Next target on the upside for me is that 83.50, a quality objective. If we can get through there, then we can start to think about 85.70s as the next target on the upside. So I'm watching for this four-hour close through this corrective trend channel resistance to play on the long side terms of crude to about 300 pips out of that move when we retested here. I got in at 74 and 77. I'd like to say cashed out this morning. Let's wrap things up here with Bitcoin. So what I'm looking for in Bitcoin is any move back into 22,200. We want to engage on the long side and we are targeting a move up into test this weekly resistance 25,380 yearly pivot 26,600. And then I think we could see a pullback there in Bitcoin to build a longer term base for an extension to the upside. But the immediate opportunity is watching any pullback into 22,200s. Watch for bullish reversal patterns there to engage on the long side and see a lift up in towards that 25,000. I will just leave you with the Euro yen. There's a nice set up I spotted here this morning in the Euro yen using the pitchfork entry method. So I'm looking for any pullback into the 140 level. Watch for bullish reversal patterns here. Engage on the long side. We've got an equality objective which sits at 14340. So I'd be risking 100 pips let's say there to play for 300 on the upside would be the game plan there. Okay, so that concludes this week's whistle stop tour of the market. So what I'll do now is open up for any questions. Can you please give us a free trade idea? I just did give you one. I've given you plenty throughout the entire presentation. If you're paying attention, you'll see where the trade opportunities are. Any other questions? You can also tell us. Let me post this link for you. Well, for everybody. But if you want to follow along with my trade ideas on a daily basis, here is a link to follow. Trade ideas. I post pretty much on a daily basis there with entry levels, targets, etc. And for those who are interested in receiving the daily trade plan for the S&P 500, I will post the Facebook link. All you do is request access and you'll get joined the group and you can follow along with my daily trade plan. And if you are interested in learning more about the telegram group when I give real-time trades, etc. You can PM me through there for details. Are there any other questions? Thanks, Phillip. Okay, guys, if there aren't any other questions, I'm going to wrap this session up here. Sure, I'll tell you what I'll do, guys. For those that are interested in learning more about what I do, I will provide to you here with my email address and you can message me directly. I'll come back to you as soon as I can. Okay, thanks very much for your time this week. As always, traders, plan the trade, trade the plan, and most importantly, manage your risk. Until next week, thanks very much.