 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Morning Markets Kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Now, Tommy O'Brien. Good morning everybody, I'm Tommy O'Brien, company live from TFNN Tuesday morning, just after 9 a.m. Eastern time. We got about 30 minutes to go until the start of trading and we got markets slipping just back into the red in the last few minutes. Quite a day yesterday to say the least in the S&Ps and the NASDAQ across the board this morning. We're kicking things off kind of right where we end of the day. Right now in the S&Ps you are negative by three points, trading at 46.58. Let's just zoom in on the action on the S&Ps right now. Quite a turnaround, man, just remarkable. You can't say enough about the day we had yesterday folks. Not sure it's indicative of where we go from here, but pretty remarkable the turnaround, especially in the NASDAQ. You're talking about going from negative 2.5% to even on the day. I'm not sure how many times you've been down 2.5% on any of the major indices and finished the day in the green. I'm not sure how many times you've done that without some kind of monumental catalyst as either a news driver, a Fed event, a non-farm payroll number, something to the tune that would jumpstart that. Yesterday we just got a turnaround. I mean, yeah, there's stuff happening in the market, but we just got a straight out turnaround. The S&Ps were trading from 46.60. You traded down 90 points and you got it all back. The market in the last 15 minutes surged almost 30 points in the S&Ps to close right at that number, NASDAQ 100. Checking out the move we had yesterday. At about 3 in the morning, if you recall, the markets were actually in positive territory. Things looked pretty rosy coming into the Monday morning session. Barely in the green, not so much the case as we fast forward. You trade from 15,672. Okay, that or thereabouts. What's the high there technically? 15,669. So we'll call it 15,670 down to 520 points and just like that, though, you got basically it all back. You ended the session green in the Qs and just like that, we're actually above 15,700. The Dow quite a turnaround as well. The Dow had been the leader early in the day. You sold off at right about 930. You trade down about 500 points. We're just under 36,000 in the Dow right now. Bitcoin had a little bit of a moment of truth on the morning program yesterday. We're talking about under 40,000. Bitcoin surges back with the market, but that was a little bit of a moment of truth. You take a look at the daily on Bitcoin. You're in some dicey areas when you're actually trading at the lowest level that we've been at on crypto, Bitcoin in particular, since August. August, you are actually below any of the lows that we were trading at in September. Those lows just at about 40,000. You got a 39,000 handle on Bitcoin. We'll see how they Bitcoin trades this morning. Crude showing renewed strength. Checking out the Crude contract. You talk about an acceleration, man. Crude was down to 78 bucks yesterday. We were just trading at $80 this morning. 79,86 in Crude. You got the gold contract back above 1,800. Yesterday, you were down to 1,792. Gold climbs to about 1,810 overnight early this morning. Little bit of a sell-off in about the last hour in that gold contract. And we jumped to silver up six pennies right now in the all-important notes and bonds. On the day that we had Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in front of the Senate, up for another nomination, not too much probably expected to come out. But nonetheless, he will be there. There is the opportunity for something to occur. We got the 10-year right now basically right back down near lows that we're talking about of yesterday. You were up. I mean, look at the action. 4 o'clock this morning, you were up to 1,2814. We just gave up 11 ticks in the 10-year in the span of about the last, what? Four hours, four and a half hours in that 10-year. And let's jump over to the VIX. You talk about some swings. VIX up to 2333. And just like that, we finished the session yesterday at just above 19. We're treating it 1987. OK, let's jump over to the indices. Taking a look at some of the long-term channels. I've been talking about these channels many times. We're at some critical areas here. You trade below that channel line, keeping your eye on this channel line, just to see how critical we're at this critical line. Now, I was talking about yesterday morning, even, especially in the NASDAQ. We'll jump over in a moment saying we're at a pretty critical level here. Now, there's channel line in the S&Ps. You're talking about basically back to the COVID lows. And you see zooming in. We're sitting right at that channel line right now. And it's remarkable that, yeah, you got a tail. OK, but you got a tail. And right as this market trades out, look at that tail. Right as this market trades out of that channel line. OK, talk about a rebound, man. Now, the only dicey thing here is if you're familiar with the channel king, our man, Bud Roffs, he would always love his channels. He used to be a host at TFNN, had a couple of newsletters. What he would say is he would look at channels. All right, and he would say the best part, way to trade a channel is if you're looking for a breakout, let's say you're looking for a breakout to the downside of this channel line. OK, S&Ps been in an up channel. If you're looking for a reversal of that, what you look for is you look for it to break out of the channel. You want it to come back up and test that channel line. That is where you go short. You do not go short when it breaks through the channel line. You let it break through the channel line. You let it come back up and test that channel line. And that's where you would be looking for the opportunity to go short. Nothing to say they can't break back through into the channel. But if it does reject that channel line, that's where you get some negative action, folks. So interesting where we sit. Interesting the pop we got. I said in my newsletter yesterday, if we get a pop, and at that time it was early yesterday morning, middle of the day, if we get a pop, that was quite an if at the time. But I said if we get a pop in these indices, it's going to be critical to see how they trade as we come back up to these channel lines. So keep your eye on them. When you check out the cues, put up three of them there, cues made it back in that channel line. Now we were up to 381 this morning. We're back down to 379. We don't have a daily bar for this morning yet on this chart. The cues, you back things up. We're talking about going back about 16 months ago to September, maybe October. Really the run begins last November when we get the vaccine efficacy numbers. Now what's remarkable here just in the context of life, right? Seems like two years have just been all compressed into a COVID haze of time passing by. Last year, we were supposed to kind of come out of COVID, right? We got the vaccine efficacies in November. We start rolling out the vaccines around the new year. I think I got my vaccine early on March and April. They started going out to the general population. Nonetheless, we've had the third wave. We've had the Delta wave. We've now have now have the Omicron wave point being that was only a year ago. That's when the market really took off going back to last November. It'd be interesting to see how we come into 2022. Quite a different scenario here. It seems like everyone's getting Omicron. All right. The vaccines do work folks. Boosters do work when you're talking about either protecting some cases and protecting talking about really tough cases. If you're in a vulnerable population, you're worried about spreading it. Yes, breakthrough cases everywhere. All right. Very possible to be the person who's double vax, boosted, and you've had prior COVID and you get the Omicron variant. But the bottom line is when you're talking about people in the hospital, you're talking about deadly sickness. Unfortunately, people who are unvaccinated, a large majority of that. We are going to see though, that we are in a much different spot coming into 2022 than we were in 2021. And guess what? We are right at a critical point on the lower boundary. Now I said, this is the cues. Look how perfect this channel line is folks. All right. And we're going back 13 months. You better keep channels on your radar when you've got a channel that is well defined like this. All right. Ironic that we get a pop right when it blows below below those channel lines. As you can see, it got above that area a couple of occasions. Pretty short lived only for a couple of days before then you trade lower. Again, this sell-off almost began December 28th right at the peak level. Now zooming in on the 15 minute, again, critical area. That was yesterday's action. You trade down to 369. The channel was at 376. Didn't look like you'd be back in the channel line anytime soon. And guess what? We're back above that price level. 376 is that channel line in the cues. All right, folks. Stay tuned. We got the SMP, negative by one Nasdaq, negative by 27. We'll be right back in three minutes. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at tfnn.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to. And you can trust Larry's analysis. 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Yep, big day today as we'll hear from Jerome Powell in his confirmation hearings. We already had just a little bit of data out this morning. NFIB was a little better than expected. Red Book was a good solid number at 14.4%. So the retail sector still solid and strong into the new year. But as you know, Tommy, tomorrow starts a slew of economic data. CPI on Wednesday, PPI on Thursday, retail sales on Friday. That should give us a pretty good picture of what's going on here in the economy. And yesterday's trade, Tommy, was nothing short of spectacular. It was about, if you look at the charts, about 70 minutes into the trading day where all four indices bottomed out, bond yields topped out, and the VIX topped out. And the market spent the rest of the day grinding higher. So much so that the NASDAQ got all the way back to positive. That day yesterday was spectacular, Tommy. It's pretty remarkable, man. We'll have to hire some statisticians to figure out because I was saying, Kevin, NASDAQ is like 2.5% in the red. You finish in the green. I don't know how many days you've had a 2.5% day down and you finish in the green. And many times, as you know, and the listeners probably know, but many times there's a catalyst, right? There's a huge catalyst. As in, there's some type of economic number. There's some type of major news number. Maybe it's a Fed decision or something like that. Yesterday, man, there was just a turn around the middle of the day. It was pretty wild. In our trading room, the den, in our YouTube chat, the end of the day was pretty wild, Kevin, and it was really remarkable. And as you said, man, things, we kick right into it. We got CPI tomorrow, a big number when you're looking at inflation. We got PPI, you got retail sales, and we're coming into earnings too. We got Delta on Thursday, and then we get the banks, man, coming out on Friday. We almost get all of them out there on the big ones on Friday. Interesting with the yields, are you looking? I mean, we know the economic numbers are going to be huge that you just talked about. We know all the action we have in the few days that we got coming up this week. Oh, yeah. I mean, the banks starting earning season with J.P. Morgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and a couple other small ones, that starts earning season. I always say the banks start earning season, and Nike ends earning season. But so, yeah, Friday morning starts us off and running, Tommy, and I expect the banks to put up some whopper numbers. Now, does that mean the stocks go up? No, because they've had good runs into this earnings report, but certainly the banks, it'll be a tone change, right? It'll be something different to focus on besides government policies and interest rates and inflation. It'll be another different data point for us to go through each day, and then as you know, it doesn't come with a drip. It comes like a fire hose with earnings into next week and beyond. It's pretty cool, man. Some of these banks, too. I'm just jumping through them in the Thinkorswim platform. You got Wells Fargo, really quite an acceleration, man. You end 2021, about 48. You're trading up $7 higher already. You're pushing 15 to 20%. You jump over to likes of City. City is up a good 10% coming into the year. Of course, we've had yields. Quite the run in yields, Kevin. We started this year at about 1.5. We're sitting hovering near almost 1.8. What's interesting is, and you brought it up, the way this market moved, like you said, everything turned on a dime. I got a chart of the 10-tier up here on the Thinkorswim platform. We were down to $127.30 for price action yesterday. You charged all the way higher to almost $128.10 at the end of the day. You finished overnight as in you were overnight to $128.14. Interesting, though, Kevin, we've actually had a little bit of a sell-off since about four in the morning, about 10 to 12 ticks. Maybe that's because we haven't quite had that big of an impact in the markets. Yes, we've seen kind of a pullback, but that 10-tier, you're only basically what are we, six ticks away from the lows we had yesterday morning. Meanwhile, the market is sitting almost 2% on the NASDAQ higher from where we are. Do you look for that correlation a little bit, or what do you think when you see that 10-tier inching back towards where we were yesterday in the middle of the day, meanwhile the market's much higher still? If the market reacts, it gets uncomfortable with a surging 10-tier, right? And you can make the case that the 10-tier has surged over the last week or so from basically 1.4 to 1.8. Now, if the 10-tier starts to plateau and stop, markets get uncomfortable and then over time they get less uncomfortable. And I think that's what you're starting to see because rates didn't accelerate higher. Now, some of the 10-tier notes, you know, the 10-tier note was a little oversold. Some of the, you know, the TNX was a little overbought. A lot of things got into oversold and overbought territory yesterday. So that was part of it as well, maybe some short term, but, you know, it'll all have to do with Jerome Powell's comments today and CPI tomorrow morning, Tommy. Pretty cool, man. We got a lot of volatility. We got two-way market man to say the least after Kevin. We gave a pre-cursor to all the action going on out there, but what are you guys going to be talking about, coming up on Fast Market at noon today? Like, Paulio is going to do a presentation on the home sector, home builders. And then around that, we're going to trade Amazon and we're going to trade AMD. Two names in the news, well, basically every day. So because we get KB homes that we'll look at and break down today. We get KB homes, I think. Are they out with their numbers after the bell today? I'm jumping over the Analyze tab, the Earnings tab, January 12th tomorrow, KB homes out with their earnings. Nice. You can jump around in that Amazon, man. This one, little bit of a head scratcher. I'm a big bull on Amazon, but talk about a consolidation, Kevin, underperformance last year, as we kind of all know. You chop around and we've traded now from 3700 to 3200. That company, though, in my opinion, this is my own bias, folks, they have a lot of potential upside when you think about AWS with the retail. It seemed like last December for the holidays, Kevin, maybe you can inject this into the program. I think I was buying two items a day for the entire month on Amazon for the holidays, but we'll leave it at that. I kid, but quite a company. Kevin, man, we appreciate the conversation. We'll be watching the show at 12 noon today, as always, man. Thanks for having me on, Tommy. Have a great day. Always a pleasure. Folks, 12 noon eastern time today. You heard about it. They'll be talking about the home builders. We start to get those earnings. KB homes, they're out with their numbers and Amazon and AMD. Yeah, Amazon, man. Check out the consolidation. I got the chart up here on the thinkorswim platform. You've been chopping around, folks, June of 2020. We have been above 3,000. You're going to open today about 3,225. Twice you've made it up to 3,700 and change right now. You jump over to the analyze tab, you jump down to the fundamentals. You're talking about a company valued at $1.6 trillion. It's quite a valuation to say the least, but when you start comparing it to some of the other companies, remember when the race was on to get to $1 trillion? I think that was back in late 2018. The usual suspects competing, right? Microsoft, Apple, Google, Amazon was even in the mix to make that run. Not so much the case. Apple almost one and a half times to two times the company that Amazon is. But man, they got a lot of growth potential when you think about AWS controlling the backbone of the internet for a majority of businesses combined with of course the retail and they just got a lot going on. Whether it's, you know, you look at Rivian, right? And then you look at they just teamed up with another car company out there just really in the forefront. And I talk about with my dad all the time. I said you know, the process of a lot of the competitors Walmart target, they got good processes but man, they got spent a lot of money to compete with Amazon because there's a lot of things that they just don't live up to in the same degree. We'll talk about a little bit more when we get back. Stay tuned folks. We'll be right back for the open. Are you having fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with? 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Get your copy of The Art of Timing the Trade Charts today at tfnn.com This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com Welcome back folks. We got markets open and we're open and basically right near the pre-market session lows. We got a chart of the S&P up here. You were down at about 46-55 last night at about 2 a.m. down at that area at about 3 30 a.m. We opened right at that area and you're talking about 25 points off of the highs. On the Nasdaq 100 you just gave up 150 points from the highs and you're actually below where we were last night on the open. Not the kind of open that you'd want to see for strength folks. You're up at 15,720. We just gave up 1% 1% since 6 a.m. this morning. They're in there talking about the den. Our man Jeff posted a nice little tweet there saying that you know and this is his take. But it could be rebounds. Do happen faster because you're getting volatility in both directions in bad markets sometimes and look at this sell-off. Watch out below folks. Here we go. Nasdaq 100 down 85 right now. The market can't even catch up as we accelerate out of the gate. Now compared to where we were yesterday folks that is not an acceleration. Context is very important here. If you think that you missed the sell then you weren't paying attention yesterday. We got 400 points almost to where we were yesterday at the lows. You have about 80 points to where you were on the S&P's on the lows and the Dow you're talking about almost 400 points. Pretty remarkable that acceleration. Let's jump over to crude 79-52. There's a quick turnaround up to 80 bucks back down to 79-54. Gold contract up about 5 bucks at 18.04. We jump over to the VIX on this negative spike VIX back above 20 this morning as the market. Not quite done trained to lower prices. And folks if you are a trader short-term we have a two-way market in a big way. If you're a trader in the long-term then you better buckle up for some volatility over the next year because it's going to happen. It's going to happen in both directions and where we sit in this market provides the opportunity for some pretty extreme volatility when you look at this uptrend. That is not how markets move forever. We all know that if you take a look at a long-term chart of the S&P or any index that is not how they work forever quite an up-turn channel from almost 2170 to 4808 2174 to 4808 in the span of under two years. Volatility folks. But over the next year the way this market needs to figure out how to price all of these equities with rate hikes coming it's just very difficult to peg it when so much is up in the air. We take that and fast forward to today's action with Chairman Powell. In his remarks, the opening remarks for his confirmation hearing, he says that the Fed is to ensure inflation doesn't take root in the economy. I'm sure that's not what he wants his legacy to be folks. Post-pandemic economy is likely to be different. That's an interesting take as he comes out there. We will use our tools to support the economy in a strong labor market and to prevent higher inflation from becoming entrenched. Brief opening statement prepared for delivery, the confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee today. We can begin to see that the post-pandemic economy is likely to be different in some respects. I'd say that's putting it lightly folks. The pursuit of our goals will need to take these differences into account. Yeah, and that is ahead of today's hearing. Scrolling down on that 9% U.S. unemployment in December jobless rates for black Americans rising to 7.1. There's obviously a discrepancy in what's going on in terms of the economy with the winners and losers. Powell in his remarks, a lot of the Fed's supervisory efforts on financial oversight work over the past four years. We work to improve the public's access to instant payments, intensified our focus and supervisory efforts on involving threats such as climate change and cyber attacks and expanded our analysis and monitoring of financial stability. While the market's interested in where they're going to send the interest rate right now, not how they're keeping track of all of they just referenced. Nonetheless, we'll see if there's any headlines that come out. The one thing I did catch that was interesting here is just that mark that likely it's going to be a little bit more interesting to look at the post pandemic economy, wondering how that shifts in terms of how they impact things in any way. Let's jump around to some of the fang stocks. As we got the Nasdaq and negative prices Dow accelerating, you're off four tenths of a percent right now in the Dow. You just dropped 150 points from the open in the Dow. S&Ps down 15 at 46 45. Yeah, we are making lows right now across the board. Nasdaq 100 down 84 points, little pop in the Nasdaq 100. We'll jump over to some of the fang stocks. They're going to be talking to Amazon on fast market at 12 noon today. Amazon positive, always interesting. You can learn a lot folks about how stocks behave on days like yesterday, days like today. Amazon basically flat right now. You jump over to Microsoft shares, Microsoft that's a sell off on the open down 1.2 percent from Microsoft shares. We jumped to the big dog Apple. Apple shares down to 10th percent almost flat for Apple. We jumped to Google shares down about nine tenths percent. We jump over to Facebook, Mata, positive by a hair up one tenth percent. Let's see how some of those banks are reacting today. You got JPMorgan down a bit. Oh, there's a little bit of sell off on the open. My goodness, JPMorgan down four tenths after opening in the green. We jump over to city. City is up about four tenths. We jump to Wells Fargo basically flat right now. All right, let's jump around to some of the other stories because we got some stories out this morning. I'm going to kick it off with Citadel. Citadel securities How about 1.15 billion potential IPO path that's speculation but nonetheless it's the first outside investment giving Citadel securities the 22 billion dollar valuation. Sequoia partnering with paradigm which is that Alfred Lynn paradigm is a crypto investor paradigm. There it is cryptocurrency investor paradigm. I was looking up them this morning. So 1.15 billion. They value the firm at about 22 billion dollars. Now this is different from Citadel the hedge fund to keep in track. Okay, Citadel securities corporate behemoth trading 1600 clients sovereign wealth funds 50 countries Citadel 1990 43 billion investment capital he later established Citadel securities. So Citadel is the hedge fund. Citadel securities is the market maker processing the trades. Now, we all know that they've gotten a lot of press during COVID in terms of whether it was the Robin Hood fiasco right and Ken Griffin and his involvement with potentially that as alleged and don't think it happened but man he was everywhere. The growth they experienced how about 6.7 billion net trading revenue in 2020 almost double 2018 earnings before interest taxes deductions and amortization in the red net trading revenue in the black just an absolute explosion to back it up to 2017 they're at 1.7 billion total revenue with 755 of earnings you fast forward you're at 4.1 billion in earnings last year while I say last year 2020 now alone yeah 4.1 pretty remarkable and they hint that if they're taken on private equity for the first time that might be their path to an IPO coming in the future but they declined to comment not surprising there yeah this was an interesting one as well Huawei ranks number five in the US patents in a sign of Chinese growth to be interesting to see the political shape of how this plays out IBM retaining the number one position in getting us patents last year pretty interesting that IBM keeps that number up there considering how the stock's been pummeled I'll pull up a chart on IBM long term in a minute but Huawei their networking equipment is shut out of the US market but they received 2770 US patents last year number five behind perennial top-getter IBM than the other companies that were in there what are they got yeah yeah Samsung, Canon, Taiwan semiconductor rounded out the top five not less surprising if we have such a problem with them the success in obtaining patents comes as its networking equipment is shut out of the American market I imagine that's going to become a political topic at some point as it may deserve to be stay tuned folks we got the SMPs negative by 16 we'll be right back are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area including the surrounding St. Petersburg Tampa and Clearwater markets Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area whether you're looking to sell your current property at maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay Area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels from the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up and coming areas to the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating Tiger Real Estate can help you make the best decision when it comes to all areas of the market before you make one of the biggest decisions of your financial future call Tiger Real Estate LLC today at 727-329-8322 or email us at Tiger at TFNN.com that's 727-329-8322 call us today the technology around us is changing every day with so much happening it can seem impossible to keep up with all the information David White's investment newsletter the Technology Insider is designed to give you all the information you need to understand the technology that shapes today's markets and tomorrow's future David White has made his living staying on the cutting edge of technology his weekly newsletter will give you specific recommendations for value tech stocks as well as entry prices target prices and stops to set for each trade Dave delivers his weekly newsletters every Friday with updates throughout the week you can get the Technology Insider at TFNN.com for only $37.50 sign up for David's newsletter the Technology Insider and get an inside look at everything the technology sector has to offer try it risk free today with our 30-day Money Back Guarantee TFNN Educating Investors Will the S&P 500 continue to climb for bold trades on U.S. large cap stocks in either direction trade SPXL SPUU or SPXS directions daily the S&P 500 bull and bear leveraged ETFs direction leveraged ETFs an investor should carefully consider a funds investment objective risks charges and expenses before investing a funds prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a funds prospectus and summary prospectus call 866-476-7523 or visit Direction Investments.com a funds prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor Foresight Fund Services, LLC Don't forget you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV That's TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV Welcome back folks Nasdaq 100 even 98 points right now 15,910 you look at the S&Ps you're accelerating lower down 24 points that's a second leg down we got five minute bars going on here in the S&Ps 930 you drop 15 points 935 you give it a pause for a few minutes and 940 you pick up on selling again it's 942 folks markets only been open for 12 minutes we got some action out here in a big way look at the Dow just dropped 225 points in the last 12 minutes folks 100 down 103 remember we were in positive territory coming into things at about 5 to 6 a.m. this morning markets not so comfortable with that idea let's jump over to the VIX this morning in the VIX 2061 we jumped to notes and bonds the all important and as I was talking about to Kevin keep your eye on this one right because that's kind of what I was looking at Kevin dead on talking about you know middle of the trading day everything was at low as you traded higher meanwhile you had the 10 year at 910 this morning okay trading at the same price point keep in mind of where you were at much lower price levels than where we finish the day okay in the market probably woke up and said hey guess what higher yields is still coming the 10 year just traded down 12 points since 4 in the morning we got to catch up and the market sells off down 113 points we're now under 15,500 and again context is important you still got 350 points to go if you want to talk about yesterday's lows so still well off the lows we'll see where we go from there all right staying with the fed staying with interest rates staying with hikes the feds Atlanta president Raphael Bostic he is talking about maybe in March ready to act to cap inflation with March lift off shrinking the balance sheet could come soon after he says the trajectory of the economy is quite positive I would be hard pressed to disagree with that when you look in an unemployment rate 9% in inflation out of control the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta president Raphael Bostic said the central bank may need to raise interest rates as early as March and start reducing its balance sheet fairly soon after lift off to contain surging inflations we are ready surging inflation we are ready to act to make sure that inflation does not run away from us they better get going then this is the most important message that people should hear when they hear me or any of my colleagues talk we are paying close attention we are going to do all that we need to make sure that the economy stays in a good place that interview conducted Monday President Bostic said he penciled in three interest rate increases in 2022 in his forecast when they met in December and accelerated its bond tapering that was up from two hikes in September that reflects a growing economy a fast tightening labor market and inflation that has surprised to the upside this is important stuff that's why I'm reading it folks because this is what the market's paying attention to if the numbers continue to come in the way they have over the past several months I think a March lift off would be appropriate we could start our lift off of interest rates in the spring Fed officials meet later this month their next meeting after that is March 15th and 16th now I said in my newsletter yesterday and I think this just sums up my feelings very well and I'll repeat them the headline unemployment rate is at 3.9% and the CPI which we get tomorrow so that's going to be important one alright but the last CPI data we have is for November 6.8% the largest 12 month increase since 1982 and I'm reading this okay from the newsletter I sent out to subscribers yesterday they would have to be a monumental change in our economy to avoid three to four hikes this year inflation is here and unemployment is under 4% you don't have to be a market genius to look at just those two stats and realize that pressure will be on the Fed to hike and maybe faster than they'd like to folks hear that again CPI was up 6.8% year over year the largest increase in 40 years and unemployment is at 3.9% inflation is at 6.8% and the unemployment rate is at 3.9% remember those two numbers folks because unless they change dramatically which is what I said they would have to be a monumental change and that's what Bostic is talking about if things continue on the path they are which is that CPI is still pretty hot unemployment is almost at historic lows the rate hikes are coming three or four of them the risk is probably to four closer it is to three at this point I mean it's staggering in any other world folks outside of COVID if you had CPI running at almost 7% inflation on a yearly basis and you had the unemployment rate at 3.9% I mean you might get the Fed come in and do a surprise hike to cool off the economy because they'd be so worried about inflation but somehow we've convinced ourselves that there are enough transitory factors that the Fed doesn't have to act too quickly that argument is losing steam as inflation continually accelerated last year passed what the Fed was thinking so take that for what it's worth go over in my head when I was thinking about it this weekend trying to write the letter that I publish on Mondays for rocket equities and options and factoring in the tantrum that the market had last week let alone what we did yesterday right NASDAQ down 4% to kick the week off ah year off excuse me yeah that's what the market is seeing folks and they are dead on straight right unemployment is at 3.9% CPI is at 6.8% rates are going up they have to we'll see where CPI comes out tomorrow as I'm right Kevin Hicks was saying very important number and you see why I'm hinging on that I don't expect a massive drop but that's why if if things change of course things can change right if if inflation goes away and the CPI drops much faster than we thought you might not need four rate hikes but I don't imagine that's going to happen out of the blue with everything going on in this economy right now all right let's jump around what else we got going on we have a bunch of companies out there with their some action and yeah how about where were we I had it up here here we go so stocks making moves let's jump to Rivian yeah their CEO they lost this company be careful buying these IPOs right now folks Rivian talking about getting ahead of itself man up to 180 you're almost basically it lows at 80 bucks right now as they lose their COO I believe who is it yeah chief operating officer seems like you're operating officer when you're going from a pre-market company that makes no cars and is valued at 80 billion dollars to wrapping up a production effort for a pre-revenue company the likes we've never seen Amazon's got a hundred thousand vehicles they've already ordered your COO is probably a pretty important gentleman or woman gentle lady in that role and meanwhile this chief of chief operating officer had left the electric truck maker they said it wasn't a big day they say it was planned nonetheless I would pay attention to that one because there's probably nobody more critical in that company than the CEO then maybe the chief operating officer as you're figuring out how to operate a company that's going to produce hundreds of thousands of vehicles from zero vehicles speaking of losing executives Intel they poached MU microns chief financial officer as their new CFO effective next Monday starting right away at the same time they announced the departure of client computing group head Gregory Bryant seems like they the market like the idea that Intel was poaching microns CFO out there as they were a little bit higher micron a little bit lower this market watch out folks Intel down a little bit as we've gotten a market turnaround though let's see on the 15 minute yeah we were much higher on that news last night you give it all back micron was lower and you actually claw claw back the losses to be just basically negative with the market so far this morning let's jump around some of those fang stocks Microsoft down about seven tenths right now we jump to Tesla shares down about 1.2% right now we jump over to Google Google shares down a percent as well stay tuned folks we'll be coming right back we'll take a look at some of the other equities moving we got three minutes we'll be right back folks sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at TFNN you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8 30 a.m. to 4 p.m. eastern for free each host is 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want to make $1,000 per year on $100,000 invested or $7,000 per year on a secured Tiger First mortgage the Tiger First mortgage program may be just the program for you the Tiger First mortgage program pays 7% per year paid monthly for more information you can call 877-518-9190 that's 877-518-9190 for more information just click the thinkorswim banner on the front page of TFNN.com Welcome back folks we have the S&P is negative by 21 market's getting a little bit of a bounce off the lows NASDAQ 100 down just 56 points right now I got a chart of IBM up here referenced earlier talking about Huawei the number 5 slot for patents IBM the perennial leader there does this look like a chart of the perennial leader of patents in terms of patenting brilliant ideas to capitalize off the profitability of those ideas that's a monthly chart going back to 2013 and really remarkable this is that this month it sure is that we have hit the top portion of that now folks that is a little bit let me just back this up even more yeah and that's really correlating it's a pretty liberal channel line when you look where you're going here this top part in terms of where you put that top line there but you can see that this line at the bottom where do we end up here maybe somewhere in here somewhere in here point being we're pumping up against maybe the upper boundary line of that channel line on a monthly basis long term maybe that's where IBM tries to break above it but you saw you get above it and then you're potentially right back under that price point alright what else we got going on jumping around so the reason why I had IBM up there is that they got a double downgrade not what you want to see IBM UBS downgraded to a cell from neutral no excuse me just one downgrade I gotta be exact don't be unfair to IBM just one downgrade what I was talking about though Juniper they got a double upgrade that's what I had in my head from underperformed to a buy Bank of America said most networking vendors are still attractively valued and said Juniper's current guidance from management appears conservative JNPR is their symbol up 2.1% giving back maybe some of the gains you had Albertson's ACI out with their numbers you spike higher you're actually down 8.5% though after their numbers are out CVS raised the full year outlook profit of 833 to 838 market was looking for 8 bucks previously CVS is their symbol they were higher they give back some of it you're positive by about half a percent right now alright folks quite a market you get the Dow continuing to drop so much for the Dow leading the way on the rotation the Dow you're within 130 points of the lows yesterday the Dow just gave up 350 points from earlier this morning S&Ps down 331 Nasdaq 100 down only 80 right now in the Russell down about 12 alright folks stay tuned should be an interesting day in the markets we got live programming all day our man Basil Chapman he's up next with the Tiger technicians our we got our man Larry Pezzavento fast market Steve Rhodes Dave White Tom O'Brien this afternoon have a great Tuesday everybody