 Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to this issue briefing. It's about China and also we know that last year President Xi Jinping made a special address here and the whole world applauded. So this year when we gather again in doubles, we are embracing a better world with synchronized recovery both in the advanced economy and also in the emerging market. And in which China plays a big role there. And also we know that China had a 19th party congress late last year and according to our language we entered into a new era. And also aiming to play a robust role in the international affairs from economic, financial and environmental front, China need to tackle her own challenges at home while keeping the expectation of the whole world in mind. So in this issue briefing we will define China's role as a new global power and also as a global contributor. So we have a very small but very powerful panel today. And to my left you must be very familiar with him. Mr. Junying, he is the professor of the PBC School of Finance, also associated dean of the National Institute of Financial Research of Tsinghua University. And actually this institute and also this school is part of the PBOC. It's part of PBOC, I should say that. And also to my right Ms. Carol Lee, she is the managing director of the U University also from China. And I need to introduce that she is YGL, the most important participant of the winter doubles. And as I mentioned that China has entered into a new era. It is a Chinese way but still it is very important. And how do we elaborate the new era? And the formal elaboration is that China has entered into a time when the high quality of the development will be replaced. When a higher economic growth will be replaced by the high quality development. And at the same time in the 19th Party Congress there is a very interesting sentence saying that China offered the whole world a new option for those countries who would like to have a better and quick development while maintaining its independence. So according to my colleague in the World Bank they think that the whole world should be shaken by this sentence if not shocked by this sentence. So I would like to ask both my colleagues here what is your elaboration on the new era and what is your elaboration on the new option to the whole world? Maybe Ning first. Okay I think for the new era there are definitely a lot of interpretations to that. I will probably make three of my personal understanding. The first is I think as Yinti you have pointed out the priority of the economic growth is no longer put on the quantifiable growth numbers. It's more about the quality or the resilience of the economy. So I think that's a very big shift from what we have been seeing for the past two or three decades. Second I think we have a far more inclusive goal for the development. There has been a long-standing critique of China's growth model in terms of I think China focused too much on growth but not development. In a way our goal has not been too inclusive and we want to focus more on poverty relief, we want to focus more on environmental protection. Those are the things which are not only important but also I think coming in very timely with China's entering this mid to high income level country. So I think that is another big shift. The third one I think is not necessarily limited within the economic framework. I think it's more about a broader as you mentioned on the second point is what we're trying to achieve with economic growth is to bring the citizen of China and also maybe the citizen of the whole universe, at least the whole earth, a better future, a better opportunity to achieve or accomplish whatever they want to accomplish. I think this is like a big shift of going from highly focused on growth to more inclusive development goals and from more China focused to a more global focused objective. Thank you. And Camero, what is your view on that? Well, today's topic is how is China leading the world? I want to give a little context to my answer. I head up Yale University Center in China. Yale University a place where both Ning and I graduated from actually has a two centuries long partnership and engagement with the country. We also have a hundred plus partnerships and that's why we've built an understanding of how the country has developed over the years. The second thing I do is I'm also the co-founder of Lean In in China, which is a network of a hundred thousand young women covering a hundred universities in China. Because of the book called the Lean In? Yes, yes, inspired by Cheryl Sandberg's book. And so what I'm going to say is I believe that China is leading the world in poverty alleviation and also innovations for inclusive growth. Why is that? According to the World Bank over the past three decades, 700 million people have been lifted out of poverty in China. That's more than twice the population of America. And I believe that in the new era, millennials are very much pioneering the poverty alleviation efforts, not just government and businesses. I want to give two examples. The first example is a fellow Young Global Leader and also Yale alumnus. His name is Qin Yuefei. He has a new program, a new venture called Surf for China. And it's pretty much an internal peace core where he encourages young university graduates instead of taking up lucrative jobs, go to the villages, go to the most remote rural villages in China to jumpstart the rural economy by creating new economic opportunities, creating new enterprises, innovations, whatnot. The second example I want to bring forth, it's about women and empowerment. One of our role models in the Lean in China network is Cindy Mi from VIP Kid, for example. She is herself in her mid-thirties. She's running one of the unicorn companies in China, and her company is an online education platform. Right now, they teach English to children in China through the online platform with AI and all these other tools. The company now employs 40,000 teachers in North America, many of whom are actually stay-at-home moms who have previously not been able to find jobs. And I think these innovative uses of technology is not only creating growth in China, but for the rest of the world. Yeah, so very good stories from China and from our colleagues who take the leading role. But it's a micro level. We have a lot of the individuals can do a very good thing to lead. But at the same time as a macro level, as a national level, do you think that China is ready to lead the world? Yes, I think China is definitely getting there. I think you're definitely right in the sense that I think I'm always puzzled by when I'm looking at China's economy. If you look at things from top down or if you look at things from bottom up, you've got two different countries. So in some sense, I think China is getting there in a way of the sheer size of China's economy and China's population is making it just the leader of many different fields of the economy of the business world. I will give you one example, one is the consumer side. I think there are so many large, multiple, multi-country corporations. They have different sorts of needs and complaints about Chinese market. But then they also see the huge potential of the growing middle income class, which is creating the largest consumer market in the world. And that's setting the trend in whatever Chinese consumers want. Unfortunately, or fortunately, the companies around the world, they would have to conform to China's taste. And on a more higher up level, I think it's not just about China. I think China is to lead, but not to lead, I guess, the more developed country. China is more of a representative of the entire emerging economy. We're seeing China is being on the forefront of, I mean, in terms of multilateral, multinational organizations, in terms of the financial institutions, in terms of how to set up new economic or new financial orders for maybe not the largest economies in the world, but the fastest growing economy in the world. So I think that is where China is putting its interest together with the interests of many other countries in the similar, or it's like China 20, 30 years ago. So I think that is the trend which China is geared itself into. So I think that is when China is growing bigger, stronger, and also the Chinese market is growing more and more attractive, then naturally paved this way for China to lead the world through its own actions. It seems to me that your comment just echo the sentence in the 19th Party's Congress, which is we offer the world a new option. Am I right? Well, it really depends on, well, it's definitely a new option. I mean, I think China is setting itself up as an example in so many different ways. I mean, in one way, we economists have been having a very difficult time trying to rationalize or explain why China has been achieving its economic growth miracle in the past three and a half decades. And in some sense, we have to scratch our heads and say, well, is there something wrong with the existing economic theory? So I think in that sense, it is a new past. It is a new option. The question is the following twofold. One is whether this is an option which can be easily or reasonably easily replicated by other countries. Do you think One Belt, One Road is a good way to offer the world this new option? I think it is a great initiative. And as President Xi pointed out, I think it is one way to tie all the population around the globe together in one big mission. I think it is also very important that we are both culturally and economically ready to do something like that. But the scale, the scale and the size of the initiative, I think it is destined to have to be carried out once that by another and one thing after another. So I think it is a big initiative to what extent many of the things that has been mentioned can be achieved in the next five to ten years. I think that is a real question. I think that the devils are more in the details, more in the implementations. Thank you. And Carol, you offered us a lot of good examples of the individual and young individuals and women individuals in China. In terms of the gender issue, do you think that China can lead the world? Absolutely. At Lean in China, we do an annual survey to see what women want in their careers, in their family, in their development. We also reference to the World Economics Forum's Gender Gap Report. What we are finding in that is that China is actually leading the world in terms of the number of women in STEM professions. And I think that is really remarkable. It is because of the emphasis of math and sciences in our basic education and the participation of men and women and young girls and young boys in those very excellent programs, our pieces course, show that. So I actually think that is a model that other countries may seek to emulate in terms of, you know, why is it that in China, in Alibaba, JD.com, by Du Tensen, actually you would see almost an equal number of engineers and founders and partners who are women. And I think that is really remarkable. Yeah, that's good. And also, because China is big and in the big cities and the first tire cities, women can have a very equal right with their male colleagues. But in the hinterland and in the rural area, maybe the situation is totally different. So what should we do to cope with this situation? Well, what we are learning is that, for example, through the Surfer China program, the 300 million people in the rural population are mostly elderly and children, a lot of them female. So actually through the Surfer China efforts, we are trying to create programs that enable them to have economic opportunities and with the use of technology and e-commerce, sell their products and services to a much wider market than before. Because we want to invite you to join us for the discussion. So I will move very quickly to ask you some questions and allow you to join us for your debate. The first about economic growth. Actually, the economic growth in 2017 is a little bit more than expected, which is around 6.9 percent, which is much higher than a lot of the people's expectations. And also the IMF has just revised up the economic growth in China this year and also next year. So do you agree with the IMF that in this year China will grow at 6.6 percent? I think so. I think we're going to see a little bit more. A little higher or a little lower? Maybe a little bit lower. A little lower. I think the reason is I think the economic growth that we enjoyed in 2017 largely comes from partly coming from the devaluation of R&B, which is a boost to the foreign export, and partly coming from the lingering effect of the wealth. Actually, this year R&B is appreciating actually. Right. So that is why we're working to lose some of the boost from the devaluation from the previous year. The second is I think the lingering effect of the wealth effect from the housing market boom in 2016, which is probably going to be moderating as well. So I think we're going to see a little bit of moderation in the economic growth. But then from the bottom up, I think you really see a lot of very vibrant entrepreneurial activities. You're seeing the economy growing up. You're also seeing some of the infrastructure investment we've made five, maybe ten years ago is now finally paving its way to bearing fruit. So I think we're going to see a gentle slowdown, but I think it's still going to be good enough for us to achieve the doubling GDP per capita income. So you mean a 6.5? Yes. Exactly. Well, I think Neng is the expert on the quantitative numbers, but I think... You're on quality. On quality, I think. What I would like to add is in terms of inclusive growth, kind of the two pillars I mentioned in the rural areas, and also for kind of in the area of gender, I think it would be both a challenge and an opportunity to have inclusive growth in all areas. And as you know, China is such a vast place. So I always see that as probably there will need to be massive investments of resources, and you may not be able to see the returns right away. But I think over time, I believe that we will be able to eradicate extreme poverty by 2020 and move forward. Yeah. Then the risks in your mind? Right. I think the risks are probably twofold. One is, well, I think I'm very relieved to see that both the Party's Congress and the Central Economic Working Conference is putting preventing systematic financial risks at the top priority of the working policies. I think it is attracting enough attention or it's due attention from the policymakers. If I have to point out, I think there are two things which I am a little bit concerned about. One is still the debt problem, which is closely related with the asset bubble. So I think that the debt level itself is still under control. It's just the speed by which the debt has appreciated itself in the past five, six years. It is alarming. But I think China is already doing quite a bit on containing the problem, trying to tighten up the regulation. And we saw a little reduction in the debt to GDP level in 2017, which is the first in the past decade, which is very encouraging. So that's one level. The second is, I think I'm a little bit concerned about how the trade situation, the geopolitical situation is going to put some uncertainties to China's export, which is still a very big part of China's economic contributor. So I think this is something I'm very watchful about what's happening with the Korean Peninsula and what is happening with President Trump's policy about retaliation or its protection against China. Are you expecting a trade war between the China and the United States? I don't think there will be a full front trade war, but I think we will see conflicts rising up here and there. We have seen a 30 percent of the tariff for the year. Precisely. There might be a little bit of a ticket for tech going from both sides, but then I think the most constructive way would be for both sides to sit down, talk calmly, and have the issues work out. After all, trade should be a Pareto-enhancing mechanism where both sides would benefit from. Risk? I think Ning described it very well. I will focus on trade. I believe that as other countries may be reviewing their bilateral and multilateral trade relationships, there could be some interesting opportunities and challenges coming up, especially with the United States. However, I do feel that with the Belt and Road initiatives and China hoping to build more South-South cooperation and kind of a lot more diverse trade relationships around the world, in conjunction with building a very robust domestic economy that's increasingly surface-oriented, I do feel that it's an era of challenges and opportunities where we should see whether and how the country pivots in terms of changing the quality and the direction of its economic growth. Very quickly, before I open the floor, do you think that China can lead the world in a way that is an authoritative way of the government? And we can translate into a very effective and very efficient government, but it is authoritarian. Do you think this is the way China can lead the world? I guess this is too qualitative, so I will leave this to you. That's a very interesting question because I would characterize Chinese government as meritocratic at the foremost because I believe it's a system of seniority and there are multiple voices even for economic reform and where the direction of the country and the policy should go. So I think it's really a very sophisticated negotiation among different parties, businesses, the people as to what is best for the country. So I would say that it's actually a very interesting alternative to what's prevailing in the world these days. Yeah, it's something different. It's something really quick. And also I think there's a difference between the Western and the Eastern culture in the way that how government is perceived by its population. Yeah, right. Any questions from you? Yes, please, gentlemen. Please identify who you are and a question. Thank you. Ishan Deru at the Washington Post. Just quickly, just to rephrase the title of the panel, why would China want to lead the world? As you described, the incredible transformations, the upliftment of double the population of the U.S. from poverty has all taken place under an order guaranteed by the United States. Does China have very much interest in seeing that order shaken up or changed in any tangible way? And to return to the geopolitical question that has been briefly discussed, how real are the concerns in China about what the Trump administration may do or not do? They've, especially in recent days, they've taken a pretty hostile stance towards Chinese trade policies and that may be a sign of further tensions to come. So I welcome further thoughts. Can I ask you? I guess I've picked my... Shout out. Maybe we can collect more questions and you can respond later on. Oh, that's good. Yeah, please. Yeah, please. We collect all the questions. I have actually one question relating to risk. Although we enjoy like a synchronized global expansion, but one session called The Next Financial Crisis actually caught people's attention in this morning. There are actually three major risks that are close to everyone's heart. One is the asset bubble and not only the equity market. Now the bubble also spread its tentacle to the crypto asset. And the second is the risk in the banking sector, but most of them think the risk is clear after several years of a very serious stringent regulation. And the third is... What is your question? China's debt issue. So maybe could you please maybe elaborate a little bit more on the three risks? What do you think is the most critical one at a current juncture? Thank you. Yeah, please. There's a growing criticism of China... There's a growing criticism of China's protectionism and the difficult that it is for foreign companies to do business in China. And that the protectionism has not changed beyond some promises by your leader. So what do you see? Do you see that changing? Do you see a more open and more competitive market for foreign companies? Yeah, very good question. Thank you. Please. Marcus Price, AID, German TV. Since Davos is also about sharing perspectives, what is your perspective on Europe and the US? What are their problems and could they be overcome? Thanks. Okay. Yeah, please. Dr. Burkhardt, true news. My question is what obstacles or what problems do you foresee to expand from the One Belt Initiative over the next 10 to 25 years? Yeah, thank you very much. So very good questions and I give you and you can choose anyone. You can choose any questions you want to respond. Okay, may I pick AID's question on bubble? Because after I wrote this book titled China's Guaranteed Bubble last year, so I think that's a serious risk. And I'm very glad to see the policymakers have been putting a lot of emphasis on preventing that risk from materializing in the past year. If I have to sing out one thing which I think is going to be very beneficial in tapering off the bubble or preventing the bubble from bursting is, as my book mentioned, the guarantee. I think there's a lot of implicit guarantees in China's economy ranging from central government to lower level of government and then going to the private sector. So a lot of investors, corporations and even governments believe they don't have to take responsibility for the risks they have taken. They're only thinking about making money from investment not having to take up the consequences. So I think it is, I mean, the center theme of the risks, part of the reason why we're seeing so much speculation in ranging from housing market to the trust company products to some of the cryptocurrency is the investors believe there's something troubling. The government will eventually come out and build them out. I think the government will have to establish a credible threat in a way that investors, corporations, they have to take responsibility for their own risk taking. So I think that is the key to preventing risk from keeping building up. So I'll first take this one. I'll make an unusual attempt to try to answer all the questions in my own way, which is that I actually think that... But be very brief. Of course. A common problem among Europe, US, China is the quantitative easing that actually happened in the last financial crisis which created all these asset bubbles and legacy issues that we're all experiencing. And I think this is a big challenge because in the new era, the biggest objective is actually to have everyone pursue a happy and productive and meaningful life. And I think that is the purpose of all governments, whether US, Europe, developing countries, Africa, you name it. And so I actually see that as one of the challenges that we're all commonly facing in this era. And I believe my interpretation of the topic of this talk is where is China leading the world and maybe not necessarily why does China want to lead the world. But I do think that China does provide a valuable voice and perspective and perhaps alternative to some of the solutions to some of the most pressing issues that we're all facing. Do you want to talk a little bit about the doing business environment in China? Yeah, I think. Oh, doing business by foreign companies. It's a very interesting question because I understand that many of the chambers of commerce have actually kind of pointed out these problems in China in their recent surveys, business climate reports. And I would say that the Chinese government in various areas have listened. And for example, with the financial services area, this year there have been new openings and new promises in terms of reciprocity and honoring these principles. So I think it will be a very interesting environment going into 2018 and beyond. May I just add a couple of things. One is regarding the multinational companies. I think that there's one thing that's worth taking a look at. I think Chinese investors, Chinese consumers are different in their preferences. So in some sense, I think partly it's probably the business environment. Partly it's the foreign companies that have not been very successful in understanding the needs or the preferences of Chinese consumers. So I think there's both the poor and the poor side of the reality. And going back to the question by our friend from Washington Post, I think I tend to echo what Carol just said. I think it's not necessary about why China wants to live. Sometimes it's more of a natural outcome of the size or the development of one economy as what has happened to the U.S. like 150 years ago. So that's one thing. The second thing is I think it's not just about China. I think we have the BRICS countries. We have the mini countries. We have a lot of the emerging economies which have similar needs at different stages of their development periods. I think that's more of a representation of a larger group or a larger block of countries against the existing financial orders or the economic orders of the world, I think. And the Belt and Road? Oh, the Belt and Road, yeah. I think actually it's not just China's challenge. I think it's probably the challenge to many countries around the world. I can think of three things. One is terrorism. I mean just the very basic security reasons. I mean China is facing those challenges in its construction projects. It doesn't mean that other countries are not facing similar problems in other aspects. So I think that is one thing. The second is I think the financing, particularly financing for public projects, I think that is one challenge which President Xi highlighted in last year's G20 meeting about the more active fiscal policy. But then the question is where does the money come from? So I think that's one challenge not only for China but for many other countries along the Belt and Road Initiative. The last one is I think also very broader question, wealth distribution or redistribution. I think it's, I mean it is happening in the U.S. as well. It is happening along many of the not so wealthy countries along the Belt and Road Initiative. That is how can we have more inclusive growth? How can we have people appreciate what we have been building? Yeah, and also very hostile trade policy from the United States. And will we, China and the United States end up in the Thucydides trap? Finally, at the end of the day. Well, there's, I believe there's a debate about whether it's the Thucydides trap or the Kindleburger trap or the many other traps. And I think the trap is really just talking about the trap itself because a trap by itself means that if you're smart, you can recognize what it is and avoid it. And I believe that... I believe that at least with the Chinese government. The Chinese government is prepared for any scenarios that will happen geopolitically, economically because the Chinese government takes a very long-term strategic vision. So, you know, it may be different in different countries under different political systems. But I have confidence that leaders and leadership and also the people will be able to kind of voice their wisdom and how to, and private actors, how to navigate these traps and get around them and destroy these traps even. Destroy the trap? Yes. What's your solution for the traps? Well, I think especially with a platform such as the World Economic Forum, I think they have ample opportunities to work out the differences. And I think the leaders around the global are smart enough to see how, I guess, how flat the world has become. And it's really, nobody's interested to have any kind of war or traps or conflicts. Yeah. I think that we have run out of time and it's time for us to wrap up. I would like to take the privilege of the moderator to ask you the final question. My question is like this. In 10 years' time, do you think which one will become the next global currency? R&B or Bitcoin? A choice. I love this question. I can't say both? No. It's a competition between the two. I'm kidding. I'm kidding. I'll start. I would say neither. Neither. I think 10 years is probably too short for R&B to eventually become the dominant global currency. But the next? Yeah, the next. I think it's probably too soon. I mean, I think it's going to happen. But a decade is probably too soon of a target. So how long? I would say decades. I mean, if you look at the example of the U.S. dollar, it has taken the U.S. dollar decades to replace sterling become the dominant global currency. I think we will get there, but it's a matter of time. Would you like to predict the fate of the Bitcoin? Yeah, that's less certain. Okay. Much less certain. I would say that the R&B will become one of the major currencies, one of, together with USD. And Bitcoin could potentially become one of the major transactional store of value as well, depending on regulatory changes. You know, whether it's going, like who's going to use it? Who's using it? The exchange. So I think it will be a very interesting world that we and our children will be living in. Thank you. We'll come back 10 years later to have a look at which. That's very promising. Thank you so much. Thank you so much for the panelists. And also, thank you for you. Thank you.