 Rhaiddoch yn fwy fwy, cywpeth ysgol, yn ymddiad yw'r ffyrdd yma yn 2322 ac yn dechrau'r ffyrdd yn 2050. Rhywbeth y 10 ymddiad ymddiad ymddiad yma yn euchynig. Ym ydych chi'n meddwl o'r bwysig, mae'n fwy ffyrdd hynny sy'n ei wneud yn ei ddweud. Y cyfnodau, fel y cwntum cyfwysg, ac y nanotechnoedd, maen nhw'n mynd i ddweud y gweithio'r 100 ymgyrch o'r cyfnodau cyfwysgol ychydig yn cael eu ddweud y cwmparribol i'r oedd yn y prif sy'n ysgol yw'r 2,000 yma. A'r ysgrifennu yma, yw'r cyfnodau cyfwysgol yw'r 1 cyfwysgol yw'r 1 cyfwysgol yw'r 12. Fydd yw'r 2050, mae'n ddweud yw'r 7 cyfwysgol yw'r 7 cyfwysgol yw'r 7 cyfwysgol yw'r 8. Felly, mae'r ddweud yw'r ddweud yw'r 100 yw'r 100? Felly, rwy'n gwybod. Mae'r ddweud yw'r 100 yw'r 100? Yn wych, ac wrth gwrs ddweud bod hi'n rhoi'r gweithio'r cyfwysgol yw'r 100, cyfnodd yw'r 100 yw'r 100, mae'r ddweud yw ddweud yw'r 100 yw'r 100, ac mae'r 100 yn ddweud yw'r 100. Yn ddweud yw'r 1 cyfwysgol yw'r 1 cyfwysgol, yn gwybod, yn ddweud, ymddangosol, ymddangosol, yn ddweud yw'r 100 yw'r 100. now. Second, that this change will have decisive consequences for the living standards and for the life prospects of the people of Europe. Now you'll note that I've been very careful here not to say whether this change will be good or bad. I'm simply saying that there's a period of intense global change underway due to changes in global demographics, technology and purchasing power and its allocation across the globe. People, the fabled ordinary man and woman on the street know this change is happening. Our agricultural communities see it in the price they can achieve for their produce in new markets and in new competition. Young people feel as in the impact of technology in their daily lives and how they interact with other people and how they communicate with their friends. We all feel as in our working lives, in the race at which and in the speed with which new industries blossom or wither in response to shifts in global competitiveness. And this is the context for our discussion here today. In the last few minutes, I haven't mentioned any of the lexicon soup that you refer to a moment ago. Haven't mentioned any of the lingo, the lingo of peer reviews, country specific recommendations or semesters. And why is that? That's because we can spend too much time talking about the what of processes and not enough time talking about their why. And because of this, we do not relate this kind of work to the intuitive feeling that people do have of great change unfolding. And the core theme of my address here this morning is that the European semester process represents the strongest national response by Ireland and by our neighbours to these vast changes and vast opportunities, most of which are captured by the term globalization. And I look at this in four different ways. First, by relating the union and the semester back to how we want to help our citizens be secure and prosper in an ever changing world. Second, by explaining this process as simply as I can, and it is simple, it is simple, and noting how it differs from what went before. Third, by referring to Ireland now stands in our participation in the semester and fourth, by concluding with observations about the operation of this process now and some questions about it in the future. This new way of working and this new model of coordination and oversight is known as, as you all know, the European semester process. And it is rooted within what I believe to be the contemporary rationale for the European Union and what is that? I believe it's very straightforward and it's as follows. That we are more effective together, the we here refers to the countries of Europe on our own, on our own as countries, we're less effective in responding to the things that our people care about. So let me ask some questions to illustrate that point. Do we believe that European countries on their own could more effectively respond to climate change? Indeed, do we believe they would respond at all if they had to respond on their own? Do we believe that European countries on their own could better regulate banks that exist within national borders? It is obvious that national balance sheets on their own cannot deal with the failure of global banks. Do we believe that European countries on their own could best create conditions in which their own companies could fairly compete in the markets of their neighbour? Now, the common theme in all of these questions is globalization, how interdependence has changed the game for nations. The common answer in all of this is the need for us to work together. And this, as I've said, is the contemporary rationale for what we are now doing, that by working together we can achieve more as countries than we could on our own. And that's the hair shampoo advert says now for the science bit. This challenge is well summarised by David Held in his work on global governance when he refers to the paradox of governance as follows. The fact that collective issues with which we must grapple are of growing extensity and intensity and yet the means for addressing these are weak and incomplete. Global public goods seem to be chronically undersupplied and global bards build up and continue to threaten livelihoods. And the European Union is a response to this paradox. But what does this have to do with the semester process? The answer is absolutely everything. It is a response to these challenges. The process is not the rationale. Explaining how it works without first explaining why adds to the very questions and challenges of legitimacy. So then what is this? Simply it provides a structured process for coordination. Allowing the coordination of policies to improve the growth and social prospects of individual countries. The outcomes of this, the so-called country specific recommendations, are then reflected in the national budgetary cycles and decision making processes of countries in the second half of their year. And crucially what this is about doing is coming up with a way of agreeing and implementing a shared understanding of what each country needs to do to promote jobs, to promote growth and to promote social inclusion. In terms of the technical aspect of how it works, the cycle begins with the publication of the commission by their annual growth survey in November. This has a look at the social and economic situation of Europe and sets out the broad policy priorities for the EU as a whole for the coming year. This provides the framework then within which the national semester works. And let's have a look at what the priorities are that the commission has identified, each of which were then affirmed in the European Council meeting of December. The promotion of growth and competitiveness, tackling unemployment and the social consequences of the crisis, making national budgets sustainable, the restoration of normal lending to the economy and modernising public administrations. Each of these are things that our country would want to do and would be doing anyway. This framework provides a buttress to make sure we're doing this work and to support other countries in doing this work too. At the same time, the commission publishes their alert mechanism report and what's that? Well the alert mechanism report simply looks at whether developments or changes are taking place within national economies that are capable of dealing with the kind of crisis that we've been grappling with over the last five years. These very processes then are overseen by the relevant council bodies that consist of ministers elected by people through their governments and then the entire process is endorsed and looked at by the European Council which consists as you all know of heads of states. So what do we have again to take a step back from us? We've an overview by the commission, we've engagement between the commission and member states, overseen by ministers endorsed by heads of states. But within this process let's go back to the central insight here. Let's go back to the rationale of helping our citizens respond to huge changes and opportunities and all of these form integral elements of the European response to the changing world that I emphasised in my address. And how does this differ from what went before? How is it different for example from the stability and growth pact? Well in a number of important ways. This is the first time we've had a mechanism which provides for economic and budgetary coordination at EU level with a horizon that stretches beyond the immediate. The key points at its heart are stability, competitiveness and social inclusion. In order to respond to the challenges that I referred to earlier on Europe and its member states have to think long term. This is what the semester aims to do. Second this way of working does not focus just on budgetary decisions. It looks at the breadth of policy decisions that influence the opportunities open to people. Previous systems focused on fiscal reference points which were the consequences of policies. The semester aims to look at the very policies that produce these consequences. And third it is proactive. It looks at policies that will have consequences in the future not just the consequences of today and the decisions already made. And while it isn't the difference it is important to point out that the semester has very clear delineated and emphasised roles for both the Commission and the Council of Ministers. So thirdly the world of Ireland stands now in relation to all of this. Well we're now at the halfway point at the semester cycle. We're now in the middle of the fourth annual cycle of the European semester but now participation in it fully due to our excess from the bailout programme. We have completed and submitted to the Commission our national reform programme for 2014 publicly available on the website of the Department of the Tishock and the stability programme updates publicly available on the website of the Department of Finance. And these documents set out the economic and budgetary reforms we have undertaken and are continuing to implement. They informed the approach the Commission is taking in the development and proposing of country specific recommendations for Ireland in early June. Now these are documents, they're policy statements that really do repay study. I brought here with me the national reform programme which as I said is publicly available. It sets out the breadth of policies that the government is pursuing to ensure a job-rich recovery and to set Ireland on the path to sustainable prosperity with the high standard of quality public services. Inevitably given what I'm so deeply aware of as a constituency representative given the scale of our jobs crisis that we have and the one in particular facing young people the NRP in other words the national reform plan gives very detailed considerations to the range of measures adopted by the government to tackle unemployment and to provide the necessary skills to our workforce. And the main point I would emphasise in relation to this policy document it's the breadth of policy that's covered off within us. The stability programme updates sets out the government's macroeconomic and fiscal projections up to 2018. So in other words it provides the backdrop against which these policy measures will be taken and evaluated. This is a context and an analysis that has been independently endorsed by the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council. At the start of April I had the opportunity to present this draft plan to the Joint Committee on European Affairs in other words the national reform programme and Minister Newton presented the draft stability programme update to the Joint Committee on Finance and Public Expenditure before Easter. And I very much welcome these processes because they are essential. There are means of providing democratic scrutiny of the semester process and I know that one of the issues we will have to consider in the future is how to strengthen the role of national parliaments in the European semester process. And on the basis of all of these policy frameworks all of which are publicly available we are now engaged in bilateral in other words one-on-one engagement with the commission in Brussels and from this the commission will prepare draft country specific recommendations for each member states published in early June and then adopted by the European Council. So to conclude with is it all working? And I want to conclude with some questions and observations in relation to this. So first is it working? Well the truth is for a process of this breadth in the relatively early stages of its implementation it's probably just too early to say. It is clear itself that the process is undergoing evolution and change. For example it's had to accommodate developments in relation to the so called two pack and six pack proposals. What are they? The ways in which national budgets can be looked at in the earlier stages of their preparation. So this process continues to be refined and streamlined notably last year under the Irish presidency. What the commission does do is appoints to very substantial progress on fiscal consolidation across Europe. It appoints to improved market confidence in the sustainability of public finances leading to a lowering of borrowing rates excuse me and then it notes that member states have taken important steps in relation to the reform of labour markets. What the commission also notes is that much does remain to be done to improve the functioning and flexibility of market and services markets and implement structural reforms. However there is little doubt that the close scrutiny and peer review of each other's economies is now a fully accepted norm and this is a major and important and positive development. It is also crucial for all those of us who share the single currency. Secondly while the recent crisis was a spur to the development of this process it does not provide the full rationale for us. The pressures of the financial markets may have created the background for the semester process but as these pressures ebb this process is still vital. It is a european response to changes and opportunities for our people and third this is why peer review is a positive concept. It is simply a better way of navigating and making changes rather than dealing with the inevitable crises that the absence of these changes create. And fourth this process will lead to changes in productivity and so-called real economic performance that are vital necessities for the prospering of the euro in the future as opposed to just in inverted commas its mere survival. Thomas Mayer has argued that the end of cheap and indiscriminous credits pulled the rug from under European monetary union. So what the semester does is provide the solid foundations for not just the EU but for the euro to ensure that the euro will prosper in the future as it reflects positive improvements in member state economies. And finally there has been and there is some debate over the introduction of more binding and what's referred to as contractual arrangements to support the implementation of key reforms. Now while I welcome and I hope it's clear from this address here this morning all serious and constructive discussion of the effectiveness of the semester process we should be given the opportunity to implement the range of tools that we have already adopted and these are not at all inconsiderable before we move to introduce further measures. So let me conclude with where I've begun. On the nature and scale of change that Europe is facing the process that we are discussing this afternoon is part of the response to this huge change and of course like any human construction it isn't perfect it can be improved and it will be improved but globalization and all of these kinds of changes are not things imposed on us by some sinister other it is a natural consequence of our human willingness to trade and cooperate with each other and the semester is the same it is part of the solution not part of a problem and on that note I'll conclude and say I'm happy to take any questions. Thank you.