 Over to our man Teddy keg stat folks. We talked to Teddy every Wednesday at 40 past the hour here on the morning market kickoff You can reach Teddy every trading day at his website 4x dash trading dash unlock calm Teddy keg stat we got the first real crude pullback going on today in the last few days man. Good morning. Good morning, Tommy Yeah, the markets are pretty interesting with everything since what happened since we had our talk last week That's for sure. It's always a wild week, man You know, I had been looking for a little bit of a crude pullback at some degree But what do you think of the action of 102 right now if we could kick it off? Maybe with crude Maybe price levels you might be looking at in the in this futures But 102 right now quite a pullback from 116 and 123 even eight days ago Yeah, actually it's quite a sell-off and a very short amount of time So I I wouldn't read too much into this slide. I would think that this is probably where it's bottoming out I don't maybe we may see a little bit more pressure I don't think it's very sustainable on the long term and another thing that we are kind of noticing I looked at it as the divergence between gasoline futures and oil futures So gasoline is not Breaking like crude oil is so you're not gonna see the pumps drop, you know, like especially we've had a $22 sell-off in just a period of like, you know, six days, you know I mean the pumps have come back a little bit, but they're not coming that much back You know, so because if you look at gasoline futures, they're not retrait They're definitely hitting new lows too, but not even that remotely as severely of a slide, you know So I think you have to kind of watch how the gasoline futures work, too If there's not follow-through to the downside then I think crude's pretty much going to start to find a bottom and probably get a bounce You know, so I think it's just an overzealous Sell-off right now. I mean the reality is is that we have supply issues demand I mean, you have a lot of news driven stuff because all of a sudden the news and the Fed is starting to talk about Recession when we were talking about a recession coming to hit us already six seven months ago, you know So that's just finally getting the news, you know speak if you will So I think they're getting the market jitters from that one, you know Like buying bonds because of what's going on in the short run But you're still coming off a brand-new lower low in the Treasury bond market, you know So and the big thing is too is if we we would still need another like three-handle rally to get above 130 130803 that would take out the last swing lower swing high in the bonds We still have a little ways to go, you know now with yeah with the Fed speak Fed chairman speaking today and tomorrow remember that last week He came up with follow-through after the on the the initial Three-point three-quarter point rate hike saying that there's aggressively going after this Well, unless he's gonna all of a sudden change his tomb and say like oh, we're well, you're not gonna start cutting rates What are you gonna do is say you're gonna stop raising rates to see how things now pan out? Well, that would be a big flip-flop in your in your decision process, especially when he shocked the market saying yeah screw you I'm gonna keep raising really aggressively no matter what so I don't think he can change his tone And if he does that really gives us credibility, you know, it turns it to Swiss cheese, you know as far as what's he gonna do in the future? You know, so I think that right now, you know interest rates. They're bouncing, you know So it's it's it's normal to come off the low You know with profit-taking, you know, especially with this volatility So I wouldn't read too much into it, you know and as far as with the dollar, too We had a little bit of divergence is getting a little dicey. So remember last week when we talked I told you higher how I reversed and was I got short the yen the US dollar Swiss What happened in the in the two days since we spoke last week that was such a drop, you know And that came just down to where we had found support just a few weeks earlier, you know So now I'm back on that on the on the dollar rally mode if you look at the dollar index It's wedging, you know, whereas you've had some spiking, you know A little strength and corrections and some of the other markets the Euro really hasn't bounced the pound really hasn't bounced You know the major the major move that you had really so far was in the US dollar Swiss, you know so I would key off of that one because As race right now right now they're buying the bonds, you know It's the invoke thing to do because of the news play How long is the market going to support that market's gonna do what the market's going to do, you know So if it's if it's only in a news driven rally going on right now I would say that you're gonna see the dollar start to rally again very soon because this is just a profit-taking move It's not sustainable Yeah, I mean I had a chart I was jumping through the charts as you were kind of jumping around there and the 30 year I think yeah, it's quite a bounce right in terms of from 131 on last Thursday to 135 But man, I put this thing on a quick daily and you were trading at 160 Just over three months ago. So you treat down 30 full points in the 30 or just a remarkable movement In the bonds in the notes, of course, and yeah jump into the yen real quick So I want to get to this one you referenced it Excuse me, let me just go jump on to the chart where we come on Stay there we go So yes to get exactly where we were those are what I would pull up on Wednesday You're trading about 134 and change 135 when we talked to you last week You dive all the way down to 131 48 on Thursday And now we've actually gotten just slightly back above that level to 135 86 New highs yesterday. Yeah, and so you're looking for bearish action there and the yen continuing with that sell-off Even even with the bounce to to kind of new recent highs or where are you there? No, now like I said last week I for the dollar and with that volatility in the Swiss that made me when they hit that that one was so oversold And then I reversed yours again. So now I'm long US dollar Swiss long US dollar yen I'm lying which yesterday. I got I was on a short squeeze a little bit and that's now I'm finally long the yen again I'm short. I'm excuse me. I am Short the euro US dollars short the pound dollar short the Aussie US dollars short the New Zealand dollar US dollars So, you know, yeah, I'm riding. I'm looking right now for a dollar bounce I think that as the index is wedging because of the divergence that's happened in the profit-taking moves I mean the Swiss was the one that was the most volatile, you know, but markets go out They come in, you know, so I think that if you look at how support held a few weeks ago This was is another good support area. And if that is the case, we're going back to parity now Probably parity quickly with the US dollar Swiss, especially if the interest rate market turns, you know So I think you probably have another three basis handles and the bonds before you're going to run out of gas You know because that 138 level would be key, you know, so if that's if we can stretch it up there I would say that probably tomorrow is when you're going to see after the Fed The chairman is done squawking around and questioning that that's when all of a sudden you're going to see the trade come back And the dollar is going to swing back interest rates are going to start going up again And that's going to definitely drive the other currencies down against the dollar And where do you like let's say and this is like the million dollar question, of course So you're looking for what that be higher yields, right? You're going to get the bond to trade lower in price After maybe you get the rise to 138 So you see a challenging that 131 low and going below that level. Where do you see like maybe that 10 year right because it's it's a nice little Pullback in terms of yield, but we've risen so much. We started the year off at 1.5 percent We're sitting at 3.15 now in the 10 year. We were up to almost 3.5 We got about 30 seconds on the 10 year just because that's what people follow most What are you looking for in like the next few months for the 10 year as we're at 3.15 right now? You want a number so I'll give you that number right or range. I know I want everything. I want it all I know I know all right for the 10 year I see it trading down around 108 to 105 as far as the handle basis in the next couple of months If not by the end of the summer Perfect 108 to 105 we're sitting right now 117 we had been as low as 114. Yeah higher rates are coming man Teddy, thank you so much for taking the nine minutes with us, man We appreciate the education as always and we'll talk to you next week Thanks, Teddy. Take care. Stay tuned folks. We'll be right back to finish up the show