 Good afternoon everyone. Welcome to this afternoon's briefing that is being brought to you once again by the Environmental and Energy Study Institute EESI and also the Novum Group My name is Carol Werner, and I'm the executive director of the Environmental and Energy Study Institute. This afternoon's briefing is entitled Warning Signs A new report outlines the impacts of proposed budget cuts to climate and environmental research So the question is why do we care about this? What's the significance of this? The report that has been done by the Novum Group helps bring to all of us extremely important information about proposed budget cuts that were proposed last year with regard to fiscal 2018 Those same budget cuts many of which are proposed for this year's budget for fiscal 2019 are continuing there is a Significant large discussion among policymakers about what should the budget look like why what's important and I think that it is very incumbent upon all of us to really look carefully at this important report So that we can better fully understand what really is at stake Why do we care about environmental climate science? Why do we care about getting the facts straight? What are the facts and what kinds of impacts does this have upon all of us? Upon our lives today upon the agencies that it impacts upon all of their constituencies users of data of Scientific research and indeed the impacts that we see up on What goes forward in terms of all of those students who are training in today's colleges and universities in terms of the important continuum of research that has Extraordinary impacts upon all of us. I should also say that the environmental and energy study Institute is particularly Concerned because as we do all of our briefings for policymakers We always remember that this organization was formed back in the mid 80s by a bipartisan congressional caucus It was very concerned about energy and environmental issues how we could learn more to Create a better informed policy discussion and how we could build relationships and networks Across all sectors in the pursuit of finding solutions to very important energy and Environmental problems that we're confronting our country But that also means issues that confront the world because we all are very interconnected one of the things that I found in terms of looking at the report and as you will see in terms of looking at even the outline these the Table of contents in this report are all of the agencies that are affected and What's critical is that we cannot approach anything in terms of a silo It's very important to understand the important role that each of these 13 agencies that are specifically looked at the role that they play and how Incumbent it is up on those employees all of the research all of the R&D that they fund that the inner Relationships that the interconnectedness of all of this be understood and that and that indeed Be seen as the very complementary work That it indeed is if we are going to get Science right if we are going to get our facts right if we are really going to make the kind of difference that we need to make so I am first going to turn to Dr. Ari Petrinos who is the chief scientist? And direct for research of the Novum group the Novum group Is the group that put together this important? study And the Novum group in terms of putting together this report drew upon the expertise of Scientists of researchers that had worked in both Republican and Democratic Administrations, so there is first rate work that has been done as well as work by people who've been leaders in high high level and and very Across the board research in the federal government The Novum group is a non-profit Scientific research organization that has been deeply committed to its role as an independent Non-advocacy source of data to provide clear options to the most urgent problems facing humanity Dr. Petrinos as I said is the chief scientist for Novum but prior to Prior to going to Novum. He had He had spent 20 years In the in the government at the Department of Energy where he directed biological and environmental research at DOE Including very important Contributions to the US global change research program as well as the human genome project. He has Been on the the staff has worked with three of our very well-known important national laboratories and during night During 2016 dr. Petrinos was also a senior advisor to then secretary of energy Ernie Moniz for biomedical Applications where he also worked on the joint efforts of DOE with the Nance National Cancer Institute and the Department of Veterans Administration All right. Thank you Carol and good afternoon everyone And thank you for braving this arctic weather to be with us today And and by the way, maybe I shouldn't say that because the Arctic is probably enjoying much milder temperatures than we have been special thanks to the environmental and energy study Institute and to Omri Laporte for helping us also put this together As you's heard from Carol I'm the chief scientist of the Novum group as well as the director for research at Novum We as Novum have been around since 2008 and As Carol has told you we are not for-profit group Which we try and also not to advocate Although sometimes our passions get away from us and we do advocate and and maybe sometimes advocacy is not a bad thing We conduct and publish studies That are science-based But also are important both nationally and internationally Created in 2008. It's it is based at the Cavalry Institute for theoretical physics at the University of California in Santa Barbara there is a This slide the one slide that we have which is another way of describing it is To have as its charter to use an assembly of scientists to break down Complex scientific issues in such a way as to render them comprehensible to non-scientists We want to say I don't know how many of you are familiar with the Jason group which is a a group of academics and And other scientists that convene once a year in San Diego and have conducted over the years many studies on behalf of the Department of Defense the intelligence community and since I became involved also for the Department of Energy It was originally primarily just physicists and engineers and mathematicians, but again Perhaps with with my help. It has also entrained biologists and environmental scientists So one of our members of the advisory committee that we have has called the Novium efforts as Jason for the masses. I have been involved as a participant scientist in the Novium group since 2009 when we launched one of the studies that was in geoengineering for climate change mitigation and This was one of the first efforts along those along those lines and it focused primarily on the use of omitting sulphate aerosols in the stratosphere to change the albedo of the earth we covered both scientific issues engineering issues as well as Non-intended consequences, which has always been something of important since that time there have been many studies including studies by the National Academy of Sciences We don't advocate that geoengineering something we should be doing but I think it's important that we do the research in case somebody else does it so that we are aware of the possible consequences of such an action that I Would I would condemn personally at least at this stage Another another study that was conducted was dealing with methane leak leakages in the in the US Which is something that became quite appropriate and relevant in Final couple a couple of years of the Obama administration when we had a serious methane leakage problem in Southern, California Another one of the studies that received a lot of attention and had significant impact was one about the earth's surface temperature trends That was something contested during the debates about climate change and in fact that particular study It ended up pretty much Validating the prevailing scientific consensus about the impacts of climate change on the average global surface temperatures And there were actually congressional hearings along those lines and some of the scientists involved in that particular study testified Something else that was not Along those usual lines that Novim has done in the past is the development of a software package To probe employee pension scenarios This is another another acute problem that many of our cities In this country are facing. It's a software package that allows policy makers mayors and their staff to examine possible scenarios to deal with the problem of the pension We hope to make that available this year for broad dissemination and application Ongoing another effort is an IPCC the in governmental panel on climate change Education on climate issues and that's done in In cooperation and in collaboration with the National Geographic Also currently is the awards of the Jane Noble Awards for science writing another issue that has become so important in terms of communicating scientific results To policy makers and the general public Since I became chief scientist with the help of the advisory committee that we set up The first study we launched was one about the future of nuclear energy in this country We called it American nuclear energy at the crossroads because we are truly with respect to nuclear energy at the crossroads and we can go left and totally Abandoned nuclear energy or we can perhaps be more sensible and not do that and Many of the reasons why we think Should be that way in terms of going right is very much articulated and Included in the report that we published that is available online at the Novim website The last study that we did is the study is the study that is on our agenda today and I'm Very very pleased to have K. Koizumi be the presenter of those results as you've heard from Carol We were a very successful in convening a group of individuals who had really deep An extensive knowledge of the issues that would be presented in this report It's something as you perhaps Summised already from what Carol said something that's very near and dear to my heart because of the long involvement as a founder of the US Global Change Research Program Public law 101 606. I still remember that of 1990 and You'll get the details from K and we will be available also for questions afterwards Like you've heard also from Carol our plan is always when we do studies of this kind to be very very Non-advocacy not to employ not advocacy and like I like to say we'd like to do this particular analysis in a very Dispassionate way so that it can be used By policymaker in terms of making decisions about the future of many of these important programs That have been in effect for many years and have made major contributions to our understanding About environmental and climate issues So thank you very much Thanks very much for those opening comments and to explain about the wealth of information and And studies that are available through Novam and through the website and all of the research that has been pulled together I now want to turn to our next presenter who has made major contribution to this whole report and He brings a wealth of experience and Mr. K. Koizumi is Currently senior advisor at the American Association for the advancement of science triple a s as many of us often refer to it and K had joined the office of science and technology policy a White House agency back in 2009 where he was the assistant director for federal research and development as part of the technology and and Industry Council and Which is an important? council of the Office of Science and Technology Policy that White House office was deeply involved in terms of working with people across all of the agencies in terms of trying to coordinate understand research and scientific needs technology needs And to really look at things in a holistic fashion In In addition Before joining OSTP in 2009 as I mentioned K had served as the director of the RMD budget and policy program at triple a s So he brings a wealth of information in deep understanding with regard to understanding budgets their impact upon policy and What that means for the kinds of analysis that needs to be done in terms of putting together budgets and also looking at their impacts and following all of that through so I We will now really have K walk us through this report what its key findings are the implications of those and following his Presentation of this study. We will open it up for your questions. Thank you. Okay Well, thank you and hello There we are good We're here today and thanks to Novam and ESI for allowing us to be here today We are here today because the president's 2018 and 2019 budget proposed Significant reductions to many climate and environment related research and development programs So Congress is still deliberating maybe as we speak on 2018 appropriations and that's one reason that we are here in Washington DC today To talk about the report. We are also here because the 2019 budget proposal, which was released a few weeks ago Follows a remarkably similar course for climate and environment R&D as the core set in the 2018 proposal So this report we think is relevant for both 2018 funding and for 2019 funding So I am K. Koizumi And I'm a member of the barter bipartisan team that authored this report So I'm here because I'm a longtime budget watcher for science funding at AAAS as you heard And I also worked at OSTP until well early 2017 I have to say that I'm involved in this report in my personal capacity and not representing AAAS That's the disclaimer that I picked up while I was in the federal government that I have to thank you So this report is intended to inform policymakers in Congress and the executive branch the scientific community and the general public of the risks to America's Economic societal and environmental security and leadership if the environment and climate R&D cuts proposed in the 2018 budget and the 2019 budget become a reality So this November report, which you have hard copies of I hope It finds that federally sponsored climate and environment R&D or for short CER and D the R&D policy and operational Programs that we've gathered together in this report are critical to climate environment observations And they are also critical to international programs supporting climate and environment efforts globally These programs total 7.9 billion dollars in the administration's 2018 budget And that is a 2.0 billion or 21 percent cut from the fiscal year 2017 funding level me used to say that is a fairly dramatic cut in in budgetary terms You know, we found that CER and D described in the report spans 13 federal departments and independent agencies and all but two of those agencies the Department of Defense And the Smithsonian would see dramatic cuts in their CER and D funding in this 2018 budget We haven't formally done the analysis on the 2019 budget But the 2019 budget would have a higher total But is still likely to be a dramatic cut of greater than 10 percent to these programs So my colleagues and I participated in this project because we care deeply about these C&R and D investments and the benefit They bring to the American people some of us have been working on these programs working with these programs for a long time in in some cases decades Climate and environment research and development play an important role in our ability to address the problems We face as a nation and remain a vibrant nation in the 21st century through its investments in research observations modeling Assessments workforce development and working effectively with other nations So those are the themes that we tried to to lay out in this report So I presented the budget table the budget table those are numbers Those are the kind of numbers that I'm used to presenting but most of what I'm talking about today is not about the numbers It's about the impact of those investments and what they mean for the nation So the US government's investments in CRD played an important role in our nation's ability to address many problems Including reliable and economical access to safe food water and energy Resiliency to natural and human hazards that threaten our health and national of security and Avoiding negative impacts on the environment while maintaining a vibrant economy Funding cuts of the magnitude proposed in the 2018 and 2019 budgets would threaten our ability to meet these challenges The proposed cuts to federal CERND would if they become law in 2018 appropriations have devastating impacts on US capabilities and the same is true for the 2019 budget cuts becoming law in 2019 appropriation So the report finds that the proposed cuts would number one Dismantle programs to provide the scientific foundation for agencies to protect effectively the health economic prosperity and safety of the American people To they will break the continuity and integrity of long-standing and future Observations and research infrastructure needed for climate and environment modeling Three they would undermine our ability to detect and understand critical climate and environment trends and influences on natural resources For they would reduce our ability to train the next generation of scientists Resource managers and decision-makers who can work together to translate science into effective climate and environment policies and approaches and Five they would diminish the nation's ability to meet legal and international climate and environment commitments so these five things that I Layed out map on to the five themes of the report that you have in your hands and The report makes clear that these impacts would reverberate throughout American society My colleagues and I have a group these The impact of this 21% cut to federal CRD into these five themes and we've labeled them as investment in capacity observations and modeling adaptation assessments workforce and international commitments, so let me talk about each of them in turn Let me start with investment in capacity First the proposed cuts represent a dramatic loss of investment in capacity to conduct CERD They undermine the scientific Foundation for agencies to protect effectively the health economic prosperity and safety of Americans The cuts being proposed would result in a significant reduction in the number size and duration of CERD program awards such as grants and contracts in both the intramural And the extramural R&D operations of the federal government For example Reductions in the NSF budget will result in approximately 800 fewer awards in climate and environment R&D Adversely impacting the careers of an estimated 2,500 people and a reduction of nearly 50% to the academic research fleet By 2030 absent further investment Second the proposed cuts to EPA that are outlined in support would eliminate entirely EPA support to universities and industry for all disciplines not just the CERD disciplines Third for NIH the 2018 budget would reduce the number of new National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences or NIEHS research awards to universities by 20% Reduce the average size of a new NIEHS research award by 20% Reduce the success rates for all new NIH awards from 18% in 2016 to 14% and Reduce intramural or NIH conducted NIH EHS research by at least 20% These cuts along with steep cuts to NOAA and US Geological Survey research Combined with resulting dramatic reduction of federal support for environmental health sciences research Including research to improve our understanding of hazardous contaminants that are dangerous to humans You know if sustained these reductions will result in the loss of new knowledge The possible closure of federal labs and academic centers and a decline in the education and training of the next generation of environmental scientists Second we're in danger of losing climate and environmental observations and modeling We're in danger of breaking the continuity and integrity of long-standing and future Observations and the research infrastructure needed to enable climate and environment modeling long-term continuous and consistent observation records have been a hallmark of US investments for decades and These observations are dependent on a variety of research observing networks and facilities including satellites ocean buoys long-term ecological research Stream gauge and groundwater monitoring the academic research fleet marine laboratories and field stations Most of these networks and facilities are being stressed significantly by the 2018 budget proposals and they are repeated in the 2019 budget For example for key NASA climate environment satellite missions will be terminated in the 2018 and the 2019 budgets These missions are part of a coordinated approach for initiating and enabling long-term global observations of the land surface The biosphere atmosphere and oceans and they provide the continuity Continuation of key measurements that are needed for understanding what's happening to our planet For NOAA the 2018 budget would terminate several surface and marine observations carried out by the National Weather Service Including the tsunami warning system and the mid-range weather outlook Again, these are important data that we need to understand what's happening to the planet right now For the Department of Energy cuts to climate and integrated assessment modeling that range from 58 percent To complete program termination will slow progress toward using computers for models with greater certainty of predictions and greater prediction capabilities at regional scales and That's precisely the type of information that can inform planning and adaptation Strategies at the state level and the local level Although funding for most of the Department of Energy's Office of Science was restored in the 2019 budget the cuts to these programs are impeded in the 2019 budget So let me talk about adaptation and assessments in adaptation and assessments these proposed cuts threaten to undermine our ability to detect and understand Critical climate and environment trends and influences on natural resources The loss of these critical measurements will limit the ability of governments Businesses and citizens to improve their decision-making processes for both short and long-term environmental issues These types of global data are critical for addressing societal challenges in food water and energy security They inform decisions on how best to mitigate and adapt to the effects of environmental change for the general well-being of society For example, NOAA provides competitive funding to assist communities in their efforts to strengthen their resilience in the face of severe weather and other environmental changes Many of these efforts will be weakened by the 2018 and 2019 budget proposals Second energy and water are independent interdependent energy use is water-intensive and water treatment and delivery is energy-intensive DOE has been a leader in integrated assessments of this energy water nexus Using data modeling and analysis to improve understanding and to inform decision-making About energy and water for a broad range of users and of multiple scales In the 2018 budget the DOE energy water nexus program is being cut by 87 percent and Put on the path determination by the end of this fiscal year That would reduce our national capacity to prepare for and meet coming increased demands for food energy and water third the Information modeling and tools that are produced by the US Geological Survey are used by the government and the private sector to support adaptive management strategies such as managing forests during severe droughts Anticipating changes in permafrost glaciers and wildlife patterns in the Arctic and understanding flood-related risk The cuts to USGS programs will severely impact our ability to adapt and respond to our changing environment including responding to extreme weather events and USGS is one example of the 2019 budget proposing even steeper cuts than those in the 2018 budget So fourth The workforce these cuts will threaten our ability to train the next generation of Scientists resource managers and decision-makers who can work together to translate science into effective climate environment policies and approaches Federal research funding fuels our ability to conduct important research But also educate and train the next generation of scientists and engineers Reduced academic research funding will have a short-term impact on individual projects But will have a longer-term impact on the technical workforce Students decisions to follow a career path are impacted by their perceptions of future funding and support of the field or industry If proposed reductions in R&D funding in the climate and environment agencies are implemented fewer Undergraduates will have the opportunity to gain hands-on research experience that have been shown to prepare them for scientific careers As I said earlier cuts to NSF Yeah, in the CRD portfolio will reduce support for up to 2,500 people including senior scientists But also postdoctoral students graduate and undergraduate students and research technicians Although these cuts are less severe in the 2019 budget There are still projections of fewer people being supported by NSF in the 2019 budget Now these workforce cuts could happen as some of the greatest economic competitors of the United States are moving aggressively into the green economy for example and are putting into place strategies to Take over renewable energy clean energy industries So let me turn now to the fifth theme in the report Which is that the 2018 and 2019 budgets would diminish our nation's ability to meet legal and international climate and environment commitments First of all the Department of State and US Agency for international development Will be impacted by the largest cut in both dollars and percentage of all the climate environment programs in this report You will see on the budget table that for these agencies combined. It's an 87 percent proposed cut There's not much left after an 87 percent cut While state and USAID don't fund CERND programs per se They do support Diplomatic and financial mechanisms to help influence shape and implement international CE policies and agreements The proposed DOA Department of State USAID reductions and terminations Threatened the nation's ability to meet these legal and international climate commitments Many of which have resulted from more than 20 years of US leadership and negotiations with other nations around the world Second reductions to these key NASA satellite programs that I mentioned earlier will also impact ongoing international commitments the United States has with other nations on Climate and environment observational systems open sharing of data resulting from these satellite missions and The ability to monitor key measurements that are critical parts of international climate and environment agreements Enforcing and monitoring compliance with these international agreements often depends on the satellite data Such as the satellite data provided by NASA satellites and third The EPA also has a range of CERND efforts supporting international agreements that are targeted for reductions or for terminations The proposed 2018 budget would as a start reduce support for clean air allowance trading programs Second all but eliminate the US greenhouse gas reporting program third Diminish EPA's capacity to prepare the statutorily mandated annual inventory of US gas greenhouse gas emissions and sink Four and several environmental Partnership programs and fifth eliminate US government funding for the multilateral fund for the implementation of the Montreal port of protocol Which is on step transphheric ozone Let me also add that funding reductions would reduce these agencies support for the interagency US global change research program This will hinder the nation's ability to contribute to major international negotiations regarding climate change And the necessary and appropriate adaptation measures that must be undertaken So these are some of the important capabilities that are at stake as Congress the American people and the executive branch debate Final 2018 funding for the US government before moving on to 2019 funding You know as we talked today somewhere in this building or across the street We we know that Congress is trying to wrap up the 2018 appropriations And we know that Congress so far has signaled a reluctance to go along with many of these proposed cuts As it tries to finalize 2018 appropriations The draft appropriations bills from the House and the Senate have in many cases rejected the proposed cuts but in the report we express concern that as Congress looks to wrap up these 2018 appropriations some of the proposed cuts could be sustained The report also warns that the administration's 2019 budget contains many of the same cuts as those proposed for 2018 Therefore the significant reductions to the CNRD program could very well happen in 2019 even if the cuts are avoided in next week I hope it's next week next week's 2018 omnibus appropriations bill So my colleagues and I intend to keep following this important portfolio programs as we move from budget year to budget year So thank you for listening today This report is going out to decision decision makers the scientific community the American people congressional staff Anyone who will listen so they can understand what's at stake right now from the decisions Congress is Making I think they're making it this week With 2018 funding of climate and environment R&D and also what's at stake from decisions the administration and Congress are going to make in 2019 and years to come So here are the warning signs and at stake we see we see is nothing less than Americans economic societal and environmental security and leadership Because all of these depend on our ability to investigate and understand our planet and our environment So thank you very much for listening to this report And I'm very happy to take questions on behalf of myself and the author team. Thank you Thanks so very much K for for walking us through and explaining The the conclusions and those extremely important messages I know so many times as I think about this and I really do encourage you all to let others know about this important report and To make sure that you really do read it yourself but so many times I Is I think about projected cuts if a program disappears if an area of research disappears You can't just put it back all that easily two years later Whatever because you've really interrupted something very important and you can't just do that and I know that from talking to people to listening to people over the last 25 years in terms of thinking about what happens to budgets and policy and research a Couple other things that as you were talking about some of these important budgets in terms of thinking about NASA and NOAA and the US Geological Survey the Department of Energy etc that that we have seen so many times that that as We look at So many things that are going on now with more and more extreme weather events We are hearing from local and state government officials We are hearing from them particularly through a whole series of Resilience forms that EES I has been putting together over the last couple of years We are hearing very clearly from them how important the tools and the information are that are coming from these very agencies from these 13 agencies that are part of the US Change Global Research Program and that they frankly depend upon so much of this data and Access to researchers in order to do their own planning locally in terms of thinking about flood zones thinking about how to do adaptation planning What kinds of warnings for their citizens etc. So that has been a profound impact in terms of my hearing directly from people About that and the third thing I would just mention For all of us to remember is that the government accountability office GAO has for the last several years been putting climate at Very high on their risk factors in terms of its significance as a threat to federal facilities the need to address those kinds of issues posed by climate change and how we deal with it and Because it does have a big impact upon our infrastructure at the federal level in terms of what we're seeing as well as at the state and local level and and in fact We hope to bring in folks from GAO to really talk about their concern about this threat to the US economy and to Federal infrastructure as well So let us now open it up for any questions comments that you may have and if you could just wait for the microphone if you've got a question Okay, we'll start here. Hi I'm Elizabeth McGowan. I write for the energy news network and I wanted to focus on workforce If you could talk about a lot of people either the federal government when I Interview people who work there. It's it's sort of a calling. It's a little different species a person who goes to work there and When if these signals are being sent that we don't have time or money for you What are the options for aspiring? Scientists, where else do they do? Do they go overseas industry academia? What could you talk a little about that? Yes, happy to so that gives me a chance to talk about one part of the report where we try to look at the workforce impacts and you know, we go to organizations like the American Geosciences Institute which has Does workforce surveys and they already are predicting a shortage of 135,000 geoscientists by 2022 and The geoscientists that may go missing are explorations geophysicists hydrologists petroleum geologists and economic geologists for example Now most of these Professionals are working in the private sector such as for all companies state agent and state government state agencies Etc, but we find that of course many of them get their training through our public and private Universities through graduate programs that are substantially funded by these research agencies that I'm talking about Most of them have gone through graduate school because they were had a fellowship that was paid in part by the National Science Foundation They were on a research project through their professor who was funded by the US Geological Survey of the Environmental Protection Agency or they also did postdoctoral postdocs at Environmental Protection Agency laboratories, etc. So that's why even for Scientists who will go on to careers in private industry that federal investment is so crucial For to making sure that they have the opportunity to contribute either in the private or the public sector My first question would have been what to do Despite what GAO or in addition to what GAO is Suggesting at least until last year the Department of Defense was stressing the importance of the potential climate change, and I don't know if that's still are they saw I didn't know if that had Might have changed but just with regard to the answer the last question It would be interesting to quantify the workforce. That's not professional not well educated one of the Reasons to the extent that it's been successful in my local jurisdiction advocating for state Legislation is that there are a potential of jobs for people who won't be graduate students who Refined their knowledge gain in public in through public the University. So if you could speak to that would be interested I'm not sure what there is to add Because what first of all the what to do That's up to all of us. That's up to you. That's up to all of us And so I'm not crazy. There's anything there But in terms of the broader workforce that is a direction that we could have taken We well for a couple of reasons we didn't but you're right that many of the industries That depend on this federally-supported CA are the enterprise our industries that employ a Vast number and vast diversity of people if you take it just to look at it I was used extending my geologists example of course oil companies Fracking the fracking technologies that make possible many skilled and unskilled jobs have at their base Federal investments in these types of programs in understanding geology understanding, you know The impact of water on on rocks and simple as that but out of that comes, you know a Basis well one of the few areas in in which US industry has made great strides and has Really moved the needle on the composition of our energy sources and with that of course comes thousands of jobs Both for these geology site talked about earlier, but also oil rig workers people who work in the field of Fracking sites, so that's the kind of example I think of the broader impact of these climate and environmental research and development programs beyond just the Scientific and engineering workforce that we talked about primarily in this report. Thank you very much Menace Michael's were and I'm at resources for the future. I I understand that the General tendencies to look at the physical and the biological sciences in terms of the science R&D investments But I'm also very interested in the decision sciences and research and investment in Economics policymaking and other areas where the federal agency budgets invest in a lot of R&D that is carried out by Universities think tanks etc. Could you talk a little bit more about the the social sciences impacts of these R&D cuts if you can Disaggregate that a little bit Thank you as a social scientist. I'm going to enjoy this question Thank you for the opportunity. Well, and you're right that you know the social and behavioral and economic sciences aren't important part of this conversation They are not well captured in the purview of this report But certainly these investments in the C R&D area are You know supported and complemented by a lot of agency investments in the social sciences I mean of course at the Department of Interior Department of Interior as of a few years ago was making investments in decision science and you're creating a new Occupational category of decision decision sciences and one of the things that I was you know working on at OSTP was expanding the Availability of decision science and other social science talent to aid, you know physical and natural science agencies Because they are important because all of these R&D insights that are gained from the investments we talk about in this report have an audience and a lot of the audience is decision-making by these federal agencies and There is a there's an emerging science around how you best incorporate scientific information into making decisions that Natural resources agencies have to make as a matter of course I mean every week there is some decision to be made about you know listing or delisting an endangered species or You know allowing or not allowing logging or natural resource extraction in a certain part of a public land and so the agencies are finding the value in integrating social sciences and the natural sciences and Well, what we can say from the report is that one part of that the physical science base of that is being endangered by the report and Although I have not we haven't done An analysis of the social science consequence of that. I'm a little bit afraid to maybe that's the next project As one of the funders of the US School will change research program I have to do a mea culpa I and many of my colleagues in the early days of the program were almost entirely focused on the physical and chemical aspects of climate change and Through the last 20 years plus We've been humbled by our realization that we were quite wrong very wrong in fact that we neglected it And I think in the in the most recent years we have made efforts to make up for the mistakes we made in the early part and things like the The the program within the Department of Energy that deals with integrated assessments perhaps was one example where We tried to make amends in some way. It's still in my opinion not enough It's certainly one area of science that gets neglected. It's not just In the environmental and the climate programs, but it's also in biology and medicine quite frankly And I think we need to be very a lot more sensitive about the need to invest in the social sciences for many of these programs Thank you for asking it. I'm just traveled by what seemed to be some contradictions You've written this report in the context of climate change and yet you're seem to be supporting fossil fuels as our source of energy when you say fracking is an indication of progress Technologically and I've seen sound evidence of widespread contamination of groundwater from fracking especially in Pennsylvania Nuclear energy Jacuzzo has put together a compelling data Comparing the amount of Sun and how much energy we would derive from it versus What a nuclear energy would be able to provide in addition to the enormous costs of? Nuclear plant and the harms from the radiation that is admitted 24-7 in addition to the spent fuel issues So I'm hoping that your report which I look forward to reading Has additional or at least a greater emphasis on renewables. Can you maybe elaborate on that, please? Well, I think I know what more can I say except let me know what you think about the report Let me your comments. Thank you for your comments and Next question Let me add a little bit, you know the the issue of fracking is something that's happening as we speak And whether we take a position on this we may have very little influence in whether fracking continues or not but what Kay has described is we need to have that ability we need to have the science and The research in order to ascertain whether there is damage as you've described So it's not like we are we are endorsing or Advocating continuation of fracking. We are rather neutral on it We just want to make sure the scientific tools is there are there so that we know whether there is long-term Or even short-term damage and with respect to the nuclear energy Question that you raised read our report because yes, you you have you make some good points about that But there are also other issues that may not be at least initially very obvious why we need to have a Hand in the nuclear industry business. So read the report over here first My name is Joe. He's here. I'm with the Energy Futures Initiative and Kay I'm wondering if you could this may be taking it a little bit beyond where your report left off, but It appears that Congress will restore a number of these funding cuts in the current appropriations cycle if if and when they ever get to a final omnibus bill and But nonetheless, I'm wondering just the fact that the Uncertainty that's been created by the proposals whether you see that having already seeing and having Adverse impacts on these programs and you think that this continual What what may be a kind of a yo-yo cycle that may continue for the next couple years. Do you think that in and of itself? We'll have some adverse impacts here You're right that it's outside the report, but I think the short answer is yes, it's having an impact I mean, I don't know how many of us have spent time, you know in the executor branch working there But you get it cannot help but have an impact to have your program the one you're working on be proposed for elimination I mean that is demoralizing even if at the end of the day or at the end of the month Appropriations are restored so that this has an impact on people's careers on on agencies operations and of course on the long-term nature of both people's careers and the and the protection of climate environment R&D programs and The the research results that depend on sustained reliable federal funding. So yes, I mean it's having an impact And that's one of the things I'm afraid of The other thing I'm afraid of with Once again, I hope next week's omnibus is that because you know these proposed cuts as I described them are spread out over 13 different federal agencies and you know numerous programs, which is why this report is so thick I Am nervous that You know Congress will not save them all And there will be damage that will be sustained within the 2018 appropriations and that's going to compound I think the damage that has already been done with this as you describe it the yo-yo effect of Now it's been you know 10 months since the detailed budget for 2018 came out So that's 10 months of uncertainty in you know federal scientists and other Government employees careers. It's 10 months of uncertainty at the program level of whether they'll even be around After next week So, you know, I do worry about that and it might well if there is a follow-up report I think we're going to want to at least dig into some examples of what This budget cycle and the next budget cycle have meant for this portfolio at the just the this agony of the last 10 months that K described is discouraging many students that are now undergraduates and are thinking about graduate careers picking sort of Topics for their dissertations and so on I know already that there are many individuals who have decided for alternative careers Alternative paths, and that's a loss that may have long-term impacts I would also just mention that again just from sort of very ad hoc anecdotal Experience that in terms of any number of people who have left federal agencies Have done so because of concerns about what was happening in terms of Projected cuts or elimination of program and I also know of any number of people who've been recruited to agencies overseas Because of the uncertainty of of what was going to happen with regard to continued budgets and and funding here and one of the things that over the years that I've also observed is that when you lose a lot of senior people or you know people at at mid levels in agencies or in terms of thinking about academia that You lose so much institutional history and knowledge that is really difficult to Replace and that that is a substantial loss that we just need to be aware of because it really does have an Impact in terms of thinking about how we how we carry on and and really make the most of What we can do with with budget dollars and how those dollars are invested so we a Couple other questions. Okay a question here and then over here And answering the question what to do. I wasn't expecting you or ESI to say this is our program Certainly advocacy groups for CSI have to protect themselves and can't initiate a specific political program But what to do is a question for all of us. I agree Whatever resistance this Congress might provide in the next few weeks with regard to 18 or in the near future with regard to 19 Nonetheless the proposals have been made and the question what to do about a sense emanating from Executive leadership That these kinds of cuts are a reasonable thing to do. I mean who's to say that your analysis is not a fake analysis There's a disregard even a disdain for knowledge that has crept into our National psyche and I the question what to do is as much about that as it is this specific budget year's proposals Which are not good or next year's which are not good I Wasn't I look forward to a larger discussion where people can actually suggest programmatically what to do that is a larger discussion and So I go let that hang there as this question for all of us I mean I will say I think my involvement in this report shows that you know my responses We continue to provide knowledge and that's why you know I was interested in being involved in this report because the budget table I went over quickly That's my my area right of providing the budget table but most of the discussion was about I Hope it's new knowledge or knowledge that is being research being surfaced for this discussion And you know what happens to the this report? That's not under my control or our control The only thing that I can do is to put it out there and do what I can including them for like this one To communicate what it's about Obviously, it's important to have an understanding of what is behind the numbers Yeah, Michael did you? Thank you very much a follow-up question driven by the earlier remark about renewables Did you drill down into the national? Laboratory budgets of DOE including the national renewable energy lab Budget and the other national labs to figure out where the R&D cuts in the Department of Energy would really hit on terms of the national Laboratories that actually was a deliberate decision on our part not to focus on the the renewable Energy energy efficiency Investments that are primarily department of energy So, you know initially we thought about what do does it make sense to focus on the clean energy? Investments as well as the climate and the environmental R&D investments, so we chose We chose to you know not to deal with those investments, which means we did not really look at And rail and some of the other energy laboratories and what they were doing and what would be happening to them Partially because you know other other organizations We were told we're working on similar studies So but you know if you take those two pieces together what's happening with the clean energy Portfolio and what's happening to climate environment portfolio then you get I guess a broader story and I think it had what happens to be the same story and I've been associated with the Department of Energy since 1974 and Continue to be in one form or another so to answer your question. Yes, the the programs in energy efficiency and renewable energy in terms of the the proposals have been significantly cut whereas the the programs for the National Nuclear Science Administration Have been significantly increased And I would just add that in terms of the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy in terms of the programs all funded under that I think once again in terms of looking at the the budget request would be for a 72 percent cut overall for efficiency and renewable Which includes obviously? Any number of program? Terminations any other last questions? If not, I just wanted to ask whether there were any last words from from Ari or from Kay. Well, I would I would add it since Kay brought it up We are contemplating a follow-up review report and study At this point we need to confer with our advisory committee and we're gonna get input If we are always open for suggestions from the broader community about studies of this type and we will consider it Well, thank you very much and to and to that obviously reactions input From all of you today is also useful in terms of all of the thinking of The Novum team as well as others and in terms of thinking about where questions are and aspects that should perhaps be explored So I want to thank you all for coming and being part of this discussion Urge you to look carefully the report share it with others We just need to make sure that we understand in our thoughtful and as well versed as possible in terms of understanding What is being requested and moving forward and I want to say thank you very very much Okay, and all right. We really really appreciate your being here and talking with us today about that Thank you. Thank you