 Hello and welcome to the CMC Monday Market Webinar update with myself, Dave Madden, Market Analyst here at CMC Markets. Today's date is Monday the 5th of January 2018. Then today is the day and today is the time and it's just gone quarter past 12. As always with the webinars, before we actually go ahead with the webinar, I would start to have to play you the risk warning screens here in front of you. They are very straightforward and essentially states that anything that I go through on our webinar today really is just my own personal views, comments and opinions. It should not be taken as explicit trading or investment advice. If you guys have a quick read through that while I leave it here on the screens, we will then be kicking on with the webinar properly in a few seconds time. It's all fairly simple explanatory. For those of you who are regular listeners to our webinar, it's something that is quite standard practice here at CMC Markets and it will keep our compliance department quite happy. This is just the last slide of the risk warning and it's also the shorter slide and then we can actually proceed with the webinar itself. So basically what today's webinar is going to be covering is taking a look at the major move in the Dow Jones and the US markets back in the last week and then after that moving on to what's been going on in Europe, about an age overnight and also Europe. So starting back at the start, where it all began as it were, turning our attention back to last Friday at lunchtime, UK time, it was the non-farm payrolls from the United States. What we had out of that was we had a good set of headline figures that came in, 200,000 jobs were created exceeding expectations. There's a positive revision to the previous most number. Unemployment remains setting a 4.1% in line with expectations. But as always, the devil is in the detail when it comes to non-farm payrolls and the year on year annual, the year on year average earnings figure show the earnings in the United States increased by 2.9%. On top of that, the December figure was actually raised with a positive revision from 2.5% to 2.7%. So the strong earnings growth really between the positive revision and the strong January number really set up all rolling in terms of traders worried about a prospect of an interest rate hike from the Fed of Reserve. Going into 2018 and probably even in early stages of 2018, traders were probably looking towards a three interest rate hike move from the Fed of Reserve in 2018. Now the sounds have shifted somewhat and traders are now potentially pricing it, looking towards potentially four rate hikes from the Fed of Reserve this year. So for a long time we've had a major rally on the American markets, strong rally in Europe and also strong rally in Asia. And then when the traders get worried, seeing the surge, the likelihood of a rate hike from the Fed of Reserve in March and a few more interest rate hikes in 2018. Bad yields were quite generous as well. That brought the traders to actually exit the equity market. So we saw a colossal sell-off in American stocks on Friday night, which over 2% lost in the Dow and the S&P. We lost quite some substantial amounts in Asia overnight. And here in Europe, we're down firmly in the red too. So taking a look at what else we can actually look at this week in terms of our economic calendar. For those of you who are familiar with the trading platform you know under the market pulse tab, fourth option down is the market calendar. I'll have a quick run through the major economic indicators to keep an eye on for and events this week. And then for that, I'll have a look at the popular markets covering indices, commodities and currencies and looking at what's been going on price action-wise and areas of potential interest in terms of price action. So taking a look at tomorrow, moving ahead to tomorrow, we have retail sales coming out from Australia. We also have the Australian, Zero Bank of Australia, the Australian Central Bank meeting where rates are tipped to hold at 1.5%. Tomorrow morning, we have industrial manufacturing numbers coming out of Germany at 7am. Canadian trade figures come out at half one tomorrow, London time. Turning our attention, well actually late on Tuesday night, we have all the public figures coming out from Australia. And then turning our attention over to Tuesday, Wednesday rather, we have industrial output early doors out of Germany at 7am. French trade figures coming out at 7.45 Wednesday morning. We house pricing figures coming out of the UK at half eight on Wednesday morning. And looking down to the rest of the session, we have the mortgage figures coming out of the UK out of the US at 12 o'clock UK time. And the big one to watch out for on Wednesday is going to be the oil and inventory figures which come out every Wednesday at half past three. Turning our attention now to what's going on on Thursday, we have trade figures coming out of China overnight. Keep an eye on the imports and exports side of that, particularly the imports side. China is major importer of raw materials and commodities. And seeing as the London market is disproportionately exposed to commodity related companies, be it stocks in the mining sector or be stocks in the oil and gas sector, they make up a day, disproportionately large amount of weighting on the first 100. So you trade mining companies with what's yourself indeed, or the Australian currency, the Aussie dollar, keep an eye out for the Chinese trade figures. But we also have we also have trade figures from Germany on Thursday morning. And then later at 12 o'clock high noon on on Thursday, we have the interest rate decision from the Bank of England, but no change is expected there. At one 15 on Thursday, we have Canadian housing starts. And we also have the we also have all the bombing jobless claims figures from the United States. I have, I have one as of every single Thursday. Stick with the Chinese theme on Friday early hours of Friday morning with Chinese PPI Chinese CPI numbers coming out at the early hours of Friday morning. Once again, keep an eye on the Australian dollar mining stocks and also that the first 100 could be swayed around depending what's going on in the commodity sector. 745 we have 745 we have a fridge industrial production coming out Friday morning. We also have UK industrial production coming out at half nine. And then later on in the training session at half one, we have Canadian unemployment. So now they've covered the major economic events of the week. Let's take a look at some of the popular markets starting off with the first 200 and having a look at the price actions been doing and where we can potentially go price wise in the next few training sessions. So as we can see here from the chart, after reaching a fraction of high in the middle of last month, the fuzzy has been turned sharply lower. It's been pushing steadily lower here. As you can see, the low we hit to today has not been allowed to see since early to mid December. So we are talking about about five or six weeks low created on the fuzzy 100 plus more probably more towards a six or seven weeks low. As we can see, as the market was coming off steadily here, we saw a fairly, we saw a fairly steady increase in negative momentum. So as the market was pushing lower here, we saw a fairly swing from positive momentum here on the MacD indicator, the MacD Instagram or so turning sharply lower on the MacD on the negative side. So as markets moving lower, that's confirmed by the steady increase in negative momentum on the MacD indicator. So this is likely that this negative mood could last. And if you look to continue, push lower from here, we may find support in around the 7,228, which is the area of circling here, which is kind of late November lows and also the early December lows as well. I should be moved south to 7,278. We could head down towards mid-September low of 7,195 or south of that down towards the April low of 7,088. These are levels to watch out potentially to the downside. But if you do manage to see a bounce back, because we could see some potentially see some some some short covering or even perhaps a bargain hunters enter the fold, if you do see a bit of a bounce back, because you have been setting off now for about two and a half and three weeks, if you do see a bounce back, the first 30 keep an eye on for potentially could be the Tuesday moving average, which comes into play in around 7,455. Notice how the 30 moving average accidents both resistance and support in December. So it does have previous experience acting in the support and resistance fashion. So we could see it again, surely moved to the upside. If you move north on the 30 moving average, the next potential keep an eye on for could be the 50 moving average, which comes into play in around 7,560. Once again, notice how a lot of price consolidation and both accidents both support and resistance in December. So it has previous forms. So I may act in a similar fashion yet again, we really would want to see a move north of, you know, beyond this price area here, this red candle here on the 30th of January, we need to see it move north of 7,670 before we could become confident that this negative, that this recent negative move has come to an end. Turning our attention now to what's going on on the DAX, the general market, also heavily in the red on the back of the movie saw in both in the US on Friday and Asia overnight. So we saw a record high being created in last month, but not too dissimilar with the first 200. We didn't see a fairly fast steady decline ever since then. And the low you've traded to this morning on the DAX hasn't been seen since September. So I give an indication of how negative the sentiment is if our level is not seen since September. As the market was coming off here quite rapidly, we saw a swift increase in negative momentum. So the MACD indicator was confirming the negative move to the south. We did manage to find some support, this price area here of 12,550. They managed to act as an area of price consolidation, acted as resistance at one point and also support on other locations. So this area seems to be an area which for the time being is providing support for the DAX. But while we, if we move south of that level, the next area to keep an eye on forward to the downside could be 12,330. Notice how we did manage to see some support and resistance in that price action in July and also through September. And if you move south of that, the next level to keep an eye on forward to the downside could be 12,191. Notice how it did act as resistance in the early in the early September period. Similar to the FTSE 100, if it does, the market does turn around, the big kind of metric that I'll try to just keep an eye on for is the 200-day moving average which comes to play in around 12,757. So if we are bouncing back and we are going to see it move to the upside, that will be the first hurdle the market will need to clear. And if you head north of that price metric, the next big level to keep an eye on forward could be the 50-day moving average at 13,146. Notice how in January the 50-day moving average did on a few occasions act as support. While it acts as support, in fact the old support could potentially come new resistance. So keep an eye off on that price there and we really would need to take out 13,300, this price area here from the 1st of February in order to become more confident that the negative move that we've seen recently has come to an end. Turning our attention now to what's going on over in the U.S. markets, just to let you know folks, as it always with our webinars, I'm going to run through some of the major popular indices, popular commodities, popular currency pairs. And any markets you would like me to actually cover, just feel free to type away in the chat box and happily give it a look. So it's a fairly similar pattern on the Dow Jones or by the market we're down to create a record high last month, but ever since then it's been pushing quite aggressively to the downside. So as we're pushing lower here, an area that's already come on the horizon is the 50-day moving average, which comes into play in around 25,100, bearing in mind that Dow Jones hasn't really tested the 50-day moving average since September, so I'll give you that indication of just how bearish the markets have been recently. And also here back in August and September, on a few occasions the Dow Jones market bounced off of the 50-day moving average, so it did act as support on a number of occasions, so it's possible we could see some buyers enter the fold in around the 50-day moving average, but if you continue to move south beyond the 50-day moving average, an area to keep an eye out for could be 24,535, which is this price area here, which is the early November high, and then also that price area did manage to act as a bit of support as the market was pushing higher in December. If the market does manage to turn around itself, then there to keep an eye out for to the upside will be 26,104, this price area here, it's a combination of both support and resistance when the market was moving higher and lower in recent sessions, but given that we've come so far on the Dow Jones and also other indices, the move that we've seen in the America terms is quite large, but recently, but when you consider just how much the market has moved over the past 12 months, if you look at same with the Dow Jones was early February last year, we were talking around 20,200 points, and bearing in mind only a few weeks ago we were north of 26,000, so just give you an indicator on just how much ground has been traveling in the past 12 months, so when you see sessions like we saw last Friday where the market was down 600, 66 points, it's a big American number, but bearing in mind the market did manage to gain over 6,000 points in the space of 12-month period, so it's all relative to the move that has preceded it. Turning our attention now to what's going on in the S&P 500, not to use a similar looking chart on the S&P 500, whereby we've had a tremendous amount of gains racked up over the past 12 months, and highs were created all throughout January, but the market did manage to actually have a fairly decent sell-off as well, where for the time being the market has managed to gain some support in around this price area here, the lows of the early January at 2,736. If we do manage to break south of this price area here of 2,736, an area of potential support could be the fifth moving average at 2,721, or south of that at 2,695, and notice that 2,695 did manage to act on resistance on a couple of occasions in December, so these are all potential price areas to keep an eye out for, should this negative move on the S&P continue. But if you do manage to actually bounce back, there's to be a psychological number, if you manage to bounce back from here, I need to keep an eye out for to the upside, will be the mid-January low of 2,769, which is this price area here, and if you go beyond that, the kind of psychological number to keep an eye out for to the upside will of course be 2,800, and if you go north of 2,800, we could potentially head up towards 2,840, because north south they managed to, when the market was moving to the downside in late January, they managed to act as resistance on that occasion. So we've been talking about how equity markets have been coming off on the flip side of things, gold has been pushing higher, granted gold is of a few dollars a few dollars a day, when you take into consideration how much equity markets have lost, the reciprocal upward move in gold really hasn't been that big, it's partially because traders are potentially nervous, we could see a rate hike from the Federal Reserve next month in the middle of March. And if you look at the price of gold, it has been in a steady upward trend over the past, since mid-December, over the past six going on seven weeks. The move to the downside here, since the highs, they were created in late January, the market has been moving lower, we've seen a swing to negative momentum, negative momentum has actually been increasing, so it's likely that this negative move could continue, if we do move lower in the near term, we could be looking down towards 1326, if we head south of that, we could be looking towards head towards 1310, or below that, below that down towards 1300 itself, the big psychological number. But bearing in mind, if you look at this candle here, what's interesting about this is quite a distinctive red candle here, quite a bearish candle, this was from last Friday when traders clocked that there was a jump in average earnings on the January figure and the December figure was raised higher, and this was the moment when traders hold on, jump in earnings, that could translate to higher inflationary pressures, bearing in mind, over the last number of months, the US dollar, over the last few, very recently, the US dollar index was at a multi-year low, a weak US dollar is likely to feed into the US economy as inflation down the line, higher inflation expectations, as what's on the latest line at the moment, and we have higher inflation, excuse me, we have higher inflation expectations that could need to hire more interest rates than originally penciled in, so keep an eye out for that in terms of if you are trading gold, if you do manage to kind of shake out the negative trend that we've been in the last couple of sessions, a break north of 1350 could signify a continuation of the upward trend that has been in since December, so notice how higher high, higher low, higher high, higher low, higher high, classic upward trend, now we are seeing the lower low, lower high, lower low, so if you do break south, I'll say 1326, that could be an indication that this upward trend here has come to an end, or else it's going to have a fairly decent pullback, so but if you do manage to break north of 1350, a could be an indication that the upward trend we've been in since this has been in December is going to continue, and the move north of that could bring in the recent high of 1366 in the play, and should we take out 1366, we could be looking towards 1375, which is the level that hasn't been seen since July 2016. I take a look now at the oil market, the oil market has been recently boring in the last couple of weeks, after hitting a three-year high about Brent and WGI, the market has been trading sideways, so this is the market, this is the price of Brent oil hitting a three-year high north of $71 a bar, but ever since then, no one has always been edging lower, and the size has moved to the south side, but a move to the south side nonetheless. One of the factors in that is that output in the United States, thanks to the share production, has now exceeded 10 million dollars, 10 million barrels of oil per day. Output in the United States has been at this level since 1970, so it's a bit of a cash 22, while OPEC wants to curtail demand and drive the price of oil up, higher oil prices obviously encourage Shane producer to get involved, and the resultant of that has of course been U.S. oil production as well, and it's highest level since the 1970s in four decades, so notice how we have been going to grinding lower here at the price of oil, the negative momentum on the market indicator is rising, so the momentum is with the bears. If you continue to drift lower on WTI and Brendon here, we could be looking heading back down towards $6,726, or even down to $66 a barrel per itself, and even if you have a decent sell-off, it could be looking heading back down towards $65. Move to the upside, the big psychological number, $7 a barrel, and then north of that, the recent high, which was $7138. It's $3138 cents. Looking at the price of WTI now, let's exit that out. Notice how it's a reasonably similar looking chart here, after hitting a three-year high here, we have managed to kind of edge a bit lower. The market has been broadly speaking of kind of sideways changing, but slightly skewed to the downside, so if you do manage to kind of keep drifting lower here, we could be looking at heading back down towards $63 a barrel here, or maybe potentially even down as low as $62, and it's only if you get a fairly decent retracement, could we be heading back towards the fifth removing average here at $61 per barrel, and if the upward trend does manage to continue, the next step is to watch out for to the upside, will of course be $67 a barrel, and then of course traders like big psychological numbers, $68, $69, so on, and so forth. Comparing a mind, both WTI and Brent, the markets have been rising steadily upwards for the last seven months. If you draw a low, you can see here from the lows in June last year, it's been a solid seven months of pushing higher, granted the energy market is quite choppy, and we have seen pullbacks, they have been very sizable, so keep an eye out for that. Turning our attention now to what's going on with the currency markets, having a look now at the Euro versus the US dollar, we can see here that the recent, so you can see here that the Euro has been a fairly solid upward trend for quite some time, but really the really kind of acceleration has come in from the lows in November, a classic example of upward trend, higher, high, higher, low, higher, high, higher, low, higher, high, higher, low, and then we've seen it run out a bit of steam in the kind of 125 area. The wider trends suggest the market is going to continue to move into the upside. Comparing a mind, there are potentially now fears around the higher interest rates in the United States, with that we could see a firmer US dollar. But I'm also, from a charting point of view, what I'm also interested in looking at is that we're not too far away from the 125 markup here on terms of the price action, and the price has been rising steadily the last few weeks, but what I'm slightly concerned about is that if you look at the MACD indicator, the MACD histogram, we can see a fairly obvious decline in the positive momentum, and we have a scenario whereby the market is pushing higher, yet momentum is running out of steam. It suggests the buyers are getting a bit wary, they're running out of energy, they're running out of steam, running out of momentum, and it could be an indication that the market might just have a bit of a pullback or a bit of a correction. So the upward trend has been in place since November, firmly, which fits in with the wider trend going on for quite some time. We have seen multi-year highs on the Euro dollar, but we could see a bit of a pullback, and if we do see a bit of a pullback, we could like heading back down towards 124, or perhaps the late January lows of 123.35, or maybe even a low as 123 itself, but the wider trend is to the upside, so traders would be looking off for 125, which would be difficult to hold above a break above 125, because that potentially puts a 126 on the radar for the bulls. Have you looked at what's been going on in the pound first, the US dollar? As I mentioned, any markets you'd like me to cover that I haven't covered, please feel free to enter them in the chat box, and we'll have a look at them. So the big picture is this, from March last year, drawing along between the lows of March and the lows of August, granted we did trade on a few occasions below that trend line in November, but by and large we have been north of it. So the overall, the big picture trend is still positive on the pound versus the US dollar. Similarly, it's struggling to get on the euro dollar. It's kind of, it's almost like the kind of run out of steam in late January. So the pound here is finding obviously difficult to break north of 143. Obviously, if we move north of 143, we will look towards 144, 145. These are all levels not seen since June 23rd, 2016, the day of the EU referendum here in the UK. But if you do manage to see move to the downside in the pound versus the US dollar, we could find some support in around here, the lows of just shy of 140 at 139, 78. Perhaps even low, as low as 139 itself, but we're well above the 50 moving average, we're well above that this trend line support, which has been acting as support on a few occasions over the last nine or 10 months. Things are still looking quite positive for the pound versus the US dollar. So I'm going to do euro sterling and then I go to do dollar versus Japanese yen and then we'll look to wrap things up because it's just not coming to the end of the half an hour slot for the webinar. Let's of course, you guys won't ask any markets, you guys want to look at. So we see here on the broad you speaking for a few months now, we've seen a broad wider trend of the downside in the euro versus the British pound, but we have seen some decent support coming to play in around this area here at zero spot, 86.89. And notice how we have managed to push higher here in the last few weeks on the euro versus US dollar and why we've been doing that. While the price has been pushing higher here, there's been a distinct decline in negative momentum, or even actually swung to positive momentum now. So it could suggest at the momentum and the pressure is now with the bulls. The first hurdle which we need to declare is this area here, the fifth day moving average, which comes into play in a zero spot 88.52, which we'll just go on that moment. And if you go beyond that, we can be looking heading towards zero spot 89, zero zero. And then of course, an area we'd really need to clear to kind of shape off our negated negative trend we've been in recently will be this price here from the middle of January of zero spot 89.29. If we move north of that, then we could be looking heading back up towards zero spot 90, zero zero. If the market does manage to kind of flip turnover itself yet again, keep an eye out for zero spot 88, zero zero to the downside and then below that zero spot 86, 89. This price here and also these prices here from the lows of both December and also of January. So keep an eye out for the last market we're going to keep and we look now at the US dollar versus Japanese yen and then we're going to look to to wrap things up. So I can see here on the dollar versus the end over the last few months since the November release, it's been in a fairly obvious downward trend quite a deep lower low here, lower high, a bit of consolidation, lower low, lower high, lower low. Market has bounced back here. What's interesting about this is that the rally here on Friday with the US dollar was very bullish because interest because the possibility of a rate expanse seem more realistic on the back of the wage figures within the non-company report. We can see here at the market it's pushed higher here has managed to kind of break well trade north of the of the of this price action here of the mid November mid January low. But we have dip back below it again. So we're pushing higher here. The negative momentum indicator, the negative momentum indicator is declining. We see a slight creep higher in positive momentum, but can it be sustained? We really would need to kind of head north of say 111 or possibly even the two or three moving average at 111 spots 70 before we can actually be confident that this negative move that has been in since November has come to an end. If the market does turn over in the south yet again, we could be looking heading back down towards 109 and then of course the recent low of 108 spot 28 and if you go below that area of the recent January low the next big area to keep on the other downside would be the September low of 107 spot 32. Right, I do want to thank you for your patience and for for tuning in today. I've been Dave Madden here at CMC Markets and I'd like to thank you for myself and also all of us here at CMC Markets. Seeing as you don't have any questions or further comments I'd like to thank you for your time and please feel free to tune in next week. Have a good day and have a good week.