 Hello and welcome to the weekly market update with me David Madden. Today's date is Tuesday the 7th of May 2019 and the time is just gone 11 of 55 British summer time Obviously the UK market was closed yesterday because it was the May Bank holiday Whereas mainland Europe was opened And given that the UK was shut yesterday We have see we have seen the UK market play catch up with what's been going on in the financial markets over the last few days Essentially trade tensions between the US and China have heightened again, but they're not as bad as initially has seemed Over the weekend President Trump threatened to increase the levy placed on Chinese Chinese imports from 10% to 25% and they also talked about increase in tariffs on an additional three hundred and twenty five billion dollars worth of imports That is obviously Rocked US-China trade relations in the last few months We've been hearing bits and pieces of information from both sides and it's been largely been positive This could be a move by Trump to try and hurry things along But China did China reacted recently calmly. There was no tit for tat retaliation Chinese trade delegates are still on track to fly to the US this week Including in a delegation is going to be Chinese advice premier and seeing as the country's second More senior politician is included in the trade talks, which will take place in the US this week That's been seen as a sign that China are actually China mean business And what one of the kind of gauges of how well trade talks are going how serious both sides are about trade talks has often been How senior the trade negotiators Happy that are involved the talks have been included. So The vice premier of China is is on is heading to the US this week And that is seen as a step in the right direction that being said we have seen a lot of sell-off London market today London's quite it's the foot two hundred is very international index and it's been very much exposed to what's going on And like I said, the British market was closed yesterday. So Banks like standard Chartered and HSBC, which have large exposure to the fairies there off and also it is worth pointing out the London market is Has a disproportionately large amount of moderated companies being at mining companies and oil and gas companies. So The foot two hundred is underperforming today in comparison with this year It's covered in counterparts, but it is reporting out yesterday We saw alert sell-off in mainland European equity markets and US stocks But the sell-off wasn't as severe as initially as I've actually seen We saw but the mainland European markets and US markets sold off heavily on the open But then managed to recoup some of the losses That's essentially kind of like the big news I've seen in the last few days. Let's take a look at how the markets are fairing out So starting off with the foot see 100 We can see here that the foot see 100 continues to be in its upper trend the one that's been in place Since late December last year obviously a we ate a in late April We had a fresh six-month high on the front 200 and the market has managed to drift lower since then as you can see here We're pretty much sitting on this blue line here the fifth any moving average which comes to play Just in around the kind of seven thousand three hundred mark And if you can hold up of that level we could see further gains we made we could see the market heading back up towards Seven thousand four hundred shouldn't move should we move beyond that we could be looking at targeting that you know the mid April high in around the seven thousand five hundred and twenty five to eight mark and if you go beyond that if you take out the April high we could be looking at targeting at this region here 11 not seen since the late September last year in around the seven thousand five hundred and fifty eight mark If you do manage to push out lower from here We could be looking at targeting this red line here Which is the two hundred moving average and that comes to play in around seven thousand two hundred And if you have a size of the break below that I could take us back down towards the mid-febrile low of our seven thousand and forty Take a look now. What's going on over in Germany with the Dax Simmers division we're buyers only on Friday. We saw levels not seen for over six months on the German market So things are looking quite quite positive at the back in the last week We are obviously a quite a substantial sell-off and a bit of a rebound Yesterday in line of what's going on in relation to US China trade talks, and we're still kind of in the red today And we're still well off the highs at the back of the last week But if you take a look at the wider picture, we're selling a nice upper trend a series of higher highs and higher lows and if you could hold above The lows of yesterday and if you can hold above this region here the kind of Psychological important 12,000 mark on the Dax it's likely we could see further gains to the upside been maybe could be looking a heavy back up towards the the highs of last week in around these 12,450 mark and if you go beyond that we could be looking at targeting is the the late September highs of in around 12,460 and if you go beyond that you could be looking at targeting this area in around here In at 12,600 It's only if you have a size of break below the psychological important 12,000 mark could look could then we be looked ahead now towards this year you here in around 11,820 Take a look what's going over on the US market starting off with the S&P 500 So the S&P 500 only last week managed to rack up fresh all-time high So it gives you an indication of how Polish US markets have been And it's also worth noting that the last time we had these kind of height and trade tensions between the US and China even though the US is one of the one of the players Chinese markets and Actually, European markets have actually oh, I've actually traditionally suffered worse whenever the US China's trade conflict So the sell-off that we've seen in the US markets hasn't been as bad as out of say Europe or in or indeed the Far East So we're still very much in the upper trend That's been a spin of place like I said, we only last week We saw all-time highs on the S&P 500 and if you can manage to get you know We're currently above the cycle as important 2,000 mark and if you could hold above that we could be looking at retesting the recent highs We're sure in around the 2955 960 mark and if you go beyond that we could be then be looking at having a printing a fresh all-time highs targeting potentially up as high as 2970 80 so on and so forth, but even if you take out the lows of yesterday in around the 2800 and 85 83 mark even if you drip drop below that we could be looking at finding some support in around this area here in Around the 2800 and 60 mark get active about resistance on the way up and a bit of support as well when the markets had a Acted as a bit of support in early April and if you remember to drift below that The next area to keep on that for will be this region here in around the two thousand eight hundred and 1720 mark 2800 and 17,000 820 that is a very decent level of Resistance in the past seven or eight months and I should act as a bit of support as well So keep on that for that that area should we see a fairly sharp move to the downside Take a look now on the the Dow Jones So we reached multi-month highs on the Dow Jones last week not quite as strong as S&P 500 Which at all-time highs but nonetheless, we're still in we're still very much in the upper trend that's been in place since late December As you can see here The market is now back above this blue line the 50 moving average which comes into place which comes to the play at 26,000 and 83 Notice how the fifth day moving average did manage to act as support in mid-march and also briefly as well in January So the metric has acted as support in the past it makes it more likely that would do so in the future And if you could hold above the fifth day moving average We could be looking at targeting the recent highs in around the 26,000 700 mark and then it should be break beyond those we could be looking at targeting the cycle ish important 27,000 If you do have a size of break below The 50 moving average here we could be looking any back down towards this red line here the 200 moving average which comes in the play at 25,415 we can see here that the 30 moving average this did manage to act as both resistance and support in January and February and the setup that we saw in the early March didn't quite get as low as it But it's in the general area. So keep in mind out for the 30 moving average should we see a size of sell-off We might see fresh buyers enter the fold because keep in mind We've been in an upper trend now since late December and buying on the tip has been a popular strategy in recent months So we've talked about some markets that have been in a fairly clear upper trend recently Let's let's take a look at gold which has been in a fairly clear downward trend since mid-February So we've seen a nice series of higher of our lower lows and lower highs on the gold market Now we managed to actually Tray down towards the 1266 area only last week and well 66 hasn't really been seen in the gold market with a joint lowest level since late December And essentially why we can remain below the kind of 1290 $1,300 mark on gold is likely that we could see further losses and should we look at moving south yet again? I'm taking off the recent lows of it around 1266. We could be making heading down towards 1250 But if you do manage to get a press on higher from here And if you take off the late April high of in around the 1288 1290 mark if we can get back above the psychology important $1,300 Per ounce mark keep up for the early April high in at 1310 Now it's only really if you're going to take out this high here could then we start to think you know, but maybe that the negative move between between mid-February and April has actually come to an end But ultimately while we can hold above that level we're still likely continue in the recent downward trend Take a look now. What's going on on the oil market? So the oil market at a fairly big sell off yesterday, but it's much you recover some of it Given that China's major importer of all so the wider picture has been that all has been in a solid upward trend Since late December in an only only back in the variable three million levels not seen since late October So give you an indication of a bullish recent run on any all market has been this candle here is the largest that we saw on the back of the The heightened tensions between the US and China but as you can see the market came down just shy of this red line here The two hundred and will be average which comes into play at 69 spot 15 We can see that that particular metric match active pop resistance and Support a few occasions in April so that levels it seemed to be about a reasonable importance But we can hold above that metric It's likely that we could see further gains being made and the and the old market Continuing in the wider upward trend that's been in play now for about four or five months And if you could press on higher from here, I'm sure we take out 72 bucks in barrel On Brent we could be looking at retesting the recent highs up around 75 spot 71 And if you go beyond that we could be looking at targeting This area here, which comes to play in a just shy of 78 dollars per barrel. I take a look now at WTI That's a very similar picture So WTI also hit fresh multi-month highs at the back end of April the market has managed to drift lower It actually traded below its tour the moving average which comes to play at 60 spot 72 But manage to actually hold close above it yesterday and if you can hold above that met that metric We could be looking at retesting kind of 64 area. I'm sure we're gonna be on that We could be looking heading up towards the kind of 66 spot 50 mark And if you can take out the late April high, we could be looking at heading towards this year here in at 67 spot 80 I think I'll be on that they kind of a cyclical edge important 70 bucks a barrel might come to play them But if you do take out yesterday's low the next area to keep them out for Yeah, yesterday's low in around 60 bucks per barrel next you're keeping that for below that will be this region here in Around the kind of 58 58 10 mark we can see that acted as a Sport on a few occasions in March so as a possibility it might act support as again in the near future Take a look now what's going on on the euro versus the US dollar So your dollar has been a fairly clear clear cut downward trend after in recent months In fact only at the back end of April we hit a level that wasn't seen hasn't been seen For what wasn't saved for quite some time it's a level that really wasn't seen until June 2017 So give indication of all bearish the your dollar market has been recently if you can look to press on lower from here We could we could look at a retesting The April lows of in at one spot 1110 and shouldn't be below that if you were looking at a back down towards the kind of psychological important one 10 mark If you do manage to press on higher from here on Euro dollar We keep looking at targeting the early Kind of the mid April highs in around once about 1322 and if you go beyond that You can be like Kelly towards gonna once about 14 or even towards to get at the mid March highs of once about 1448 take a look now what's going on on the pound versus the US dollar so the broader picture of in recent months has been Power versus US dollar has been in a nice kind of upward trend Broadly speaking against the US dollar granted when it managed to have a fairly seismic drift off in late April But we've managed to move back above The dirty moving average and back above the kind of psychological important 130 mark And if you can hold above the the 130 mark we could be looking any back up towards 132 actually we go beyond that we could be looking at retesting The mid March highs of in around one spot 3360 year in one spot 3380 in around that area If you do have a slice of break back below to one 30 mark and back below the two nothing moving average Which comes to play at one spot at 2963 we keep looking at heading back down towards The levels of mid the lows mid February in around one spot 2775 We'll now take a look at the week ahead the week ahead can be found on our plot on our website If you go to cmcmarkets.com and under news and analysis you will find the weekend article So taking a look at what? events that are due at later on today First quarter numbers from Marriott over the US We also have first quarter numbers from Lyft which obviously had an IPO only recently and the fair this year price has been in a pretty downward trend since then We've had the reserve Bank of Australia in industry decision overnight Already, but but looking head to tomorrow Wednesday. We have the Reserve Bank of Reserve Bank of New Zealand their interest rate decision will be made overnight Also overnight we have the trade figures from China and I keep in mind. This is going to be important because US China trade talks are pretty much at the forefront of the markets at the moment Looking at to Thursday. We have fully our figures from BT Group On Friday. We have very different economic announcements from the UK first quarter GDP Manufacturing and trade numbers around and then a Friday We have the first quarter results from the International Consolidated Airlines Group as the owner owner of British Airways and Erlingas Liberia Airlines and also finally on Friday. We have the Uber IPO And given that lift like IPO not too long ago and Lyft have their first fourth numbers out today Uber is going to be in play Finally, if you have any comments to make on this video or any of the other videos we've made here at CMC markets Please feel free to leave review and gurus. That's all for me this week. Thank you very much