 Hello, everyone. Welcome to Options with Doug, streaming live daily on Bookmap Discord and the Bookmap YouTube channel at 1.30 p.m. Eastern Time. Before I get started, I need to go through the general disclosures. All bookmap, the minimum materials, information, and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations. Risk Disclosure. Trading futures, equities, and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Here's my contact information. The best way to get in touch with me is through Discord. My name on Discord is Doug P. Also in Bookmap Discord, there's an Options-Doug Chat channel that's a great place to post questions, comments, and content related to the topics of my presentation and the topics of the channel which I'll go through in just a moment. I'm also on X, formerly known as Twitter, and my name there is at Doug Plass. The focus of my presentation today and the focus of the Options-Doug Chat channel is options, order flow, the impact of options markets on stocks and futures, and the influence of market maker hedging flow on price action. I have a two-step process for trading and the first is planning, and I use positional analysis. I look at how traders and market makers are positioned in the options market and how those positions change from day to day to develop a thesis regarding the expected trading range and volatility for the day as well as the directional bias. And the second step in my process is execution. I look at real-time order flow in Bookmap and real-time market maker hedging flow in SpotGamma Hero to confirm my thesis and for setups for entries and exits. And when I talk about setups today, setups can be taken any number of ways. For example, the S&P 500 setups can be taken with futures, with ES futures, spy shares, spy options, SPX options, or even futures options. Questions and comments are welcome, and I will be watching both the Options-Doug Chat channel and Discord as well as the Chat and YouTube for your questions and comments. Please feel free to post and I'll do my best to answer your questions. Here's my agenda for today, Monday, November 13th. First of all, I want to go over news items, upcoming for the week, economic data events. They are not any earnings that I'm watching this week. Then I'll go through my positional analysis, then I'll review some setups from earlier today, and then I'll take a look at the live market. And when I get to the live market, if anyone has any stocks they want me to take a look at, please let me know and I'll be glad to do that. Alright, let's start with news items. First of all, there were a couple of bond auctions this morning, six month and three month, 11.30 a.m. Eastern time, non-event. Then tomorrow the events really get started with the CPI data at 8.30 a.m. Eastern time. That could definitely be a market mover. Then on Wednesday at 8.30 a.m., PPI data and retail sales come out. Again that's 8.30 a.m. Eastern time. And then tomorrow morning is the VIX monthly options expiration. Thursday, 8.30 a.m. jobless claims. And then on Friday there is some data out, not really anticipated to be a market mover, building permits, 8.30 a.m. Eastern time. And the big thing on Friday is the options expiration. That is the November monthly options expiration. And as the week goes on we'll take a look at that expiration to see whether puts or calls are dominating. And that will give us a clue as to how the market may respond after expiration. Alright, that is the upcoming economic data. Alright, let's start with the positional analysis for the SOB 500. This is the ES Futures and Book Map. Before I take a closer look at this chart, I want to take a look at a larger time frame. And good afternoon Don. Welcome. Glad you're here. Alright, let's take a look at a larger time frame. I'm going to go to an SPX chart. This is a 30-day one-hour chart. Let me point out the key turning points on this chart. I have them shaded in these small rectangles. First of all, that is the September jobs report that came out Friday, October 6th. October 6th, Gamma Squeeze. Price found resistance right around $43.90. Move lower. Interest rates were increasing. There was the incursion of Hamas into Israel. And then this is the October 20th options expiration. Very put dominated, negative Gamma. The expectation was for a put-vanna rally. That really only lasted for a couple days. The market continued lower. Traders were buying puts before the weekend. And then there was a huge implied volatility collapse put-vanna rally after that was on, began on October 30th, Monday, October 30th. Again, huge IV collapse. Looks like there was some consolidation. And then last Friday, traders decided the magnificent seven stocks had dipped enough. And they were aggressively buying calls for most of the day. And that drove a huge rally on Friday. And note at the beginning of the day on Friday, Gamma Notional was negative for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ and now has shifted to quite positive after that huge rally. So there was certainly a put-vanna component to the rally last Friday as well as the call buyers and the magnificent seven stocks. We'll take a look at and see what traders are doing today in those stocks. All right, so that is the, those are the key turning points. Now let's take a look at the levels on the chart. First of all, the dash purple lines are showing the lower and upper weekly expected move. This is based on the options market. That's for the week. It's updated once a week. Then the dash blue lines are showing the lower and upper daily expected move. I update that once a day. Again, that's based on the options market. There are also some spot gamma levels on this chart. I'm going to point out the key daily levels. These are provided to spot gamma subscribers in a variety of trading platforms. This is thinkorswim. Again, I'm going to point out the key daily levels. First of all, this is the put wall. That's the strike with the largest net negative gamma that can be expected to act as support. Note that level did move higher from 4,000 on Friday to 4,200 today. So a bullish shift higher and the potential floor for price for SPX. The next level up is that the 4,395 volatility trigger and that is spot gamma's proprietary volatility flip level. Below that level, market makers position on the gamma curve is negative. In a negative gamma environment, market makers have to trade with price to hedge their delta exposure and that tends to enhance or increase volatility. On the other hand, above that level, like SPX is trading now, market makers position on the gamma curve is positive and a positive gamma environment, market makers have to trade against price and that tends to subdue or decrease volatility and leads to smaller trading ranges, more range days, mean reverting range days. Just above that is the absolute gamma strike at 4,400. That's the strike with the largest absolute positive and negative gamma. And that is where most of the gamma weighted open interest is concentrated in a positive gamma environment. That highest level of gamma weighted open interest can often act as a pin. So price, there's a good potential that price may be focused on that level. As the wheat goes on towards expiration. Then the next level up is the call wall at 4,450 and that is the strike with the largest net positive gamma that can be expected to act as resistance. And that level did move up from 4,400 on Friday to 4,450 today. That's also bullish. The volatility trigger also shifted higher. So 3, a hat trick for SPX, volatility trigger put wall, call wall all moving higher. That is bullish. Let's take a look at a one day chart for SPX now. So there's this, that was Friday I highlighted that. Showed that on the larger timeframe chart. I'm going to zoom just a little bit. This is SPX for today in this dark shaded portion to the right. This is the volatility trigger 4,395 acted as support and that was the great launching point for along today. Price moved up a little bit more than I thought. Passed the spy 4,40 level almost to this combo L3 level at 4,424. That was noted as resistance in the spot gamma AM founders note. All right. So those are the SPX levels in play for today. Now let's take a look at book map and book map. I have my own cloud notes. So I can show SPX levels. Most important today. There's the 4,395 volatility trigger that did act as support. Great launching point entry point for along today. Here's the spy 4,40 absolute gamma strike. So I have SPX levels, spy levels. There's the spy 4,41 level. That's not a spot gamma level. That's just a round number level that did act as resistance. And then there's this combo level up above that I mentioned. And this is how I frame movement in the SMB 500. I'm looking at SPX and spy levels as the key levels for movement within the SMB 500. We'll talk more about setups in a few minutes. All right. Note there is a difference in price between ES and SPX. And today it is, earlier it was a little bit lower than 14. And today it is somewhere between between 14 and 15 this afternoon. So I'm using 14. So ES minus SPX is 14. That's what I'm using. So I'm showing the SPX 4,400 level at ES 4,415. All right. So so far today those are the levels in play with the again the key level being the 4,395 volatility trigger acting as support. All right. For spy there were several shifts in levels. The volatility trigger call wall and absolute gamma strike all shifted higher. So bullish shifts higher. A hat trick for spy as well. And the put wall did move lower. And I really consider the shift higher and the shifts higher and the volatility trigger call wall and absolute gamma strike as more important. All right. So my thesis for the day based on the shifts in levels for the SP 500 was definitely bullish. All right. Let's take a look at NASDAQ now. This is the NQ futures and book map. And again I'm going to take a look at first of all one isolate QQQ levels. So we can see the QQQ levels in play for today. Note the sharp fee reversal that was not really at any key level but then just a very mechanical uptrend up to around the 378 level. Let's just zoom this chart a little bit so we can see the spot gamma levels in play for today. So QQQ trading above its volatility trigger and note above the 380 level. You really can't see the label there but that is the call wall. The call wall has remained at QQQ at 380 for QQQ for some time. So earlier today the 377 level act has been acting as support. All right. So that's QQQ and there's that 377 level acting as support. Let's take a look at NDX this 15,500 level definitely in play for today in DX. There's the 15,500 level and that is a large gamma two level. All right for QQQ the volatility trigger and absolute gamma strike shifted higher. Put wall shifted lower and for NDX also a hat trick. Volatility trigger, put wall, call wall all shifted higher. Let's go back to NQ now. Lunchtime consolidation between 377 and that 15,500 level. Now it looks like NASDAQ wants to break out above that 15,500 level. All right. So thesis for the day for NASDAQ was also bullish based on the shifts higher in levels and one of the key levels for today was right around the lower day they expected move for NASDAQ that was not really tested just above that level earlier this morning. All right. Let's take a look at gamma notional to see how market makers were positioned on the gamma curve at the beginning of the day or positioned on the gamma curve. Alex asked do I consider icebergs? Yes I do. Very important information for creating futures. And I'll talk when I talk about setups today the icebergs were a key in that long at the 43.95 level. All right. Let's take a look gamma notional for today. This is how market makers were positioned on the gamma curve at the beginning of the day for the S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000. Note all these. The numbers for S&P 500, S&P X and Spy very positive and it's been quite a while since I've seen a positive number for Spy. So this is a very positive, positive notional gamma in this position. Traders are short calls. Market makers are long calls. That's the assumption that spot gamma makes. So market makers have to trade against price to hedge their delta exposure in this positive gamma environment. As price goes up those calls start to increase in value and they have to sell futures to hedge their delta exposure. And as price drops those calls lose value and market makers can buy back their shorts. So market makers are trading against price. All right. So for QQQ the numbers also positive. These numbers shifted pretty strongly from Friday. So on Friday gamma notional was negative for S&P X by QQQ and shifted quite positive today. Still negative for the Russell 2000. Let's take a look at the Vantemodel now to get an idea of what this means. I'm going to start with S&P X. Earlier today the low of the day for S&P X was again that 43.95 volatility trigger. Let's zoom in on this chart. So first of all let me explain what this chart is showing. This is the Vantemodel delta notional. This is market makers delta notional on the vertical axis and price on the horizontal axis. There are two curves on this chart. First the light gray curve shows how market makers delta notional changes with changes in price only. And then the purple curve this is what we focus on shows how market makers delta notional changes with changes in price and implied volatility. And that change in delta notional with the change in implied volatility is the Vant effect. Vant is the second order Greek. All right. First of all let's locate 43.95 on this chart. Somewhere around here between these two lines. So what this is indicating is this morning as price was increasing there was a very, very slight Vantetail one. Really not much. S&P X trading pretty close to the bottom of the curve. Let's see where S&P X is trading now. So right around 44.18 somewhere just right at the bottom of this curve. So there's no Vantetail left at all. And if price continues to increase market makers delta notional will start to increase and they'll have to sell futures to hedge their delta exposure. And that is typical of a positive gamma environment. So we know gamma notional was positive at the beginning of the day and S&P X is trading above its volatility trigger. Let's take a look at spy. Spy low of the day. Right around 4.38 and a half. Somewhere around here. So very again a very slight Vantetail one to the morning. Right now spy is trading right around 4.41 close to the high of the day. Right on the bottom of the curve. And finally QQQ QQQ low of the day. Let's see where that 3.75. So again a very slight Vantetail wind QQQ actually still negative for the day trading right around 3.78 toward the bottom of the curve. So no no more Vantetail wind enterprise starts to increase. Market makers will have to start selling futures. They will sell NQ futures for QQQ. All right so Vantetail not that much of a component in trade today. Like it was in that huge rally that I talked about from October 30th that IV collapse put Vantetail rally. All right let's take a look at some setups now. So first of all my thesis as I mentioned before bullish on the S&P 500 and NASDAQ and based on the positive gamma notional looking for lower trading range more subdued price action today. Now that's all dependent on other factors as well. You know of course both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 are index of stocks and there are seven stocks at least that are huge drivers of price action in the both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 and it certainly pays to watch those every day. All right so let's take a look at some setups now. First of all I'm going to take a look at what options traders have been doing today. I'm going to start with the S&P 500. This is the hero signal hedging impact real time options. What this chart is showing is price for SPX and the hero signal for a combined signal of SPX by XSP and ES futures that showing what options traders are doing and all those instruments and market maker hedging activity. A rising line indicates traders are taking positive delta positions and market makers are hedging that by buying futures. On the other hand with the falling line indicates traders are taking negative delta positions. Market makers taking the opposite side so they have to sell futures to hedge their delta exposure. I'm going to zoom in on this chart and I'm going to focus on first of all the morning and this was not a very clear signal so focus on the I'm focusing on the long setup the reversal higher at the hedge wall the volatility trigger 43.95 and really took a while for options traders to get going. Let me zoom in this chart so we just see the so there's the signal in the morning looking for a long entry you know if you were just looking right around this time like I was so what I saw is price moving down to a potential support level 43.95 volatility trigger traders start taking positive delta positions and then looking for a long entry. Alright so let's go take a look at book map take a look at the clues and book map. Let's go back to the ES I'm going to zoom in. Alright so I'm looking at this level to act as support potential support. Alright so first clue just looking at a very short time frame I saw that traders were taking positive delta positions with a rising hero line. I have a potential support level large traders coming in with iceberg orders so Alex there you go yes I do consider iceberg orders that shown by this on-chart indicator as well as the rising light blue line and around that level also notice cumulative volume delta rising you can see this final shift and volume dots the volume dots are showing market buy minus sell but magenta dots indicate more sellers than buyers green dots indicate more buyers than sellers and note that price was making a series of higher lows so I knew that at least in the very short term traders were taking positive delta positions aggressive buyers were coming in right at that 43.95 level large traders with iceberg orders and then as price starts moving higher buy stop orders help to feel the move higher that shown by the yellow line there and again remember my thesis for the day was bullish so there were a number of ways to take this as I mentioned in my introduction by futures you could buy a call in futures spy call SPX call so a number of ways to take this trade or call spread typically not the best trade skewed is not favor call spread buying call spread typically. Alright so the initial target for this setup was at 440 the 440 absolute gamma strike some consolidation at that level but price continued on higher after a little bit of consolidation up to 441 and note that buy stop orders help to continue to fuel the move higher up until about 12 o'clock. Alright so that was the long setup in the SB 500 the hero signal for SB 500 did did not provide the most clear signal let's go back and take a look at hero again zoom out so it took a while for that options traders they were up and down but hero started moving higher until around 1050 11 o'clock and let's go back go back to book map and that's when price was approaching this 440 level absolute gamma strike that was the call wall last week. Alright let's go back to hero now alright that's the SB 500 come back and look at the entire day so so far for today hero is trending negative now and that's pretty negative minus 2 billion so traders are buying puts today and that activity has been pretty steady since about 1045 buying puts and then right around 1150 they stopped buying calls they started selling calls sorry about that nothing I did alright so note right now both lines are moving down that's typically a pretty strong signal and notice the price responded up until about 130 when traders started buying calls again alright let's take a look at NASDAQ so NASDAQ this is the combined signal for NDX QQQ not very clear today not really providing much of a clue so in that case I like to look at this combined signal for the Magnificent 7 and there you go this is what has was certainly driving both the SB 500 and NASDAQ on Friday and again today so this is a combined signal for the second stocks known as the Magnificent 7 Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Tesla very very good leading indicator of price action very good confirmation let's zoom in on this so this is when price started to move higher just before 10 a.m. traders started taking positive delta positions and note very typical behavior right around noon just before noon traders take their foot off the gas stop taking positive delta positions and price moves lower consolidates alright let's go take a look at NASDAQ so we see this turnaround point just before 10 a.m. take a look at the NASDAQ chart so here's that turning point just before 10 a.m. just above the lower daily expected move let's zoom in on this just a bit and you can see the shift in order flow aggressive sellers on the way down falling yellow line indicates sell stop orders fueling that move lower then aggressive buyers start to come in and price starts to make higher lows as traders were taking positive delta positions in the mag 7 so the reversal point in the NASDAQ not quite as precise and this lower daily expected move upper daily expected move not as precise as the spot gamma levels and the round number levels let's go back to hero let's take a closer look and see what traders are doing and they were buying calls primarily also selling puts calls shown by the rising orange line sorry about that try this one more time very quickly rising orange line traders are buying calls rising blue line traders are selling puts when traders buy calls and a stock market makers sell the calls and they have to buy stock to hedge their delta exposure all right so this is the the signal I think probably the primary signal you certainly want if you're a spot gamma subscriber definitely want to bookmark bookmark this chart chart magnificent seven and take a close look at it every day all right so bullish setups in SUV 500 and NASDAQ driving price higher magnificent seven driving price higher just like they did Friday traders took a small break this morning and also Friday afternoon and now they're back at it all right let's take a look at some stocks so one thing I did today looking for a bullish day as I ranked my watch list down here below the chart by hero signal so this is showing comparing the hero signal to the last 30 days that shown by the entire length of the slider here and the dot is showing the hero signal today and comparison to the last 30 days again shown by the entire length of the slider and also the last five days shown by this colored portion here so you can see the hero signal for Tesla is the strongest that it's been the last 30 days and stronger than it has been in the last five days and that's understandable Tesla has been pretty beat up recently and traders are coming in and buying the dip in Tesla so let's take a look at the hero signal for Tesla this is really the stock of the day zoom in traders buying calls and selling puts call buyers more aggressive taking advantage of the low price and note the spot gamma levels in play 21250 hedge wall acting as support 217 call wall not much resistance and also now Tesla trading above the 220 key gamma strike let's go take a look at book man remember 21250 was the hedge wall Tesla traded down a little bit lower to the 212 level very clear shift in order flow magenta volume dots down to that level shift to green volume dots and aggressive buyers in all the way up to 225 passing right through the key gamma strike in the call wall note the liquidity target shown here in book map and the typically for a higher price stock like like Tesla the liquidity comes in mostly concentrated at the zeros and the fives and these are limit sell orders that come in in the book order book most of them at the at the cash open for a stock they'll typically stay in the order book until they're filled and those levels of higher liquidity act as targets for price very bullish day in Tesla let's take a look at a couple of other stocks want to go back to my hero watch list all right the next Amazon no spot gamma levels in play for today but a very bullish day timely flow alert traders are buying calls in Amazon this is the typical pattern traders take their foot off the gas and price consolidates Friday was not typical that there's really no pause at lunchtime the pause didn't come until late in the afternoon sorry about that zoom back out very sharp contrast traders taking positive delta positions take the foot off gas price consolidates let's go take a look at the book map go to Amazon and for Amazon the shift in order flow was not quite as clear mostly aggressive buyers on the way down and the way up but nice sharp V reversal pullback entries then options traders take the foot off the gas price consolidating right around 143 that liquidity in the order book at 143 the primary target above 143 50 kind of unusual to see that liquidity not at a round number but the price continues higher that would be the next next target let's just zoom out a little bit so above that note the liquidity stacked up at the round number levels especially 145 and then when you zoom out like this that liquidity at 143 50 becomes a lot less significant alright so that's Amazon let's go back to hero any questions IWM bullish day and IWM I don't have it on book map on this computer I haven't on running out on another computer but let me just check one thing right so so far today IWM just very slightly positive QQQ slightly negative I know Tom Sosnoff has been talking about a pairs trade with the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq buying the Russell 2000 selling Nasdaq so far he's not done well with that trade today but for the for the year but it looked like it is working today so traders are buying calls and buying puts call buyers more aggressive call shown with the orange line put shown with the blue line alright Caesar asked could we take a look at Tesla please already took already looked at Tesla that was the first stock that I looked at sorry I don't want to go back over it for everyone who saw it before please just take a look at the recording I guess starting around 210 maybe something like that I think that's probably when I got to Tesla so Caesar sorry you missed that but I did take a look at Tesla alright Shane I'll get to a few two in just a minute it may not be in hero I will see I certainly don't have I don't have that stock in in book map right so there's IWM and when I was looking this morning the next stock on this ranking list was Meta strong day in Meta note the 330 level key gamma strike call wall now it looks like prices consolidating right around that level typical pattern actually would just stick with this will pull back in the morning reversal hire is options traders start taking positive delta positions and they take the foot off the gas and price consolidates or move slower this pattern repeats over and over and over again let's go take a first one see what traders are doing so call buyers early in the morning call buyers and put sellers driving price hire wrong tool sorry and they stop selling puts and then stop buying calls and price consolidates let's go to book map take a look at Meta very bullish day in Meta Meta let's zoom in on remember the 330 key gamma strike call wall call wall breach earlier today so there's that pattern down this case down to the 326 level pretty close to the opening print aggressive buyers start to come in price moves higher to the liquidity targets above also again 330 being the key gamma strike and also the call wall price moves up a couple levels to the resting limit sell orders in the order book attracting price reversals at those levels so Meta doing a very good job today of moving from round number level to round number level now back down to 330 level note the all the aggressive sellers coming in you can see the accumulation of magenta volume dots couple of tests of VWAP there this is the blue line there like blue line showing VWAP let's go back to hero see what options traders are doing all right let's see if a few to use in here so sorry that stock is not available in hero heroes not available for every stock so not not available for that stock sorry all right any Z1 halts have any stocks they want me to take a look at meanwhile we'll go back to the go back to the SB 500 here looks like the hero signal options flow has somewhat leveled off still up and down in the range today kind of chopping around let's just take a look at shorter time frame see if that gives any clarity so in the shorter time frame it looks like just looking at the last 30 minutes of data that hero continues to oscillate up and down but now looks like it may be making a series of higher lows let's see what zero DTE traders are doing first of all for the day so making up a pretty large component of the notional value today that is minus 1.23 billion versus a total all expirations one point right now a little bit under 1.8 billion so around two thirds of the notional value today for options trades are in options that expire at the end of the day today zero DTE options trades and that is I guess really somewhat understandable considering CPI data comes out tomorrow morning traders are just trading not worrying about tomorrow when they're trading zero DTE options let's go back and take a look at the magnificent seven and starting to trend higher again let's go back to book map go to ES ES making its way back up to the 441 level high of the day check Nasdaq so Nasdaq broke out of this lunchtime consolidation range between 377 and 15,000 did one final retest around around two now trying to get above the 378 level let's see what Nvidia is doing today let's see what options traders are doing in Nvidia and Nvidia they're actually selling puts and selling calls so they're selling premium and Nvidia today but overall the notional value for options trades is positive right now around positive 88 million let me just check one thing I know Nvidia earnings are coming up so I think Nvidia earnings maybe maybe next week alright I'll check that I'll talk about that one that comes up alright last call anybody have any stocks they want me to take a look at Nvidia no gamma levels and play for today back the SP 500 book map Nasdaq let's see what Tesla is doing alright Tesla back to the 225 level let's check CVD so the move higher and Tesla definitely driven by not only options traders but aggressive buyers in the morning CVD levels off price consolidates on and around 225 below 225 looks like CVD is starting to tick up again you can see the green volume dots coming in aggressive buyers are back in Tesla alright Don says a whole new language I'm learning thanks Don I guess there is a lot of jargon and trading so yeah it just takes time if you have any questions about what I'm talking about both book map and spot gamma have great websites book map has a fantastic knowledge base you can search for anything in there a number of great articles and then also spot gamma has a great support center that is free and available to everyone so both book map and spot gamma free resources free help centers available whether you're a subscriber or not alright my time is up I want to thank everyone for watching thank you very much for your questions and comments remember CPI data comes out tomorrow morning could be a market mover and I'll talk about it tomorrow afternoon alright thanks again bye