 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread? That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire.com as we are getting you set for college football Championship week with Dr. Bob Stoll or Bob Stoll who be swinging by of Dr. Bob sports breaking down Championship week for college football where he sees value on the board this week My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire.com joined here as always by Ed Fang You can find his work over at the power rank. You can find Ed on Twitter at the power rank as well Ed Hopefully your Thanksgiving went well. How you doing today? I'm doing great. Yeah, I had a great relaxing Thanksgiving Got to watch more football than usual. So that was a was a big plus except for maybe the Michigan game But yeah, hope you had a good Thanksgiving to at least a Michigan game was exciting I know as like someone who lives in Ann Arbor the excitement factor goes down, but like there were points. That's fun Yeah, right. Yeah, there there were there were definitely points Yeah, I had to pay attention to a college football game again which is disappointing because Northwestern actually played well and It didn't happen until the last game of the year and they're often some coordinators still gone So there were really no downsides. That's a great weekend for me so I'm very happy sounds good as we move into Championship week and I think this is a fun one. I love the the Pac-12 game being on Friday night That's always exciting and it's just like I think that the Saturday slate is like my favorite day of the year From a sports perspective You still sit back and like watch a good game after a game like, you know, I was good, but like it's right Yeah, I mean the ACC championship is probably not gonna let your world on fire I mean Clemson could do some really fun stuff to try to press the committee I don't think they're gonna get the one but like, you know They don't want to be the four at least so well, I mean it'll be interesting, right? I mean, let's use what a seven-point favorite in that game So that means they should win but you know probably about a one and three chance. They don't so definitely not Certain that they're gonna win that game It'll be really interesting to see if they don't win that game what the committee does and whether it's still get in I think most people think they do because they just have such the track record this year similar with Ohio State but It'd be interesting to see those teams sweat a little bit losing on a late field goal in either one of those games Well, I've talked to the local likely to happen Against LSU then the Ohio State. I talked about Oklahoma's championship futures on this show earlier So I am really hoping LSU does not lose that would be terrible So desperately hoping for an LSU win to give Oklahoma still a chance to get in I don't know how they'd be viewed relative to Utah because Utah is really freaking good And I don't I think you probably deserve to go in but from a selfish perspective, Ed I kind of still holding on hope for all Oklahoma there Yeah, no, I mean, I think Oklahoma is certainly gonna be in the conversation They really haven't you know, I mean they haven't been lighting the world on fire kind of this last month Yeah, and Utah has so that certainly doesn't help them But I mean there when you know, if Georgia loses Oklahoma or and Presuming Oklahoma and Utah win there. They're gonna be in the conversation That night In the playoff and I know you'd and neither of them have to worry about Alabama anymore, right? Exactly, which is a big weight off their mind. Yeah We'll talk about that game in a second because I wanted the under in that game Whoops, we'll talk about that you cover in the past in just one second But we had to bring in Dr. Bob in just a bit you can follow doctor doctor Bob on Twitter at Dr. Bob sports in his website DrBob sports calm will preview the championship week for college football with Bob stolen just one second NFL preview We will capper tomorrow that'll go up on Thursday to get that make sure you subscribe to cover in the spread wherever you get Your podcast whether it be Spotify Apple podcast stitcher and while you're there Please leave a rating and review as well because those do help us out a ton We'll get to dr. Bob in just one second at first. Let's go back to last week, and I have some crowdeats. Let's go through that right now Covering the past all right, so last week on the podcast we had our Thanksgiving a preview extravaganza and Yuck Ed for me not for you on the college football side of things Let's go. We had the head-to-head first We had Wisconsin versus Minnesota you had Wisconsin minus two and a half I had Minnesota plus two and a half for shot Bateman got this long touchdown early I started feeling good it was snowing didn't think Wisconsin yelling like come back and Then Wisconsin just dusted Minnesota the rest of the way, so you were very right there and congratulations It was it was it was a solid game for you there. Yeah, they dusted them in a dusting of snow. Yes Exactly, and it was it was fun football the watch, but did not go well from a betting perspective for me Yeah, yeah, I mean, you know it was interesting, you know some of some of the models that I really trust Bill Connelly's Massey Peabody they had Wisconsin they had Wisconsin they had Minnesota in that game, so I Think Yeah, I mean so they mean there was definitely things on opposite sides of that game I still definitely did like Wisconsin. I think Wisconsin is a very good team We'll talk about them later in this big-ten championship game and the number of that is sitting in the markets right now But yeah, I mean what was Wisconsin did what they had to do and now they're now they're moving on Yeah, 16 and a half point dogs We'll bring that up with Bob here in just a bit But let's talk about the iron bowl because I mentioned I wanted the under on 50 points for Alabama versus Auburn And the reasoning there was back of quarterback for Alabama Mac Jones hadn't played a quality, you know quality team yet Bonix had been atrocious Against good defense is an Alabama's defense is nowhere near what it used to be But at least they seemed still good. They were not good There was obviously some weird turnover funkiness there some field goal funkiness But I had the under on a game at 50 points where both teams almost hit the over by themselves Which is suboptimal in yeah, it's it's suboptimal. No Jim I you know after you talked about that I went and looked at my numbers and I think with All the data from the season and obviously that's accounting for Tua, you know, my number had it at 54 You make an adjustment I think the adjustment should have been three or four points and I really did like the logic of What you were saying? I actually thought about bed knit. Yeah, I didn't good See I feel bad talking about it and getting it wrong I would feel worse if it inspired you to bed it and I got it wrong. No, no, you shouldn't that's that's my decision But what I'm saying is like I thought the process was good I mean, I'll I mean Auburn is the best defense in the nation didn't show it You know Mac Jones was pretty good and obviously like to defensive interceptions for for touchdowns one That was not Jones's fault at all like it went off of his His receiver into the hands of the defender for a hundred yard Touchdown run. I mean, it was a crazy game Yeah, and you don't expect that with Alabama skill position guys And it did not go my way. So lesson learned there We will move on to week to championship week next with Bob stolen just one second At first if you want to get in on the action check out the fans of sportsbook and place your first bed today If you lose Fandal will give you a refund up to $500 in site credit visit sportsbook.fandal.com for more details terms and conditions Apply must be 21 plus and physically present in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia or Indiana gambling problem call 1-800 Gambler, let's bring on Bob stole now find his work over at Dr. Bob sports comm and find him on Twitter at Dr. Bob sports We're gonna preview championship week for college football get his favorite beds of the week and get breakdowns on the four biggest games on the slate Covering the present Let's bring Bob stole into covering the spread of dr. Bob's Bob Dr. Bob sports Bob. I appreciate you taking some time here today. I know this is a busy week and a busy time for you How are you doing today? I'm always tired. I have all four sports going at once Football basketball college and pro. I have a two and a half year old and a three-month year old and a wife who needs my assistance So I basically do what I can during the day and I stay up all night long and sleep about two hours in the middle of night So you got multiple full-time jobs going on at once basically between you know being a dad and all this stuff and head knows I'm talking about absolutely Absolutely, and it's a lot to juggle and I think that that makes things more difficult We get set into college football championship week But the good thing is that there are fewer games to diagnose which is certainly helpful and Bob I was looking at your website dr. Bob sports calm and in your week 14 college ball recap You mentioned that there wasn't a lot of value in last week spreads I thought those very interesting things were late in the year things like that is That's something you've noticed this year and previous years for college football Where the spreads become more efficient as a year goes along and does that influence the way you bet college football? Knowing that that is coming. Yeah. Well, the spread do get more efficient I bet fewer games later in the year than I do and the math model cranks up in week five I there's there are weeks some years where I'm betting 15 sides right in week five or six because I just my math model just shows so much value I think my math model is really good at differentiating between schedule strengths I think that's what the best part of my model is and so that really comes into play when teams are playing conference games and there's various those varying schedule strengths come into play I find a lot of value in those weeks, but later in the year I think I had two bets and both of them were based on late information on a quarterback playing or not playing I go against Toledo as soon as I knew, you know, it was it was The third string quarterback and he's been terrible all year and The other one I was UAB when Johnson was and Johnson warmed up the whole game Warmed up before the game was suited up You didn't know until right before the game that he wasn't going to play and then Obviously, you know, North Texas didn't cover on an intercept return TD But nonetheless, those are the only two games I played and they were late information games Not Matt and not anything that stood out during the week It was a really strange week, but generally to answer your question. Yes late in the year fewer games But I also my math models tighter as well So I need a you know a smaller differential between my math and the line to make a play But but generally yeah, it's the lines are definitely tighter later in the year Excellent Bob will be interested to see what your model says about this week's games. Let's start in the pack 12 We have Utah versus Oregon, Utah is a six and a half point favorite Probably would have been quite a bit less three or four weeks ago But this is where we're at the total is at 49 and a half We get Utah's defense against Justin Herbert. What do you see in this game? You know, you know, if you break it down offense versus offense defense versus defense And I break it down running offense versus running defense passing offense versus passing defense and setter special teams gets mixed in a little bit But this game, I think the line I think Utah is a very very good team And I do think they're right there in the Oklahoma as far as being, you know Worthy of that final spot of Georgia goes down. What we have here is a Utah offense. That's little that's underrated I think I think humbly doesn't get the credit He deserves everybody talks about Zach Moss and for good reason But Utah's running game is actually just barely better than average on a on a yards per You know compensated yards per rushing play metric whereas humbly has been he's average 9.9 yards per pass play You know, I mean, he's been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the nation They just don't throw it a lot But when he needs to throw he can which makes Utah probably Relatively better than their offensive numbers because when he has to throw he can throw more And when he does there they become even more efficient But what you have basically is a Utah offense That's about 1.1 yards per play better than average Oregon's defense rates exactly the same And then you can like well, let's look at how each team did versus good defenses and Utah's You know Utah's offense did pretty well against good defensive teams They didn't play that well against USC But you remember Zach Moss was out early and then USC didn't have to worry about the run as much and they That was the one game that Hunley didn't average more than eight yards per pass except you know BYU in the opener and then the USC game where the only two games you didn't average at least eight yards per pass play Which is amazing Consistency, but you could maybe chalk that up to Zach Moss being out and USC not having to worry about that as much Which helped the past defense, but against Cal average 6.9 yards per play Which is not easy to do against Cal and they average 6.3 yards per play against Washington So they proven that they can move the ball against good defenses and Oregon's defense Has been a little bit suspect versus better offensive teams They give up 6.9 yards per play to Washington 7.2 yards per play to Washington State 7.4 yards per play to Arizona State the only team they really shut down that was good offensively was USC So Oregon's defense while really good overall for the season tended to struggle relatively against better offensive teams So I think that matchup edge goes to Utah If you look at the other side of the ball when Oregon's got the ball They're probably overrated offensively. They've only been 0.8 yards per play better than average compensated That's worse than Utah's offense And Utah's defense is one of the better units in the country 1.7 yards per play better than average and they also go three and out a lot They do not let you you know get down the field. They limit the number of plays you have which makes them even better So I think Utah has an advantage on both sides of the ball in this game I ended up having Utah by eight My my math model total is 44 and a half But there's gonna be wind and rain and Santa Clara's that drops at a few points You see the totals already dropped in the market and I get 41 and a half if you count the expected wind and rain Of course, it's a little early to know exactly how it's gonna be some sort of sort of projecting there But I lean with Utah in the under in that one interesting And how much does weather factor into your model because I it's good to account for weather But actually factoring in the model is like another step to that So how much does weather? Factor into the equation for you when you're betting side betting totals It's something I've added more recent I've never really focused on totals a lot at all and my model is pretty good in totals early in the year When the weather wasn't a factor later in the year didn't work as well I was like that doesn't really work as well. That's probably because of the weather So I didn't bet totals later in the year I started adding Weather factors And you can you know in the NFL model I have not only do I do I account for the weather in the particular game, but I account for the average the average scoring conditions faced Season to date interesting So if you faced a lot of bad conditions and then play in a dome You're gonna get more of an advantage than a team that plays in a dome who's playing in a dome You know so as far as scoring goes so our total scoring I should say so you can take it to another level not just adjust for the for the for the game based on the wind and Precipitation wind and rain But you can also adjust for the weather conditions you faced so far this season Which which you know is something I do in the NFL But not not that's a lot of data to keep for college I sort of just you know, I can I can eyeball it and say well You know for dome teams that do make an adjustment, you know sort of a second adjustment But it definitely factors in and I I do it on a I do it on a yards per rushing play and yards per pass play basis with a weather effects passing Far more than running hardly affects running at all And so if you are an option team in bad weather, that's gonna relatively help you There's a good example when Georgia Southern played Appalachian State On a windy cold night on the Thursday night or a Friday night game Georgia Southern runs the option Appalachian State You know, they run a lot They also depend on their pass game and Georgia Southern's run defense is actually a top 15 unit compensated So I thought well Appalachian State's gonna have to run more and they're gonna run right into the strength of Georgia Southern's defense Where Georgia Southern's not gonna be affected by the bad weather because they run the ball 85% of the time anyway I just thought it was about four points worth of matchup value based on the weather. I Ended up playing Georgia State in that game. They won the game when they came straight up or to lose it at the end I think they won the game straight up. That was Appalachian State's only loss So whether does play a factor in my model to answer yes, and a long answer But yes, it does and it's more and more recently in the last couple years I think that's very interesting with the 49ers playing in the Superdome this weekend in the NFL after a couple of rainy games out East recently so that could be interesting there for sure. Let's move to the big 12 now Baylor against Oklahoma It's in some interesting line movement here, too. Oklahoma now favored by eight It was nine earlier and the total has risen it is 64 and a half now It was 62 and a half on Monday, and we saw this this matchup already It was between Oklahoma and they generated this huge comeback got the win there 34 to 31 How do you view the spread in this game? Oklahoma minus eight given what we saw in that first matchup? Well, you know the first I think people can overreact to one game, right? You know Baylor was up 28 to 3 so you say well it wasn't it was a three-point game So you could say well Baylor really hung tough with Oklahoma, but you can also say Oklahoma outscored Baylor by 28 points in the second half. I mean there's there's two ways to look at it So you I started just kind of as one data point. I don't I don't put extra weight on that one particular matchup Actually the my line of scrimmage rating, which is a combination of yards per play and play differentials, etc Oklahoma line line of scrimmage rating was plus 15 points So they won by three, but they really now gained them by more than 200 yards and dominated the ball You know so Baylor maybe had an early lead, but you know, Oklahoma fumbled ball five times You know, they were they were as sloppy as they've been all year They lost a couple of those fumbles and they had an interception of two as well So I wouldn't put too much weight into that. I do think the spread It's you know, here's the thing about Oklahoma is their their yardage Their their points don't match it to the yardage their yardage their yards per play stuff is so amazing And the total yards is so incredible. They should be scoring more points than they are I think a lot of that has to do with a lot of that yards comes on big chunk plays in the past game and That doesn't necessarily translate to scoring in the red zone. So I think the red zone efficiency is not equivalent to their overall Overall level of offense. So they tend to score less than their stats would project So there's two ways to look at it. I could say well based on the stats. I have Oklahoma by 13 Based on the points I have Oklahoma by nine and the compensated points model and sort of in between is where I think this should go And I get 11 and a half Okay, so I do think there's value on Oklahoma here and the total I get in between where it open to where it is Now I get 63 and a half So I probably leave the Oklahoma. I don't think I'm gonna play the game, but I definitely leave with Oklahoma Yeah, Oklahoma has been super interesting big just because you know Jalen hurts It feels like you know big 12 defenses have kind of been able to figure out the passing game And he's been running a lot more. So that's a you know, that's remarkably different from what you saw the first four games Where Oklahoma was was throwing a lot and getting more of those those chunk yards Any thoughts on that in terms of kind of their play selection and how they've decided to The runs pass splits. Well, I think it was running quarterbacks and hurts is one of the he runs when he needs to run I mean, he might have a game where he runs five times because they didn't need to explain Kansas or something But you know running quarterbacks are tricky you can you can make Nick Saban about this Relatively running quarterbacks do relatively better against great defenses Because you know Alabama had trouble with Manziel and with Cam Newton He just go down the list and the Auburn teams when they had a running quarterback other than Cam Newton as well They Alabama's always had trouble new England's had trouble in the NFL against really good running quarters You just saw that with Lamar Jackson I think the reason is you can have a perfect defense called and players Playing the scheme perfectly and a running quarterback can just blow that up and gain 25 yards Right and whereas a non-running quarterback is gonna be shut down on that plague The defense was called correctly and played correctly. So I think relatively running quarterbacks I found you relatively better against better defensive teams and Baylor is a is a very good defensive team In fact, they haven't allowed more than 5.6 yards per play to anybody including Oklahoma Now Oklahoma ran 84 plays to get their 524 yards in that game. That's 5.6 yards per place. That's really impressive Baylor's Baylor's played really well all season against against good Against good offensive teams on yards per play basis. That's the one thing that I find interesting But I do think if Hertz needs to run more, he will run more. So that gives them an edge. I think Relatively in this game. Yeah, because when he has run, he's been crazy efficient too. So that's definitely not not a bad thing for Oklahoma if he winds up doing that more often. Let's move to the SEC championship game here We got Georgia versus LSU LSU is favored here by seven points a total 54 and a half and we might be getting a matchup between the best offense in the nation against the nation's best defense So how do you see this one playing out here, Bob with Joe burrow against Georgia's defense? Well, uh, first of all, Ohio State's easily the best defense in the nation, but Georgia's got a Georgia's got a very good defense um Their defense is one and a half yards per play better than average and they they force a lot of three analysis Well, LSU's offense is two and a half yards per play better than average So LSU does have a better offense than Georgia's Georgia has defense and here's what LSU's done against other good defenses they faced Uh, they average 10.9 yards per play for 42 points against Florida That's amazing. Now. Let's maybe throw that out as an outlier So then they've had Auburn and Alabama and Auburn is probably the team that is most like Georgia as far as defensive rankings go Alabama's not quite in that level, but they're still very good. They average 6.0 yards per play and only scored 23 points against Auburn So, I mean that's that's sort of a negative for LSU, but they also average 7.4 yards per play and scored 46 points against Alabama You know, so you combine just those two games even throwing out the florida outlier You you see how they did against Auburn and Alabama and they were 3.1 yards per play better than better than Average relative to who they faced whereas they were 2.6 yards per play better than average overall So relatively they did play better versus better defensive teams While Georgia played about the same versus the relatively in the yards per play compensated yards per play basis When they played good offensive teams the best offensive teams they faced were Notre Dame, Florida and Texas A&M Which are good, but no one great. They have not faced a team like this You know and in those games they give up 17 17 and 13 points But I think LSU is so much better than any team that Georgia's faced this year um, it'll be interesting, but When the models all said that the model just looking strictly at You know every game counting the same would would favor LSU by only five and a half points But if you weight it based on you do it sometimes I do regression analysis based on How each team has done, uh, you know, maybe I take the yards per play based on the The yards based on the level of the defense and find if there's a there's a pattern a positive negative slope Like I said, LSU plays relatively better against against better defensive teams That factors in a little bit Georgia's offense has not been as good versus better defensive teams They've they've been much worse versus better defensive teams than they have early in the year They they put up huge numbers against non-conference opponents They got into the sec and their offense got really stagnant So relatively they're not as good versus good defensive teams even though LSU isn't great defensively. They are good defensively Uh, so I end up when you factor that's the thing I get I get LSU by 7.2 points and a total 58 interesting So Bob, let's go on to the last game. Uh, the big 10 championship game This was Wisconsin versus Ohio State Ohio State's a 16 point favorite with the total at uh at 56 Ohio State has been on a roll and they continue to be on a roll last week They did, uh, you know The first half was kind of close in in the first time they played Wisconsin, but they did pull away in the second half Uh, what what are your numbers seeing this game? I'm particularly interested in the side because 16 seems like a lot of points for very against the very good Wisconsin team. Yeah in the first game, like you said, it was kind of close early But Wisconsin couldn't move the ball the whole game And it was just a matter of time before Ohio State, you know, the offense started to click Um, they out game them by 245 yards and 6.2 yards per play to 3.7 overall You know, they won by 31 the line of scrimmage rating as I've discussed before was plus 23 points They really dominated that game. I don't think it's going to be quite that way this time that one was at Ohio State And that was the only game in which Wisconsin's offense was really shut down by a good defense In other games against good defensive teams They played really well relatively against Michigan Michigan State Iowa last week against Minnesota The only time they haven't played relatively better than normal against a good defensive team was against Ohio State That could be an aberration could be something about the matchup in that particular Matchup, but I I I tend to think that You know more more data against good defensive teams is more relevant than the one game versus Ohio State's defense I think Wisconsin generally plays good against good defenses relatively Of course, Ohio State plays pretty good against against good defenses as well I mean against Michigan State Northwestern Wisconsin Penn State Michigan, which are the good defenses they faced They were 2.1 yards per play better than average Um in those games overall they were 2.0 yards per play better than actually a little bit better versus better defensive teams And Wisconsin defense was a little bit better versus good offensive teams. That's sort of a wash Uh, Wisconsin's offense a little bit underrated. Like I said, they played really well aside from that one game against Ohio State They played really well against those good defensive teams But Ohio State against the good offenses was relatively better as well Uh, Indiana, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Penn State and Michigan were the good offensive teams that Ohio State's defense faced They only gave up 4.2 yards per play in those games. Which is just incredible Um, but when it's all you know all said and done, I think the line is a little bit high I get Ohio State by 14 and I get a total of only 54 points even though it's in a dome which adds scoring Uh, so I think the total is a little bit high. So I think the second game goes under Yeah, I wanted to ask you about the total too because when the first time these two teams played It was 51 and a half. It started there. I like the over Uh, and then, uh, I think that I think the market moved to under 50 And this time you see it open at roughly the same value like 52 and now it's up to 56 So are we really saying it's almost 10 points because they're playing in a dome this time? Or do you have any thoughts on that? The dome add points, but really the dome only add about three points based on my model. Uh So I yeah, I think it's a little bit overblown. I I'm not exactly sure why Why, uh, you know, Wisconsin also slows down the game. So Ohio State's not going to have as many possessions as they normally do I think maybe that's not fact anymore. This just it doesn't look extremely high Like it's almost 56 and a half and I call it 54 and a dome So it's not out of hand and I'm not going to bet the under But I do think there's some value. You're looking at the under I think there's some value there and a little bit of value on On on on Wisconsin getting 16, but also not something I'm good or bad I just right I say it is just such a dominant team if they really want to turn it on They could be better than they then they are in general So And you know part two you're talking about Wisconsin's pace like they should want to go slow here too Like you should run Jonathan Taylor every play you should make this thing As slow and as sloppy as humanly possible because when you're a 16 and a half point dog against One of the best teams the nation you want to buck things up a bit So I think that that just kind of feeds into that it makes it even more extreme than it already is what they're off Yeah, yeah, I think they're gonna have to you know, actually what's interesting is I think Ohio State's the only team in the country that actually allows more yards Well, maybe there's a few but they allow more yards per rushing play 3.8 than they allow yards per pass play 3.5 So you are better off I mean not that not that wisconsin if they know wisconsin's going to run every time I know how it's going to be able to stop it But I have wisconsin average in 5.1 yards per rushing play and only 4.5 yards per pass play So they might as well run the ball Or normally in better weather conditions is being a dome you do throw more But I have in my model. I didn't factor that in. I'm like, what's Wisconsin throw more Right, you know, so I know they're probably going to run more Which which which slows down the pace even more than it already does So Ohio State's not going to have the number of possessions that they normally do You know, so I just think there's some value just because of that You also give Ohio State less chance to to increase the margin Which is probably why I've got two points of value On the dog and two points of value on the under, you know, probably, you know, probably tied into the same Interesting. Yeah, those definitely are related for sure Anything else you see on the board you like here for championship week, bob We talked about the big four games. Anything else stand out to you as of right now No, I'm not betting anything this week. I don't value in any game I I I mean I haven't done the full analysis on everything yet But just I've done I've done it on these games because we were going to talk about it today I don't want to be prepared but any other games I'm glancing at the model. I don't see anything worthwhile Maybe I'd go against uab if uh, johnston doesn't go again, but I have but he's going to play I don't know. I mean, he's suited up and warmed up last week He actually went in for a play and through a pass So I don't know why they were holding him out last week, but I imagine he'll probably play in this game Um, but then again, if they had lost last week, they wouldn't have been in this game So that was an important game and he didn't play I think if johnston doesn't play for uab, I might look to go against against uab This week, but other than that, I don't really see anything All right, that is bob soul. You can find all of his work over at dr bob sports dot com bob I really do appreciate you swinging by taking time out of your two full-time jobs effectively and chatting with us for a bit I appreciate the time and good luck this weekend. Hopefully we'll talk to you again soon. Hi guys. Appreciate it. Thanks. Have Thanks for having me on Covering the future All right, one final thank you to bob still for swinging on by again find all of his work over at dr bob sports dot com And find him on twitter at dr bob sports net I think the interesting discussion there was wisconsin plus 16 and a half because I think that game is fascinating. I have been hesitant to go against ohio state this entire year and it sounded like your model Likes wisconsin too. Is it enough for you to bet it or are you just just wary of diving in? There Yeah, my model says 10 and a half points. I mean, I think 16 is such disrespect for what this wisconsin team has done I think they're an excellent football team Um, you know when when I look at their top 10 and my justice success rate on both sides of the ball Jack cone has been I mean, obviously jonathan taylor is the most important piece on that offense I think he's the best running back. I've seen in college football Over the last couple years. I think he's significantly better than barkley Um and cone's been really good. I just think this is a really good team um You know, I thought about talking about that for covering the future. I thought about betting it I decided no so far on both of those I guess i'm done for talking about it, but but it's interesting, you know Because there's difference between betting and what I want to talk about on this show Because if I tell you something on the show, um, that I that I think has value But then you look like a complete ass The the following week that that that doesn't feel good for anyone talking about it or listening to it And you know, I think you know another example rufus peabody came on my podcast like early in the year And he's like, yeah, I'm definitely taking miami and this was this was early in the season Yeah, when they were you know, they were hanging some big numbers They were there were some big dogs and he was talking about that Yeah, yeah, exactly and that's just another example. It was like I personally would not talk about that game Right. I would bet it but I don't want to talk about it on the show and you can definitely see the character of these games, right? I mean, there's a lot of you know, for example, like that michigan state rockers game Taking the under like there's a pretty low probability that you're going to get embarrassed in that game, right? Knowing those teams you could lose, but you're not getting embarrassed You can get embarrassed with oh, uh, you know wisconsin plus 16 and a half I actually just with what's what's going on with ohio state I get that. Um, there was a game between the jets and the giants earlier this year And I like the jets a lot because I thought that they were two and a half point dogs Um, because it was right after that that miami loss and I was like I refuse to tie my name to the jets after this dolphin's game. They're a volatile team. I hate them I did bet it, but I refuse to tie my name to it. It worked out But like there are some some situations and now michael turbisky is back in that zone because I Bet the the bears plus six and a half talked about it here on the show And turbisky couldn't score eight points. So there are certain situations where it's like I feel good enough about to I feel good enough about this talk about it or I feel good enough about this to bet it, but there are different things if I talk about it I feel good enough to bet. I'm not going to give you a number that I don't feel good enough to bet But there are numbers I will bet that I do not want to talk about publicly All right, all right, exactly. And I actually we should mention like that alabama albur and game that we just talked about That was one I would put a low probability of getting embarrassed in two. So it's not Even if it doesn't look, you know, we hit that full end of the range of outcomes there. It was great Exactly you get stuff in the tail and and sometimes it happens in the arm bowl Yep, it is one game and we are on to championship week And we'll talk more about championship week in just one second at first and and I always preach searching for the best value Embedding on games. I'm not sure you could have gotten a total of 90 in the iron bowl, but hey, you know, whatever But you can look on odds fire and that's the new odds comparison They've developed over at numberfire.com odds fire is the premier odds comparison experience across major bookmakers in the regulated US market compare odds quickly identify the best value and even examine first party fan dual data all in one place Never settle always get the best odds check out the experience for free now on number fire or at odds fire.com gambling problem call 1800 gambler Let's move now into covering the future and ed you want to talk about georgia versus lsu in this sec championship game What did you see in this one here? Yeah, I mean it's been a rough road for for georgia's offense the last couple weeks They they they haven't looked particularly good, but I think you really do need to keep in mind like who they've played All these teams have top 20 defenses by my adjusted success rate texas a&m arburn, missouri and and florida So that's a tough road for any team and I think The one thing that I am very confident about what I do is adjusting for strength of schedule with the algorithms that that I use And and even some that I've developed myself So when you look on offense like georgia's offense is 10th my adjusted success rate After adjusting for for schedule and I think I talked about this a couple weeks ago. I forget which game I was talking about Their offense is probably better. Like it certainly hasn't been explosive But I think it's a better offense than What has happened on the scoreboard? I think they're going to be competitive with lsu's seventh ranked defense so All right a couple assumptions here. Deandre Swift is going to play I presume I know he got banged up in the last game. They're leading receiver george picken is out for the first half, but he'll be back for the second Their third leading receiver laurence cageer is out for this game So that so there are those those caveats as well On the side of the ball lsu's offense has been a revelation. We've talked about joe burrow the best in the nation that Adjusted success rate georgia's defense has been good as well. When I look at adjusted success rate They're the 12th best defense in the nation They're actually a lot better when you look at yards per play When you adjust that they're fourth And it's interesting to me because this is the second year in a row that they've looked better by yards per play than by success rate And I'll definitely be watching this game to see whether that scheme or what they're doing You know, are they are they are they playing guys back to prevent big plays? Maybe something akin to the air yards that bob talked about when we had them on to talk nfl But anyways, my number Says the total should be about 60 and a half I think there should be a little bit of a downward adjustment just with the injuries that georgia injuries and suspensions that georgia has at receiver But I do think there's value at over 54 and a half In this game And I think that one thing that's worth considering here is that Lsu is potentially locked into the the college football playoff But you kind of want the style points to lock up that one seed but elliott He does he rotates in on the newsletter for banner society and I'm subscribing to that and there was an email from bud today Talking about how the value of the one seed this year is higher Because the three seed is likely to be so good. You don't want to face the three seeds There's essentially the line of thinking there You went back through the past couple of college football playoffs looked at the strength of the three seed this year whether be, you know likely clemson And relative to other years and how much you want to try to avoid Facing a basically clemson in the first round And I think that that adds juice not only to lsu, but also to ohio state like you want to impress and That could lead you towards the spread But I think that the more impactful thing here is the total because I think that you know lsu going to try to run things up a little bit and It could also just be me being delusional But I still think that jake from is a talented quarterback who is held back by his system And the system cannot hold him back as much if they're in catch-up mode Like if they need to make up points, they're gonna let jake jake from throw it deep Again, I don't know if this is me being delusional where I think that Everything that jake from does like check down king is a product of the system But I think he is a talented thrower who can go deep when he needs to and I think that that helps Lends itself to the over as well Yeah, so I think you know I'm definitely looking for lsu maybe to be up two touchdowns at halftime Right and then things could work out pretty well for for going over right jake from can be efficient Like last year his adjust yard's pretend was 10.1. Yeah, that's a really good number And yeah, I mean that helps there was a ton of Turnovers receiving core and we know that receivers like own the air yards or how far they go at least in the nfl I'm suspecting that the same thing is true in college as well. I wonder how that's playing out You know in addition to to what's going on with the playcalling Exactly So I think that that I would agree with you there the over is pretty enticing so Ed wants the over in the sec championship game I want to talk about a game we did not discuss with bob and that's Memphis versus Cincinnati, which the game we actually just saw Last week and Memphis is a nine and a half point favorite here And I think the spread between these teams the split between these two teams Is actually a little bit larger than the the tote or the spread here implies because if you look at number fires rankings It has Memphis 17th overall in its power rankings whereas Cincinnati is 33rd And obviously Memphis's offense should be able to do work here since 90s defense is very good But Memphis has like a top 10 in national offense And I think they should move the ball here But I think their defense is a little bit underrated too. Memphis is 33rd in defensive sp plus according to bill connelly of ESPN So it's not mind blowing But I think it's better than perception when it comes to Memphis whereas Cincinnati's offense is 70th So if you look at this matchup that they had last week and bob did talk about how you don't want to overvalue one match But I think people could use this matchup to say hey Why would you want Memphis nine and a half when They just lost by 10 in Memphis last week They're back in Memphis again And now they're starting likely they're starting quarterback They started a red shirt freshman ben bryant in that game It sounds like desmond ridder should be able to go this time around which Could skew things more toward since and natty But ridder I don't know how much of like an addition that really is for since and natty He's played the full year and he's averaged 6.9 adjusted yards per attempt So I would assume he's a bit less erratic than bryant because bryant had some sacks had a couple of picks last week Probably less erratic which makes it less volatile But I don't think it's necessarily a lift to this offense and Memphis's offense was really good in that game They averaged 6.75 yards per attempt there since natty was at 5.29 So ridder would need to lift this offense quite a bit in order to erase the gap between these two and again This is a championship game, but it's a ac which means that it is actually in Memphis It is not a neutral site which is important to keep in mind here If you look at number fires metrics, they have Memphis is a 12 point favor for this game. So Getting them a nine and a half. I think seems fully appropriate. You can get this number at nine in some places I believe it was at 10 earlier in the week So things are shifting towards since natty. I'm assuming that's because ridder is More likely to play now than he may have been earlier in the week But at nine and a half. I'm still good rolling Memphis. So do some price shopping here See which lines you can get if you can get nine take it It's a nine and a half the Fandalsports book right now that I am actually okay with that number for the aac championship So I've got Memphis minus nine and a half And do your numbers have any lean on this game between Memphis and Cincinnati? Yeah, it's I was just looking at I mean my number says nine and a half But when you break that down when you just look at the database on this year It would push it up to almost 11 and So obviously it's being pulled down by a little bit of the preseason prior and you know since then it was definitely pretty You know highly regarded coming in coming into the season. I agree with you about desmond ridder I don't think he's actually been good either of the two years he played Kind of had some incredible third and long numbers last year that really helped That offense Despite the fact that they didn't look good in adjusted yards per play not much has changed. I'm looking at it right now I mean, they're like 81st in adjusted yards per play this year And a lot of the numbers like agree with you that that Memphis is just better on both sides of the ball We know what they do on offense, but with defense they're 30 second my adjusted success rate Um, you know, which is actually better than either Cincinnati. It's a better rank than Cincinnati's offense or their defense so Yeah, I think the I think the logic is sound there. I think Yeah, the numbers definitely do like Memphis there and I wouldn't mind holding off on this one Because given that the movement has been towards Cincinnati so far like if you want to hold off I think that's probably not a terrible idea But if you can get it at like eight and a half, I would definitely go then But I think even at nine map. I'm very okay going to Memphis in this game for the aac championship game Should be a fun week of football. I had to look forward to seeing how things go down Should be a delight. Again, like I said, this is one of my favorite weekends of the entire year get to sit back I remember like the dr. Pepper advertising throughout always made me drink dr. Pepper when I was a kid During the championship week like it was weirdly the most effective advertising And I had a very acceptable line to advertise. It's like that should be noted But like I would consume a lot of dr. Pepper back in the day because of this so It's a fun weekend. Larry cold pepper. You're kind of guy. No, um, the marketing has changed significantly Since then I think at this point the the number of ads for dr. Pepper has just flooded my brain And I just can't sum out of anymore But I just remember fond memories of being in my parents basement Watching the big 12 championship with like Darren's scrolls or whatever it was back in the day That was it was always a good time. So looking forward to this weekend What do you have coming up over on the power rank and on the football analytic show for this week? Yeah, I mean, it's definitely sign up for my email newsletter at the power rank dot com Usually give a sample of predictions. I usually say for paying members of the site I remember bull seasons coming up and I'll give you a bowl cheat sheet that'll let you easily You know, if you're in a hurry Fill out your bowl pool with with confidence points So you can do that at the power rank dot com and I have not done too well in those recently So I'm gonna check that out for sure and I'll go to the power rank dot com to get that You can follow ed on twitter at the power rank. I am at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast on twitter Big thank you to calvin thea ball from the video side of things for today Thank you cal as always for keeping us on the air there and chopping up clips for the at fan dual twitter account Thank you to bob stole for joining us for today breaking down His bets for championship week across college football find his work at dr bob sports dot com Finally a big thank you to all of you for tuning in for today back again tomorrow the whale capper to break down week 14 Across the nfl subscribe to covering the spread to make sure you get that Right as it is posted. We'll talk to you again Then this has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network