 I'm Jay Fidel. This is Global Connections. And we're in touch with Carlos Juarez, who was the, I guess, the principal of this show. And this is about global connections. Today we're talking about Americans standing in the world and how it took a big hit on election night. And it's taking a big hit today on counting day. So hi, Carlos. Thank you for joining us today. Hello, Jay. It's a great to connect. And I apologize. I've got a little bit of a weaker connection today and a poor lighting and just not the best of all situations, but we will do our best. I certainly hope you can hear me, but I'm always, always excited to reconnect. And, you know, we'll talk a little bit in particular as well about some of the foreign perspectives or how the world is seeing this U.S. election unfold because the world is watching. This is an election that has tremendous repercussions, not just for the U.S. politics, of course, but really for the world. The U.S. has a global power, global leader. And needless to say, the world is looking like many of us in shock or at least confusion, the chaos, all the, you know, bewilderment. It's a very messy process. And so looking at it from the outside, it's there. But we'll unravel more. What are the implications for, let's say, the future of the U.S. role in the world? It's foreign policy and relations with so many parts of the world. Everybody is interested to see what's going to happen. And yet here we are still living in the midst of this very messy process. It's democracy in action, ugly, kind of like that metaphor when you don't want to know how they make the sausage and taste so good. When you start opening up the umbrella, you know, the hood of the Pennsylvania electoral laws and, you know, at the end of the day, we have to remind ourselves that we are really seeing 50 separate elections that are happening that are all coming together to take on this indirect election of the U.S. president. Also, that's a system that is not common in the world. You know, most places, certainly in most democracies, you have a vote, you count the ballots and the one that has the most wins. I mean, obviously, a little more than that, but you do use majority popular votes for the most part. The U.S. does not. And it's a question. We invented the system. We invented democracy. Exactly. We're the oldest continually existing democracy. And for many, many years, and gosh, most of our history, the world has looked to the U.S. as a beacon of hope and inspiration. Today, they are bewildered and obviously a little more skeptical and, well, confused. So there you have it. But I think, you know, let me let me throw this thought at you. We have a country where roughly half or very close to half of the people in the country have voted against their own interest. They have voted. They have voted for somebody who has singularly failed to deal with COVID. They have voted for somebody who has been a racist, an isolationist, a disaster in terms of international trade, a disaster in terms of the economy, who has been mean and it was lied to us 22,000 times. We have voted for a guy who has essentially wrecked the economy and or a lot of institutions. We have voted for somebody who the Latinos have voted for somebody who has been anti Latino, anti immigration. It's clearly for most people, if not nearly all of them who have voted for Trump, it's against their interest. And I don't think we see that. I mean, I do, you do, but I don't think that that half of the country sees that they're voting against their own interest. But here's the point. Outside the U.S., if they've been reading the paper and watching television and they have, they can make that conclusion and they can say, gee, this is a remarkable phenomenon. Half the people in the country are voting for somebody who's going to take away their benefits, who's going to make life worse for them. And they cannot, they understand that. It's clear enough, but they can't, they can't understand why. And that's the remarkable thing. I mean, we don't look so good, a country which votes against its own interest. Well, Jake, I mean here, I, you know, I certainly appreciate and even share your views, but I will tell you that that may not be something that many will agree with. And what do I mean by that? Of course, you know, there are different reasons people will choose to vote for Trump. And it is astonishing that 68 million Americans will. However, again, I would say it's not a single monolithic vote. Some of them are voting because of him over certain narrow interests, maybe a very conservative evangelical who prefers his choice for Supreme Court justices, or he's going to defend that narrow interest of, you know, abortion rights, or I'm sorry, I guess anti abortion. And on and on, I mean, but no doubt, the world is bewildered because yes, in some ways, politicians in many other democratic systems usually come in through, you know, the more traditional route as politicians. Donald Trump is almost exemplifies this American entertainment industry. You know, he was a reality TV star, although of course a business person as well. And yet, at least in many of the democratic systems of Europe, it would be unlikely that you would see someone like him get through. So there's that element. Other than that, I mean, again, I think what we are left with is unprecedented on so many levels, both just the sheer outcome, surprising also the largest participation rate we're going to probably see in 120 years. So Americans came forward to vote in large droves. Let me clarify, you mentioned that the Latino vote, they certainly helped him in South Florida with Florida, but we're going to wait and see the outcome. Don't forget in Texas. And some in Texas, too. I think what it's going to help us dispel is this idea that we often hear the Latino vote. Well, guess what? It is about as diverse as America as a whole. And so you have a small percentage that are voting for Trump. And I say that because the Cuban Americans are an anomaly. I understand that. It's, you know, it's not monolithic. Just one set of views. But on the other hand, he has marginalized them. He has threatened them. He has done terrible things to Latinos in and out of the country. You'd think there would be some perception of that, some understanding of that. Why in the world would they vote for him? What has he done for them? Nothing. He has only beat them up. I find it remarkable that he could reach them at all. And yet he has. Well, again, I would just say this. I mean, you have, let's say, a Texas Latino who is by now fully assimilated, Americanized and they have values that are no different from that Republican Texan concern over the, you know, migration more as a illegal issue law and order. In other words, there are conservative Latinos, and they are thinking just as any other conservative American, their interest is not necessary, their own Latino identity. Many Latinos in the US do not speak Spanish anymore. They're essentially Americanized. And increasingly, those become just reflecting interest in values that are more typical. That's very different from a recently arrived immigrant who obviously, you know, will have a different set of values. But maybe again, I would just add this to I mean, one of the puzzles that we continue to see is the US and the erosion of its its role in the world community, because traditionally the US has been the architect of the international system, it has been the leader of the, you know, international multilateral system. And today that image and that perception is gone. The US under under President Trump obviously accelerated that it was a process already happening in the post Cold War period, we saw the US kind of retrenching somewhat, and also dealing with a changing world, the rise of China, the rise of the EU, the rise of other regional interests and emerging powers. And today, now the US, especially, I guess what I want to suggest here is given the chaos of the selection right now, it just sort of helps to push further a very poor image of the US as a place that doesn't have its act together. Here we are in a worldwide pandemic. And what does the US under Trump do announces that it's going to exit the World Health Organization? I mean, by what rational explanation can you say that? Trump says it's because the Chinese are controlling it. Well, no, the pandemic is a global issue that requires coordination cooperation. It requires a multilateral effort to develop the vaccine to, you know, distribute it to make sure that the developing world and all meanwhile, the United States is basically missing in action and not at the table. Well, you know, if I were somebody living in Europe, let's say, and I read the papers on the TV, and I saw that the US was spiking worse than ever before, was 100,000 cases per day now and getting worse. Extraordinary. Okay. And he quits the World Health Organization. He disregards the most authoritative, you know, experts in epidemiology. He picks a radiologist to advise him. I mean, move after move. And he talks about herd immunity, which nobody believes in. And so what I get is if I'm in Europe, if I'm sitting there in France or Germany or name any country in the EU, and I see this happening, and I do, I see this happening. It's all available. I say this is irrational. And not only is he not only is he the president having been elected in 2016, but, you know, he had a good percentage, no matter how you calculate it, nearly half of the people in the country agree with him. So what are they? What are they likely to conclude? He's irrational. That's obvious to everyone in the world. And then the country agrees with him. So the conclusion I would make in France or Germany or anywhere in the EU, so advised, I would say the country is irrational. The country is on this huge big sweeping decline, maybe irreversible decline. Isn't it so? Well, it is a widely shared view, certainly very common among the elite that are more plugged in and those that are, let's say politically savvy, because again, he's an enigma. This would not be likely in Europe. Beyond that, I mean, I would say that just like the US, I mean, the average person, you know, the baker that's toiling away here, their interests are not so much that instead, they know from their history and by a large, most Europeans do have a more historical context. As you well know, as a college teacher, I teach students in US and Europe and in Mexico and Europeans by and large, of all types, even if you're a business student, you have a pretty good understanding of the historical context. And I say that because often in the US, we don't. Most Americans just don't understand what the international, you know, liberal order refers to. It's not, you know, and whereas Europeans will, so they are bewildered. Yes. And they look at this and it erodes the image. So I think there's a generational change today. The Europeans of now are not looking at the Europe of their grandparents. Because certainly, after World Wars one and two, the United States, you know, it gained quite a bit of support from Europeans who saw the US, you know, come to their rescue, help develop and build those countries. Today, the US does not have that image. And we talked in a previous show, Jay, about the plummeting image of the US. And it's a, it's been obviously accelerated under Trump. But we have to, again, repeat this. He didn't bring it. It wasn't something, you know, somehow that just begun with him. He simply accelerated this process, obviously, taking it faster and deeper. And, you know, just in ways that are unprecedented. Even as we think of the time when he may be gone, assuming he loses now, he'll be no longer president. The reality is that look, half the population is voting for him and what he represents. And so those issues are going to remain divided in the country. It's a polarized nation. And yeah, I think, as you suggested a minute ago, I mean, the world is looking and shaking their heads like, Oh, my gosh, how can we move forward with this? That aside, I mean, if we do have a transition to a Biden presidency, it will be an important task, and it will not be immediate or overnight, but there will be an effort to try to go back and say, Hey, wait a minute, you know, let's, let's, I like to talk about that with you. Take my hypothetical Mr. Potato Man, Frenchman or German, reading the American newspapers, looking at the websites, watching all the MSNBC, what have you. Okay, and he sees what's going on in here. He sees how we have utterly failed to deal with COVID. He sees the ineffectual useless trade war. He sees the lies that he hears about the 22,000 lies. You know, he sees all these, you know, failures, failure of checks and balances, a failure of the rule of law, he sees all this. And he says, Oh, you know, the American system is declining. We better put our, our marbles somewhere else. We better, you know, connect up somewhere else or find a way to replace the American participation in the world order some other way. But then now Biden wins. Not what that's going to happen like today. There'd be litigation and all, but there's no, there's no real indication that it needs to be turned over. It's not going to be turned over, not quite. Biden will be the president. Okay, now Biden's got he inherits the problem. Many, many, many problems that we could go on all day, just listing the problems. Now my hypothetical Mr. Potato Man, in France or Germany is watching Biden like a hawk, because Biden is the, is the savior. Let's see if Biden can fix this. Because if he can, then we know that we were right to keep on believing in America. In our hearts, we kept on believing in America. But if Biden fails, and Trump will do everything he can, and Mitch McConnell will do everything he can to make Biden fail, then my European person is going to say they're really sunk. You know, the better guy won for president. He's a reasonable man. And he can't lead this country either. They're done. They're toast. We have to turn our backs on them now. If we are to survive in our own new world order. What do you think about that? Well, I mean, it is a view I think that some will have. I would say that while Biden will certainly be first, many of the actions try to, you know, move quickly to improve those ties. The erosion of let's say the image and the trust is something you simply can't, you can't paper over it. So it will be hard to, for the US to go back to where it might have been. But I think that's necessary. The US is no longer the global superpower it once was. I mean, it's still the largest mill of very large. Okay, no doubt. But it's playing in a different world. There are different geopolitics, different dynamics. Now, having said that, I certainly believe as an internationalist, a global, you know, globally connected person, the United States needs to be engaged in the world. It needs to be, you know, with the seat at the table, it needs to be collaborating and cooperating. And there's so much that it can offer and it just needs to be there. But it needs to be there in a more realistic way, more humble, more with the seat at the larger table, and not with you know, the taller seed or the dominant seed. And that's not easy. The US has a obviously a long history as a superpower as a big bully. And it is not easy. They have I think the US has to come forward now in a more humble way. But responsible. And again, you know, it's going to be a challenge or like anything when you have broken trust, it doesn't happen overnight. So the actions will begin to define that. Under Biden, we will probably see immediately reconnecting to the Iran deal rejoining, you know, the Paris Climate Accord, he said he would do that right away, holding back and reversing a lot of what Trump has done. Now, that's again, that's going to be seen positively by many abroad. But beyond that, I think there's probably already a recognition that the US is no longer going to be the reliable partner, the partner that's going to be the dominant one. And yes, increasingly, they're looking elsewhere, whether it's the Europeans looking to partner with, you know, the Russians or the Chinese or Latin Americans and vice versa, everyone else from Mexico, where I've been now these past years, a long time, there is certainly a growing awareness that the US as difficult as it has been, you know, forces us to look elsewhere to look to Asia to look to South America to look to Europe. But unfortunately, for Mexico at the end of the day, the US is the big, big, big neighbor. It's going to always be its most important external factor. But it doesn't mean that they're not looking more. And I think everybody is today looking elsewhere. And the US has to step into that reality. Again, I say this word with more humility to engage, but to show through its actions that it is committed and interested in, and it values, you know, democracy versus non democracy. Unfortunately, with Trump, we have seen the erosion of democratic norms and values. It is not unique to the US, we've seen the same happen in Hungary and Poland and, you know, other countries in Europe, particularly those. And this is simply part of the same or even, you know, the chaos in Brexit in the UK, very similar to the Trump story, it's a grievance, it's a frustration, it's a, you know, changing identity, all of these and it's very complex because some of what's happening in the US, as you know, Jay, is racial inequality and injustice. And that's something that the world is also seeing with bewilderment, because the United States is in many ways a model of a country that had, you know, terrible race relation problems, massive, you know, reform, what, 50, 60 years ago with, you know, civil rights movement, which inspired many other social movements around the world as well. And, you know, leaders like Martin Luther King have long been, you know, idolized and venerated throughout the world. Today, I think the world looks at the US bewildered, you know, with the tremendous police violence and the racial riots. So it's, I think, left many people bewildered, confused. Yeah, well, let's, let's go, let's go to a negotiating table. Say, trade deal, health deal, who knows what, in Europe, and Biden, President Biden's got his man there, old woman, representing it, maybe United Nations, you know. And while, while this individual is telling them that it's a new deal now, we're going to do the right thing, we're going to try to be reasonable and humble and, and reconnect with you. There's Trump back home, making trouble, making trouble on conservative radio, making trouble in the streets, you know, sending out dog whistles to skinheads and, you know, militia, whatnot. And it's in the paper. So the fellows at the table, right opposite the American representative, they say, well, you know, thank you for your humility, and thank you for trying to reconnect and, and patch up the relationship, you know, that we, we lost when Trump was elected. But what are you going to do about that? What are you going to do about the trouble in the US? It sounds to us like it's simply more of the same. And you don't have the clout come here and say those things, because the real America is so divided that you'll never get your act together. What is what does our US representatives say at this international nexus? Well, first, I would say the typical European diplomat is not going to meddle in probably say that, especially if they're, you know, in a more formal setting. But that aside, I would say this, I mean, Europe has its own right wing populism raging in many places. So, you know, it doesn't take more than just look around the corner and see that we've seen it rising in Italy and Spain and Greece and Austria and Germany on and on in France. So I guess I just want to say that on one hand, yes, the Europeans will be disappointed that the US is kind of languishing and has all these problems. But it's not as if somehow they're going to look at it with somehow, you know, clean, you know, home themselves. Other than that, look, it's going to take time. There's no question about it. Obviously, the new administration will come in and make overtures. I think the damage done to our reputation and it's not just Trump, although he has certainly done most of it. Before Trump even arrived, the Europeans were already looking at the US as a sort of, you know, drifting away from its commitments, obviously not in the same way. No question about that. But I guess I'm just trying to make sure we understand Trump comes along and just sort of railroad through what is already happening and to an extreme. And now we have to sort of turn the ship around a little bit, get back to, obviously, the United States as a global power must be engaged. And that engagement has to happen. There's no way around it. The US still exercises tremendous power. It is, you know, still going to be influencing some of the developments with Europe, the NATO alliance and different activities. And to the extent that it is engaged, it will have a seat at the table. Right now, it's not engaged. I mean, Trump is not dialoguing or doing any negotiation, other than, you know, fighting them over trade issues. But there's not a lot of cooperation and coordination. Witness the pandemic. I mean, the US is sort of completely jump ship. And that's just, it's astonishing. You know, Biden will come back. But I mean, I guess, you know, from what you're saying, is if they're not going to take it seriously, well, I think in the end, they're going to be grateful that the US is back. But hoping that the US also understands that it's, it's going to have to come back with a different attitude. Yeah. So speaking of attitudes, I don't know if you recall, but there was this fellow Simon Winchester at the East West Center, and he wrote a book called Pacific and it was a different chapter for every situation, every geopolitical confluence in the Pacific. And, and one of the chapters was about the South China Seas. And this was actually before it became a headline story, he isolated, he identified this. And he said, look, the Chinese have been, you know, they felt that they've been under a thumb for a long time, they're, they're reemerging, they have the economic strength, they have the, what do you want to call it, the political will, you know, to, to take a position South China Seas, and they really mean it. And they're going to build islands, and they're going to, you know, keep everybody else out, they're going to, they're going to, you know, they're going to defend their territory or perceived territory in the China, South China Seas. And, and his lesson was this, and it struck me when I read this chapter, because I, I was not comfortable with it. He said, the US has to recognize that it's time in Asia has gone. It used to be, you know, in charge of the South China Seas, it used to be in charge of Asia, after the war. Same thing like Europe, you know, we had tremendous power there, our Navy, tremendous power. But now we're, we're on defense. And, and we're losing that. And, and Winchester made it clear that we have to learn to live with an historical international process that takes us off the top. We have, we have fallen from grace, fallen from power in Asia too. And I think that's not only so when he wrote it, but it's, it's increasingly so now. So, you know, what do you, what do you thoughts about that? How do they feel about our troubles here? And our decline, arguably? Yeah, no, I mean, I think what you've described, and I'm trying to remember, I think if I'm mistaken, I read a book of his years ago that had to do with the journey down the Yanxi River, where he described the whole history of China in some way. Fascinating, but I'm curious to learn more about this one, because I think this theory, this idea that you've suggested in the book is very much what is happening. And that is the US is having to adjust to a changing reality. And I'm not the expert on the South China Sea. I mean, obviously, as an international relations professor, I know the gist of it, but it's not my primary focus. But I would agree that the US may have interest there. But look, those interests are evolving, you know, Taiwan, which for so many years was the sort of powerful treaty ally. I mean, today, people are questioning, would the US come to its defense and China decided to, you know, re-incorporate and whatever, who knows. But otherwise, I guess, I think it underscores how important it is to understand your history and to study it. And certainly, you want to hope that our policymakers, our diplomats, our military professionals. And I'm happy to say that I see that, I'm going to teach many of them, and they need to understand the history. And not just from the US perspective, we need to know how are the Chinese, how are the Japanese, how are the Vietnamese, how do they see the world, and what is their story. Because obviously, there's so many dynamics going on there, you know, the role of the Chinese, which is expanding. Well, even in this very ambitious Belt and Road Initiative, very exciting on paper, the reality can often be a very tense, you know, sort of super power rivalry going on there, the Chinese and their influence. Well, anyway, I just think it, for all of us, it's important that we know the history and know the broad history, not just the single textbook or the view from the US. Because the US has a certain view, given its power and weight, that it has a role there, and it's always been there, and so it should be there. Well, that's changing. And, you know, so I'm intrigued. My point is we go to the table. Now I'm talking about a table in Asia, not in Europe. We go to the table, American representative, and he carries with him the sense of, you know, humility. And we recognize that our position has changed and your position, China, has changed. And we're sorry about that trade war. That was really regrettable. We won't do that to you now. We're going to reverse that. And I don't know what exact attitude our representative can take. He can say, well, you know, that was the previous administration. We don't think that was the right thing to do. We would like to have a more robust and, you know, equal-to-equal kind of a relationship with you. And then they look over his shoulder and they see that the Biden administration is under attack by Trump and those conservatives back in the U.S. So not only has the U.S. lost, you know, world standing, but the representative from the Biden administration doesn't have the support, the true support of the nation behind him. So it's a double whammy. Am I right? I don't think so. I think our diplomats are good enough, and I know many of them, I've helped train a few of them, that they know how to walk that dance and to play that role. And moreover, I think that the diplomats of, and I'm speaking here maybe at the elite level, at the masses, I don't know, it just depends on who has links or connections, but certainly the elites, whether they be, you know, diplomats or business interests, they also know that the U.S., you know, has this sort of tradition of, you know, liberal conservative and they know that it were deeply divided. And I would just reassert this, okay, we're not the only country in the world. I mean, you can look at a lot of other places, even neighboring Mexico today is a polarized society, parts of Europe we have, you get growing, you know, right wing populism in some places. So the world is deeply divided and the U.S. exemplifies it and maybe takes it to another level, no doubt. But I have faith ultimately that, you know, those who represent the U.S. interests, and many of them are career diplomats. Now, some have left, and you know, even our dear friend who you must know here, the local Patrick Bronco was a diplomat most recently, a former student of mine. He's now just been elected to the House of Representatives, representing so I give him as an example because he faced this challenge of a young diplomat, you are serving the country as a whole, whoever the president is. Well, Trump came in and no doubt he pushed out a lot of our diplomats, but not all. And yet there's going to be a continual replenishing and there are enough, I believe, career civil servants who are going to be relieved with the transition and they will do their job effectively to go represent the interests. Often that means explaining the puzzles of American politics, of course. But at the end of the day, I think countries, you know, there are different interests they have with the U.S. and maybe trade ties and maybe security connections, those are going to flow and continue and they'll have their challenges no doubt. But I guess I want to say that different places, different countries, all have some engagement with U.S. for some it might be even popular culture and, you know, Hollywood and movies and whatnot. Sure, sure. There's always the American shtick, so to speak. But I want to mention one other troubling scenario. Okay, look at what happened in Hong Kong. It's really travesty how we abandoned them. And Trump is trying to get friendly with Taiwan. And so, you know, you have this whole issue of what do you want to call it? Trust. It's trust. So I go into an area, say it's Hong Kong or Taiwan and I say, don't worry about a thing. I'm going to be with you. I'm going to take care of you. We're going to have a mutual arrangement of some kind and I will be your defender. And the question is, the guy on the other side of the table says, thank you very much for that. But whether he says it, you know, in a formal way or an informal way or he just thinks it, you're going to say, can I trust this country to make a deal with me, that they're going to protect me, defend me, be my buddy, be my, you know, be my ally, or am I not going to believe them because I find that they're, you know, whether it's trust or Biden, I'm sorry, Trump or Biden, I cannot trust them. Isn't, haven't we lost standing in the trust department? Absolutely. I mean, there's no doubt the U.S. has lost credibility, prestige, image, trust, all of that, no doubt. But again, I would just go back to like anything, like a personal relationship. Yeah, you can run away from it and it's all over or you can gradually rebuild and through action, through patience, through time, that's where the U.S. I think it's going to take time. It's not going to happen overnight or quickly. You know, even we talk about a Biden, I mean, how long is he going to be there? Is he going to be an eight-year president? Your guess is as good as mine, but obviously the U.S. is in transition and part of that means re-engaging with the world, trying to rebuild that trust, not going to be easy. I, I sit, I certainly go back because I had, you know, the privilege of working with some of our diplomats outside of the U.S. and, and help train some of them. This is the challenge they face, how to build support and trust and, and it's through actions and through personal relations. If, depending on the culture and society you're in, I mean, you well know it with, certainly with our Chinese counterparts, this notion of Guangxi. I mean, it's not there today. They're going to have to work hard to develop it. A lot of, a lot of personal connections that are going to have to be rebuilt. Not an easy task. I certainly agree. And for that matter, you know, whoever wins the presidency, if it's Biden, as we are expecting or Trump, they're going to be facing a very challenging reality, you know, continued pandemic, a crisis of the economy, a divided society. Well, good luck. I mean, so once we finish the election, it's like, it's not a piece of cake and it's going to continue to be struggling. And as you've mentioned very much, Trump is not going to go away. He's going to, we'll see how he morphs it to some other social movement or maybe some kind of media, etc. But that will be a factor we will continue to deal with. Well, thank you, Carlos. I'm sorry, these days I always fall on the dark side of these questions. No, no, no. Democracy is working. I think it's more constructive. Democracy is working. It's messy, but in a few more days we'll be kind of moving into the transition. Of course, it's unpredictable. We don't know what will happen. Donald Trump, you know, could throw more monkey wrenches and yet I want to have some hope that somehow our institutions and our, you know, we'll just survive this and we'll move on and life will be back too well. Again, not normal, but back to the next stage. Okay. Yeah. Well, you know, next week I want to get Alex to talk Bill on the show and I want to ask him what he meant by the word tumultuous and whether it fits within his definition. These are tumultuous times by any measure, of course. So thank you. Thank you. Thank you always to reconnect on this. Always, always nice to talk to you. Thank you so much. I'll see you shortly. I'll see you in two weeks. Take care now.