 Hey everyone, this is Mike Kramer of Mock Capital with a check-in for this week today is July 31st And it's around 415 New York time markets in the US are now closed From here on the rest of this week is going to present a lot of economic data That could be very influential on markets on rates on the dollar And so it's worth taking a look at least at some of the ones that are coming up for tomorrow Instruction spending 0.6 down from 0.9 Jolt's job openings a very hard number for analysts to get It's also prone to major revisions So it's not only important to look at the Jolt's number which is expected to be 9.6 million Coming down from 9.8 million But it's also incredibly important to pay attention to the revisions from last month ISM Manufacturing 46.9 up from 46 ISM prices paid 44 up from 41.8 no estimates for the employment or new orders indexes So overall it looks like we're looking for a slight improvement in the ISM manufacturing index But we're also looking for job openings to continue to decline So again just pay attention to these numbers These tend to have an impact on the market because everyone knows that Powell watches the Jolt's the number of job openings Powell watches the unemployment rate the number of people unemployed and he looks at it as a ratio Looking at this number and saying that the number of job openings the number of people unemployed is still at a historically high level And he's trying to get that number of job openings to come down in hopes that he can cool the labor market without actually having To raise the unemployment rate. So again, these are somewhat important numbers tomorrow Obviously as we get into the end of the week those the importance will grow even more with with ADP on Wednesday And then of course, you're gonna get the big VLS job report on Friday. So these are gonna be market moving numbers They're gonna have an impact basically on what what happens next in terms of Equity markets rates and the dollar here in the US. So what's interesting is that again? We had this big engulfing pattern on Thursday. We haven't really done much since with an inside day on Friday now conventional wisdom Would say, okay, well, we had a big engulfing pattern on Thursday We had an inside day on Friday that probably means the market moves higher on Monday in a big way because maybe all the sellers are exhausted and While it looks like there's a nice big green bar here with just we were up only 15 basis points and the day is Very deceiving because all the gains really came in the final 15 minutes of the day. In fact going into the last 10 minutes of the day the index was down about 15 to 20 basis points So you can see there was a big 30 basis point reversal in that final 15 minutes of the day even 10 minutes to be honest if we look at it from this standpoint You can see the big reversal came right here at 350 and that took us up And it almost took us back to the highs of the day But what's interesting is that it really didn't because it managed to just get us back to the highs But wasn't able to actually surpass the highs from the early morning or the highs from the late day This actually looks to me like a fairly weak pattern given that we were selling off all day And the only reason we rallied was the last 10 minutes of trading which could have been today was the last day of the month So it could have been some sort of more month-end rebalancing taking place So this is an interesting pattern because basically, you know, you had this big bearish decline Bulls tried to take the market up and all they've been able to accomplish at this point It's really not much of anything because at best you can say this is just merely, you know a retracement of about This is just merely a seventy eight point six retracement and nothing else has been accomplished So all the efforts on Friday at least to take the market higher have failed to this point So if you're bullish and you want to see this rally continue I still contend that you need to take this high out fairly early tomorrow For that to happen to this point They haven't been able to get beyond the seventy eight point six percent retracement level clearly you take out this high early That could set up a move higher And beyond forty six hundred but until that happens This is beginning to look like a pattern that would suggest we actually Retrace and fill this gap at forty five forty just because of the sideways Consolidation we've seen and really the bulls haven't been able to get the job done to really indicate that they they are still in Control of this marketplace. In fact, they haven't really been able to accomplish much of anything since July 19th And it could be a sign that they're becoming Exhausted at this point after using a lot of energy to get the market to this point in time When we look at the NDX very similar looking right here's our big, you know Barish and golfing pattern came already well off the high which was on July 19th We rallied pretty big on Friday unable to accomplish anything on today The only reason why the day looks halfway decent is because in the last ten minutes You had a really big move in the market again, probably due to month and rebalancing And again the big vulnerability here at this point now is a gap filled back to 15,000 460 unless you can take out this high here at 15,790 or so, you know that changes things Right, but until this happens, you know at this point, it's beginning to look like the bulls are just running out of Running out of ammunition across the board you can see again just unable to really make any upward movement on the NDX When we look at the Dow Jones You can see again also in the final 15 minutes of the day 10 minutes a day You've got a big 24 basis point move higher and 11 so almost 35 basis points in the final few minutes And all it did was take you back to the high basically a Friday So again not really cutting it and all you've seen so far at least between the Dow and the S&P is just You know a basically a seventy eight point six retracement you can argue a little bit more here But this is so close that you can't it's hard to say it's not within the range either And again, you can say that this is just a little bit over seventy eight point six percent But it's also one could easily argue that this isn't really much outside of the range And so again, you really want to see the market open higher above this thirty five thousand Five seventy region tomorrow with some sort of authority to make a move to thirty five thousand six hundred otherwise You're looking at a big, you know sort of straight-line rally into the close and You know with this type of setup here It doesn't take this gap fill at thirty five three hundred off the table either So it wouldn't really be all that surprising to me to see this market actually gap lower tomorrow and undo some of this end of Day closing end of day rebalancing action that looks like may have pushed the index higher into the close Finally, we'll just touch on a couple of other little things that I think are important for tomorrow Oil prices have been moving up rather steadily. We're now at a point in time where oil is at this eighty two to eighty three region This has been a very challenging place for oil since December of twenty two you can see one two three prior times up here each time they have failed and resulted in a retest of the lows around Sixty five so again if oil can manage to get through this eighty two to eighty three region There's really nothing stopping it from getting to around ninety three Why is this important will because we know energy prices heavily influence Inflation and that's another thing that you need to watch obviously with, you know ten-year rates If we start getting better than expected economic data starting tomorrow and you start seeing Oil prices really continually to move higher You have to think that there's a good chance that you're going to see Ten-year rates move above this 408 409 region and potentially move back to four and a quarter and maybe even take out this high and you can say the same thing about the 30 year which is Basically found support now around four percent But really needs to make a move now above 405 because once it does There's really not much stopping it from getting back to this 430 region on the 30 year So right now rates are going to be really dependent upon, you know Where oil goes where the economic data goes and then of course that's going to feed into the dollar because if you continue To see rates in Europe sort of stagnate that's going to put you know upward pressure on the dollar And especially if the conversation begins to circle around The EC may be finishing before the Fed in terms of a rate hiking cycle that could also push The dollar up so again overall not much really accomplished in the S&P 500 and the broader stock market indexes over the last couple of days You know, I think at this point You might really start seeing that the momentum has started to shift from the bulls to the bears only because the bulls really Haven't been able to show very much since July 19th. I know yes again You can point to and say yes the S&P 500 made a made a new closing high here But you can also easily argue that we've been well within the range of on the intraday charts for the last Couple of weeks now. Anyway, that's all I have for you today. Have a great rest of your week. Bye