 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Game one of the NBA finals coming up tonight between the nuggets and the heat We broke down that game and that series yesterday with Tom Vecchia We also talked some Stanley Cup finals of Tom So if you want some thoughts on that make sure you check that those out over on the covering the spread podcast feed today Baseball Slade starts pretty early So a bit of an open day which means I wanted to go back to the NFL schedule release not talk about the schedule release itself because that's over with done with but instead talk about implications of the schedule and specifically I mean Knowing which teams to bet is one thing Knowing when to bet them is another and also very important because you want to make sure you're getting the best number So what we're gonna do today is break down some teams with tough early season schedules relative to their games later in the year and outline Which teams it might want to be worry about futures markets right now? Potentially under the hope of getting a better number in season once they've gotten through the tough part in that schedule We'll talk about that. We'll also break down some for me the one for Barcelona and NASCAR at Gateway Welcome on into covering the spread. That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonness. I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire here to talk some NFL Once again here on the show and then get to some racing later on should be a fun one as always We'll dive into the NFL stuff first You want to skip ahead to the racing stuff and check out the timestamp in the episode description? Wherever you get your podcast the first as a reminder again those NBA and NHL shows are up via Tom Vecchio over on the covering the spread podcast feed and also over on the Fandall YouTube page So if you want some thoughts on game one for nuggets and heat or for the series prices series price in the NHL as well Check that out on the covering the spread podcast feed and over on the Fandall YouTube page If you like what you hear leave us a thumbs up on YouTube or leave us a five star rating wherever you get your podcasts it is almost time to crown an NBA champion and Fandall wants you to be a part of the excitement because right now new customers can get a no sweat first bet up to $2,500 that's $2,500 back in bonus bets if your first bet doesn't win There's no better place to bet all the finals action than America's number one sports book Fandall Official sports betting partner of the NBA must be 21 plus and president select states first online real money wager only $10 deposit required refund issued is non-litrable bonus bets that expire in 14 days Restricts and applies see full terms at fandall.com sports book Fandall is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or visit fandall.com RG in Arizona call 1-800 next step or text next step to 533 for 2 in Connecticut 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org Chet in Indiana 1-800 9 with it in Wyoming in Kansas 1-800 522 4700 in Kansas KS gambling health comm Louisiana is 1-877-770 stop in Massachusetts gambling helpline MA org or call 803-750 5050 for 24 7 support in a Maryland and be gambling help at org in in New York 1-8778 help and wire text open why and in West Virginia go to 1-800 gambler net Now let's begin things off here by talking about these NFL schedules and again It's important to know when to bet teams because if you are going to get a better price later on It's better to wait. Maybe some things will transpire Maybe some things will happen like with the Texans their last year at the Sean Watson where they had a tough opening four games Struggled there and then torpedoed the rest of the year You want to know if a team opened things up with a relatively difficult schedule to know Maybe I didn't want to bet them now and I can get a better price in season So I'm gonna run through four teams Whose early season schedule is tougher than their late season schedule. We can dive into what that means with the futures market I'm gonna start things off for the team. You might not care about in the futures market But there are still implications of their schedule. That's the Tennessee Titans They have their buy in week seven and I have the Titans as underdogs in each of their first six games Which is weird because I actually don't have that bad of a rating for the Titans in my model I think the most controversial game as far as making them underdogs for this dress is going to be the Colts here in week number five That game is in indie I think that's kind of the key to cider here as far as making the Colts favored Basically a toss up there But the other games as you can see if you're watching on YouTube are the Bengals Ravens Chargers Browns and Saints The Titans expected record heading into the buy is a little bit better than two and four based on my numbers That means we could see them pull the trigger and swap out Ryan Tannehill Four-wheel Levis at some point after that buy. I think Tannehill is still fine Honestly, so which is why I'm a bit surprised that their dogs and their first six games by my model And I'm not as high and levis so to me that would be a downgrade it would hurt their outlook the rest of the way and positively impact the rest of the teams in their schedule by my numbers the Titans seven most Winnable games all come after their buy week I'd be worried about a tear down if things don't look at initially because they've had Based on the way they've operated each of the past two off seasons It seemed like they've had their eye toward the future justifiably each the past two off seasons. So Wouldn't be shocked if things get a bit interesting here if they don't come out hot The biggest ripple effect for me is that the Titans face the Jags twice after their buy week So if things do get pretty shaky for the Titans that could benefit the Jags And so did the Texans the Texans actually face them twice towards the tail end of the air which it increases the odds at Levis is the starter over Tannehill I am in line at the market as far as wind totals go with both the Jags and Texans So I'm not leaping to bet overs on them But I'm also in line with market on the Titans and I want no part of that I do think that this means hypothetically. Let's say the Titans going to the buy week They sneak out a couple wins in our four and two that means they could be pretty interesting as far as futures markets down the stretch So this can go both ways where maybe we want to avoid Teams early on but then maybe we're not getting the best number We can have more confidence in that number if they show a lot of strength in that tough schedule Even if they get to 500 that could imply to me the Titans could be feisty given again There's seven most winnable games all come after their buy week. The defense here is good So I'm a receptive to that But for me the bigger implication is what that could mean a slower start could mean with regards to Levis Tannehill that dynamic Again, I'm a lot lower on Levis and Tannehill. So if that's which were to occur I would be a lot lower on the Titans and Hire on their opponents on the stretch specifically benefiting the Jags and the Texans as a result The second team with a noteworthy early season schedule is probably of more interest for you in the futures market That is the New York Jets Their schedule gets a lot tougher down the stretch are a lot easier I should say down the stretch but the the beginning part for the jets is pretty tough Their buy is also week seven before that week seven buy They face the two teams that were in last year's Super Bowl. So they chase in the Eagles They face the Bills and the Cowboys other two games in there are against the Patriots and Broncos So more winnable games there, but the Broncos game is on the road in Denver. We know elevation can be kind of tough So that's difficult The schedule does open up a lot after that the three easiest game for the Jets are after their buy week a to their Easiest nine games are as well So I wouldn't be shocked if we see the narrative emerge early that Aaron Rodgers was not a big upgrade for the Jets because they could struggle to Get wins early on based on the schedule alone. I would disagree with that personally. I think he is a big upgrade, but I'm fine holding off on buying into the Jets futures market until we get through those first six games and dive into their buy week I've got the Jets at nine point seven wins their win total is nine point five with minus one eighteen on the over if Markets were to overreact after the opening games They could be primed for an in-season over or if they do well in those games again It could show that they're a legit threat to the Bills at the top of their division I've got the bills at ten point one wins So point four wins above the Jets that gap may seem kind of small But the Bills facing a tougher schedule than the Jets are that that matters quite a bit So I think the Jets are at least worth monitoring If you like the Jets and you're higher on them than I am where you actually do want to buy in a futures markets right now I'd hold off because that early season schedule is very difficult. We've seen Aaron Rodgers led teams You know r e la x and surged down the stretch So I would wait if you want to bet the Jets futures I'd wait see how things play out those first six games need to get a better number than you also lock up Bankroll for less time if you bet the futures market later on so The Jets are a team after their buy I want to be pretty invested and pretty interested in what they look like they're what they could look like down the stretch The Jets neighbors their I guess roommates at MetLife are also pretty interesting in this regard the New York Giants Interesting spot to begin with where they made the playoffs early in a rebuild and that has shifted expectations But my worry here is that they may get a pretty big reality check early on on their schedule In their first six games. They do get the Cardinals and Seahawks Those are both very winnable games the Seattle game is tougher, but they're at home for that one The Cardinals game doesn't matter where it is to be fully honest So they can win those two games, but I have the Giants win probability Under 40 need to their other four of the six games though They face the Cowboys 49ers dolphins and bills in that time the 49ers dolphins and bills games are all on the road so through the first six games I Have the Giants expected win total at 2.4 It does get a lot easier after that, but you kind of got a wonder about psyche at this point You know because they made the playoffs they got a lot of guys paid What happens to this team if they struggle out the gate? I've got their their win totals at 7.5. I'm a bit below that at 7.35 personally But if you're hiring the Giants, I'd want to hold off before investing because that Cowboys game is at home But if you look at fan dual sportsbook Cowboys are three-point favorites in that game. I have it at 2.9. I believe So right in line at the market there. It's pretty difficult. So If you wanted about the Giants futures, I'd hold off I don't think people are looking at divisional futures But if you want to bet like to make the playoff markets and stuff like that Be a bit wary just because things start tough Not really sure how teams may be may react given the dynamics with their not like saying anything like Brian Nables a great coach. Maybe he can overcome that but I would at least keep that in the back of your mind when considering the Giants The final one I want to touch on here is the Carolina Panthers because their schedule is also Pretty noteworthy for me because I'm hiring the Saints But a lot of people view the NFC South as being pretty wide open Which is fair Saints aren't on a great team but they have a pretty high win total by my model because of the schedule they'll face and You could view that that is translating to potentially buying into the Panthers in the NFC South. I Would not do that right now. I have the Panthers as underdogs needs their first six games They do get the Lions while James and Williams is suspended Which is a bump up for the Panthers in that regard because that game is in week five Williams will not be back as of that time. So that's a positive but that game is still in Detroit and I've got the Lions as almost touchdown favorites there. My model likes Detroit a lot So maybe that's a bit too high, but that's where I'm at with that one then they get the Dolphins That is their lowest win probability game of the entire year for me Which says two things and it says that you know met want to hold off on them But also it means that their schedule is pretty easy after the buy Things do look a whole lot better for the Panthers. They get the Texans right out of the buy They get Indy Chicago their first three games post buy and then later in the year They also the stretch where they get Atlanta Green Bay and Tampa Bay all at home late in the year They could end things on a very positive note to me I biggest takeaway here is to check out Panthers in season win total I'd want to see what that is heading into their buy week if the market is very sour on the Panthers and They haven't given huge reasons to worry in terms of like once you adjust for opponent how they play there I think that we might want to give them a sniff in terms of an early in in season win total over It's a new coaching staff new quarterback new weapons They might take time to jail anyway, which is also an argument favor of the Jets waiting on them But the schedule is winnable for the Panthers just not at the start So they're a team I want to look long and hard at once we get to week seven And they have a shot to reset So this futures market this the schedule analysis is really kind of two-fold where it's looking both at which teams You might want to be wary on early on in terms of buying the futures market now Getting a better number later on but it's also then to keep in the back of your mind as far as okay In season this team has gotten through what we thought would be their toughest stretch Do I want to buy into them now and potentially? That a futures market that a division market bed and in season win total over stuff like that I think we'll have a segment later on we talked about teams with easy early season schedules where you might want to buy in early on To get the flip side of the coin maybe a letter MLB day later on but for now. I think all those teams The Titans Jets Giants Panthers It's very know where they to me that their early season schedules are a lot tougher than what they'll face in the later part of the year Let's transition now and talk about some formula one formula one this week is in Barcelona throwing things up at Monaco from last weekend the toughest thing to account for when it comes to modeling formula one I think at least is upgrades because You don't really know how big of an impact it'll have you can get rumors You can hear win total data, but how much of that is always true There is a lot of guesswork involved and for this week Ferrari is bringing Upgrades this week and it's the second week of Mercedes upgrades It's the first two tests of those upgrades because Monaco is such a unique track and very different memory track on the schedule I think it's very possible as a result these upgrades my model is underestimating Mercedes relative to where the market is right now and Even with the potential for me to be too low on them My model shows value on George Russell to finish in the podium. That is plus 350 a fandal Which is 22.2% implied. I'm at 22.4% Typically, I'm not taking that point two percentage points of value not enough at that margin But I think for this week specifically I am going to do it once you account for those upgrades now Mercedes Just one podium so far this year that was by Lewis Hamilton in Australia But they've been four three separate times to which we're by Russell the tiering is definitely Red Bull one which occupies two spots because it's Max Verstappen and Checo Perez Fernando Alonso in a tier of his own above Mercedes as well and then depending on the day either Ferrari or Mercedes Depending on which one, you know happens to fit the track pad or stuff like that Now Mercedes has the potential to be faster. Maybe that helps them bridge the gap between them I'm not saying Red Bull. They can't catch them right now, but like maybe that gets them closer to Fernando Alonso Russell has been good in qualifying. He's actually out qualified Hamilton in four out of six races and His race pace has not been bad But he's also been below Alonso and all but one race and he's been below Red Bull, obviously But he's been at least some power of Charles Leclerc, if not stronger than Leclerc a lot of the time So the margin here is very thin on the Russell podium and plus 350, but I think the model may be too low on Mercedes It's still a tiny bit above market That's enough for me to dive in it might not work but plus 350 pretty forgiving to offset the risk at least in my eyes, so I Think that the gap between Hamilton and Russell in terms of the podium market specifically is a bit too wide Hamilton plus 270 Russell plus 350 that Hamilton should be higher I think that makes sense But I think the gap is a bit too large based on the way these two guys have performed So if I want to bet one F1 bet for this week before practice in qualifying, I would say Russell the finish on the podium at plus 350 is where I'd want to go a Bit more value for me in NASCAR as they had to gateway for this week Just second time they've been to this track and this week I actually do like the betting board quite a bit a decent number of spots where I show value and sometimes that Could mean that I'm off it could mean that my numbers are not great if they are Deviating pretty heavily from the market But I think for this week. I actually Disagree with a lot of what the market is saying because it's an intermediate track a gateway But it's using the rules package for places like Darlington Charlotte, Kansas, Vegas, Dover, and I think bookmakers may be overweighing Races that have been run in different packages this year So there are a decent number of spots where I see value where I'm higher on the market than drivers or in some instances This is a lot lower on them as well One of those spots is an outright that I want to lock in before practice on Saturday That's on Denny Hamlin attend to one to win a Fandall sports book I have a tier of four drivers in my model who are above the pack those guys are Kyle Larson and William Byron Obviously, they have to be there if they've been phenomenal We're gone to package they've been the class of the field so far this year Other two guys in the tier are Denny Hamlin and Ross Chastain, which is fun because this is where their beef began last Here at gateway Chastain is also a value in the outright market for me, too But we'll circle back on him in a second Hamlin's win odds by my model are above 10% The implied odds here are 9.1% Hamlin was fantastic in both Kansas and Dover both those races Did use the same rules package that is in place this week and he was good in Phoenix too If you want to add that in to get a look at the short or the flat tracks It's a different package, but it does help that it was a flat track So good on a flat track good in this package Hamlin last year in Gateway did not finish well, but it's important to remember the context again Chastain wrecked him Which is what led to this year-long feud. He was good in practice. He qualified six so had speed there and I think the bigger takeaway is there was nothing there to dissuade me from thinking Hamlin can run well this weekend My model has Hamlin as a top-ranked Toyota. Whereas the Betty markets have Truex there They've got Bell there. I think that he is bunched up with them in the betting market, but I have them a bit higher So I want Hamlin to win 10 to 1 a Fandals sportsbook I feel pretty good about this one do like it quite a bit So I want to lock that one in before practicing qualifying in case Hamlin does show a lot of speed there As for Chastain, I do like him outright and I'm going to add him later on the week I think what I want to do with him is make sure he gets track position because in the all-star race and in Charlotte's he didn't have that didn't have traditional qualifying there So he struggled couldn't pick his way through traffic and didn't do so well too well So if I want to do it outright on Chastain, I want that later in the week But he's also plus 350 to podium. That's 22.2 percent implied and I'm above that He's above 25 percent for me. He was fast and gateway last year but Hamlin and also chase LA kept messing with him after he wrecked them in that same race and Despite that despite them trying to ruin his ruin his day Chastain still finished top 10. He's been very good in this package outside of Charlotte last week He was good enough in Phoenix. We'd not worry about the flat aspect of it If you want more flexibility, you can get Chastain top five at plus 170 elsewhere I like that a lot too took that personally and I might prefer that honestly over the podium at plus 350 But among Fandals markets plus 350 to podium is good I would also say that you can bet Chastain had it's up over Kevin Harvick at minus 112 Fords in general have not been great in this package. I know that Ryan Blaney won in this package last week But I do think that Chevy still holds the edge So I would go Chastain minus 112 over Harvick as a head-to-head bet I like the podium at plus 350 top five at plus 170 Maybe I like the head-to-head more than the podium. I don't know maybe yeah Okay, so let's do the head-to-head Chastain minus 112 over Harvick now And maybe we'll add the podium at the outright later on I do think the top five is also more attractive from me than podium at plus 170 so let's go with Chastain over Harvick minus 112 is the preferred bet for this week Chastain and then adding higher upside markets later on depending what happens in practice and qualify finally Fandals is not at top 10 odds up as of yet, but they are up elsewhere and I'm seeing some value right now on Alex Bowman at plus 110 and Brad keselowski at plus 140 you shop around you can get both Those numbers I have both those guys above 50% and you're getting pretty solid plus money on them Bowman came back from his back injury last week and didn't light things up But he survived and that ups my faith in him this week one extra race under his belt extra time to heal up Bowman was very good in this rules package before his injury this year at Fontana and Vegas I have value on him to win at 30 to 1 That might be tougher, but I might be willing to add that if he's fast in practice So I think the preferred market for Bowman is the top 10 at plus 110 Keselowski also slight value to win at 30 to 1 for me right now But again great speed in this package had an awesome car in Charlotte But got caught up in incidents and didn't get to flash that full speed He was also very good in Dalton very good in Dover. He had speed in Phoenix So no matter which races you want to look at that kind of thick gateway I think keselowski should be in a good position. I want to say both. It's just kind of a matter of timing here Maybe Fandle puts up top 10 odds and both these guys wind up being longer that could wind up happening. So What I would do for right now is kind of hope that markets don't shorten elsewhere because I Think I want to wait and see I want to see what Fandle opens that for Bowman and keselowski Let's say Fandle puts up top 10 odds on Friday morning Check out Bowman and keselowski first if they are plus 110 plus 140 here to get that number Awesome once Fandle is open I would find the best odds you can on Bowman and keselowski and Take that number for top 10 as long as this plus money will be a value based on my number So I'd hold off for now see what Fandle opens that like the probably Friday morning based on the way they've done things previously and then Take the best number you can get on both keselowski and Bowman right now It's plus 110 for Bowman plus 140 for keselowski fully okay with both those but I'd wait and see what you can get on Friday If Fandle does wind up opening top 10 markets at that time That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread covering a lot of fun topics back to Some NBA and NHL for tomorrow maybe squeezing some baseball as well So make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever your podcasts also check out the NBA and Stanley Cup finals previews with Tom Vecchio From the Wednesday's show if you've got any questions for me I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J-i-m-s-a-n-n-e-s you can also follow the Fandle podcast network at Fandle podcast I want to thank you all for tuning in for today Good luck to you with your bets across whatever it may be for tonight for game one and joy We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break it all down This has been covering the spread right here on the Fandle podcast network