 We're going to go open a new tab and I'm going to type in something called TheOrd-Oracle.com and this is with our friend TimOrd. Check it out guys. This is a fantastic letter as well. We are with Tim every Tuesday and Thursday. Usually, Tom is with it. Now, Tim has been calling this thing in the gold market for quite a while. I mean, look at that. Remember, you would hear me talk about how nothing was happening in gold and I didn't like it. I didn't see what was going on and Tim and Tom were like, no, no, no, no, no. We've been in this way longer and check this thing out. Anyways, fantastic analysis and we were happy to have Tim ordered TheOrd-Oracle on with us today. Tim, are you there? I'm here. Thanks for having me on. Absolutely. It's good to talk to you. Yeah, I haven't talked to you since all this started happening in gold so I'm interested to see what you got for us today. Yeah, we're looking at the bigger time frames and it tells a pretty good story. There was a bunch of signals, or not a bunch, but we started getting actually, bullies signals actually the last July and they really didn't go up, but they didn't go down, which is kind of interesting. But anyhow, let's look at the bigger picture. We'll talk about the short-term picture a little bit later. But the first chart, this chart, chart number one, goes back to 1994 and the middle window is the XAU Gold Ratio and this is a monthly chart and we're going to look, I think chart number three simplifies this chart, but we'll start off this chart, but I drew trend lines on this XAU Gold chart in a nutshell. When the XAU ratio is going up, that means the XAU, which is a gold index, is outperforming gold and that's what happens in bull markets. Some of the big bull markets of the 1980s, that ratio is going up and in general, this ratio has been going down since about 1994, but there are, say, blips up from, like, roughly about 2000 to 2009 and went up, not a lot, but did go up and went down and since 2014, more or less, we've been going sideways on this ratio. But what I really want to point out, I drew two blue lines on this chart. The top blue line goes all the way back to 1995, approximately, connecting the highs and the bottom line goes back to about 1994, connecting the lows and what I really want to concentrate on is a blue one that's connecting the highs from the 1994 highs. We've been basically banging against that trend line, that down trend line, since about mid-2020. We haven't broke through it yet, but it's not backing away from it. So in my opinion, since mid-2021, we're building energy to pop through that line. Now, this line goes back to 1994, so that's a 20-year, was that 20-year, no, that's a 30-year trend line, right? So the bigger the trend line, the more meaningful to move after. So you've got a 30-year trend line here, we're about ready to break. I think we're going to break, probably fairly soon, we haven't broke it yet, but this would change the character of the market going forward, probably for multi-years. So it's a pretty big deal, where's that ratio going to go, I don't know, but if we break that trend line, normally the longer the trend line, when you do break it, it is a significant happening, I guess you might say. And normally also, when you break a trend line, you need to sign a strength. So what that says, if we do break that trend line, which I think we will because we've got different bicycles that we got on the weekly, the monthly, and actually the daily, on the XAU and other gold indexes, we'll probably see a sign of strength through that trend line. So one thing is, even though gold market has been strong over the last actually just month, we're actually probably going to get stronger because of this ratio. Once that ratio turns up, we'll probably turn up with a sign of strength because that's what needs to happen to break a trend line. So minimum where it's going to go is probably, if you look back from 2012 to the current time frame, I drew a blue trend horizontal line across there, connecting the highs. I think minimum would go back to that trend line and right now that ratio is .057 to get back to that blue trend line, horizontal trend line, looks like about .09, give or take. So if gold stocks, what that says is gold stocks without, if that ratio goes back to, I say .09, that's about a 40, or no, that's about a, oh, let's see, do my math here in my head. It's probably about a 70, 80% move in that ratio. That means on average, gold stocks will move about 70, 80%. So that's just moving that ratio and some of the gold stocks will outperform that, but in general, if a gold ratio is said to be at a nickel with a lot of mar, it'll move back to about 9 cents just because of this ratio. So anyhow, it's something really important. Have we broke that ratio yet or that trend line yet? Not yet. So let's flip to chart two. Yeah. Okay. Now this is the kind of narrows it down. This dotted red trend line coming down from the top of the chart is where that trend line is on a short-term basis. So anyhow, so you can see a short-term view. Anyhow, the middle window is a weekly XAU gold ratio, and the window above that is the RSI for that ratio. And the blue lines on this chart show the times when the RSI of this ratio got below 30 and turned up, which is a buy signal. So we've got a buy signal here probably looks like about February of this year. Maybe in the February, first of March, it's a fairly new buy signal. Most of them last around six months or longer. But we're getting close to that down trend line. Looks like to break that trend line, we need a close above about .06. That horizontal trend line I had drawn on the chart before is around .09. So at a minimum, we should move back to .07. That's what has happened in the past. But if we do it this time around, we'll break that trend line going back to 1994. So I doubt we'll stop at .07. We'll go some way higher number, how high it is, I don't know. But all this stuff is happening right now. You get this type of setup on this bigger time frame, it doesn't happen very often. It happens once every couple of decades. And we're ending into this period right now where this may happen. Last time something this big was going on was probably back in 2020 or 2000 even. I hear the music. Tim, this is awesome. Stay with us because we'll get back to this. Folks say tune will be right back. Welcome back, folks. This is Jacob Schrupp, filling in for Tom O'Brien. We are currently with Tim Ord of the Ord Oracle. Tim, are you there with us still? Yep. Yep. Okay. Fantastic. I started on two. Yep. The bottom window is the XAU. And I have a line drawn on the connecting the highs on the XAU right against that trend line right now. And again, we're on a bicycle because of the RSI of the weekly XAU Gold Ratio Gable Bicycle here. I think February or March recently. Previous bicycles at this type of signal lasted a minimum of six months. So we're still early in that signal. So most likely we're going to bust through that blue trend line I have drawn on the XAU, which also suggests, again, when you break a trend line, you should see a sign of strength that confirms the break. So XAU, in my opinion, will get stronger here in the coming weeks as it breaks that trend line. Also, we're going to have another, you know, the XAU Gold Ratio right above it breaking that trend line. You should see a sign of strength. That's reason why these gold stocks, I think, are really going to turn the corner probably pretty strongly here in the coming weeks. Let's go to chart three. Yes. Give me one second. I'm trying to get it loaded up. All right. All right. We are good to go. All right. Good to go. Okay. This is just a line chart. The other charts were kind of messy, but the middle window is a monthly XAU chart. You can see the top trend line I've drawn down back from the 2000 or 1996 highs down to where it is. You can see a little bit better. That ratio, I got circled in red there, just right at that trend line. We're on a bi-signal because of the six-month bi-signal on the RSI XAU Gold Ratio. Either this XAU ratio makes above the red line or goes below the blue line. Well, it's not going to go blue line because we're on a bi-signal, so that means the ratio is going to go up. Anyhow, we're going to bust that ratio. The bottom window is a monthly gold, which already had a breakout. We broke above the neckline of the head and shoulders bottom. As of right now, the gold stocks per se have not broke out yet, but that's probably coming here pretty quick. I wanted to show you on the bigger time frame is where we are. If you go right below on that red trend line coming back down from the 1996 highs, you should rally back at least ... I have blue lines drawn on the XAU gold chart there. We'll probably get back to at least the top trend line at minimum, which is around one. Again, we're 0.057, so you're looking for a 90% move in the gold stocks. Probably, I don't know what will happen this year. I don't know. I really don't have the time frame, but soon. Let's flip the chart forward. Yeah. Or else you have a question about ... No, no, no, I'm just ... This is awesome stuff. All right. Chart four, now this is a little ... You've got the same thing. You've got the monthly ... The middle window is a monthly XAU gold chart going back to 1984, it looks like. In the bottom window, it's just a little bit different method, but it just reconfirms what's going on. But the bottom method going back to 1984 is the flow stochastics. The flow stochastics is picked out every bull market bottom going back to 1984. There was one failure back in 2012. You can see a little line there. I have failed on that slow stochastic chart, but anyhow, back in mid-2022, which August of 2022, I thought that was an important low. I thought that low was not going to be broken. One of the reasons why, because of this momentum chart, and I've got some other indicators that said that August 2000 or actually July 2022, I got another one in August 2022, and September 2022, different type of signals that all came in at that low of late 2022. So I'm thinking that's a low. Market popped up a little bit, and stochastics kind of just went sideways to down a little bit. But if you notice, once you hit below minus 20, in all cases, you went back above plus 80. So what this chart says to me, we're early in the stages of this bull market. So I think the bull market really started in 2022, and some of the most gold stocks haven't done well yet. The reason why you need this ratio, which is the monthly XAU ratio to start going up. That means all gold stocks are starting to participate, not just probably the generals are coming off the bottom first, then everything will be starting to come off the bottom here later. But when this ratio gets back up to plus 80, it looks like a plus 90 are times when you get consolidations, big consolidations. So we're a long ways from that. How long would that take to get up there? At a minimum, the rally's starting right now, at a minimum it would take a year to get back to that ratio. That doesn't mean that's the end of the bull market. It does mean that you probably got a multi-month consolidation phases. So I'm thinking we're looking like, if you look at 2000 low, at the bottom window on the slow stochastics, it kind of turned up pretty quickly. But every time we got to 80 there, around 80, you got a multi-month consolidation, and you kept going higher. So I'm thinking we may look something like that. When you get to 80, you can consolidate for several months and start going up again. The reason why, because we're breaking that trend line back to 1996 high, you're breaking that. That means a multi-year change of character in the market is happening. So instead of a downtrending market and the XAU Gold ratio, you may have another 10 years of uptrending or something similar to that. You know, be a multi-year, I don't know how many years, we'll have to wait and see down the road. But this momentum chart, this has turned up, the kind of kind of sideways here, we're probably in the midst of turning up right now. So let's flip to chart five. I don't know if we'll be able to get through all these charts. Yeah, let's see here. I'm going to pull up chart five right now. We are out. Perfect. All right. Monthly, middle windows XAU, monthly chart, top window is the monthly cumulative up-down volume. The bottom window is monthly cumulative advanced decline. Well, they don't catch the bottom and they don't catch the top, but this type of chart gets the 80% in between. So it hasn't closed above. When you get the signal, you need both those charts, the top chart and the bottom chart, to close above the mid-Bullinger band. And it gave a cell signal back in 2021, and it's still been on a cell signal because we hadn't closed above the mid-Bullinger band. So this is a momentum chart of the advanced decline and up-down volume. So this is the meat of the rally. Once these two indicators get above the mid-Bullinger band, they don't whip around above it and below it. They either stay above it, multi-months, or they stay below it, multi-months. And in this case, we gave a cell signal in 2021. We haven't turned up yet and need to close above the mid-Bullinger band. It doesn't predict the box probably in August of 2022, but we've kind of been in a consolidation phase, but the strongest part of the rally comes when both those indicators close above the mid-Bullinger band. That hasn't happened yet, but we're off a close. If we bust through the middle window with the XAU Gold chart again, we bust through that red trend line there. With a sign of strength, both those charts will probably jump above the mid-Bullinger band. Fantastic. Tim, thank you so much for joining us. I know we didn't get through all the charts, but come back Thursday. I think Tom will be here. I'm really looking forward to hearing more about this. All right. Tim, thank you so much, folks. Stay right there.