 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody? Welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the mandu a podcast network in number fire comm where today We are previewing the open championship at Royal st. Georgia's golf club with Brandon Ghadoula getting his thoughts on this year's field on the course and who he is betting for this week My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire comm joined here as always by Dr Ed Fang you can find his work over at the power Inc.com Ed Euro 2020 in the final lived up to the hype with Italy winning and penalties Obviously you feel bad for the way that it went down But like from a a non like like I just feel bad for people a lot of time if I ignore that part of me It was really thrilling the way that that that match unfolded Well, I'm glad you thought it was really thrilling. I mean, I actually thought the match was pretty boring What's that you said going in it would be that way. Yeah, it was it was gonna be Somewhat boring, so I'm glad you found it exciting. Obviously the penalty shoot out makes a hero and a goat really quick. So Yeah, and we really saw the Italian keeper just Just yeah all of a sudden appear I think you know They hadn't allowed a lot of goals the defense had been relatively good throughout the tournament And then you forget that the Italians have this 22 year old keeper that has been the regular at Milan since he was 16 Yeah, like and my starting since he's 16 years old That's incredible And that was a lot of the discussion around England and the penalties was the youth and the people who they chose to kick the penalties But then you've got a 22 year old trying to stop them the whole time and just the the youth across the board on that stage I think regarding the excitement of the match I think that stakes mattered a lot there like if it were a friendly and it were that way I don't know if I would have to just be exciting But when you have those stakes and knowing how badly both these countries wanted to win that does change things pretty dramatically from a viewing perspective Yeah, for sure. Yeah, I mean the stakes are are certainly high And we did get the early goal which certainly added to the excitement although maybe not pre-england fans because they really went into the shell and I think Bill Connolly tweeted They had three shots from minute two until minute 90 or something along those lines And I think pretty sure a couple of those happened in the first 15 minutes. So, right Yeah, it was yeah, it was interesting in that how the match of all was pretty interesting and we'll talk about that in covering the past Exactly, we'll do that in a bit here as mentioned Brandon Gadoula is coming up for today to preview the open championship You can find Brandon on Twitter at Gadoula 13, of course He is the managing editor at numberfire.com my co-host on the heat check fantasy podcast on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed So we talked DFS yesterday. You can find that already posted We're gonna talk to Brandon about the open championship his favorite outrides favorite nine outrides and more to get you Set for Thursday, but first make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast as we get into July We're starting to close to NFL and college football season. That is just around the corner always an exciting time We can start to talk some player props in the not so distant future So fun time to be talking betting here Make sure you hit the subscribe button on Apple podcast Spotify stitcher Google podcast or wherever you get your podcast We'll be here weekly until NFL season and then bi-weekly once we get into Football season with college football and the NFL back once again before we get to Brandon that we got to go back to last week We had Edward e-gross on to talk about the Euro 2020 final go back through that and talk about your good prediction Ed about how that game would unfold covering the past So last week here We had Edward e-gross on to talk about the Euro 2020 final and the NBA finals as well You can find Edward on Twitter at Ed with sports and check out the odds and Ed's podcast as well on the Fandall podcast network Ed was on England's Moneyline in regulation at plus 155 obviously went to penalties So it was the draw there that came through but Ed your bet regulation did come through You had under two and a half goals, which was minus 205 and that did happen because it was at two goals after the full plus stoppage time so a hit for you on that one and it sounds like Based on the way you've been talking about it kind of played out the way as expected where yeah, there wasn't a high pace in this game There was not a high pace It was a very defensive game and I actually want to talk a little bit about how modern analytics looks at this game it looks at the game in terms of expected goals or XG and XG is simply a way of Quantifying how good a shot is so you're gonna get a very little XG for a shot from 35 yards away You're gonna get a lot of XG for the Italian goal where the player was literally two yards away from the goal So when you look at this, you know, you know Italy had 2.1 XG and England had 0.4 XG and I think that's a little bit of an exaggeration Honestly XG isn't a perfect stat And you know, they assigned a lot of XG for the Italian goal Which we talked about, you know, but you just got the ball two yards away from the goal and was able to tap It in but there was kind of a couple of fortunate bounces. There was a header that kind of went off the post And just kind of landed at his feet. So probably a little bit of an exaggeration there I don't think Italy had a lot of quality chances outside of that And then on the England side, you know There was that goal in the first minute where there was a cross over to the left back who hit it perfectly Right and put right in the post and it goes up 1-0 that was also interesting to me too Because Shaw had never scored a bowl for England before he's a defensive player And that's a really tough ball to pick out of the air and just Just hit without without getting a touch first. So I think that opportunity was a little bit You know 0.3 XG and that one seems like a lot So it was a really defensive game without a lot of opportunities and and I can see many worlds in which it's 00 heading into penalty kicks. So Yeah, just a little just some thoughts about how you know, we look at the game in terms of XG and and Yeah, I feel pretty good about the way it did turn out from from my analysis And it sounds like you thought that England was were they being tentative after the goal or what do you think was the Kind of the cause I guess from the lack of quality shots after they got that goal on the bank So England has played very defensive they have they've not had a scheme where they get their ball to their attacking players and That has been true throughout the tournament and then what they did for this game is they took away one of their attacking players and put in Another defensive player. So they actually played kind of five guys at the back And then two very defensive oriented midfielders. And so seven of your 10 guys are focused on defending Whereas, you know, like, uh, I guess it would have been six of your guys were very focused on defending before And that didn't really too much. So so it was really kind of the the scheme a little bit and Yeah, there just wasn't a lot of opportunities And do you feel like that was a mistake or do you think that given the opponent in Italy? That's the way they should have played it with it with a one no lead Uh, I I mean, I think it's a mistake, but I'm also wearing a german Jersey too of a very attacking team. So I think it's a matter of preference, right? Yeah, um, I think a lot of american football fans that hate LSU over alabama nine six are gonna want more attacking type soccer And if you're an england fan, it's just frustrating because you do have a lot of attacking talent that either Didn't get the ball much or was sitting on the bench Yeah, and uh, we actually had one of those attackers talked about in other bets ed talked about last week He looked in some fun markets, which is kind of ed's thing One of them was for idly having the first booking, which is minus 114 He got that one. Uh, it was just after halftime. Nicola berela got a yellow card First one of the match and so a win for edward there He had harry kane as an anytime goal scorer plus 185 as he mentioned Didn't see a lot of kane in that match. Uh, luchat was a lone goal for england there Was kane one of the guys specifically you were referring to there as being like maybe we should have featured this guy a bit more Oh, of course. I mean, he's one of the best goal scorers in the world and probably the best in england's ever had right and Nothing there. So i'm sure edward a little salty about the way that one broke down He was on england plus 146 for a clean sheet and that actually was Looking pretty good for a while and honestly like we're talking about the approach That's not bad for for edward trying to get that clean sheet. You know, they get the one-nil lead They can go into that defensive type mindset you alluded to and they did have a clean sheet until the sixth seventh minutes So, uh, that was close but not quite there either way a good week for you ed and then uh, we got the Women on the first booking from edward, of course, is very fittingly the edward nailed that one for sure my bed Go ahead and also we're going to give props to john sharon and fandall sportsbook Uh, they were very much on italy's side to to lift the cup at one point They had england minus 110 italy plus 102 To lift the cup which was significantly different from uh, where a lot of other sharp books were uh, that's not where it closed I mean, it definitely moved towards england but Fandall was always kind of Leaning towards italy to lift the cup Throughout throughout the days leading up to that match, uh, john, I believe is scottish, so I think Played John would never let his uh, no, of course not. It's on fandall sportsbook After the match he did tweet. It's coming home winky face. Uh I think john had an okay day on sunday I'm pretty firm in saying that but hey, like you said and they do he did talk about how they have Situations where they believe what their numbers say and it's possible. They just said italy So uh, and it sounds like they trusted that for sure, but that really depends on for them, right? Sure, absolutely And I thought and I I believe john had told me some point that like his group doesn't do soccer like they have partners in Okay, you that okay. Well either way I'm sure he was happy with the way things broke on sunday My bet last week was nascar looking at william byron at plus 1400 to win in atlanta And the long shot I mentioned in passing did better than byron, which is not a good thing Tyler retic was 85 to 1 to win mentioned him in passing as there was value there He had a fifth place average running position. He was awesome that entire race finished 6. It didn't win But like he ran well and byron did not he was decent early on I got stage points in the first stage his third stage was hideous He went a lap down. Uh, so he was not even close and it seems like there was there were There was buzz that nascar had talked to hendrick motorsports about the nose on their cars before the pocano races Since then we did see augs bowman win one of the races They might have won if not for fuel mileage in the second race But uh, but kyle bush won that one and then atlanta last week hendrick didn't seem as dominant so I'm at least going to log that in the back of my mind that the hendrick motorsports cars may not be quite as potent as they had been previously Of course, we didn't see chase Elliott went to uh in Uh, I wrote america But it's at least in my brain that there is a potential for hendrick to take a slight step backwards as a result of this nose change for them And i'm keeping an eye on that in the next time there are one half mile track But either way byron did not work out So apologies on that one. We'll run it back in the very near future with some nascar, but they've got a Two-week uh off schedule here with the olympics, so We'll get back on some nascar after the break. I'm talking golf for today speaking to golf We'll talk about that here in just a segment brandon cadulla. You can find him on twitter at cadulla 13 He is of course the managing editor at numberfire.com the co-host of the heat check fantasy podcast myself talking dfs We're going to preview the open championship bigot brandon's thoughts on both his favorite outrides and non-outrides But first the 2021 nba finals are here and fandal and taco bell are teaming up to add an extra layer of excitement To the action introducing the fandal sportsbook and taco bell nba finals comeback bonus The terms are simple All you have to do is head to fandal sportsbook before tip off and place a 25 plus dollar Pre-alive moneyline bet on either team to win if the team you bet on overcomes a halftime deficit to win You will be eligible to receive a ten dollar bonus and fandal site credit You'll win your first bet and earn a bonus as well now That's more ways to win. Thanks to our friends at taco bell Users must opt in the promo code in order to be eligible for the bonus payouts Eligible every nba final scheme until the bonus hits must be 21 plus and present colorado Iowa illinois indiana michigan new jersey pennsylvania tennessee virginia or west virginia Bonus issued as a non withdrawable site credit that expires in seven days max bonus 10 dollars restrictions apply See full terms at sportsbook.fandall.com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler in colorado 105 to 240 700 in iowa 100 bets off in indiana 1809 with it for confidential help in michigan 1802 707 117 in tennessee call the red line 1 889 9789 or in west virginia visit 1 800 gambler dot net Covering the present Let's bring brandon cadoula back into covering the spread to talk about the open championship teeing off on thursday over at royal st Georgia's golf club brandon. It is the final major of this super major season. How are you doing today? Good i'm always a little little sad whenever it's the final major just because it feels like uh, so long so long Uh till the next one we got a little bit spoiled and i guess in a way We didn't really get spoiled last year, but coming with the the november masters So we got five of them in a jam packed window, but you know, I mean this is going to be A really tough event uh scoring wise and that's always some of my favorite golf So i'm pretty excited for this one. So you're lamenting. This is the last major Does that mean that you don't get up for the the fedex cup playoffs that doesn't quite draw you in as much shocker? Uh, not quite especially because it's just still impossible to figure out Who's in contention and they're always showing like projected standings And I don't know where guys actually are and you know, these guys skip tournaments, but they're still relevant. I don't know I want there to be some Like added emphasis on the fedex cup and I know the pga tour does but just doesn't really transfer over 10 mil seems like they're trying pretty hard to get people to try and care about that now. I gotta ask you Uh stylistically for you for the open are you someone who will wake up? It to watch like the opening teas or are you wake up check results and watch what you can after you're awake? Um, I mean I kind of split that it's not like I sleep in I do try to wake up early Although, uh, surprisingly we're gonna have some some company spend the night So they're gonna have to deal with me getting up and Super early you have people you have friends coming over. This is this is very anti-brandon. I'm I'm shocked by this So, yes, my wife's uh, she choreographed a musical And her friends coming from out of town to see it and they're spending the night Okay, so clearly brandon is the inferior half of uh, of the partnership in we could do a household for sure. Oh, yeah We knew that we knew that one. Yeah, just confirmation of what we knew to be true previously So let's talk to brandon since we got in here We'll settle for brandon talk to him about the open championship for this week at royal saint george's golf club And it's a spot that they have not been to since 2011 because of course the open does rotate But we do have data from 2011 at least not shot length data. We do have some data What can we learn from the event with regards to what types of golfers should perform best this week? Yeah, I mean so anytime you're breaking down an event One of the first things I try to do is figure out the driving stats and which ones matter Is it distance? Is it accuracy? Is it is it both or is it is it kind of neither sometimes? Where there's like not really a big emphasis either way but For driving this week based on what we saw in 2011 Just kind of looking to drive it well enough to remain in contention or basically not Have your driver put you out of contention is a big key this week by far driving distance correlated stronger with stroke differential Then fairways hit back in 2011 Good drive rate actually doubled distance alone in terms of that correlation with stroke differential and a good drive You know, it's probably a little bit misleading. There's probably actually more overlap with stroke skiing off the tee than either just Distance or accuracy, but a good drive is either a fairway hit or if you miss a green regulation Or you miss a fairway you then you hit the green regulation. So It does factor in some some iron play there, but um, you know as far as like the other Stats off the tee box when we look back at 2011 we saw that scrambling Correlated strongest with stroke differential followed closely by greens in regulation. Again, as you mentioned no shot link data. So No strokes gained data. I would just caution against scrambling itself because that's just getting up and down Still considers park conversions, uh with with the putter. So, you know, as always though, uh, You can look at anything you want with a major, but you need golfers. You just do everything well. So for me, I'm looking at, uh Stroke skiing approach number one, uh, which is always the case but stroke skiing off the tee stroke skiing approach and stroke skiing putting All waited a bit differently, but you know, you got to have all four facets This week and specifically at royal st. George's. I think it's going to be a little bit extra interesting because The average winning score across open championships since 1980s nine under par, but At the ones we've had at royal st. George's it's uh 4.2 under on average which makes it the second toughest venue in that span so Even going to play tougher this week. So you got to have your golfers just be able to do everything We saw that in 2011. We're going to see it again in 2021 So brandon, uh, I'm a little embarrassed to show my ignorance But you guys were talking about scrambling yesterday on the dfs podcast too. Uh, what is that? What does that mean? So scrambling is basically, uh, when you The easiest way to think about it is when you miss a greener regulation, uh, but you chip and putt and save par So basically, uh Saving par whenever you aren't on pace to make par and a green regulation is getting to a green With a two pot being par. So hitting a greener regulation on a par three Would just be, you know, putting your t-shirt on the green and then you can two pot for par So if you miss, uh, the green and then you Chip and save par. So that's the kind of stuff that we're gonna that we're gonna need this week, but Speaking to that Yeah, that's that's important. But if you look at just overall scrambling stats from the pga tour, you're going to see It's going to be a bit trickier, uh, then looking at stroking around the green, which will show you how close you get to the pin Uh, and scrambling also, you know, you could be a great wedge player and just miss your putts Which obviously you need to make your putts, but scrambling is just the percentage of times that you save par Stroking around the green and stroking putting is going to be a little bit more indicative of the stats That we're actually looking for so But we don't have those stats from 2011. Uh for Yeah, we don't have shot link for that that open so Kind of imputing what we need would be stroking around the green and stroking putting combined to make up that scrambling Scramming also can just be it's not necessarily just wedge playing around the green too. So scrambling A little bit outdated at this point and are you gonna be a dfs grinder that with with us this week? No, i'm just playing But i wanted i wanted some insight so i listened to a good chunk of your your podcast i should Maybe we can talk you into a lineup or two, you know, we'll see we'll work on it That's our goal for the rest of this podcast is convince ed to play some dfs for this week now brandon we did you talk about course history and Generally when we talk about we talk about how it can be overvalued in betting markets and other stuff and discussion around these things With this event we can't look at it because obviously they have not been to royal st in georgia since 2011 so Are you using anything here as a proxy? Are you looking at what they've done in previous open championships past majors? Links courses. What are you looking at here if anything as a proxy for course history? Yeah, so it's always tricky with the open I do use these as like tiebreaker specifically in this instance open history and major history Just because that speaks to the strength of the field and those expectations the pressure of playing in majors But I don't like to look too much at links courses or even european tours that's because not every course they play is Is linksy and to get a solid sample for links courses. You need to dig back pretty far and that's not necessarily the the best route Now I will say we have kind of a similar situation With the pga championship from this year because we had the pga championship at keawa island this this year but also in 2012 when we have The open at the same course as it was in 2011. So, you know an extra year there, but you know rory won the pga back in 2012 by eight and he finished 49th this year and Of the 40 golfers you played both of those pga's Only jesson rose finished top 15 both years three others top 25 in each year But you don't want to be looking at like 2011 specifically But then that also kind of brings in complications of they're not playing the same courses For the open so I kind of just cut, you know to a very small degree Weight in past performances. It opens past performances at majors. I want to see good open form, but It's not a must similar to kind of like to what we see with augusta Um, and I have plenty of interest in cullinmore cower victor holland and scottie schaeffler despite their combined zero open championship starts between them So brandon uh, john rom is is the favorite. Uh, he used to be our well-kept data-driven secret, but One major so you want a major, right? Yeah, yeah us open So now he's becoming the favorite places. Uh, so Is there any value still on rom or what are we thinking in terms of betting him the win or top five or whatnot? Yeah, so with rom, uh, he's plus 750 To win on vandal sportsbook, which is pretty wild for a field this full And a major I do not see Like I see no value My model sees no value in betting rom, but I do understand the interest Even at such short odds because rom, you know won the us open But it's not just that really he was eighth at the pga Withdrew from memorial when he led by six and had to withdraw due to that positive coven 19 test And then went on to win the us open, uh, and then Last week at the scottish open he finished seventh whenever he led the field and strokes gained t-degree Averaging a 0.65 more strokes t-degree per round than the next best mark in the field He just happened to lose 0.45 strokes putting and he is a phenomenal putter. So It's not that big of a stretch to say that john rom could have been entering this with three straight wins So I understand the appeal. I understand why the odds are so low, but My model gives john rom an eight percent chance to win He would need to be up close to almost 12% Based on those odds. So i'm out on rom, but assuming the model is Close to correct that is actually going to lead So that that big discrepancy is going to lead to some value elsewhere down the board What's I was going to ask because like for me with nascar when kyle arson is 30 implied versus 21 in my sins It's hard for me to like I have a tough time with that. So i'm like, okay Are my sins undervaluing him right and so I can't tell is the value elsewhere good for you with rom Do you feel confident in Your model properly Valuing him or are you nervous that you may be undervaluing him which may look the may make the value elsewhere Seem a bit uh fool's goalie Yeah, I mean, it's super it's super difficult to know Hot streaks in golf are real You can see clear trends, but they don't last forever Uh, this is something I mentioned on the podcast yesterday when we were talking about the dfs angle here But with rom data golf has a they're adjusted show skeins and over the past 20 rounds He's like almost a full stroke per round better than the next best golfer in the field Which is like if I use that as his baseline, he would be you know, I would assume well over Expectation but 20 rounds is not a large enough sample To trust So I use the past year and wait it for a fuel strength obviously, but for recency as well So I mean the super recent form and honestly for rom and and again I don't like to look just at finishes, but if you just look at his finishes It's like all top tens lately. Uh, he's just that good He's that and he does everything well So there is a chance that I'm undervaluing him because I'm not giving him so much credit for the hot streak But that is factored into a degree and it's still not really showing enough value to go to rom at plus 750 So let's say you're not betting rom which you said you're not you said there may be value elsewhere Do you see any value towards the top of the odds board for this week? So this won't surprise anyone who knows anything about me But zander schoffley at plus 1800 does outperform his win odds in my model He's at 5.5 likely to win Making him the second most likely golfer to win behind rom at 8 percent Which is kind of what I see all the time whenever they're both in the field because they're both just so good Statistically and so consistent and you know, we don't think of zander anymore as someone who just goes out and wins because he hasn't won in quite some time but according to my database which Adjusts for field strength and recency again Zander is the only golfer in this field to be in the 85th percentile or better and all four of those adjusted stroke skin categories over the past year It's really like zander is just such an outlier. He does everything well We won an all-around golfer this week. So zander and especially a major six top five since 17 starts 15 made cuts Both of those misses coming at the pga It's about as high-floor as we can get and honestly The fact that he hasn't won is not really going to affect me, but So i'm in on zander. I like patrick cantley as well He's like almost zander light with the balanced and really high Ranks across those stroke skin categories. He's plus 3300. He's finished 12th and 41st and his two open championships starts and I was going to leave it at those two But dust and johnson is now plus 2,500 which is super appealing That's exactly where my model has him Again, I use it a year of data to simulate things so that explains things to a degree But that does weight in recent rounds more and even with that like I mean dj's actually back up to the world number one. So uh, just kind of a fluky thing there but You know, we're getting the world number one with the upside of being just showing up and looking like Possibly the best golfer of all time at his peak at you know 25 to 1 which is really appealing So those are kind of three names that i'm i'm honing in on at the very top But also I can throw in patrick reid victor hovland calling more cowa between 30 and 35 all drawing my attention You had to pick one between zander cantley and dj at where he's at Would it be zander is the one with the biggest edge for you or do you want dj or cantley there? um, so the biggest edge would belong uh to Actually, I yeah zander right now because I haven't looked Since dj's odds dropped but zander by by a tinge Okay, so zander at 18 to 1 uh number one for brandon for this week and obviously That's the top of the odds for but it can get a little bit weird in the open And we've seen some you know some shane larry type performances here before Is there anybody you've got your eye on there as being a potential surprise performer whether it be A long shot outright those are tough to bet at least for me But like someone who may be undervalued in the overall betting markets in general Uh, well if I can count tony finau it that counts plus 5 000 as a long shot than tony finau Could be just a classic Overreaction he's missed two straight cuts and there's did come from poor ball striking performances But finau ranks in the 92nd percentile and adjusted stroke scanty degree in my database over the past year We know he's like a big time performer In majors and did miss that cut at the us open but as 12 top 20 finishes in his past 21 majors It showed up well at the british open 18th 27th 9th and 3rd Again, if you trust a long-term sample for finau He's better than that, you know 50 to 1 number implies But if that's not long enough for you, I think lucas herbert would be appealing His odds are actually up to 75 or it's down to 75 to 1. He was like in the 150 to 200 range But he's coming in with a win and a t4 on the european tour But was also top 20 and 2 pga tour stars right before that so Uh, I mean if you look at him statistically really good short game, but the irons and driver are there Well enough, uh, and then I don't know if you want me to throw in like the other top 10s. I'm considering here. Um Sure, that would be uh, harris english These are top 10s top 20s the longer guys are more top 20s because i'm trying to be smarter and not chase all that Right to this gym gym alluded to but harris english is undervalued. Uh, Cameron tringale as i'm sure gym would would love to hear tater gooch cory connors brian harman and charlie hoffman all look undervalued for me So those are the kinds of guys who i'm hoping to hit on maybe a top 10 or top 20 to to balance out the bank role this week So brand there's there's a lot of big in these, uh Markets for the winner and even top 20 and stuff like that Are there other markets that you might suggest maybe some head-to-heads that that you're looking at? Uh, heading into this golf tournament. Yeah, so I went through some head-to-heads I kind of struggled with the head-to-head specifically But I did pin point 2 I like victor hovland minus 102 over louis west asin Louis in really good form coming off of multiple runner-up finishes But hovland just an elite t-degree and golfer The the the wedges are working their way back up So I like hovland at that number and also teo hatton minus 112 over the defending champ sheen laury Sheen laury, uh, I think is a little bit over inflated because of the win But teo hatton Was almost, you know, there there have been times where it just felt like teo hatton's unfaithable But I like him long term Over laury and then I did find, uh, three group bets that looked pretty good to me Group e uh, patrick reed at plus 220 over the group of scottie schaeffler Lee westwood and tommy fleetwood, uh, reed came out at plus 160 for me in that matchup Schaeffler is also a value there, but that really stems from, uh, westwood and fleetwood Just being overvalued and both being in that group a group g tony fienas I'm already talked about plus 250 over robert mackentire who's getting a lot of buzz mark leishman and sergio garcia, but mackentire leishman and garcia are all kind of overhyped Just because of various things, but you know in fiena was getting like that discredit So like fiena plus 250 in group g And then the final one group f abraham answer at plus 220 over some Again overrated overvalued veterans at this point just the rose ricky fowler and adam scott So answer Should really contend. Uh, he's a really good golfer just doesn't necessarily have the driver to contend most places But he can get to the greens. He can he can get up and down. He can scramble. He can pot So I gave him answer quite a bit. Uh, plus 220 for group f Well, i'm glad to hear this fiena propaganda and I can guarantee you it will not end because i'll be talking about him In just a bit as well. That is brandon gedula. You can find him on twitter at gedula 13 Also, check out his win simulations, which are posted over at number fire dot com We also have our dfs podcast the number fire daily fantasy podcast So you're talking about the open championship everything else over at number fire brandon We appreciate the time. Good luck with your bets. Good luck with your dfs lineups That's that of the one against me and we'll talk to you again. Hopefully in the very near future You know, it's great. It's always great talking, uh, you know in detail about, uh, the model and it always just always great to talk about golf with you guys Absolutely. Thank you, brandon Covering the future Big thank you once again to brandon gedula for swinging by and breaking down the open championship and ed as he mentioned John rom went from being the guy that all the betting world was talking about to being Kind of a buzzkill now with his odds being so short It was same thing again with kyle arson this year where I was like, oh man, I can keep betting kyle arson all of a sudden No, no, no, I can't anymore They've they've taken this away and it's just it's sad to lose our our kind of golden our golden boy, uh for betting here Yeah, I was watching the pga with some friends and I was talking about john rom and they're like what really He's one of the world's best golfers. Yeah, and And There was value then and and then I think a good very very good golfer got hot and that takes away all the value so a little bit sad to see but you know Brandon still talked about xander schoffley and so Hopefully there's some value and we can hit on that Before he gets hot and uh, there's no more value with him What's he's gonna say is you're not you're not someone who deserves to be a prohibitive favorite until you until You are and so that's why I am okay continuing to go back to people like xander schoffley despite the fact that he hasn't gotten the job done yet because like Once he proves that the value is going to be totally gone So I'm okay continuing to turn towards guys like him and like fina as well who I'll talk about a bit Despite the fact they have not gotten the job done because the elements for getting it done are there And those elements are what matter and those elements are what allow us to predict when they will Do it and then suddenly become you know no more no more value to us, but I think that uh The elements of rom are there with xander as well So we'll see if you can pull things off this week over at royal st. George's Let's move now into covering the future and ed you want to talk some nba finals We saw the bucks get things to two to one in game number three Phoenix still minus 270 to win this series of fandal sportsbook. What are you seeing with the series and with game number four? Yeah, I Haven't really been following closely. So Um, this is kind of going to be more trying to catch up with what's going on But I but I think I do have some insights. So if you kind of look at the spreads Starting game one. Phoenix was a five point favorite. Remember that was probably that was yonest's first game back so there's probably some question marks as to How he would play uh, phoenix wins that game. They moved to a four and a half point favorite in game two Milwaukee was a four and a half point favorite in game three at home So a pretty big spread and then currently they're sitting at minus four at fandal sportsbook for game four on wednesday night With the finals they're allowing almost full capacity in the stadiums So I had talked previously about with reduced capacity that home court advantage of the playoff should be about three points clearly with the spread uh Of how it's flopping back and forth between phoenix and Milwaukee It looks like that home court advantage is more like four and a half points, which makes sense for full stadiums and um Yeah, I think that does make sense a four and a half was what I was using before a couple years ago when I used to do these types of calculations and You know, we're at a point in the united states where we are getting the full capacity So we're really talking about a pretty even match up between uh phoenix and Milwaukee and You probably, you know, when you look at these spreads I would I would probably say phoenix on a neutral court would be about a half a point better than Milwaukee and if that's true that leads to about a 72 percent probability to win the series um, so It's really close. Um, if I can understand with how close the series is you might think that's Too much in favor of the sun. So if you think Milwaukee is the better team, maybe they're a half point better The that leads to about 33 34 series win probability for Milwaukee And so you can kind of look at these markets, right? And say like well if I like phoenix and I really do think they're the better team Then maybe I want to go bet phoenix plus four and a half over at draft kittens Which I think would have some value at this point because the home court is probably not five If you're leaning on the side that Milwaukee is the better team even if by a half point maybe a point um Most of these books have the series price of Milwaukee plus 200 So about a 33 implied probability if you like Milwaukee Better than a half point over phoenix for the rest of the series. That looks like a pretty good bet so It's a way to look at related markets uh with the new home court that we're using now because these stadiums are more full and um You can just look at it, you know Ed Miller in his book talks about no-hold markets And and so you can look at these related markets and find a no-hold price and I'm certainly not here to tell you which one of those is true whether phoenix or Milwaukee is the better team. I honestly have no idea, but I do have a way of translating uh spreads into series prices and um, that's what my analysis shows And that was a lot of what I talked about when we had him on the show He was talking about how you want to find situations in which You could hypothetically bet both sides and be like smart about it And you want to find situations where the required knowledge is Decrease like we all think we're very knowledgeable But you want to find situations where that knowledge is requisite knowledge is not as high And here you're making one decision and it's informing Which way you want to go in In betting this this series slash game four Yeah, exactly So yeah, you know, I mean if you think Milwaukee is the better team by a point There are series price the win probability should be about 36 percent Right and and so that would be value and you know, I mean one point and a half is not That much different. No, definitely not. Okay. So I like that We're looking for ways to make things easier on ourselves We're talking about betting top 10 and top 20 markets and golf You know, a lot of those are pretty juiced up So if we can find ways to reduce that Give ourselves advantages over the sports books We should do so so Ed is talking about checking out Phoenix versus Milwaukee and what you see in that series how you view them relative on a Court and going from there based on that So Phoenix plus four and a half for game four or Milwaukee plus 200 depending on how you see things playing out there For my cover in the future I want to talk about Tony Fiena has alluded to previously The market for him to me is plus 210 to finish inside the top 20 Finau is entering here as Brandon mentioned with back-to-back missed cuts and Those missed cuts came in part due to poor ball striking, which is concerning But the larger sample on Finau says he is a tremendous ball striker both off the tee and approach And I trust the larger sample So I wanted that Finau plus 210 to get a top 20 at the open this week Even when you include those two bad events Finau still ranks 24th in the field and strokes him off the tee And 27th in approach over the past 50 rounds according to fantasy national He ranks seventh around the green. So He checks that box, which is something we talk about with with rom zander Can't lay guys who are good in all three of the key facets outside of putting the putter is different In general Finau is not a good putter, but his best surface is bank grass Which is the surface at royal st. George's he ranks 58th in bank grass putting over the past 100 rounds so That means that the putting will be less of a concern here than it is in a lot of other places If you look at the past six months Finau ranks 22nd in data golf's true strokes gained metric Which is something brand was talking about that accounts for Field strength, but it also accounts for his rough two events and his issues on the greens Those are baked into that number. He ranks 22nd there And that's encouraging for me for a top 20 bet one of the miscuts for Finau came at the us open He lost 2.5 strokes there. So it was rough and that was in a tough field So that could be a concern for Finau this week, but he was eighth in the pga championship He was tenth at the masters as Brandon mentioned. He's played 21 majors in 2015 on And Finau finished top 20 and 12 out of those 21 Which is a 57 clip his implied odds here at 32 percent That includes three top 20 finishes in four shots at the open championship He's been top 10 in each of the past two So he can he can handle a link style course where the greens are just massive That's okay for tony finau because the ball striking is generally so good I don't think we should let two bad events push us off what appears to be A really good value on finau at plus 210 to finish inside the top 20 So I think to me that's the proper market here for tony finau You could go with with the outright brand and did allude to that as being a long shot He likes but to me I think given, you know the narrative around finau not being able to finish It's not about that for me. It's more so about I want more leeway if the putter is not Hot for finau I want that leeway and I think that a top 20 bet gives me that leeway So tony finau plus 210 is where I want to turn for this week to finish that inside the top 20 at the open championship Ed you've heard brandon talk. Uh, we've talked about some tony finau What are you thinking for your betting card this week at the open championship? You got some good thoughts uh ruminate over there Yeah, I I haven't made any bets yet. So I don't quite want to talk about them, but I 90 that'll be in my newsletter this week, but uh Yeah, tony finau is interesting to me because uh, Joe pita is an analyst Data guide that wrote a preview of the masters in 2019 and he had finau as his favorite to to win and finau made the final group On the last day didn't end up winning because winning golf tournaments is hard but My understanding is that finau has kind of dropped off a little bit in the intervening time But it's still just a really good fantastic golfer all around So, um, I don't know. Maybe I'll be looking into the tony finau for for my bet this week I'm not quite sure yet. So since that master is he has been to one two three four five six seven eight nine majors He has one two three four five top tens. So He's not like a he's not towards the top of the odds board, which I think he was He wasn't the favorite obviously entering a gusx. I think that was that his debut year where he Broke his ankle. Basically. No, that's 2018. I believe it's his first and 2017 is his first masters For 2018 was his first masters and he finished top 10 there after he like dislocated his ankle the day before He's not quite on that same level necessarily, but he's still you know a top 20 golfer worldwide I think that we get that for plus two ten to finish top 20 I'll take that so we'll see if tony finau can crack the email newsletter this week over at the power rank dot com Ed what is what else is going on for you this week over there? Uh, yeah, so most of that newsletter sign up at the power rank dot com Probably golf this week. I want to promise golf, but you never know what happens between now and tomorrow morning When I end up writing it, um, and then yeah, I mean we'll be getting into football soon. So there'll be a lot of uh The emails will almost exclusively be american football pretty soon Definitely when we get to august And then on the football analytics show I had brendan ken on he is the host of the measureables pod Does a lot of he actually works at draft kings, uh, but we talk more about his work in sports analytics and education for sports analytics And deanna really fascinating story about how he got a job with the Portland timbers as an undergrad So a really good episode there check that out over at the football analytics show Perfect and find ed's new letter newsletter at the power rank dot com check out ed on twitter at the power rank Big thank you once again to brandon cadoula for swinging by and breaking down the open championship You can find brandon twitter at cadoula 13 and check out his win simulations and his betting Work over at number fire dot com. I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck with your bets whether it be for Game four the nba finals or for the open championship and we'll talk to you once again next week This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network Aaron dolin here. Thanks for watching and make sure you click below on that subscribe button for more great Fan dual content and check out some of our latest uploads and playlists right over here