 All right, it's a great pleasure to be here as you can tell I've adapted the same dressing style and then you have which is Dark colors, which I guess is a good thing for me I work as a futurist many of you may have a question what that even is Clearly being a futurist is a strange profession because after all nobody knows the future What I do is a futurist and with my company called the Futures Agency is that we try not to predict stuff But to develop four sides of what's coming. I've been doing this for roughly about ten years. I've written five books Most of my time the last ten years has been spent on media content internet and telecom This saying is sort of in a nutshell at the purpose of looking at the future is to disturb the present And I can't tell you how many people that I talked to especially from media companies who are deeply disturbed by what's happening now And in the future just look at the music business. I used to be a musician and producer And the last ten years in the music business have bought a decline of seventy four percent of revenues Not because people don't like music But because of the change of what's happening in society and consumption If you want to follow me on Twitter, I have two handles one is G Leonhard Which is my more tech and media stuff and then a green futurist is my my green handle So in a nutshell, this is my job Listening to what's happening. There's a Chinese saying that says if you want to know about the future listen to your children And they can't be more true than that They know the future because we don't have time to look we're busy making money All right, so this is a big issue for us is that we we actually know the future But are we paying attention? We work with hundreds of clients all over the place big companies technology companies media companies big brands and So on let me dive in last year One of my clients is telecom Indonesia and last year I was lucky enough to go to Bali And I went to this fabulous place in Bali and I'm sitting on the beach. Okay. I noticed every 40 minutes There's a bunch of people coming down the beach collecting plastic garbage Right. I mean, this is the most beautiful place in the world really Bali, right? You go on there and you're sitting on the beach and 850 tons of plastic garbage goes into rivers and the oceans in Bali a day So We have a wicked problem as people say I think in England rather than America Well, we have a we have a really difficult problem That's all the stuff that we're doing is is basically creating a huge amount of really bizarre situations For example having a beautiful place, but people throwing in a way garbage in this way We have a lot of issues here and this is a thing I fished out of tumbler the other day It says 10 years ago. We had Steve Jobs Bob Hope and Johnny Cash very American of course now We have no jobs no hope no cash So a lot of people are deeply worried about this because you know, we're in a huge period of change I mean this is occupied Wall Street movement is not just about a bunch of people talking about that They get the short end of the stick, right? There's a lot of stuff behind these discussions So if you're worried about the future check out this short clip I found the other day as fishing around about worried about the future. So take out this clip from Dodger Post 2050 simply breathtaking over nine billion people global mass consumption Climate change is accelerating The rapid growth of world trade sets the pace for business and the economy Fast transport networks supply the world with more and more goods The planet is running hot Even the systematic exploitation of natural resources cannot satisfy the appetite Let's stop here because you guys all know what I'm talking about. I mean, there's plenty of scenarios that can scare you quite deeply I mean if you just watch the the former or the current chief of science for NASA speaking at Ted right talking about what's basically coming 97% of the population around the world believes that climate change is real and 93% of scientists have believed that it's real this has really changed from the last a few decades And basically I think we're moving in our society from this view of basically that whatever makes money is fine Which is deeply ingrained of course now as a society, right? I mean in in our lives which basically is this scenario to a scenario of saying okay The next step really is a different emphasis not on green per se, right? But on survival right and on having a different way of looking for how the world can be developed So this is a huge substantial change. There's a great book. You should read the third industrial revolution By Jeremy Rifkin. Okay, he says in this book some very very serious stuff And this is really puts down the point he says basically what's happening now the conjoining of internet communication technology and renewable energy is bringing rise to the third industrial revolution He says there's hundreds of millions of human beings that will be able to generate their own energy in their homes offices and share it This is the key word right this sounds like Napster or something right sharing energy feeding it sharing it into the grid He calls this the intergrid like the internet And this is one of the key points I think basically if we're looking at this direction that we can basically see what we have here is the convergence of this kind Of internet philosophy and internet technology and renewable energy are called the intergrid Now clearly, I mean if we see what's happening with the internet now pretty soon There'll be five billion people connected right if we can have the same happening with energy and and water and resources And of course other things, you know that should be quite Amazing futures. I think we're moving from to a future where we have less Empires in the sense of you know the top not even the 1% less than the 1% to moving the world of Networks I don't mean Facebook with this. I mean Facebook is just an example But Facebook is the biggest broadcaster in the world now I'm broadcasting us to each other and Facebook is a second biggest country in the world. It's almost as big as China When Facebook goes public they become a real country, right? I mean they they become a country and many people are worried about that Facebook may be somewhat distorted into just ooke or something whatever because Clearly that Facebook is looking at the same issues, you know, what do you do when you have this much power and this much data from people? So in a way, you know, this is one of my key terms that I use a lot of my clients. We're moving to a network society The society that's basically completely interconnected. We can't make money without the other guys making money Look at the business models of eBay Amazon Google Skype Twitter and so on right It's all interconnected our society is now moving to a place of what Jeremy Rifkin calls lateral power Lateral power meaning power that goes like this right rather than like this I mean just ten years ago. We had big telephone companies big banks big insurance companies big governments Right, we saw the government's big media companies all over some what's happening is companies are growing like this, right? I mean Google is a big company, but it's not a company like universal music or Walt Disney It's much more decentralized and networked and So a couple examples, you know in a key allows people to borrow money to each other through an online network So you can actually fund somebody in Africa getting alone. You may have seen this guys flip board You guys may be using a decentralized way of getting content If we're looking at this direction, we basically have things like the the smart grid which feeds back stuff, right? It's basically idea of lateral power rather than centralized power and This is a fundamental business change as well, right because in centralized power It's it's all at the center rather than having a benefit for absolutely everyone So as an example, you know if you're a little hard to see these stats, right? But basically the internet has had an explosive growth the last few years if you're looking at the curves of data And all the other stuff. I mean it's mind-boggling and I think what's going to happen is that the very near future Renewable energy will grow even faster than the internet Because clearly it's one one is of course depending on the other right because we have the internet We can actually change information in exchange funding as well So this growth is absolutely mind-boggling if you're looking at some of these stats also taken from Jeremy's book Saying that basically the decline of cost of photovoltaic energy is 8% a year Half in the cost and the center university studies saying that 20% of the available wind Could provide seven times the electricity that we need the power that we need around the planet I mean these things are obvious to all of us, right? But what does it mean? How can we change the system to actually work? I think Clearly, that's why you guys are here WWS Wind, Water, Sun Is the future of energy? It's the future of the planet and I'm not talking about in any philosophical way, right? This is clearly a business proposition as well as a political proposition so Basically what what's happening here and the internet has shown this that we're moving to a global sharing economy Okay car sharing was mentioned earlier the sharing proposition is everywhere I mean on the web, of course we share music we share information we share YouTube we share files You know we have Dropbox and so on information ideas energy MIT has already put all of their courses online called MIT course where you can study at MIT online and not pay This information is everywhere in the same thing will happen with energy and the very near future a new ecosystem based on shared resources Now Many of you may be saying well sharing and you know this question and capital and we're not talking about socialism here, right? And clearly socialism has failed I mean this is not a proposal of that sort of sharing It's the idea of saying well shared resources really is a very very big part of what we're doing today Kevin Kelly the co-founder of wild magazine He calls us the shared human awareness That we now have because we're all interconnected if you're looking at other things car sharing We've talked about this already Airbnb where you can share your house with others and then in return rent theirs Amazing place if you are going on vacation Sharing apps like Nike plus and path where you can share your running information with other people I mean their sharing is everywhere Spotify was a music service. You can share with your friends shared electric grids. I mean clearly Rachel Boatsman calls this the collaborative consumption She wrote a great book called what is yours or what is mine is yours? And this is a clear trend, you know collaborating to consume together He calls it. Oops. Sorry. I want to show this. She calls this a collaborative consumption going away from hyper consumption This is clearly a key trend that we're seeing moving to reputation and shared assets I mean, this is of course puts the fear of God into media companies, right? Because sharing is not good for them. I Mean, let's let's face that the reality is that if we're all sharing resources and ideas and three billion people are coming Online the next few years in Africa, India and China. That's not good news for people who are not sharing And we know we're talking about big companies that are currently running the energy system right collaborative consumption is a threat I mean if we're looking at all these examples car sharing I the biggest factor in the car industry today is the rise of car sharing and the second biggest You wouldn't guess is self-driving cars self-driving electric cars. What does that have to do with the car business? Airlines are now looking at virtually flying people What does it have to do with their with airplanes? Not much, right? But clearly that's the future that we're looking at peer-to-peer decentralized YouTube basically killed MTV in two years. We still have MTV, but it's anybody watching I mean the kids are all watching YouTube and we are watching YouTube But it's decentralized is us making the program and I think we're going to see exactly the same thing an energy Going the idea from a central grid To the idea of a decent regret the producer consumer feeding power back into the grid Very much the same concept that we're seeing here Now I think there's a great movie you should watch is called connected the movie by Tiffany Schlein She talks about how our entire society is moving to the place of being independent You know silos essentially and big monopolis and cartels to a society of being interdependent Interconnected and I think this will be a huge challenge for us to change our business model to also be interdependent And I would encourage you to look down this direction rather than the direction of independence We used to all be like this right companies who are Broadcasters sending out their information sending out their business models now. We're all like this We're decentralized. We're talking to each other. We're figuring out how to collaborate. We're crowdsourcing I mean if you see all the trends in business clearly, that's a huge threat So as Marshall McLoone said we can be in a global village, which he said 1971 and Marshall McLoone was actually talking about Facebook in 1971 the global village, right? So here's a choice you can make Consumers need to make very soon. Do they want to live in a global village or a global desert? I mean that is our choice It's a stark reality that we have to face basically that is what we're looking at so Algora said the bills are coming due it says environmental costs of providing what's called ecosystem services are there was 1999 I think already at four trillion dollars I think it's up to six trillion dollars what the environment has to bear to sustain our business activities This cost are coming due in Einstein says, you know, we cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we use to create them Tell that our politicians right tell that people who are making those decisions a fraction of the money spend on military on Having a new ecosystem of renewable energy and renewable resources right would solve all of these problems. I Mean clearly this is not a question of whether it works or not or whether we need it or not It's a question of deciding so I Think so-called Externalities, you know the external cost that we haven't covered must become part of the P&L the profit and loss statement of each company So Puma has done this and they said they're going to calculate the cost of the ecosystem into the price of their products Of course, you know if you do that and you have this right? I mean clearly if you do that it gets a lot more expensive I mean this is why the Chinese airlines don't want to pay the carbon fair when they come to Europe, right? Because it gets more expensive, but do we have a choice? I mean clearly we have to calculate the cost of these so-called externalities and that's going to happen in the next couple of years and I think the European Union is taking a lead Which is a good thing in this respect. I Think we're going to see the end of what are called short-termism Our awry is the holy grail, right? I mean basically Companies think on a quarterly level if they're on the stock market maybe a half-year level or even a year, right? But it's all about return on money and That will kill us and that is killing us I mean clearly if we are investing on this turf you need to have a long-term plan All right three to five year plan and longer than that and I think that's going to become a standard I think essentially game over for short-term planning and I would say That in a couple years three to three to five years from now the stock market is going to reward companies Who are not saying we're going to grow the next quarter of the next year who are not saying that you have continuous growth? just because you have to have growth and Brings me to a sore subject, you know clearly Global warming is the biggest market failure in history. I mean if you're arguing that there's a business opportunity in fixing a problem But it's not being fixed. I mean clearly we have a business problem here. We have climate change. We have global warming So why hasn't it been addressed? Can a free market do that? Address such a large problem Can we grow our way out? This is of course a very American thing You know I live in Switzerland now, but I used to live in America for 17 years So I've become half Americanized right in America you'd say well if there's a problem Let's apply resources. We'll get a bunch of investors then we make lots of money and we solve the problem But can we grow our way out of this? I mean this is a serious question that we have to ask you know Maslow said when the only tool is you own is a hammer Everything looks like a nail We have to question our toolbox there as well and in America, of course many people are feeling this way now Say basically this is putting the gun to our head to make money with whatever we're doing, right? So I would put that out as an open question But clearly there is a connection between the rise of global temperatures global warming and The expanding middle class. I mean look at those two graphs Look at how temperatures have gone up the last couple years and how the middle class is expanding man Clearly we have a huge challenge here. This is not a challenge of technology Unless you have a magic wand that can solve this problem in a decade So there's four different approaches here many of you are working on this I think they're all going to be a mix back in the future. We have companies dealing with efficiency, which is must be done There's a great approach to this we have game changes magic wands. I'll explain that in a minute We have to face reduced consumption. I Mean the solution to air traffic and having less pollution through airplanes is not Necessarily to have better engines, which is part of it, right, but is to not fly Well, I mean I should be talking right I have to fly more now and not less And then we have sustainability Those four things are going to mix and solve the problem in the future But it won't be either one of the by those things by themselves Here's a game changer. There's no sound on this. This is Dean Cayman He's an inventor in San Francisco. He just invented a box from called the sling box And this thing can take any water source not radioactive But anything you know I can have animals in it if you want it makes a thousand liters of water a day from any source any source any Any murky water or whatever you've got Okay, it to a vaporizer mechanism Coca-Cola has invested in this company now. They want to roll out this box worldwide to solve the water problem This is what I call a magic wand. You know, this is like, you know carbon sequestration same sort of idea Or the space elevator to capture sun energy, right? Those are magic ones. How real they are? I don't know we'll find out but I think we'll need to fund more of those game changers We have to put more money into people inventing radical stuff. I mean, there's lots of it out there So money needs to shift there and I think it has to be public money and private money, of course both But clearly also this will be part of our future. There's Patagonia with the biggest ad campaign in 2007 2010 Was don't buy this jacket Why would somebody who sells something have a campaign says don't buy what I would I sell? I? Mean that sounds kind of like you go to a beer garden and says don't drink beer But this campaign has worked right has worked for Patagonia as a brand now they sell on eBay they use stuff So consumption clearly is an issue that we also have to face I think we're looking at a rebooting of capitalism and again just to clarify This is nothing you do with alternatives to capitalism, right? But a different shape of it I mean, there's if you look at the buzz last three months, you know, this is why I'm writing my next book It's called from ego to eco It's all this debate about how this cost could possibly work We're looking at you know clearly the book by Omer Hague the capitalist manifesto What Al Gore has been saying about sustainable capitalism, right? This is a major challenge to the system The system of money system of business the system of investment the system of countries So I think what's going to happen there in the very Near futures that we all have to put up with this question. How can we have capitalism that is actually sustainable? tough question So in this regard I Think what's going to happen on x5 is I said this before Sustainable becomes the new profitable Basically in five years every person every politician every company every businessman every futurist every author Everybody will be judged by how sustainable their approach is to what they're doing This will completely flip today. It's sort of an optional thing, right? If you're looking at big companies like unilever procter and gamble and so on they're making a huge effort wall mart in the u.s Right to do this already this will become a total standard and if you don't do it He will not be rewarded by your shareholders It's going to flip upside down from what we have today Environment equality human rights what's called thick value inequality, so Peter the amand is in his book abundance that you should read You know, he's the guy who does the x-prison quite an interesting character. He has a great video out and on the tat channel Okay, he says basically in the next few years. We're going to have another three billion people coming online Which brings a boost of ideas and energy into the system? This should be a boon for innovation not just for consumption, right? And basically he says what three billion minds can do, you know create discover desire invent This is a huge opportunity for all of us to tap into Umair Hague talks in his book about how value chains have to become value cycles Right and this is going to be a challenge. I mean Looking at traditional business, you know, you have a chain of value and most of that gets stuck on one end Which is what I do, right? But now in the future we're looking at a system to where we have to invent stuff that comes around that goes in cycles All right, that comes a hundred percent back So the trend for example for companies to build buildings with solar energy and so on that can be completely self-contained And off the grid actually feed power back into the grid, right? Same idea So value chains to value cycles, I think that's going to be our future Looking at what you know lever has done for example, it says they're committed to three outcomes by 2020 It's one of my clients. So just to divulge this 1 billion people to take Action to improve the health and well-being 100 percent of agricultural sustainably what they're sourcing So they have big golds there a big big hairy gold And clearly that's going to happen in all industries in all companies in all countries So just as the internet is distributed And decentralized the future of power is the same distributed collaborative transparent Why does not every single home have a smart grid where I can watch on my iPhone what I'm consuming that should be a requirement Right to make me aware of what I'm doing. You may have heard about the so-called prios effect When you try for prios, which is not a very good car, you know, I have a Lexus, but it's same engine, right? You can't really do much with it in terms of speeding or having fun, right? So what you're doing is you're watching how low of a consumption you have That's called the prios effect And then you're sharing with others So there's millions of people already sharing their driving results online and competing who can drive the cheapest That's called the prios effect We need the prios effect in our homes in our lives where we can compare actually and help each other out to Risk certain gold just like Nike plus does it for runners so Ray Kurzweil says a kid in Africa with a smartphone has more information today than the president of the us 15 years ago We have to use that information To drive this process of change We have to look at things that we can do their future of power clearly is as we have seen In that process of connecting with others So as a comparison You'll see some very interesting points here The future of media newspapers Music films is the same thing, right? All of a sudden it's distributed. It's collaborative There's like a dozen different things or 50 different 100 different things that make money Not just one thing So this is a very good parallel. I think that we should entertain here So one of my key words here is that we're moving from a society of hyper competition You know, I'm 50 years old. So I you know, I was actually part of that old system in parentheses, right? We are hyper compete down to the destruction of the other party Today we have to hyper collaborate to the benefit of all parties and there's a huge shift here, right? Also because of speed I mean Clearly the issues we're facing are not issues of one country one company one city There we have to hyper collaborate So here we have a development to where we can clearly say and this is a reflection of what's happening on the web Trust is the new currency Are people going to trust your company with your innovation? What you're rolling out to change the situation are they going to trust your opinion? Remember for example in the us Where I do a lot of speaking if you mentioned the word climate change You're off the stage right Because you just can't mention it It's too. It's like saying you know saying something bizarre from your sex life or something you get kicked off the stage Because it's a no-no topic Because of the distortion of trust around the topic of whether it's true I mean clearly of course It's just as true as that facebook is a country that we have climate change so Trust being the new the new Currency now trust also requires transparency. You may have seen this video from fedex Here's a guy delivering a package was last week And nobody's there, but his security camera is on So the guy goes and drops the computer monitor over the fence, right? And this was put up on the internet from the guy, of course He had watched the whole time Right and there were eight million views in about 13 hours Right and the stock went down. They had this huge thing, right? And here's another video from a peaceful demonstration in Sacramento, California on the Occupy movement And the policeman steps up without like you know doling out the The wine and church he doles out the pepper spray And this kind of transparency we're going to see everywhere basically The entire world is transparent now So you as a company have to be part of this movement. This is a major change to us So a quick summary and maybe we have time for some questions So my main theory is we're moving from an ego society an economy To an eco society from an ecosystem to an ecosystem Not eco in the sense of green necessarily in the sense of connected In the sense of interdependent and of course in the sense of ecological We're moving to a site here where we have an intergrid just like we have the internet And this is a trillion dollar opportunity, of course clearly But a huge shift of paradigm because it goes two ways From the network to the network Renewable energy will be grow growing faster than the internet This is going to be quite a challenge. I think for many countries many people Windwater Sun is the future Hyperconsumption replaced by collaborative consumption I mean imagine what that will do is the idea of saying that we don't own cars. We don't own houses We we share them and we temporary lend them out idea of lateral power That really changes our business processes global warming as a market failure And defining sustainable capitalism. I mean this clearly is our job, right? I mean, how do we make money with this? We can't lose money with all of it, right? But how do we sustain it? And this is clearly going to be a key question From hyper collaboration to hyper Hyper competition to hyper collaboration. This is a very important topic. I think for the future value chains to value cycles And in the end, this is the overriding topic. So I want to thank you very much