 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Happy Saturday. Hope everybody is doing great. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com. We can update show. If you are brand new to the channel, thank you very much again to spending a few moments with us to kind of go through the markets, kind of share my thoughts of what I believe is happening, where the market potentially can go, and always do it in a very unbiased, most important adult and professional way. All we ask is like, right? Just like the video. If you're watching it, it takes a second. Like the video, subscribe if you're not so already, and share. If you feel it can give somebody more value. So let's talk about the market, right? So going back three weeks ago, okay, when the market was in a pretty aggressive sell-off, and again, not going through the loves of even watching this broadcast, you kind of know every single level that we talked about, you know, confirm the next level so forth and so on. And around here, which was the October 26 lows, all you hear, all you saw was the market is in turmoil, the market is the worst, the market, the market, the market, the market, this isn't the worst, this will never, market will never go up again. At the same time in October the 26th, the QQQs were still up 29.6% for the year. Right? So the worst market of all time was still up nearly 30% after a pretty aggressive sell-off from the top of the channel from the October of the 12 highs. Let's keep this in mind that October 12th level, which we talked about for the last couple of days. And just what we talk about all the time, this is what happened kind of during, and I don't want to compare the same, I don't want to compare the time zones, but when you go back into history, right, in the mortgage mess from 2007 to 2009, around 2009, people were just saying, well, what's going to get this market ever to go up again? Okay, this is the absolute worst thing ever. And that's the cool thing about it. Okay, eventually sellers get tired. They just do. Eventually sellers get tired in the same way during the dot-com era when the market was just going through the roof every single day, the buyers got tired. Soldiers got tired around 2009. And just like that, we put in a generational bottom. We literally put in a generational bottom, and then we rallied basically for the next 11 years. I mean, that's pretty amazing to the 2020 pandemic. So the coolest thing about the tape is it doesn't have to make sense. We kind of reiterate this point every single day. You don't need to rationalize it. Stop trying to guess. Stop trying to analyze what you think the macroeconomic view versus the trading view is about. Again, the market has nothing to do. I know it sounds weird. The market has nothing to do with Main Street America. Again, if you told me in 2020, we're going to be logged down for a month, right? You think the market will go to zero. We were all-time highs only 30, 45 days later. So you got to be very open-minded about this business and just realize, hey, you know what? You're not going to figure it out. You don't need to figure it out. You don't need to figure out where technically the market potentially could go next, whether it's long, short, or distribution, but that's your goal. And if you're a brand new, if you're absolutely brand new to the technical analysis, again, you could really, really see what they talk about at V-bottom, right? This wasn't a U-bottom. This was a V-bottom. This was literally an area that the market stopped. There was actually no technical reason why it stopped. It stopped literally shy of the 200-day moving average and just sellers got gassed out. And once we reclaimed the 50-day moving average, that big area, we talked about that 364 level. Everything changed, right? All I got to do is go back into, just go back to videos from a week ago, a week and a half ago, that we talked about the 50-day moving average is the birth of the trend. And we're getting that trend. We're getting a phenomenal, phenomenal move year to date. This market was just going absolutely nuts. I checked the figures this morning. Year to date, the cues are up 42.1%. One year, they're up nearly 34%. That's staggering. That's absolutely staggering. The earnings are coming in pretty mixed. You have some really great earnings winners this year. This quarter, excuse me, names like Microsoft, names like Amazon, right? They're really doing really, really well. AMD had a great quarter and it's rallying as well. All the semiconductors, if you look at the SMHs, semiconductors are going nuts. But the point is leadership is continuing to build this momentum and continuing to build this momentum into a holiday traditional, doesn't happen every single year. But going to a holiday traditional bullish stage, you can really feel the energy of the market. You can really feel the dynamics. So even this week, again, let's talk about some levels. If you watched the video just in the last three, four days, we talked about big levels. We talked about potential rejection off this initial 373.70, 374 level. We got that. We got that rejection. We had a nice pullback into the five-day moving average and the bearers had an opportunity to make this a multi-day back test and they didn't do it. The bulls held the five-day moving average and the level that we talked about. It was on Tuesday's video or Monday's video, that pregnant pause where we got initially rejected. That pregnant pause I talked about, well, the bulls finally reclaimed that on Friday. They reclaimed back that big level and just absolutely exploded. And here we are. And if you look at the monthly charts, look at the monthly charts. Friday, the NASDAQ went up 2%. Huge move. That went up 400 points. But if you look at now the monthly, and this is kind of where you start looking at the potential big picture, especially if you're an investor, you start realizing that, hey, we're not that far anymore from all-time highs. The next big level that the Qs need to reclaim is this 388 level. Granted, it's still 10 points away. But look at the monthly view. This is the monthly view and if they could reclaim back the 388 level, then we're going back to 400. That 408.71 is all-time highs. And look at the correlation between the strong leaders. Look at Microsoft, guys. We're all-time highs on Microsoft. This is definitely top three most important stock in the NASDAQ 100. Look at a name, for example, like Apple. Again, these are the leaders. Apple just broke a monthly. When you look at the five-day moving average, this is the monthly version of the five-day moving average. This is the first close over a monthly bar of 171. 171, this is a big, big deal. So you have a lot of room now to all-time highs. The question is, can the bulls continue? That's the only question. Can the bulls continue? Is this a scenario that we potentially can get gassed out? And listen, I think the bulls did a great job from Thursday's backtest. Like I said, I think the bears, they dropped the ball. They fumbled it. They could have literally the next day, Friday, confirmed the five-day moving average. We would have had a very efficient backtest back to the 50-day, but they didn't do that. And that's a major, major thing. Going into this week, you have CPI numbers. You got CPI numbers and other read and inflation. Everybody, keep this in mind. This is a great point. This is why Wall Street and Main Street disconnects. This is all happening as inflation is still through the roof. Keep this in mind. This is a big, big deal. So this is the whole point of why you don't need to worry about what makes sense, what's rational or irrational. The market is always going to be disconnected sometimes from reality. And when you look at the next big levels here, the cues, the next area for the bears to try to fight them off, is going to be this 83-81 lumbel. That's the next supply zone. That correlates basically with the September 1 highs of a 380-40. And if you look at the Bollinger Band, it kind of correlates pretty nicely here. That's that 380-50s level. So that's basically where the next mini battle will take place. As there are possibility, there's a little bit of a break in that 380 and a half level. Yeah, probably. Because again, if you look at the Bollinger Bands, that's where stocks get stopped. You see right here, you could tell July 19th they hit the Bollinger Band in reverse. Right here, September the 1st hit the Bollinger Band in reverse. Here is October the 12th, we hit the Bollinger Band in reverse. So the next potential area that the bears, if you are in that game of trying to pick a top or at least a tradable soft landing rejection or soft top rejection, it's going to be somewhere around that 380 and a half, 380-1 level to take a short position if you feel and if you believe these Bollinger Bands hold. And again, you can clearly see it with your eyes. So Bolls look like 380 and a half magnet. If you want to try for a day trade to get a potential short position in that 380 and a half, 380-1 level, you could use in the high of days, you stop. But right now, the Bolls look incredibly strong and very, very aggressive. Again, all you need to do is look at the individual names. In the video, we talked about from the 50-day moving hours, there was a potential. The video could get to 477 before earnings. Yeah, they got that. And they also went all the way to 485, right? So the video keeps on going higher. Now, you're seeing a report on the 21st of November. They're coming for the 505 calls. They're bypassing the 490s, the 495s. They're coming for the 500, 505 calls. Again, the euphoria is real. And the market is definitely fueling the fire to people who are still trying to guess where a top is. At least on the cues, we had a tradable top that we talked about, right? On Tuesday's video that we traded off and it got rejected. That was at least an area. So again, if you are going to trade the QQQs into a potential tradable pause, another tradable pregnant pause, it's going to be in that 380, 380 and a half, 380 and a half, 381 level. Until then, you want to continue to buy dips. Any week open, bulls are still trapping bears. It's the most amazing thing. We keep on talking about it from the 50-day moving average that as soon as that we reclaimed that every dip needs to be bought into rise of support. That's why these stocks continue to take, put on higher highs and higher lows because they're cheap on trapping shorts that are anticipating, oh, this is it. This is the top and market will finally go down. So very, very aggressive market. The hardest part about this tape is trying to find stocks that are not overextended, right? I mean, again, everybody doesn't want to miss that euphoric train ride and NVIDIA and Microsoft and they're going crazy, right? We talked about Meta a couple of days ago that it's finally coming out of arrangement. Look at a little bit Meta bit. Man, look at what Meta did on Friday. Finally came out of that range is absolutely exploded. I like Meta. If this market continues, as much as Meta went from all the way down to 379 to 330 in only like two weeks, there is a point of reference of those 10, 12 highs that eventually if it tests and the market keeps on going, this looks ready to rumble. Starbucks is consolidating really nicely after its earnings. Watch this thing for the next couple of days. Maybe this thing starts waking up as well. DDOG had a really nice quarter, right? Really nice quarter, put in a big move. Now it's going sideways. Keep an eye on this thing for the next leg up. Look at the home builders, right? Everybody's talking about the market's gonna crash. 8% interest rate. Look at Lennar, right? Look at Lennar. Lennar looks phenomenal. Lennar had a huge move is going sideways now. If Lennar starts building back up, this thing could run off, you know, run away as well. The only one, amazing to say, the only one who's not participating has been Tesla. Tesla's been a phenomenal short in the last three days. As much as the market has gone crazy, the last 24 hours on Tesla has been phenomenal. We caught this 415 breakdown. If the stock went all the way down to 206, we took it overnight on the close. Pre-market, we're covering the stock down into 206s. Then the stock started rallying. We had a sneaky entry, green to red, took out 208, and this damn thing went all the way down to 205. There is something wrong with this. I'm gonna get it. I think CIBC made some negative comments on this thing, but you know, this is what really shows you that individual process is much more important than where the directional market is going. You can definitely find stocks that you trade on a daily basis that are completely disconnected from reality. You know, the funniest thing is, you know, you saw the big headline, or maybe you didn't see the big headline, but there was a headline after the close on Friday, and that is Moody's cuts US outlook to negative citing deficits and political polarization. Okay, whatever, right? This was three weeks ago. The Nasdaq 100 would be down 1, 1.5% after the close. The Q's were down 30% after the close. 30 cents, that's it. Sometimes the market sentiment is going to be more important than the actual news. News is important, of course. News is important, but the key is how the market perceives the news and how price action moves on the news. And you know, you saw the reaction for this Moody's cut in the US outlook, the negative, a 30 cent decline after hours on the Q's after an eight and a half dollar move in the regular session. So the market continues to be good. How long is this gonna last? We'll see. Take it day by day. I always say, you know, again, I don't know where the market's gonna be a week from now, a month from now. I take it day by day. The symbols that we just talked about, I'm definitely interested in going into this week, the metas of the world, you know, metas of the world, the lennars of the world. They look very, very interesting as well. But the key is again, just take a breath. Okay, don't try to anticipate. Don't guess if you've been watching this broadcast. You see how methodically I approach the markets day to day, it's level by level. And if a level gets rejected, well, the market's gonna go lower. If the market starts reclaiming that level, yeah, that's the whole point of technical analysis. It doesn't, you don't need to guess. If we were, you know, if this was a guessing business, I would be, you know, I'd be sweeping floor somewhere. And I wouldn't be doing this because, you know, again, things go 50-50. It's like betting, you know, betting a basketball game, money line. One team's gonna win and one team's gonna lose. So guessing is not trading, it's guessing. That's the whole point. So going into this week, guys, continue to be diligent. Just always be aware of overextended names. And again, there's a lot of overextended names, but they just keep on going. Try to take those overextended names into weakness. That's where the biggest value is. Because if they continue to hold the bottom range, they do trap and they continue to go higher. We'll see, we'll see. Earnings for this week. Let me just look at some of the earnings. I know in the video, reports, reports on the 21st. So you have Monday, you have nobody really big. Monday, nobody really big. Tuesday, you got Home Depot. We're running out of names here. Home Depot. Wednesday, you got Pan W, Cisco, Target, TJ Max. Thursday, you got Walmart, Alibaba, Amat, William Sonoma. Yeah, we're running out. The next week will be a lot bigger, a lot bigger as well. You got Zoom for the next, the following Monday. And Tuesday is gonna be the big one, right? It's gonna be the big one. It's gonna be Nvidia. After this 100 point run up in the last two weeks, we'll see what happens there. But anyway, guys, have a great, great weekend. Get some rest. It is Saturday mornings around quarter to 11. Again, I don't know when you guys will be watching the video or when the video's gonna be out, but hopefully you guys continue to mature, continue to get better, continue to be better human beings, continue to be more, more better understanding, more empathetic people. And that's the most important part. Health, happiness and kindness will never go out of style. Guys, God bless, have a great weekend and I will see you all on Monday. Take care.